Author Archives: @dylan_gale17

About @dylan_gale17

21 year old communications major at Suffolk University from Andover, Massachusetts. I've always loved hockey just as much as I love to write, so I figured why not combine my favorite two things.

The Under Appreciation of Tuukka Rask- By the Numbers

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It’s no secret that fans of Boston sports have become spoiled over the years. Our four teams have collectively won ten championships since 2001 and Boston is the winningest sports city of the 21st century. It’s a great label to have, but these consistent banners have led to fans expecting nearly unattainable results. High expectations are nothing new in Boston, but Tuukka Rask shouldn’t be under any scrutiny.

A DEPENDABLE ASSET

Rask has a .922 career save percentage to go with a 2.26 goals-against average. Anybody would admit that these are solid numbers, but most don’t realize just how impressive they really are. According to www.quanthockey.com, Rask leads all active NHL goalies in both categories. He beats out Lundqvist, Schneider, Quick and all the other superstar goalies in the NHL. Fans might want to consider this before begging for someone else.

He’s also yet to have his first statistically “bad” NHL season. The league average for save percentage typically hovers around .915, which is the lowest Rask has ever gone in a single season. This essentially means that even in his worst season, he was still average in comparison to the other goalies around the league.

His goals-against average is just as impressive.  The league average spiked 7% this season but it usually hovers around 2.6. Rask’s career low is 2.67, and this speaks volumes to his consistency.  Even in an off year, he’ll still allow less than three goals per game.  That’s the kind of dependability teams need to be successful.

His play in the postseason, believe it or not, is even better.  He has a career goals-against average of 2.25 and a .924 save percentage, both of which top his career regular season stats.  Goalies are under an even bigger microscope in the playoffs, but this is a guy you can win a cup with.

A FLAWED PERCEPTION

The reality is that Bruins fans have been spoiled by both Tim Thomas and Tuukka Rask.  Even the backups have been reliable.  It’s been so steady between the pipes that some fans have forgotten what bad goaltending is actually like.

Rask has been a victim of high expectations, and the Bruins are incredibly lucky to have him signed through 2021.

J.D. Martinez Is Proving His Worth

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The city of Boston is all too familiar with big name players failing to meet expectations. Just look at guys like Daisuke, Pablo Sandoval, or Carl Crawford to name a few. The pressure of playing in Boston isn’t for everyone, but J.D. Martinez is looking good.

 

AN OFFENSIVE DYNAMO

Manager Alex Cora has slotted Martinez in the clean-up spot all season, and it seems to be paying off. His 32 hits through 97 at-bats accumulates to a .330 average, which is good for fourth on the team. Martinez is also leading the Sox with 22 RBI’s. This puts him on pace for 143 by the end of the season.  He won’t keep this rate up, but it’s exactly what you want to see out of your cleanup hitter.

He’s been driving in runs, but power is his biggest asset.  Martinez is second on the team with five home runs, but it’s only April.  He’s a righty at the plate and he’ll send plenty of balls over the Green monster as the season progresses.  He’s coming off a career high 45 home run season, and should be able to take full advantage of Fenway Park.  This is an area where the Red Sox desperately need help, finishing 27th in the league last season.

Martinez also puts up consistent batting averages.  He’s hit over .300 in each of the last two seasons and three times in his seven-year career.  Eduardo Nunez was the team’s only .300 hitter in 2017, so Martinez will add some depth on that front as well.

MARTINEZ IS FILLING THE VOID

There will be high expectations during his first year in Boston, but so far J.D. is living up to the hype.  He’s a solid all-around hitter and will fill plenty of gaps in the Red Sox lineup.  It looks like this might be a golden acquisition for the Sox.

Giancarlo Stanton Can’t Handle the Pressure of New York

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It wasn’t long ago that Red Sox Nation was collectively brought to its hands and knees, begging for Giancarlo Stanton. He has the power that the Sox need, and one can only imagine the damage he’d do at Fenway Park.  He hit 59 home runs last season in Miami, which could translate to 70+ in Boston. It could’ve been a great fit, but this selling point wasn’t enough.  Following in the footsteps of Alex Rodriguez, Stanton is now a New York Yankee.  Missing out on Stanton is tough, but he isn’t looking like the $25,000,000 man he’s made out to be.

DISSECTING THE NUMBERS

Through 20 games and 91 plate appearances, Stanton has racked up a grand total of 15 hits. This accumulates to a .185 batting average, and his home run production doesn’t made him look any better. He has four home runs on the season, which puts him on pace for 32 by year’s end. This would be a 46% decrease from his total a year ago. It’s not a good look for the reigning home run champion.  He has the potential to tear the cover off the ball, but it isn’t happening yet in New York.  Hitting for power is his forte, so this is surely frustrating for the Yankees.

Stanton’s stats at home are particularly atrocious.  As if things could get even worse, he has a dismal .100 average in front of his home fans.  This is the last thing that the Yankees envisioned, but going 0 for 5 and 0 for 7 in the same week isn’t going to help the numbers.  The strikeouts are also an issue.  He’s currently averaging 1.6 strikeouts per game with a total of 32 K’s.  This is way up from his 1.05 strikeouts per game through eight years in Miami.  He really just seems out of sync from the player he’s been his whole career.

These aren’t numbers you’d expect out of Stanton, but he just seems uncomfortable all around.  Striking out five times is in two separate games is unprecedented for a player of this caliber.   This just goes to show how much he’s in his own head.  His confidence is at rock bottom, and this isn’t helping anything.

ADAPTING TO THE CULTURE

If Stanton were to continue on this trajectory, he would finish his first season in New York hitting .185 with 32 home runs, 97 RBI’s, and 259 strikeouts.  This isn’t what the Yankees are paying him to do.  He is yet to earn a dime of his $25,000,000 salary, and the fans are letting him hear it.  He’s been consistently showered with boos and as a result his production has declined even more.  This is all part of playing in a New York, and Stanton needs to learn how to block out the noise.

The Yankees have a passionate fan base and Stanton needs to produce to get on their good side.  If you don’t play up to your capabilities, the fans will be tough on you.  It’s that simple.  The same thing applies to Boston and the other major sports cities around the country.  Nobody gets a free pass because of who they once were.  You’re only as good as your last game, and Stanton is starting to figure that out.  Things might be different once he gives the fans a real reason to cheer.  Until then, he just has to roll with the punches.

He’ll snap out of it eventually, but Stanton has yet to prove than he can handle playing in a bigger market.

Nazem Kadri Gets a Well-Earned Three Game Suspension

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You just can’t do what Nazem Kadri did on Thursday night.  Call it charging, boarding, hitting to the head- it doesn’t matter. You just can’t do that.  Hockey has an honest and blue collared identity, but that’s gutless.

AN EFFECTIVE AGITATOR

Kadri is always ready to mix things up.  He’s like Brad Marchand in the sense that he’s most effective while playing with an edge, but this is too much.   Viciously boarding somebody on their knees directly from behind?  There’s just no respect there.  You could argue that Wingels gets his elbow up on Marner just before the hit, but it seems clean.

 

He’s an energy guy and the spark-plug of the Maple Leafs. It makes sense that he’d want to get physical and set the tone for a comeback, but that’s not the way to do it.  Being an agitator is a huge part of Kadri’s game, so he should know this better than anyone.

NO EXCUSES

It almost seems like he just gets too amped up and forgets where his boundaries are.  Games are more physical during the playoffs but this is inexcusable.  The hit is exactly what the Department of Player Safety is trying to eradicate.  It’s ultimately up to the players to prevent these hits, and hopefully most are more respectful than Kadri.

We’re learning more about concussions every day.  Direct hits to the head have the potential to effect somebody’s whole life.  We’ve seen it right here in Boston with Marc Savard.  Kadri knows this, but it doesn’t stop him from making a bee-line for Wingels’ head.  The hit reads “charging” in the box score, but it could be labeled as a few things.

A SPOT IN THE PRESS BOX

This is embarrassing for Nazem Kadri.  He severely crosses the line and now the Leafs are going to pay for his mistake. George Parros needed to make a statement.  The Department of Player Safety won’t tolerate hits like this just because it’s the postseason, and he gets what he deserves with a three game suspension.

Toronto Will Be No Easy Task

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We’re finally here. The season began with plenty of doubt, but the Bruins are second in the Atlantic and have started their first round match up against Toronto. They shattered expectations throughout the regular season, but right now is all that matters. The Maple Leafs are the task at hand, and the Bruins need to defeat them before they look any further. The Bruins easily took Game 1, blowing out Toronto 5-1. But last night’s showing should not teeter your expectations of this series.

 

Toronto is a young, energetic team that has quite a bit of offensive prowess.   Even with Auston Matthews spending 20 games on the IR, the Leafs still managed to finish third league-wide in goals-for.   This speaks volumes to their depth up front. 20 year-old forward Mitch Marner leads the team in scoring with 69 points. Matthews isn’t far behind at 63, and William Nylander has also made his mark by putting up 61 of his own.   Nazem Kadri got off to a slow start, but picked it up during the second half. He’s not a huge offensive threat, but look for him and Marchand to be taking jabs at each other every chance they get. That’ll be a whole game on its own. Also, look out for Patrick Marleau. He put up mediocre numbers, but he’s a veteran presence with 120 career playoff points.

Toronto’s defense is less of a concern. They were 12th in goals-against with 230, but their defensive core is weak. They have a few solid guys like Jake Gardiner and Morgan Rielly, but the others are shaky. Luckily for the Leafs, Frederick Andersen has had a career year in net.  This has kept their semi-reliable defense from getting more exposed.  Andersen set a career high with 38 wins while posting a .918 save percentage. Curtis McElhinney has also been a reliable back-up. In 18 games played he put up a miniscule 2.15 GAA to go with a .934 save percentage.

WEARING THEM OUT

Make no mistake about it- this will not be an easy first round. This Toronto team is fast, skilled, and determined. They have an excess of young talent but they could be too young for their own good. Their three leading scorers are ages 20, 20, and 21. The team relies on these players but they may not be able to handle playoff hockey.   There’s a sharp uptake in physicality during the postseason and the Bruins can play this game better than anyone.

As long as they can limit the production from Matthews, Nylander, and Marner, the B’s should be able to take the series.

 

Cover image courtesy of NHL.com.

Which Joe Kelly Will We See This Season?

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Red Sox fans don’t have much to complain about right now. The Sox are 6-1 out of the gate and have taken an early division lead. Starting pitching has been sensational, Xander’s on pace for 138 doubles, and Benintendi seems to be snapping out of the honeymoon phase. Things are looking good, but the Sox should be undefeated. Joe Kelly can’t be giving up leads like he did on Opening Day. He has the skill set to be an elite pitcher in the Major Leagues, but he’s always struggled with consistency.  He’s had a roller coaster of a career, but he can be a key piece of the Sox bullpen if all goes well.

Kelly began his Major League career in St. Louis back in 2012, and immediately made a name for himself.  His triple-digit fastball was overpowering, even as a rookie.  He posted a 5-7 record to go with a solid 3.53 ERA, while pitching mostly as a starter.  He consistently alternated between the starting rotation and the bullpen throughout the following year, but it didn’t seem to bother him.  Kelly finished his second season with a 10-5 record along with a 2.69 ERA and helped carry the Cardinals to an NL pennant.  Luckily, David Ortiz and the Red Sox made sure it stopped at that, and took home the World Series title.  The Sox ironically snagged Kelly at the trade deadline the very next season, and this is where the inconsistency started to become an issue.

THE RED SOX YEARS

He wasn’t terrible during his first year in Boston, but didn’t come close to the numbers he put up in St. Louis.  Farrell opted to slot him in a starting role and Kelly went 4-2 with a 4.11 ERA through ten starts.  After a mediocre first season with the Sox, Kelly was determined for redemption.

He was so anxious to prove his worth to the Fenway Faithful that he even guaranteed a 2015 Cy Young victory prior to the season. This gave the fans something to talk about, but Kelly set the bar too high for his own good.  He put up a 10-6 record through 25 starts but this didn’t correspond with his overall performance.  He posted a sub-par 4.82 ERA and the Red Sox finished the season at dead last in the AL East.  This was the second lowest ERA in the rotation, and far from a Cy Young caliber season.

(Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)

The 2016 campaign was even more of a train wreck.  Kelly suffered an early right shoulder impingement and was sidelined until mid-May.  He wasn’t the same when he returned and struggled consistently.  This landed him a spot in Pawtucket for a good portion of the season, but Kelly returned as a reliever for the tail end of the year.  He only logged 40 innings and put up a dismal 5.18 ERA, but finished off strong by throwing three and 2/3 scoreless innings in the ALDS.

 

Kelly was able to carry the momentum into 2017 where he solidified himself as a reliever.  He threw 58 innings over 54 appearances and nearly cut his ERA in half from 2016, finishing at 2.79.  He held hitters to a minuscule .202 average and began to look like the 2013 version of himself. Kelly even threw the hardest pitch of the entire 2017 MLB season during an at-bat against Aaron Judge.  The pitch was originally clocked at 103.5 mph but was later estimated to be just over 102, which was still the hardest pitch of the year.

AN OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE

The inconsistency is frustrating, but Kelly has true potential.  We saw how he helped propel St. Louis to an NL pennant in just his second season, and his numbers from last year weren’t far off.  He has a next-level fastball to go with a sinker, slider, curveball, and change-up, but needs to learn how to harness his velocity.  You’d expect more strikeouts out of a guy who can hit 102 on the gun.

If Kelly can perform like he did last season, the Red Sox will have one of the best 8th- 9th inning tandems in the Major Leagues.

 

Cover image courtesy of CBS St. Louis.

Patrice Bergeron Hasn’t Missed a Beat

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Patrice Bergeron is one of the premier two-way centers in the NHL. He values the defensive side of his game just as much as the stat line, and sometimes that means blocking a shot. This led to a fractured right foot which sidelined him for a month, but Bergeron is back in full form just in time for the playoffs.

Back in Black

He was slotted back into the lineup while in Minnesota and wasted no time making his presence known. Three minutes into the second period, Bergeron fed Pastrnak a perfect one-time pass in the high slot. Pasta tee’d it up and ripped a slap shot past Stalock for his 30th goal of the season. The scorecard read “Pastrnak assisted by Bergeron and Marchand”, so it doesn’t seem like much changed in a month. Later he assisted on Marchand’s fifth overtime winner- another common occurrence.

(Bruins, MA 12/23/17) Boston Bruins center Patrice Bergeron #37 celebrates his goal in the third period of the Boston Bruins vs. the Detroit Red Wings at the TD Garden. Saturday, December 23, 2017. Staff photo by John Wilcox.

His play against Tampa offered even more proof that Bergeron hasn’t missed a beat. He finished the night with three points and scored his first goal since returning to the lineup. Bergeron came out from behind the net and was the beneficiary of a beautiful tic-tac-toe play. The puck went from the tape of Marchand, to Krug, to Bergeron, to twine in a matter of seconds. This was one of the biggest wins of the year for Boston and propelled them into first place.

Bergeron continued his prominent return with another tally against the surging Florida Panthers. He extended his goal scoring streak the very next day against the Flyers. With only seconds remaining, Bergeron ripped home a loose puck to tie the game. He has a stat-line of 3-4-7 in five games played since making his return.

Bergeron’s patented two-way game is also perfectly intact. There are always concerns about a players conditioning when they go down with a late season injury, but the lungs are just fine. He’s averaged just under 20 minutes of ice time since returning which is equal to the amount he’s played throughout the season. He even played a total of 22:38 in the overtime loss against the Flyers, so he seems prepared to log the extra minutes that he’ll see in the postseason.

It’s all starting to come together for the Bruins heading into the playoffs. Bergeron’s back, McAvoy’s next, and the team is looking sharp. The top line has carried the B’s all season, and now the trio is back together. With the return of Bergeron, the Bruins are just as deep as any team in the league.

 

Cover image courtesy of NHL.com

Montreal Still Hasn’t Won a Legitimate Stanley Cup

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Montreal’s a beautiful city.  It’s one of my favorite places in the world, and the Bell Centre is absolutely breathtaking.  It’s a relatively modern arena but it’s packed with history, being highlighted by the 24 Stanley Cup banners that hang from the rafters.  This technically leads the NHL, but how many of these actually mean something?

Back in the Day

People so often forget that up until 1967 the NHL only had six teams.  In theory, this essentially means that the Bruins, Canadiens, Rangers, Blackhawks, Maple Leafs, and Red wings each had a one in six chance of winning the cup every year. The Bruins weren’t near the caliber of Montreal but still managed to win three cups during that era.  With only six teams, everybody was bound to get their name etched on lord Stanley at some point.  Montreal won 14 out of their 24 cups during this time.

Although there were only six teams, Montreal did dominate- there’s no denying that.  Just look at the late 1950’s where they won a league record five consecutive cups.  This leads to one central question- what made them so good? The answer to this is that there was no draft.  Up until 1963, teams could scout out whoever they wanted regardless of their age.

Montreal literally invented hockey, playing the first game ever right at McGill University in 1875. Like anything, it took some time for hockey to become fully globalized.  This meant that for a while the Canadiens had the best players in the world right in their own backyard.  Look at the names of all their star players from back in the day. Geoffrion, Beliveau, Morenz, Plante, Lafleur- they were all French and natives of Quebec.  It’s like when you were a kid at recess.  There was always that kid who would invent his own game, play it with his buddies, and declare himself champion every time.

Since the end of the original six era, Montreal has won 10 cups.  These are more valid than the first 14, but the last time they won was in 1993.  At the time there were still only 24 teams, so to this day the Canadiens are yet to win with a full 30+teams in the league.  The 24 banners hanging from the rafters are a nice touch to the Bell Centre, but don’t take them at face value.

 

Cover image courtesy of Eyes on the Prize.

Bruins or Lightning- Who Owns the Atlantic?

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The Tampa Bay Lightning took the league by storm in the first half of the season, but the Bruins have clawed their way to just four points back of the Atlantic Division lead. Just as it’s been all season, it looks like the Bruins and Lightning will finish with the top two seeds. Who comes in first is still up for grabs. They’re both powerhouse teams and the numbers leave plenty of room for debate over who’s more dominant.

Bruins’ Stats

Both teams share a similar goal differential, with the Lightning at +58 and the Bruins at +56. But the numbers adding up to these are drastically different. As usual, the Bruins have been a solid defensive team, allowing just 177 goals. This is the second lowest in the league behind only Nashville, who has given up 172. Defense has been a consistent strength for the B’s over the last several years and this time the scoring is right on par. They’re currently sitting at sixth in the league in goals for.

It looks like the Bruins are about to finish in the top 10 of the two most important categories. Their special teams have been solid as well, also cracking the top ten in both power play and penalty kill. They’ve converted on 22.3% of power play opportunities, while posting the third best penalty kill in the league at 82%. This is huge considering how chippy playoff games can be, and surely adds to the team’s confidence.

Tampa Bay by the Numbers

Although that all sounds promising, the Lightning are still the top offensive team in the league. They’ve been responsible for 254 circulating red lights this season, mainly thanks to Kucherov, Stamkos, Gourde and Point. These four players alone account for 44% of the teams scoring. Their power play ranks second in the league at 24%, but their penalty kill is among the worst in the league. They’ve only managed to kill off 76.8% of penalties this season, the second lowest out of any playoff-bound team.

Tampa is less of a force on the defensive side but still can’t be overlooked. Victor Hedman is having another unbelievable year with 52 points and a +26 rating, while Mikhail Sergachev has enjoyed a stellar rookie season. The recent acquisition of Ryan McDonagh is huge, too. He’s a great two-way defenseman and eats up 23 minutes a night. Vasilevski got off to a hot start but he’s had his recent struggles. He currently has .922 save percentage to go with a GAA of 2.53. These are solid numbers, but neither stat cracks the league’s top 10. He’s good, but beatable. The real challenge is dealing with Tampa’s star players up front.

Bruins vs. Lightning

These two teams lead the Atlantic, but you can make a case that either one of them is the best team in the entire league.  The main take away from their stats is that Tampa relies more on the offense while the bruins are more balanced. This makes the Lightning extremely susceptible to hitting a wall in the playoffs and puts a lot of pressure on Stamkos and Kucherov.  They’ve been great all year, but slumps are inevitable.  With a mediocre defense, these guys need to stay on top of their game. The Bruins’ versatility allows for a bit more breathing room.  Whether it’s Marchand putting up four points, Tuukka pitching a shutout, or the penalty kill going 7/7, the B’s always seem to find a way to win.  They can beat any team, on any night, in any way.

Boston Bruins left wing Brad Marchand, top, celebrates after his goal off Montreal Canadiens goaltender Carey Price (31) during the third period of an NHL hockey game in Boston, Wednesday, Jan. 17, 2018. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

Who the better team is remains up for debate. They’re currently at second and third in the league-wide standings, with Tampa at 102 points and the Bruins with 99. Time will tell if the Bruins can catch them in the standings, but they won the season series.  They’ll play them once more in Tampa on April 3rd, but the B’s won the first two meetings by scores of 3-2 and 3-0.  With all things considered, I might have to give the edge to the Bruins.  It’s almost too close to call, but Tampa’s 76.8% penalty kill draws a huge red flag.  They might have the edge in scoring, but that’s atrocious.

The Bruins have also remained steady since December while the Lightning got off to a hot start and cooled down from there.  They won 16 of their first 20 games, but the Bruins have been more consistent down the stretch.  I didn’t think I’d say this in October, but the Bruins very well may be the best team in the Atlantic.

 

Cover image courtesy of The Tampa Bay Times.

Is Brad Marchand a Hart Trophy Contender?

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Hart Trophy Contenders

As of now it appears that Nikita Kucherov, Taylor Hall, and Nathan Mackinnon are the frontrunners for this year’s Hart Trophy. Kucherov leads the league with 88 points and has dominated all season. Hall and Mackinnon have also had career years, yet both teams remain on the playoff bubble. Many fans and analysts have actually used this to strengthen the argument for both of them. They say that their individual production is essentially the only reason New Jersey and Colorado are in contention. Heading into the season neither team had high expectations, so this is a valid point. But can’t the same logic be applied to Brad Marchand and the Bruins? If we’re talking about one player stepping up his game and allowing his team to defy expectations, Marchand absolutely needs to be in the conversation.

By the Numbers

They made the playoffs last year, but the Bruins have been on the outside-looking-in for a while now in terms of being a cup contender. Prior to the season, the consensus was that the Bruins would be a bubble team come the latter part of the season. One set of preseason rankings from www.sportingnews.ca even had the B’s listed as the 20th best team in the league, falling behind Montreal, Ottawa, and Carolina.

But with Marchand continuing his dominance that we saw last season this prediction has become far from accurate. He leads the team with 67 points despite having played in 13 less games than the second leading scorer, David Pastrnak. This averages out to 1.29 points per game, good for fourth in the league and only 0.05 points per game behind Nathan Mackinnon, the current leader. This is something that the Bruins haven’t seen in a while. If Marchand can keep this pace up, he’ll have the most points per game by a Bruin in a single season since Joe Thornton back in 2002-03. Thornton managed to put up 101 points through 77 games that year, and even those numbers narrowly beat Marchand’s current points per game at 1.31.

We all know what Marchand’s reputation is outside of Boston- he’s pretty much hated unanimously. Fans, players, coaches, analysts- you name it, they all can’t stand him. He’s been suspended six times throughout his career and hasn’t made too many friends around the league. He’s always straddled the line between “chippy” and down-right unacceptable. But the effect that it has on the team is overblown.

Photo by Harry How/Getty Images

Marchand for MVP

So far this season Marchand has 53 PIMs in 53 games. This doesn’t even crack the NHL’s top 50 and averages out to just one minor penalty every other game. For some teams this would cause problems, but the Bruins penalty kill is more than capable of weathering the storm. They’ve managed to kill off 82.4% of penalties this season, good for 10th in the league. We also can’t look past how this time in the box relates to his style of play. Unlike most scorers he plays his best hockey while trying to get under the opposing teams skin. Scoring and being a pest are a package deal, and he’s equally talented in both categories.  With the amount that he throws the other team off their game, I’ll take a minor penalty every other night.

Even despite all this, it remains unlikely that Marchand will take home the Hart Trophy.  He’s missed too much time with suspensions and his reputation has taken a bigger hit than ever.  Keep in mind that the Hart trophy is voted on by the Professional Hockey Writers’ Association. Most of them probably hate him too.  But his production when in the lineup has been just as good as anyone in the NHL, and it shows with his 1.29 points per game.  He’s part of the best line in hockey and has given Bruins fans scoring that we haven’t seen in 15 years.  It’ll be interesting to see if Marchand can pad his stats down the stretch and become more of a solidified Hart Trophy candidate.