Author Archives: Scott Frizzell

About Scott Frizzell

I have lived in New Hampshire my entire life. Huge Boston sports fan with an emphasis on baseball and football. Love the history of baseball and I should be given a Hall of Fame vote to help them get it right. This is my first time writing for an audience, I appreciate any support from you guys.

On This Day in Red Sox History: April 6, 1973

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April 6, 1973, brought Opening Day to Boston. The Red Sox started their season at Fenway Park against the hated New York Yankees. The Red Sox were coming off a frustrating end to the previous season, finishing a half game behind the Detroit Tigers for the American League East. The Tigers were allowed to play one more game than the Sox, giving them the opportunity to win an extra game. Both teams lost 70 games, but the Tigers got to play in the postseason. The Yankees had finished in fourth for the second consecutive season, and their powerhouse days were currently a thing of the past.

Opening Day Lineups

This game is famous for being the start of the designated hitter. The American League had just adopted the designated hitter for the season, and Ron Blomberg of the Yankees was the first player to step into a batter’s box while playing the “position.” Newly signed Orlando Cepeda was the first designated hitter for the Red Sox and batted 5th. The Red Sox were headlined by mainstays Carl Yastrzemski and Reggie Smith, along with reigning Rookie of the Year Carlton Fisk. They pitted their ace on the mound, Luis Tiant, against the Yankees Mel Stottlemyre.

Baseball-reference.com

Rough First Inning

Luis Tiant got off to a shaky start to begin the season. After giving up a lead-off hit, the Sox got a strike em’ out, throw em’ out double play when Carlton Fisk cut Horace Clarke down attempting to steal second base. A double and two walks later though loaded the bases for the first designated hitter at-bat in baseball history. Ron Blomberg worked a bases loaded walk to score the game’s first run. Felipe Alou followed with a 2-run double, making two doubles for Alou brothers in the inning as Matty Alou had started the 2-out rally with a double. Tiant got out of the inning trailing 3-0.

The Sox half of the first saw only one hit; but that hit was a home run by Carl Yastrzemski. Yaz took a Mel Stottlemyre offering out to straightaway center field for the season’s first home run.

April 6, 1973: Ed Folger of Lancaster threw out the first ball on Opening Day. Folger, who had been a minor leaguer in the Red Sox system, had his leg amputated in a farm accident the previous September. (The Boston Globe)

Sox Take the Lead

Tiant enjoyed a 1-2-3 second inning, rebounding from a rough first. The Red Sox gave him some support in the bottom of the inning, taking a lead they wouldn’t relinquish. Rico Petrocelli singled with 1 out, one of three hits on the afternoon for him. This brought up Carlton Fisk, who had batted .293 with 22 home runs and a league leading 9 triples the previous season when he won the Rookie of the Year Award. Fisk promptly tied the game by putting one up over the Green Monster in left field. This would be just the beginning of the damage he would do to the Yankees that afternoon. The Red Sox would add two unearned runs following a throwing error by Graig Nettles before the inning was over.

Nettles would gain a little bit of redemption the next half inning when he hit a 2-out home run to center field off Luis Tiant, pulling the Yankees back within a run. Mel Stottlemyre had nothing on the mound though and the Red Sox fortified their lead in the bottom of the third. A hit by Reggie Smith and a double by Carlton Fisk put two in scoring position for Doug Griffin. Griffin singled them both home, chasing Stottlemyre from the game. Griffin then scored on a hit by Dwight Evans and the Sox led 8-4 after three innings.

Red Sox Pull Away

With Lindy McDaniel on the mound for New York, the Red Sox did not let up in the fourth. A single by Yaz followed by a double for Reggie Smith put two in scoring position for the Sox with no one out. After striking out designated hitter Orlando Cepeda, McDaniel put Rico Petrocelli on intentionally; bad decision. Carlton Fisk had already homered and doubled on the day, and he wasn’t done yet. Fisk took a McDaniel offering deep to right-center field and over the wall for a grand slam. Fisk now had 10 total bases and six runs batted in and it was only the fourth inning. The Sox threatened with two more in scoring position before the inning finally ended; 12-4 Red Sox lead.

From there the Red Sox cruised to victory. The Yankees got one in the 5th, but Tiant shut them down over the final four innings for the complete game victory. This was Tiant’s first of 20 wins that season for the Red Sox. Meanwhile, the Red Sox offense tacked on three more runs in the 6th inning before calling it quits.

Red Sox 15  Yankees 5

 

Red Sox 1973 team photo (Bostonredsox.com)

 

Boston Sports Extra’s MLB Divisional Picks

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Our baseball writers have once again collaborated to make our picks for the coming baseball season. The first collaboration, we predicted who would win the major awards for this coming baseball season. Here in our second installment, we decide which teams will win their divisions, which teams will sneak in as a wild card, and most importantly, which two teams will play in the World Series.

American League East

Kyle Flanagan: Boston Red Sox

Boston will take the division over New York, simply because of pitching. Boston contains a deep staff led by Sale, Price and Porcello. In New York with Tanaka and Severino, it leaves the rest of the rotation as a toss-up.

David Latham: Boston Red Sox 

The Yankees may have acquired Giancarlo Stanton, but this is still the Red Sox division to lose. The offense should improve tremendously from last season, and the pitching should be as good as ever. This team could easily win 95-98 games this year.

Scott Frizzell: Boston Red Sox

This should be one of the better division races this season. I envision both the Sox and the Yankees winning in the low to mid nineties for games. Ultimately, I think the Red Sox will pull it out in the final week of the season. The Red Sox won the division last year with two-thirds of the lineup under-performing.

Matt O’Halloran: New York Yankees

The Yankees came close to the World Series last year, and they should win the division with the additions of Giancarlo Stanton and Brandon Drury. The Red Sox will come close, but the Yankees are more talented.

Brandon Fazzolari: New York Yankees

The Yankees will win the division because they have too much offensive firepower to overcome.

Justin Gonzalez: Boston Red Sox

The division race between the Yankees and Sox is going to be full of action from Opening Day to September 30th. The Sox have the better rotation and defense (saving runs is just as important as producing them, in my mind), but the Yankees have a slightly better offense with a deeper bullpen. Overall, I see the Red Sox as the team to beat still even though the Yankees may be better on paper. Just remember, games aren’t played on paper, they’re played on grass.

American League Central

Kyle Flanagan: Cleveland Indians

Not enough, I feel, was done around the division where any team could dethrone Cleveland.

David Latham: Cleveland Indians

So long as it’s not an elimination game, the Cleveland Indians are a very tough team to beat. They’ve still got ace Corey Kluber and star shortstop Francisco Lindor, but I feel like they take a step back this season. They’ll win a sub-par division, but won’t have much more than 90 wins.

Scott Frizzell: Cleveland Indians

The Indians are the clear team to beat in the division. Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco headline the best pitching staff in the division, and Trevor Bauer is showing some breakout potential as well. With Edwin Encarnacion, Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez, they will probably also score more runs than any other team in the Central.

Matt O’Halloran: Minnesota Twins

The Twins surprisingly made the Wild Card game last year, and the young players will develop into stars. The Indians have dominated the division for a few years, but Carlos Santana departing and an underrated division will knock them out.

Brandon Fazzolari: Cleveland Indians

The Indians should have no problem winning their third consecutive division title.

Justin Gonzalez: Cleveland Indians

It’s hard to fathom the Indians not winning this division by a good amount of games. Sure, the Twins bolstered their team by acquiring Lance Lynn, Fernando Rodney, Addison Reed, and Logan Morrison, but the Indians haven’t exactly lost any talent. Cleveland lost Carlos Santana to the Phillies, but signed a pretty good replacement in Yonder Alonso, who had 28 home runs in 2017. The Indians still have reigning Cy Young winner Corey Kluber, a great arm in Carlos Carrasco, some of the best late inning relievers in Andrew Miller and Cody Allen and an offense that can be the best in the majors.

American League West

Kyle Flanagan: Houston Astros

They got better.

David Latham: Houston Astros

This team has the roster to be dominant for at least the next five years. They just signed Jose Altuve long-term, and I can’t see a way the Astros don’t comfortably win their division.

Scott Frizzell: Houston Astros

With a full season of Justin Verlander, the Astros may be even better this season. The Astros might win their division by more games than any other division winner.

Matt O’Halloran: Houston Astros

The defending champions have a very similar roster to last year, which should lead them to a 100 win season again. Teams on the rise, such as the Angels and Athletics, are not good enough this year to dethrone Houston.

Brandon Fazzolari: Houston Astros

I cannot foresee a tight contest in this divisional race.

Justin Gonzalez: Houston Astros

There really isn’t a whole lot going on in this division other than the highly talented Astros getting even better this off-season with the Gerrit Cole trade. The Astros are just too good of a team to submit their division dominance this early.

American League Wild Cards

Kyle Flanagan: New York Yankees and Los Angeles Angels

New York was a no doubter for me, but I was close to taking Minnesota over LA. What made my decision was pitching and LA has a staff that could make a run into the Wild Card.

David Latham: New York Yankees and Los Angeles Angels

The top four teams should be world’s better than whichever team clinches the final wild card spot, but right now I’m going with the Angels. They still have Mike Trout, and Shohei Ohtani should eventually become a great contributor.

Scott Frizzell: New York Yankees and Minnesota Twins

The Yankees are an obvious choice; whichever team does win the AL East will have a playoff spot wrapped up before the division. I’ve been stumping all off-season for the Twins to sign Lance Lynn, and with him now in tow, their chances at the playoffs are greatly improved. They now have a chance at four starters with a sub-4.00 ERA to go along with a young and improving lineup. The Blue Jays could surprise and be the first team out.

Matt O’Halloran: Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Angels

The Red Sox should keep the division close and ultimately settle for a wild card spot. The Angels are a team on the rise.

Brandon Fazzolari: Los Angeles Angels and Boston Red Sox

I think the Angels will be the best wild card team as long as Big Mike stays healthy. The last wild card is going to be the spot up for grabs. It should come down to Boston, Minnesota, Seattle, Texas and even the White Sox can get in the mix. I just think over the long haul, with the Red Sox having Chris Sale available for 30+ starts and a great closer like Kimbrel provides Boston with enough to get in.

Justin Gonzalez: New York Yankees and Minnesota Twins

We are potentially looking at a repeat of last season when the AL East literally came down to the last few games. I believe the entire season is going to fluctuate between New York and Boston possessing first place with the loser taking a wild card spot. The Los Angeles Angels signed Shohei Ohtani, who could be good but most likely won’t be in his first MLB season. They also possess the greatest baseball player on the planet (which doesn’t hurt).

National League East

Kyle Flanagan: Washington Nationals

Not much of an argument here. It mainly depends on how New York’s pitching staff performs this season for them to contend against Washington.

David Latham: Washington Nationals

This is the last chance this core has. Bryce Harper is set to be the highest-paid baseball player in the league next off-season, and the Nationals know he’s not coming back. They’ll do everything in their power to finally take home a World Series. They should come close to winning 100 games, but they’ll probably still find a way to lose in the NLDS.

Scott Frizzell: Washington Nationals

This team has too much talent not to win this division. Quite frankly, they also have too much talent to not have gone further in the postseason the past couple years. With Harper being a free agent after the season, and Max Scherzer being 33 years old, the time is now for Washington.

Matt O’Halloran: Washington Nationals

The Nationals have dominated the regular season for most of Bryce Harper’s career, and there is no reason to believe that should stop this year. The NL East will be competitive because the Mets are scary when healthy, but the Nationals rotation is too dominant to be overthrown.

Brandon Fazzolari: Washington Nationals

The Washington Nationals will easily win the NL East with Harper, Scherzer and Strasburg.

Justin Gonzalez: Washington Nationals

Two Cy Young award candidates in their rotation, an MVP caliber player in Bryce Harper, all important speed in Trea Turner, and a great supporting offense with Daniel Murphy (136 wRC+), Anthony Rendon (142 wRC+) and Ryan Zimmerman (138 wRC+). This is a no-brainer.

National League Central

Kyle Flanagan: Chicago Cubs

Chicago’s only competition is Milwaukee. Milwaukee still needs the pieces in the rotation to contend against the Cubs.

David Latham: Chicago Cubs

Last year was one long World Series hangover for this club. They still boast enviable talent at just about every position, and should look more like the dominant 2016 team than the streaky 2017 unit.

Scott Frizzell: Chicago Cubs

This team didn’t seem quite as good last year following their World Series win in 2016, and yet they still won 92 games. They replaced Jake Arrieta with Yu Darvish, and John Lackey with Tyler Chatwood in the rotation. They also have a full season of Jose Quintana. I think the rotation will perform better overall and this club could approach 100 wins. The Brewers just don’t have the pitching to hang with them all season.

Matt O’Halloran: Milwaukee Brewers

A bold prediction considering that the Cubs have dominated the division for the past few years, but the Brewers were the best team in the NL Central for a good portion of last season. If they play consistently, then they will be better than the Cubs. The Cardinals are always competitive but their roster is not good enough to win the division.

Brandon Fazzolari: St. Louis Cardinals

I think the Cubs will regress some more this season and the Cardinals will overtake them.

Justin Gonzalez: Milwaukee Brewers

Finally, a team that won’t repeat in 2018. The NL Central is a division that can have a really interesting three-team race when it’s all said and done. The Chicago Cubs may still be the favorite to win the division title, but they are definitely closely followed by the Brewers and the St. Louis Cardinals. The Brewers have an offense that can go toe to toe with almost any team and a top 10 ERA pitching staff in 2017 that is returning for 2018, barring the delay of Jimmy Nelson.

National League West

Kyle Flanagan: Los Angeles Dodgers

Scariest team in baseball in means of talent: Kershaw, Bellinger, Seager, Puig, Jansen, Turner, the list goes on. Legitimate World Series contenders yet again.

David Latham: Los Angeles Dodgers

Losing a World Series like they did last season hurts, but it’s not the end of the road for the team. They still had the best record in baseball, and should remain one of the best teams in the league. Having Cody Bellinger doesn’t hurt, either.

Scott Frizzell: Los Angeles Dodgers

Barring disaster, the Dodgers should win this division handily. Fronted by Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill, the Dodgers have a lot of pitching depth. Potential future ace Walker Buehler is waiting in the wings if injury happens. Forgotten top prospect Julio Urias should make his way back in the summer to add to the depth. Youngsters Corey Seager and Cody Bellinger lead the way for a good offense.

Matt O’Halloran: Los Angeles Dodgers

A competitive division last year with two wild-card teams, the NL West should be competitive again. However, in a league full of parody, the Diamondbacks and Rockies will have hangover years. The Giants are a sleeper team, but the Dodgers are too talented to be dethroned.

Brandon Fazzolari: Colorado Rockies

I have the Dodgers taking a step back from last season. The Rockies can slug their way to a division title.

Justin Gonzalez: Arizona Diamondbacks

The Los Angeles Dodgers seem like the easy way out, but let us not forget that the Diamondbacks had the third best record in the NL and bring back mostly everyone from their impressive 2017 season. Sure, they lost J.D. Martinez to the Red Sox this offseason but here is something to note: The Diamondbacks acquired Martinez in a trade from the Tigers around the time of the All-Star game. Pre-All Star game the Diamondbacks had an OPS of .771 and Post-All Star game they had an OPS of .778. This is a team that can really thrive without JD Martinez and can pose a serious threat to the Dodgers in the end. The Diamondbacks also had the third best ERA in the majors in 2017 and can go toe to toe with any pitching staff out there.

National League Wild Cards

Kyle Flanagan: Milwaukee Brewers and San Francisco Giants

The Brewers lineup gets them to this point. The Giants pitching and health will be the deciding factor in this Wild Card.

David Latham: Colorado Rockies and Milwaukee Brewers

I’m going out on a limb with the Brewers, but I really like what the organization has built. Travis Shaw was one of the best power hitters in baseball last season, and Mauricio Dubon should soon become one of the best shortstops in the game.

Scott Frizzell: Milwaukee Brewers and Arizona Diamondbacks

The Brewers don’t have the pitching staff I would like to see, and it will cost them some wins. They really could’ve used one of the decent free agent pitchers to come aboard this season. With the additions of Yelich and Cain though, they have one of the best outfields in baseball. The Diamondbacks have installed a humidor to limit offense, and their pitching staff actually appears to be their strength. It can help them to another wild card. I like the Phillies as a surprise, “cardiac kids,” team this season under first year manager Gabe Kapler. Look for them to impress and hang in the race until late in the season. Ultimately, I think it is a year too early for a playoff berth though.

Matt O’Halloran: Chicago Cubs and New York Mets

Watch out for the Mets if their rotation can stay healthy this season.

Brandon Fazzolari: Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers

I think both of these teams will take a step back this season, but not far enough back they miss the postseason entirely.

Justin Gonzalez: Los Angeles Dodgers and Colorado Rockies

Do not sleep on the Colorado Rockies as they could be seen as a dark horse in this division as well. MVP caliber talents in Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon headline this sneakily talented team and could make a name for themselves in the baseball world.

World Series

Kyle Flanagan: Red Sox over Dodgers in 7 games

If I didn’t have the Red Sox in the World Series, the Los Angeles Dodgers will win the World Series. I mainly made my decision based on what the most exciting matchup would be for me. Bellinger and Benintendi, Sale and Kershaw, Seager and Pedroia, and let’s not forget Hanley and Puig! Sox in 7. Go Sox.

David Latham: Astros over Cubs in 5 games

The Red Sox and the Cubs both have enviable rosters, but frankly the talent on Houston is unrivaled throughout the league. They genuinely have the chance to be what the New York Yankees were at the turn of the millennium.

Scott Frizzell: Indians over Cubs in 6 games

The Indians get their revenge on the Cubs after losing a series lead in 2016. Now it’s Cleveland’s turn to end a World Series victory drought.

Matt O’Halloran: Astros over Dodgers (again)

These two teams are just too talented to bet against.

Brandon Fazzolari: Astros over Nationals in 7 games

Houston will repeat as World Champs, this time outlasting the Nationals with Verlander beating Scherzer in the deciding game!

Justin Gonzalez: Astros over Nationals in 4 games

The Astros come with a huge bulls-eye on their backs, but can be the best possibility of a team to win back to back World Series championships in recent memory.

 

 

 

Boston Sports Extra’s MLB Award Predictions

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With the Major League Baseball season almost upon us (finally), our baseball writers have collaborated to make our picks for the coming season. In this article we detail who will win the major awards for 2018; Most Valuable Player, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year for both leagues. We will follow this one up with a part two article covering our picks for the division winners and the postseason.

American League Most Valuable Player

Scott Frizzell – Mike Trout is my pick for this year’s MVP winner because he is awfully hard to pick against. Trout is the best player in baseball, and his first six seasons match up pretty favorably with just about any player in the game’s history. He could be a top ten player of all-time once he hangs them up.    Dark Horse Candidate – Francisco Lindor

Matt O’Halloran – Mike Trout seems like the best pick, as he has been for the past five years. He won the award in 2014 and 2016, and has been close to winning it in the other years. The Angels missed the Wild Card by five games in 2017, and a playoff run combined with a healthy season should guarantee a third MVP for the outfielder.    Runner up – Jose Altuve

Kyle Porch – Mookie Betts will win MVP this year because he has a lot to prove. Simply put, he got robbed of the award two years ago by Mike Trout, and he needs the numbers to get the extension he wants. With a third straight gold glove award in sight, the five tool player can rip it up offensively to which we have seen the last two seasons.

Justin Gonzalez – It has always been Mike Trout’s award to lose ever since he stepped foot in the MLB. Widely renowned as baseball’s best player, Trout seems to be catapulting himself towards a first ballot hall of fame vote already at the age of 26. Last year was seen as a down year for him since he only played in 114 games but was still able to post a 1.071 OPS, 33 HR, 72 RBI, .306 batting average while swiping 22 bags. Now batting in the best lineup he has ever been in, it is time for Trout to show us what he is truly capable of and all we can do is sit back and enjoy the show.

David Latham – It’s Altuve’s world, and we’re all just living in it. I’ve been a huge fan of Altuve ever since he entered the league, and outside of Mike Trout, there’s no other player I’d rather have on my team. He’s everything you want in a baseball player: he can hit for average, power, he’s a great athlete, and he gives 110% every single play.

Brandon Fazzolari – Carlos Correa is in the middle of a lineup that tests pitchers every step of the way, setting Correa up to produce huge numbers.

National League Most Valuable Player

Scott Frizzell – Bryce Harper has more or less become the player he was supposed to become over the last three seasons. Last year, his season was derailed by injury, but he was putting up big numbers before he went down. Now entering his first contract season, expect Harper to play as well as he ever has. I think numbers similar to his 2015 campaign are within reach.  Dark Horse Candidate – Christian Yelich

Matt O’Halloran – Nolan Arenado has been consistently great during his career, but never really talked about. It could be the Colorado market or blind fans chalking up the success to Coors, but that silence changes this year. Arenado is in a contract year, which should bolster his already impressive stats. The young third baseman is an outstanding defender and great hitter (even out of Coors). The Rockies made the wild card game last year, and another postseason berth combined with impressive numbers should get him the MVP.   Runner up – Corey Seager

Kyle Porch – Nolan Arenado will win the NL MVP award simply because of a continuation from last season. The Rockies third baseman will continue on his upward trend while earning a massive payday next season.

Justin Gonzalez – It must really suck to be Harper. I mean think about it: he has luscious hair, a beard that a lumberjack would approve of, a career WAR that is one point higher than his actual age (26 over 25), and is heading into one of the biggest contract years ever. Okay, maybe that doesn’t suck, but what I was getting at is imagine a baseball world without Mike Trout. We would be talking about Harper like he was the second coming of Ken Griffey Jr. I believe that this contract year for Harper is what will put him on the map clearly as the second best baseball player in the world.

David Latham – There are very few baseball players more talented than Washington Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper. Another guy that can do it all, Harper is set to hit unrestricted free agency at the end of 2018. Look for Harper to have an absolutely crazy 2018 before breaking the bank in 2019.

Brandon Fazzolari – Bryce Harper is a versatile performer that can hit for average and power from the left side. Barring injury, this award should be his.

Photo by Patrick Smith

American League Cy Young Award

Scott Frizzell – I like to dig a little deeper on AL Cy Young oftentimes, so my pick is going to be Lance McCullers this season. McCullers just needs to stay healthy, as he has never pitched more than 22 games in a season. His first two seasons he had a 3.22 ERA, and he struck out 11.8 batters per nine in 2016. When he went down with an injury last June, McCullers had a 2.58 ERA and 10.4 k/9. He pitched well in the postseason and so far this spring he has been lights out.   Dark Horse Candidate – James Paxton

Matt O’Halloran – Justin Verlander posted a 1.06 regular season ERA after he was traded to the Astros on August 31st. The ace was a big part of their world series run and should put up impressive numbers again. He won the award in 2011, and was a runner up in 2016. He has been consistently dominant since he entered the league in 2006, and there is no reason to believe that will stop.  Runner up – Chris Sale

Kyle Porch – Chris Sale will give hitters deja vu of his 2017 season to win the award. While working out with Jason Groome over the offseason, he has built muscle and the velocity has improved while under-exerting himself during spring training.

Justin Gonzalez – The 2017 Cy Young award runner up has some unfinished business to take care of in 2018. He got his inaugural Red Sox season out of the way and is looking to take back what was clearly his in the first half of the season. Sporting the highest career SO/W (strikeout per win) figure in MLB history, Sale does two things extremely well: strikeout batters and win games. Pitching in front of a better lineup than last season, he has a chance to have a career year. Pair all of this with his longevity boosting workout regimen and he is really in line for another spectacular season.

David Latham – For the first four months of the 2017 season, this award was Sale’s to lose. Unfortunately, fatigue set in and Sale had a rough end of the season. He ended up finishing second for the award, behind Cleveland Indians ace Corey Kluber.

Brandon Fazzolari – Chris Sale is the consummate power pitcher. He shows no signs of slowing down in his prime.

National League Cy Young Award

Scott Frizzell – Sticking with my theme of underdogs for Cy Young, I am taking Noah Syndergaard to win in the NL this year. Syndergaard isn’t quite the underdog McCullers is, but anyone not named Kershaw or Scherzer in the National League seems like a bit of one. After missing most of last season, Syndergaard is healthy and strong for this season. He came out firing 100 miles per hour early in spring.  Dark Horse Candidate – Aaron Nola

Matt O’Halloran – I could have flipped a coin between Kershaw and Max Scherzer. It is a two man race barring a major injury because they are the only best pitchers in the NL and whoever is third is a distant third. I predict Kershaw just because the Dodgers should finish ahead of the Nationals in the standings. He won the award in 2011, 2013, 2014, and was a runner up in 2017.   Runner up – Max Scherzer

Kyle Porch – Clayton Kershaw will continue his dominance by winning another Cy Young award. The Dodgers pitcher could opt out and with his 4th award he can get a huge payday.

Justin Gonzalez – Want to read a preposterous sentence? Clayton Kershaw could possibly have a better career than Trout when it is all said and done. Everyone knows that he is the best pitcher in baseball (you do know that, right?) but just how good is he? Well for starters, he hasn’t had an ERA over 2.50 since 2012 (2.53) and has only had an ERA over 3.00 ONCE in TEN seasons (his rookie year). Get my point? He already has a career WAR of 60.6 and is heading into a contract season. His recent injuries would be the only thing that would stop him from winning the award for the 4th time, but then again, injuries could happen to anybody on this list. I would be absolutely floored if Kershaw didn’t run away with the award yet again.

David Latham – Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball, and it’s not even that close. Until someone dethrones him as the best, this award will always be his to lose.

Brandon Fazzolari – Joining most others, I am picking Clayton Kershaw to win this award. It’s hard to believe Kershaw is still just 30 years old because he has been so good for so long.

Clayton Kershaw during the first inning against the Colorado Rockies, Wednesday, April 19, 2017. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

American League Rookie of the Year

Scott Frizzell – Shohei Ohtani seemed to be the clear favorite for this award before his lousy spring training. I wanted to go elsewhere with this pick anyways, Ohtani was too easy. Willie Calhoun of the Rangers is starting the season in the minors, but I think he will be up by the end of April. A former fourth round pick, Calhoun batted .300 with 31 home runs in AAA last season. In a hitter’s paradise in Arlington, Calhoun should make his mark this season.   Dark Horse Candidate – Austin Hays

Kyle Porch – Willie Calhoun has great speed not only in the outfield, but on the base path as well. If he can continue his hot hitting from the minors, he should be a lock for Rookie of The Year.

Justin Gonzalez – Eloy Jimenez ranks as the number four prospect in all of baseball and seems to be overshadowed by another soon to be star, Yoan Moncada. Originally from the Cubs organization before being traded to the ChiSox in exchange for Jose Quintana, Jimenez seems to be a player that can really be a pivotal piece towards the White Sox rebuild. The 21 year old has an eye-popping OPS of 2.381 in his first Spring Training. Jimenez recently got optioned to double-A, but there should not be any reason why the White Sox wouldn’t promote him at some point during the season.

David Latham – If Rafael Devers were eligible, I’d pick him here. However, he’s not, so the award goes to Texas Rangers outfielder Willie Calhoun. Calhoun is a power bat on a popular organization that should be average at least, so why not him?

Brandon Fazzolari – There’s a lot to like about the multi-talented Ohtani, but mostly that he’s in a lineup alongside Mike Trout.

Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

National League Rookie of the Year

Scott Frizzell – It is hard to pick against Ronald Acuña at this point. He will start the season in the minor leagues, but that is only to extend his years under team control. Acuña will be up before long and he is one of the most talented prospects to come up in sometime. Acuña has some all-around ability to his game in the vein of Mike Trout. In three stops last season. Acuña batted .325, hit 21 home runs and stole 44 bases. So far this spring, he has batted .432 with 4 homers and 4 steals.   Dark Horse Candidate – A.J. Minter

Kyle Porch – Ronald Acuña has flown through the Braves minor league system. Their number 1 prospect is expected to branch out in the majors this season.

Justin Gonzalez – J.P. Crawford seems to be one of the more overlooked players to get excited about in today’s baseball world. In a league where shortstop seems to be a position abundant with raw talent, it is hard to get noticed. However, Crawford will be the everyday shortstop for a Phillies team that has suddenly become decent. The acquisition of Carlos Santana, a full season of Rhys Hoskins and a hopeful season for Maikel Franco will really help Crawford out from the get go. His patience at the plate along with his ability to hit to all fields as well as his plus defending makes him one of the early front-runners for the NL Rookie of the Year.

David Latham – The Dodgers will be good this year, and Walker Buehler should be a big part of that. He won’t be the top arm in the rotation, which honestly should help his win total. He’s got a lot of talent, making it to the majors after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2016.

Brandon Fazzolari – If spring training is any indication, Acuña should win this award in a cakewalk.

Top Designated Hitters Long-Term

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The designated hitter “position” is old, with most of the players over 30. Two of the three best current designated hitters are over 35. So with their even further advanced age, it’s hard to keep them in the top three for the long-term. These guys will all play some in the field this year, but by and large, they will be at DH. With only half the league using the position, I will do the top five at the position with honorable mentions at the end.

1. J.D. Martinez

J.D. Martinez is an elite hitter, and still just 30 years old. This gives him a few years on the other elite guys at the position, so he should have a lot more value left in him. Since Martinez changed his swing heading into the 2014 season, he has been one of the best hitters in the game. One of the first to buy into hitting the ball in the air more, Martinez has averaged 40 home runs per 162 games played over these past four seasons. This has not come at the expense of getting on base, as Martinez has batted .300 during that span as well. His .574 slugging percentage during that time bests even Giancarlo Stanton.

As for the claim that playing in Arizona helped him? He had three excellent seasons prior to last year, and hit 38 home runs in 2015. Yes, Arizona probably helped some, but he only played a partial year there. Sixteen of his 45 home runs last year came at Chase Field, leaving 29 hit elsewhere. Take away Arizona, he likely still would have approached and possibly reached 40 homers.

2. Khris Davis

I have Davis no better than the fourth best DH in baseball, but factoring in age, I have to elevate the 30 year old above guys who are 35 and 37. He’s not going to get on base a ton, but not many players in baseball have more power. Davis has batted exactly .247 for three consecutive seasons, with his rate of getting on base ranging between .307 and .336. Not great. However, in his two years playing in Oakland, one of the best pitcher’s parks in the game, Davis has hit 85 home runs. His slugging percentage has been above .500 for three straight years and in four out of five total. Pencil him in for a .250 average and 40 home runs.

3. Edwin Encarnacion

Encarnacion is one of the elite hitters I was referencing. At 35 years old, he has five years on both guys ahead of him, which is why he’s down at the three spot. However, he is still good enough that I would prefer his two or three seasons of scaring pitchers at the plate to the four or five years of solid play others might provide. His average won’t be great, but it should be much better than Davis’. Unlike Davis, Encarnacion also walks a lot to give him a good on-base percentage.

Since becoming a full-time player in 2012, Encarnacion has averaged 38 homers per season. His lowest total in that six year stretch was 34, in a season he only played 128 games. Leaving the friendly confines of the Rogers Centre last year, Encarnacion still crushed 38 home runs for Cleveland. Despite his .258 average he had a .377 on-base percentage thanks to walking over 100 times.

4. Logan Morrison

After years of underperforming, Morrison bought into the “fly ball revolution” and broke out. He still hit just .246, but with his 81 walks he got on base at a .353 clip. The big win was Morrison’s 38 home runs. This came after he had his 31 home runs the previous two years and 42 over the previous three. Morrison hit by far the most fly balls of his career last season, but also a career high 18% of them went for home runs. That likely won’t happen again, but if he keeps hitting the ball in the air he could be a threat for 30 home runs.

5. Nelson Cruz

Cruz will be turning 38 by mid-season, but he’s just as good now as he ever has been. He is quite remarkable; consistently putting up better stats in the second half of his 30’s then he did his entire career before then. Not that he wasn’t good; Cruz broke out in 2009 when he was 29. However, Cruz had never hit 40 home runs and only reached 30 in that 2009 season before 2014. Since, Cruz has hit 39 or more home runs in all four seasons.

Cruz is easily number two for just this season, with an argument for the top spot. But turning 38 this year, he just has too many years on the other guys for me to put him higher for the long-term. Given his 42 home runs per season and .908 OPS from his age 34 through 37 seasons though, I am not betting against this guy until he shows some decline.

Honorable Mentions:

Mark Trumbo, Evan Gattis, Kendrys Morales, Shin Soo-Choo

 

Featured picture from wpri.com

The Top Right Fielders Long-Term

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Right field is a very top heavy position. Not knowing yet how the Yankees will utilize their two sluggers, they both get included in right field as that’s where they have played previously. There is also a good chance they both play right field this season, rotating between there and DH. After a group of four superstars, the position has a steep drop-off. Who helps round out the top 10 for the best right fielders to have for the long haul?

1. Bryce Harper

Harper may not have been a consistent superstar to this point, but he is still only 25 years old. Harper has also put up superstar numbers for two of the last three seasons now while healthy. With his upside, and still being only 25, it is hard to argue against him in the top spot.

One of the most hyped phenoms of all-time, Harper broke in to the Major Leagues at the age of 19. Although it took a few years for him to achieve star numbers, he was good immediately. He hit 20 homers in each of his first two seasons and won the Rookie of the Year Award in 2012. Harper truly broke out in 2015 at just 22 years old. That season he won the MVP Award after leading the league in home runs, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. He batted .330 with a .460/.649/1.109 slash line, showing the world his immense upside. Although he “slumped” to an .814 OPS the next year, Harper bounced back last season before getting injured. He again had an OPS over 1.000 while batting .319 with 29 home runs over 420 at-bats.

The biggest concern with Harper’s productivity moving forward may be health. Harper has now missed a relatively large amount of time in half of his six Major League seasons. When healthy, Harper should threaten 40 home runs with a near 1.000 OPS for years to come.

2. Giancarlo Stanton

Stanton is another superstar right fielder who has struggled with injuries. Stanton has missed significant time in four of his Major League seasons. Despite all the missed time, Stanton’s 267 career home runs place him in the top 10 for most home runs through the age of 27. That number is more than Hank Aaron, Barry Bonds, Willie Mays and Babe Ruth. Imagine how many Stanton would have if not for the injuries. Heck, the last couple years he got hurt were fluke injuries. For his career, he has averaged 44 home runs per 162 games played.

In 2015, at the time of his beaning, Stanton was on pace for a 50 home run season. Last year he achieved it for real, bashing a league high 59 home runs. Now, leaving Miami, Stanton gets to play in a hitter’s park instead of a pitcher’s park. If he stays healthy, Stanton could see a couple more 50 home run seasons in his future. Health is the key for the man who hits the ball harder than anyone I have seen.

Stanton won’t be taking aim at this ugly sculpture anymore. (Getty Images)

3. Aaron Judge

Personally, I think we just saw Aaron Judge’s career year, but after what he accomplished as a rookie, it’s hard to put him lower than three. Judge never hit all that well in the minors, posting a high of 20 home runs in 2015. He also only batted better than .280 once, back in his first season. Yet, his first year in the bigs and Judge batted .284 with a league leading 52 home runs. Strange how things work out sometimes. Judge also led the league in walks, 127, and strike outs, 208. Judge then struck out 27 times in 13 postseason games. To keep his average up, he will certainly have to cut back on his strike outs.

Diving into his numbers, 25.9% of Aaron Judge’s fly balls traveled for home runs. That is an insanely high rate, as the league average is 9.6%. I have to think that number will come down, and probably below 20%. As for his strike out rate, which was higher than 30%, that definitely will need to improve for a repeat performance. A .357 BABIP, which places him in the top 10, helped him to his .284 average despite all the strike outs.

Now, all this isn’t saying Aaron Judge is going to be a bad player. I am merely pointing out his underlying numbers which tend to show he won’t be as good moving forward. If Judge drops to a .250 batting average, with the way he walks he will still have better than a .350 on-base percentage.

4. Mookie Betts

I would not be surprised if Betts provided more value moving forward than some guys ahead of him on my list. Coming off a “down season” it is hard to justify putting him higher than 4th. He is easily the best fielder of this bunch though and he was an MVP candidate two seasons ago. Betts also has the most speed of anyone to this point, giving him arguably the most well-rounded game of the group.

Betts strikes out far less than the average player, striking out in only 11.8% of his career plate appearances. That number has been right round 11% in back to back seasons now. Assuming his BABIP normalizes, he should bounce back to closer to the player he was two years ago. That season, Betts had 214 base hits on his way to a .318 batting average. He also hit 31 home runs, 42 doubles and stole 26 bases as he finished second to Mike Trout for the American League MVP Award. He didn’t benefit from a high BABIP (.320). But last season, Betts’ BABIP dropped all the way down to .268. He still hit 24 home runs and 46 doubles though, while once again stealing 26 bases. With a return to normalcy, Betts should be around the .300 mark again this season.

As for his defense, Betts has won two straight Gold Glove Awards while posting a 5.4 dWAR. He has saved more than 30 defensive runs above average in both seasons, totaling 63 between the seasons. His 31 last year were 13 more than any other right fielder had. At 25 years old, Betts should be an all-around star for years to come.

Boston Red Sox right fielder Mookie Betts hits a double against the Seattle Mariners during the sixth inning at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

5. Domingo Santana

This is where the position drops off, though Santana is still a good player. Given a chance to start for the first time last season, Santana hit 30 home runs. Not only that, Santana exhibited the ability to draw a walk, walking 73 times. This gave Santana an excellent .371/.505/.875 slash line. The on-base percentage placed him 4th among all right fielders and the slugging percentage was 6th. Not bad for a first full season.

Santana always exhibited ability, twice hitting over 20 home runs in the minors and another time posting a .999 OPS. He was a big piece of the Astros trade to acquire Mike Fiers and Carlos Gomez in 2015 for the stretch run. Playing half a season in the bigs in 2016, Santana hit 11 home runs and posted a .792 OPS. Yes, he was much better this past season, but it’s not like the season came out of nowhere. Also, young guys are supposed to improve, right? The ability is real, if anything drops some it will be his batting average after he benefited from a .363 BABIP this past year.

6. Nicholas Castellanos

After being a third baseman his whole career, Castellanos will call right field his home this season. He played 20 games there late last year to see if he could handle it. How he performs there is yet to be determined. As for the bat, that will play in right. Castellanos made Baseball America’s top 100 list four times, twice placing in the top 25. He then spent his first full season in the majors at the age of 22. It’s not a surprise it took him a few years to start producing, but he has now had two straight excellent seasons at the dish.

Castellanos took a big step forward two years ago, batting .285 with 18 home runs and an .827 OPS. Despite a slow start last season, Castellanos hit a career high 26 home runs and led the league with 10 triples. The numbers look sustainable, as his extra base hit percentage and home run rate have held steady the last two seasons. Castellanos has also improved his strike out rate in back to back years. Turning 26 in a couple of days, Castellanos should be entering his prime.

7. Andrew McCutchen

McCutchen has the superstar name, and certainly has been one, but he is on the wrong side of 30 now. His game has shown obvious signs of decline as he no longer has the speed to steal many bases or to play center field. McCutchen looks like he will play primarily right field for the first time in his career this season as he makes the move to San Francisco.

McCutchen may not be an MVP candidate anymore, but he still has a good bat. At 31, he isn’t so ancient that we should be expecting him to continue to rapidly decline. He still should have a few good seasons left in him. He isn’t the .300 hitter he was from 2012-2014, falling short of that mark in each of the last three seasons. However, he did bat .279 with 28 home runs last season. He probably will provide more value on defense as well playing in right field. He posted negative defensive value playing center in each of the last four seasons. However, McCutchen posted positive value in a 13 game stint in right field last year.

McCutchen will call San Francisco his home after spending his first 9 seasons in Pittsburgh.

8. Jay Bruce

Bruce will join McCutchen as a 31 year old shortly after the season begins. Although the age does him no favors in my long-term articles, it’s by no means a death knell. There is no reason why he can’t continue hitting into his mid-thirties at least. He ultimately may find himself moved to first base, a position he has played a little of before.

Bruce is a fairly one-dimensional slugger. Although he isn’t allergic to walks, he doesn’t walk too often. He doesn’t hit for a high average, he doesn’t steal bases, he mostly just slugs home runs. At least he seems to be a pretty good player again. From 2010-2013, Bruce batted .262 and averaged 30 home runs per year. He then had two very poor seasons, batting .222 without posting any real value. However, he is back to being the player he was before 2014 it seems. Bruce has hit .252 the last two seasons while hitting 69 home runs. He is coming off a career high 36 home runs last season. He looks like he should be a .250 30 home run hitter for a couple more seasons.

9. Yasiel Puig

Puig is a polarizing player, both on and off the field. He looked like a future star his first two seasons, batting .305 with an .888 OPS. His arm in right field was a weapon as well as his bat. Then his play fell off the next two seasons, batting just .260 with a .748 OPS. He hit only 22 home runs combined those two years and was sent to the minors in 2016. His attitude was considered to be a problem both on and off the field.

Still just 26 last season, Puig’s play rebounded. He still hit just .263, but he clubbed a career high 28 home runs. Puig posted an .833 OPS, his best in three seasons. His play in the outfield was arguably the best of his career, putting up 18 defensive runs saved above average. Runners don’t test his arm like they used to, as Puig had just 4 assists. But he’s still holding runners, and he only made one error.

So, which Puig will we see moving forward? Can he continue to be a force on the field or will his play regress again? Puig also carries the character concerns, meaning he could affect team chemistry even when going well. Still just 27 years old, Puig has plenty of time to turn his career around.

10. Nomar Mazara

Mazara was just 20 years old when he made the majors, and he has held his own. The number 21 prospect according to Baseball America in 2016, Mazara batted .266 and hit 20 home runs. Last season, he had his peaks and valleys, showing all the streakiness one might expect from a 22 year old. When all was said and done he had hit 22 home runs, doubled 30 times and driven in 101 runners. His average dropped a bit, while his other rate stats saw incremental gains.

I believe there is more in him waiting to show the world. He was a big prospect brought to the majors at such a young age. Still just 22 at the start of the year, Mazara has plenty of development left. He’s got plenty of power in his 6’4″ 215 pound frame, and I expect his skills to become more toned and consistent. I expect Mazara to post career highs across the board this season, except maybe runs batted in.

Honorable Mentions:

Steven Souza Jr., Avisail Garcia, Mitch Haniger, Gerardo Parra, David Peralta, Stephen Piscotty, Gregory Polanco, Josh Reddick, Scott Schebler, Randal Grichuk

 

 

 

Feature picture from Federalball.com

 

The Top Center Fielders Long-Term

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Center field is the easiest position to answer who the best is, as it is home to the best player in the game. It’s Mike Trout and everyone else. Who are those everybody else? Some are household names; some are new guys on the scene on their way to becoming household names. Factoring in age in determining the best players to have for the long-term, some perennially included players have dropped to the bottom or even off my list entirely. It does not mean I don’t think they are one of the best right now.

1. Mike Trout

Mike Trout is an all-time great, and he’s only 26. He finished first or second in the MVP vote in each of his first five seasons, and would have made it six straight if not for an injury last season. Instead, he finished fourth despite barely reaching 400 at-bats. At the time of his injury, Trout was on pace for a historic season, on pace for over 50 home runs and over 30 stolen bases.

After becoming a bit more of a slugger than all-around hitter in 2014 and 2015, Trout has again cut back on his strike outs the past two seasons and led the league in on-base percentage both years. He’s back to stealing bases, hitting over .300 and yes, he hits home runs still. He’s probably going to bat .300 and have an OPS around 1.000. Trout will be a threat for 40 home runs if healthy and possibly steal 30 bases. Heck, if the Angels turn him loose like they did his rookie year he could be baseball’s first 40-40 man since Alfonso Soriano in 2006. Enjoy watching him; you might never see anyone do it better.

2. George Springer

Springer has been slowly improving every season, culminating in career highs almost across the board last season at the age of 27. Springer then homered five times in the World Series, taking home MVP honors. He has fully arrived and he is in his prime. Mostly healthy the last two seasons, Springer has homered 63 times. What he really improved on last year was making contact. After striking out 178 times in 2016, Springer cut that number all the way down to 111 last year. His strike out percentage was well above average at 17.7. Despite a career low batting average on balls in play, Springer posted the highest batting average of his career. If he can keep the contact rate up, his average could climb even more.

3. Charlie Blackmon

Blackmon was a legitimate MVP candidate last year, leading the league in hitting, base hits and triples. Blackmon homered 37 times and posted an OPS of 1.000. So why do I have him third? One, he benefits greatly from playing half his games in Coors. Blackmon is a career .346 hitter at Coors versus just .264 everywhere else. With that, his OPS is over 200 points lower playing on the road for his career. Secondly, Blackmon will be turning 32 around midseason, so he’s got a few years on the other guys.

Blackmon’s game has changed a lot the last couple seasons. In his first two full seasons, Blackmon hit a total of 36 home runs, one less than he hit all year last year. He was a gaps hitter who stole a lot of bases, stealing 43 in 2015. His stolen base numbers have dropped to 17 and 14 the last two years. In fact, his 14 stolen bases last season came with ten caught stealing. Meanwhile, his power has spiked, with his home run total going from 17 to 29 to 37 the last three years. He hasn’t even really been hitting more fly balls; just more of them are going over the fences. A free agent after the season, it will be interesting to see what he does if he leaves Coors Field.

4. Byron Buxton

Long heralded as the next big thing, Buxton may have arrived in the second half of last season. Buxton was the number one prospect in baseball according to Baseball America in 2014, and the second best in each of the next two seasons. His physical tools are matched by very few, it’s only been about if and when he could put it all together. He batted only .220 over parts of two seasons heading into last year, then was batting .216 at the all-star break last season. Did something click at that point, or did he just get lucky? Buxton batted .300 in the second half with 11 home runs, showing the world what they had been waiting for. He did benefit from a .378 BABIP though, and still struck out 63 times in 57 games.

Buxton doesn’t need to bat .300 to be a star though, he has all the tools. Buxton might just be the best defensive outfielder in the game, winning the Gold Glove last year after posting 2.8 dWAR. His 24 defensive runs saved above average last year led all center fielders. Buxton is also a great base stealer, stealing 29 bases while only being caught once. And after homering 11 times in the second half, he looks like he has 20 home run power. Even as a .250 hitter, Buxton would be a good player. Does he have more in him?

Minnesota Twins center fielder Byron Buxton makes a leaping catch at the wall in the sixth inning against the Cleveland Indians. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

5. Michael Conforto

The Mets appear to want to make Conforto their center fielder once back from injury. He is better suited to play a corner outfield spot, as he doesn’t have the range to cover center field. Conforto made 39 starts in center last year, posting a negative rating in defensive runs saved. Expected back from shoulder surgery in May, the Mets will have some decisions to make. Hopefully the shoulder injury does not have any huge impact on his bat, as Conforto broke out last season at the plate. A highly touted prospect for a couple of years, Conforto homered 27 times last season at the age of 24 before going down with the injury. He had an outstanding slash line of .384/.555/.939, a line ranking among the best in the game. Turning 25 in less than a week, Conforto could be a slugging outfielder for a long time to come.

6. Tommy Pham

Despite just playing his first (mostly) full Major League season, Pham will be 30 before the season starts. He is an interesting case in that he has always performed well, but never got a real opportunity until he was 29. Pham was a career .298 hitter in AA and .301 hitter in AAA. He performed adequately for the Cardinals off the bench in 2015, posting an .824 OPS. His numbers dropped off in 2016, but he showed some power with 9 home runs in 159 at-bats.

Pham has long since battled a degenerative eye condition, Pham has been overcoming obstacles his entire career. Finally given every day at-bats last year, Pham batted .306 with 23 home runs and a .931 OPS. That OPS placed him in the top 20 for the whole Major Leagues. He also stole 25 bases, hinting at a possible 30-30 season if he plays in 150 games. It’s quite impressive he can post such a good batting average and on-base percentage given his eyesight, hopefully it will allow him to continue to display his baseball tools.

7. Kevin Kiermaier

If Byron Buxton isn’t the best defensive outfielder, it’s because Kevin Kiermaier is. Kiermaier only played in 98 games last year thanks to injury, yet still posted 22 defensive runs saved above average. That total was only two behind Buxton. Kiermaier won the Gold Glove for center field in each of the two prior seasons, totaling 67 defensive runs saved above average. His dWAR over that three year span is 10.4. My money is still on him for the best defender in center field.

Kiermaier isn’t all glove either, and is coming off his finest offensive season. Kiermaier batted .276 last year and hit a career high 15 home runs despite the missed time. He also stole 16 bags, which would have been his second consecutive 20 steal season without injury. He’s certainly no great shakes at the plate, but he gets the job done. A solid batting average, a little bit of pop and the ability to steal a base; not a bad addition to the best glove in the outfield.

8. Starling Marte

2017 was not a good season for Marte, missing half the season due to a PED suspension. When he came back, he looked rusty and didn’t play his best ball. He finally said hello to the baseball season as it was saying goodbye, batting .322 in September with 3 home runs and 8 stolen bases. This was a reminder that Marte is a good ballplayer. The year before he had batted .311 and stolen 47 bases. Still just 29 this year, Marte should be a good hitter and a threat on the bases for a few years to come.

Over Marte’s four full seasons heading into last year, he had batted .292 while averaging 13 home runs and 37 stolen bases per year. He had twice eclipsed 40 steals in a season. He might not hit 19 home runs again like he did in 2015, as he dropped to 9 the following year. However, with a good batting average and 40 steal capability, power is not his game. Marte will be playing a mostly new position this year, after winning two Gold Gloves in left field.

Pirates’ Starling Marte hits a three-run triple against the Padres in the first inning at PNC Park Monday night. Matt Freed/Post-Gazette

9. Ian Happ

The 9th overall pick in 2015, Happ made his debut with the Cubs last year after appearing on top 100 prospect lists everywhere for two years. Happ certainly didn’t disappoint, smashing 24 home runs in only 364 at-bats. He is unlikely to have 18.9% of his fly balls go for home runs again, as they did last year. However, it is likely his contact rate and batting average will improve. Happ struck out in over 30% of his at-bats as a rookie, a number that will likely come down closer to 25%. Happ was only 22 years old for most of the season and spent less than two years in the minor leagues. He still has some developing to do.

Happ came up through the minors as a second baseman, so he also has some developing to do in the outfield. Above all that, the Cubs are putting him in center. He held his own at the position last year, posting a positive defensive runs saved in 41 starts in center field last year. Although not a large sample size, it’s a start. Only time will tell how he handles the position.

10. Lorenzo Cain

Cain is better than the tenth best center fielder in baseball right now, but he is 32. Cain’s game relies a lot on his speed, a skill that will most likely fade quicker with age than other skills. He might be a top five center fielder currently, but given these reasons, he comes in at tenth for the purposes of my list. Cain has stolen more than 25 bases in three of the past four seasons, and he uses his speed to cover a lot of ground in center field. But how will those skills look in two or three years?

Cain is also an excellent hitter. He does not have a lot of power, reaching double digits in home runs just twice, but he has hit .300 or better in three of the past four years. Last year, he bounced back from an injury-riddled campaign to bat .300 with 15 home runs. Moving to a hitter friendly ballpark in Milwaukee, there is no reason why Cain can’t equal those numbers again this year.

Honorable Mentions:

Ender Inciarte, Odubel Herrera, Adam Jones, A.J. Pollock, Chris Taylor, Michael Taylor, Aaron Hicks, Jackie Bradley Jr., Dee Gordon, Kevin Pillar

The Top Left Fielders Long-Term

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Lists have been created this offseason determining the top ten players at each position for right now. I have been writing my own series on top tens; except instead of doing them for just the here and now, mine factor in age and determine who the best players are to own for the long haul. These lists obviously differ from others, as someone in their mid-30’s isn’t nearly as valuable in the long run. So, when I put a young guy ahead of someone in their 30’s, I’m not necessarily saying I think he is going to be better this year.

1. Andrew Benintendi

I know, this takes a leap of faith on my end to think Benintendi is number one. There is another player in his 20’s who had a breakout season last year and was truly a star. So how can I put Benintendi above him? Whereas I do believe in that player’s breakout, I do not believe in the extent to which he broke out. Benintendi will only improve upon his rookie season. It might be hard to justify putting him in this spot based on what’s happened so far, but if I am holding true to myself, this is where I put him. I believe Benintendi is a star for years to come and will have more long-term value.

Benintendi is an all-around player, posting the first 20-20 season by a rookie left fielder since Barry Bonds 30 years earlier. He has a sweet swing, often drawing comparisons to Fred Lynn. He is an excellent fielder, looking incredibly smooth playing the monster in left and getting the ball quickly back to the infield. Benintendi had 11 assists from left last year, leading the league. Benintendi batted .271 last season, but was a .312 career hitter in the minors. He also drew plenty of walks, a rare quality in someone so young, leading to a .352 on-base percentage.

Based on his minor league numbers and his stature as the best prospect in baseball, I expect a lot more from Benintendi in the near future. Maybe he won’t be the best left fielder as soon as this year, but I think he will be closer than some expect. I think in the long run he is a .300 hitter with a .370-.380 on base percentage. With this would come a 25 home run bat and 20 steal potential on the basepaths. Oh, and don’t forget about that glove. Benintendi will be a star in the near future.

2. Marcell Ozuna

Ozuna is the player I referenced above. He was the best left fielder in baseball last year, and did it at the age of 26. It makes sense at that age that he would take a step forward, I’m just not sure I’m buying how much he did so. Ozuna was a career .265 hitter before last season, when he batted .312. He did have power, homering 23 times in a season twice. 37 is a large leap from 23 though. His at-bats per home run dropped from a previous best of 24.2 down to 16.6. Ozuna’s previous best ratio of home runs per fly ball was 12.6% in 2014. Last year, that number jumped from 10.3% in 2016 to 16.5% of his fly balls going for home runs last season. With the juiced balls in play, is that number sustainable moving forward if the balls are normalized?

All that said, I like Ozuna. He had shown signs of a breakout early in 2016, batting .307 with 17 home runs in the first half. It makes me believe in his breakout as a hitter, I just don’t see him hitting .312 with 37 homers again. He strikes out more than the league average hitter, so such a lofty average will be hard to maintain. He also had a .355 BABIP, higher than his career average of .318 to that point. I see Ozuna as more of a .280 hitter with possible 30 home run power. That’s still an excellent player. He also is a good fielder, taking home the Gold Glove for the position last season. Ozuna hadn’t been a good fielder prior, but he had been playing center field. He seems to have found a home in left.

3. Christian Yelich

Back to back Marlins from last year, now on different teams. Yelich played center in Miami, but in his new home of Milwaukee will be manning left field. His defense should play up in left field with less ground to cover. He is 30 defensive runs saved above average in his career as a left fielder, against a -13 total in center. He also should benefit from his new home park, which is much friendlier to hitters. Yelich is a career .280 hitter at Marlins Park, with just a .398 slugging percentage. On the road he bats .300 with a .462 slugging percentage. In his new park, and with good hitters around him, I expect we will see a full season of that road version of Yelich.

4. Justin Upton

Justin Upton is still only 30 years old, after breaking in as a teenager back in 2007. He is a notoriously streaky hitter and can be inconsistent from year to year. Two years ago he struggled all year long, then hit 13 home runs in September. Last season, he followed up a two homer July by hitting 11 home runs in August. This is a pattern he has shown his whole career. What it usually plays out to is a mediocre average with 30 home run power.

Upton is one of the biggest strike out hitters in the game, whiffing in 28.5% of his at-bats over the last two years. He isn’t going to suddenly hit for average. But he does draw some walks, and he’s likely going to threaten 30 home runs for the third straight year. Getting to bat near Mike Trout shouldn’t hurt. Upton has stolen 20 bases a couple of times, though those days might be in the past, he did steal 14 bags last year.

5. Yoenis Cespedes

Cespedes has improved mightily as a hitter the last few years. He is still a little free-swinging, but he has cut down his strike out rate some and improved his home run rate. With it, his average has climbed. A .251 hitter between 2013 and 2014, Cespedes has batted .287 over the last three years. His strike out rate the last two years has been below 20%, which is better than average. Before injury, Cespedes was well on his way to a third straight 30 home run season last year after never reaching that mark in his first three seasons.

Cespedes is dropped some because he is coming off an injury plagued season and is now 32 years old. If I were doing this list for just 2018, he might be number one. But how much longer will his body allow him to perform at a star level? He missed extended time twice last year with leg injuries.

6. Rhys Hoskins

Hoskins is the new guy on the scene, and at a new position. Hoskins played first base throughout his minor league career, but the Phillies have decided to move forward with him as their left fielder. Time will tell how he handles the position. His bat is a force to be reckoned with though, and that’s why the Phillies are making a spot for him. Hoskins hit 38 home runs in AA in 2016, posting a .943 OPS. He kept it up last year, hitting 29 home runs in AAA before his call-up. Hoskins then went on a rampage, hitting 18 home runs over 170 Major League at-bats, posting a 1.014 OPS. That’s 47 home runs between the two levels.

Can Hoskins hit like that for a full season? He has the right approach, taking pitches and working walks. He walked 37 times last season, giving him a stellar .396 on-base percentage despite a .259 batting average. His walk rate wasn’t quite that high in the minors, but he did draw walks. It seems that even if he bats .260, he could put up a nice .360-.370 on-base percentage. Couple that with his power, and Hoskins might be a star in the making.

7. Trey Mancini

Trey Mancini seems to be that type of player that scouts never love, but he just performs every year. Mancini never made a top prospects list, despite hitting at every level. In 2015, he batted .341 with 21 home runs, including a .359 average at AA. He hit .306 for his minor league career, and the production has continued into the majors. In his first full season, Mancini batted .293 with 24 home runs last season. He continues to prove his doubters wrong.

There are a couple of things he could improve upon. Last season, Mancini struck out 139 times against just 33 walks. Both rates were worse than the league average. Given more experience, he could improve that contact rate though, he was a rookie. Given his power and his minor league numbers, I am not going to doubt him.

8. Eddie Rosario

Rosario broke out in a big way last season, but he’d shown promise before then. Rosario led the league with 15 triples in his rookie season of 2015. Problem was, he also walked 15 times. The next season, he again posted solid numbers, except for walks. So what made his breakout last season when he batted .290 and hit 27 homers? Well, it wasn’t luck. His first two seasons, Rosario had a .335 batting average on balls in play. Last year, that number actually dropped quite a bit, down to .312. Part of that has to do with his increase in home runs. Rosario cut his strike out rate from over 25% down to 18% while modestly improving his walk rate. So he is showing strides at the plate.

There is some pedigree to Rosario too, as he was a career .294 hitter in the minor leagues with an .825 OPS. His .836 OPS last year looks to be pretty well in line with what he did down on the farm. He also clearly exhibited extra base ability before last season, and it would stand to reason that as he filled out some he would hit a few more home runs. Rosario is never going to walk a lot, but he should hit for a decent average with some pop.

9. Adam Eaton

At 29, Eaton is coming off a torn ACL that cut his debut season with the Nationals short. It happened early in the season, and Eaton should have no problems being back to his normal self this year. That player had been a very consistent one, posting nearly identical numbers in both 2015 and 2016.

It would certainly seem reasonable to expect stats similar to those again. Eaton doesn’t excel at any one thing, but he is a pretty solid across the board contributor. He was not cut out for center field, consistently putting up below average defensive statistics there. However, he should be a good fielder in left where he doesn’t need as much range. Eaton was 22 defensive runs saved above average as a right fielder in 2016. He’s never quite been the stolen base threat he was expected to be, but he can still steal a few bases. Eaton will give you a little bit of everything.

10. Kyle Schwarber

Schwarber’s play last season doesn’t merit a spot here, but I believe there is a lot better hitter inside him. He was coming off a big injury, and didn’t have much development time before then. Schwarber was the fourth overall pick in 2014 and proceeded to post a 1.061 OPS over half a season in the minor leagues. He again had an OPS over 1.000 the next year at the time of his call-up. The guy could flat-out hit; he had power, he didn’t strike out too frequently and he put up huge numbers. Up in the big leagues the year after he was drafted, Schwarber hit 16 home runs in 69 games and posted an on-base percentage over 100 points higher than his average. He was all the rage heading into the next season, which was over practically before it started.

It is much too early to give up on Schwarber. Everyone was in love with the guy, then after a catastrophic injury and one down season everyone wants to throw in the towel. Yes, he hit .211, but he again had an on-base percentage over 100 points higher. He also homered 30 times, and posted a solid .782 OPS. Maybe he will never hit for average like he did in the minors, but I doubt he will strike out 30% of the time and bat .211 again. He could easily win some people back this season by hitting .250 with a .350 on-base percentage and 30 home runs. I have him in the ten spot because I believe he can be a force at the plate again. Please, get the man out of left field though, he does not belong out there.

Honorable Mentions:

Adam Duvall, Marwin Gonzalez, Michael Brantley, Yasmany Tomas, Brett Gardner

 

Feature picture from wbur.org

The Top Third Basemen in MLB Long-Term

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There is a lot of talent at the hot corner. In fact, Mike Moustakas hit 38 home runs last season and isn’t even on a team as of this writing. He hit more home runs than any other third baseman last season. Yet, it’s debatable whether or not he is a top 10 third baseman moving forward. Weighing offense, defense, base running and age, these are my top 10 for the long haul.

1. Nolan Arenado

Arenado has arguably been a top five player in all of baseball three years running. Arenado led the league in both home runs and runs batted in during the 2015 and 2016 seasons. Last season he led the league in doubles while hitting a career high .309. During that three year stretch, his average season has been .297 with 40 home runs, 40 doubles, 131 RBI and a .353/.577/.930 slash line. He might be the best current player to have not won an MVP Award.

Arenado does benefit by playing half his games at high altitude, but he’d be a superstar regardless. Most players hit better at home regardless, so whereas he does receive added benefit at Coors, you can’t completely write off his elevated numbers at home. Arenado has still hit 56 homers on the road over the past three seasons, compared to his 64 at Coors. That is not much of a difference. The biggest gap is at batting average, where comfortability in a home park plays a big role. It will be interesting to watch what happens if he leaves Colorado in a couple of years, but I don’t think the drop off will be steep.

What secures Arenado in the top spot for me is his excellent defense in addition to the hitting. Arenado has won the Gold Glove all five seasons he has played in. His dWAR has been 1.9 or better in each season and he has averaged over 20 defensive runs saved per season. Among third basemen, he has led the league in range factor per game in every season.

2. Kris Bryant

Bryant just might be the most dangerous amongst all third basemen with a bat in his hands. He won Rookie of the Year and the MVP in his first two seasons. The belief is that he dropped off a bit from his MVP season last year, but that’s not as true as one might think. His home runs fell off from 39 to 29, and his runs batted in fell way off. However, if you look more closely, his other stats are very similar. His batting average was nearly identical, and he got on base at a much higher clip. His slugging percentage, even with the dip in home runs, was not much lower. This led to Bryant actually improving his .939 OPS in 2016 to .946 last year.

Bryant is always going to hit a lot of home runs. One big key for him is his declining strike out rate. Bryant is dangerous when he gets wood on the ball, so the fact he has struck out less in each season is huge. Bryant led the league with 199 strike outs his rookie season. He cut 45 strike outs off that total in his MVP season, and lowered it all the way down to 128 last year. Hand-in-hand with that, he struck out in less than 20% of his at-bats last season, down from 30.6% in his rookie season. He also walked a career high 95 times last year. With his ability to put the ball in play more often, I would be surprised if Bryant didn’t bounce back to 35 home runs this season.

Kris Bryant of the Chicago Cubs hits against the Baltimore Orioles in the first inning during a game on July 16, 2017 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick McDermott)

3. Jose Ramirez

Jose Ramirez’ star has skyrocketed the last two seasons. A lightly heralded young utility player heading into 2016, Ramirez batted .312 and hit 46 doubles that year. Last year he launched his game into a new stratosphere, hitting 29 homers and leading the league with 56 doubles. His .957 OPS was .002 behind Nolan Arenado for the highest among all third basemen. Ramirez was a legitimate MVP candidate, finishing in third place for the award.

Ramirez has a reliable glove, generally fielding what he gets to. He doesn’t have the range of some others, leaving him with mediocre advanced statistics for the position. With how good he is offensively though, he is among the best. He has a .315 batting average and .892 OPS over the past two seasons. Remarkably, he has hit over 100 doubles in just two seasons. He can run a little too, stealing 39 bases the last two seasons.

4. Josh Donaldson

At 32, Donaldson is a lot older than the guys above him. However, he is not so old that he should be dropped far down the list. He should still have several years of excellent play left in him. To this point, he has an MVP Award and two other top five finishes. He has homered over 30 times all three seasons with the Blue Jays, and his .939 OPS during his MVP season is actually the lowest of his three years in Toronto. He has an average of 37 home runs during that span and a .946 OPS.

Donaldson goes all out in the field, routinely dirtying up his jersey. He is the type of player you appreciate as a fan; a star who also gives it his all. His defense has slipped a bit the past two seasons, but he has still been above average at the position and has historically been a very good fielder.

5. Alex Bregman

Bregman was the second overall pick in 2015 and was in the majors the following year. Turning 24 around the start of the season, there is plenty of room for growth. In his first full season, Bregman struck out in 15.5% of his at-bats, an excellent mark in this day and age. He batted .284 with 19 home runs and 39 doubles. With continued improvement, I see him becoming a .300 hitter with 25 home run power. He puts the ball in play, and the hard hit contact should continue to improve with age and experience. He even stole 17 bags last year.

Bregman is average in the field, posting a 0.5 dWAR over his first two seasons. However, he was only 23 last season. Bregman also had to learn the position in the pros, as he played mostly shortstop in the minors. As someone who had the ability to play short, I would not be surprised by some defensive improvement at third as he gains more experience there.

6. Rafael Devers

Devers is practically a baby still, playing last season at the age of 20; and all he did was hit. Appearing in the top 20 of most prospect rankings two consecutive years, Devers has always been followed by a lot of hype. He batted over .300 with a .955 OPS between two minor league stops last season. When he reached Boston, he did not stop. Devers hit 10 home runs, giving him a total of 30 for the season. His approach wasn’t all or nothing either, as Devers hit for a .284 batting average. He struck out a fair amount, but the rate was not so high as to get worried. His strike out rate in the minor leagues was always in the teens too, so I would expect his rate to come down. He also has a good hitting approach, routinely using the whole field.

Devers fielding was rocky last season, but give the kid a break; he wasn’t even old enough to drink. His fundamentals at the position are sound, he just needs to keep his focus better and gain more experience. Still just 21 this coming season, I wouldn’t even be worried yet if his defense was still sub par this year. Ultimately, I believe he will develop into at least an adequate third baseman defensively.

7. Anthony Rendon

This spot for Rendon might be a little unpopular, but he’s been around five years now and just had a real breakout last season at the age of 27. I do believe he is an excellent player, but he has been fragile dating back to his college days. Before last season, he’d only had one season as good as what Bregman did last year, or even what Devers did over a partial season. I just trust Bregman more to be consistently good year to year, and I think Devers upside is much higher. If Rendon can stay healthy though, he should be a good player for a while to come.

Over his first four seasons, Rendon batted .274 with just 13 home runs per season. Accounting for injury, that number jumps to 18 home runs per 162 games. Still, not overly impressive. He has hit 20 or more home runs in all three of his healthy seasons though, albeit barely. His .777 OPS over his first four seasons jumped all the way up to .937 last season. Some of it might have to do with the lively ball, but a lot of it probably has to do with him peaking at 27 years old and being healthy for a second consecutive season. He seems like someone who could settle in as a .300 hitter with 20 home runs per year.

8. Miguel Sano

If the allegations against Sano don’t pull him off the field, he should be one of the top home run hitters at the position for years. That is, if he remains at the position. Sano has bounced between third and right field some and hasn’t been impressive at either position. He has a .941 career fielding percentage at third and a negative dWAR. Unsurprisingly, he also grades out negatively in defensive runs saved. At 6’4″ 260, Sano looks like a long-term DH. However, he is at third base for now, so on this list he shall fall.

With his huge body, Sano has immense raw power. His contact rate holds him back some, as he has struck out over 170 times in consecutive years. He has struck out in nearly 36% of his Major League at-bats. That number has to come down for him to ever reach his full potential. He hits the ball hard though when he does hit it, and that hard contact rate will lead to high batting averages on balls in play. His BABIP last season was .375, and it was as high as .396 in his rookie season. If Sano can stay on the field, he could be a threat for 40 home runs. Currently, he is averaging 37 home runs per 162 games played.

9. Justin Turner

Turner isn’t higher on this list because he is 33 years old now. The guys above him should have many more years of production in them. Turner is an excellent hitter though, putting the ball in play often and causing damage when he does. His strike out rate was best amongst all third basemen last season. A year after hitting a career high 27 home runs, Turner batted .322 with 21 homers and a .945 OPS last year.

A mechanical change at the plate and hitting the ball in the air more often have not sacrificed Turner’s contact rate. Once a utility player, Turner broke out in that role in 2014, his first season with the Dodgers. Since gaining an expanded role, Turner has batted .295 and averaged 21 home runs per season over the last three. He should still be an excellent hitter for a few more years, and that to me warrants a spot in the top ten.

Los Angeles Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner follows through on a swing for a solo home run against the New York Mets during the third inning at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

10. Kyle Seager

Kyle Seager is as steady as they come. He doesn’t wow at the plate, but he puts up roughly the same numbers year in and year out. Seager has homered at least 25 times in four straight seasons, and 20 or more in six straight. His average bottomed out a bit at .249 last season, but he had batted between .260 and .278 in each of the four previous seasons. In all, he has batted .264 and averaged 25 home runs per season since becoming a regular in 2012. At 30 years old, it doesn’t look like he’s going to change much. He is who he is, and that’s a very solid third baseman.

Seager is just as good in the field, winning a Gold Glove in 2014. He has averaged more than 1.0 dWAR over the past four seasons His range factor has also been consistently above the league average every season. Seager should be a steady contributor at the hot corner for a while still to come.

Honorable Mentions:

Mike Moustakas, Jake Lamb, Travis Shaw, Adrian Beltre, Eugenio Suarez

 

Featured picture from Mile High Sports.

The Top Shortstops Long-Term

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The shortstop position has become increasingly talented in recent seasons. The position is now the best, and deepest, arguably since Nomar, A-Rod, and Jeter were reigning supreme nearly two decades ago. The top five is loaded, and the position has great depth. The shortstops near the bottom of my top ten list would have threatened the top five a few years ago. Shortstops not making the list would have been safely included. With all this competition, it was hard to leave a few guys off.

1. Carlos Correa

Correa is coming off a season with an OPS 65 points higher than Manny Machado has ever posted. With all of Machado’s fanfare and his big home run seasons, this was a surprising revelation. Just 22 years old last season and having posted a .941 OPS, Correa is the top shortstop to own for the long haul in the Majors.

Correa burst onto the scene in 2015, winning Rookie of the Year in a little more than half a season. Over his three seasons, aged 20-22, he has batted .288 with an .863 OPS. There is only room for improvement as he enters his age 23 season. Correa missed time last year, hitting 24 home runs in only 109 games. Assuming he stays healthy, I foresee his first 30 homer, 100 RBI season this year. Correa has also proved himself on the big stage at such a young age, homering five times during the postseason last year.

Correa is also fairly polished at shortstop at his young age. He has a solid .978 fielding percentage in each of the last two seasons and has a positive dWAR in all three. According to baseball reference’s total zone runs, Correa was worth eight defensive runs above average this past season.

2. Manny Machado

Primarily known as a third baseman, and a fine defensive one at that, Machado is moving to shortstop full time for this coming season. He started 43 games at the position last year, performing adequately but posting a negative zone rating. With a full offseason to prepare, maybe he will be a little better in 2018. After all, Machado was a two time Gold Glove winner at third base.

He also needs to rebound at the plate, coming off his worst season since 2014. That’s not to say he was bad, he did hit 33 homers after all. However, Machado’s average fell from .290 over the previous two seasons down to .259. His OPS also dropped nearly 100 points. I would expect a bit of a rebound, he did finish in the top five in back-to-back MVP votes before last season. Machado has also homered 105 times over the past three years. If there is one place where his skill set lags a bit behind, it’s in taking pitches and drawing walks. Machado has drawn a total of 49 walks over the past two seasons and posted a disappointing .310 on-base percentage last year.

3. Corey Seager

Seager was my favorite prospect in baseball after batting .349 with 20 home runs in 2014. He came in 5th in Baseball America’s prospect rankings heading into 2015, and his performance catapulted him to the top of their list for 2016. Two full seasons into his Major League career and he has not disappointed. Seager has batted .305 during his short career while posting an .876 OPS. He already has a Rookie of the Year, two Silver Sluggers and a third place MVP finish.

Seager has a beautiful, level swing, leading to a lot of hard contact. Despite hitting only 22 home runs, Seager had a top 25 average exit velocity in all of baseball last season. His 25% line drive rate was in the top ten. This leads me to believe that Seager will improve upon both his 22 home runs and his 33 doubles from a year ago. Two years ago he had 26 homers and 40 doubles, and it wouldn’t even be a surprise to see him eclipse those. Even if he doesn’t, Seager is an excellent, well-rounded hitter. He has a .374 career on-base percentage with a .502 slugging percentage.

Seager made some strides in the field last year, which makes sense given he was still only 23 years old. He cut his errors down from 18 to 11 while improving his fielding percentage to .979. Seager also went from two runs saved below average in 2016 to 11 runs above average last year. He might not wow in any one category, but Seager looks like an across the board producer for years to come.

4. Francisco Lindor

Lindor turned into a very different player from the one that he was expected to be last year. Coming through the minors, he was projected to be a high contact hitter who would play excellent defense. That’s exactly what happened his first two years, batting over .300 both seasons with moderate pop. Last year, his average dropped down to .273 while his home runs more than doubled to 33. His doubles also skyrocketed, going from 30 to 44. Lindor seemed to sell out a bit for power, which wasn’t necessary given his excellent performance to that point. It leaves me curious to find out which Lindor we will see moving forward. Either way, both are excellent players.

Lindor is an excellent defender, posting a 5.7 dWAR in less than three full seasons. He has posted a 49 defensive runs saved above average during that time and has a .981 fielding percentage. His glove work netted him the Gold Glove in 2016.

5. Trea Turner

After being a top prospect, Trea Turner has been electric since getting the call to the big leagues. After getting a chance in 2016, Turner was one of the very best hitters in baseball. He batted .342 with a .937 OPS. Trea Turner is also a burner on the basepaths and stole 33 bases that season. Last year, his numbers dropped off a bit, as they almost had to. Turner batted .284 with a .789 OPS while missing some time with injury. He again showed off his wheels, stealing 46 bases in only 98 games.

I don’t think Turner is as good as he was two years ago, but is probably better than last year. When you combine the two seasons, you get a .304 hitter with an .840 OPS. With his gap power and his speed, Turner gets a lot of extra-base hits, averaging 32 doubles and 11 triples over 162 games for his career. He seems to be capable of hitting .300 with 15-20 home runs while hitting a lot of doubles and triples. All of this and he is also capable of stealing 50 bags.

Turner falls well behind the rest of the pack in the field though. Despite being relatively sure-handed, Turner does not have the range for the position. He had a decent .979 fielding percentage last year, yet his total zone rating gave him 11 defensive runs below average last season. His range factor, at 3.91, was easily below the average of 4.15. Second base could be in Trea’s future.

Brad Mills – USA Today Sports

6. Didi Gregorious

Remember when Didi was a glove first prospect? Coming through the minors, he was supposed to be a light-hitting, glove first shortstop. His defense has been decent, but nothing special to this point. However, his bat has carried him. Gregorious is one of the better hitting shortstops in baseball, hitting 45 home runs over the past two seasons. This is after he homered 26 times in over 2000 minor league at-bats. It isn’t just Yankee Stadium either, as Gregorious posted far better stats on the road last year.

One thing that holds Gregorious back some at the plate is his lack of walks. Gregorious has only drawn 44 walks over the past two seasons combined. This has led to a sub-par .311 on-base percentage despite a good .281 batting average. He doesn’t strike out much though, making consistent contact requiring fielders to make a play on the ball. Take the good with the bad and I actually think this Yankee is a little underrated.

7. Paul DeJong

DeJong is a player who wasn’t on the radar of many people last year. He never made any top 100 prospect lists, so he wasn’t well known outside of the St. Louis organization. That’s not to say there isn’t some pedigree to his performance though. DeJong was a fourth round pick in 2015 and hit 22 home runs in AA the following year. Last year he had an OPS over .900 in AAA when he got the call-up to the Cardinals.

DeJong mashed the ball at the big league level, hitting 25 home runs in 108 games. He had a .285 average for the season, so it wasn’t a power or nothing approach. Despite him not cracking any prospect lists, I think based on his high draft position and his performance in the minor leagues that DeJong’s bat is for real. His glove was relatively average based upon every metric, but that kind of bat coupled with an average glove is a heck of a shortstop.

8. Andrelton Simmons

Simmons is on here for one reason; he is one of the best defensive shortstops you will ever see. Simmons routinely makes the highlight reels for the plays he makes in the field. He has a .982 career fielding percentage which doesn’t come close to telling the whole story. Simmons tends to get to a lot of balls others wouldn’t, which can lead to a few more errors. His range is in a class by itself.

Simmons bat took a step forward last year, so it will be interesting to see if the juiced balls helped aid that or if he is making progress. After posting just a .664 OPS over the previous four seasons, Simmons had a career high .752 OPS last year. He hit .278 with 14 home runs a year after batting .281 in his first season with the Angels. He kept his average up from his Atlanta days while adding a little more pop.

9. Xander Bogaerts

Bogaerts is still only 25 despite being a part of the Red Sox World Series team in 2013. There is a pretty good chance I am underselling Bogaerts in this spot, as he was a huge prospect who has proven capable of hitting well in the majors. Bogaerts was twice a top 10 prospect in all of baseball according to Baseball America, topping out at second in 2014. He also has a season in which he batted .320 and another during which he homered 21 times. Bogaerts was off to a good start last year, batting .303 in the first half. A wrist injury caused his hitting ability to fall off in the second half and leave him with a .273 average. A healthy Bogaerts could hit .300 with 20 home runs.

If Bogaerts does rebound at the plate, his glove is still likely to hold him back some. He has a negative dWAR in three of his four seasons and negative defensive runs saved in all four. His .977 career fielding percentage at the position isn’t bad, but his range is well below average.

Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts hits a ground-rule double to right in the ninth inning of the ALCS, Game 4 at Comerica Park against the Tigers in 2013. Staff Photo by Matt Stone

10. Elvis Andrus

Andrus is someone I considered the most overrated shortstop in baseball for a few years. Given a big contract, Andrus batted just .264 with a very weak .657 OPS from 2015-2017. However, Andrus now has two consecutive years of good play at the plate in addition to his defense. After seven years in the league, Andrus batted a career high .302 while also hitting a career high eight home runs in 2016. Yes, eight was his career high after eight seasons and he somehow hit 20 home runs last year. A little change in his approach may have helped, but I am a little skeptical of him repeating that. Even still, he batted .297 a year after hitting .302. He also saved 23 runs above average on defense according to the total zone rating on baseballreference.com.

Honorable Mentions:

Jean Segura, Dansby Swanson, Addison Russell, Zack Cozart, Orlando Arcia, Trevor Story

 

Featured picture from the Sporting News

The Top Second Basemen in Baseball Long-Term

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If you were to start a team from scratch, which second basemen would you target? You need to factor in not only play, but age and longevity as well. I don’t see any debate over the top spot, but beyond that point someone could go any number of directions. From two through ten there is a lot of jockeying. I did my best to put them in order balancing age and performance, but there are still a few very solid players not inside the top ten.

1. Jose Altuve

The MVP stands head and shoulders above the rest of the crowd, even if he literally stands head and shoulders below them. Altuve has been the best second baseman in baseball over the past four seasons and doesn’t turn 28 until May. During those four seasons Altuve has won three batting titles and led the league in hits all four seasons. He has also led the league in stolen bases twice, won an MVP Award and placed third in another vote. Altuve also collected 22 base hits and seven home runs during postseason play this past year, helping the Astros to their World Series title.

Altuve has proven he can do just about anything at the plate he wants. He has transformed himself from the singles and doubles hitter he was in 2014, to someone who can pop homers over the fence without sacrificing doubles. In 2014 when he batted .341, Altuve only homered seven times while hitting 47 doubles. The last two seasons he has hit 24 home runs in each while still hitting 81 doubles. His average over these past two seasons has been .341, the same it was the year he hit seven home runs. Altuve is remarkable, without even thinking about the fact he stands just 5’6″.

2. Brian Dozier

Brian Dozier is the biggest power hitter at the position. Not only that, he steals some bags and plays excellent defense. Since his first full season, Dozier has averaged 29 home runs and 16 stolen bases per season. His home runs increased each season through 2016, culminating with him setting the American League record for home runs by a second baseman in a season (42). Not like he fell off horribly last year, homering 34 times. Dozier also stole 18 bags in 20 tries in 2016. With 76 home runs and an .871 OPS over these past two years, Dozier seems like he has settled in as a true threat.

As for his defense, Dozier has made less than 10 errors in each of the last three seasons. Last year he only made five all year, putting up a .993 fielding percentage. This led to him winning his first Gold Glove. Dozier is a great all-around player, and turning 31 this May, he should be for a while to come.

Photo by Hannah Foslien

3. Javier Baez

Baez has been consistently improving since he entered the league with large fanfare in 2014. Baez mashed a lot of home runs in the minor leagues and entered the 2014 season as the 5th best prospect in baseball according to Baseball America. He wasn’t ready for the majors though, striking out in over 40% of his plate appearances that season. Baez still rarely walks and has a lot of swing and miss in his game, but has cut back his strike out rate significantly. He has also batted .273 two seasons in a row after hitting .169 that first year. Baez homered 23 times last year and posted a .480 slugging percentage. At just 25 years old for this season, Baez can be expected to make continued improvements.

Baez is stellar in the field as well. It seemed like every night there was some highlight of him making a play this past season. He played a lot of shortstop this past season as well, but second base is his most likely position moving forward. His added versatility only makes him more valuable though. Baez has posted 3.1 dWAR over the past two seasons.

4. Jonathan Schoop

Schoop was a solid prospect, but no one expected quite what he did last year. Schoop has improved with each season he has been in the big leagues, going from a .209 hitter in 2014 to the one we saw last year. He batted .293 and hit 32 home runs last year while making his first All-Star Game. He does have his subtractors though; Schoop struck out 142 times against just 35 walks last year. This was after walking just 21 times the year before.

At just 26, maybe Schoop should be ahead of Baez at least based on last year. However, based on his approach at the plate I don’t expect Schoop to ever duplicate what he accomplished last season. I see him being closer to the hitter he was in 2016, when he batted .267 with 25 home runs while posting a .752 OPS. He is still a good player, but not the star we saw last year. Time will tell if I am wrong. One more added bonus to Schoop is his ability to play every day. Schoop has only missed two games over the last two seasons.

5. Daniel Murphy

If this list were just for this season, Murphy would place second or third. However, Murphy is 33 years old on April 1st, so his position drops a bit. Murphy also isn’t the best fielder, posting a negative dWAR in six straight seasons. Murphy is one of the very best hitters though, so his spot is safe. From 2011-2015, Murphy batted .291 while averaging 10 home runs per year. He has always been a solid hitter. Since then, Murphy has made adjustments to his approach at the plate and started hitting the ball in the air more.

Murphy took the postseason by storm in 2015 when trying to do more damage with his at-bats. He hit seven home runs in the playoffs and won NLCS MVP. He continued with this new approach and has homered 48 times the last two years while leading the league in doubles both seasons. In 2016, he came in 2nd in the MVP vote after leading the league with a .985 OPS. He has batted .334 while averaging 24 home runs, 45 doubles and a .956 OPS over those seasons. At 33, he shouldn’t decline for a couple of years still, but he also doesn’t have nearly the time left of most others on this list.

6. Ozzie Albies

Albies doesn’t even have a full season in the Major Leagues, but he looks like a potential star. Albies was on all prospect lists the past two years, and came in at number 11 on Baseball America heading into last year. He batted .304 over parts of four minor league seasons. A line drive hitter, Albies has added a little bit of pop in recent years, as power usually develops with age. He isn’t expected to ever be a power hitter, but he could hit 15 home runs while hitting for good averages. Last season he hit 15 home runs between AAA and the majors. He hit .286 with six home runs over his first 217 Major League at-bats last year.

Albies also has a lot of speed. He stole 102 bases in his minor league career. That’s over 25 stolen bases per season and he wasn’t even playing full seasons in two of those. Last year, Albies stole 21 bases in 23 tries at AAA Gwinnett. After being called up to Atlanta, he stole eight more bases while only being caught once. Albies is also expected to have a good glove, and he made only three errors with a .987 fielding percentage with the Braves.

7. D.J. LeMahieu

Whether or not you want to argue about the affects of Coors Field, D.J. LeMahieu is an excellent hitter. LeMahieu has only surpassed 100 strike outs in one season, consistently putting the ball in play. Over the past three years he has made two All-Star Games and batted .319. LeMahieu has batted over .300 in each of those seasons and won the batting title in 2016. Even playing in Coors, he doesn’t have much power, but with averages like that does it really matter?

LeMahieu is also a stellar defender at second, making just 34 errors across parts of seven seasons. He has never made double digit errors in any season, giving him a career .991 fielding percentage at the position. LeMahieu was able to capture his second career Gold Glove this past season.

8. Yoan Moncada

This selection is all about projection. At just 22, Moncada has not shown much at the big league level yet. He batted just .231 this past season, although he did put up a .338 on-base percentage. He also managed to hit 8 home runs in 199 at-bats, showing his power potential.

Moncada’s reason for showing here is his big-time potential. Moncada was third in Baseball America’s prospect rankings for 2016, and 2nd for 2017. He has not only shown power potential, but the ability to steal a lot of bases. In 2015 he stole 49 bases while only being caught three times. The next year he stole 45 bags while hitting 15 home runs. His steals have dwindled the higher he has climbed, but between AAA and the White Sox last season he did post a 20-20 season. He has the lowest floor of anyone on this list, but one of the higher ceilings.

9. Rougned Odor

Odor is not your typical second baseman. Odor strikes out a lot, never walks and hits a lot of home runs. That is someone you might expect to find at first base or DH. His power at second base is hard to ignore entirely for this list, but his questionable ability to get on base drops him down to a fringe candidate. Odor was much better the two seasons prior to last year, so based on that potential I am including him.

Odor put up a .791 OPS his first two full seasons despite drawing just 42 walks. In 2016, he homered a lot more often than he drew a walk, 33-19. It was a very strange season, as he put up a weak .296 on-base percentage but had a stellar .502 slugging percentage. Last year he homered 30 times again, and upped his walks to a still meager 32. However, his average tanked, hitting a paltry .204 for the season. I am going to assume he is better than that and put him ninth.

10. Robinson Cano

There are several options still left for this tenth spot, but I am giving the nod to the future Hall of Famer. Cano is approaching top ten all-time status at second base, if he isn’t already. But Cano is 35 now and has shown signs of decline. He is still a very good player, but being so much older and already on the decline he doesn’t have as much value as these younger players.

Cano was awesome two years ago, bashing a career high 39 homers to go with his .882 OPS. However, his other three seasons in Seattle, although good, have been far inferior. Last year he dropped off to .280 with 23 home runs. That season was more in line with what he did in 2015, leaving 2016 as a massive outlier. So in those other two seasons surrounding 2016 he has batted .284 with an average of 22 home runs per season and an OPS below .800. That seems to be more the player Cano is right now. Whereas that is still good, he only has maybe two or three seasons left like that.

Seattle Mariners’ Robinson Cano watches his two-run homer at Yankee Stadium.
Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports

Honorable Mentions:

Whit Merrifield, Starlin Castro, Scooter Gennett, Dustin Pedroia, Cesar Hernandez

 

 

Feature picture from The Atlantic