Author Archives: @greg_habeeb

W2W4: Sox-Yanks Weekend Showdown

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The Rivalry resumes tonight in the Bronx, when the 55-27 Red Sox take on the 52-26 Yankees in a battle for AL East supremacy. As is always the case when these two teams meet, there will be plenty to keep an eye on. Here are a few things to watch for this weekend’s three-game series:

Will Eduardo Rodriguez Rebound?

Rodriguez’s start on Friday night is arguably the most intriguing of the weekend. That’s no small statement, considering Chris Sale and David Price are set to toe the rubber on Saturday and Sunday. The Red Sox are 13-2 in Rodriguez’s 15 starts this season. That’s thanks in large part to run support; Boston is averaging 6.13 runs per E-Rod start.

However, Rodriguez has also been much more consistent than in seasons past. He’s only allowed more than three runs three times this year. One of those times was in his last outing, when the Mariners dealt him his first loss since mid-May (and snapped his six-game winning streak). The Sox will be hoping Rodriguez recovers and can replicate his five-shutout inning performance against the Yankees from May 10th. How he reacts to his last start will will go a long way towards telling us just how much he has matured this year.

Devers Heating Up

On June 5th, Rafael Devers went 0-3 with a strikeout and grounded into a double play. His average dropped to a paltry .223, a total nadir. JD Martinez helped sort out his swing that weekend, and Raffy has been mashing ever since. Devers entered last night hitting .291 with an .802 OPS in his last 20 games. He then proceeded to stay hot in the series finale against the Angels, mashing a solo shot to dead center:

Devers was a surprise spark last season as a rookie, though he’s struggled through a sophomore slump this year. Let’s see if he can keep the good vibes rolling in the House That Jeter Built this weekend.

Will David Price Ever Figure Out That Team in Pinstripes?

Price is on an absolute tear. Since allowing nine runs (seven earned) on May 3rd in Texas, he’s 7-1 with a 2.72 ERA. Part of the reason for his success? Price has been more effective at keeping batters off-balance. In his first seven starts, he used his changeup only 14% of the time vs. left-handed hitters, and 16% of the time vs. right-handed hitters. In his last nine starts, he’s thrown his changeup 27% of the time to lefties, and 20% of the time to righties. The opposition is having trouble making solid contact as a result. Opposing batters have only hit .160 against Price’s fastball and .138 against his sinker during this run.

Of course no matter how hot Price is, the Yankees are an ever-present thorn in his side. Price is 15-12 vs. New York in 38 career starts, but with a 4.67 ERA. Only the Mets, Rangers, and Rockies have given him more trouble, though he’s faced those three clubs a mere total of 19 times. That record includes an April 11th drubbing earlier this year. In that start, Price was shelled for four runs in one inning of work, before leaving due to numbness in his left hand.

Sunday night, under the lights, Price will get another shot at his arch-nemesis, with first place possibly hanging in the balance. Time will tell whether or not he’s up to the task.

Bring Back Baynes?

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Aron Baynes averaged 6 points and 5.4 rebounds per game last season. He only played 18.3 minutes per game, despite making 67 starts. He is technically a free agent this offseason. And yet, the Celtics seem locked in on re-signing him, despite spending a first round pick on rim-running big Robert Williams. Baynes even represented the team during Monday night’s NBA Awards Show.

It’s a surprising level of commitment to a center who has averaged only 5.4 PPG and 4.4 RPG over the course of his career. However, it makes perfect sense. Believe it or not, the Celtics actually, sort of, need Baynes.

Frontcourt Question Marks

Even after adding Williams to the mix, finding a way to retain Baynes is crucial for the Celtics’ frontcourt depth. Williams is plenty talented, but questions surrounding his attitude off the court played a major part in his slide to the Celtics at pick 27. His disappearing act the following day didn’t do much to assuage those concerns.

Even if Williams is a model citizen, Boston would still likely be reticent to lean on him from the jump. Rookies, especially bigs, often have a steep NBA learning curve. It’s tougher to make an impact offensively when you have to depend on others to get the ball, and your mistakes are more glaring on the other end when you serve as the last line of defense at the rim. Williams may mature into a Clint Capela or DeAndre Jordan caliber center eventually, but he won’t be there in October.

Daniel Theis showed flashes of promise as a 25-year-old rookie from Europe last year. Unfortunately, he tore his meniscus in March. The Celtics expect him to be ready to go for training camp, but there’s no guarantee he’ll hit the ground running right away.

Of course, Al Horford figures to start his fair share of games at center this season with the return of Gordon Hayward. However, if Boston wants him fresh for the spring, they’re going to have to pair him with another reliable big.

That’s where Baynes comes in. In addition to being extraordinarily reliable (he’s played 81, 75, and 81 games over the last 3 seasons), he’s, well, big. Theis is listed at 6-9, and Horford and Williams at 6-10. Baynes, while also listed at 6-10, is a full 15-20 pounds heavier than his fellow Celtic big men. He provides a different look and skill set, and some extra beef to stick at the rim when Boston plays larger lineups.

Aron Baynes Photos - 27 of 428

Photo Credit: Getty Images

Improved Shooting

Then there’s the matter of what happened in the postseason this spring. Baynes, who was 3-of-21 from behind the arc in the regular season, was 11-of-23 (47.8%) from three in the playoffs. At the risk of putting too much into a small sample size, this could be a substantial development. If Baynes’ new shooting touch is the real deal (and not coach Brad Stevens pulling a rabbit out of a hat) it paves the way for Boston to run 5-out line-ups nearly 100% of the time.

In a league where shooting is king, that would only raise the Celtics’ ceiling.

Other factors may come into play here. Marcus Smart may sign a max offer sheet, and the Celtics could match. Such a move may put Boston in luxury tax territory earlier than it’d like. Another team might offer Baynes a contract worth more than the C’s are willing to pay. Boston would have to opt for a more cost-effective option in that scenario.

Ultimately, Baynes is a perfect fit, and the Celtics would be foolish to move on from him too quickly. He’s a role player to be sure, but he serves a role no one else on the roster currently does. For a team with championship aspirations, the more players who fit that description, the better.

Which Celtics Target Makes the Most Sense at Pick 27?

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The Boston Celtics are slotted to select lower than 16th in Thursday night’s draft for the first time since 2012. The last time the C’s picked this low was in 2009. That year, they selected the immortal J.R. Giddens following their first NBA title in 22 seasons.

This, of course, is barring any last-second jockeying from President of Basketball Operations Danny Ainge. He could decide at any moment that the #27 overall pick would be better served as part of one of his infamous trade packages. Twitter has been buzzing with fake trades for Kawhi Leonard or a move into the top five. However, such moves seem unlikely. It appears we’re headed for a (relatively) straightforward night.

As of Monday, the Celtics have held pre-draft workouts with 17 different players, including:

  • National Player of the Year Jalen Brunson
  • Final Four Most Outstanding Player Donte DiVincenzo
  • Duke guard Grayson Allen
  • Arizona guard Allonzo Trier
  • Villanova forward Omari Spellman

Ainge mentioned in interviews earlier this month that he and his team had “tried to laser focus in to about 10 [players] at this point” for the 27th pick, taking a number of different factors into account. But which of those players makes most sense for the C’s?

Needs and Wants

Guard is the most pressing area of need roster-wise. That explains why Boston has worked out so many high-pedigree players at that position. Marcus Smart is a restricted free agent. Terry Rozier proved his value in the postseason, but his contract expires after this season. Shane Larkin was serviceable as a spot up shooter and fringe rotation guy. However, he’s more of a nice depth piece to have in the mix than an irreplaceable rotation player. And of course, Kyrie Irving‘s health and impending free agency have spawned hot takes and think-pieces across the internet for well over a month.

It’s also worth mentioning that the Celtics are thin at big.  Al Horford is Brad Stevens‘ Swiss Army Knife and Boston’s most important player. He also turned 32 on July 3rd. Aron Baynes was surprisingly effective last season. He’ll hopefully figure into the team’s plans next season. Daniel Theis is coming off a torn meniscus, and Greg Monroe is not a viable modern center.

Ainge seems to favor gritty guards and wings with strong intangibles (Rozier, Smart, Avery Bradley, Tony Allen, Jaylen Brown), especially with first round picks. That rules out a player like Trier, whose scoring is offset by often lazy defending and lack of focus.

Spellman and DiVincenzo could be high ceiling options who fit the mold. DiVencenzo has wowed at both the combine and in his individual workouts, which has only perpetuated a stock rise. Spellman could be the type of multi-faceted offensive big Ainge hoped to get with Jared Sullinger. However, I’d be surprised if either are still there at #27 based on their pre-draft buzz.

Best Options

Ultimately, I think the best bet here is Brunson, followed closely by Duke’s Allen and Georgia Tech shooting guard Josh Okogie. Brunson’s feel for the game is unmatched by anyone else in this draft class. He’s also a terrific shooter (52/41/80 shooting splits last season) with a diverse offensive arsenal that includes a developed post-game. Plus, Brunson has proven himself on the biggest stage, winning two national titles as a starter. In other words, he’ll be able to contribute immediately.

The Same can be said for Allen, who, despite his on-court antics and volatility, has been a top contributor on one of the best teams in the country throughout his college career. Okogie is a project with tremendous upside. He has all of the physical tools (6′ 4″ with a 7′ wingspan). He was also a 37.6% three point shooter at the college level. Okogie may be rough around the edges, but would be a welcome addition to Boston’s ever-growing stable of switchable wings.

Ainge will take the best player available on the board, there’s no denying that. But part of the beauty and fun of the draft is “the best player on the board” could be anyone. It all depends on who rises, and who falls. All things considered, if that player is Jalen Brunson, expect commissioner Adam Silver to call his name when the Celtics are on the clock.

Do the Red Sox Have a Balance Problem?

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There’s no denying that the Red Sox possess one of the most potent offenses in Major League Baseball. That’s what you get when you put together a lineup anchored by MVP favorite Mookie Betts and destroyer-of-right-field-bleacher-creatures J.D. Martinez. As of Saturday morning, the Sox rank:

  • 2nd in the Majors in runs
  • 2nd in HR
  • 3rd in SB
  • 2nd in ISO
  • 2nd in batting average
  • 4th in OBP
  • 2nd in slugging (and 2nd in OPS)
  • 3rd in wRC+

I could go on, but you get the picture. Boston’s ability to score repeatedly is one of the main reasons why they have the most wins in baseball and the second-best run differential. Yet, while the overall performance of the lineup on a night-to-night basis has been a strength, there are a few red flags regarding the sustainability of its production. Most immediately pressing? A void between the “good” and the “bad” so wide and deep that Michael Cera or Aziz Ansari might crawl out of it at any moment.

Highs and Lows

Here’s the Red Sox most-used lineup this season, substituting Mitch Moreland for the recently deposed Hanley Ramirez (wRC+ and plate appearances in parentheses):

  1. Betts (204 in 232 PA)
  2. Andrew Benintendi (149 in 300 PA)
  3. Moreland (137 in 197 PA)
  4. Martinez (177 in 286 PA)
  5. Xander Bogaerts (130 in 237 PA)
  6. Rafael Devers (83 in 281 PA)
  7. Eduardo Nunez (66 in 254 PA)
  8. Jackie Bradley Jr. (57 in 229 PA)
  9. Christian Vazquez (47 in 177 PA)

As for other players with more than 50 PA this year, only Brock Holt (120 in 133 PA) has a wRC+ over 100. The next highest non-regular still with the team? Sandy Leon, whose 58 wRC+ is somehow still 45 points better than poor Blake Swihart‘s 13(!?!?!?!?!?!?) in 70 plate appearances. A full explanation on wRC+ can be found here for the uninitiated, but it is useful because it serves as an all-encompassing stat that takes into account criteria like era, park factors, and total offensive performance. League average for any given season is an even 100. The best season per this metric: 2001 Barry Bonds (an astonishing 244 wRC+, or 144% better than league average). The worst (min 300 PA)? 1909 Bill Bergen (an equally astonishing 5 wRC+, or 95% worse than league average).

Worth Worrying About?

All of this is to say that the Red Sox could do with taking a page out of Thanos’ book. While Betts’ transcendent season has lifted the lineup from the jump, the gap between the haves and have-nots is alarming enough to start an Occupy Jersey Street movement at any moment. It’s great that Benintendi has slashed .340/.421/.673 since May 5th, and that Martinez is so comfortable in this lineup he’s moved on to fixing other guys’ swings. However, when almost than half of the everyday starters are producing at well below league average, it tempers expectations a bit. Can the bottom part of the order really be relied on come October? Is Holt really going to be the biggest PH threat off the bench all season? Will Dustin Pedroia ever come back, and if (when) Martinez makes his annual trip to the DL, who will step up?

The Sox don’t have those answers yet. As they make their way towards the dog days of summer, it might not even matter. But last night’s game in Seattle highlighted just how frustrating a lopsided lineup can be. Boston touched up AL Cy Young Award contender James Paxton for 6 runs (5 earned) in the 3rd inning. It was the only frame in which they scored, and the Mariners were able to stage a late inning rally against Heath Hembree and Matt Barnes as a result. With 6 weeks left until the July 31st trade deadline, you have to think Dave Dombrowski will take a hard look at balancing out this roster. After all, this team isn’t supposed to be satisfied with beating good teams in June. It’s meant to beat great teams in the fall.

Joe Kelly’s a Hero

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In January of 2015, five and a half months after the Red Sox acquired him from the Cardinals in a deadline day trade, Joe Kelly predicted he would win the AL Cy Young Award. A lot has happened since then, including 31 mostly mediocre starts across his first two full seasons in a Red Sox uniform, a demotion to the bullpen, a change in hairstyle, a foray into on-field reporting, and becoming Public Enemy No. 1 in New York. There’s also this: Kelly has become the most reliable arm (outside of Craig Kimbrel) in Alex Cora‘s bullpen arsenal.

This didn’t happen overnight. Kelly’s evolution from failed starter to quality set-up man has taken time; time that has yielded one of the more unique (and seemingly contradictory) pitch mixes in the majors. Per Brooks Baseball, Kelly’s fourseam fastball “generates an extreme number of groundballs” when compared to other RHP’s. His sinker “is an extreme flyball pitch compared to other pitchers’ sinkers”. His two main offspeed pitches (slider and changeup) have generated a ton of flyballs too. Despite this, Kelly’s groundball rate is as low as it’s been since 2016. Red Sox fans probably won’t remember Joe’s performance that year too fondly. He posted a 5.18 ERA and allowed home runs on a career-worst 17.9% of flyballs.

So what changed? First, and perhaps most importantly, Kelly has figured out how to make his blazing fourseamer wiggle a bit. His average velocity in 2017 (99.29 mph) and 2018 (98.53 mph) on that pitch is up from 2015 (97.13 mph) and 2016 (97.28 mph). Moving to the bullpen makes that an expected result. However, that has also coincided with an increase in vertical movement. Kelly’s “hard” classified pitches have had a differential movement of 9.16 this season, up from 7.17 in 2015 or 7.64 in 2016. As a result, batters are hitting Kelly with less authority than ever before. Per FanGraph’s data, 32.9% of batted balls against Kelly have been classified as “soft”, a vast improvement over his previous career high of 19.2%.

Kelly has also regained command of the strike zone. He posted a 10.4 K-BB% in 2015, and walked 5.4 batters per nine innings in 2016. He’s only walked 3.90 batters per nine innings this season. Additionally, his 15.5 K-BB% stands as a career best. It’s a simple formula, but not one every pitcher is able to crack. Fortunately for Kelly, he has had the talent and the perseverance to figure it out.

Kelly entered the game on Monday night in a tough spot. The score was knotted at zero in the bottom of the seventh with the bases juiced, and one of Baltimore’s best players at the plate. The righthander did what you’d expect from any top-notch setup man– he struck out Adam Jones on five pitches to end the inning. Cora dropped him into an almost identical situation on Tuesday night, and again Kelly delivered. This time, he got Jonathan Schoop to weakly tap into a 1-2 force out with the bases loaded. It was a two-game stretch that stood in stark contrast to prior seasons. It also stood in stark contrast to Joe’s first outing of the year, when he allowed a double and three walks in 0.1 innings of work.

At any rate, Kelly’s high-level performance and dramatic improvement may not win him a Cy Young award any time soon. However, he’s remade himself into one of the most clutch players on this Red Sox roster. He might just end up with even more meaningful hardware as a result.