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The Greatest Red Sox Legends by Uniform Number: 61-68

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As the numbers extend higher, the pickings continue to thin. Fewer and fewer players have worn the numbers as they climb into the sixties and beyond. The numbers have also generally been worn for shorter amounts of time, assigned to rookies just making the Majors. If the rookie succeeds, they usually change their number the following season. If they don’t make it, well, they aren’t wearing the number long. Therefore, I am going to do more than just five players at a time and close out this series of articles with just two more articles. Unfortunately, no Red Sox player has ever worn the number 69, so here are the greatest to wear the numbers 61-68.

Number 61 – Bronson Arroyo

Bronson Arroyo is one of the few players who stuck with his high number, wearing 61 for his entire career. The Red Sox grabbed Arroyo off waivers before the 2003 season, and what a find it was.

Arroyo pitched in Pawtucket for almost the entire first season and threw a perfect game down there, just the fourth in International League history. He pitched 17.1 innings for the Red Sox out of the bullpen, allowing just four earned runs. This earned him a spot on the postseason roster, where he performed well.

Arroyo earned himself a rotation spot in 2004, making 29 starts. He finished the year 10-9 with a solid 4.03 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. He made a good start in the ALDS, allowing two runs on three hits over six innings. In the ALCS, he was involved in the famous Alex Rodriguez “slap” play at first base.

In 2005, Arroyo made 32 starts and pitched over 200 innings, starting a streak of nine straight seasons with 199 innings or more thrown. He went 14-10 with a 4.51 ERA in the regular season.

The Red Sox mistakenly traded Arroyo in the offseason for Wily Mo Pena, but he left his mark on Boston.

Honorable Mentions: Brian Johnson, Felix Doubront, Clay Buchholz (2007-09)

Alex Rodriguez illegally slaps the ball out of Bronson Arroyo’s glove as he went to tag him out running to first base in game 6 of the ALCS.

Number 62 – Jon Lester

This is the second number Lester has been chosen for, as he was the winner for his typical number 31. Jon Lester wore the number 62 during his rookie season of 2006. Once he was an established Major Leaguer following the season, he changed to the lower number.

A highly touted prospect, Lester was rated as the 22nd best prospect in all of baseball entering 2006. The former second round pick was coming off an excellent season in AA Portland. He began the year in Pawtucket and posted a 2.70 ERA over 11 starts before being called up to Boston.

Lester would go 7-2 for the big club that season, although with a mediocre ERA. However, he pitched very well for the first half of his time with the Red Sox before possibly hitting a wall. Young pitchers don’t generally throw many innings, so the amount of innings and the impact of the innings being pitched may have caught up to him. Through his first eight starts he was 6-2 with a 2.38 ERA. In that eighth start he allowed just one hit over eight shutout innings against the Kansas City Royals.

Although he faded later in the year, Lester was still 7-2 and helped add another reliable starter for over a month.

Honorable Mention: Rich Hill (2015)

Number 63 – Junichi Tazawa

Tazawa was given an honorable mention at the number 36 for his work from 2013-2016. However, before that he was wearing the number 63 from 2009-2012. He is here for his work in 2012 alone.

Junichi Tazawa at one time was a pretty decent prospect for the Red Sox as a starting pitcher. He made his debut in 2009 and got the loss against the Yankees in his first game. He did not fare much better after that either, making four starts and two relief appearances total.

In 2010, he blew out his arm in April and missed the whole season. When he came back in 2011 it was as a reliever. He only made three appearances for the Red Sox that season. With the slim pickings at the number, Tazawa earns the top spot on the strength of 2012 alone.

Tazawa pitched 37 games in 2012, allowing just seven runs over 44 innings. He struck out 45 batters while posting a 1.43 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. He was arguably the best reliever on that mess of a team.

Honorable Mentions: Justin Masterson, Robby Scott

Number 64 – Will Middlebrooks

Will Middlebrooks arrived in 2012 as the Red Sox best hitting prospect. He was ranked number 51 by Baseball America at the start of the year and only improved his standing as the year wore on. After raking at Pawtucket for a month, Middlebrooks was called up and made his Major League debut on May 2nd.

Middlebrooks hit all season for the Red Sox, bashing 15 home runs over 267 at-bats. He batted .288 and posted a slugging percentage of .509 at the big league level that rookie season. This would be the only season he wore the number 64, and it was easily the best season of his career. However, he did win a World Series ring with the club the following season.

Number 65 – Steven Wright

Wright might be the unlikeliest winner of two different numbers, having gotten the nod at number 35. There was little competition at that number, and there is zero competition at this one. The only other player I noticed who contributed anything pitched 3.1 shutout innings in 1998.

Steven Wright wore the number 65 for the 2014 season. That year he threw 21 innings, mostly in relief, and had his first Major League success. Even with the knuckleball, Wright struck out 22 batters against just four walks. He posted a 2.57 ERA and 1.19 WHIP that season for the Red Sox. He has worn the number 35 ever since.

Honorable Mention: Carlos Valdez

Sep 7, 2014 Boston Red Sox relief pitcher Steven Wright (65) pitches against the Toronto Blue Jays at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

Number 66 – Bobby Poyner

As you can see, there isn’t a lot to choose from at some of these numbers. Not to take away from Poyner, he did a good job for the Red Sox this past season, but he has only thrown 22.1 innings. Only five players have ever donned the uniform 66 for the Red Sox.

A left-handed reliever, Poyner had a fantastic spring and surprisingly pitched his way onto the ballclub. He pitched effectively over 20 appearances, going 1-0 with a 3.22 ERA. His WHIP was an excellent 1.12 and he struck out 24 batters against only three walks. The low walks are an excellent total for a lefty reliever, as they generally walk a fair amount of guys.

Honorable Mention: Daniel Nava (2012 only), Drake Britton

Number 67 – Brandon Workman

Workman is one of four Red Sox to ever wear the number, and the only one to play in more than 11 games. He has had his positives for the club though, this past postseason aside.

Workman first appeared with the big club in 2013. He struck out 47 batters over 41.2 innings that season, making three starts and 17 relief appearances. He had a 6-3 record despite a 4.97 ERA. Workman did make three straight good starts to close out July. A few rough outings skewed his overall solid body of work. Workman then pitched 8.2 innings without an earned run over seven postseason appearances. His work out of the bullpen certainly helped the Red Sox as they won their third World Series in nine years.

The next season, Workman had a 3.27 ERA at the end of June before the wheels came off. He finished 1-10 with a 5.17 ERA. Workman wound up hurting his arm and it was a long road back to the Majors.

He found his way back in 2017 and had a 3.18 ERA over 33 relief appearances. This past season he wore the number 67 for a bit and the number 44, going 6-1 with a 3.27 ERA in the regular season. This gives him a 3.22 ERA over 81 innings since making it back to the big leagues.

Number 68 – Matt Barnes

Barnes wore the number 68 for his first four seasons before switching numbers for the 2018 season. Of course, 2018 is his best season to date, but he did enough prior to this season. He is the only player worth mentioning at the number.

Barnes debuted late in 2014, then struggled as a rookie in 2015. He had an up and down 2016, but showed some promise as he struck out over a batter per inning. He finished 4-3 with a 4.05 ERA.

In 2017 he took another step forward, leading into this past season. Barnes was 7-3 with a 3.88 ERA in 2017, posting a career best 1.22 WHIP. He struck out 10.7 batters per nine innings, surpassed only by this past seasons 14 strike outs per nine.

Jul 6, 2016 Matt Barnes (68) throws a pitch against the Rangers at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

Should Steven Wright Be on World Series Roster?

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Knuckleballer Steven Wright has said he believes he is healthy enough to pitch in the World Series. Wright was initially on the ALDS roster but was removed after complaining about renewed soreness in his knee. This left Wright ineligible for the ALCS roster as he was replaced for both series by Heath Hembree. Assuming Wright’s simulated game Sunday went well, what should the Red Sox do for the World Series?

The Pros

Steven Wright has been a very effective pitcher for the Red Sox, both as a starter and as a reliever. Wright was an all-star back in 2016 but has missed much of the past two seasons. Wright has a troublesome knee which keeps barking and sending him back to the disabled list. After a DL stint earlier in the season, the Sox moved Wright to the bullpen where he enjoyed great success.

In 16 games as a relief pitcher this year Steven Wright was 2-0 with a 1.52 ERA and one save. Some of that work came early in the year however, before he began starting in June. When Steven Wright returned to the Red Sox in September he allowed just one run over 13.2 innings pitched. Wright was even used in high-leverage spots, picking up a win, three holds and a save over the final month.

Bringing a knuckleballer in out of the pen following a conventional pitcher can be highly effective. After seeing a healthy dose of fastballs and curves, seeing a slow knuckleball all of a sudden can really mess with a hitters timing. Then, once Wright was removed from the game again for a new reliever, one likely throwing in the upper-90’s, imagine how that would mess with the batters. There’s a reason he has had success.

The other pro Steven Wright would offer out of the pen is giving the Red Sox another relief pitcher who could eat innings if needed. If the starting pitcher were knocked out of the game Wright could pitch for several innings. If the game went extra innings, Wright could essentially pitch for as long as the team needed him to.

The Cons

The first con would have to be the health of Wright’s knee. As stated before, Wright was put on the ALDS roster only to be removed after the first game due to the discomfort in his knee. What if Wright’s knee acted up again?

This really should not be a reason to keep Wright off the World Series roster. The team has other pitchers traveling with them; if Wright’s knee acted up again they could just replace him on the roster like they did in the ALDS.

The only other con I can see would be timing. Just like Wright’s knuckleball can mess with a hitters timing after seeing a healthy dose of fastballs, maybe it could do the same to the catcher trying to catch his knuckleball. But again, Wright has put up some impressive numbers out of the pen already down the stretch this season and can be a real weapon to have out of the bullpen.

The Verdict

I am definitely a proponent of adding Steve Wright to the roster for the World Series. His ability to pitch multiple innings if need be as well as his knuckleball messing with opponents’ timing is too much of a weapon to pass up. The team should replace Brandon Workman on the roster with Wright.

Although Workman was effective this year at 6-1 with a 3.27 ERA, he has not been the same pitcher of late. Workman allowed five runs over his final 2.2 innings this season. Small sample size, yes, but it has continued into the postseason. Workman has an ERA of 45.00 since the playoffs began. He has pitched three times, getting just one out in all three outings. He put on three baserunners in his first outing and allowed a run. His next outing he managed to get the one out without allowing a run, but did put two men on base. His outing in the ALCS was the worst yet, giving up four runs on three hits, two walks and two home runs. Workman can not be trusted in any meaningful role at the moment.

Workman has an ERA of 45.00 this postseason.

Other Roster Moves

The other roster move I would consider would be to add Bobby Poyner to the team. Poyner would give the Red Sox another lefty out of the pen, as currently all they have out there is usual starter Eduardo Rodriguez. Rodriguez isn’t exactly someone who would come in to face a lefty in a tight spot. With the Dodgers having Cody Bellinger and Joc Pederson, not to mention the fact Yasiel Puig struggles mightily versus lefties, and it might be a good idea to have someone throwing from the left side out there.

Poyner proved his worth when on the team this season, pitching to a 3.22 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and over a strike out per inning. Lefties batted a measly .143 against the rookie left-hander with only one walk and one extra-base hit. He could come in handy against the Dodgers.

Heath Hembree would be the other pitcher to go if the Sox were to add both Wright and Poyner. Hembree has pitched 3.2 shutout innings in the postseason, albeit in lower leverage spots. He also walked four guys over those innings, so he hasn’t been entirely sharp. This comes on the heels of a 4.20 ERA and 1.33 WHIP during the regular season. The only other option would be Eduardo Rodriguez, who has an ERA over 9.00 this postseason. Rodriguez has more value in his ability to pitch several innings if need be though, so I would keep him on the roster.

Featured picture from Bosoxinjection.com

Comparing the 2018 Red Sox to the 88 Teams Before Them

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The 2018 Red Sox are not only the team with the best record in baseball, they are the winningest team in franchise history. They have the chance to become the first team to reach 110+ wins since the 2001 Seattle Mariners. That is incredibly special, but many people want to ask: How special is it really?

Everyone can state that 106 wins is a rare feat, and they’re right. However, the numbers pertaining to how good this team is may shock you. Here, the 2018 Red Sox will be analyzed and compared to every single Red Sox team since 1930.

Offense

The 2018 Red Sox have two players who will likely eat up most of this season’s MVP votes in Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez. This team is an offensive catalyst that leads all of baseball in almost every single category. After a power absent offensive season in 2017, this team has transformed itself. One can almost call it mature or seasoned, at this point. Xander Bogaerts will more than likely reach the 100 RBI mark, Mookie will have a 30/30 year and Andrew Benintendi reached his career high in hits. They hit well against everyone, in any venue, and their record proves it.

Credit: Fangraphs (2018)

How Clutch Are They?

The Sox rank 25th in OPS (.787), 16th in wRC+ (109), 50th in batting average (.267), and 25th in runs scored (833). These are not mind-blowing numbers by any means. However, delving deeper into the numbers can show that the team is extremely clutch. In fact, they rank 3rd in a factor that Fangraphs literally calls “Clutch“. Granted, a Red Sox team without David Ortiz will never be as clutch as it could be. This 2018 team is different, and it can finally be said that they no longer need Big Papi in order to find success. On the season, the Red Sox rank first in RBIs which shows how efficient they have been. Not only do they get on base, but they also deliver when there is a chance to bring guys home.

The Red Sox currently have 199 home runs (12th) and will more than likely break the top 10 in franchise history. On the contrary, they walk at a rate of only 8.9, which lands them at the 59th spot. As far as strikeouts go, they rank 3rd highest at a 19.8% rate (which is still good for 5th lowest among teams in 2018). This trend can be attributed to a few things, such as the evolution of baseball or the aggressive hitting style Alex Cora has introduced. Another important asset of this team is the way they steal bases. They steal bases as efficiently as anyone has seen in recent years, even while lacking a true speedster. A 79.47 SB% ranks them first in all of baseball in 2018. The team has finally ditched the “Lead Sox” cliché.

(Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images)

Pitching

The 2018 Red Sox are known to have many public opinions about their pitching staff. It seems that one day, the pitchers can do no wrong and the next day, they are the worst pitching staff ever. Many pitchers have had moments of brilliance in this historic season. One could say that the Sox are having a decent season especially when compared to better pitching staffs like the Astros or the Dodgers. Comparing the 2018 Sox to those of season’s past show where this team’s true strength is.

Credit: Fangraphs (2018)

Dominant Outings

A simple comparison to those teams of the last 88 years will reveal that the 2018 Red Sox rank 12th in ERA (3.67), 2nd in strikeouts (1499), 1st in batting average against (.234), 3rd in WHIP (1.24), and 7th in saves (46). The average fan may think that the hitting has been the main reason for success this season, but the pitching is just as important. Having a good pitching staff that limits the opposition is very important. On the contrary, runs win games and having a great offense is key to making a deep playoff push. Having both on the same team in the same season is a deadly combination.

A more analytical viewpoint will show that the Slider has been the most effective pitch for the 2018 Red Sox. They posted a wSL figure of 27.1 and a wFB of 32.1 which is 4th best in the last two decades, for fastballs. They attained an xFIP of 3.92, which coincides with their team ERA and alludes to their defense being a good source of help for the year. Finally, when it comes to SIERA (my favorite pitching stat), the Red Sox have amounted to a figure of 3.73. This basically means that the pitching staff does an above average job at limiting hits and runs scored (they rank 5th out of all teams in 2018).

(Copyright ©2018 ESPN Internet Ventures. All rights reserved.)

In The End

This team will be looked at as one of the best in Red Sox history. Regardless of if they win a World Series title or not, this shows how far they have come and how much more these kids have to give. Boston is stuck with this core for a while and that should be celebrated for the fact that many teams go decades without witnessing something like this.

@ELJGON

Red Sox Should Target Three Relievers This Offseason

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The bullpen has been a thorn in the Boston Red Sox’s side many times in 2018. To say that it is a bad bullpen is, quite frankly, a bad statement. However, it seems that they may not be a threatening bullpen to opposing teams. They can get the job done, but are they reliable to have a lock-down inning when needed? Red Sox fans loathe the moment when a relief pitcher comes in to a high leverage situation, in 2018.

This season has been a fantastic one as of now. Currently at 103 wins and one win away from clinching their third AL East title in as many years. The writing seems to be already on the wall for this impending postseason. The bullpen is barely trustworthy.

This is a small cloud that is seen in a huge ray of sunshine. Not to be redundant, but this Red Sox team is legitimately good. However, every team has its weaknesses and this is one that can carry into next season if not addressed. Don’t expect a trade, as the Red Sox don’t have a lot of pieces they can afford to give away for the time being. Thus, it’s never too early to look at who the Red Sox could sign in the offseason. Here are three serious options they should consider:

kimbrel

1. Craig Kimbrel

Hear me out on this one before you shoot me.

Yes, we all know that Kimbrel isn’t having a fantastic season. Yes, he is having the worst season of his career when it comes down to FIP. A statistic that is, of many things, very telling of how a pitcher could perform in the future.

When it comes down to who the Red Sox currently have that can take over in case of Kimbrel’s departure, it’s frightening. Currently the closer role would have to go to Ryan Brasier, who has been the most reliable pitcher this season for the Sox. Even then, Brasier is unproven (38.1 IP in his MLB career) and Kimbrel should not be replaced with Brasier just yet. Also, some current closers on the 2019 free agent market are not worth breaking the bank for.

Kimbrel knows what it’s like to pitch in Boston, experience the media, fans, ballpark and the pressure of a big market. He’s experienced success and struggles with this team. He knows what is needed of him, and he is the best available option in the 2019 free agency class. It’s time to trust Kimbrel again.

Miller2

2. Andrew Miller

Andrew Miller has been on my list of “Relief pitchers I want next season” and there are a lot of reasons as to why this still holds water. Since 2016, he is ranked first (high leverage situations) in average against, ERA, FIP, xFIP, WHIP, BB/9, and K/BB among all relief pitchers that will be a free agent in 2019.

He’s been to a World Series, seen success and failure throughout his career and is a seasoned veteran. Also to note, he has a 1.10 ERA in 32.2 Postseason innings pitched.

One final note is that he has also experienced what Boston has to offer, being that he was with the club for four seasons. He knows what is expected of him just like Kimbrel, and Miller can be the guy that can bring this bullpen to a new level if added.

Familia2

3. Jeurys Familia

Never would a former Mets player would be on a list of players that I would put my trust in, yet here we are.

Jeurys Familia has quietly put together a pretty good career up to this point. Albeit, he hasn’t looked unhittable since joining Oakland but that’s besides the point. His numbers in high leverage situations are very good and he does a great job at keeping the ball in the yard. Familia is someone that the Sox can potentially replace Kimbrel with if talks fall through. He’s proven to the world that he can close out games (51 saves in 2016) and can produce in a big market city.

One final note on Familia, is that he is younger than the aforementioned options. This is one less worry for when this team has to lock up some of the younger guys.

@ELJGON

Velazquez

The Rise of Hector Velazquez

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Last year Hector Velazquez made his MLB debut and went 3-1 in eight appearances as a starter and reliever. The Red Sox signed Velazquez after his 2016 breakout season in the Mexican League. Over the last two seasons he has provided the Sox with rotation depth. On May 18th of last season, he made his first MLB start and gave up six runs against Oakland. Since then he has been one of the best Red Sox pitchers whenever called upon. This season has been no different.

Injuries Test Red Sox Early

The Red Sox were tested early this year as Drew Pomeranz and Steven Wright began the season on the disabled list. As a result, both Brian Johnson and Velazquez made the opening day roster. Johnson started off the season well before struggling as his ERA has risen to 4.67. Velazquez has been of the Red Sox best pitchers as his 2.15 ERA ranks second on the team behind Joe Kelly. He has proven to be a reliable arm as a starter and a reliever. This has improved the Red Sox depth and has given them options when they’ve dealt with injury. Velazquez has rewarded Boston faith with his performance.

Velazquez

Photo Credit: AP Photo/ Michael Dwyer

Velazquez’s Value by the Numbers

In thirteen appearances this season, including two as a starter, he is 5-0. In 29.1 innings of work he has twenty strikeouts and has walked only eight batters. He has allowed thirty-two hits on the season, but he has only allowed seven earned runs. In six appearances in May, Velazquez has only allowed two earned runs. He is not a strikeout pitcher but he knows how to use the strike zone. As Brian Johnson has struggled, Velazquez has emerged as one of Alex Cora’s most trusted bullpen arms.

Velazquez

Photo Credit: Brian Blanco/Getty Images

Can Velazquez Keep This Up?

Velazquez has appeared in twenty-one games at the major league level recording a 2.50 ERA. The Red Sox showed their faith in him when they activated the righty of the disabled list and optioned Bobby Poyner who had a 1.86 ERA in nine appearances to Pawtucket. As the innings pile up, Velazquez’s durability will be tested. In Velazquez’s young major league career he has done nothing but give the Red Sox quality innings. If he can continue to pitch well, then this could be a breakout season for the former Mexican league star.

Bobby Poyner

Bobby Poyner’s Unwavering Perseverance

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Bobby Poyner has been lights-out for the Red Sox bullpen this season. His performance has made some wonder how he flew under the radar for so long. The Red Sox drafted Poyner in the 14th round of the 2015 MLB Draft. He is a fearless lefty that has the ability to get batters out from both sides of the plate. His numbers in the minors have been impressive. If he can keep up his early season performance then by the end of the season he could be a Cinderella story of the 2018 season.

Bobby Poyner in the Minors

In four minor league seasons Poyner has recorded a 2.34 ERA. Before making his major league debut this season, the highest level Poyner reached was AA, where he dominated. In 27 appearances for Portland last year he recorded a 0.94 ERA. In 38 innings he struck out 52 batters. That impressive campaign earned him an invitation to Spring Training, where the former Florida Gator did not disappoint. Poyner earned his spot as in Spring Training he recorded a 0.87 ERA. He’s carried that dominate performance into the regular season.

Bobby Poyner

Photo Credit: NESN Staff

Poyner Excelling in the Majors

Poyner has pitched 9.2 innings in the majors this season and has an ERA of 1.86. He is averaging a strikeout an inning. Poyner has given up 12 hits this season, but has only allowed two earned runs. He spent some time on the disabled list earlier in the season costing him a spot in the bullpen. When healthy, Manager Alex Cora has not been afraid to use him in high leverage situations. Despite his impressive start, Poyner was sent down to Pawtucket when the Red Sox activated fellow reliever Hector Velazquez from the disabled list.

Bobby Poyner

Photo Credit: Maddie Meyer/ Getty Images

Will He Be Back?

This is not the last that Red Sox fans will see of Poyner this season. If he continues to excell in the minors, then the Red Sox will find a spot for him. He has grabbed every opportunity like his career has depended on it and delivered. How long Poyner stays in Pawtucket is unknown. If Poyner can continue to pitch well then the Sox will have a choice to make. As Poyner has done throughout his career he will not make it an easy one.

Carson Smith: Bounce Back Season Or Back To The DL?

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While his start to the season has proved to be a rocky one at best, will he be able to turn it around?

For Carson Smith, his recovery from Tommy John surgery is over 2 years in the making. While landing himself on the disabled list yet again has stirred up some controversy. After leaving Monday’s 6-5 loss in the end of the 8th, he threw his glove during a tantrum which resulted the injury.

On Wednesday, Smith said in a statement: ” “I think my shoulder’s tired in general, just from pitching. I’ve thrown a lot lately and I think my arm was just tired.” Later that day, manager Alex Cora made a surprisingly different statement when asked about smith’s comments: “I don’t agree with it. On a daily basis we talk to pitchers and how they feel. If they don’t think they can pitch that day, we stay away from them.” He added, “It caught me by surprise. If he felt that way he should’ve told it to us or he should’ve mentioned it.”

While they handle the injury, the bullpen still has guys like Kimbrel,Kelly, and hopefully a bounce back week from guys such as : Johnson, and Hembree. While the bullpen hasn’t lived up to expectations, it’s still a long season. Combined, the bullpen sports a 6-4 record with a 3.63 combined ERA in just over 100 innings of relief work. While also tallying 121 strikeouts combined.

Smith is responsible for a 1-1 record with a 3.77 ERA through 14.1 innings pitched and striking out 18. After a fantastic showing in his Red Sox debut last season, the numbers haven’t matched up.

The latest update:

Smith was placed on the 10 day Dl as of yesterday. The team also recalling relief pitcher Bobby Poyner from AAA Pawtucket. Also completing the Deven Marerro trade by acquiring LHP Josh Taylor today as well. How both the team and Smith himself handles this situation remains to be seen. Soon enough, time will tell if Smith is bust or bounce back material.