Tag Archives: kelvin herrera

Forget Kimbrel, Sign Kelvin Herrera

Leave a reply

Mainly due to a lack of suiters, there is plenty of speculation that Craig Kimbrel is bound to come back to the Red Sox. But Kimbrel’s weaknesses haven’t disappeared. He will still be pricey, even at a reduced rate. Kelvin Herrera, however, is also sitting out there. And his experience and value could be priceless to the Sox.

Injury History

One reason Kelvin Herrera is still available is his injury history. He suffered a torn Lisranc ligament in his left foot and had surgery for it on 8/30/2018.  The recovery for that encompasses around six months and requires vigilance.  That means he’ll be available a few weeks into spring training if all goes well. From the looks of it, things are on track:

Beyond his foot surgery, Herrera had a right shoulder impingement in August of last year. That was actually good news. He was traded from the Royals in the first place in part due to his mysterious shoulder problems. Knowing it was an impingement provides a clear method of treatment going forward. He would not be throwing ‘light toss’ if he was still suffering.

Performance

There’s a lot to like about Herrera.  He will only be 29 on Opening Day 2019.  He also he walks the fewest batters of all the relievers that are and were available in free agency.  His 3 year average is 2.17 walks per 9 innings, which is the lowest of all comparisons in the top tier.  It is that low walk number than allows him to rival Kimbrel in the walk per strikeout stat.  Herrera is 4.6 BB/K, Kimbrel is 4.97 BB/K. His three year ERA in the regular season is 3.15.

His postseason performance is almost Rivera-esq. His postseason ERA is 1.26 in 28.2 innings. That includes a minuscule 1.081 WHIP and 11.9 K/9. He turns it up when the lights are brightest, a perfect fit for the Sox.

Because of his injury there are questions about Herrera, but that will also make him less expensive.  He very well could big the biggest relief Ace bargain of 2019.

2019 Red Sox Free Agency: Get Cody Allen

Leave a reply

The Red Sox bullpen is in flux for 2019.  Craig Kimbrel is out there asking for a 6-year deal, which the Red Sox will never give him.  Joe Kelly is also a free agent, and his performance doesn’t exactly inspire.  Because an already bloated Red Sox payroll, it’s looking like a budget bullpen piece is the answer.  The place to go is Cody Allen.

Cody Allen Performance

Between the years of 2014 and 2017, Cody Allen was one of the best closers in the game.  He averaged 32 saves a year as the anchor of a star-studded bullpen that included Andrew Miller.  The Cleveland Indians rode that bullpen to a lot of postseason success, including a run to the 2016 World Series.

In the regular season, he averaged an ERA under 3 during that time, but he stepped it up in the Postseason.  His career Postseason ERA was 0.47 in 19 innings.  That’s positively vintage Mariano Rivera territory.

But then 2018 happened.  He had a 4.70 ERA, lost his closer position, and got blown up in the Postseason.  So what gives?

The information may be behind a paywall, but pitch usage points to a few things – specifically his curveball.  The curve got less swing and misses in 2018, and he had some trouble throwing it for strikes.  Furthermore, he lost a MPH on his fastball, which dipped below 94 MPH.  The fastball/curve mix is what made him so deadly.

Maybe being in a free agent year got to him.  Maybe he was simply tired and in this era of quick hooks and little patience he crumbled.  But he wouldn’t be available if he had remained elite last year.

Contract Possibilities

A quick google search of Cody Allen shows a distinct lack of contract demands.  There are not even stories out there like this one, saying Joe Kelly is being looked at by multiple teams as a closer.  Because of this, it appears clear that Allen would come cheap.  Maybe even on a one year deal.  Now that’s more like it.

Cody Allen isn’t necessarily a sure thing, but he looks pretty good from here.  He’s one year removed from being untouchable in the Postseason for many years.  He’s only 30 years old, he’s cheap, and he would be an excellent gamble to pair with the remaining relievers on the staff, such as Ryan Brasier and Matt Barnes, in the late innings.

Furthermore, he is right-handed.  This is essential.  The Red Sox biggest competition, the Astros and Yankees, have a plethora of right-handed, middle of the order bats in their lineups.  To me, that excludes left-handed possibilities for essential bullpen roles like Andrew Miller and Zach Britton.  Kelvin Herrera is also cheap, right-handed, and recently successful, but arm troubles on top of foot troubles make him too risky.

That leaves Cody Allen.  Sign him.

 

 

The 2019 Red Sox Bullpen: The Craig Kimbrel Question

Leave a reply

There are changes coming to the 2019 Red Sox Bullpen.  Yesterday I took a look at Joe Kelly.  The biggest piece, closer Craig Kimbrel, is today’s focus..  Is he worth paying to keep and what are some options out there?

Craig Kimbrel

In 2017 Craig Kimbrel was the 800 lb gorilla of all time Red Sox closers.  5-0 with 35 saves and a 1.43 ERA.  If he had been given more opportunity I’m sure he would’ve had even more saves.

Using a 3 year average is an attempt to have some perspective, but in Kimbrel’s case the 2017 season has a massive effect.  Because Kimbrel’s three year stats are, frankly, amazing: 14.8 K/9 and a 2.52 ERA.

Even then though, the walks show through: 3.8 per 9 innings.  That’s a lot of base runners.  When he’s on his game and striking out the world, it works.  When he’s not, let’s just say Alex Cora going with Chris Sale to close out game five says a ton.  And Kimbrel giving up a two run home run to Kiki Hernandez of all people in game four brought back all those non save situation failures from prior years.

All of this is to say Kimbrel’s not a guarantee to bring back as the 2019 Red Sox closer.  But who is out there who could be a good fit?  Closers who have working in the American League and have postseason experience.

Kelvin Herrera

Kelvin Herrera will undoubtedly be the least expensive option.  He suffered a torn Lisranc ligament in his left foot and had surgery for it on 8/30/2018.  The recovery for that encompasses around six months and requires vigilance.  That means he’ll be available a few weeks into spring training if all goes well.

There’s a lot to like about Herrera.  He is the youngest of this group at 29 on Opening Day 2019.  He also he walks the fewest batters.  His 3 year average is 2.17 walks per 9 is the lowest of all the comparisons I’ve found in the top tier group.  It is that low walk number than allows him to rival Kimbrel in the walk per strikeout stat.  Herrera is 4.6 BB/K, Kimbrel is 4.97 BB/K.

His three year ERA is 3.15 and the Red Sox tried to trade for him at the trade deadline this year.  His injuries were bad luck.  This year was his first extended time on the DL.

Because of his injury there are questions about Herrera, but that will also make him less expensive.  He very well could big the biggest relief Ace bargain of 2019.

Cody Allen

This former Cleveland Indians closer fell out of favor due to an off year in 2018.  While Kimbrel will be 31, Cody Allen will be 30 on opening day 2019.

Even with a bad 2018 he can stand next to Kimbrel at 3.8 BB/9 (Kimbrel is at 3.8) and he’s tantalizing because he will be cheaper than Kimbrel and has had a lot of success.  In 2016 and 2017 he averaged a 2.73 ERA and 31 saves a year with almost 12 K/9.  That is dominant.

Because of 4.70 ERA in 2018 and corresponding difficulties he’s a question.  But a worthy gamble due to the potential of prior years and no obvious injury.

Conclusion

Ultimately I believe Kimbrel will come back if he’s asking for a reasonable salary.  But if he’s pushing $20 Million like Mark Melancon I see a few appealing options out there that have pitched in the American League, in the playoffs, and are at reasonable age.

The Red Sox Bullpen Feels Shaky. Does it Matter?

1 Reply

Baseball’s waiver trade deadline passed yesterday, without so much as a peep from the top team in the majors. Dave Dombrowski and the Red Sox chose to roll with the guys in the clubhouse, despite two other AL rivals (New York and Cleveland) making moves to bring in former MVPs and despite calls across their fan base to improve the bullpen.

Those desperate cries have rang out all season long. As it turns out, fans aren’t feeling too comfortable at the thought of Matt Barnes, Joe Kelly, or Heath Hembree entering the 8th inning of a Game 7. Dombrowski’s reputation of building star-studded teams without reliable relievers doesn’t help matters either.

But just how shaky is Boston’s ‘pen? Is having a group of dominant relievers really so important in October? Let’s do a bit of digging to find out.

Red Sox Bullpen: Actually Good?

Photo Credit: AP Photo / Charles Krupa

For starters, the idea that the Red Sox bullpen has struggled this season is more perception than reality. There may not be a ton of big names and former closers like there are with the Yankees and Indians. That being said- the Sox’s relievers have generally been up to the task.

Boston currently ranks 6th in the majors in reliever ERA this season (4th in the AL). The five teams ahead of them also happen to be teams currently slated for a playoff spot. The aforementioned Indians, despite trading for the Padres’ Brad Hand earlier this summer and having Cody Allen and Andrew Miller in the mix, rank 26th in the league in bullpen ERA.

The Sox also rate favorably in FIP (5th in the majors, 3rd amongst playoff teams). Their bullpen’s 4.5 fWAR ranks 7th in baseball, even though their relievers have thrown only 461 innings this season (19th most). In other words, Boston’s ‘pen has provided enough value to rank in the top 25% of teams, despite appearing in fewer innings than every team ahead of them for the exception of Houston.

Of course, that doesn’t mean they’ve been perfect. Far from it in fact. Two troubling peripherals: the Red Sox rank 18th in reliever BB/9 (3.65) and 4th in strand rate (78.4%). Giving up free passes in high-leverage situations is playing with fire, especially in October. A high strand rate means that Boston has done well at putting out those fires. But, that luck can turn in a hurry.

Bullpen Matters

CINCINNATI, OH – AUGUST 12: Joe Kelly #56 of the Boston Red Sox pitches in the third inning of the game against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on August 12, 2014 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)

All of this is to say that the Red Sox bullpen has been overall perfectly acceptable, if not dominant. The good news? Having a great regular season bullpen isn’t necessarily a predictor for postseason success, especially if you excel in other areas like Boston does.

The defending World Series champion Astros ranked 17th in baseball with a 4.27 bullpen ERA last year, yet still won 101 games. That was thanks in large part to their league-leading offense and strong starting pitching. The team they beat for the title last year, the Dodgers, ranked 4th in bullpen ERA. Both finished behind the Red Sox, whose 3.15 reliever ERA was good for 2nd best in baseball.

Here’s where the other previous six pennant winners ranked in bullpen ERA:

2016: Cubs 8th, Indians 4th

2015: Royals 2nd, Mets 11th

2014: Giants 5th, Royals 10th

Of the last eight World Series participants, four finished in the top five. Only last year’s Astros finished outside of the top half of the league. The Royals, who started this craze with their three-headed monster of Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera, and Greg Holland, finished 2nd in 2015. Their bullpen effectively functioned as the team’s greatest asset, compensating for a weak rotation and unconventional lineup. It was essentially the inverse of what the ’17 Astros lineup did for their relievers.

It’s perfectly fair to critique Dombrowski for not finding a better option at either trade deadline. It certainly would have been nice to supplement Craig Kimbrel at the end of games. Ultimately, it might not matter if the Red Sox bullpen is merely above average instead of dominant. Having a killer set of relievers helps come playoff time. However, it’s not necessarily more important than timely hitting, strong starting pitching, and major contributions from stars.

Thus far, it appears Red Sox management is betting on that being the case.

The Hunt for a Better Bullpen

Leave a reply

If you watched Red Sox baseball this past week, you should have seen a trend forming. All week great starting pitching was followed by the bullpen crapping themselves. The stats in the last seven days can support this claim, as Sox starters have had a 3.11 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP. Sox relievers have had a 6.06 ERA with a 1.59 WHIP. This has been frustrating to watch and almost makes us forget about Jackie Bradley Jr.’s woes at the plate.

Better Numbers are Ahead

The full season’s numbers don’t paint the same story, however. Sox relievers in the entire season have posted a 3.76 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Starters also going on to average 3.49 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Clearly, we can justify this by saying the obvious: The Red Sox bullpen had a bad week. They were not clutch and they did not throw quality strikes. More was expected from this quality pitching staff.

The only way from here is up and the quality is ahead of us, folks. We have seen this bullpen do tremendous things when they try. Carson Smith is finally turning the corner, posting a 1.04 ERA in the last 28 days (11 games) with 12 strikeouts and one earned run. In the same sample size, Joe Kelly has posted a 0.77 ERA with 16 strikeouts and one earned run.

Reinforcements are Incoming

Don’t forget, more help is on the way. Tyler Thornburg is set to begin his rehab assignment in Triple-A Pawtucket on Monday 5/14. Steven Wright is also slated to join the Sox on the same day. A much needed depth will be added to this bullpen, but what can we expect from the two? Thornburg hasn’t pitched in a major league baseball game since 2016. Even then, I’m sure Cora will be using him sparingly since he’s apparently made of glass. Even Wright, who has recovered fully from his left knee injury and served his 15 game suspension for domestic violence, will be a mixed bag of results.

Also, at some point, Bobby Poyner should be getting called back up as well. Poyner posted a 2.25 ERA in seven regular season games with the Sox, and even has a 1.42 ERA in six games with the PawSox. If anybody outside of Brian Johnson slips up, expect to see Poyner in the big league bullpen for the majority of the season.

Dealin’ Dave at it Again?

What if this all doesn’t pan out the way we expect? There will be trade activity around the time of the deadline (or even sooner) and the Red Sox will be involved one way or another. Kelvin Herrera and Jeurys Familia are two names that will probably finish the 2018 season with a different team and are two pieces that can really bring a bullpen to the next level. Yes, both are closers and both are eligible for free agency in 2019, so they would be rentals. However, the Sox obviously wouldn’t dare move Craig Kimbrel from his job in the pen.

The Mets and the Royals both seem to be trending downward quickly and I would be shocked if they were playoff contenders this season. Also, both teams could use an outfielder which could potentially prompt a JBJ trade. Familia is known for his sinker which averages at 97 mph and Herrera for his 89 mph changeup. Also, they have been in the spotlight before as they actually faced each other in the 2015 World Series. That last part is something the Sox bullpen lacks: clutch factor.

Overall, these two players will find another home this season acting as rentals. The New York Yankees are also in the same boat as the Red Sox for the fact that their bullpen hasn’t been the best either. Also, going off of last year, the Astros bullpen may not be the best as well. All in all, the Sox won’t be alone when it comes to bolstering their relief pitchers, but hopefully this bad week has been a wake up call to the front office.

@ELJGON