Tag Archives: Salem

The Aftershock of Michael Chavis

Michael Chavis has tested positive for a banned substance dehydrochlormethyltestosterone (an anabolic steroid) and has been suspended for 80 games. Chavis was the Red Sox’ number one position player prospect their farm system. Chavis was ranked 80 in the Majors prospects, so lasting effects can be evident.

Michael Chavis Background

Who exactly is the top positional player for the Sox? The 5’10” Georgia native was acquired in the 1st round of the 2014 draft from Sprayberry Senior HS. The 22 year old third baseman struggled in 2016 after posting a .244/.321/.391 slash in 312 plate appearances. 2017 seemed to be the season where he took his young career to the next level. He produced a .282/.347/.563 slash between Portland, Salem, and Peoria. His home run total rose from eight in 2016 to 31 in 2017. It’s easy to project when Chavis began a regimen for anabolic steroids. Seeing that his average never really impressed until his 2017 season proves that his value is close to unreliable. Combine that with his average defending and we have ourselves a bust in the making.

Chavis was known for his strong arm but choppy footwork at the hot corner. It would make sense for his eventual transition to first base. The uncertainty of first base at the Sox’ Major League level is probably what made Chavis such a pivotal part of their farm system.

Aftershocks on the Farm System

So with Chavis’s eventual demotion in the farm system rankings, which players are left in the top 10? Well, everyone knows Jay Groome, the southpaw hurler reigning from Barnegat Township, New Jersey at number one overall. However, excluding pitchers, it is evident that the Sox don’t have a whole lot of youngsters. Sam Travis is the next positional player to take the top spot after Chavis’ suspension, and even that isn’t much to brag about. In 33 games playing for the 2017 Sox, he posted an underwhelming .263/.325/.342 line.

His below average scouting report highlights his lack of power. It really works against the height of his ceiling. This is the next best positional player the Sox have in their farm. The Sox can’t expect to keep Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts, and Jackie Bradley, among the other core youngsters. For a team that is about as “win now” as ever, this really hurts the Sox more than people may realize. It would be different if this happened to a team with a deep system (see: Braves, Yankees etc.). But it’s not ideal for a team that will owe Chris Sale a Brinks truck to keep him around.

Major League After Effects

You might already know that Dave Dombrowski is a very trigger happy executive. The Red Sox seem to be at a loss when it comes to production out of the bullpen so far in the 2018 season (except for Kimbrel and Poyner). The writing on the wall will point to possibly using Chavis as a trade piece to upgrade the bullpen to the likes of the Yankees or Indians. Now that Chavis is suspended, I cannot see a major trade going down for the Sox the rest of the season. The ball club was probably one big trade piece away from being an even bigger championship contender than before.

The Bottom Line

Let’s be real for a second: The Red Sox are still putting an elite team on the field night after night. They have a major league roster with an average age of 27.9 (6th in 2017) and a starting rotation that has had an excellent first week of the 2018 season. This comes without the contributions of Drew Pomeranz, Eduardo Rodriguez and Steven Wright. With Devers panning out to be the future third baseman of the Red Sox and Mitch Moreland locked up until 2020, it seemed pretty hard for Chavis to make any noise in the Majors, barring an amazing minor league performance.

Does this really hurt the team in general? Yes and no. Yes, as in it negatively affects his value but no, as in the Sox never really had to rely on Chavis during their championship years anyway. It’s too early to tell how the bullpen will pan out in 2018. A team can never use too many arms, however, and do not forget that Andrew Miller is available as a free agent at the other side of this season. Chavis messed up, but Sox fans should not worry.

@ELJGON

Red Sox Who Could Crack Baseball America’s Top 100 in 2019

When Baseball America released its top 100 list on Monday, the Red Sox only had two farmhands make the list. In recent years, the farm system has produced more than just two players on the list, and usually several much higher on the list. Jason Groome was the highest ranked Red Sox prospect at number 83. This was the lowest a Red Sox top prospect has shown up on this list since Dernell Stenson in 2001. This isn’t to say all hope is lost down on the farm. The other day I wrote about the two players who made the list, and the Red Sox have plenty of other intriguing names for the future. They may not be Yoan Moncada or Michael Kopech, but they have a few guys who could threaten to crack the top 100 list in 2019.

The Most Likely

Bryan Mata

Mata is an 18 year old who was signed out of Venezuela in 2016. He is very refined for such a young kid, being rated as having the best control in the Red Sox farm system by Baseball America. Oftentimes control is something that gets better with age, so for someone so young to be graded so highly is rare.

Mata is more than just a control pitcher, throwing in the low to mid-90’s as a teenager. One would assume he will add some velocity as he reaches his 20’s and fills out more. Currently he is very skinny and will need to bulk up to withstand a full season, but there is plenty of time to do that. Once he does fill out more it would not be surprising to see him sit in the mid-90’s with his fastball. Mata also throws a curveball and a changeup. These offerings show potential but both have some work to do. He more than held his own last year at Greenville, a level not usually reached by someone his age. At just 18, Mata is far advanced for his age and could make the top 100 next year with continued improvement.

Tanner Houck

Houck was the Red Sox 1st round pick this past season, so it would be nice to see a strong year from him to elevate him into Baseball America’s top 100. Coming out of Missouri, Houck has a great pitcher’s frame, standing at 6’5″ 220. His fastball velocity has a wide range, but can reach as high as 98 MPH. The pitch has good sink to it and no doubt can play at the Major League level. How far he gets will rely on his secondary pitches and his refinement. He has the body to be a workhorse, but if he fizzles out as a starter he has the stuff to be a late innings reliever.

Houck has the best slider in the Red Sox system according to Baseball America; a third pitch will be key in his development. Throwing from a 3/4 arm slot, Houck reminds me some of Justin Masterson. Masterson was a high pick by the Red Sox who had a heavy sink on his pitches and a good slider. It was up in the air whether he would be a starter or a reliever in the majors; he ultimately did some of both. Masterson never really developed another reliable pitch to maintain his successes, so hopefully Houck can add a reliable third pitch.

Right-handed pitcher Tanner Houck pitches against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Taylor Stadium (Tim Nwachukwu)

Josh Ockimey

Ockimey is a big first baseman with excellent raw power. Ockimey can put on displays of power in batting practice, but the home runs haven’t come in abundance yet in games. Often, that comes later with development. A lot of guys hit for more power once they reach the majors than they ever did in the minors. Take a look at Aaron Judge, who never hit more than 20 home runs in any season despite having a huge projection of power. At present, it’s more important that Ockimey keeps his batting eye and shows the ability to hit well enough to keep advancing.

Ockimey hit 18 home runs two years ago, but after a fast start his bat went ice cold and he finished the season with a .226 batting average. Despite such a low average, he got on base at a very respectable .364 clip thanks to his 88 walks. This is what I believe can help him become a regular at the big league level if he shows he can hit enough. With power and a great batting eye he could be a valuable player even if he batted .240. Last season he was able to bat .274 with a .385 on base percentage between two levels. Starting in AA Portland this year, if Ockimey can keep his average and walks in line with that he could crack the top 100 next season. There is still a wide range of possible scenarios for him, but he seems to have a good head on his shoulders.

Photo credit: Kelly O’Connor

If Things Fall Right

Mike Shawaryn

Shawaryn was a potential first round pick after his sophomore season at Maryland. That season he went 13-2 with a 1.71 ERA. After battling some injuries his junior season, Shawaryn fell to the 5th round. He had still performed well though, posting a 3.18 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. Shawaryn has continued to produce in the Minor Leagues, posting an ERA below 4.00 at all three levels. Last year was his first full season and he struck out 169 batters over 135 innings between two levels. If he can show similar results this year he should have a chance to make the list in 2019.

Bobby Dalbec

Dalbec took a step back this year after looking like one of the Red Sox top hitting prospects the year before. Dalbec both pitched and hit well in college, and could always give pitching a shot if hitting fails him. Before that though, he will see if he can rebound. Dalbec has big power, so if he can hit the ball more consistently he could develop into a Major Leaguer down the road. He batted .386 with 7 home runs in Lowell two years ago after being drafted in the 4th round. Last year he fell off to .246, although he did post a .345 on base percentage.

Right now, there is too much swing and miss to his game, if he can cut back on the strike outs his power might be able to play up more. If that happens, maybe Dalbec has a Michael Chavis type breakout this season. If that happened, along with his strong arm from third base Dalbec would certainly join the top 100 next year. The range of outcomes on him is large.

Photo by Peter Aiken

Dark Horse Candidates

Cole Brannen

Brannen was the Red Sox second round draft pick last season out of high school. He would likely need to have a strong showing this season to gain consideration from Baseball America since he is so young and not yet in full season ball. Brannen doesn’t have much power but projects to hit for good averages and is a speedy outfielder.

Alex Scherff

Another draft pick of the Red Sox last season, Scherff was a 5th round pick out of high school. He could have been a higher pick, but fell due to concerns over whether he would sign or go to college. Scherff already throws in the mid-90’s, occasionally reaching the upper 90’s. He will have to dominate low-A hitters this season to have a shot at the Baseball America top 100 next year.

Darwinzon Hernandez

Hernandez’ fastball was rated as the best in the system by Baseball America. Hernandez was 20 years old last season pitching in full season Greenville. He struck out over a batter per inning while showing off good stuff. If he can gain more consistency with his secondary offerings he could make a huge leap this coming season.

Roldani Baldwin

Baldwin is a lesser known Red Sox prospect who comes in all the way down at number 32 on sox prospects. Signed out of the Dominican back in 2014, Baldwin is still only 21 years old. Last season at Greenville he batted .274 with an impressive .489 slugging percentage. He shows good pop, hitting 14 home runs and 35 doubles in 368 at-bats last year. Oh, did I mention he was a catcher? Converted back to the position for last year, Baldwin threw out one-third of potential base stealers while showing the ability to play backstop. He might be a longshot to make the top 100 next year, but he is an intriguing dark horse to watch behind the plate moving forward.

Roldani Baldwin swinging (Bryan Green)

Featured picture from Over the Monster.