Tag Archives: Aron Baynes

Boston Celtics’ Ups and Downs – Week 9

For the first time since the opening week of the season, there wasn’t a ton to like about the Celtics’ play. They went 2-2, which isn’t terrible, but it was more about who/how they lost. A blowout to the lowly Bulls and a loss at home against the shorthanded Jazz left a bad taste in your mouth, and wins over Denver and Memphis weren’t convincing enough to cure that. The Celtics are working through one of the most grueling parts of their schedule. Fatigue has played a big factor, but Boston hasn’t done a good enough job working through it. The next few weeks will tell us a lot about this team, but until then, lets check out some Ups/Downs from Week 9 of Celtics’ action.

The Downs

WE ARE SWITCHING THINGS UP THIS WEEK PEOPLE

The Celtics’ Bench Is Regressing to the Mean

During Boston’s 16-game winning streak, team defense and grittiness covered up some of the offensive deficiencies of the bench. In the last few weeks, though, those issues became more glaring. With Marcus Morris sidelined with more knee soreness, the Celtics’ bench has been even less effective than usual. As of Dec. 17, the Boston bench is ranked 23rd in scoring (30.4) and dead last in field goal percentage (37.4 percent). The bench is streaky and can get hot, especially at home, but the Celtics need a more consistent effort on the offensive end. Brad Stevens may need to think about switching up his rotations to avoid such devastating droughts.

Missing Parts Make the Machine Slow Down

During the Stevens era in Boston, the Celtics have run like a machine. With no transcendent talent prior to this year, you could swap personnel without too much going wrong. But adding Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward cost the Celtics some depth, and replacing All-Stars with rookies makes for a very obvious drop-off in talent. When Kyrie misses time, Boston struggles to make up that gap. We saw that in a loss to the Bulls last Monday. When everyone is healthy, this team is dangerous. But take out a few key pieces, and the high-powered machine starts to look like a beat-up toaster you found at a garage sale.

Rebounding Has Become an Issue, Again

After being a terrible rebounding team last season, the Celtics started this year’s campaign as one of the better rebounding teams in the league. Aron Baynes, Daniel Theis, and some great rebounding guards limited second-chance points and cleaned up defensive possessions. Through November the Celtics ranked in the top-10 in rebounding. Over nine games in December they rank 23rd. Boston doesn’t need to win the rebounding battle every game to win, but they do need to keep it close. The Celtics got out rebounded by at least 18 in two out of the four games last week, and that won’t cut it.

The Ups

The Celtics Don’t Stay Down

With the exception of the first two games of the season, the Celtics have not lost back-to-back games all season. With the recent stretch of, lets say, not so pleasant play, Boston has found a way to bounce back after each loss. A team this young could allow bad losses to turn into losing streaks, but thus far the Celtics have been able to compartmentalize ugly performances and stop any negative momentum.

FINAL: BOS 102, MEM 93

The Celtics have won each of their last 6 games directly following a loss

— Celtics Stats (@celtics_stats) December 17, 2017

Shane Larkin Remains a Quality Backup

With Morris missing extended time, the Celtics were looking for some extra pop off the bench. Larkin has been a pleasant surprise this season and, much like a change-of-pace back in football, makes the most of his limited opportunities. Larkin competes on the defensive end, runs the pick-and-roll well, and has shown the ability to add a scoring punch off the deep bench. His 14 points on 6-6 shooting against Denver really helped turn the tides in Boston’s favor.

The Youngsters Bounce Back/Show What They Can Do

Both Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum bounced back from some less than ideal play this week. Brown had a huge 26 points (9-12 from the field, 3-4 3PT) against Denver, and Tatum put up quality numbers after lack luster games against Chicago and Utah. Brown has been a bit too inconsistent so far this season, but Tatum shows real maturity in putting poor performances behind him.

Horford said most rookie struggle to respond when things go poorly. With Jayson Tatum, he said, it's the opposite: https://t.co/b6UcWsjGoa

— Jay King (@ByJayKing) December 17, 2017

Boston Celtics’ Ups and Downs – Week 7

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Just three games, all of which were in Boston, made a light week for the Celtics. A Monday night loss to Detroit, the second best team in the Eastern Conference, started the week on a sour note. The Celtics bounced back with two wins over the 76ers and Suns later in the week. Losses are starting to pop up more frequently for the C’s, but they are still beating the teams that they are supposed to beat. Let’s take a look at the Ups/Downs from Week 7 of Celtics basketball!

The Ups

Marcus Smart Is Finding His Form

Smart has been having a terrible shooting season. While his impact on the court has still been a net positive, the scoring numbers and empty shot attempts were a problem. But maybe things are starting to come around. A pep talk from Al Horford seemingly worked, and Smart has been a much better all around player since. In three games this past week, Smart averaged 13.6 points and seven assists on 52/53 percent shooting from the field and three-point line, respectively. The numbers won’t jump off the page, but this level of production is exactly what the Celtics need from Smart. Score when he can, take quality shots (he scored 41 points on just 25 shots), and run the offense for the second unit.

Aron Baynes Back in the Starting Lineup

The Celtics’ versatility is always going to be a plus. They have the ability to match-up with pretty much any lineup that an opponent throws at them. Moving Baynes back to the starting lineup had as much to do with who the Celtics were playing as anything else. Brad Stevens has not been shy about changing Baynes’ role to try to match him up with opposing bigs, but the numbers suggest Baynes should be starting regardless.

A starting unit with Baynes, Al Horford, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Kyrie Irving has been their most used/best defensive lineup all season. A +11.5 net rating is the highest of any Celtics lineup with at least 30 minutes played, and their 90.4 defensive rating is near the top of the league for any lineup with more than 99 minutes played. Baynes anchors the defense and works the glass at an alarming rate. Boston plays better with Baynes in the starting lineup, and moving Marcus Morris to the bench for some extra scoring is an added bonus. #StartAronBaynes

Jaylen Brown Bounces Back

Brown had one of the worst games of his career against Philadelphia. He had just four points on 1-6 shooting, and a team-high four turnovers. He played just 22 minutes and had a plus/minus of -9, the only Celtics’ player in the negative. A performance like that could shake a players confidence, but Brown turned things around against the Suns. A 17-point outing tied him for second on the team in points, and his shooting splits (4-8 from the field, 3-5 3PT, 6-8 FT) were unusually efficient. Brown is young (21 yrs), but the Celtics need him to perform beyond his years. A bounce back outing like this is an encouraging sign.

The Downs

The Defense Is Starting to Slip for the Celtics

Before you jump down my throat, the Celtics are still first in the league in defensive rating (98.9). But the team’s defense has been trending in the wrong direction since the 16-game winning streak ended. In five games after losing to Miami, the Celtics are ranked 16th in defensive rating at 108.2. The offense has been getting much better, but to be elite the Celtics still need to defend at a high level. They aren’t a good enough offensive team to let their defense slip, so the recent trend is troublesome.

https://twitter.com/HPbasketball/status/937059149950488576

Too Many Turnovers

The Celtics are normally pretty good at taking care of the ball. They average the seventh fewest turnovers per game (14.3). Against Detroit, turnovers were what cost Boston the game. Seventeen turnovers led to 25 points for the Pistons. The turnovers also allowed Detroit to take eight more shots than the Celtics. Clean up some of those turnovers and maybe Boston gets the win.

Free Throws, Again

Do I even need to say anything at this point? Boston shot just 57.1 percent from the free throw line against Detroit. THEY MISSED NINE FREE THROWS! That’s basically the difference in the game. Over the last three games the Celtics are shooting 71.9 percent from the free throw line. That ranks them 25th in the league. Boston can’t afford to leave a handful of points at the line each game. It says a lot when Andre Drummond can knock down more late-game free throws than your team can.

Boston Celtics’ Ups and Downs – Week 6

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Week six of the NBA season was a busy one for the Celtics. A four-game week saw another impressive come-from-behind win in Dallas, a gritty victory on the road in Indiana with a depleted roster, and the unfortunate end to one of the more improbable win streaks in the league. The Celtics have bounced back from the end of the streak with two straight wins, but they need to clean some things up if they want to start another winning streak. Let’s jump in and check out the Ups/Downs!

The Ups

Aggressive Al Is Not so Average

Al Horford’s shooting came back to earth after a scorching week. And with the drop in efficiency, his scoring numbers decreased as well. In three games against Dallas, Miami, and Orlando, Horford had just 15 points on 6-20 shooting. But, in typical Horford style, he stepped it up against Indiana when it was needed.

With Jaylen Brown (personal) and Marcus Morris (rest) inactive against the Pacers, Horford upped his aggression on the offensive end and gave the Celtics some much-needed points. He knocked down threes and roasted defenders with some Olajuwon-esque post moves to the tune of 21 points on 8-15 shooting, his most shots in a single game this season. Horford will undoubtedly give what the game needs from him, but a more aggressive Al is never a bad thing.

A More Efficient, and Dangerous, Kyrie

Over the first 17 games, Kyrie shot over 50 percent from the field just four times. He shot at least 50 percent from the field in all four games this past week. Chalk it up to early season struggles or the weight of a franchise on your shoulders, but Kyrie has certainly turned his shooting numbers around. Kyrie messed around and shot 59.5 percent from the field this week, an even more impressive stat considering both the difficulty and volume of shots that he takes. A 47-piece in the overtime win against Dallas highlighted the week, but Kyrie getting more comfortable in the offense should have Celtics’ fans drooling.

Improved Play from Celtics’ Bench

The Celtics’ bench were atrocious coming into this week. Ranked near the bottom of the league in bench points, Boston was in need of a few sparks. Terry Rozier and Marcus Smart weren’t shooting well, but the Boston reserves turned it around. Rozier decided to never miss a shot again, scoring 40 points on 15-20 shooting over the past two games. Smart found a shooting rhythm against Indiana after being inserted into the starting lineup. Semi Ojeleye has been more aggressive on offense and Aron Baynes has proven to be a very capable bench scorer. Consistency is key, and with five straight games in Boston, hopefully the second unit can find their groove.

The Downs

Slow Starts Are Starting to Catch up to the Celtics

To be fair, the Celtics have been abnormally good at coming back from early, or late, deficits. They did it against the Mavericks and Pacers this week alone. But how long can that last? Their winning streak ended against Miami when they couldn’t dig themselves out of a tough start, and you have to imagine that they won’t be able to keep up their heroics all season. The comebacks are entertaining, but I have thought Brad Stevens would much rather just play well for the whole game instead.

The Celtics Need to Shoot Better (Duh)

Despite having the best record in the league to date, the Celtics are ranked 27th in field goal percentage. The Celtics aren’t the Golden State Warriors. They can’t sleepwalk through half of a game and then just flip the switch and score a million points. Their comebacks have been because of their defense. If the defense starts to slip, these comebacks will be fewer and farther between. This team will be scary when their shots start to fall, they just need to get their first.

Free Throws, Free Throws, Free Throws

I’m going to keep harping on this, mainly because this is my weekly column AND I WILL WRITE ABOUT WHATEVER I WANT TO WRITE ABOUT, DAD! Wait, sorry that got away from me a little bit there. Regardless, it fills me with rage to watch the Celtics miss free throws. They have moved up to 14th in the league in free throw percentage, but they are still leaving too many points at the charity stripe.

The Celtics Have A Big Man Problem In the Best Way Possible

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The Celtics have had to rely on their depth more than expected early this season. Players who, in all honesty, shouldn’t even be seeing the floor, are getting extended minutes. So far it’s working. The Celtics own the league’s best record at 10-2, and are currently riding a 10-game winning streak. Would you like to know why? It’s not Kyrie or Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown, although they all have been spectacular thus far. The Celtics are winning because of their rugged group of big men.

The depth of Boston’s front court, and their ability to contribute, has been a huge factor over the first 12 games. The play of Al Horford has been well documented, but the contributions of Aron Baynes, Marcus Morris, and Daniel Theis have gone somewhat unnoticed. This group of bigs are one of the more diverse in the league, and each player knows his role. They complement each other well, and impact the offense and defense equally. Lets dive in and break down what makes them so impactful.

Aron Baynes is the Perfect Celtic

Baynes embodies knowing your role. There will almost never be an offensive play called for him. He willingly crashes the boards, and has no problem battling with opposing bigs that may give Horford problems. Baynes is a perfect foil for bigs like Horford and Morris. While Horford and Morris excel on the offensive end, Baynes holds down the defense and takes his shots whenever they come. He never forces anything, and plays whatever role Brad Stevens asks of him. He protects the rim, gives the Celtics a physical presence in the middle of the floor, and has no problem starting or coming off the bench. Baynes is a matchup player. Traditional bigs like Greg Monroe and Jonas Valanciunas are his specialty. When the game calls for it, Baynes can even carry the offense:

Aron Baynes' 21 points matches his career high (21, 3/19/16 vs. BKN). This is the third time Baynes has scored at least 20 points in his NBA career (307 games)

— Celtics Stats (@celtics_stats) November 9, 2017

Marcus “Mook” Morris is the Celtics’ X-Factor

Morris has only played three games this season, but he is already showing what his capabilities. With a polished offensive game, Morris is a rare power forward who can get his own shot. So far, he hasn’t shown the ability to grab a lot of rebounds or get others involved, but he can score the ball. Let me remind you that he is still working his way back into game shape, and still scored 18 points against the Lakers, in just his third game this year.

Morris’ versatility fits nicely alongside many of Boston’s other bigs. Slide him in next to Horford, when an opposing team is going small, and he can guard anyone from a quick shooting guard, to a bruising power forward. If Stevens decides Baynes is the best matchup to start, Morris can head to the bench and become the number one offensive option with the second unit. We can now expect the offense to come from people like Kyrie, Horford, Tatum, and Brown. If Morris can become a good spot up shooter, and be a plus defender against opposing wings, he can make this Celtics team special.

Theis, Theis Baby!

Theis is quickly becoming a Celtics cult hero. He has proven to not only be a spark off the bench, but a reliable backup big man who can give the starters a break without giving up a lead. The 25-year old rookie has years of experience playing professionally in Germany, and it shows. His basketball IQ is through the roof, and for a backup big man, he plays solid defense. While his stats won’t wow you, Theis has been one of the more consistent players when given minutes. Theis is shooting 53.8 percent from the floor, and is averaging 1.7 offensive rebounds per game. He’s an energy player that can crash the glass, block shots, and has already created a great chemistry with bench guards, Marcus Smart and Terry Rozier.

The top four Celtics’ front court players are currently responsible for 39.6 points and 23 rebounds per game. This may not seem like a lot, compared to stacked front courts like New Orleans and Minnesota, but the improvement from last season is undeniable. With the injury to Gordon Hayward, every player will need to do more. So far, the Boston bigs have been helping to carry the load.

The Celtics Have Their Signature Win

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After the first half of the nationally televised matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder, it looked like the Celtics were cooked. This was without a doubt the toughest team they have played, and it was showing. The OKC defense was stifling the Celtics’ offense, and an 18-point halftime deficit seemed insurmountable. But in the second half, the script was flipped.

Via @EliasSports, the Celtics' 18-pt comeback marks the 6th time since 2011-12 season Boston has overcome 18+ pt deficit in regular season

— Celtics Stats (@celtics_stats) November 4, 2017

The Celtics ramped up their defensive intensity, and forced OKC into a lot of difficult shots. Possessions that resulted in open layups and dunks in the first half, were swapped out for contested mid-range jumpers. While the defense was making things difficult for the Thunder, the offense exploded. Kyrie Irving shook off a 1-9, 3-point first half to drop 22 points and six assists. Al Horford added 17 of his 20 points in the second half, 13 of which came in the fourth quarter on 4-4 shooting.

The Celtics shot just 31 percent from the field in the first half. OKC’s length and athleticism were mucking up Boston’s ball movement, and forcing them to play more isolation ball. Kyrie is one of the best iso scorers in the league, but the Celtics are at their best when the ball is moving. Kyrie, Marcus Smart and Terry Rozier got back to that style of play after the break. The ball was moving from side-to-side, which opened up more driving lanes for the guards. Kyrie attacked the basket, and was effective either scoring or kicking out to open shooters. The shots that weren’t falling in the first half started to drop, and the comeback was on.

Welcome to the Celtics, Vintage Kyrie Irving

Boston fans are still waiting for Kyrie to have a big time scoring game. Forty or 50 points, crossovers, broken ankles, and ridiculous finishes, this is the Kyrie the Celtics need. There will undoubtably be times when Kyrie goes off to carry the offense, but Boston succeeds only if Kyrie can balance his scoring and passing. Kyrie is near unstoppable on offense, but when he can break down the defense, and find shooters like Horford, Jayson Tatum, and Jaylen Brown, this team is dangerous

Kyrie Irving scored or assisted on 37 of Celtics' 64 2nd-half points after only accounting for 3 points in the first half.

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) November 4, 2017

Not So Average Al Horford

Horford has been criminally underrated during his time with the Celtics. Casual basketball fans tend to not understand the impact that he has on both ends of the floor. Horford has been silencing his critics this season, and his fourth quarter performance was just the latest example. In what can only be described as a Defensive Player of the Year start to the season, Horford has picked up his offense and rebounding. Horford is the linchpin of the Celtics offense. His screen setting and play making ability have always been paramount, but his shot making and rebounding have spiked this year. Horford has had seven or more rebounds in eight of the team’s first nine games, something he did only 33 times last season. Big Al has been a monster, a monster the Celtics need to be successful.

Is It Too Soon for a “Signature” Win?

Games in November and December don’t typically matter much in the NBA. Teams are still trying to figure out rotations, and, in most cases, aren’t close to the team they will be at the end of the season. Why was this Celtics win so important? Two reasons: 1) This win legitimizes the team’s current seven-game win streak; and 2) It gave the Celtics an identity.

Regardless of the influx of top-tier talent, this team is going to be gritty, physical, and defense minded. They proved that against OKC last night. They will fight and claw their way back into games, and play suffocating defense. This OKC team will be near the top of the league come playoff time. After beating up on the Knicks, Kings, and Heat, a win against a high caliber team with multiple All-Stars, makes this early season win streak legit. There is work to be done, but just listen to what Marcus Morris, who made his team debut against the Thunder, had to say:

Marcus Morris on the Cs comeback: "I think that was a great statement around the league for us."

— Jay King (@ByJayKing) November 4, 2017

Take notice NBA, the Celtics are for real.

Boston Celtics Ups and Downs – Week 2

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In modern America everyone is always busy, running around from business meetings to soccer practices and ballet recitals. With a whirlwind of activities, sometimes against your will, people can’t watch every minute of Boston Celtics basketball. That’s why I’m here. Every Monday I will run through three ups and three downs of Boston basketball from the previous week. Lets start with the Ups!

The Ups

Al Horford and Kyrie Irving Are Finding Their Groove

The chemistry between Horford and Kyrie wasn’t there to start. After the injury to Hayward, each player had to figure out their new role within the offense. The feeling out process took a few days, but the tandem is starting to gel. Boston has made an effort to run the offense more through Horford and it has paid off. Horford is an excellent passing big, and Kyrie’s penetration opens up passing lanes. The two-man game has been seamless over Boston’s four-game winning streak. While Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have got a lot of the headlines, and rightfully so, Horford and Kyrie are reminding people why they are multi-time All-Stars.

Aron Baynes is a Hit in Boston

Adding Baynes slid under the radar after what was a chaotic offseason for Boston. The Aussie big man had never been a star, but his rugged style of play was something the team had not had since the days of Kendrick Perkins. Baynes has been an anchor on the defensive end. While not the most athletic center, he has used the rule of verticality better than anyone since Roy Hibbert. He has also crashed the glass with a certain brutality. Over the four-game winning streak, Baynes has averaged six rebounds in just 20 minutes per game. Baynes has helped on offense as a knock-down, pick-and-pop player. He has been a useful outlet for Kyrie in the pick-and-roll game when Horford is on the bench.

The Boston Celtics, a Defensive Dynamo?

Hayward and Kyrie improved the offense, but after the loss of Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder, many experts were concerned about Boston’s defense. After stifling the Miami Heat on Saturday night, Boston now has the second-best defense in the league. They are in the top-five in defensive rating (2nd), defensive rebound percentage (3rd), and steals (5th). The length of players like Brown and Tatum has ramped up Boston’s perimeter defense. Boston is holding opposing teams to just 28.3 percent from beyond the arc, a major factor for their improvement. On top of the length, Horford has put himself in the early season Defensive Player of the Year conversation, after guarding the likes of Giannis, Kristaps Porzingis and Ben Simmons.

The Downs

After a perfect 3-0 week there aren’t too many things to complain about, but there were a few things that need to be cleaned up.

Too Many Turnovers

The Celtics are sixth in the league in turnovers per game with 14.7. Most of these are due to so many young players in key spots, and it needs to be improved. The defense can’t stay at this level if Boston continues to give their opponents free possessions. As players start to gel, the turnovers should decrease, but it’s something to monitor.

Why Can’t Boston Shoot Free Throws?

Again, I’m grasping at straws a bit here, but it is curious. Boston finished third in the league last season in free throw shooting percentage. Through six games they are ranked 21st. Again, you could chalk this up to youth and players still trying to find their form, but the Celtics are throwing away points at the charity stripe. The average 6.3 free throws they are missing could be the difference between a win and a loss.

Where or Where has Jaylen Brown Gone?

You can stack this up in the “Small Sample Size, Large Overreaction” category if you so choose. After leading the team with 23 points against the Knicks, Brown was held to single-digit scoring in his last two games. More concerning is the fact that in those games he shot just 3-17 from the field. Brown will undoubtably struggle at times throughout the season. More often than not Kyrie, Horford and Tatum will pick up the slack, but Boston is going to rely on him to add a scoring punch on the wing. The shooting will need to improve and so will the consistency.

WHAT’S NEXT FOR THE CELTICS?

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In a night filled with anticipation and excitement, a 102-99 loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers seemed insignificant to the Boston Celtics. The image of Gordon Hayward laying on the ground and pointing at his left ankle in shock will stick in the minds of fans across the NBA. According to many media outlets, Hayward suffered a fractured left ankle and has been flown back to Boston to undergo surgery. A timetable for his return has not been specified. It seems trivial to talk about what the team does going forward in the face of such a devastating injury, but the season moves on. The Celtics have to regroup and move forward without Hayward.

WHO STEPS UP FOR THE CELTICS?

The Celtics were understandably shocked after the Hayward injury. Players were forcing things in an attempt to pick the team up for the remainder of the first half. As the game move on and emotions settled, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, and Jayson Tatum stepped up. With Hayward out for the foreseeable future, the youngsters are going to have to carry this team. Even before the Hayward injury, Brown was attacking the basket without inhibition. He was a key piece in bringing the Celtics back from an 18-point deficit in the third quarter. After looking completely hapless in the first half, Smart turned up the intensity and scored all of his 12 points in the third quarter.

The success of the Celtics in Hayward’s absence will fall on these three players. Tatum will not have a chance to grow and mature in a smaller role. He is going to get more minutes and be expected to contribute. Tatum finished the game with 14 points and 10 rebounds, and showed more poise as the game went on. While the Hayward injury is devastating, it will give Brown, Tatum, and Smart even more minutes to develop.

IT REALLY IS KYRIE’S TEAM NOW

There have always been questions about Kyrie’s leadership. The coming months will, hopefully, answer those questions. The Celtics are his team now, and he will have to lead them. After a sluggish start in an emotionally charged game, Kyrie showed what he is capable of in the fourth quarter. He knocked down three shots from beyond the arch to keep the C’s close. Kyrie finished with 22 points and 10 assists, and yet he will need to do more. There will be a balancing act that Kyrie has to conquer. Yes, this team will need exceptional numbers from him, but most importantly, he can’t force things. Kyrie needs to get people involved and in addition be the assassin that we know him to be.

WHAT WILL THE CELTICS LOOK LIKE NEXT MONTH

Because the details of Hayward’s injury are still up in the air, the Celtics must reformulate their plan going forward. Three-point shooting on the wing will need to be better. Brown and Tatum combined to go 3-11 from behind the three-point line. Marcus Morris will certainly help when he returns, but the kids will have to step up. Stevens should stick with the youth movement in Hayward’s absence. Kyrie, Brown, Morris, Tatum, and Al Horford will give the Celtics the best chance to win. Smart, Terry Rozier, and Aron Baynes will captain the second unit. Everyone will need to step up in the coming months. Kyrie, Brown, and Horford will carry the load, but each player will need to contribute.

Our thoughts and prays are with Hayward for a speedy recovery. I will leave you with a bit of optimism:

Mike Gorman says early word from sources is Gordon Hayward's fracture was 'clean' #celtics pic.twitter.com/3fz3w0Kj4O

— NBC Sports Boston (@NBCSBoston) October 18, 2017

FIVE BOLD PREDICTIONS FOR THE 2017-2018 BOSTON CELTICS

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The Boston Celtics are officially ready for the 2017-2018 regular season. Training camp and four preseason games are in the books. Roles are being defined and the chemistry is on the rise. In honor of Zach Lowe’s annual NBA predictions column, here are five bold predictions for the upcoming Celtics season!

ARON BAYNES WILL BE A MORE IMPORTANT ADDITION THAN MARCUS MORRIS

Baynes has been a revelation in the preseason. Before suffering a hyperextended left knee against the 76ers, he had been a pleasant surprise for the C’s. His stats, eight points and a little over four rebounds in 14 minutes/game, won’t jump off the page, but his impact on the floor is undeniable. He has crashed the offensive class, set thunderous screens, and been dynamic in the pick-and-pop midrange game. More than anything, though, he has brought a toughness and physicality that the Celtics haven’t had since the Garnett-Perkins era. Baynes can battle with the more bruising centers, allowing Al Horford to slide over to the power forward spot. He can become the defensive anchor that Boston has needed for years. Morris will definitely put up bigger numbers, but Baynes’ toughness and work ethic will land him a spot in the hearts of all Boston fans.

THE CELTICS WILL ONLY HAVE ONE PLAYER AVERAGE 20+ PPG

The Boston offense has looked downright destructive throughout the preseason. When their “Big Three” of Kyrie Irving, Gordon Hayward, and Horford play, the ball movement, spacing, and shooting dismantles opposing defenses. Kyrie’s penetration opens up shooters around the floor, Horford’s three-point shooting creates even more driving lanes, and Hayward’s ability as a secondary ball handler fills in all the gaps. Add on the offensive talents of Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Terry Rozier, and Marcus Smart and there should never be a night where the team’s offense hits a wall. But given how many options there actually are, it’s hard to imagine anyone outside of Kyrie being able to consistently average 20+ points. There will certainly be nights when Hayward and Horford put up big numbers, but Kyrie will be the only one to eclipse 20+ points per game.

THE CELTICS WILL BE A TOP-15 REBOUNDING TEAM

Alright, I get it. I can already hear people grumbling under their breathe about the incredible heat coming off of this prediction. But is it all that crazy? The Celtics still don’t have one player that can average double-digit rebounds, that hasn’t changed. The strength of this team will be gang-rebounding. Baynes will do his part to clean up the glass when he gets minutes. Tatum and Brown are both athletic enough to grab five rebounds/game with enough court time. Rozier and Smart are two of the league’s best rebounding guards. There will be nights when the Celtics gets bodied on the boards, but don’t be surprised when they finish in the top half of the league in rebounding at the season’s end.

BRAD STEVENS FINALLY WINS COACH OF THE YEAR

The hype around Brad Stevens has been steadily growing since he came into the league. His after-timeout plays are already the stuff of legends. Stevens has had an argument for COY in years past just based on how much he got out of the limited talent he had to work with. This year will be different, though. If he can meld all of these new players and manage the egos of multiple All-Stars, something he hasn’t had to do before, then his case for COY should be unmatched. Add on a trip back to the Eastern Conference Finals, or beyond, and he becomes a lock.

THE CELTICS WILL HIT THE OVER FOR THEIR WIN TOTAL

The annual Over/Under win projections for the 2017-2018 NBA season were released a few weeks ago. The Celtics are projected to be first in the Eastern Conference with 56.5 wins, three wins above the Cleveland Cavaliers. After looking ahead of schedule with their chemistry and continuity on the court, they will exceed expectations. The Celtics will win 58 games and come in fourth for best record behind Golden State, Houston, and San Antonio.

JB & JT: A Glimpse Into the Future

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PRESEASON

So far this preseason, we have seen a variety of different rotations and player pairings. The last two games, we have seen a glimpse of what the future might look like. Jaylen Brown has started all three games so far, but Jayson Tatum has joined him in the last two. Monday night had a lot to do with rest, but on Friday nobody was resting and they started with the new Big Three. Could this be the lineup that hangs Banner 18 somewhere down the road? Preseason is a time to look at different things to see what works and who plays well together. Stevens is looking into the future with this lineup.

BROTHERLY LOVE

Jaylen Brown took Jayson Tatum under his wing during Summer League. By the end of the first practice they were already pushing each other to get better. They are both number-three overall picks from the last two drafts. Brown is ready to show Tatum the path through his rookie year, having just been through it himself. Tatum can use the guidance, often looking like a wide-eyed rookie seeking answers off the court. On the court, though, he has the confidence of a veteran. He is still working through some kinks, but he can play at a high level. So when will he join the starting ranks, as Brown looks to do this season? The chemistry of these two will be pivotal to this team going forward.

MAKING IT WORK

On the court, there is still a lot of work to be done for these two. The biggest adjustment for each will be playing with other great scorers that are better equipped to get buckets. It’s going to be a challenge to defer as much as they’ll have to do as starters. We might not see Tatum in the starting lineup this season because of this. He is the best scorer in the second unit, but he won’t need to score with the first team. His coach did give him a vote of confidence recently, saying he is “beyond his years defensively.” This could earn him minutes with the first team.

Brown will have an interesting time trying to fit in. If he focuses on defense first, everything should work itself out. He won’t be able to take the ball and drive as much as he would like. Offensively, he will probably be the last option with the first unit. Improving his cuts and movement without the ball should be priority. The other starters all see the court and pass really well. He must take advantage of this to be effective on offense.

THE FUTURE

Perhaps even more important than fitting in with the others, though, is fitting in with each other. These guys aren’t even 21 yet, and will more than likely be with the Celtics for a long time. They could both be here well after the Big Three break up, still keeping the Celtics at the top of the league as the leaders of the team somewhere down the road. It’s tough to think this far ahead, but when you see the potential of these two players, you almost have to project it out like that.

Tatum and Brown haven’t shown much on-court chemistry thus far, but have become great friends off the court in a few short months. It is only a matter of time before we see this chemistry bleed onto the court. When it does, Tatum will be pushing hard for a starting job. We will see the Celtics trying to balance between winning now and building something that can win for a long time this season. Brown is expected to start this season despite probably not being the most talented immediate option. It is going to be frustrating at times, but player development is still the Number One priority for the C’s this year. They must focus on developing these two especially so they can sustain their success into the foreseeable future.

ONE MORE PRESEASON GAME

With only one preseason game left, hopefully these two get to start together again to build more on-court chemistry. I would expect the Big Three to play, with this game the last chance to build together before the season. Terry looked great on Monday, so it would be nice to see him have another promising performance. Unfortunately Aron Baynes went down with a left knee sprain, so we will need the few backup bigs we have in Daniel Theis and Guerschon Yabusele to step up and be ready at the start of the season. It wouldn’t be surprising to see a big man get signed in the next week.

Horford-Baynes Front Court Resembles 2008 Celtics?

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Laying the Foundation

After a wild 2017 off-season for the Boston Celtics, one key player remains from the 2016 club. That player is Al Horford, and he is entering his second year with the 17 time NBA Champions.

Celtics General Manager Danny Ainge made various offseason moves after a 2016-2017 Eastern Conference Finals exit. One signing that goes under-the-radar is that of Center Aron Baynes.

The 6’10” Australian-born Baynes is entering his sixth NBA season and will be given a bigger role this year. A possible starting front court of Horford at power forward and Baynes at center seems ideal for both players. Horford would play at his natural position and focus on his offensive strengths (moving the ball, spreading the floor). Baynes would be the physical bruiser the Celtics have lacked who can primarily grab boards and defend the paint. This front court would be comparable to the 2007-2008 Celtics duo of Kevin Garnett and Kendrick Perkins. This pair was important to the team 10 years ago, and could be the blueprint for this upcoming season.

Horford to Garnett Comparison:

Before you freak out, I am not saying that Horford is on the same level as “The Big Ticket.”

Garnett was the 2004 NBA MVP with the Minnesota Timberwolves and 2008 NBA Defensive Player of the Year for Boston. Horford has never acquired either of these accolades and likely never will, but that is fine. KG was a post-up nightmare for opposing defenses who also had solid rim protection skills. During the ’07-’08 season, he averaged 18.8 points per game and 1.2 blocks per game.

Horford averaged 14.0 points and 1.3 blocks for the Celtics in 2016-2017. A key advantage he holds over Garnett is elite passing ability (5.0 assists per game last season). He also has the ability to stretch the floor with a consistent three point shot (.355% last season). With the addition of Aron Baynes, Horford will likely get to move back to his natural position. This will allow him to put more focus on his offensive game.

KG was at his best when playing power forward for the Celtics. Upon the departure of Perkins after the 2010-2011 season, Garnett was forced to play center. He saw many of his averages drop, including points, rebounds and blocks per game.

Do not expect Horford to emerge as the next “Big Ticket” for the Boston Celtics in 2017-2018. Instead, while playing at his natural position alongside a true center in Baynes, expect his offensive production to increase.

Baynes to Perkins Comparison

Aron Baynes was not a name that stuck out to most people during the 2017 “Summer of Ainge.” Kendrick Perkins was not a name that stuck out to most people during the “Big 3 Era” of the Celtics. Baynes does not hold the same value as the additions of Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward. Instead, he has the chance to be a key role players for a championship contender. The Aussie has been making a case for himself to be a starter during the pre-season. He can provide a “space and pace” offense at Center for the Celtics with a surprising mid-range jumper.

“Aron Baynes really encouraging. Can move laterally, great defensively, offense has been better than we thought.” said Coach Stevens about the Aussie thus far in the pre-season.

Those are words that could never have been said about Perkins. He played his role on the 07-08 Celtics team as an interior defender and glass cleaner. Perk could not shoot effectively outside of the paint (10-31 from shots 10 feet outside paint to three point range).

Importance of Role Players

None of Perkins career stats will amaze you, but his presence in the lineup was valuable. Boston was missing Perk during the 2010-2011 NBA Finals Game 7 against the Los Angeles Lakers. Perkins was lost to a torn ACL in Game 6 and veteran Rasheed Wallace had to start in his place (Wallace got exposed, Lakers won the championship, Celtics fans were left disappointed).

Players like Aron Baynes or Kendrick Perkins are important to championship-caliber teams. They assume the primary duties of rebounding and rim protector, allowing others to provide the offense. Baynes will need to take the leap in terms of improving his rebounds and blocks per game (4.1 and .4 respectively through 14.1 minutes per game during his career). If he does, fans will begin to love the addition of #46 for the Celtics in 2017-2018.

Horford-Baynes, Garnett-Perkins Final Thoughts

Boston’s front court for the 2017-2018 campaign looks very comparable to that of the 2007-2008 championship team. Horford and Baynes will be playing alongside All-Star talents in Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward. This will allow them to be key contributors by playing to their strengths. Garnett will go down as one of the Celtics biggest acquisitions in franchise history and it paid immediate dividends. The team captured Banner 17 during his first season with the team.

Perkins was a valuable role player for the Celtics when they last were competing for championships. This was because he allowed Garnett to play his natural position. Baynes could have the same effect in the starting lineup this season. Starting the other new-comer Marcus Morris would force Horford to play Center. The Celtics would have to take that into consideration if they decide not to start the Aussie.

Boston has a similar front court situation to the 2008 Championship roster. Playing alongside the additions of various new talents provides the ability to compete for Banner 18.