Only a second half rally in the final game against the Astros prevented the Red Sox being swept in the last series. With a return trip to Houston at the end of the week, the Red Sox will be hoping to pick up momentum with a series against the struggling Blue Jays
5/20 David Price vs. Edwin Jackson (R) 1:07 pm NESN
5/21 Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Marcus Stroman (R) 7:07 pm NESN
5/22 Rick Porcello vs. Aaron Sanchez (R) 7:07 pm NESN
5/23 Hector Velazquez vs. Ryan Feierabend (L) 7:07 pm NESN
NOTABLE NUMBERS
PITCHERS
David Price’s return from the injured list is timed perfectly for the Red Sox. His return in the first game of this series gives him a tune up outing before he will be required to pitch in Houston over the weekend. In terms of ERA, Price has been the Red Sox best pitcher this season. In six starts, Price has a 1-2 record, a 3.75 ERA and 42 strikeouts in 36 innings. Additionally, both his FIP and xFIP this season are below his ERA, suggesting he is every bit worth his current numbers.
It has been an interesting season for Marcus Stroman. The Blue Jays pitcher had a strong start to the season. In his first six starts Stroman had a 1.43 ERA with 36 strikeouts in 37 2/3 innings. However, in May he has struggled, with 13 earned runs allowed in just 20 1/3 innings for a 5.75 ERA with 15 strikeouts.
Aaron Sanchez has had a similar start to the season, with a 2.32 ERA in the first month of the season, and a 6.30 ERA in May. Sanchez left his last start against the Chicago White Sox with a blister on his right middle finger. If he does pitch in this game he could be limited in what he can throw and how he can control the ball.
HITTERS
The Red Sox face three right-handed pitchers again in this series. Mitch Moreland has 12 home runs this season with right-handed pitchers on the mound. Mookie Betts (7) is the only other Red Sox hitter with more than five home runs off right-handed pitchers this season. They account for 19 of the 41 home runs the Red Sox have hit with righties on the mound.
2019 has been a rough season for the Blue Jays at the plate. Over the course of the season they rank in the bottom quarter of the league for most statistics. That includes 26th in OBP and home runs, 27th in runs and batting average, and 28th in slugging percentage.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
The Rotation: This series has a lot of interest on the mound for the Red Sox. Firstly, there is the return of Price from injury, who will be looking to get solid innings in in preparation for the trip to Houston. Then the Red Sox hand the ball to their three biggest pitching question marks right now. Rodriguez and Porcello have got their ERAs below five for the first time this season. Thursday’s game sees Velazquez take the ball, after being tagged for five earned by the Astros last time out. The Red Sox will be hoping this group can have a strong outing against a poor Toronto Blue Jays team.
Hitting: It was a slow start to the season for the Red Sox. They ranked 18th in the majors in runs scored, and averaged 4.62 runs per game. In May they rank third with 100 runs at an average of 6.5 runs per game. With the rotation struggling for consistency, the Red Sox need their offense to keep firing.
EXPECTATIONS
Losing at home to the Astros was not ideal by any means. However, the Red Sox were competitive in two of the games, and against the favorites in the AL to make the World Series that is acceptable, if not great. Now they head to the Blue Jays before embarking on a tough stretch of their schedule.
This series is important, not only to win, but to win well. With the Astros, Indians, Yankees and Rays all coming up, the Red Sox need to get some momentum going. The Blue Jays have struggled with the bat this season. Hopefully that means the Red Sox pitchers be able to get some nice outings under their belts. Same goes for the hitters. The Blue Jays have two pitchers on the mound who have struggled in May. Two pitchers will be making just their second starts of the season. This series could be a perfect opportunity for the Red Sox to build some confidence heading into a tough road ahead.
I had the pleasure of chatting with former Red Sox second baseman Jeff Frye. Frye played in the Major Leagues for eight seasons, three of which came in Boston. He was a career .290 hitter, .295 with the Red Sox. Nowadays, Frye works as a sports agent at Frye McCann Sports and does some pre and postgame work for the Texas Rangers.
BSE: You began your career as a 30th round draft pick; what was it like clawing your way up to the Majors?
Jeff Frye: I never even thought I really had a chance of making it to the Majors to be honest. Every Spring Training I would drive down from Oklahoma with my buddies and wonder if this was the year I was getting released. Obviously, everybody’s goal is to play in the Major Leagues, but when you’re a 30th round draft pick and you don’t even start really your first season, it’s not looking too promising.
BSE: I actually saw a video of you online talking about how you changed your stance and upped your offensive production. That was pretty neat to see.
Jeff Frye: It was kind of a fluke deal. I’d done really well in A-Ball, won the batting title in low A-Ball and hit like .270 in high A-Ball. Went to AA and the defense was so much better, and the pitching was so much better at AA and I was struggling for probably two months. Just goofing around one evening after a game in the hotel, and I was imitating a lot of the Rangers star players at the time, Ruben Sierra and Juan Gonzalez, they had big leg kicks. I was imitating those guys and the guy I was playing with, who was actually my roommate, Rick Wrona, he says why don’t you hit like that in a game? The next day I started hitting that way and man, it gave me a huge boost in confidence. I started hitting, I could drive the ball and had more leverage. I just kept doing that the rest of my career.
1992: Jeff Frye of the Texas Rangers with his high leg kick. (Photo by Robert Beck/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
BSE: There’s been a lot of talk lately about the pay for Minor Leaguers, do you think they need to be doing something about that?
Jeff Frye: Yeah, I mean they should’ve done something about it a long time ago. My first year was 1988, and I started out at $700 a month. The Major League minimum was right around $100,000, or 109,000, something like that. Now the minimum’s over $500,000 and starting pay for a first year Minor Leaguer is $1,100 [a month]. It hasn’t progressed.
BSE: You made it to the Major Leagues in 1992 and played a decent amount. Your first Major League home run was actually leading off a game.
Jeff Frye: It’s actually funny, way back in 1992 there weren’t too many games on tv. I think it was a Saturday game, one of the few games that was actually televised. I actually led off the game off Arthur Rhodes with a home run. Our game actually wasn’t the one they were covering, but they clicked over and showed the start of our game. I actually became friends with Arthur Rhodes after that.
BSE: You missed all of ’93 right?
Jeff Frye: Yep, offseason basketball injury. I was playing basketball and tore my ACL, and I kind of lied about what happened to the Rangers. I didn’t have a guaranteed contract so I told them I was jogging.
BSE: In 1994 you came back and batted .327, you had a good season in ’95 and played in 90 games. How come you were in AAA in ’96 for Texas?
Jeff Frye: Well, the new manager they brought over, Johnny Oates from Baltimore, wasn’t a big fan of mine for some reason. He brought Mark McLemore over from Baltimore with him, who also played second base. He was trying to get his guy in there, the guy he felt comfortable with, and I felt like I had earned the spot with what I’d done the year before. Toward the end of the [’95] season I was so frustrated I went on a radio show and the guys were asking me what was going on. I told them how I felt and the Rangers got word of it; Johnny Oates got word of it, and I was pretty much banished after that.
BSE: You were released in June of 1996 and the Red Sox picked you up the very same day, so they must have seen something in you.
Jeff Frye: It was an arranged deal. Billy Martin Jr. is a longtime friend of mine, Billy Martin’s son, he was representing Kevin Kennedy. He called Kennedy up, the Red Sox were struggling, I think they had Wil Cordero and Jeff Manto playing second. Kennedy was looking for a second baseman and he was familiar with me. Billy Martin Jr. said, “well hey, the guy you need is in AAA.” So, they inquired about me, and the Rangers had the choice of either calling me up to the big leagues or letting me go, so they ended up letting me go.
BSE: Your Sox debut was the same day John Valentin hit for the cycle.
Jeff Frye: Funny thing is, Val and I played together in the Jayhawk League, a collegiate league back in the day. He came down to Fort Smith, Arkansas to play for our team. I grew up in Oklahoma so I was playing for that team and we became friends and then we were teammates in Boston….He taught me a lot, I was really raw. I hadn’t had much coaching to that point, I mean a routine grounder to second base was a bang-bang play at first, I didn’t know to charge the ball. Working with Val, he taught me a lot.
Jeff Frye from around the time he met John Valentin.
BSE: You mentioned how the Red Sox were struggling when they got you; they were 22-34. Went 63-43 afterwards and if I remember correctly had the best record in baseball after the All-Star Break.
Jeff Frye: Yeah, we had a great combination of me and Darren Bragg at the top of the lineup. I told Kevin Kennedy, I want to hit and run every single time there’s a runner on first base. I asked him if he’d allow me to put on my own hit and run with Darren Bragg, which doesn’t happen very often, you know? So, I developed a sign with Darren Bragg…because he was always hitting in front of me. I bet I had 30 base hits that year on hit and run, with Braggy running and me just hitting the ball in the hole.
BSE: I had Kevin Kennedy comment to me once about the rejuvenated team in the second half and he singled out you, Bragg and Reggie Jefferson for key contributors to that run.
Jeff Frye: Reggie was a hitting machine, we called him “the Hit Cat.” He was the one guy that I’ve ever seen…that actually worked on hitting the ball in batting practice to where it’d be a hit in the game. I’d never heard of that before, I was just trying to hit the ball hard. He was a great hitter.
BSE: What were some of the big changes coming from Texas to Boston?
Jeff Frye: Obviously the temperature was a big change. I think probably the biggest change was the pressure that you played under, and the excitement level. I never really had that in Texas, when I was there, we were never really in a pennant race. Coming to Boston we had the rivalry with the Yankees.
BSE: Speaking of the Yankees, I think you were the one on base in front of Trot Nixon when he homered off Clemens in that big Pedro vs Clemens game, right?
Jeff Frye: Oh yeah, there’s a great story to that if you want to hear it.
BSE: Oh, absolutely!
Jeff Frye: The at-bat that I got on base I got an infield hit, but earlier in that at-bat there was a pitch in on me that hit the knob of the bat and I acted like it hit my hand. I was jumping around and waving my hand, and Jimy Williams came out and argued with the umpire. Jimy called me over, and my nickname was Frito, and he goes, “Frito, did he get you?”
“No Jimy.”
“Alright, good try!”
I ended up hitting a one-hopper off Clemens’ glove that he probably should have fielded, and they gave me an infield hit. Trot hits the homer, so we go to the bottom of the ninth, I think we had a two-run lead and they scored a run. Then they had the tying run on third, groundball to me, and I’m getting ready to throw to first base, game over, and I look and Mike Stanley stepped on the base and slipped and was almost falling down. So, I double-clutched, and threw, and barely got, I think Paul O’Neill, by half a step. Joe Morgan was even commentating, I think it was an ESPN game or something, he commented about it. So the next day I talked to him about it and he said, “Oh, I didn’t realize that.” If I had thrown it, initially, it would have gone right by him.
Yankee Stadium– May 28 2000– Boston Red Sox second baseman Jeff Frye greets Trot Nixon at home after the right fielder slammed a two run homer in the ninth off NY Yankee pitcher Roger Clemens to win the game. Staff photo by Jim Mahoney
BSE: Any particular games from your playing career stand out?
Jeff Frye: The game where Darren Lewis and I hit back-to-back home runs in the ninth off Mike Trombley of the Twins in Fenway. He hit a home run to tie the game, then I hit a home run to walk-off the game. Two guys who aren’t known for hitting home runs. I remember the headline in the paper the next day; “Banjo Hitters Come Through for the Red Sox.”
In 2001 I hit for the cycle for the Blue Jays against the Rangers.
BSE: Second one in Toronto history.
Jeff Frye: Yeah, that was a little bit controversial because I could have had a double in my last at-bat but stopped at first. We were winning by nine runs in the eighth inning and I went up to Cito Gaston, who was our hitting coach, and said “what do I do here if I hit one into the corner, or the gap?” He said, “stop at first and tell them I told you to.” As I hit the ball I was so nervous. It was a really frustrating year for me, but to have the opportunity to hit for the cycle. I was always the guy who was unselfish, would move runners over and things like that. I finally had the chance in my career to do something a little bit selfish, instead of getting a double I stopped at first, man I got a lot of flak for it. The manager of the Rangers commented on it, and Tim Kurkjian.
BSE: I mean, it wasn’t a close game, what did they care?
Jeff Frye: Yeah, that’s kind of how I felt. Plus, I’d already asked Cito! Cito had already won four pennants as manager of the Blue Jays and two World Series, so.
BSE: I think the first base coach was yelling at you to stop too, right?
Jeff Frye: Yeah, Garth Iorg. I was screaming as I rounded first, “what do I do? What do I do?” And he goes, “stay here! Stay here!” So, I took a big turn and went back to first. Kelly Gruber walked onto the field, man it was a cool feeling.
Kelly Gruber, left, hugs Blue Jays’ Jeff Frye after he cycled with a single against the Texas Rangers in Toronto August 17, 2001. Gruber was the first Blue Jay to cycle twelve years ago. (Photo by Vince Talotta/Toronto Star via Getty Images)
BSE: Was that your proudest accomplishment?
Jeff Frye: Yeah. I mean, I do remember a couple games in Boston when I first went there. I made an error on a routine groundball when Clemens was pitching. Man, the crowd was all over me and were yelling to go back to Texas. Not too long after that I had a game where I was 4-4 and I’d lined out my fifth at-bat and I got a standing ovation. One time Jimy Williams pinch-hit me for Trot Nixon. I was like, “man Jimy, are you sure?” They announced me in Boston, “now batting for Trot Nixon, Jeff Frye,” and the whole stadium booed. So, I’m walking to home plate, and I’m not happy, so I take my helmet off and tip it to the crowd as I’m walking to home plate. I got a base hit and got to first base and I tipped my hat to the crowd. I ended up scoring a run, and then I came up later in the game and hit a two-RBI double off the wall and they loved me.
BSE: Nowadays you are an agent for some of the ballplayers?
Jeff Frye: Yeah, I’ve been an agent for 17 years.
BSE: Wow, that’s a long time. You think your playing days helped in this position?
Jeff Frye: Yeah, definitely. A lot of stuff I do is amateur recruiting, so if I go in and talk to the family about their son, I can basically tell them everything their son is going to experience, I’ve already experienced. Not many other agents can make that claim.
BSE: With the way free agency has gone the past couple years, what are your thoughts on that? Do you think it needs any fixing?
Jeff Frye: Absolutely, something’s going on. Now that Bryce [Harper] and Manny [Machado] have signed it’s like everything is back to normal, but we still have so many great players who haven’t signed. We have difference makers who don’t have jobs and spring training is already going on. This has been a couple years running now. I don’t want to say there’s collusion, but I saw a story about Mark Reynolds, he didn’t have any offers from anybody, then one day within like an hour he had a call from four different teams and the same offer from every team.
BSE: That’s pretty fishy.
Jeff Frye: Yeah, something’s going on. I’m kind of fearful of what we’re facing in a couple years with the player’s and the commissioner’s office.
BSE: Any thoughts on some of the new rules in the game? The change of pace?
Jeff Frye: Yeah, I’m not a fan of that at all. I don’t think the pace of play is why people aren’t watching baseball. I had a hard time watching the playoffs last year, it’s boring with everyone striking out, walking or swinging for the fences. They aren’t cutting down on their swings with two strikes. The Red Sox weren’t that way last year and look what happened; I think Cora did a great job. I don’t think we can look at all these stats, launch angle and exit velocity and things, and measure how valuable a player is. I would have never had a chance, my exit velocity and launch angle wouldn’t even register. I was told to hit the ball on the ground. Nowadays you’re not supposed to hit the ball on the ground….You know last year was the first year in the history of baseball where there were more strike outs than hits? And the shift; they’re talking about eliminating the shift or limiting shifts. Well, if you see four guys on the right side of the infield, hit the ball the other way! Why cater to the guys who can’t make adjustments? He can’t hit the ball the other way so let’s change the rules so it benefits him. Well, that’s not how it’s supposed to work.
BSE: So, you mentioned you’re not a fan of the stats, so called stats, they use nowadays.
Jeff Frye: No, not at all; that’s an understatement. I go round and round with Brian Kenny. I haven’t delved too deep into what stats are put into WAR, but I’m pretty sure if I’m up with a runner on second and move the runner over to third, I don’t get much credit for that. If the next guy hits a groundball to second and gets an RBI, that’s because I helped him get that RBI. I should be credited in some fashion, it’s all about winning.
BSE: Yeah, it was designed initially to just be a tool to help determine how good someone was, not be an and-all-be-all. The problem is, some guys now treat it like gospel, if one guy has a higher WAR than another it automatically means he’s a better player. That’s the big problem with it.
Jeff Frye: Yeah, I remember Tim Naehring said to me one time, way back in the day, the three most important stats are hits, runs and RBI, and the best players in the game average more than two per game. So, any combination of hits, runs or RBI over the course of the season, and if you look at the numbers at the end of the year, the guys who are the best players at the end of the year have the highest percentage.
BSE: I remember a few years ago I was watching MLB Network, and two of the guys were having a big conversation about WAR while John Smoltz just stood there quietly. Right before commercial Smoltz slides in, “Jason Heyward has a higher WAR than Giancarlo Stanton, that’s all you need to know about WAR.” It was perfect, just casually makes a short statement that exemplified a part of the problem.
Jeff Frye: I watch that all the time too, he’s my favorite; he and Billy Ripken, neither one buys into that. Look at the contract the WAR stat got Jason Heyward, and how has that paid off? Immediately it was bad.
BSE: I don’t know if it was the year before he was a free agent, but Heyward hit maybe .276 with 13 homers and was a top 10 player in all of baseball according to WAR. (He hit .293 with 13 HR in 2015).
Jeff Frye: Yeah, because his defensive stats were so great.
BSE: Yeah, which is important, but how does it make you better than someone hitting .310 with 35 homers or something?
Jeff Frye: Yeah, well obviously it doesn’t because look at what’s happened since he signed.
BSE: One last thing, you’re doing some pre and postgame work for the Rangers, correct?
Jeff Frye: Yeah, I started last year on Fox Sports Southwest and I did like 17 games I think last year. I’m scheduled to do, I don’t know how many this year, but that’s been a lot of fun.
BSE: Well, that’s all the questions I have for you, anything you’d like to add?
Jeff Frye: Still a Red Sox fan, happy they won they won the World Series. I’ve reached out to the Red Sox because I’d…like to do their fantasy camp, I thought that’d be cool to get to see some of my old buddies, so maybe down the road I’ll get to do that.
BSE: Well, I appreciate you taking the time to talk with me today.
Jeff Frye: Yeah, no problem man.
Featured picture (Photo by Sporting News via Getty Images)
It seems like only yesterday millions of Red Sox fans cheered as Chris Sale brought Manny Macedo down to one knee with a nasty slider down and in to win the World Series. Now it is officially time to close the book on the 2018 Red Sox as spring training is underway. In two days the Sox will play their first game of spring training against the New York Yankees. Before the first pitch of 2019 is thrown here are some bold predictions for the defending world series champions.
Xander Bogarts Will Be A 30 HR 100 RBI Player
Xander Bogarts is coming off the best season of his career in 2018. Bogarts batted .288 with and ops of .833 with a career high in homeruns 23, and RBI 103. It seems like Bogarts has turned a corner in his career entering the final year of his deal. With the young shortstop in line to make big money at the end of the year everything is set up for Bogarts to have a huge year. With Manny Macedo setting the market with his huge 10 year, 300 million dollar contract with the Padres. Bogarts will have some extra motivation to get those power numbers. This will be the season he finally reaches his true potential.
Rodriguez Will Emerge As The Number Three Starter
Since he arrived in Boston the story with Eduardo Rodriguez has always been about his potential. So far he has not lived up to the hype and has struggled with health and control for most of his career. Reports out of spring training have been centered around Rodriguez bulking up and his new “knockout” pitch. Putting batters away has always been a problem for the lefty as his fastball at around 93mph doesn’t set up his inconsistent breaking balls. Every year a starter emerges that and has a great year that no one expects. Whether it was Rick Porcello winning the cy young, or Drew Pomeranz actually knowing how to pitch. This year its Rodriguez turn to shine.
Add Adam Ottavino to the list of potential closers who are now elsewhere. Even worse, Ottavino is leaving Colorado and heading to the Bronx. The list is now significantly smaller than the one we began the offseason with. Along with Ottavino; Andrew Miller, Joakim Soria, Cody Allen, Jeurys Familia and Kelvin Herrera are all signed. Kimbrel is likely out of the Sox’ current plans, and the in-house closer candidates are limited. However, there is still a name on the free agent market that does entice me. The move is definitely one I could see the Red Sox making now.
A familiar face in the American League East, Brad Brach made his way into a playoff race last season with the Atlanta Braves. He had struggled in 2018 with Baltimore up to the point of the trade. However, he kicked it into another gear in ATL. His BB/9 came down an entire walk after his trade, as he seemed to find the control that made him dominant in years past.
Between 2013 and 2017, Brach averaged an ERA under three, with four of those five years coming in the gruelling American League East. He’s coming off a solid renaissance in Atlanta, but still won’t command a large salary at all. He’s a year younger than Ottavino, but he also doesn’t have one season as dominant as Ottavino’s 2018. However, the large body of work would say that Brach could be just as effective.
Ottavino has a career 3.68 ERA and a nice, round WHIP of 1.30 over 366 games. Brad Brach meanwhile has a 3.08 ERA and a WHIP of 1.27 over 424 games. Ottavino reportedly had tons of suitors, so why isn’t the market for Brach the same? Brach has better numbers, over a longer period of time as well. He also has postseason experience (1.80 ERA in 5 games) and has 30 saves over the last two seasons.
For whatever reason, he hasn’t had a tenth of the market that Ottavino had. The Red Sox should capitalize on that. A one or a two year deal with a mutual option would benefit both sides short-term. The money wouldn’t be much more than the 5.1 million he earned in 2018.
He’s a closer that costs around 10 million dollars, and has no long-term economic impacts on the payroll. That should be one that the Red Sox should have jumped all over months ago.
His journey through Boston didn’t need to be a long one. Mike Napoli had left his mark on the city. The slugger announced his retirement this past weekend, and for many fans of the 2013 championship team, it called for a chance to reminisce. He only spent a little over two seasons with the team, but he was a very impactful, lovable character. He’ll mainly be remembered for his bushy beard and clutch heroics throughout the 2013 season. But most importantly, for helping bring a championship to a city that truly needed it, after their darkest time.
How The Era Of Napoli Came To Be
I recall being on vacation down in Florida in December of 2012. I heard about a multitude of signings the team was in the process of making. They needed some veteran presence alongside David Ortiz and Dustin Pedroia, so they made three moves. All three of those moves occurred within three days, and all helped shaped the 2013 season.
Shane Victorino and Koji Uehara both signed. They were probably the two most important players throughout the 2013 ALCS. The third signing of the week was Mike Napoli. After some issues passing his physical, he eventually made his way to the Red Sox on a one year deal. All three of these guys had been solid, but the team faced backlash, as all three were seen as ‘past their prime’.
I lauded the move at the time, how can you not want these likable, locker room presence-type guys? Of course, it paid off. Napoli transitioned to first base smoothly for Boston, and ended up having some huge hits down the stretch, and into October.
Why He Was So Important
In April of 2013, the country was sent into a state of shock. Terrorists had carried out an attack this close to home, right at the Boston Marathon. For as many people this sent into a frenzy and a state of panic, it ended up bringing together a city. Nobody will ever forget Big Papi’s speech before the first home game following the attacks:
It became a theme of the season. The Boston Strong jersey hung in the dugout during every game. The players were often discussing with the media and with each other how much they wanted this for the city and for the fans. It all just felt like it was meant to be, and Mike Napoli was central to all of this.
When I think of this team, I remember how great the entire ‘beard’ thing was. I remember Jonny Gomes showing up with a huge beard at Spring Training, and Napoli just loved it. Eventually the whole team had beards. The team had named them and marketed it. That ended up being another huge theme of the season.
The Fun
Napoli and his bearded brothers brought a sense of passion everyday, to get it done for this city. However, they always did it while having fun. Even when the team struggled, or fell behind against Detroit in the playoffs, this crew was there to pick each other up. Just like they picked this city up, when the people needed it most.
The stats aren’t flashy over the two and half seasons in Boston, and the way it ended in 2015 is unfortunate. The Sox were going nowhere, and unfortunately Napoli had begun to really fall off. So they shipped him back to Texas.
He’ll never be forgotten for helping bring this city a title when they needed it. Nobody will ever forget seeing his big beard laughing it up at first base. Nobody had more fun than Nap, and nobody partied harder when the Sox won. Most of all, nobody will ever forget this. Possibly the greatest photo in the history of Boston Sports, shirtless Napoli patrolling Boston days after winning the World Series:
The winter is in full swing in the baseball world. We’ve seen blockbusters already happening. From James Paxton, to Jean Segura to Robinson Cano, big names have already been on the move everywhere. The Red Sox more than likely won’t make an acquisition of that proportion, but let’s dream for a bit shall we? Paul Goldschmidt is going to be huge splash, wherever he lands. He’s an MVP caliber player, who’s on a benchwarmers salary next season. Seeing as it would only be a one year rental for Goldschmidt, the Sox may shy away from wanting to move multiple young pieces. However, as far as need and fit are concerned, this would be a great move for Boston to make while the championship window is still open.
With Arizona likely on its way towards a rebuild, many of their big names may be finding other homes. Patrick Corbin will leave via free agency, as the Diamondbacks just don’t have the payroll to keep him. Another aspect hurting the payroll, is Zack Grienke’s contract. They will also look to move him this winter. Which brings us to Goldschmidt. Possibly the most intriguing trade chip in all of baseball. Even Giancarlo Stanton on the market last season, reigning MVP, didn’t offer the pure hitting approach which Goldschmidt does. A career .300 hitter, with an OPS of .930, Goldschmidt is a guy who brings instant pop the lineup, and leadership the locker room.
So if Goldschmidt is on his way out of the desert, could the Red Sox make a viable run at his services for the next year? It’s definitely possible. Even with first base platooned by Steve Pearce and Mitch Moreland, this team clearly has a need for first baseman. Both Pearce and Moreland are solid players, who both played a big role in this year’s World Series. It’s hard not to get caught up in the lore of those two, and want to keep them in the lineup. The wise decision, would be to try and upgrade one position where they are subpar.
A Potential Package for Goldschmidt
Obviously, Goldschmidt would require a hefty haul to acquire. The Sox farm system is fairly depleted. However, with Goldschmidt essentially only coming over for one year, the return is worth parting with for Boston. It would have to start with Boston’s top hitting prospect Michael Chavis, and go from there. He is the most valuable asset the Red Sox have outside the major league club. He is also seen as a guy who could come up and hit .300 next season in the show. It would likely take Chavis and a couple other mid-level prospects to make the deal happen. A 14 million dollar tag on the incoming Goldschmidt still makes it possible for the Sox to function under the luxury tax.
Obviously, with a player of Paul’s caliber, there are many bidders. The Phillies, Astros, and Cardinals are just a handful of the teams that are in on Goldschmidt. All these teams are in positions to compete, and have deeper farm systems than Boston. This doesn’t make the deal impossible, it just means Dombrowski would have to act quick.
Do I see this deal happening? Probably not. Is it something that I would like to have happen? Yes, because frankly it should happen. It’s a low risk move that immediately improves the team, while still leaving money for other free agents like Joe Kelly or Nathan Eovaldi. He’s a power hitting first baseman, who is still athletic as ever and has pretty good wheels as far as people his size go. This would be a huge move that let’s the whole league know the Red Sox are still at the top.
I was making the rounds on the Red Sox news circuit yesterday when I came to a sudden realization. This is going to be a boring offseason.
Granted, it’s still incredibly early on. The non-tender deadline for arbitration-eligible players (the first major offseason date) is later tonight at 8 pm ET. The Winter Meetings don’t kick off until December 9th. MLB’s hot stove has been relatively cool thus far, outside of a handful of moves ranging from “Indifferent Shrug” to “Okay, That’s Interesting”. Both New York teams have led the charge by shopping at the Great Seattle Mariners Fire Sale of 2018. The Yankees acquired lefty James Paxton on November 20. Meanwhile, the Mets traded for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz. The Red Sox, for their part, haven’t really been involved in much of the early action. There haven’t been any rumors of that changing any time soon.
That makes total sense for a 108-win champion coming off of the best season in franchise history. Boston will likely be returning most of the core group that led 2018’s title run. It has already brought back World Series MVP Steve Pearce on a team friendly 1-year deal and restructured/extended Alex Cora’s current deal through 2021. Both moves were no-brainers, and the Sox moved quickly to tie up those loose ends. The Red Sox also took a flyer on 25-year-old reliever Colten Brewer. Beyond that, the only real questions with this roster involve Craig Kimbrel, Nathan Eovaldi, and which of their homegrown core they can lock up long-term.
It’s a change of pace from last year’s eons-long pursuit of JD Martinez. It’s also a far cry from splashy offseasons like 2014 and 2015. I didn’t hear any reports of Dave Dombrowski sitting down for Thanksgiving dinner with Madison Bumgarner like Theo Epstein did with Curt Schilling in 2003. Trying to decide which sub-70 OPS+ catcher to move on isn’t a fun conversation to have on sports talk radio. The minutiae of sussing out a 6th or 7th reliever don’t really move the needle for many fans. There is some intrigue around second base and Dustin Pedroia’s status moving forward. And, while I personally think first base is an area to upgrade, the team seems happy with their Peace/Mitch Moreland platoon.
Winter can be fickle, and Dombrowski has never been shy about making blockbusters happen. Standing pat after a season where nearly everything went right can be risky, too. However, should the Sox choose to mostly shuffle some minor pieces around while keeping most of a championship roster intact, it will be hard to complain. This team doesn’t feel quite as one-hit-wonder-y as 2013, and doesn’t have as many players set to depart as 2004. The best comparison is 2007. That offseason, a strong mix of young, homegrown talent and veteran stars made it easy to roll things over to 2008.
Besides, next offseason looms large. Some key players that are up for extensions in 2019: Moreland, Martinez (player option) Chris Sale, Rick Porcello, and Xander Bogaerts. Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley become unrestricted free agents the following year. It may be best for Boston to keep its books as clean as possible, with that in mind. That is unless they plan on acquiring a player with the intent to replace one of those guys over the long term.
As is always the case, we’ll have no choice to wait and see what happens. But if push comes to shove, I’m fine if the only offseason addition the Red Sox make is another World Series trophy to their display case.
He’s two years removed from playing a full season and clearly his knee has been an issue. However, Dustin Pedroia still has a lot of skills and traits that can still be useful to this team. He’s still locked up for a fair amount of time. He’s going to make roughly 40 million dollars over the final three years of his contract. Can he still produce at a level that merits having that contract on the books? That is yet to be determined, but first and foremost, Dustin has to get healthy. The now 35-year-old second baseman is fortunate for many reasons. Mainly, with Kinsler departing, he faces almost no competition on the roster for his position. If he can get strong over the winter and be ready for the spring, he’ll have his chance to make an impact for Boston like he did back in 2016 and preceded by various season earlier.
Pedroia’s Achilles Heel
Unfortunately for Pedroia, he just can’t shake the pain in his left knee. Father Time isn’t on his side either, by any means, but the two-year-old knee injury has to be frustrating Dustin. In 2016 he hit .318 with an OPS of .825. Both of these numbers are exceptional, even all-star worthy. Then Manny Machado came along.
The collision between the two in April of 2017 appears to be what initially led to the injury for Pedroia. Machado’s late slide, that he claims as unintentional, took out the left leg of Dustin and frankly he has never been the same since. Pedroia has always been one that has struggled with the injury bug here and there. Nothing has ever compared to this, though.
Playing with the speedy, dirt-dog style that he does, his knees have already been taking a beating over the years. This has the potential to possibly sideline him for a good chunk of another season. Which would be similar to his 2018 where he played in only three games. Even worse, this has the potential to be it for Pedroia, at least with Boston.
Having paid him 16 million dollars last year for basically nothing, and 15 million in 17 for a half season isn’t good business. That equates to roughly 23 million in dead money, plus another 40 still on the Red Sox plate in the future. He’s going to have his chance in 2019 but he has to take it, or he could see himself out a similar door to Hanley Ramirez.
Can He Still Be Effective?
Like I said earlier, his last full season in 2016 was very good. Even in 2017, in limited action, he was a decent ballplayer at .293/.369/.760. IF, which is a big if, he can be ready to go for Opening Day AND stay healthy, the numbers seem like an attainable goal. It’s nothing special, and probably not worth the dollar amount he’s making, but it’s more than they got last year.
With Ian Kinsler highly unlikely to return, the door is wide open for Pedroia to take the reigns back. For him, it’ll be a transition to a different role, one as more of only a team leader and less as a contributor. When he could last year, he was always on the bench. He acted like an assistant coach at times for Alex Cora, something that likely had a huge influence on the team that won the championship.
If he can put up the aforementioned triple slash line from 2017, and continue to evolve into a mentor for the young guys like Rafael Devers and eventually Michael Chavis, he’ll be somewhat worth the money they’re paying him. As far as the team goes, they won 108 games and a World Series this year. Adding Pedroia back into the fold can only be a plus for this Red Sox team, and to me, it’s definitely an upgrade from Kinsler.
2018 was a fun ride for fans and players, now it’s time to get down to business. For the Red Sox, I think they need to find a way to keep Eovaldi in Boston. Reports on the situation are that Boston does indeed want to re-sign him. If they are unable to make that happen, they want to sign another proven Major League starter to replace him. I think that it is imperative to keep him.
Here’s Why Eovaldi Needs To Stay
With Nathan Eovaldi re-signed Boston’s starting rotation would be unreal with Sale, Price, Porcello, and Rodriguez all staying put. Suring up that rotation with Nathan would be smart. Boston has their key offensive pieces in place. Boston doesn’t have to worry about Mookie Betts or JD Martinez this year, so instead of signing another veteran pitcher, this is why Eovaldi is the answer.
Game 4 of the ALDS against the rival Yankees, Eovaldi dominated, pitching 7 plus innings with 1 run allowed. New York is also one of the teams that could be in on him. As the Red Sox continued into the ALCS, Eovaldi was great again. 6 plus innings with just 2 runs as the Sox won Game 3 using his arm again. As we all know by now the Red Sox beat the Houston Astros, and we were introduced to the rover. Alex Cora used Eovaldi as his rover in game 5 of the ALCS and in Games 1 and 2 of the World Series. In those 3 games, he came into each game and threw fire allowing 0 runs, while making it look easy. Even with short rest, Boston was going to have him start Game 4 of the World Series, but Game 3 changed that plan.
Eovaldi Turns in Heroic Performance Showing His Selflessness
Eovaldi was perfect for the Red Sox and should stay in Boston
Once again, Eovaldi was called on as Game 3 of the World Series turned into a marathon of a game. Still tied in the 12th inning, Nathan Eovaldi came out of the pen. In one of the greatest performances I’ve ever witnessed, he turned in a heroic 6 inning relief appearance. He knew that he was putting his future in jeopardy, by pitching so often. Anything could have happened and he could’ve lost a lot of money. As a free-agent-to-be, he risked his health along with future contracts, but he just wanted to help his team. Putting all of that aside, he went deep into the 18th inning, hitting triple digits on the radar gun like it was nothing.
Eovaldi pitched a gem and kept the Sox in the game as long as he could. In the bottom of the 18th, he gave up a solo shot to end the longest game in history. His teammates were all amazed at what he just did, some brought to tears as they realized how much Nathan just gave for his team. I believe it galvanized an already very close clubhouse. Eovaldi was a huge reason for Boston’s Championship.
Closing Thoughts on Nathan Eovaldi
Boston should do what they can to keep Eovaldi. He’s 28 years old, extremely dominant and the way he pitched since arriving in Boston is all I need to know about him. For what it’s worth he threw 16 scoreless innings against the Yankees in the regular season. Also, his 1.35 ERA in September combined with what he did in the postseason, I believe he’s worth the $15 million range. He himself said he’d love to stay in Boston. While many teams will be fighting for him, I believe he wants to be here enough that he and Boston will work something out.
“I still feel like that’s where I’m gonna be for the rest of my career.” Joe Kelly’s recent comments have made it clear how he feels about Boston. Are the Red Sox going to grant him his wish of being with the team the remainder of his career? With Eduardo Nunez and Steve Pearce both locking themselves in with Boston for 2019, the money is starting to go on the books. Craig Kimbrel returning is seeming more unlikely by the day. So, going forward, the champs are going to need someone to hold down the back end of the bullpen. And I’m not saying Joe Kelly is the answer, but he’s definitely an admirable candidate.
Joe Kelly has firmly planted himself in Red Sox lore. From fighting Tyler Austin and the Yankees in April to pitching tough as nails in October, to dropping the puck at a Bruins game in November. Kelly has been endearing himself to the fans all season long, myself included. How can you not love this guy and the attitude he brings?
Admittedly, Kelly did struggle in the dog days of summer. Every time he came in the game, he was allowing inherited runners to score or giving up runs left, right and center. If he struggles like that in the ninth inning of games, in Boston, the seat will get hot real quick. So is it worth paying Kelly a good chunk of change to close out games? Personally, I think it’s a safe bet. He obviously won’t command the 4-5 years at 70+ million that Kimbrel likely will. This is huge for a Red Sox team who’s trying to make other moves.
Joe Kelly Has The Boston Mentality
He’s never been short of confidence. Having this persona, allows him to be a guy with the guts to get the job done in the tough moments. Closing out games in one of the biggest sports markets isn’t easy. It requires these aforementioned guts to get the job done. The light shines brighter than in almost any other city in America. Putting money in the wrong place for the man to fill the job could be costly.
Despite the temporary summer struggles, I’ll take the grit of Joe Kelly any day of the week. If he comes back it would almost certainly be as the closer. Many other teams in the league could use an upgrade at the position and likely could also pay more than Boston can. Selling Kelly on having the closer’s role would likely be a huge factor in pleasing Joe, and keeping him with the Red Sox for the foreseeable future.
There are other options on the table via trade and via free agency. If the Red Sox choose to spend their money in other ways, I could see Matt Barnes also taking over the reins. Whatever ends up happening, if Joe Kelly does in Boston it’ll be as the closer. After October, I think that should be a comfortable feeling.
