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Hot Date in Houston for the Sox

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Red Sox seek redemption in the 2017 ALDS

Well the Sox just ended the regular season with a four-game series against the Houston Astros. Houston grabbed three of four from the Sox in Fenway. Now, starting Thursday at 4 pm ET, these two clubs meet again for at least three more contests in the ALDS. The Astros won this years season series 4-3 and outscored Boston 35-22 in those seven games. Houston may appear to have an edge, but we all know the MLB playoffs are a crap-shoot.

Houston certainly has the better offense, ranking first in the AL in runs scored with 896. Boston scored 785, not nearly as many as Houston, but still good for sixth in the AL. The Red Sox pitching staff has an edge over Houston with the team ERA for the year standing at 3.70. Houston’s team ERA stands significantly higher at 4.12. While both teams have similarly talented starting rotations, the pitching advantage for Boston comes from their phenomenal bullpen. The Sox ranked 2nd in the majors this year with a 3.15 bullpen ERA. Houston’s bullpen was far worse, with a 4.27 ERA which ranked them 17th in the majors.

ALDS Game 1- Sale vs Verlander

Image result for chris sale

Mouths water over this exquisite pitching match up. Sale and Verlander are undoubtedly two of the very best pitchers in baseball. Sale has the better ERA (2.90) but Verlander comes into the playoffs as one of the hottest pitchers in baseball. The Sox lefty threw an MLB-leading 214.1 innings this year. Verlander racked up the innings as well with 206. It appears Verlander may have handled the physical stress a little better, as his performance improved as the season went on. For Sale, it was the opposite.  He seemed unhittable until the end of the season when his numbers started to fall off. Sale’s ERA over the last month of the season was 3.72, not great for his standards, but still pretty solid. He was under a lot of scrutiny for his poor performance but he actually allowed 0 ER in three of his final six starts. As I mentioned, Sale lead the entire league in innings pitched.  So his poor late-season numbers were likely a result of fatigue. He last pitched on September 26th, so he should be plenty rested come Thursday’s series opener.

Verlander Finishes Strong

Verlander also put together an exceptional year, but very unlike Sale’s season. Houston’s new ace had a rough start to the season with a pre-all star break ERA an uncharacteristic 4.73. This may have had something to do with being on one of the worst teams in baseball (Detroit Tigers). As expected, Verlander was much improved in the second half, posting a 1.95 ERA after the All Star break. He was especially exceptional in the last month of the season, earning five quality starts in as many tries and posted a 1.06 ERA to go along with a 0.65 WHIP. Verlander’s main advantage in this match up is experience.  He has 16 career post season starts and Sale has none. Verlander is 7-5 with a with a 3.39 ERA in his post season career. expect game one to be a low scoring affair despite the high powered offenses.

ALDS Game 2- Pomeranz vs Keuchel

 

Image result for dallas keuchel stats

Another great pitching match up here in game two. Many teams around the league would love to have Pomeranz or Keuchel serving as a backup to their ace. Pomeranz has put together a career year posting a 3.32 ERA on the season. A reason for concern for the Sox is that the Astros Lineup is stacked full of great right handed hitters. Houston’s lineup features the league batting title champ (Jose Altuve), Carlos Correa, George Springer, Alex Bregman and Yuliesky Gurriel, all righ- handed batters. However, Pomeranz has handled them well this year. In two starts Pomeranz has thrown 12.1 innings while allowing just seven hits and two ER. Houston batters are hitting only .245 with just eight extra base hits in 102 at bats vs Drew. Boston will need this display of dominance from Drew if they want the win.

Like Sale, Keuchel was scorching hot to start the season, going 9-0 with a 1.67 ERA. Unfortunately for Houston, Keuchel found himself on the DL in June due to a neck injury. He returned in July and struggled mightily, posting a 5.05 ERA in six starts. However, Keuchel did seem to find his groove in August as he went 3-2 with a 2.87 ERA. The bearded lefty seems healthy and locked in as we enter the ALDS. Prepare for another low scoring game in game two.

 

ALDS Game 3- Morton vs Porcello?

Image result for rick porcello

 

The official pitching match ups have not been posted but this is who I imagine game three will feature. The third post-season starter position for the Red Sox is up for grabs between Doug Fister, Eduardo Rodriguez and Rick Porcello. I believe Porcello is the best option, despite having a disappointing year after winning the 2016 AL CY Young. I am ruling Doug Fister out of the equation due to a horrific final month which he had an ERA of 6.85. While E-Rod has slightly better numbers than Porcello this year, the difference is not enough to overcome his lack of experience. Porcello has certainly not lived up to expectations, but his numbers are skewed by some really poor starts. The quality starts are still there, but the bad ones have just been really bad. Rick has thrown at least 6 innings in 26 of his 33 starts. He has allowed three ER or fewer in 19 starts this year and even has two complete games. If the good version of Porcello shows up for the Red Sox then they have a clear advantage here in game three. Veteran Charlie Morton has put together a career year for Houston in his 10th year in the league. Morton has won 14 games and has an ERA of 3.62. I am leaning towards Houston electing Morton due to his impressive final month which he posted an ERA of 2.54 in 28.1 innings of work. This match up will really come down to Porcello pitching to his potential and keeping his sinker down in the zone.

*Follow me on twitter @MLBfromNH (Kevin Civiello)*

 

A Quick Analysis of the Patriots’ Week 5 Match-Up Against the Buccaneers

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A short week of preparation for the Patriots after suffering an unexpected loss at home against the Carolina Panthers Sunday. A defensive breakdown by the Patriots caused a full-blown shootout between Cam Newton and Tom Brady. And it just so happened that the Panthers’ defense showed more resiliency.

There’s no doubt that the Patriots’ coaching staff this week focused solely on improving the defensive game plan. Currently, this season’s Patriots defense ranks as one of the worst since 2006. On average, in the past ten seasons the Patriots have ranked third in the league in touchdowns allowed per drive, out of every drive they have allowed six points 17% of the time. In the past four weeks that statistic for this year’s defense skyrocketed to 31.1%, ranked worst in the league. So far on goal-to-go situations this season the opposing team has scored 100% of the time, being ranked 30th in the league. Though it is early in the season, the Patriots’ defense is statistically slipping already.

Source: ESPN Stats & Information Group

 

This week the Patriots are tasked with another rare opponent, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. A Thursday night match-up in Tampa will be more difficult for the Patriots to prepare for than the Bucs. This will be New  England’s third NFC South match-up out of four still early in the season, and have had no trouble against the Buccaneers in the past. However, the Patriots and Bucs have not met in the past four years. Since then the Buccaneers have made a great addition with Jameis Winston. Luckily for the Patriots, the Buccaneers are one of the seven teams Tom Brady is undefeated against in his career.

Stopping the Buccaneers on Offense

Unlike any team the Patriots have faced so far this season, the Buccaneers boast a two tight end set on offense. Tight ends Cameron Brate and rookie O.J. Howard share playing time with either one blocking with the offensive line or both running routes over the middle of the field. Just last week when the Buccaneers squared up against the New York Giants, O.J. Howard burned the defense on a simple bootleg play-action pass because the corners were fixated on Brate and receiver Chris Godwin running the opposite way.

 

In addition to this set, the Buccaneers offense possesses a huge vertical threat in Mike Evans and speedy route-runner and returner DeSean Jackson. Rookie Chris Godwin is up-and-coming as well. At running back, the Bucs have Doug Martin, who in the past has ripped up defensive lines for huge gains. Jameis Winston is the perfect guy to sling the ball them. He has a cannon of an arm and in recent years has become more accurate. The Patriots’ defensive line will get a break this week when it comes to rushing the QB because Winstson does not scramble that often.

The most feasible way for the Patriots to stop this top-10 offense is to help each other as much as possible. Zone coverage and conservative play calling will help against the pass. Stephon Gilmore has struggled so far making mental errors, including one that cost the Patriots the game last week. If he continues to play as the team’s number-two corner, he should have someone helping in the backfield to reduce the field for him. Patrick Chung would capitalize on coverage like that and could force some turnovers. Dont’a Hightower will have to come up big on coverage in the middle of the field. Devin McCourty will have to hold down the top of the zone as well if Chung drops down.

Getting the Patriots Offense Going

Tom Brady has kept the Patriots’ offense alive, despite all the injuries plaguing his receivers. He has picked up his tempo and slinging the ball more, but there is only so much that he can do individually. Chris Hogan and Brandin Cooks have been lighting up secondaries and finding the end zone without much adversity. Danny Amendola has successfully has been filling Julian Edelman’s slot-reciever role in his absence. With Rob Gronkowski the newest entry on the injury report, and Rex Burkhead continuing to be out this week, the Patriots will bring the next man up. Vernon Hargreaves and Brent Grimes will be tough to get catches over. However, Brandin Cooks has the capacity to out-speed Grimes win in a jump ball situation against Hargreaves. This leaves the middle passing game open for Danny Amendola to get open.

In the backfield, Mike Gillislee and Dion Lewis have shared reps on the team’s dismal running game. James White has gotten few targets in the backfield as well, which could be used against the Buccaneers defense. Linebacker Lavonte David is the only factor to interfere against a halfback screen. Expect this game to continue the trend of being pass-heavy for the Patriots.

Astros-Red Sox Positional Breakdown

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On Thursday the Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox will start the best-of-five ALDS series. These two teams closed their regular seasons facing each other, so they had plenty of time to get acquainted. This series means a little more of course, and the two teams will pull out all stops to try and advance. Which team has the advantage at each position?

Starting Pitching

Justin Verlander

Justin Verlander #35 of the Houston Astros throws against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Park in Arlington on September 27, 2017 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

The Astros’ trade for Justin Verlander right before the waiver deadline has shored up their rotation. After a sub .500 month of August, people doubted the Astros’ legitimacy as a World Series contender. Behind Dallas Keuchel, their rotation had question marks. Lance McCullers got hurt after a hot start and hadn’t been pitching well since. Then Verlander arrived. Verlander went 5-0 with a 1.06 ERA for the Astros and they bounced back to go 21-8 from there on out. With Verlander and Keuchel at the front, the Astros have two aces. McCullers has been struggling, but Brad Peacock has had an excellent season for them, winning 13 games with an ERA of 3.00 and 11 strikeouts per nine. He would seem to be a fine option to slot in at number three.

The Red Sox have a Cy Young candidate in Chris Sale at the top. Following him is Drew Pomeranz, who somewhat quietly has put himself in a position for a potential top five finish in the Cy Young vote himself. Beyond that, though, the Red Sox have many questions. No one is quite sure yet who will be their #3 or 4 starters, and none of the options are altogether appealing.

Advantage: Astros

Bullpen

The Astros are strong at the back end of their bullpen, but if forced to dip into the pen earlier in games they could face issues. Closer Ken Giles is excellent, and Chris Devenski had a heck of a year for them striking out 100 batters. Will Harris is another excellent reliever for them, posting an ERA under 3.00 for the third consecutive season. No one else is reliable though. Their next best reliever, Luke Gregerson, had an ERA of 4.57.

The Red Sox bullpen is strong, and rather deep with options. It features Craig Kimbrel, possibly the best closer in the game. Kimbrel struck out 126 of 254 batters faced this season! He’ll be setup by Addison Reed, and possibly Joe Kelly and Carson Smith. Those are some solid pitchers, maybe not quite as good as the Astros setup men, but good. After that, the Red Sox depth shows much better. They have many quality options for relievers to make the roster, unlike the Astros whose fourth best wouldn’t make the Red Sox roster.

Advantage: Red Sox

Craig Kimbrel

Craig Kimbrel #46 of the Boston Red Sox reacts after beating the Houston Astros and winning the AL East Division at Fenway Park on September 30, 2017 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Omar Rawlings/Getty Images)

Catcher

The two teams differ quite a bit at catcher. The Astros will pretty much just feature Brian McCann, while the Red Sox have two catchers in Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon who should both get playing time. McCann is a low-batting-average hitter with good pop, whereas the Sox have Vazquez who batted .290 but with just five home runs. On the defensive side they are even more different. McCann is one of the worst defensive catchers in the league,  who only threw out eight of 62 would-be base stealers. That 13% caught stealing rate pales in comparison to Christian Vazquez’ 42% and Sandy Leon’s 37% clip. Vazquez and Leon combined to throw out 39 base runners.

Advantage: Red Sox

First Base

The Astros have highly touted Cuban import Yuli Gurriel playing first. Gurriel had a nice first full season in the Majors, batting .299 with 18 homers and 43 doubles. He actually batted over .300 in every month except for May.

The Red Sox’ Mitch Moreland batted only .246, but thanks to his ability to draw walks, his .326 on base percentage is actually only six points behind Gurriel’s. He out- homered Gurriel 22-18, but his slugging percentage still lags behind. Moreland is probably better with the glove, having committed just five errors after winning the Gold Glove last season, but it’s not enough to make up the difference.

Advantage: Astros

Second Base

Altuve

Jose Altuve #27 of the Houston Astros bats during a game against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on September 13, 2017 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

Dustin Pedroia is a high contact, good average hitter who is also an excellent defender. As much as I love Pedey, this is no contest.

Jose Altuve led the league with 204 base hits, becoming the first player ever to lead his league in hits in four straight seasons, collecting 200+ in each of them. Altuve came in third in the MVP vote a year ago and has a strong case for winning it this season. He led the league in hitting with a .346 average, while also popping 24 homers despite being 5’6″. Oh, he also stole 32 bases and missed reaching 40 doubles for the fourth consecutive year by just one double. He is one of the absolute best players in the league.

Advantage: Astros

Third Base

This is a fascinating match up. Both teams have a very good, young player at the position. Alex Bregman was the second overall pick in the 2015 draft and made the Majors by the next year. This year he batted .284 with 19 home runs and an .827 OPS.

Red Sox Rafael Devers has long been considered one of the highest upside players in the minor leagues, and he’s still only 20! In 58 games Devers matched Bregman’s .284 batting average while cracking 10 homers and posting an .819 OPS. Their numbers are almost identical and both are very highly touted.

Advantage: Push

Shortstop

Carlos Correa had been a fine shortstop his first two years, winning Rookie of the Year in 2015 and hitting 20 homers in both seasons. He took a step forward this year though, showing he could contend for best shortstop in baseball for many years to come. Correa batted .315 with an excellent .941 OPS this season.

As for the Red Sox, they have a very talented shortstop in Xander Bogaerts, but one who is maddeningly inconsistent. Bogaerts had a fantastic first half last season, only to fall way off in the second half. This year he again started hot before cooling off. At seasons end he had only batted .273 with 10 home runs while also making numerous baserunning mistakes. This is no contest.

Advantage: Astros

Left Field

The Astros have a variety of guys they play here, and Marwin Gonzalez may be the one they use. He has played all over however, and like Eduardo Nunez for the Sox, could be used in a variety of places. Cameron Maybin was aquired from the Angels to play outfield. He is adept at stealing bases, but his hitting prowess leaves something to be desired.

The Sox have a rookie to get excited about for years to come in Benny Biceps. He might not be as good now as he will be, but he is still a very good player already. Benintendi hit 20 home runs and stole 20 bases this season, the first rookie left fielder to accomplish that since Barry Bonds 30 years ago.

Advantage: Red Sox

Center Field

The Red Sox will usually have the advantage in the field here. Jackie Bradley is a wonderful defensive outfielder, routinely making spectacular throws and catches. He isn’t bad with the bat either, a bit inconsistent, but he gets the job done.

The Astros though have George Springer, a guy who hit 34 home runs this year. Springer also batted .283, showing he isn’t just a power hitter. His .889 OPS dwarfs Bradley’s .726 mark.

Advantage: Astros

Right Field

The Astros play former Red Sox Josh Reddick in right field, and he actually had one of his best seasons. Somehow, Josh Reddick batted .314 this year; not sure where that came from. Despite a down year from Mookie Betts, this isn’t really a contest. Betts almost won the MVP last year and is a very good fielder to boot. He hit 46 doubles this year and drove in 102 runners. His season may have left a bit to be desired, but the talent difference between these two is rather large.

Advantage: Red Sox

Mookie

Mookie Betts #30 of the Boston Red Sox reacts as he rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run during the seventh inning of a game against the Houston Astros on September 30, 2017 at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images)

Designated Hitter

Hanley Ramirez had a very disappointing follow up to his 2016 campaign, reverting back to the guy we saw in 2015 who swings wildly for the fences in every at bat. He only hit .242 and killed many rallies. He did manage to hit 23 home runs though, which is more than we can say for the Astros’ Carlos Beltran. Beltran, showing all of his 40 years, batted just .231 with 14 home runs and a devilish .666 OPS.

Advantage: Red Sox

Utility

I’m making a utility spot for the aforementioned Marwin Gonzalez and Eduardo Nunez. Both will probably play in more games than they won’t…if Nunez is healthy that is. Marwin Gonzalez had an out-of-nowhere breakout season. He batted .303 with 23 homers and 90 RBI this season, by far his best season to date. Nunez really helped kick start the Red Sox lineup after being acquired from the Giants, batting .321 with 8 home runs and a near .900 OPS for the Red Sox. Nunez’ Red Sox numbers extrapolated over a season would be similar to what Gonzalez has done, but is he healthy?

Slight Advantage: Astros

Final Analysis

So the final breakdown totals come to five advantages for the Astros, five advantages for the Red Sox, and two pushes. These teams are looking pretty even when it comes to which team has the advantage at each position. The Astros did win 99 games to the Red Sox 93 and finished the year stronger. They also have home field, so the overall advantage would have to go slightly to them, but this could be a good ALDS matchup. Sit back, watch, and hopefully enjoy.

 

Catching Up with Former Red Sox’s Reggie Jefferson

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The other day I had the privilege of speaking with former Red Sox player Reggie Jefferson. Reggie played parts of nine seasons in the big leagues, the final five of which were spent with the Red Sox. He batted .300 for his career, a rare accomplishment in the grand scheme of baseball history. I spoke with him about his playing days, the way the game has changed and what he is doing nowadays.

The Early Years

Reggie’s career began in Cincinnati before quickly moving cross state to the Cleveland Indians. In Cleveland he wore number 44 in honor of Hank Aaron.  Eventually, he would settle on number 18 for most of his career to honor a friend back home who had become like a big brother to him.

Reggie was traded from Cleveland after the 1993 season in a deal that would net the Indians Omar Vizquel, a man I think should be making the Hall of Fame in the coming years. Reggie said when he runs into Cleveland fans he tells them they should love him because he helped bring the club Omar Vizquel. Vizquel, one of the all-time greats defensively at short, blossomed as a hitter for the Indians. Meanwhile, Reggie viewed this as a chance for more playing time. The move also reunited him with Manager Lou Piniella, who he had been with in Cincinnati. As he pointed out, Seattle had Alex Rodriguez coming up through the minors and viewed Vizquel as being expendable. But Piniella must have liked what he had seen from his one-time rookie.

Hitting Stride

Jefferson’s breakout started that season in Seattle. He batted .327 with an excellent .935 OPS before the strike hit. He credits Lou Piniella a lot for his newfound success at the plate. Piniella helped him make changes at the plate; adjust his hands to help put him in a better position to get hits.

That season Reggie abandoned switch hitting. He had switch hit through the minors with good success, hitting for similar averages from both sides of the plate but with more power from his natural left side. However, in the Bigs there were always good right-handed options on the bench. With limited at-bats from the right side, Reggie had a hard time finding a groove. Without finding a rhythm from that side of the plate, his swing became long and he felt like he gave away at-bats. Despite the advice from Eddie Murray to not give up switch-hitting, Reggie would not get the reps needed from the right side to succeed so he made the decision. He says “I think if given the chance to play every day, I think I could have hit.”

Boston

In 1995, Reggie’s agents let him know that the Red Sox signaled the most interest. Reggie was thinking, “What are they doing? They have Mo (Vaughn) and Jose (Canseco)”! The Red Sox didn’t seem to have a spot for another first baseman and designated hitter such as Jefferson. When asked if he felt like he just needed an opportunity to play and prove himself, Reggie said “definitely, that’s it. I tell clients, first need an opportunity, then need to take advantage of it.” When the opportunities came, Reggie didn’t miss them.

Manager Kevin Kennedy was happy to greet the newest arrival in camp, Reggie Jefferson. (Photo by Barry Chin/The Boston Globe via Getty Images)

In 1996, Jefferson had his finest season. He got to play for the injured Jose Canseco for a while, then after Jose came back the Red Sox left fielder Mike Greenwell went down. Since Reggie had been hitting so well, Manager Kevin Kennedy wanted to find a way to keep his bat in the lineup. Kennedy went to Jefferson and asked him if he’d ever played left before. Reggie lied. He told Kennedy he had, despite never before playing there. It worked out great for both parties, the Red Sox came storming back with a strong second half and Reggie finished with a .347 batting average, the fifth-highest mark in all of baseball. When asked about that season in particular, Reggie said he just felt good all year. He swung the bat great, felt comfortable at the plate and hit the ball hard.

Starting with that season, Jefferson became a fixture in the Red Sox lineup for several seasons against right handers. He’d bat over .300 in three consecutive seasons and batted .316 as a Red Sox. He was a career .345 hitter at Fenway Park with a .928 OPS. He says Fenway “just played into [his] natural strengths. The Monster rewards hitters for going the other way and there’s lots of room in right.” This fit Reggie perfectly as he just hit the ball wherever it came in over the plate, using the entire field.

Friendly Fenway

Another aspect of Fenway Park we discussed is the atmosphere. According to Reggie, the Sox have the greatest fans in the world, not only in the support shown at the park, but in the way we follow the game. Fans in Boston have a knowledge of what’s happening with the team on a day-to-day basis. He found himself cheering hard for the Sox in 2004 when they finally won the World Series. Reggie identifies more with the Red Sox than any other team because of the fans. He says there were always high expectations playing in Boston, but that he performed well. Although a bad back that first cropped up in 1990 slowed him down in 1995 and 1998, he “didn’t leave anything on the table.” He always gave it his all and performed at a high level.

I asked Reggie which game, if any, stood out in his memory. He instantly brought up a game played on Father’s Day in 1996. As he said, the Red Sox had been winning but then gave up the lead. After Mo Vaughn and Jose Canseco picked up their fourth hits of the game to begin the 9th inning, Reggie came to the plate. The Sox were trailing by two, two men on, no one out. Facing Mike Henneman, Reggie hit a line drive to the opposite field up over the Monster and into the screen. A walk-off home run in Fenway Park, and on Father’s Day to boot. Reggie was thinking of his Dad and how he had gotten him started in the game of baseball.

Reggie also brought up playing with greats like Pedro Martinez, Roger Clemens and Mo Vaughn. He referenced Pedro’s 17 strike out, one-hit gem at Yankee Stadium. Reggie left the park that night thinking “that’s the best game I’ve ever seen pitched.” He thinks it’s pretty cool nowadays when guys like Tim Kurkjian bring up that game as possibly being the greatest pitching performance ever.

Modern Baseball

We talked some about recent rule changes to the game of baseball and whether they improve the game.  He does believe the rules protecting players from injury top the list.  No need exists for someone to get injured on a take-out slide at second or a catcher run over at the plate. Eliminating those plays and keeping players on the field are for the best. However, he does not like the rules trying to speed up the game; “Baseball is a slow game, I don’t think going to change that much. It’s going to take 2.5-3.5 hours to play.”

As for all the home runs hit this year, we had a discussion about that. Reggie believes there is something up with the balls. Going to games at Tropicana Field, which has been known as a pitcher’s park in the past, he sees balls flying out this year. He says “some balls are getting way out that back in the day wouldn’t even get out [at all]. I see balls there I’m like, how did that get out?!” I’ve been thinking the same thing, Reggie. Balls are just flying out with too much ease. It’s not normal. He says some of it is bad pitching, guys missing their spots, but the balls must be different.

Reggie thinks plays like this, where he is about to run over Joe Girardi trying to score, are not necessary in the game.

Reynolds Sports Agency

We finished up talking about what he is up to nowadays. Reggie works for Reynolds Sports Agency, representing clients in professional baseball. It’s a more tightly knit group than some other agencies, and despite being all under one umbrella, he says you definitely get to forge relationships.

Reggie is excited for the future; they represent a left-handed reliever in Atlanta, Sam Freeman, enjoying a breakout year. Reggie says he has learned to harness his stuff and is having a terrific season. He brought up Keon Broxton and Mallex Smith as two young players on the verge of becoming household names. Reggie has known both of them since the 11th grade, illustrating the point about forging relationships. Another young guy he mentioned was Andrew Toles, who has been out almost the whole season with a torn ACL. Reggie says he’s a great hitter and will show that in the future.

The agencies biggest star is Justin Upton, who still has four years and $88.5M left on a six-year contract. However, rumors claim  he might choose to opt out of the contract, as is his right after the season. Despite the rumors, Reggie denies talks about it, let alone making a decision. Justin is focusing on trying to get the Angels into the playoffs. If he does opt out, he’s having a huge year at the right time, bashing 35 homers.

Final Thoughts

I asked Reggie if his playing days help him out in his career as a sports agent. Reggie said, “Without a doubt. I know what they’re going through, I can be in their mindset.” He tells them one day they are going to get their shot, and they have got to run with it. He says at times during his own career he felt the need to talk to someone who had been there. Now, he can give that needed counsel to his clients. The job is a lot of work, keeping his plate full and requiring him to travel a lot. Reggie enjoys it though, he gets to help guys out who are just getting started in their professional careers.

A Quick Analysis of the Patriots’ Week 4 Match-Up Against the Panthers

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A once-in-a-blue-moon meeting for the Patriots to prepare for this weekend. The Patriots will face the Carolina Panthers, a team they have not played in the regular season since 2013. After a Monday Night Football game in week eleven of that season, the Panthers came out on top in the waning minutes of the match to win 24-20. The game finished with controversy over the referees picking up a penalty flag for defensive pass interference on the last play of the game where Tom Brady took a shot in the end zone to Rob Gronkowski.

Since 2013 the Patriots and the Panthers have been present in a Super Bowl: the Patriots winning two and the Panthers appearing in one. The Panthers have had both successful and unfortunate seasons since this season but have learned from their mistakes. Both teams are very different from four years ago, however Tom Brady and Cam Newton still reign.

Stopping the Panthers’ West Coast Offense

Cam Newton is one of the more popular quarterbacks in the NFL, mostly because of his impressive mobility. He can turn on the burners in an instant and run with the ball himself on a split second decision. At the same time he possesses the arm strength to heave the ball downfield. The Patriots had a similar task last weekend against rookie Deshaun Watson whose pocket presence and speed kept defenders from containing him.

Cam Newton might be quicker than Watson, but the Patriots’ defense should be working on pressuring the quarterback more in this week’s practice. Heavily relying on zone coverage will not fair well against Cam Newton and his strong running back corp. Jonathan Stewart is a well-used power runner who is deadly on screens in the back field. A similar principle goes for rookie Christian McCaffrey, a quick runner and can punish on running an angle or wheel route.  To stop Cam Newton, man coverage QB containment and a few crafty blitzes will come in handy. As for the Panthers’ backs, that’s when cover 3 should be used. Dont’a Hightower, pending if he returns this week from injury, will have a big task covering Stewart and McCaffrey. Malcolm Butler will also have to size up 6’5″ wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin.

Rallying on Offense

The Panthers used to boast one of the stingiest secondaries in the league two years ago under Josh Norman. Lately, they have become more centralized on building up the defensive line along with the linebacker corp: Charles Johnson, Julius Peppers, Star Lotulelei, Kawann Short, Mario Addison, Shaq Thompson, Luke Kuechly, and Thomas Davis. All of these powerful defenders work together on the defensive line. To beat a stacked defensive line like that, Tom Brady will have to replicate his performance last week. It is imperative that he gets the ball off quickly on short routes to receivers. The Patriots’ offensive line faces an even bigger task. Coach Dante Scarnecchia this week has more than likely hammered on his offensive line after they allowed Tom Brady to be sacked multiple times.

Quick slants will help beat a defense that will be trying to capitalize on rushing Brady. Danny Amendola is a perfect receiver for short passes and Rob Gronkowski is always a vertical threat. Chris Hogan might have a mixed role this game where he will catch short passes but at the same time run deep like he has done in the past two games. If it ain’t broke don’t fix it.

TR

Final Roster Spot

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Final Roster Spot

The Celtics have a final roster spot, but Andrew Bogut won’t be the player to fill that spot.

According to multiple reports, both the Celtics and the Cavs were in on Bogut, but the 32-year old vet decided to take his talents to LA. Now with just three days until training camp, Dany may still be looking to add some more talent to the team.

Boris Diaw is heading to France, Tyler Zeller to the Nets, Crawford to Minnesota. The options the Celtics now have are limited, but some impactful players remain in the market.

THOMAS ROBINSON

Between the Kyrie trade madness, the Celtics conducted a work out with the big man.

But no news since.

The 6-10, listed at 237 lbs was drafted fifth overall in the 2012 NBA draft by the Kings, and played for six teams in the spam. Not ideal. But he´s only 26. Last season with the Lakers, in 48 games, he averaged 5.0 points, 4.6 rebounds, at just 11 mins per game.

But what could possibly attract Dany, is Robinson’s ability to rebound, and that’s an issue that keeps haunting the Celtics. Robinson has a impressive 25.5% defensive rebound percentage for his career. To put that in prospective, Kelly Olynyk lead the Celtics last year at 20.7%.

The only downside to Robinson is that he has not been sucked into the modern day NBA style. I refer to is his inability to stretch the floor. In the last couple seasons, Brad has relied heavily on bigs that can space the floor.

With the Lakers last season, Robinson shot 61.3% from the restricted area.

Via NBAsavant.com

GERALD GREEN

When Green is number two in this list, you know the market isn’t very big out there. But Gerald is a great locker presence, very important for a new team. And he helped turn the Bulls series around.

UPDATE: Green to sign with the Bucks.

DAVID LEE

This will not be a popular option for the fans after the disappointing stint with the Celtics back in 2015. Celtics fan were excited to add the former dominant double-double PF.  Lee played only 30 games with the Celtics before he was waived and picked up by the Mavericks.

Lee isn’t the same old Lee but he’s coming off a quiet, productive season with the mighty Spurs. In 18 minutes of action, the posted 7.3 points, 5.6 rebounds and 1.6 assists, and shot 59 percent from the field.  Lee turn down a $1.6 million option from the Spurs.

WHO ELSE?

Like mentioned before, the options are limited at this point of the off season. The chances are slim to find a player, whom will have any real impact on the team.

Notable free agent bigs still available: Lavoy Allen, Festus Ezeli and Jordan Hill.

 

Analysis of the Patriots’ Week 3 Match-Up Against the Texans

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A 2016-17 AFC Divisional rematch in Week 3 is quite an interesting pairing. In the past year the Houston Texans and Patriots have clashed on three separate occasions prior to Sunday. The Patriots won two of these games in this short series, but each victory has been on separate terms. In a 2016 Week 3 match-up Jacoby Brissett and LeGarrette Blount brought the Brady-less Patriots to a shutout victory. The Texans and Patriots squared up again in the Divisional Round of the 2016-17 playoffs, where Dion Lewis and Tom Brady were the offensive heroes that brought home a win. And this season the Patriots and Texans played in the preseason and Deshaun Watson secured a decisive win for the Texans.

This upcoming battle will showcase current CFB Playoff MVP Deshaun Watson against prevailing Super Bowl MVP Tom Brady. Watson became the starter for the Texans in the second half against the team’s loss against the Jaguars recently. Since then, Watson has racked up a modest 227 yards along with one touchdown and an interception. Texans Coach Bill O’Brien’s offensive game plan in the foreseeable future is to develop Watson as fast a possible. However, Coach Bill Belichick, a friend of O’Brien, is aware of that and will bring defensive pressure on Watson quickly.

Stopping the Texans’ Offense

The Texans run a balanced offense consisting of short and medium passes along with a few different types of run plays. Deshaun Watson is a west coast-schemed quarterback, meaning he likes to throw short slant, curl, and dig routes to receivers. At the same time, he has the skills to tuck and run with the football by himself, as advertised by him against the Patriots in the preseason. For a rookie, Watson has showcased some impressive pocket presence, and knows how to roll out of the pocket to keep the play alive rather than giving himself up for a sack.

Deshaun Watson is able to use an receiving corp that has undergone an overhaul to suit the team. The top receiver on the squad is DeAndre Hopkins, a deep threat who runs primarily fly and cross routes. Will Fuller V is the go-to guy when passing short or medium over the middle of the defense. Ryan Griffin, the team’s primary tight end, mostly pass blocks or runs short routes like a curl off the line. Lamar Miller, the workhorse of the offense, is a one-cut back who can punish the defense on a wheel route.

Expect Bill Belichick to stop the Texans’ offense at the source. The Patriots’ edge rushers and linebackers must step up this week to keep constant pressure on Deshaun Watson. Blitzes and quarterback contain plays will keep Watson in the pocket and make a naive mistake against the Patriots’ secondary.

Tackling the Texan’s Stingy Defense

The Patriots offense redeemed themselves last week against the New Orleans Saints after getting blasted by the Kansas City Chiefs in week one. However, the Saints defense statistically let up a lot of points, and in the last three years they are ranked 30th+ points allowed. The Texans’ defense is on the other end of the spectrum, ranking within the top-five defenses in the league. Stacked on the defensive line the Texans at full strength boast the talents of J.J. Watt, Whitney Mercilus, and Jadeveon Clowney. This defense makes up for a weak secondary by bringing constant pressure to the opposing quarterback and stopping the run.

With an ailing offense and now Chris Hogan and Danny Amendola being among the eleven players questionable to play this week, the offense needs to be cautious. Therefore screen passes to Mike Gillislee and James White will work like a charm. Rob Gronkowski and Dwayne Allen are both vertical threats that can shred up the Texans’ secondary. Tom Brady on average takes about 2.5 seconds to drop back and get the ball out of his hands. Statistics show as his career has progressed, Brady has become increasingly accurate after passing the ball that quickly. This skill will come in handy against an aggressive Texans’ defensive line. The pass rush will be frequent in this game for the Patriots offense. The offensive line and the rest of the offense can still shine if everyone does their job.

Bullish on the ‘pen

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Grudging Respect to the Skipper

Let’s be clear. Despite this, I do not think much of John Farrell as a manager. That said, however, he was a great pitching coach during Terry Francona’s tenure as skipper. It is not a coincidence that the Red Sox have one of the best rotations and have the best bullpen in baseball. Tough to argue with a 15-3 record in extra-inning games or find fault in the skipper who got them there.

Loaded for October

As great as we may feel about sweeping unlikeable Baltimore and clinching a playoff berth, the road ahead is going to be difficult. October baseball is different. There are no more Toronto’s, Oakland’s or Cincinnati’s. Everyone can play. Every line up is deep. Every rotation is tough. But, not every bullpen is great. Ours is, as Scott Frizzell expertly laid out yesterday (here).

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Sure, every one of the locked or likely AL playoff teams has a lights-out closer.  Giles (HOU), Kintzler (MIN), Allen (CLE), and, despite his struggles against Boston, Chapman (NYY) are all excellent. And they all have a decent set-up guys. But, in October starting pitchers face the deepest line-ups in the league and tend to have high pitch counts earlier. It’s not enough to have an eighth inning guy to bridge to your closer. You need a seventh inning stud. And often more.

With apologies to Velazquez, Maddox, Smith, and Elias who have all contributed but just barely, the nine core members of the Sox bullpen are the best in the AL. Kimbrel leads all AL playoff closers with 33 saves, with Houston’s Giles right behind him at 32.

Getting the ball to our ginger Travelocity gnome is a squad who’ve pitched over 350 innings, surrendered only 132 earned runs, struck out 345, and have a WHIP of 1.18. For perspective, Drew Pomeranz, 16-5 on the season, has a WHIP of 1.34. So, basically Boston’s bullpen is better than their number two starter. Not. Too. Shabby.

The Best We’ve Had

Boston’s current bullpen is the best we’ve had in decades. With the possible exception of ’07 Papelbon, nobody in their right mind would trade Kimbrell for any closer in recent Red Sox history. And, as much as the Timlin-Embree combination provided the ’04 world champions, the sheer depth of this year’s squad is unmatched.

None of this is to say that their success will continue in the post season. October baseball is different. Guys who were lights out in the regular season often fade as the innings pile up and as the teams get tougher. Hideki Okajima springs to mind.

In 2007, Oki had thrown 69 regular season innings – more than any of our current relievers – and registered a 2.22 ERA and 0.971 WHIP. He was the definition of shut-down. Yet, he threw 11 post-season innings, including 3.2 in the World Series, where his numbers skyrocketed (7.36 ERA).

As this season winds down, it is critical that Farrell manage innings for each of his arms. He should consider throwing Price as often as medically possible – to both get him in shape for important innings in October, and to protect the guys who are tired.

Happy Anniversary Wake

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Aaron Bleepin’ Boone

I was somewhere over the Mediterranean when Aaron Boone hit his home run off Wake to win the 2003 ALCS and send the Red Sox home early from the post season. Another year of what might have been. Truth be told I wouldn’t have been watching anyway. I was redeploying from Iraq that day, and after watching Pedro strike out Alfonso Soriano to end the seventh inning with the Sox still up 4-2, I went to check on my flight home.

Ortiz added a home run off of David Wells in the top of the eighth to make it 5-2. We were in great shape. Between Timlin and Embree the ’03 Sox bullpen was lights out. This was going to be THE YEAR. Enter Grady Little.

When I returned from getting my flight update, Pedro was inexplicably still on the mound for the bottom of the eighth and Jeter was on second base after a one-out double. Bernie Williams singled. Jeter scored. I dropped a number of f-bombs and left. Not because my plane was leaving. I left because I knew, deep down we all knew, how this game was going to end.

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For those too young to remember a time before Aaron Boone was ruining baseball games in the ESPN broadcast booth, I’ll summarize. New York scored three in the bottom of the eighthnn to tie it and Aaron Bleepin’ Boone sent a Tim Wakefield knuckler into the second deck in left field to send NY back to the World Series.

He’s no Bill Buckner

Walking off the mound at Yankee Stadium, having surrendered the series losing home run, Wake admitted that he was terrified that he would no longer be welcome in Boston. After all, the last Red Sox goat – Bill Buckner – had been run out of town after contributing to the collapse in the 1986 World Series against the Mets. But Wake was no Billy Buck.

Wakefield had been with the Sox for nine seasons and won 102 games for Boston by then. He’d thrown 14 great innings of relief and won two games in that ALCS. He was a legitimate candidate for series MVP. Had they won.

Boston forgave Wake. We had Grady Little to hate.

Our Ironman

Wakefield pitched 17 seasons in Boston, winning 186 games for the hometown team and 200 for his career. He did everything anyone could have asked. He averaged 200 innings a season for his 19-year career. He started. He did long relief. He closed. Sometimes all in the same season.

In 1999, the Red Sox used Wakefield, a knuckleballer who’s every pitch was an adventure for the catcher and a home run waiting to happen for the hitter, to close. In addition to staring 17 games that year, he saved 15.

Wake was selfless. In game three of the 2004 ALCS, when Boston was getting pummeled by New York and on the verge of going down 0-3 in the series, Wake asked for the ball so Franconia could save the bullpen. He entered the game in the third inning, already down 10-0. He took his lumps for 3.1 innings and gave the Sox a chance in game four.

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He came out of the bullpen in game five and threw three innings of one-hit ball in extra innings in an elimination game. And won. For those who didn’t live through the 2004 ALCS, it is difficult to describe the intensity. For Wake, who walked off the mound a loser last year, to pitch so many clutch innings in against the same opponent in the same elimination situation the following year, his performance was nothing short of incredible.

Happy Anniversary Timmy

Today, September 13th, marks the sixth anniversary since Wake won his 200th career game. It’s not a major sports event, in fact I only remembered this morning when Facebook reminded me that I was there. I’m glad I was. Tim Wakefield really represents the great unsung Red Sox that are too often overlooked. He won’t ever be enshrined in Cooperstown, but he is exactly the kind of player that this franchise should celebrate.

Defense Analysis of The Patriots’ Roster

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Forget the calendar.  The real 2017 has finally arrived.   the first game of our 2017 NFL season left a lot to be desired.  But hey, just one game, and we all know the outcome of seasons with the same disappointing start.   Here’s a quick analysis of the defense and what we need to do to be successful in the weeks to come.

Defense Wins Championships

One of the most overused phrases in team sports, but sadly it is quite true.  Unless you have a perfect offense (we are close to that but ?), your defense has to play a key role in winning games.  Big plays on defense can change a game’s momentum, and turn around what looked like a lost cause (remember Hightower in the SB?).

Defensive Backfield

In my opinion, our greatest defensive strength is the defensive backfield.  At corner back, we have Gilmore and Malcolm Butler who would rank in the top three CB pairs in the entire NFL.  Having such dominant players at CB usually should help take away opponents’ best wide receivers and throw off their offensive game plan.  If the opponents can get around the “Velcro twins” of Butler and Gilmore then they have to deal with our safeties.   The hard hitting duo of Chung and McCourty back there can make WRs hesitate for a moment before stretching out for that long pass.

When Coach Patricia goes to the nickel package, he has the freedom of bringing in players like Duron Harmon and Eric Rowe, both better than many teams’ starting defensive backs. Having depth in this area is never a bad thing, especially against a team that likes a vertical passing game. I feel that these guys don’t get enough credit because they are not as flashy as some other defensive backs in the NFL.  Flashy is just that, and I will take effective and not flashy any day at all.

Linebackers

The defense could go either way here. This could be a strength of the team when all of the players play a solid “do-your- job” kind of game. But this part of the defense  suffers with injuries to players like McClellin and Roberts, notably.  The linebacker corp has seen  an infusion of new guys like David Harris, formerly of the Jets (bet he thinks he won the lottery getting out of that mess) and Marquis Flowers.  The stalwart of the linebacker corp remains — who else — the monster Dont’a Hightower,  listed at 6 ft 3 and 265 lbs and can run like he is being chased by a grizzly.  Hightower will get this group to focus on the job at hand and act as the QB of the defense, as he has for a number of years.  This might not be the only job that Hightower has this season, and I will mention more on this shortly.

Having such a diverse group of “hybrid” LBs allows Coaches Patricia and Belichick to have the defensive players needed to handle almost anyone’s offense. These types of players can really cover more than just their own position and give an opposing offensive coordinator a few sleepless nights.

Defensive Line

This is where the big boys hang out, and the Patriots have a couple of players that give the scale a good workout.  Start with the underrated Alan Branch, 6 ft 6 and 360 lbs (I think that he might not have had both feet on the scale there) and Trey Flowers.  Both of these players are great and can disrupt an opposing offence quite easily.  They may not get Von Miller or Aaron Donald-like sack numbers, but there is more to playing defense than getting “numbers.” Throw in newly acquired Cassius Marsh, formerly of the Seahawks, and that gives the Pats a formidable threesome.  Do not forget that we also have players like Malcolm Brown who continues to improve as has behemoth Vincent Valentine.

The defensive line may not be our strength on defense, but we do have some very good players who “do their job” very well. They are not the flashy types of players like Donald or Miller, but I will take quiet and effective anytime.  The only thing that matters is the score at the end of the game and not personal numbers.

My Radical Defensive Strategy

My off-the-wall thought for this year’s defense may seem a bit radical radical.  Blame Andy Lykins, my BostonSportsExtra colleague, who  brought it  to my attention.  With the unexpected retirement of Rob Ninkovich, would it be a crazy idea to insert Dont’a Hightower into Nink’s former role? Hightower is big enough, fast enough, and just ask Matt Ryan if he can get to the QB if he is let loose.  This may require inserting David Harris possibly as the starting middle LB.  Not a stretch in my opinion.  This may seem like a radical departure from what Patriot fans are used to, but I think it could work very well.

The only thing that matters right now is that we get this season on track.  Enough of the talk, let’s play some football.  Let’s Go Patriots.  Check out the 2017 Patriots roster at www.patriots.com   Check out other great Patriots articles at www.BostonSportsExtra.com