Tag Archives: Royals

The Red Sox Bullpen Feels Shaky. Does it Matter?

Baseball’s waiver trade deadline passed yesterday, without so much as a peep from the top team in the majors. Dave Dombrowski and the Red Sox chose to roll with the guys in the clubhouse, despite two other AL rivals (New York and Cleveland) making moves to bring in former MVPs and despite calls across their fan base to improve the bullpen.

Those desperate cries have rang out all season long. As it turns out, fans aren’t feeling too comfortable at the thought of Matt Barnes, Joe Kelly, or Heath Hembree entering the 8th inning of a Game 7. Dombrowski’s reputation of building star-studded teams without reliable relievers doesn’t help matters either.

But just how shaky is Boston’s ‘pen? Is having a group of dominant relievers really so important in October? Let’s do a bit of digging to find out.

Red Sox Bullpen: Actually Good?

Photo Credit: AP Photo / Charles Krupa

For starters, the idea that the Red Sox bullpen has struggled this season is more perception than reality. There may not be a ton of big names and former closers like there are with the Yankees and Indians. That being said- the Sox’s relievers have generally been up to the task.

Boston currently ranks 6th in the majors in reliever ERA this season (4th in the AL). The five teams ahead of them also happen to be teams currently slated for a playoff spot. The aforementioned Indians, despite trading for the Padres’ Brad Hand earlier this summer and having Cody Allen and Andrew Miller in the mix, rank 26th in the league in bullpen ERA.

The Sox also rate favorably in FIP (5th in the majors, 3rd amongst playoff teams). Their bullpen’s 4.5 fWAR ranks 7th in baseball, even though their relievers have thrown only 461 innings this season (19th most). In other words, Boston’s ‘pen has provided enough value to rank in the top 25% of teams, despite appearing in fewer innings than every team ahead of them for the exception of Houston.

Of course, that doesn’t mean they’ve been perfect. Far from it in fact. Two troubling peripherals: the Red Sox rank 18th in reliever BB/9 (3.65) and 4th in strand rate (78.4%). Giving up free passes in high-leverage situations is playing with fire, especially in October. A high strand rate means that Boston has done well at putting out those fires. But, that luck can turn in a hurry.

Bullpen Matters

CINCINNATI, OH – AUGUST 12: Joe Kelly #56 of the Boston Red Sox pitches in the third inning of the game against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on August 12, 2014 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)

All of this is to say that the Red Sox bullpen has been overall perfectly acceptable, if not dominant. The good news? Having a great regular season bullpen isn’t necessarily a predictor for postseason success, especially if you excel in other areas like Boston does.

The defending World Series champion Astros ranked 17th in baseball with a 4.27 bullpen ERA last year, yet still won 101 games. That was thanks in large part to their league-leading offense and strong starting pitching. The team they beat for the title last year, the Dodgers, ranked 4th in bullpen ERA. Both finished behind the Red Sox, whose 3.15 reliever ERA was good for 2nd best in baseball.

Here’s where the other previous six pennant winners ranked in bullpen ERA:

2016: Cubs 8th, Indians 4th

2015: Royals 2nd, Mets 11th

2014: Giants 5th, Royals 10th

Of the last eight World Series participants, four finished in the top five. Only last year’s Astros finished outside of the top half of the league. The Royals, who started this craze with their three-headed monster of Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera, and Greg Holland, finished 2nd in 2015. Their bullpen effectively functioned as the team’s greatest asset, compensating for a weak rotation and unconventional lineup. It was essentially the inverse of what the ’17 Astros lineup did for their relievers.

It’s perfectly fair to critique Dombrowski for not finding a better option at either trade deadline. It certainly would have been nice to supplement Craig Kimbrel at the end of games. Ultimately, it might not matter if the Red Sox bullpen is merely above average instead of dominant. Having a killer set of relievers helps come playoff time. However, it’s not necessarily more important than timely hitting, strong starting pitching, and major contributions from stars.

Thus far, it appears Red Sox management is betting on that being the case.

Possible Trade Deadline Moves for the Red Sox

Wilson Ramos

It should not be a surprise that Red Sox catchers have been woeful at the plate. This season, catchers are hitting .226/.270/.319/.589 with 18 RBIs and 47 strikeouts. Sox catchers also have a league worst -1.1 WAR, so upgrade to the catcher depth is a no-brainer. With all this being said, Wilson Ramos would be a match made in heaven for the Red Sox.

Ramos is slashing .284/.327/.446/.773 with eight home runs, .327 BABIP and a 115 wRC+. In short, if I told you he was the fourth best hitting catcher in baseball, I’d most likely have the numbers to back up my claim. The Rays, meanwhile, are 13.5 games out of first and will be trending in the wrong direction faster than they already have. They began their rebuild when they gave away Evan Longoria in December of 2017, and will most likely look to continue just that. Ramos is a free agent in 2019, so he would be a rental. But it’s so worth it.

Nicholas Castellanos

Nicholas Catellanos is really starting to turn into a top-tier hitter in his young age. Castellanos has played a majority of his professional career at third base, but is now an everyday outfielder. In his last three seasons, he’s hit .285/.331./.492/.823 with a 117 wRC+, which is pretty darn good. He’s 26 years old and will be under team control until 2020, so a trade would have to yield a lot more than the Wilson Ramos scenario.

However, the already struggling Tigers just lost their franchise first baseman in Miguel Cabrera for the rest of the season and will be forced to be sellers at the deadline. If this happens, the only logical way to make it work is to give up Jackie Bradley along with some others. The problem with this move is that Castellanos will be a hot commodity with other teams, and the Sox may not have enough to offer when it comes to competition. Regardless, the club should be active in inquiring for the 26 year old.

Mike Moustakas

No, this is not a recycled paragraph from the past off-season- bear with me here. Just because Moustakas signed a one year contract (with a second year mutual option) doesn’t mean the Royals can’t move him. The Royals are 23 games under .500 and this would probably be the best move for both organizations.

You may be wondering, “But what about that Devers kid?” Rafael Devers has not been playing the best baseball so far in 2018. Devers has the lowest wRC+ figure among qualifying third basemen in the league. He may still need some time platooning with a more experienced third baseman or possibly even going back to Pawtucket. Let’s get one thing straight: I am not saying give up on the kid. What has to be remembered is that he is still only 21 years old and may need some more time to sharpen his skills and adjust his swing.

Moustakas is having a pretty good year, batting .263/.317/.483/.800 with 13 homers and 42 RBIs. He definitely can pick up the pace even more, especially if he was inserted into the Red Sox lineup. On top of that, his .973 fielding percentage is way better than Devers’ (.931), and he has extensive postseason experience. It’s a win-win all around.

@ELJGON

On This Day in Red Sox History: Scott Cooper Goes Cycling

Red Sox Jump All Over Appier

Kevin Appier was coming off a season which saw him place third in the American League Cy Young vote. His record had been 18-8 and he posted a league leading 2.56 ERA. In three of his four full seasons to this point he had pitched to a sub-3.00 ERA. He was an ace, no doubt about it. But Appier did not have his stuff on this night.

Speedster Otis Nixon started things off with a bunt single. After a walk to Billy Hatcher, Mike Greenwell doubled to right, scoring Nixon for the game’s first run. Mo Vaughn then crushed a pitch down the right field line that resulted in a triple, scoring two runs. Andre Dawson made it five consecutive baserunners when he singled home Mo. The 39 year old Dawson then stole second base, one of only two steals he would record that season, and the last stolen bases of his Hall of Fame career. A Tim Naehring walk brought Scott Cooper to the plate for the first time. Cooper’s double to right scored both baserunners, extending the lead to 6-0 without even one out being recorded. Appier actually set down the next three guys in order to keep the score at 6-0.

The Red Sox tacked on another run in the second when Billy Hatcher homered to left leading off the inning. This was Hatcher’s only home run for the Red Sox that season before being traded on May 31st for Wes Chamberlain. The Royals scratched out a run in the bottom of the inning and it was a 7-1 ballgame after two.

Cooper Provides the Fireworks

Scott Cooper came to bat again in the third. This time his hit to right cleared the wall for a home run, his first of the young season. Two batters later, catcher Dave Valle hit the only home run of his Red Sox career. Valle would be traded in the middle of June for old friend Tom Brunansky. Appier would finish out the inning and call it a night, surrendering nine runs in just three innings of work.

The Royals showed a little fight in the bottom half of the third, getting two men on base for a Dave Henderson three-run home run. But the Red Sox still held a 9-4 lead.

Scott Cooper batted again in the fifth, with two outs and the bases empty. Cooper lined one the other way down into the left field corner. When Vince Coleman went to play it, the ball squirted past him along the fence. Cooper had slowed down, but sped back up on his way to third. He again slowed going around third, but got waved home with two outs. Cooper was meat at the plate, but it gave him the triple, leaving him just a single shy of the cycle.

Red Sox Offense Explodes

Sidearmer and future Red Sox Stan Belinda took the mound for the Royals in the sixth. For some reason he pitched the whole inning. The Red Sox sent 12 men to the plate, scoring eight runs, although just two were earned. Belinda walked four men in the inning and two errors were committed. John Valentin led off the inning with a walk, then later in the inning hit a three-run homer to left-center.

Up 17-4 entering the seventh, the Red Sox still weren’t finished. Facing the Royals closer, the Red Sox expanded their lead to 21-4. Mo Vaughn hit a two-run homer, giving him a triple and a home run on the night. Then, with two men on and needing a single for the cycle, Cooper ripped one to right, scoring both runners. Not being selfish for the cycle, Cooper continued on to second for his second double of the night. Cooper now had 11 total bases and five runs batted in.

Cooper Caps Off the Cycle

Scott Cooper got one more shot to complete the cycle. With the Red Sox now up 22-8, the Royals sent infielder David Howard to the mound to finish the game. Scott Cooper led off the inning against him and hit a sharp ground ball into center field for his fifth hit of the game and to cap off his cycle. This was the first cycle for a Red Sox player since Mike Greenwell completed the feat in 1988.

The Red Sox loaded the bases in the inning but did no more scoring. The Royals got three meaningless runs before the game finished, giving the Red Sox a 22-11 victory. This was the most runs the Sox had scored in a game since they scored 24 against the Cleveland Indians on August 21, 1986. Cooper would go on to be the Red Sox representative in the All-Star Game for the second straight season in 1994. This was the best game of the two time All-Stars career; 12 total bases, 5 runs batted in and the cycle.

American League Wild Card Race (Part 2 of 2)

AL Wild Card Race Heats Up as September Commences

Let’s look at the AL wild card playoff race (as of 9/4/17). In the previous part of this article I broke down the current situation for the Yankees, Twins, Angels and Mariners. In Part 2, I’ll analyze Baltimore, Kansas City, Tampa Bay and Texas.

Wild Card Teams	W	L	PCT	WCGB	WCE #	L10	STRK
NY Yankees	73	63	.537	+2.0	–	5-5	W2
Minnesota	71	65	.522	–	–	6-4	L1
Baltimore	70	67	.511	1.5	25	8-2	W1
LA Angels	70	67	.511	1.5	25	5-5	L1
Seattle	69	68	.504	2.5	24	5-5	W3
Texas	68	68	.500	3.0	24	5-5	W1
Kansas City	67	68	.496	3.5	24	3-7	W1
Tampa Bay	68	70	.493	4.0	22	6-4	L2

Baltimore Orioles (70-67, 1.5 GB)

It has been a season of streaks for the Orioles. At various points, it has seemed nearly impossible for the Orioles to win. At other times, it has been seemingly impossible to contain their offense. A little consistency could go a long way for Baltimore. But they just can’t seem to find any.

Their struggles have stemmed from horrendous starting pitching. As a team, Baltimore owns a 4.81 ERA which ranks 14th in the AL. Dylan Bundy is the only Oriole starter with an ERA under 4. He owns a 3.94 ERA, certainly respectable, but also modest for an ace. Aside from Bundy, the O’s rotation has been brutal. Kevin Gausman and Wade Miley both have ERA’s close to 5 (4.79 and 4.91). They both rank in the bottom 10 in the category among qualifiers. Even worse, Ubaldo Jiminez has an ERA of 6.85 and former ace Chris Tillman’s ERA stands at 7.85.

Luckily for the Orioles, they have one of the most intimidating offensive lineups in the league. They are the only team in the MLB that has six players with at least 20 home runs. Jonathan Schoop has had a breakout season and has carried the load, batting .309 (6th in AL) with 30 homers (10th in AL) and 101 RBI (2nd in AL). The Orioles struggled mightily in May, June and July with a combined record of 36-46. However since the start of August they are 19-13, winning eight of their last 10.

Their recent success has come from monstrous second halves by aforementioned Jonathan Schoop as well as young superstar Manny Machado. The starting pitching has also improved lately. But pitching has to improve if the Orioles want to become a legitimate contender. In order for the O’s to make a serious playoff run, their offense will have to remain red hot and carry their atrocious pitching staff. Also, Chris Tillman and Ubaldo Jimenez, as veteran pitchers, must step up for their team if they want to play in October.

Texas Rangers (68-68, 3 GB)

The Texas Rangers represent the epitome of a team that lives and dies by the home run. Thus far this strategy has been mildly successful as they sit at .500 on the season. Oddly, the Rangers rank 11th in the AL in batting average (.247) but still have scored the third highest number of runs (693). The plethora of runs scored this season stems from their tremendous power. Texas leads the AL in home runs with 212.

Three players on the Rangers standout as typical sluggers who hit for low average but provide power to help their team. They are Rougned Odor (.211, 27 HR), Mike Napoli ( .194, 28 HR) and Joey Gallo (.211, 37 HR). Elvis Andrus has had a breakout offensive season, batting .301 with 18 homers. Also, Adrian Beltre is still producing in his 20th MLB season but has recently found himself back on the DL.

Mediocre starting pitching holds back the Rangers from becoming a legitimate contender. Cole Hamels has been decent but not as effective as in the past. Andrew Cashner has been the bright spot of their pitching staff with a 3.30 ERA. Nick Martinez, AJ Griffin and Martin Perez are all having poor seasons. If Cole Hamels can pitch to his potential, then I like the Rangers’ odds of snatching one of the wild card spots.

Kansas City Royals (67-68, 3.5 GB)

The Royals had a brutal start to the season, ending April with a record of 7-16. While their pitching was not so bad their offense was terrible. However, the Royals did manage to turn it around. They were actually one of the best teams in baseball from May to July posting a W/L of 48-33 in that span.

It looked like they would battle with the Indians and Twins for the AL Central, crown but the Indians have pulled away and the Royals have fallen off. Kansas City owns a record of 12-19 since the beginning of August, losing seven 7 of their last 10. Kansas City now sits one game under .500, barely staying alive in the playoff picture.

Mike Moustakas, with a .277 average and 36 home runs and Eric Hosmer, with a .318 average and 23 home runs have tried to carry the load offensively. But it just has not been quite enough, as the Royals rank 14th in runs scored in the AL with 581. The main reason for the Royals second-half struggles has been the disappearance of Jason Vargas. Vargas was an AL Cy Young contender in the first half with a ERA of 2.62. But after this dominant first half, Vargas has fallen off brutally in the second half with an ERA since the All Star Break of 6.80.

Without Vargas pitching the way he did early in the season, I do not think that the Royals have a shot at claiming a wild card spot. Kansas City does not have a playoff-worthy offense or pitching staff, yet I can’t count them out yet because of their roster, full of experienced veterans who have playoff and late-season experience.

Tampa Bay Rays (68-70, 4 GB)

At this point, I do not think the Rays have any shot at making the playoffs. Sure, they are only four games out, but their offense has been wildly inconsistent all year. Tampa Bay hits a decent amount of home runs (fifth most in AL with 195) but they don’t score runs at a high rate, ranking 12th in the AL with 594. The Rays do rank towards the top of the AL in ERA at 4.03, but they seem to always have an injured pitcher on the DL. They only have three pitchers who have started more than 20 games (Odorizzi, Archer and Cobb). I don’t count them out yet, but I don’t think this team has a legitimate chance at making the playoffs due to their sub par offense and often-injured pitching staff.

*All statistics as of 9/4/17*

Boston Sports Extra

By Boston Fans, For Boston Fans