When the Red Sox and Yankees usually meet it is a contest of an immovable object vs an unstoppable force. In this case the immovable object is a losing record for both teams, the unstoppable force injury on one side and mediocrity on the other.
The Yankee injuries include Stanton, Severino, Gregroious, Betances, Sanchez, Hicks and Andujar. That’s an All Star team. Not for nothing, but Aaron Judge seems like the only important piece not injured. They’re record is 6-9 and there’s a very good reason for it.
And then there is the 6-11 Red Sox. If I have to hear ‘It’s early’ one more time I might just burn one of my many Red Sox towels. The ravens have flown, it is officially spring. This team is sleep walking right now and it has to stop. On to the preview:
Image per Larry Brown Sports
Pitching Matchups/Schedule (TV)
4/16 Chris Sale vs James Paxton 6:35 NESN
417 Nathan Eovaldi vs J.A. Happ 6:35 ESPN
Notable Numbers
1.93: That is the ERA for both Chris Sale and Nathan Eovaldi against the Yankees in the last three years. They’re certified Yankee killers. Could this be just what the doctor ordered to get these guys on track? Who can say?
Against Paxton, J.D. Martinez should continue his hot start to the season. He’s hit .500 against Paxton in his career. Both Brock Holt and JBJ have gone 3-7 against him as well. That short porch in right at Yankee Stadium might be beneficial to the Sox slumbering bats.
The Sox may hit Happ to a measly .212 as a team, but Steve Pearce has shined: .344 lifetime with 6 home runs.
What To Watch For
How about a little life from the boys? How about a glimmer of hope that the team is here to play this year? If you listened to Cora after Patriots Day he seemed to sense that maybe it’s not so early. On paper the Sox should sweep the two game series.
Expectations
It’s anyone’s guess right now. Even if the Sox sweep these two games it will be against half the Yankees. Look for signs of life. If we see grind it out at bats and pitchers hitting locations early we’ll know the Sox are waking up. But Nathan Eovaldi has a 8.40 ERA, Chris Sale a 9.0 ERA. The team is hitting around .230 overall right now.
Again, on paper, this is a Red Sox sweep. But the flesh and blood Sox are teetering on the precipice of irrelevancy. The fact the Yankees are reeling is the only light in our collective Sox universe.
I’m hoping for Cora to put on his cape and cowl and give us another super hero managerial performance. To save this team from themselves. But it sure looks like the Night King has set up residence in the clubhouse.
This weekend is one of my favorite as a Red Sox fan, culminating in Patriots Day. Hopefully this year, the Patriots Day series can inspire the Red Sox to turn their season around.
PITCHING MATCHUPS/SCHEDULE (TV)
4/12 Eduardo Rodriguez vs. David Hess (R) 7:10pm NESN
In what is becoming the weekly Chris Sale report, we enter another stage of this saga. Sale’s average fastball velocity was back at 92 mph, after being 89.9 in the previous start in Oakland. The results against Toronto still were not what we want to see, and the fastball still sits a couple of mph below his career average. Let’s see what Monday brings.
The Orioles enter this series after losing their last series 1-3 to the Athletics. Offensively they struggled in the last three games, averaging just 3.33 runs per game. Overall this season the Orioles rank 22nd in OBP, 21st in home runs and 21st in slugging percentage this season.
The Red Sox offense is continuing to heat up over the last few games. Now they face up against an Orioles pitching staff which ranks 29th in ERA, WHIP and batting average against.
None of the pitchers scheduled to start for the Orioles have much history against the Red Sox. The Oriole with the most appearances against the Red Sox is first baseman Chris Davis. In 595 PA against the Red Sox, he owns a .220 batting average, .299 OBP, .393 slugging percentage and 23 home runs.
Mitch Moreland went deep again in the first game of the Blue Jays series. Entering the second game of that series, he leads the Red Sox with four home runs on the season. With another three right-handed pitchers on the slate, he could play a big part once again in this series.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
The Bullpen: With a three run lead in the ninth on Tuesday Matt Barnes got the save opportunity, but after giving up a run the save was completed by Colten Brewer. It will be interesting to see who sees the next save opportunity. The smart money is likely on Ryan Brasier, but it is interesting that he did not get a shot on Tuesday.
Starting Pitching: There are still a lot of questions around this rotation, with all five starters having an ERA over five right now. After six games against the relatively slow starting Blue Jays and Orioles it would be good to see the rotation show some promising signs. Hector Velazquez was interesting in his spot start and could have a shot at the rotation if these struggles continue.
EXPECTATIONS
If the Red Sox can finish of the Blue Jays series with a win and then sweep the Orioles they could be close to .500. After starting 3-8 on the road, they need to at least win four these six games. They have already lost one, meaning they can only really afford one more loss in this home stand.
If they head into New York next Tuesday much worse than 7-10, then questions are really going to start to be raised. We are by no means too far into the season for this to turnaround. However, losing series to the Orioles and Blue Jays would be pretty concerning for a team with World Series ambitions.
The opening road trip from hell is over. Unfortunately, the Red Sox return home from that trip with a 3-8 record. However, they find the Toronto Blue Jays coming to town, who have also had their struggles so far this season.
4/11 Nathan Eovaldi vs. Aaron Sanchez (R) 7:10pm NESN
NOTABLE NUMBERS
The results were better for Chris Sale in his second start, but the way he got there was concerning. The hope was that Sale could improve on his 92.9 mph average fastball velocity from his first start. However, things actually got worse, as Sale averaged just 89.9 mph in his second start of the season in Oakland. He may have only given up one run, but he also only struck out one, compared to two walks.
The Blue Jays were 0-4 in their last series against the Cleveland Indians, largely thanks to their terrible offense. This season the Blue Jays offense ranks 27th in batting average, 29th in OBP, 27th in runs and 26th in slugging percentage.
The Red Sox offense heated up in their last series against the Diamondbacks, averaging seven runs per game. However, they go up against a team who have been pitching well. The Blue Jays are giving up an average of just 2.75 runs against (3rd) and a .194 batting average against (4th). In addition, they are allowing just 1.05 combined hits and walks per innings pitched. However, their schedule has consisted of the Tiger, Orioles and Indians, so this will be their toughest test to date.
Aaron Sanchez has faced off with the Sox 19 times, 11 times as a starter. In 71 innings against the Red Sox, he has a 4.06 ERA striking out 62 batters and a allowing a 1.282 WHIP. Shoemaker on the other hand has been strong against the Red Sox. He is 2-1, with 16 strikeouts in 15 innings and a 2.93 ERA.
Mitch Moreland is coming off an interesting series in Arizona. The left-handed slugger hit two home runs in nine ABs, but they were also his only two hits of the series. With two right-handed pitchers on the slate for this series, Moreland could be a crucial part of the Red Sox offense as they return home.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
The Bullpen: With Craig Kimbrel potentially returning to Fenway for the World Series ring ceremony, the Red Sox come home with a number of question about their bullpen still remaining. Colten Brewer gave up the game losing run on Saturday, before Ryan Brasier got the save on Sunday. Both Brasier and Matt Barnes have been really good this season, with neither giving up a run. However, with the Red Sox having given up so many runs early in games we have not had many chances to see these guys in high leverage situations.
Starting Pitching: After the hitters somewhat came alive in their last series, most of the Red Sox question remain with their pitching. We touched on Sale above, and he remains the biggest one to watch, both in terms of results and velocity. Eovaldi has given up nine earned runs in 10 innings, including four home runs. After a strong finish to last season, the Red Sox will be desperate to see Eovaldi get back on track.
EXPECTATIONS
This was never the way the season was supposed to start. 3-8 is not the end of the world, but it is obviously less than ideal. On the bright side, the team is healthy in the large majority. There are major concerns about the rotation, but we are looking at extremely small sample sizes. Two good starts for any of them and their numbers will look fine, if not back to the way we may have hoped when the season started.
The negatives are clear to see, but the positives should not be overlooked. The Red Sox are just 4.5 games back on the division leading Tampa Bay Rays. They are also just two games behind the Yankees, who have not been great out of the gate and are struggling with injuries. We are less than 7% of the way through the season.
There is a lot of baseball still to play, and one of the toughest parts of the schedule is in the rear view mirror.
This is one of those times as a Red Sox fan and follower that feels so familiar and foreign all at once. It’s like a long lost thought from limbo in Inception. When one win seems like the glorious sound of God, coming down like a lightning rod. This Red Sox puzzle seems to make no sense. The team won 108 last year, it’s the same team, what is happening?
There is trouble. There’s the World Series hangover effect, there’s concern about contracts. And Alex Cora and his staff have their plans that they want to stick to for long term success. What to do when the team isn’t winning?
Play every game like it’s Game 7 of the World Series.
Pitchers
Five pitchers. In one sense it was a bullpen game. In another it was no different than many games this year when the starter only goes three innings. The difference was Velazquez put up zeroes.
Cora needs to do more of this. Keep the pitchers accountable. Every win is important right now or there won’t be a playoffs. Motivate the pitchers to get over their malaise and focus on every pitch in any way possible. Once these guys get on track the bullpen can rest. Most of the starters have their money. Take innings away from them before they blow up, not after.
Little did we know the bullpen would be the strength of the team. Lean on them.
The Everyday Lineup
One of the pillars of Cora’s plan is resting players. He especially loves to give players a day off before scheduled days off. But there is rest, then there is overkill.
It seems insignificant, but that small note, “Betts in right field”, speaks volumes. Betts was scheduled for the double rest, but Cora put him in the field to protect a one run lead in the 9th.
This is a big change for Cora and the staff that should continue. In the past, Cora has refused to pinch hit resting players, much less put them in the field. It signals to the players that these games matter.
It seems like Cora has found an answer to the puzzle of resting players, but not being afraid to use them if needed. We’ll see how Chris Sale does tomorrow to see if he’s still in on Cora’s plan for a slow buildup. And if Sale falters early if Cora will pull him. That will show the pitchers that every win is important.
These are subtle but important changes that the team should stick to to get the ball rolling in 2019. Before yesterday, the team would have to play .600 ball the rest of the way to reach 93 wins. They might miss the playoffs with 93 wins, so they have to pick it up. They played .667 ball last year, we know they’re capable.
With another tough series in the rear view mirror the Boston Red Sox head to Arizona. They have a three game slate scheduled to finish off their 11 game road trip.
PITCHING MATCHUPS/SCHEDULE (TV)
4/5 Rick Porcello vs. Zack Godley (R) 7:10pm NESN
4/6 David Price vs. Luke Weaver (R) 8:10pm NESN
4/7 Undecided vs. Merrill Kelly (R) 4:10pm NESN
NOTABLE NUMBERS
Rick Porcello comes into his second start of the season with a 13.5 ERA. Meanwhile, David Price has a 6.00 ERA after his first start. Porcello was unable to get out of the first innings against the Mariners. Price at least managed to go six innings, but gave up four earned runs, including three home runs in the process. The Red Sox desperately need two of their veteran pitchers to correct what has been a worrying opening week for the rotation.
The Arizona Diamondbacks offense is crushing it in 2019 so far. Prior to Wednesday’s games they ranked third in the majors in batting average, runs, home runs and slugging percentage. The 14 home runs the Diamondbacks have hit will be a particular concern for a Red Sox staff. The Sox pitchers have given up 17 home runs, which is last in the AL.
Offensively the Red Sox have been slow out of the gate, ranking 20th in on base percentage and 17th in both batting average and slugging percentage. So far they have relied on home runs to fuel their offense, hitting seven long balls to help them rank ninth in the majors in runs scored with 30.
J.D. Martinez returns to the face the team that helped propel him onto the national stage. In 62 games with the Diamondbacks in 2017, Martinez hit 29 home runs in 232 AB, with an incredible .741 slugging percentage. Hopefully he can find some form after a series in Oakland in which he has registered just three hits through his first three games.
The Red Sox will see a long time foe in Adam Jones in this series. Jones, who has three home runs for the Diamondbacks already this season, has a career .279 batting average with 28 home runs when facing the Red Sox. The only team he has hit more home runs against is the Toronto Blue Jays.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
The Rotation: There are a couple of fascinating rotation questions in this series. Firstly, who will the Red Sox choose to fill the final starting spot of the series? With Chris Sale likely to be saved for the home opener the Red Sox need a sixth starter to fill out their rotation for one start. They could call up someone from Triple-A, but there are no obvious candidates. The other option is that they could have a bullpen day to fill that spot. However, that depends on how much use the ‘pen gets in the opening two games.
The Red Sox will also be extremely keen to see the results when Price and Porcello take the mound this week. With Nathan Eovaldi struggling through two starts and Eduardo Rodriguez being shelled in his first start, at least one of these two needs to step up and provide some stability.
Hitting Depth: Xander Bogaerts returned to the lineup Wednesday, which will be a relief for the Sox. If Bogaerts had needed longer out of the lineup then there would have been some questions. Both Eduardo and Nunez and Brock Holt of struggled out of the gate, and the Red Sox may have considered activating Dustin Pedroia earlier than planned.
EXPECTATIONS
This has been an incredibly tough start for the Red Sox and frankly we just want to get them home now. Entering Wednesdays game they had a 2-5 record, and will enter the Diamondbacks series without a series win to their name. After 11 straight days they will also have Monday off to regroup, get home and prepare for the home opener. That doesn’t make winning this series any less important. However, if they can escape this series with even just a single win it is not the end of the world. 3-8 or 4-7 is not a disaster, especially with the Yankees also having stumbled out of the gate (2-4).
A series win would be great but if it doesn’t happen it is not the end of the world. This will be one of the toughest stretches of the season, and it is out of the way early. It may not have gone entirely to plan but the Red Sox can recover in the coming weeks.
After a mixed opening to the season in Seattle, the Red Sox head to Oakland to continue an 11 game road trip. Here is what to watch out for in this second of three opening road series.
PITCHING MATCHUPS/SCHEDULE (TV)
4/1 David Price vs Aaron Brooks (R) 10:07pm NESN
4/2 Chris Sale vs Mike Fiers (R) 10:07pm NESN
4/3 Nathan Eovaldi vs Marco Estrada (R) 10:07pm NESN
4/4 Eduardo Rodriguez vs Brett Anderson (L) 3:07pm NESN
NOTABLE NUMBERS
The biggest question mark in this series is going to be Chris Sale’s velocity. Thomas touched on it in his preview last week and his fears were somewhat realized. Sale’s fastball averaged 92.8 mph in Seattle on Opening Day. Last season he averaged below that just twice, the fourth game of the season (90.9) and the last (90.1). Last season on Opening Day his velocity was up at 94.9. If Sale’s velocity is low again in Oakland then serious question marks will start to be raised.
Due to the Opening Series in Japan, Mike Fiers and Marco Estrada will be making their third starts of the season. Fiers has struggled with a 5.00 ERA and a 5.71 FIP across nine innings. Estrada has fared better with a 2.45 ERA in his 11 innings. However, Estrada has managed just four strikeouts, compared to two home runs and has an alarming 5.49 FIP.
After a home run loaded Opening Series in Seattle, the Red Sox will not be pleased to see Khris Davis, who has already hit three home runs this season.
Eduardo Rodriguez will not be pleased to see a right-handed heavy Athletics lineup. He struck out just 24% of right-handed hitters he faced last season, and surrendered a 4.15 xFIP against them.
Expect to see J.D. Martinez have a strong series with three right-handed pitchers on the mound. In 2018, he had a 174 wRC+ against righties. Unusually for right-handed hitters, Martinez was stronger last season against righties than lefties.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
The Rotation: With the bullpen likely to remain a question mark until it has completely proven otherwise, a lot of pressure will fall on the rotation. Sale is obviously the biggest question mark but there are also questions surrounding Eovaldi and Rodriguez after their first starts.
Hitting Depth: There are no major worries around the hitters at this early stage. However, Nunez, Holt and Swihart had registered just one hit between them in the Sox first three games. With Dustin Pedroia on the injured list the Red Sox need their hitting depth to help them get off to a strong start.
EXPECTATIONS
Many people saw the Opening Series as a disadvantage to the Athletics and Mariners, due to the amount of travel. However, at this stage of the season it is actually an advantage. Those two teams had to ramp up their season preparation a week earlier than everyone else and are therefore slightly ahead of the rest of the league. Travelling to both of those teams in the first eight days of the season is a tough assignment for the Red Sox. The Sox also come into this game having gone 1-2 on the road in Oakland, and 2-4 overall against them last season.
A three series road trip to start the season is really tough for any team. The pros of it are that it gets some of the travelling out of the way early. However, the Red Sox would ideally want to come out of these first eight games around .500, meaning they will need to at least split this four game series in Oakland.
The defending champs face off against a stripped down Seattle Mariners team in a four game series starting today in Seattle. Here’s what to look for as the Red Sox kick off the 2019 season.
Pitching Matchups/Schedule (TV)
3/28 Chris Sale vs Marco Gonzalez 7:10pm ESPN/NESN
3/29 Nathan Eovaldi vs Yusei Kikuchi 10:10pm NESN
3/30 Eduardo Rodriguez vs Mike Leake 9:10pm NESN
3/31 Rick Porcello vs Wade LeBlanc 4:10pm NESN
Notable Numbers
Rookie Yusei Kikuchi pitched well in his Major League debut in his Japanese homeland last week, allowing 2 runs (1 earned) in 4.1 Innings against the A’s. Long time watchers of the Sox know this team can struggle against pitchers they see for the first time. This could be a very interesting match-up, because Nathan Eovaldi went 2-6 with a 5.14 ERA on the road last year.
Chris Sale had an insane .766 WHIP on the road last year (just another Bugs Bunny number from 2018), going 8-2 in those situations. But the most important number will be his average fastball velocity. A low 90s number means he’s on track, high 90’s (on average) means there isn’t a plan for his long term health, 80s may signal shoulder weakness.
J.D. Martinez has 2 Home Runs and hit .384 against the three Mariners starters he’s seen.
Edwin Encarnacion could be trouble. In 86 career at bats against the Red Sox starters, he’s hit .314 with 6 Home Runs and 17 RBI.
What To Watch For
The Bullpen: Alex Cora told us he would reveal the closer when the situation presented itself in the regular season. Will we see Brasier in the 8th, Barnes in the 9th? Will Cora deploy the bullpen based purely on match-ups regardless of the inning? We should know a lot more after this series.
Sam Travis: With Steve Pearce down, Sam Travis gets to face left-handed starters in the early part of the season. If he performs well with this chance he could guarantee a lot more playing time throughout the season. He’ll face three left handed starters in this series. He only hit .244 in Spring Training so he’ll have to pick it up quickly.
Expectations
The Sox went 4-3 against the surprisingly competitive Mariners last year. Since then the M’s have traded Robinson Cano, Jean Seguara, Edwin Diaz, and James Paxton. They also lost Nelson Cruz to free agency. That would be their best everyday players, their Closer, and their Ace. They’ve brought in replacements Edwin Encarnacion, Yusei Kikuchi and Hunter Strickland, but that’s a big step down. They’re riding high and feeling confident after sweeping the As 2 – 0 in Japan.
The biggest question for the Red Sox is how they will play coming off winning the World Series in 2018. Going on the road is never easy, but the Sox are still a juggernaut and should win three of these games at least. It feels like the team wants to make a statement. A split will be a disappointment.
The Baseball season is now just around the corner. We are starting to see pitchers throw more innings, and hitters see more time at the plate in Spring Training. The Red Sox season kicks off in a fraction over two weeks time (15 days) on the road in Seattle. Therefore, let’s carry on our series projecting how the Red Sox hitters will do at the plate. In the last couple of weeks we have looked at J.D. Martinez and Mookie Betts. Today we look at Andrew Benintendi.
Mr. Consistent
Unlike Martinez and Betts, Benintendi is not the type of hitter who will make headlines with his hitting. However, what he offers is consistent hitting across the board, with just enough of everything to keep everyone happy. In fact the last two years have looked extremely similar for Benintendi, right down to the number of plate appearances.
2018 did see Benintendi take a slight dip in his power numbers compared to 2017, from 20 home runs to 16. Interestingly, last season he actually increased his average exit velocity and barrel % over 2017. The likely reason his power numbers dipped is due to slight decrease in his launch angle. Usually, you would like to see those numbers come back up, but the results of that launch angle change were seen elsewhere.
Getting on Base
Last season saw Benintendi increase his batting average from .271 to .290. That is an increase that is absolutely worth losing a handful of home runs. The really good news is that the increase was not a fluke. Benintendi’s expected batting average was .282 last season, slightly lower than the final output, but not a number which suggests major regression. A report from the Boston Herald suggested that Benintendi may focus on batting average even more this year, even if it comes at the expense of power.
In addition, Benintendi backed up his solid 10.6% walk rate in 2017 with a 10.7% number in 2018. While it only puts him 34th among qualified hitters, it combines really nicely with that batting average. In 2018, Benintendi ranked 29th in on base percentage, one of three Red Sox hitters in the top 30. His ability to get on base consistently is why many project him to hit leadoff.
Leadoff Hitter?
Hitting in the number one spot is not for everyone. We have seen some hitters struggle with the pressure of being the first man up for their team. However, when Benintendi was asked to hit leadoff in 2018 he thrived. In a small sample size of 97 plate appearances, Benintendi had a .322 batting average a .381 OBP. His walk rate was down slightly, but that was replaced and by getting on base more consistently with his bat.
Interestingly, despite having less than sixth of his plate appearances in the leadoff spot, Benintendi actually hit nearly a third of his home runs last season there. The Herald report suggests that is not a trend we will see continuing this season, but it is worth noting.
One reason that Benintendi may be changing his approach to become a leadoff hitter is because of his record hitting with the bases empty. Last season, Benintendi returned a .243 batting average when at the plate with no one on base. That is in contrast to a .350 batting average with men on base, and a .338 return with men in scoring position. If Benintendi is to hold down the leadoff spot, he will need to improve on that split in 2019.
Running Wild?
Another element of Benintendi’s game which has been consistent the last two years has been his base stealing. Benintendi has attempted 25 and 24 steals respectively over the last two seasons. He has been successful on 20 and 21. His over 80% conversion rate on stolen bases comes despite ranking 212th in the majors in sprint speed last season. For context, that placed him in the 68th percentile of major league players. Above average, but not by much.
How Benintendi, and the Red Sox, approach base stealing will be interesting now that he is in the leadoff spot. On one hand you have a player who has had success on the base paths. On the other hand, his relative lack of speed comparatively could be a reason we see him running less. There is also the case of whether it is worth the risk of running Benintendi into potential outs when he is hitting in front of two of the most productive hitters in baseball. How incredibly stupid would everyone look if Benintendi was thrown out at second, only for Betts or Martinez to crush the next ball out of the park?
Given the success rate from the last two years you would expect to see Benintendi given the opportunity to steal bases this season. If he has issues then maybe the Red Sox rethink that, either mid season or for 2020. If the Red Sox do allow Benintendi to run at similar rate, then the extra plate appearances from leading off could mean that he has a shot to steal 25 bases. If they let him run a little more from the leadoff position, which they did last year, then 30 stolen bases could legitimately be on the cards for Benintendi.
Overall Production
Hitting largely first or second in the order last year, Benintendi returned 103 runs and 87 RBI. The switch to leadoff is likely to see those numbers slant even further to the runs side in 2019. A rough projection on his return would still be a combined 190, but more in the region of 115 runs compared to 75 RBI. Usually we can see leadoff hitters struggle for RBI, but the bottom of the Red Sox order has enough talent that Benintendi should still see plenty of opportunities to drive in runs.
Therefore, a final projection for Benintendi is likely to be somewhere in the region of 12-15 home runs, 115 runs, 75 RBI, a .290-.300 batting average and 25-30 stolen bases. Again, not the headline numbers of his two superstar teams mates, but an extremely good return from a player who seems to be willing to put team goals above personal glory.
I had the pleasure of chatting with former Red Sox second baseman Jeff Frye. Frye played in the Major Leagues for eight seasons, three of which came in Boston. He was a career .290 hitter, .295 with the Red Sox. Nowadays, Frye works as a sports agent at Frye McCann Sports and does some pre and postgame work for the Texas Rangers.
BSE: You began your career as a 30th round draft pick; what was it like clawing your way up to the Majors?
Jeff Frye: I never even thought I really had a chance of making it to the Majors to be honest. Every Spring Training I would drive down from Oklahoma with my buddies and wonder if this was the year I was getting released. Obviously, everybody’s goal is to play in the Major Leagues, but when you’re a 30th round draft pick and you don’t even start really your first season, it’s not looking too promising.
BSE: I actually saw a video of you online talking about how you changed your stance and upped your offensive production. That was pretty neat to see.
Jeff Frye: It was kind of a fluke deal. I’d done really well in A-Ball, won the batting title in low A-Ball and hit like .270 in high A-Ball. Went to AA and the defense was so much better, and the pitching was so much better at AA and I was struggling for probably two months. Just goofing around one evening after a game in the hotel, and I was imitating a lot of the Rangers star players at the time, Ruben Sierra and Juan Gonzalez, they had big leg kicks. I was imitating those guys and the guy I was playing with, who was actually my roommate, Rick Wrona, he says why don’t you hit like that in a game? The next day I started hitting that way and man, it gave me a huge boost in confidence. I started hitting, I could drive the ball and had more leverage. I just kept doing that the rest of my career.
1992: Jeff Frye of the Texas Rangers with his high leg kick. (Photo by Robert Beck/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
BSE: There’s been a lot of talk lately about the pay for Minor Leaguers, do you think they need to be doing something about that?
Jeff Frye: Yeah, I mean they should’ve done something about it a long time ago. My first year was 1988, and I started out at $700 a month. The Major League minimum was right around $100,000, or 109,000, something like that. Now the minimum’s over $500,000 and starting pay for a first year Minor Leaguer is $1,100 [a month]. It hasn’t progressed.
BSE: You made it to the Major Leagues in 1992 and played a decent amount. Your first Major League home run was actually leading off a game.
Jeff Frye: It’s actually funny, way back in 1992 there weren’t too many games on tv. I think it was a Saturday game, one of the few games that was actually televised. I actually led off the game off Arthur Rhodes with a home run. Our game actually wasn’t the one they were covering, but they clicked over and showed the start of our game. I actually became friends with Arthur Rhodes after that.
BSE: You missed all of ’93 right?
Jeff Frye: Yep, offseason basketball injury. I was playing basketball and tore my ACL, and I kind of lied about what happened to the Rangers. I didn’t have a guaranteed contract so I told them I was jogging.
BSE: In 1994 you came back and batted .327, you had a good season in ’95 and played in 90 games. How come you were in AAA in ’96 for Texas?
Jeff Frye: Well, the new manager they brought over, Johnny Oates from Baltimore, wasn’t a big fan of mine for some reason. He brought Mark McLemore over from Baltimore with him, who also played second base. He was trying to get his guy in there, the guy he felt comfortable with, and I felt like I had earned the spot with what I’d done the year before. Toward the end of the [’95] season I was so frustrated I went on a radio show and the guys were asking me what was going on. I told them how I felt and the Rangers got word of it; Johnny Oates got word of it, and I was pretty much banished after that.
BSE: You were released in June of 1996 and the Red Sox picked you up the very same day, so they must have seen something in you.
Jeff Frye: It was an arranged deal. Billy Martin Jr. is a longtime friend of mine, Billy Martin’s son, he was representing Kevin Kennedy. He called Kennedy up, the Red Sox were struggling, I think they had Wil Cordero and Jeff Manto playing second. Kennedy was looking for a second baseman and he was familiar with me. Billy Martin Jr. said, “well hey, the guy you need is in AAA.” So, they inquired about me, and the Rangers had the choice of either calling me up to the big leagues or letting me go, so they ended up letting me go.
BSE: Your Sox debut was the same day John Valentin hit for the cycle.
Jeff Frye: Funny thing is, Val and I played together in the Jayhawk League, a collegiate league back in the day. He came down to Fort Smith, Arkansas to play for our team. I grew up in Oklahoma so I was playing for that team and we became friends and then we were teammates in Boston….He taught me a lot, I was really raw. I hadn’t had much coaching to that point, I mean a routine grounder to second base was a bang-bang play at first, I didn’t know to charge the ball. Working with Val, he taught me a lot.
Jeff Frye from around the time he met John Valentin.
BSE: You mentioned how the Red Sox were struggling when they got you; they were 22-34. Went 63-43 afterwards and if I remember correctly had the best record in baseball after the All-Star Break.
Jeff Frye: Yeah, we had a great combination of me and Darren Bragg at the top of the lineup. I told Kevin Kennedy, I want to hit and run every single time there’s a runner on first base. I asked him if he’d allow me to put on my own hit and run with Darren Bragg, which doesn’t happen very often, you know? So, I developed a sign with Darren Bragg…because he was always hitting in front of me. I bet I had 30 base hits that year on hit and run, with Braggy running and me just hitting the ball in the hole.
BSE: I had Kevin Kennedy comment to me once about the rejuvenated team in the second half and he singled out you, Bragg and Reggie Jefferson for key contributors to that run.
Jeff Frye: Reggie was a hitting machine, we called him “the Hit Cat.” He was the one guy that I’ve ever seen…that actually worked on hitting the ball in batting practice to where it’d be a hit in the game. I’d never heard of that before, I was just trying to hit the ball hard. He was a great hitter.
BSE: What were some of the big changes coming from Texas to Boston?
Jeff Frye: Obviously the temperature was a big change. I think probably the biggest change was the pressure that you played under, and the excitement level. I never really had that in Texas, when I was there, we were never really in a pennant race. Coming to Boston we had the rivalry with the Yankees.
BSE: Speaking of the Yankees, I think you were the one on base in front of Trot Nixon when he homered off Clemens in that big Pedro vs Clemens game, right?
Jeff Frye: Oh yeah, there’s a great story to that if you want to hear it.
BSE: Oh, absolutely!
Jeff Frye: The at-bat that I got on base I got an infield hit, but earlier in that at-bat there was a pitch in on me that hit the knob of the bat and I acted like it hit my hand. I was jumping around and waving my hand, and Jimy Williams came out and argued with the umpire. Jimy called me over, and my nickname was Frito, and he goes, “Frito, did he get you?”
“No Jimy.”
“Alright, good try!”
I ended up hitting a one-hopper off Clemens’ glove that he probably should have fielded, and they gave me an infield hit. Trot hits the homer, so we go to the bottom of the ninth, I think we had a two-run lead and they scored a run. Then they had the tying run on third, groundball to me, and I’m getting ready to throw to first base, game over, and I look and Mike Stanley stepped on the base and slipped and was almost falling down. So, I double-clutched, and threw, and barely got, I think Paul O’Neill, by half a step. Joe Morgan was even commentating, I think it was an ESPN game or something, he commented about it. So the next day I talked to him about it and he said, “Oh, I didn’t realize that.” If I had thrown it, initially, it would have gone right by him.
Yankee Stadium– May 28 2000– Boston Red Sox second baseman Jeff Frye greets Trot Nixon at home after the right fielder slammed a two run homer in the ninth off NY Yankee pitcher Roger Clemens to win the game. Staff photo by Jim Mahoney
BSE: Any particular games from your playing career stand out?
Jeff Frye: The game where Darren Lewis and I hit back-to-back home runs in the ninth off Mike Trombley of the Twins in Fenway. He hit a home run to tie the game, then I hit a home run to walk-off the game. Two guys who aren’t known for hitting home runs. I remember the headline in the paper the next day; “Banjo Hitters Come Through for the Red Sox.”
In 2001 I hit for the cycle for the Blue Jays against the Rangers.
BSE: Second one in Toronto history.
Jeff Frye: Yeah, that was a little bit controversial because I could have had a double in my last at-bat but stopped at first. We were winning by nine runs in the eighth inning and I went up to Cito Gaston, who was our hitting coach, and said “what do I do here if I hit one into the corner, or the gap?” He said, “stop at first and tell them I told you to.” As I hit the ball I was so nervous. It was a really frustrating year for me, but to have the opportunity to hit for the cycle. I was always the guy who was unselfish, would move runners over and things like that. I finally had the chance in my career to do something a little bit selfish, instead of getting a double I stopped at first, man I got a lot of flak for it. The manager of the Rangers commented on it, and Tim Kurkjian.
BSE: I mean, it wasn’t a close game, what did they care?
Jeff Frye: Yeah, that’s kind of how I felt. Plus, I’d already asked Cito! Cito had already won four pennants as manager of the Blue Jays and two World Series, so.
BSE: I think the first base coach was yelling at you to stop too, right?
Jeff Frye: Yeah, Garth Iorg. I was screaming as I rounded first, “what do I do? What do I do?” And he goes, “stay here! Stay here!” So, I took a big turn and went back to first. Kelly Gruber walked onto the field, man it was a cool feeling.
Kelly Gruber, left, hugs Blue Jays’ Jeff Frye after he cycled with a single against the Texas Rangers in Toronto August 17, 2001. Gruber was the first Blue Jay to cycle twelve years ago. (Photo by Vince Talotta/Toronto Star via Getty Images)
BSE: Was that your proudest accomplishment?
Jeff Frye: Yeah. I mean, I do remember a couple games in Boston when I first went there. I made an error on a routine groundball when Clemens was pitching. Man, the crowd was all over me and were yelling to go back to Texas. Not too long after that I had a game where I was 4-4 and I’d lined out my fifth at-bat and I got a standing ovation. One time Jimy Williams pinch-hit me for Trot Nixon. I was like, “man Jimy, are you sure?” They announced me in Boston, “now batting for Trot Nixon, Jeff Frye,” and the whole stadium booed. So, I’m walking to home plate, and I’m not happy, so I take my helmet off and tip it to the crowd as I’m walking to home plate. I got a base hit and got to first base and I tipped my hat to the crowd. I ended up scoring a run, and then I came up later in the game and hit a two-RBI double off the wall and they loved me.
BSE: Nowadays you are an agent for some of the ballplayers?
Jeff Frye: Yeah, I’ve been an agent for 17 years.
BSE: Wow, that’s a long time. You think your playing days helped in this position?
Jeff Frye: Yeah, definitely. A lot of stuff I do is amateur recruiting, so if I go in and talk to the family about their son, I can basically tell them everything their son is going to experience, I’ve already experienced. Not many other agents can make that claim.
BSE: With the way free agency has gone the past couple years, what are your thoughts on that? Do you think it needs any fixing?
Jeff Frye: Absolutely, something’s going on. Now that Bryce [Harper] and Manny [Machado] have signed it’s like everything is back to normal, but we still have so many great players who haven’t signed. We have difference makers who don’t have jobs and spring training is already going on. This has been a couple years running now. I don’t want to say there’s collusion, but I saw a story about Mark Reynolds, he didn’t have any offers from anybody, then one day within like an hour he had a call from four different teams and the same offer from every team.
BSE: That’s pretty fishy.
Jeff Frye: Yeah, something’s going on. I’m kind of fearful of what we’re facing in a couple years with the player’s and the commissioner’s office.
BSE: Any thoughts on some of the new rules in the game? The change of pace?
Jeff Frye: Yeah, I’m not a fan of that at all. I don’t think the pace of play is why people aren’t watching baseball. I had a hard time watching the playoffs last year, it’s boring with everyone striking out, walking or swinging for the fences. They aren’t cutting down on their swings with two strikes. The Red Sox weren’t that way last year and look what happened; I think Cora did a great job. I don’t think we can look at all these stats, launch angle and exit velocity and things, and measure how valuable a player is. I would have never had a chance, my exit velocity and launch angle wouldn’t even register. I was told to hit the ball on the ground. Nowadays you’re not supposed to hit the ball on the ground….You know last year was the first year in the history of baseball where there were more strike outs than hits? And the shift; they’re talking about eliminating the shift or limiting shifts. Well, if you see four guys on the right side of the infield, hit the ball the other way! Why cater to the guys who can’t make adjustments? He can’t hit the ball the other way so let’s change the rules so it benefits him. Well, that’s not how it’s supposed to work.
BSE: So, you mentioned you’re not a fan of the stats, so called stats, they use nowadays.
Jeff Frye: No, not at all; that’s an understatement. I go round and round with Brian Kenny. I haven’t delved too deep into what stats are put into WAR, but I’m pretty sure if I’m up with a runner on second and move the runner over to third, I don’t get much credit for that. If the next guy hits a groundball to second and gets an RBI, that’s because I helped him get that RBI. I should be credited in some fashion, it’s all about winning.
BSE: Yeah, it was designed initially to just be a tool to help determine how good someone was, not be an and-all-be-all. The problem is, some guys now treat it like gospel, if one guy has a higher WAR than another it automatically means he’s a better player. That’s the big problem with it.
Jeff Frye: Yeah, I remember Tim Naehring said to me one time, way back in the day, the three most important stats are hits, runs and RBI, and the best players in the game average more than two per game. So, any combination of hits, runs or RBI over the course of the season, and if you look at the numbers at the end of the year, the guys who are the best players at the end of the year have the highest percentage.
BSE: I remember a few years ago I was watching MLB Network, and two of the guys were having a big conversation about WAR while John Smoltz just stood there quietly. Right before commercial Smoltz slides in, “Jason Heyward has a higher WAR than Giancarlo Stanton, that’s all you need to know about WAR.” It was perfect, just casually makes a short statement that exemplified a part of the problem.
Jeff Frye: I watch that all the time too, he’s my favorite; he and Billy Ripken, neither one buys into that. Look at the contract the WAR stat got Jason Heyward, and how has that paid off? Immediately it was bad.
BSE: I don’t know if it was the year before he was a free agent, but Heyward hit maybe .276 with 13 homers and was a top 10 player in all of baseball according to WAR. (He hit .293 with 13 HR in 2015).
Jeff Frye: Yeah, because his defensive stats were so great.
BSE: Yeah, which is important, but how does it make you better than someone hitting .310 with 35 homers or something?
Jeff Frye: Yeah, well obviously it doesn’t because look at what’s happened since he signed.
BSE: One last thing, you’re doing some pre and postgame work for the Rangers, correct?
Jeff Frye: Yeah, I started last year on Fox Sports Southwest and I did like 17 games I think last year. I’m scheduled to do, I don’t know how many this year, but that’s been a lot of fun.
BSE: Well, that’s all the questions I have for you, anything you’d like to add?
Jeff Frye: Still a Red Sox fan, happy they won they won the World Series. I’ve reached out to the Red Sox because I’d…like to do their fantasy camp, I thought that’d be cool to get to see some of my old buddies, so maybe down the road I’ll get to do that.
BSE: Well, I appreciate you taking the time to talk with me today.
Jeff Frye: Yeah, no problem man.
Featured picture (Photo by Sporting News via Getty Images)
The 2018 season is now just a few weeks away, and expectations are mounting once again for the Boston Red Sox. As the defending World Series Champions, a lot is once again expected from a team which is used to playing under pressure. With the powerful New York Yankees once again expected to provide the main threat in the division, the Red Sox will need contributions from the entire roster. However, they need their star players to lead from the front. Last week we looked at what we might expect from J.D. Martinez. This week it is the turn of star center fielder Mookie Betts.
The 2017 or 2018 Version?
If you take a look at the last two years of Betts’ career then you may come away with mixed feelings. After a strong 2016, in which Betts hit 31 home runs with a .318 batting average, 2017 was somewhat underwhelming. In 712 plate appearances Betts managed just 24 home runs and a career low .264 batting average. However, 2018 took things to a new level entirely. Betts finished last season with 32 home runs and a .346 batting average in 614 plate appearances. If you look at the balance of his career, then 2017 is the outlier.
One thing that has been consistent has been his ability to steal bases. The last three years have seen Betts average 27.3 stolen bases. Getting to 30 again in 2019 might be a push, but somewhere between 25 & 30 feels like a safe bet.
The Change in Approach
There is no other way to phrase it that Betts hit the crap out of the ball in 2018. Having never had an average exit velocity above 90 mph, Betts averaged a whopping 92.3 in 2018. Part of that is down to just how cleanly he hit the ball. Prior to last season, Betts averaged a Barrel % of around 5%. Last season that was an incredible 14.1%, the 16th best mark in the majors. If we look at his barrels compared to plate appearances he ranks as high as joint 4th (9.9%). Combine that with a nearly four degree increase in launch angle and the career best HR/PA rate of 5.2% makes a lot of sense.
That increase in exit velocity also explains why we saw a career high batting average. When you hit the ball that hard and that cleanly you are always going to have a chance to have a good batting average. However, expecting another .340 performance might be a stretch. Last season Betts expected batting average was back down at .311. That was second best in the league, behind just Christian Yelich, but it is a long way from that .346 number. In fact Betts had the 20th biggest difference in the between his expected and actual batting average. That kind of separation is unlikely to be sustainable.
One Dimensional?
There is no denying that Betts is a great all around player. However, there is some fear that his hitting has become a little predictable. 2018 saw Betts hit the lowest percentage of balls in his career to the opposite field (18%). Correspondingly, it also saw him get shifted again the most times in his career. In 2018 Betts saw as many plate appearances against the shift as he had in the rest of his career combined. Additionally, nearly 75% of those came in the last three and a bit months of the season. It will be fascinating to see if that trend continues into 2019.
On the plus side, Betts hit the ball so well in 2018 that he actually had a .375 batting average against the shift. However, if some of that exit velocity drops off then Betts could be a victim of the shift next season. Hopefully, both Betts and the Red Sox are aware of the situation and can adjust accordingly if an issue starts to arise.
The Final Expectations
Taking a look at the various different projections available for Betts on Fangraphs a clear patter begins to emerge. The general expectations are around 30 home runs, 25-30 stolen bases, a .300-.310 batting average and at least a combined 200 runs and RBI. They may not be quite as good as 2018, but they are more than good enough from one of your two marquee hitters.
Featured photo courtesy ofDavid Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
