Tag Archives: #REDSOX

McHale’s Musings Vol. 4: A Whirlwind Week

Leave a reply

Wow, what a whirlwind this week has been in the world of sports. The past seven days were filled with ups and downs, great wins and brutal losses, and everything in between. Let’s get right to my takes for the week!

Red Sox

  • I’m man-crushing hard on Alex Cora. Did you see that man strut his way up the Brookline Avenue Bridge on the way to his introductory press conference? What a badass. I’m hopeful he’ll inject the Red Sox clubhouse with some much needed enthusiasm.

  • If the rumors are true, and free agent outfielder J.D. Martinez is looking for a long-term deal upwards of $200 million dollars, I’m out. Do I think Martinez would be a good fit for this ballclub? Sure. However, I’m not pulling the trigger on a player 30 years of age or older.
  • Happy Birthday, Giancarlo Stanton. There are so many ways to celebrate future birthdays in the city of Boston. Click here for ideas! See you soon?
  • Mitch Moreland, we hardly knew ye.

Celtics

  • A 10 game winning streak is nice.

  • I’ve never seen someone handle the basketball as gracefully as Kyrie Irving. As much as I think he’s an odd character (Did he really go back to the flat earth theory?), he’s one of the most entertaining Celtics players in recent memory.
  • I’m already intensely infatuated with this Celtics team. They are, for my money, head and shoulders more interesting than last year’s group.
  • Jason Tatum is going to crush it in the NBA.

Patriots

  • John Lynch, you’re one crazy S.O.B.

  • Sorry, but the Patriots did not win the Jimmy G. trade. I know, I know. How dare I question The Hoodie. In Bill We Trust. I just don’t think New England managed the Garoppolo situation well at all.
  • Truthfully, I’m not a fan of Brian Hoyer.
  • I’d love to see the Pats snag Martellus Bennett off waivers tomorrow. The offense could use another passing option with so many key injuries. Dwayne Allen has been a bust, and Jacob Hollister has been…well…Jacob Hollister.

Bruins

  • Oh vey, it’s going to be a long year.

  • David Pastrnak, the $40 Million Dollar Man, needs to get it together.

Revolution

  • I’ll have more on this story later, but if the New England Revolution were hoping to reignite the wavering passion of their fan base, the rumored hire of Brad Friedel isn’t going to get the job done.

Embed from Getty Images

  • Did you know that Friedel was once the roommate of the Revolution’s much-maligned GM, Mike Burns? Normally, I wouldn’t make such a big deal about this little tidbit, but it’s worth questioning the motive for such an uninspired hire.

Miscellaneous

  • Yes, I heard Mike Felger’s rant on Roy Halladay’s tragic passing. It was in poor taste. Without a doubt, it was #toosoon. However, I disagree with the notion that Felger must be suspended, or even fired, for his comments. At the end of the day, he’s playing a role. He’s an antagonizer. It’s how he makes his living. The very nature of sports talk radio requires on-air personalities to deliver takes that are controversial in nature – or at least against the grain. It’s frankly the only thing that separates one show from another. In the never-ending battle for ratings supremacy, it’s no wonder why hosts from both 98.5 and WEEI are continually filling air time with ludicrous remarks. Why is that? They know we’ll be tuning in tomorrow for more.
  • How did A.J. Green avoid suspension for his WWE-style sleeper-hold on Jacksonville CB, Jalen Ramsey? Frankly, he should have to sit a game for stupidly punching a helmet.

  • Do you all remember when the Arena Football League was an up-and-coming alternative to boring summers without the NFL? That was neat.
  • I’ve caved and started watching Stranger Things on Netflix. I “get it” now. Great show!

 

That’s it for me! Until next time…

McHale

Cubs Interested in Benintendi

Leave a reply

Don’t answer the phone.

It’s a foregone conclusion that Theo Epstein is the best GM is baseball. If you didn’t believe it by the time he delivered two World Series trophies in Boston, you have to accept it after what he’s done in Chicago. It’s like global warming, or the Tom Brady GOAT argument, it’s settled science.

When the best GM in baseball is interested in Andrew Benintendi, all you can do is check your caller ID and let it go straight to voice mail. Then delete it, throw away the sim card and change your number.

The total package

Of course Epstein wants Benintendi. He is the total package – great bat, great glove, above average speed and exceptional hair. In 151 games in his rookie campaign, Benny Biceps hit .271, 20 home runs, and 90 RBIs. He slugged .424, stole 20 bags and played above average defense in baseball’s most fickle left field.

He’s 23 years old. He is only going to get better, and his upside projection is Mookie Betts-level. He isn’t yet hitting for the same power he did in the minors (.546 ISO-P/K), but that will come. We saw it in Ellsbury, we’ll see it in Benny.

 

What’s important to Theo

Embed from Getty Images

In a word, value. In baseball terms, value is production over cost. The Cubs, despite their recent splurges in payroll, are not the Yankees or the Dodgers. Epstein understands this as well as he understands sabermetrics. Which is to say, better than basically everyone else in the game.

Epstein is a master of data analytics, recognizing potential and projecting talent better than anyone. He drafted Pedroia in the second round of the 2004 amateur draft, when everyone else in baseball projected him as little more than a utility player.

Theo also drafted Betts, Bogaerts, Bradley and Ellsbury. In Benintendi’s case, Epstein sees high performance, unlimited potential, and manageable cost for years to come.

 

Options

The Cubs have more than enough talent to compensate Boston for Benintendi, but most of that talent isn’t going to be leaving the South Side. Kris Bryant or Anthony Rizzo would provide the kind of corner infield power Boston is lacking, and if either are on the table, the Sox should make a deal. However, neither will be on the table.

Acquiring Kris Bryant (3B) would force a position change with Devers, which given his yips in the field, might not be a terrible idea to consider. Bryant is arbitration eligible and under team control until 2022. At just 25-yrs old, the 2016 NL MVP is not only already better than Benintendi, he is better than Benny projects. He isn’t going anywhere.

Anthony Rizzo (1B) has four years and $47M remaining on his current seven-year deal. At 28, he is at the precipice of his baseball prime – and he is already an elite talent. Rizzo (.273 BA, 32 HR, 109 RBI this year) has a career ISO-P/K of .304. He won a Platinum Glove in 2016, and finished this year with the highest fielding percentage of all NL first basemen.

If Chicago were strapped for cash or bereft of prospects, they could move Rizzo. They’re neither, so they won’t. The most likely marquee player on the table, is left fielder Kyle Schwarber. At 24, Schwarber (.211 BA, 30 HR, 59 RBI this year) was a key contributor to Chicago’s 2016 Championship run.

Embed from Getty Images

 

Just Say No

Schwarber alone wouldn’t be enough. Benintendi is to Schwarber, what Bryant and Rizzo are to Benny – better now, and way better three years from now. At 6’0”/235lbs, Schwarber is also not long for the outfield. He has “future designated hitter” written all over him. There is no value in a Benintendi for Schwarber deal, without much more added in by Chicago.

McHale’s Musings Vol. 2

Leave a reply

Hello again, everyone! Welcome to another edition of “McHale’s Musings.”

There’s been a lot happening in the world of Boston sports, so let’s get right to it!

Patriots

Embed from Getty Images

  • Big-time win over the Falcons last weekend at Gillette. The effort from Matt Patricia’s defense was a stellar reminder of this group’s talent. If they can string together a few solid games, their confidence will grow.
  • Tom Brady is 40. 40!
  • Josh McDaniels needs to continue letting Dion Lewis be more of a factor on offense. He’s a dynamic running back who can stretch out a defense. He’s the ultimate weapon for Brady and Co. if used consistently. #fantasyfootballpickup
  • It sounded like Gillette was rocking on Sunday night. It’s about time! For myriad of reasons, Gillette Stadium is no longer a place opponents fear to visit. However, fans can help make a change. This team needs support from the 65,878 members of Patriots Nation in attendance each and every home game. Perhaps those early losses at the start of the season were a wake up call to fans. Things aren’t going to come easy on this “Blitz for Six.” Fans, you’ll have to do your part to make it happen. Get lubed up!

Celtics

Embed from Getty Images

  • Hello, Kyrie. I’ll like to see your, “Suck my d**k,” and raise you a “Shut up and play.” You are a 25 year old professional athlete. You will be taunted by opposing teams’ fans. You’re the one with all the leverage here. By walking away, you’re making sure you don’t make headline news for all the wrong reasons. Sure, that Philly bro may hop on Instagram Live to boast, “Damn, you won’t believe what I said to Kyrie. He just took it like a chump.” However, I don’t think his 27 followers are going to band together and ruin your reputation. It’s like the world of teaching. Sure, I could rattle off some solid insults mixed with biting sarcasm at the student who refused to work, but what good would that do? At the end of the day, we can only control our own reaction.  Kyrie, I urge you to ignore the taunts and move on with your day.
  • I see you, Jaylen Brown.
  • It’s too early to say that the Celtics made the better move in drafting Tatum over Fultz. With it becoming increasingly clear that Fultz has been hurt to start the season. Let’s give it some time before we declare that Danny Ainge bamboozled the 76ers.
  • Through four games, the C’s are 9th in the league with an average of 46.3 rebounds per game. I’m hopeful that this team will be able to rebound with more efficiency than last year’s squad that finished 27th in the NBA.

Bruins

  • Last weekend’s loss to Buffalo was a colossal failure. Thus far in his tenure as head coach, it appears as though Bruce Cassidy has been unable to strengthen the mental toughness of this hockey club. The 3rd period and subsequent overtime was simply a train wreck. It will be inexcusable defeats such as Saturday’s debacle that prevents this team from making a deep postseason run.
  • What is up with the NHL schedule to start the season? I’m not liking this staggering of games, and I’m willing to bet the players aren’t fans of it either.
  • How good was it to see Bergeron back on the ice? The guy is a warrior through and through. He is Bruins hockey personified. With that said, he’s getting older and deserves to be surrounded by talent that has the potential of winning another Cup. Is he surrounded by that kind of talent now? Time will tell. One thing’s for sure…that kind of crippling loss to Buffalo can’t happen again.

Red Sox

Embed from Getty Images

  • Dustin Pedroia is out seven months after undergoing knee surgery. I get the sneaking suspicion that we’ll soon be reading headlines along the lines of, “Pedroia Hopeful of Returning after All-Star Break.”
  • I love the Alex Cora hiring.
  • While I agree that we shouldn’t give up the farm for Giancarlo Stanton, it would be foolish not to put together a reasonable package for the All-Star slugger. This Red Sox lineup needs power in the worst way. He also has a personality that is sorely missing from the clubhouse after David Ortiz’s retirement. Go for it, Sox!

Revolution

Embed from Getty Images

  • The Revs won a road game! I repeat…The New England Revolution won a road game!
  • In a match that proved to be well worth the watch, the Revolution closed out their disappointing season by finally winning a road match. The win over Montreal helps the team avoid going winless away from Gillette for the first time in franchise history.
  • I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again…Diego Fagundez deserves to be the face of the Revolution. This young man is going to be a difference maker for the Revs for years to come.

That’s it for me! Until next time…

Ryan

McHale’s Musings – October 16, 2017

Leave a reply

As the latest addition to the rapidly expanding Boston Sports Extra team, I’d like to formally introduce myself. My name is Ryan McHale, and I’m from Milford, Massachusetts. I live with my wife and 2 incredible children. In addition to penning pieces for this site, I’m a middle school teacher and parent blogger. I find sports to be cathartic. While I may not have the athleticism of the superstars we known and love, I nevertheless relish in their victories and languish in their defeat. Each week, I enjoy writing down the laundry list of thoughts bouncing around my mind. I opted to share them this evening so that you, the loyal readers of Boston Sports Extra, can get a glimpse into the mind of the newest website contributor.

New England Patriots

  • Without a shadow of doubt in this young writer’s mind, The New York Jets had a touchdown taken away from them.  You will not change my mind.
  • Earlier this evening,  I engaged in a back and forth conversation on Twitter with former Patriots linebacker, Matt Chatham. We exchanged a number of tweets over the course of ten minutes. I haven’t changed my mind. Nor has he. In my mind, the Jets lost a touchdown. Chatham believes the letter of the law was enforced, thus the correct call was made. Whether or not the officiating crew reasonably interpreted a terribly written rule is a moot point. I did not see a single shred of overwhelming evidence to remotely suggest the call on the field should be overturned.
  • It’s no secret that the team’s defense is its Achilles’ heel through the first six games of the season. The unit, as a whole, looks lost and is suffering from the lack of a clear leader. Their inability to stop New York on first quarter 3rd downs was incredibly frustrating to watch. Yes, injuries are piling up. Yes, Patricia can only do so much with glaring personnel issues. However, the Patriots are supposed to be the ultimate “Next Man Up” squad. Or does that phrase only apply to the Brady-led offense?
  • Regardless of how sloppy the team may have looked at times this afternoon, coming back from a two score deficit on the road is nothing to scoff at. Here’s hoping the resiliency shown by the team today carries over to next week and a Super Bowl rematch with the Atlanta Falcons.

Boston Bruins

  • For the Boston Bruins, the mediocre play of Tuukka Rask is undoubtedly cause for concern. If there’s one thing (aside from injuries and inexperienced players) that threatens to derail the ’17-’18 campaign, it’s the leading man between the pipes. Rask has struggled mightily early on. With tonight’s loss, Rask is 1-3 with a paltry save percentage of .882 and 3.30 Goals Against Average (GAA).
  • The Black and Gold need the stable presence of Patrice Bergeron.
  • I predict that Charlie McAvoy will exceed the lofty expectations set upon him. McAvoy’s youth and speed should help stabilize a group of defensemen that haven’t been up to the task in recent seasons.

Boston Celtics

  • The Boston Celtics begin their season Tuesday night against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Don’t these two teams have some kind of recent history together?
  • While the additions of Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward will make this Celtics team Must-See-TV, is there any other sport with a more pointless regular season than the NBA? We’re forced to watch six months of games to get to the inevitable conclusion. Oh, how I miss parity.
  • Isaiah Thomas has every right to feel slighted by what he believes to be a cold-hearted move by Danny Ainge. While I’ll never understand the feeling of being traded, I imagine it’s hard not to take an involuntary move personally. However, Ainge made the move he felt was in the best interest of the Boston Celtics. Isaiah’s performance throughout last year’s playoffs will be remembered by fans of the green team forever.  By playing with such passion after the tragic death of his sister, Thomas solidified his place in Celtics lore.

Boston Red Sox

  • Alex Cora needs to be the next manager of the Boston Red Sox. As a player, Cora was never one to shy away from accepting responsibility when things went wrong. This Red Sox club is full of players who don’t feel as though they should be held to a high standard and questioned with failing to perform as they should. The Sox have an unbelievable amount of talent, but they need a skipper who’s going to make them face the heat when they fail to get the job done. Otherwise, we’ll see another ego-filled clubhouse unable to reach their full potential.
  • It’s obvious that Chris Sale’s innings and pitch count need to be more carefully monitored in late August through September heading towards the playoffs. He’s a fast-working, hard-throwing, full-of-intensity pitcher. It should come as no surprise that he’ll have to overcome fatigue in the later stages of the season. The Sox need a fully rested Sale if they’re to find success in the postseason.
  • I consider Sale, Rafael Devers, Andrew Benintendi, and Mookie Betts to be the only “untouchables” in any future discussions with the Miami Marlins regarding Giancarlo Stanton. Aside from that foursome, every other player in that locker room is fair game. Make it happen, Mr. Dombrowski.

New England Revolution

  • The New England Revolution will be stuck in MLS purgatory until ownership is willing to truly invest in a competitive lineup and experienced head coach. There’s just too much talent across the league. The Revolution, and their loyal fanbase, deserve better.
  • At just 22 years of age, Diego Fagundez is on his way toward becoming a MLS superstar. He deserves to be the face of Revolution soccer moving forward.

 

Until next time,

Ryan McHale

2017 Red Sox Report Card

Leave a reply

We shouldn’t be upset that the 2017 Red Sox season is over. Certainly it would have been nice to get past Houston and into the ALCS. We might even hope to hit a little lightning in a bottle, beat the Tribe and make it to the World Series.

As any smart baseball observer knew long ago, this wasn’t a great Boston team (see here).   It was constructed poorly, managed poorly, and it performed poorly against baseballs best teams. Frankly, if you look at it through the commonly accepted five-tools of baseball, the 2017 Sox actually over achieved.

Tool 1: Hitting For Average (C)

After posting a league-leading team batting average of .282 last year, the Sox dropped to the middle of the pack this year at .258. Losing Ortiz (.315 in 2016) hurt. What hurt more was the precipitous drop from Betts, Bogaerts and Bradley, and Ramirez – each batted at least 21 points below their 2016 average. Most troubling, as something we pointed out here, was Mookie’s fall from .318 last season to .264 this year.

Tool 2: Hitting For Power (F)

Embed from Getty Images

This year’s squad had all the pop of a softball team after finishing off the keg. In 2016 the Sox lead all 30 MLB teams in Slugging Percentage at .461. This year they finished 26th with a team slugging percentage of .407. For perspective, the Phillies slugged .409. They won 66 games.

The Sox hit only 168 home runs, good for 27th in the league. Papi’s absence again loomed large – 38 HRs and 127 RBIs in 2016. Again, more important was the decline in everyone else’s performance. Hanley hit seven fewer bombs and 49 fewer RBIs. Forty-nine.

Tool 3: Base Running (D)

Do we really even need to discuss this? The Sox were horrible on the base paths this year. Every night there was a new train wreck at home plate as the slowest players on the team were gunned down by five steps. Or, someone made a mistake and was doubled-up on what should have only been a routine fielder’s choice.

The only reason Base Running isn’t an “F” for the year is that with their team speed, the Sox managed 106 stolen bases (6th in MLB) and were caught only 31 times (13th). That’s what is so frustrating about this squad. With their speed, they should have been great running the bases.

Embed from Getty Images

Skipper John Farrell dismissed the Sox ineptitude on the bases, insisting the obscene number of outs was the result of an aggressive philosophy. That might be partly true, but the decision to send someone like Sandy Leon or Mitch Moreland home on a shallow fly isn’t being “aggressive” it’s being stupid. They were stupid a lot this year.

Tool 4: Throwing/Pitching (B+)

For all the Pedro-like excitement for Chris Sale’s starts this season, he really was pretty awful when we needed him most. As discussed previously (here), in the second half of the year he dominated the worst teams and was dominated by the best. He finished with career highs in both innings (214.1) and K’s (308) – and that might have been part of the problem. He looked tired down the stretch and gave up a ton of home runs.

As good as Sale was at times, Porcello was equally bad. Leading the league in losses (17), runs (125), and home runs allowed (38), Pretty Ricky was ugly in 2017. But, besides Sale and Porcello, team pitching was essentially the same this year as last year. This year’s staff managed a nearly identical WHIP and BAA (Batting Average Against) as last year in 43 more innings pitched. Given how poorly the team hit this year, the pitching deserves the bulk of the credit for winning the division.

Tool 5: Fielding (D)

Can we get a list of volunteers to hit grounders to the infield this off season? After committing only 75 errors in 2016 (3rd best in baseball), this year’s squad committed 107 (7th worst).

Devers adjustment at third base was certainly a factor. He committed 14 errors in 58 games. He’s young, he’ll improve. Bogaerts led the team with 17 errors in 2017, five more than in 2016 (in 10 fewer chances). Just like at the plate, he’s regressing in the field.

Final Grade (C)

My kids like to tell me that a “C” on their report card is “average”… as if that’s acceptable. It is not. Certainly not for a team with a $200M payroll. It is revealing that a team as demonstrably average as the 2017 Red Sox can, not only make the playoffs, but win the division. It should make everyone understand how important pitching is to success.

Where to Go From Here

We’ve said for months that the 2017 Red Sox were a deeply flawed team. They have talent, but not enough. They lack power and they commit too many unforced errors in the field and on the bases. That’s a coaching issue.

Embed from Getty Images

Chili Davis is simply not getting it done as a hitting coach. It’s easy to look good with David Ortiz compensating for team power numbers, but the regression of the core members of this franchise’s future can’t continue.

Base coaches Butterfield (3B) and Amaro (1B) need to be held responsible for the ridiculous performance on the base paths. No team with as much speed and experience as the Sox should look so clueless every night.

It is hard to justify firing a manager who just won consecutive division titles and won a World Series only four years ago, but changes must be made in the coaching staff.

 

The Enemy of My Enemy

Leave a reply

I must have missed that tweet. You know, the one where the @Yankees finally conceded that they were only a Wild Card team this season. Their public relations team must have just forgotten. I’m sure they were exhausted after pushing out hundreds of updates on how they were closing in on the division for the past two weeks.

Let’s Go Tribe

At the risk of sounding like an AL East snob, I don’t see any scenario in which the Twins beat the Yankees. Obviously, I hope that they do – nothing is quite as refreshing as bathing in the tears of your enemy. But, Severino is pitching great and rookie strike-out king Aaron Judge will probably bunt for a couple of home runs in their joke ballpark.

Embed from Getty Images

The Wild Card remains important, however, because it throws off NY’s rotation heading into their series with Cleveland on Thursday. Unless Girardi does something unusual and goes with Gray, Tanka, or Sabathia against Minnesota to save Severino for the ALDS opener, NY likely won’t throw their ace until game three. Even then, that would be on only four days’ rest. They could, according to Ken Davidoff of the NY Post, even slide him further to game four depending on the matchup.

React to contact

If the Tribe takes the first two in Cleveland, which they certainly could, the chances are very good that New York goes with Severino on four days rest in the potential elimination game. Sabathia would probably follow in game four.

If NY-CLE split the first two, I would expect Sabathia to pitch game three to give Severino the extra day off. Sabathia may be physically incapable of fielding his position or saying no to a second plate at the buffet, but he is still a big game pitcher and a solid game-three starter.

Embed from Getty Images

Where Cleveland is vulnerable

Francona is in a tough spot – which may sound strange considering he just won 102 games and seemed to clinch the playoffs in early May. The top of his rotation is great – better than NYs. But once you get past Kluber, Carrasco, and Bauer, where are you? There’s a reason he’s supposedly considering a three-man rotation in the playoffs.

Embed from Getty Images

New York has more depth in their rotation. Severino is exceptional – perhaps as good as Kluber. Neither Gray, Tanaka, nor Sabathia are as good as Carrasco – but the three of them are better than the balance of Cleveland’s arms.

What this means is that Cleveland needs to wrap up this series fast. If this goes five games, the Tribe would have thrown Kluber and Carrasco twice. This would have Bauer leading off the ALCS and put Kluber at game two, and potentially six.

Play for Today, Plan for Tomorrow

Cleveland could get through Houston or Boston in the ALCS with that rotation. But what will the staff look like in the World Series. How many extra innings will the Tribe’s three best arms have thrown before they even get there?

In 2004 we learned that Tito is the ultimate play for today manager. He doesn’t look past games, let alone series. At least not publically. But, he better. He will need Kluber and Carrasco at least twice in the ALCS and World Series if he gets there. He better deliver the knock-out blow to NY early.

 

 

The Road to the World Series Not Paved with Gold

Leave a reply

The Red Sox are in the playoffs with a magic number of one to secure the AL East title. The journey to the World Series starts now.

‘Stros and the Tribe Up Next

There is a good chance that will happen, but then the fun begins. With the Astros and the Indians still competing for home field advantage, the Red Sox have a mountain to climb.  Both possible opponents have been among the best and most consistent teams of 2017.  The Indians have won 100 games, the Astros 99.  The Astros lead the MLB in batting average, RBI, OBP, SLG, OPS, runs, hits and doubles. Offensively, they are a machine with a line up deeper than the Atlantic.  While their pitching is not as strong, the team ERA is 4.13, they strike out a lot of batters and are above average in just about every way.  The also have former CY Young winners in Keuchal and Verlander who have sampled the play offs before.

The Indians also play on the back of that record-breaking winning streak with high confidence. Offensively not as strong as the Astros, but The Indians remain in the top five in most categories.  Their pitching is their strong card. They have the best team ERA, most strikeouts, most complete games, a second best WHIP of 1.17 and they have Terry Francona, a manager who has won and lost in the World Series and understands how to manage his pitching staff in the post season cauldron.

The Up and Down Sox

At the moment, the Red Sox are frustratingly inconsistent. They have the talent but can’t seem to put it all together over a sustained period.  There is no doubt the Red Sox are down on power at the plate. They rank just 27th in home runs with just a mere 167 this season.  The team slugging percentage is just .408, down in 25th spot with an OPS of just .738.

It is brighter on the defensive side. The Red Sox have the fourth-best ERA of 3.71, the third most strikeouts a WHIP of 1.25 and Chris Sale, who on his day is one of the top-three pitchers in the whole MLB.  The problem is that the Red Sox have pitched the most innings of any team, mainly because run support had often been non-existent. Chris Sale has pitched more innings than anyone and it’s beginning to show.  That said, there has been a recent and alarming tendency by the pitching staff to give up runs in the first inning. With the current, offensive state of play its game over.

We know the Indians will have a game plan for the playoffs. We saw it last year and no doubt it will happen again.  The Astros will let their bats do the talking and will just try and outscore everyone. Any off day from a Red Sox pitcher will be punished.

If the Red Sox are to make it to the World Series, it is likely they will have to beat both the Indians and the Astros. To do that they are going to have to shut down the Astros’ offense and overcome Kluber, Miller and co.

That’s a tough ask.

Bullish on the ‘pen

Leave a reply

Grudging Respect to the Skipper

Let’s be clear. Despite this, I do not think much of John Farrell as a manager. That said, however, he was a great pitching coach during Terry Francona’s tenure as skipper. It is not a coincidence that the Red Sox have one of the best rotations and have the best bullpen in baseball. Tough to argue with a 15-3 record in extra-inning games or find fault in the skipper who got them there.

Loaded for October

As great as we may feel about sweeping unlikeable Baltimore and clinching a playoff berth, the road ahead is going to be difficult. October baseball is different. There are no more Toronto’s, Oakland’s or Cincinnati’s. Everyone can play. Every line up is deep. Every rotation is tough. But, not every bullpen is great. Ours is, as Scott Frizzell expertly laid out yesterday (here).

Embed from Getty Images

Sure, every one of the locked or likely AL playoff teams has a lights-out closer.  Giles (HOU), Kintzler (MIN), Allen (CLE), and, despite his struggles against Boston, Chapman (NYY) are all excellent. And they all have a decent set-up guys. But, in October starting pitchers face the deepest line-ups in the league and tend to have high pitch counts earlier. It’s not enough to have an eighth inning guy to bridge to your closer. You need a seventh inning stud. And often more.

With apologies to Velazquez, Maddox, Smith, and Elias who have all contributed but just barely, the nine core members of the Sox bullpen are the best in the AL. Kimbrel leads all AL playoff closers with 33 saves, with Houston’s Giles right behind him at 32.

Getting the ball to our ginger Travelocity gnome is a squad who’ve pitched over 350 innings, surrendered only 132 earned runs, struck out 345, and have a WHIP of 1.18. For perspective, Drew Pomeranz, 16-5 on the season, has a WHIP of 1.34. So, basically Boston’s bullpen is better than their number two starter. Not. Too. Shabby.

The Best We’ve Had

Boston’s current bullpen is the best we’ve had in decades. With the possible exception of ’07 Papelbon, nobody in their right mind would trade Kimbrell for any closer in recent Red Sox history. And, as much as the Timlin-Embree combination provided the ’04 world champions, the sheer depth of this year’s squad is unmatched.

None of this is to say that their success will continue in the post season. October baseball is different. Guys who were lights out in the regular season often fade as the innings pile up and as the teams get tougher. Hideki Okajima springs to mind.

In 2007, Oki had thrown 69 regular season innings – more than any of our current relievers – and registered a 2.22 ERA and 0.971 WHIP. He was the definition of shut-down. Yet, he threw 11 post-season innings, including 3.2 in the World Series, where his numbers skyrocketed (7.36 ERA).

As this season winds down, it is critical that Farrell manage innings for each of his arms. He should consider throwing Price as often as medically possible – to both get him in shape for important innings in October, and to protect the guys who are tired.

“Judging” Rafael Devers

Leave a reply

Let’s jump to conclusions. For one minute, let’s be Yankee fans and make ridiculous assertions about how every player who dons our uniform will one have a plaque in Cooperstown.

Rafael Devers is that guy. His electric start, along with the addition of a scalding-hot Eduardo Nunez, injected energy and offense into the struggling Sox in July and vaulted them back into first place in the East. Even after a recent dip, his .300/8/18 start to his big league career is more than just promising, it’s exhilarating. Let’s face it, if he played in the Bronx they’d already be thinking about retiring his number and ordering his plaque for Monument Valley. God knows they’re already measuring Aaron Judge for a HoF jacket.

But we’re not Yankee fans. Thank the Lord.

We’re smart enough to know that as good as Devers was on the farm, and what he displayed with his hot start, he will level out – in fact he may already have. But when he does, what can we expect? From an offensive standpoint, the answer looks pretty damn good.

Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics

Bill James didn’t reinvent the game with his Baseball Abstract in 1977, but he did start a revolution in how we think about, analyze, and project player value. Johan Hill showed Brad Pitt the power of data analytics in Moneyball, and if he could figure it out between adopting half the world’s orphans and murdering zombies then most of us can too.

Many believers in sabermetrics will tell you that the number-one predictor of hitting potential in the big leagues over time is best summed up as the relationship between power, average, and strike-outs. Intuitively, when we think about the greatest hitters who ever played the game, we think about guys who drove the ball with power and seldom swung and missed. Williams, Ruth, Mays, and Aaron come to mind.

Embed from Getty Images

It’s not enough to simply crush the ball. Nobody in their right minds considers Dave Kingman one of the all-time great hitters – though he did hit 442 HRs in the pre-steroid era. Kingman’s problem? He was a career .236 hitter with more than 1,800 Ks. So, the greatest hitters who ever lived are those with high slugging percentages, high batting averages, and low strike-outs. Not exactly rocket science. If you isolate hitting for power (slugging avg – batting avg) and divide by Ks per 9-innings, you can begin to see quantitatively why the people you think were great hitters were, and why we hate Carl Crawford .

Name Level Games Slugging Average ISO-Power SOs SO per 9 Inning ISO-P/K
Ted Williams MLB 2292 0.634 0.344 0.290 709 0.309 0.937
Rogers Hornsby MLB 2259 0.577 0.358 0.219 679 0.301 0.729
Babe Ruth MLB 2503 0.690 0.342 0.348 1330 0.531 0.655
Hank Aaron MLB 3298 0.555 0.305 0.250 1383 0.419 0.596
George Brett MLB 2707 0.487 0.305 0.182 908 0.335 0.543
Willie Mays MLB 2992 0.557 0.302 0.255 1526 0.510 0.500
Gary Sheffield MLB 2576 0.514 0.292 0.222 1171 0.455 0.488
Wade Boggs MLB 2440 0.443 0.328 0.115 745 0.305 0.377
David Ortiz MLB 2408 0.552 0.286 0.266 1750 0.727 0.366
Manny Ramirez MLB 2302 0.585 0.312 0.273 1813 0.788 0.347
Mark Texiera MLB 1862 0.509 0.268 0.241 1441 0.774 0.311
Dwight Evans MLB 2606 0.470 0.272 0.198 1697 0.651 0.304
Jack Clark MLB 1994 0.476 0.267 0.209 1441 0.723 0.289
Jim Thome MLB 2543 0.554 0.276 0.278 2548 1.002 0.277
Dave Kingman MLB 1941 0.478 0.236 0.242 1816 0.936 0.259
Reggie Jackson MLB 2820 0.490 0.262 0.228 2597 0.921 0.248
Carl Crawford MLB 1716 0.435 0.290 0.145 1067 0.622 0.233
Wily Mo Pena MLB 599 0.445 0.250 0.195 559 0.933 0.209

Of the players who belong to the Hall of Fame (bold), Reggie Jackson was an outlier. Objectively speaking, from a quantitative standpoint, he was a painfully average ballplayer. For perspective, in more than 1,000 fewer at bats, he struck out 1,071 more times than Willie Mays. Reggie just happened to excel on the big stage – winning four World Series and winning MVP in two of them.

Boston’s Future

Rafael Devers hasn’t had enough MLB at-bats to generate a sufficiently large statistical sample yet. But if we compare his minor league numbers to Betts, Bogaerts, and Bradley – and knowing how those players have leveled out after over 450-MLB games each – we can begin to see where he might level out himself.

Name Level Games Slugging Average ISO-Power SOs SO per 9 Inning ISO-P/K
Mookie Betts Minors 313 0.442 0.307 0.135 147 0.470 0.287
Rafael Devers Minors 399 0.482 0.296 0.186 291 0.729 0.255
Rafael Devers MLB 40 0.513 0.300 0.213 39 0.975 0.218
Xander Bogaerts Minors 315 0.503 0.288 0.215 272 0.863 0.249
Jackie Bradley Minors 277 0.474 0.298 0.176 208 0.751 0.234

We should note that currently, through 493 MLB games, Mookie’s ISO-P/K is .355 – placing him squarely between Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz. I hope we can agree that he’s leveled out quite nicely. It would be premature, with such a small sample at the big-league level, to project Devers will be in Betts’ class as a pro (he’s at .218 now.  But with good coaching, line-up protection, and patience at the plate,. we can expect him to be more productive than either Bogaerts or Bradley – and that’s not too shabby.

Embed from Getty Images

And just for perspective – NY’s newest hero, Aaron Judge, had a .182 in 348 minor league games.  And despite all the tape measure HRs and Sportscenter fawning, he’s sitting at .202 through 152 big-league games. Dave Kingman? He’s not even Carl Crawford.

 

Note: all statistics thank to the tome of wisdom at www.baseball-reference.com

 

Happy Anniversary Wake

Leave a reply

Aaron Bleepin’ Boone

I was somewhere over the Mediterranean when Aaron Boone hit his home run off Wake to win the 2003 ALCS and send the Red Sox home early from the post season. Another year of what might have been. Truth be told I wouldn’t have been watching anyway. I was redeploying from Iraq that day, and after watching Pedro strike out Alfonso Soriano to end the seventh inning with the Sox still up 4-2, I went to check on my flight home.

Ortiz added a home run off of David Wells in the top of the eighth to make it 5-2. We were in great shape. Between Timlin and Embree the ’03 Sox bullpen was lights out. This was going to be THE YEAR. Enter Grady Little.

When I returned from getting my flight update, Pedro was inexplicably still on the mound for the bottom of the eighth and Jeter was on second base after a one-out double. Bernie Williams singled. Jeter scored. I dropped a number of f-bombs and left. Not because my plane was leaving. I left because I knew, deep down we all knew, how this game was going to end.

Embed from Getty Images

For those too young to remember a time before Aaron Boone was ruining baseball games in the ESPN broadcast booth, I’ll summarize. New York scored three in the bottom of the eighthnn to tie it and Aaron Bleepin’ Boone sent a Tim Wakefield knuckler into the second deck in left field to send NY back to the World Series.

He’s no Bill Buckner

Walking off the mound at Yankee Stadium, having surrendered the series losing home run, Wake admitted that he was terrified that he would no longer be welcome in Boston. After all, the last Red Sox goat – Bill Buckner – had been run out of town after contributing to the collapse in the 1986 World Series against the Mets. But Wake was no Billy Buck.

Wakefield had been with the Sox for nine seasons and won 102 games for Boston by then. He’d thrown 14 great innings of relief and won two games in that ALCS. He was a legitimate candidate for series MVP. Had they won.

Boston forgave Wake. We had Grady Little to hate.

Our Ironman

Wakefield pitched 17 seasons in Boston, winning 186 games for the hometown team and 200 for his career. He did everything anyone could have asked. He averaged 200 innings a season for his 19-year career. He started. He did long relief. He closed. Sometimes all in the same season.

In 1999, the Red Sox used Wakefield, a knuckleballer who’s every pitch was an adventure for the catcher and a home run waiting to happen for the hitter, to close. In addition to staring 17 games that year, he saved 15.

Wake was selfless. In game three of the 2004 ALCS, when Boston was getting pummeled by New York and on the verge of going down 0-3 in the series, Wake asked for the ball so Franconia could save the bullpen. He entered the game in the third inning, already down 10-0. He took his lumps for 3.1 innings and gave the Sox a chance in game four.

Embed from Getty Images

He came out of the bullpen in game five and threw three innings of one-hit ball in extra innings in an elimination game. And won. For those who didn’t live through the 2004 ALCS, it is difficult to describe the intensity. For Wake, who walked off the mound a loser last year, to pitch so many clutch innings in against the same opponent in the same elimination situation the following year, his performance was nothing short of incredible.

Happy Anniversary Timmy

Today, September 13th, marks the sixth anniversary since Wake won his 200th career game. It’s not a major sports event, in fact I only remembered this morning when Facebook reminded me that I was there. I’m glad I was. Tim Wakefield really represents the great unsung Red Sox that are too often overlooked. He won’t ever be enshrined in Cooperstown, but he is exactly the kind of player that this franchise should celebrate.