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TNF Preview-Colts At Patriots

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Patriots and Colts kick off week 5

New England welcomes the Colts to Foxborough to start week 5 in a prime time showdown Thursday night. Indianapolis comes into this game following a long 70 minute loss to the Texans. With a 1-3 record the Colts season hangs in the balance just 4 games into the year. New England enters October at 2-2 after a 38-7 win over the Dolphins. Indy is banged up and New England is getting Edelman back, can Luck Win his first game against Brady?

Pats D needs to bring the pressure

(AP Photo/Elise Amendola)

KEYS TO THE GAME

New England has the luxury of playing at home on this short Week, with Julian Edelman making his return. Tom Brady now has Edelman and Gronk on the field together for the first time in 31 games. The Colts are missing T.Y Hilton, and are 0-5 vs the Pats with Luck starting at QB.

James White can do everything

(Staff Photo By Matt Stone/ Boston Herald)

No Need To Show To Much On Offense If Possible

The Patriots will need the offensive line to play well this week, not just for the running game, but to hold off the Colts pass rush. Last week the Offense showed improvement as Tom Brady got everyone involved, resulting in 24 points in the first half.

Finally Julian Edelman is back, he will help the Patriots Offense on third down which has been an issue for this team in 2018. Tonight this Patriots Offense will have all their weapons back, and New England hasn’t forgotten what the Colts started in 2014 about some footballs.

New England will once again get the running game going, they will try to jump out to an early lead and come out of this game unscathed. Expect to see more of the running backs, as I think the Patriots will look to run the ball early and often. This Colts team is coming in tired and banged up.

New England’s Defense Looks Improved

Historically New England has had to take T.Y Hilton out of the game with multiple players. Tonight that won’t be a problem as Hilton is out with a hamstring and chest injury.

The front seven needs to get after Luck, keep him in the pocket and force bad throws. Last week Patrick Chung and Trey Flowers returned and will be factors against Andrew Luck. Without his main target this week, expect the Colts to try to control the clock. Keeping Brady and the offense on the bench is always a smart play if you can do it.

Indianapolis has a speedy running back Nyheim Hines, who’s more of a receiving threat than a rusher. His name could be called a lot tonight on screen passes and wheel routes. New England’s Linebacker’s and safety’s will need to keep an eye on him. Without Hilton playing, the biggest receiving threat would be Eric Ebron who leads the colts in targets and red zone targets. I think tonight’s gameplan for New England is simple, no chunk plays, make Luck uncomfortable all while not showing to much.

Being very vanilla on defense and offense for the Patriots could be part of their plan. Knowing the Colts are coming here banged up, after a long overtime loss, without their best weapon. Keeping as much as they can off game film will benifit them moving forward. To do this, jumping out to a big lead is imperative. With a huge matchup next Sunday, staying healthy and not showing much if possible may be the gameplan. Although there is bad blood between these two teams, and Bill may want to try and make a statement. Belichick never forgets, same goes for Tom Brady.

Patriots vs Colts Prediction

My prediction for tonight’s game is not because I like one team better than the other. I’m looking at the facts, the injuries and history. Tom Brady is coming into this game, remembering what the Colts started which led to his suspension. He is at home, with Gronk, Edelman, Gordon and James White at his disposal. Sony Michel could come out and have a Jonas Gray game. I can’t see this Colts defense being able to keep up.

I believe the Patriots are still angry from “deflategate.” The Colts are coming into this game banged up, off a horrible overtime loss last week. Andrew Luck has never beat the Patriots and that will continue. Adding all of this up I have a big night from New England, winning 42-14.

 

 

 

Eye of the Tiger: Part 2 of Patriots Training Camp

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This is Part 2 of the 10 Patriots with the most to prove heading into training camp. To read the first five Patriots visit Part 1.

Who’s got the eye of the tiger?

The thrill of the fight…

Heading into the 2018 training camp for the New England Patriots, there are 90 hungry young men vying for 53 roster spots. Who wants it most? Which player will fight off challengers for a roster spot? Training camp is the place to find answers to these questions. The quest for a sixth championship begins with the start of the regular season. There is lots of work to be done in that time.

For your pre-training camp look at which Patriots have the most to prove, we have dived deep into the roster and dissected position depth, contract details, and likelihood of making the roster. Of course, we will apply the highly scientific Shakeup Factor to let you know the potential impact if these players do not make the team.

Elandon Roberts, LB

Roberts has performed admirably for a sixth round pick. He has started for the bulk of two years with the Patriots and won a Super Bowl while playing in another. However, his limited coverage abilities have been exposed and the Patriots may be looking for younger, better replacements.

Shakeup Factor: 4.8

He has definitely fallen short of being the “best linebacker in the Draft.” But Roberts has made a very positive impact and replacing his snaps will have to come from Hightower or some of the unproven players on the team.

 

Mike Gillislee, RB

When the Patriots signed the restricted free agent from Buffalo, many thought that he would turn into the next big thing at running back. It didn’t quite work out that way. In fact, he was not even active for a good portion of the later part of the season. With just under 2.2 million in cap space, it seems unlikely that the team will allow the Gillislee experiment to continue.

Shakeup Factor: 5.2

The SF number takes into account the likelihood that Jeremy Hill will get cut as well. It seems logical that the two big backs are battling for one roster spot. If Sony Michel, Rex Burkhead, and James White are ready to shoulder the load, then it could be that the Patriots don’t keep another RB at all. This logic is surprising, but not unthinkable.

 

Phillip Dorsett, WR

Trading away a young, cost-controlled quarterback that had already shown he can win games as a rookie would normally result in shockwaves. The Patriots trading Jacoby Brissett for a lackluster Phillip Dorsett was only the second highest QB trade they completed last season. After a year of limited impact, Dorsett has a good foundation and could make more noise this year in the crowded group of receivers. But it will be a dogfight for the speedster to make the team.

Shakeup Factor: 5.5

Trading away a quality QB prospect for a single season of poor production from a wide receiver would be considered a bad deal by any team out there. Dorsett getting cut before the year starts would go down as one of the poorer evaluations from Bill Belichick.

 

Dwayne Allen, TE

Despite his lack of quantifiable production in 2017, Dwayne Allen made a big impact that didn’t necessarily show up on the stats sheet. As the second tight end on the depth chart, his blocking abilities were surely underestimated. Will that be enough for the Pats to keep him, especially with a 13.4 million cap hit and no dead money over the next two seasons? It doesn’t seem likely.

Shakeup Factor: 7.3

Allen has competition at the tight end spot. The Patriots signed Troy Niklas and Will Tye as veterans and reports on Jacob Hollister have been just short of glowing. Allen will have to turn in his playbook if someone steps up and shows they can block as well as be productive in the passing game. That 5 million cap space could probably be used more resourcefully than for a blocking pylon.


Joe Thuney, OG

The story of Joe Thuney is a compelling one; he was a third round offensive line prospect that won the starting job as a rookie and has started every game since. The current chapter may be coming to an end.

Thuney has struggled at times. Alongside the smaller David Andrews at center, struggles between the two can contribute to breakdowns on the offensive line. Still, there are a lot of questions to be answered. Does Trent Brown win the starting left tackle job? If Isaiah Wynn plays guard this season, do the Patriots value Thuney as a backup? 

Shakeup Factor: 8.2

The Patriots have always been relatively unconventional with their offensive line. O-line savant Dante Scarnecchia has surely gained the right to make the risky roster decisions. If Thuney is the best option, he will play. If they can get good value for him, he will get a second chance somewhere else. Regardless, the offensive line should be better for the 2018 season and help the Patriots back to the Super Bowl.

Training camp will shake the tree and the nuts will tell the story. Stay tuned.

 

All photos courtesy of Getty images unless noted otherwise.

Be sure to check out other great articles for all your favorite Boston sports teams on Bostonsportsextra.com

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Jacob Hollister’s Opportunity

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“That’s where a lot of players, I’d say almost all players make a big jump—whether that is reflective in their status on the field, that’s another question. But just from a development as a football player, that second year is a big year. It’s a great opportunity for them to take that first-year knowledge that they don’t have as a rookie and be able to apply it in their job now.”

Bill Belichick.

 

The head coach of the New England Patriots often stresses the importance of making sure that a player is constantly progressing in his skill set and evolving his talents. A player’s biggest jump will be from year one to year two, BB is credited with saying. Many reasons factor into this. Familiarity in the system, a normal player off-season, NFL quality nutrition and strength training, among others.

Opportunity

On the Patriots there is one individual poised to make the most of his opportunity. He is part of a future trivia question: what team had not one, but two sets of twins on its roster and what season? The answer is the New England Patriots and the 2018 offseason. Time will tell if all four of them make the team. But Devin McCourty is a lock, and his brother Jason is not too far behind him. The other twins are a little more obscure. Cody Hollister is a wide receiver who spent his rookie year on the practice squad. His roster spot is always tenuous. The competition for the wide receivers will be fierce during training camp. His brother has a much clearer path.

Making the Most of It

Jacob Hollister already beat out one NFLer for a roster spot his rookie season. Late in camp last year, Jacob won the third tight end spot after the team cut James O’Shaughnessy. Hollister saw action sparingly as Gronk stayed healthy and Dwayne Allen contributed as a good blocker all season long. Tallying only 4 catches for 42 yards, his rookie season was still a valuable learning experience. He is showing up in offseason activities ready to compete.

The Skill Set

The Patriots have him listed at 239 pounds and 6’4″. The reviews from around the latest mini camp are that he has added some really good weight. He worked with Kevin Boss in Oregon to increase his skills as an in-line blocker. The increased familiarity of the system will aid him in his quest for a covered NFL roster spot. He seemed to take advantage of Gronk’s decision to sit out voluntary activities and put himself at the head of the pack heading into training camp.

“I think it’s just becoming reliable and earn the trust of your teammates,” Hollister said. “Obviously, you’ve got to earn the trust of your quarterback and earn the trust of everyone on the team, really.”

And he’s obviously been reading the Patriots manual on talking to the media as well.

The Mission

Carving a role for Hollister is key to making the roster for his sophomore season. Backing up Gronk and being a viable option for three TE sets will go a long way in keeping the offense balanced and the formations complex. The key to this is his blocking ability. If he proves that he can hold his own against the professionals on defense, he’s a lock for the third tight end spot at least. And should Gronk or Allen miss extended time at all, we could hearing his name a lot more this season.

Dwayne Allen Can Make up for Disappointing Season Against Dolphins

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Dwayne Allen hasn’t had the most successful season with the Patriots to say the least.

The Patriots acquired Allen and a 2017 sixth round pick this past offseason from the Colts for 2017 fourth rounder. The 6th year tight end came to New England with 1451 receiving yards and 19 touchdowns under his belt. His highlight performance thus far came almost a year ago, where he recorded three touchdown catches in the first half against the Jets. That was the Dwayne Allen Coach Belichick wanted on his squad coming into this season. The Dwayne Allen that decimated the Jets’ defense in 2016 would be dangerous when lined up with Rob Gronkowski. Bill Belichick envisioned Allen as being a perfect backup to Gronk after Martellus Bennett left the team for Green Bay. With his catching and blocking abilities Allen was theoretically one of the more exciting additions to the team last offseason. Or at least fans thought.

Unexpected Disappointment

The average NFL season possesses a certain level of entropy. A team that is successful one season might not be the next. A prime example is just about every team from the AFC West this season. The same principle goes for individual players as well. Dwayne Allen was one of the centerpieces of the Colts’ offense last season. Dubbed “Pylon Allen” by BSE’s Jeff Jardine, he has been the opposite of that so far in New England. He expected a decline in numbers when he took a secondary role on the Patriots. However, this season has been disappointing, even in backup standards. Allen has caught a mere five passes on thirteen targets. An easy drop in the home opener against the Chiefs set the tone of his season. The 406 receiving yards he put up in 2016 are ten times the amount of what he has this season.

It has been tough skating for Dwayne Allen in New England, but he doesn’t seem the slightest bit defeated. With Gronk serving a one game suspension, he will likely get the start for the first time as Patriot Monday night. Allen hopes to have similar results as Gronk when he tore up the Dolphins’ defense in Foxborough two weeks ago.

A Story of Redemption

Dolphins’ defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh told reporters that it is his job on Monday night to get in Tom Brady’s head.

“My job is to piss him off and have him yelling at his offensive linemen for not blocking me, his coach and everybody on the sideline.”

With the Patriots’ offensive line riddled with injuries as of late, the Dolphins’ defensive game plan will be focused on pressure. The only way to slow down the Patriots is to send Brady to the ground early and often. They expect that with Gronkowski out this week the Patriots will focus on their run game and passing short. Dolphins’ scouts have seen Dwayne Allen’s stats this year and have ruled out him being a factor on offense.

But Coach Belichick likes to keep defenses thinking, and I can see him using Dwayne Allen without hesitation early into the game. Quick slants and cross routes down the middle of the field will be a reliable outlet for Brady to get the ball out of his hands. Dwayne Allen won’t let this opportunity to be a focal point of the offense go to waste when his name gets called.

 

How Will Tom Brady Share the Wealth?

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Tom Brady has a bevy of quality receivers at his disposal for this upcoming season. We all know Tom Brady is not only the best quarterback in the NFL, or even just the best quarterback in NFL history, but in fact the greatest being to ever grace this Earth with his presence. He will get everyone their looks, each receiver will have their day. But how can we expect those receptions to be split up?

Wide Receivers

Julian Edelman #11 of the New England Patriots makes a catch during a game against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium on January 1, 2017 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

Julian Edelman is the old standby at wide receiver. He is Tom Brady’s most trusted target. The two of them know what each other is thinking and Brady can rely on Edelman being where he is supposed to be. Edelman is 31 now and has been banged up in recent years, but he will still get fed. In his four years as a starter he has averaged 104 receptions per 16 games played. Problem is, he doesn’t usually play in all 16. With Cooks in the fold there is a chance we see a slight decline in targets this year, but I don’t think it will be much. If Edelman can stay on the field I would expect to see 90+ receptions from him again this year. About 6 receptions per game seems about right for him.

Brandin Cooks is the hardest to predict since he is the newcomer. Yes, he is coming to New England with Tom Brady, but he was already in a great offense in New Orleans. Also, with New Orleans he had less competition for targets. The Patriots are loaded with pass catchers, the Saints were mostly Cooks and Michael Thomas. Cooks averaged 81 catches the last two years for 1156 yards and 8 touchdowns. I know a lot of people are expecting huge things from Cooks, but I think that sounds about right for him again this year. He can help spread the field and open up more lanes underneath, he can also catch some of those short screen passes at the line and try to make something of them. But with 4 good wide receivers, a few pass catching backs and Rob Gronkowski I don’t see Cooks suddenly increasing his catch total. If anything goes up I think it will be his touchdown total.

Malcolm Mitchell is a good receiver, capable of starting on most teams. On the Patriots he is behind a wealth of others on the pecking order. He will keep a role in the offense however, provided he can stay healthy. Mitchell caught 32 passes and 4 touchdowns in his rookie season last year. He really came on late in the year though, catching 21 passes between weeks 9 and 12 while scoring all 4 of his touchdowns. He even caught 6 passes in the Super Bowl during the Pats late comeback. There will be some weeks where we don’t see much of Mitchell and others where he is thrown to quite a bit. I think the Patriots “3rd” wide receiver will be matchup based, Mitchell and Hogan both having their days in the sun. I’m thinking 40-45 receptions for Mitchell this year if he can stay on the field. He has had knee problems dating back to college. The larger likelihood is Mitchell winds up missing a few games and finishes closer to 35 receptions.

Chris Hogan is the forgotten man. After bringing Cooks into the fold people have seemingly forgotten about Chris Hogan. He had 38 catches last year for 680 yards, leading the league at 17.9 yards per catch. He then came up huge in the postseason with 17 catches in 3 games and 19.5 yards per catch. His play will be a bit sporadic, matchup based. Teams that are susceptible to the long ball Hogan will be given a lot of run. Teams beat more by good route running and shorter to medium range passes I think Mitchell will see the field more. Counting the playoffs Hogan had two 100 yard games and three 90 yard games last year. I expect his stats to be hit and miss again this year. 35 catches with 600 yards seems to be doable.

Danny Amendola is still around after taking a third pay cut to stay in New England. I don’t see him doing a whole lot though unless injuries ahead of him free up targets. If everyone stays healthy Amendola may fall short of 30 catches for the third time in five seasons.

Tight Ends

Rob Gronkowski #87 of the New England Patriots makes the Broncos defenders look silly. (Photo by Doug Pensinger/Getty Images)

Rob Gronkowski hasn’t played in all 16 games since 2011 (though he did play 15 two years ago). I see no reason why the Patriots wouldn’t scale back his snaps with all these other offensive weapons they have. There is no reason to risk injury by sending Gronk onto the field for 60, 70 snaps a game. They have another tight end who is also a good blocker, and they have plenty of good to great pass catchers. Gronkowski’s snaps should be limited in an effort to keep him healthy and playing through January. Due to this, I don’t see Gronk catching 70, 80 balls like he has in the past. If he can stay on the field for all 16 games maybe 65 catches, but that’s a big if given his history. The touchdowns should still be there regardless. When healthy Gronkowski is an unstoppable force, impossible to cover and dragging defenders down the field like a man playing amongst boys. In a full season double digit touchdowns is still likely, but I’d hope and expect his snap count is brought down this year.

Dwayne Allen was brought in to fill the Martellus Bennett role. He is a younger, cheaper version of Bennett. Biggest problem with him is he has missed games in each of the past 4 seasons. Hopefully he can stay on the field and take some pressure and snaps off of Gronkowski. Allen is a good blocker, but also has capable hands. He scored 8 touchdowns in 2014 and 6 last season. I see him still catching some touchdowns down near the goal line. Opposing defenses will focus on Gronkowski, or maybe on the run game, freeing up a lane for Allen to slip free unnoticed. For catches I see him in the 35 range, but coming with about 6 touchdowns. That’s if Gronk can stay healthy. If Gronk goes down we could see Allen creep up closer to Bennett’s 55 receptions from a year ago.

Running Backs

HOUSTON, TX – FEBRUARY 05: James White #28 of the New England Patriots with the ball against the Atlanta Falcons during Super Bowl 51 at NRG Stadium on February 5, 2017 in Houston, Texas. The Patriots defeat the Atlanta Falcons 34-28 in overtime. (Photo by Focus on Sport/Getty Images)

James White is the main pass catching back. Honestly, that’s why he is here. He doesn’t make many guys miss and isn’t a huge threat as a runner. White is out there on the field to catch passes, create mismatches lined up against linebackers who can’t cover him. In fact, although he is a running back White has caught 35 more passes in his career than he has carries! He caught 60 balls a year ago and then added 18 more in the playoffs. He will still be the Patriots top receiving back, but they now have 4 capable runners who all have decent hands as well. They don’t have anyone like Legarrette Blount this year who has to be taken out on passing downs. All of them can catch the ball and make things happen. I see White’s receptions dropping some this year, maybe into the 45- 50 range.

Mike Gillislee has been assumed to be the main runner all offseason, and I think that will still be the case. However, the Patriots have always loved to play the matchups and I think each of their running backs will have their Sunday in the sun. Each will have a big game, but overall Gillislee probably leads the team in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. He is also a capable pass catcher, so unlike with Blount last year it won’t be obvious the Patriots are running when their main back is in the game. I think he stays in the game and becomes a dump off option on passing plays, picking up 25-30 receptions.

Rex Burkhead is making some late noise in the competition for reps at running back. Burkhead was given a chance to start in week 17 last year with the Bengals and ran for 119 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is in the same kind of mold as a Danny Woodhead, if he carves out a starting role over Mike Gillislee he could catch 40+ balls this season. As it stands now I expect Gillislee to get the most work, but I think Burkhead will have a couple big games. I have him pegged for 25 receptions, with the ability to corral a lot more with playing time.

Dion Lewis is the shiftiest of the Patriots running backs. He can make guys look downright silly out on the field when the ball is in his hands. Lewis gets banged up though and misses a lot of time, so it’s hard to envision him having a huge role. In 2014, Lewis caught 36 passes in only 7 games as the Patriots featured him a lot more that year. Given his injury history he won’t be as heavily used. However, he did manage to catch 17 passes last year in his 7 games after returning from injury. This leads me to believe Lewis will still have some sort of role. Even with the crowded backfield he could catch 2-3 balls per game.