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Red Sox-Yankees ALDS Preview Extravaganza

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It’s pretty hard to believe it’s been 14 years since we’ve had a playoff series featuring Major League Baseball’s premier rivalry. The Red Sox and Yankees will kick off their first postseason matchup since 2004 later tonight, and on paper it looks to be a doozy. Two 100-win juggernauts. Over $400 million in combined payroll. Stars all over the diamond. History everywhere. I can’t wait.

I’ll be breaking down both sides of this series, and then picking a winner at the end. But before we get into all of that, let’s take a little trip down memory lane:

Okay, glad we got that out of our systems. On to the good stuff.

Starting Lineup

The Red Sox led the majors in just about every major offensive category this season. They placed first in total runs, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging, and wOBA. Boston was led by MVP-caliber seasons from Mookie Betts (.346/.438/.640) and JD Martinez (.330/.402/.629), though the Sox received significant contributions from others as well. Andrew Benintendi improved dramatically on his rookie campaign. Jackie Bradley Jr. slashed .282/.349/.502 over his final 284 plate appearances after a dismal start. Xander Bogaerts finally shook off his second half demons to post a career year.

And yet, there are some holes, and question marks (specifically at second base, third base, and catcher). Meanwhile, the Yankees offense is just as potent, if not more so. The Bronx Bombers tied the Dodgers for the best wRC+ in baseball (the Red Sox were a close 3rd). They also broke the Major League record for home runs in a season, with 269. That last one is a big point in the Yankees favor, as teams who hit more HR tend to have more success in October.

The slugging starts with Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge, who both homered in Wednesday’s Wild Card game. Luke Voit has been a revelation at first base, where his 188 OPS+ over 148 PA has lengthened an already long lineup and provided a boon desperately needed after poor seasons from Greg Bird and Gary Sanchez. That’s not to mention the production from rookies Miguel Andujar and Gleybar Torres. Plus, Brian Cashman was able to throw former NL MVP Andrew McCutchen into the mix in August.

The Sox have a great offense, but it feels like New York’s is a bit more formidable for this time of year.

Slight Edge: Yankees

Starting Pitching

Here’s how the first three starting pitching matchups seem to be shaking out:

Game 1 – J.A. Happ vs. Chris Sale

Game 2 – Mashiro Tanaka vs. David Price

Game 3 – Rick Porcello vs. Luis Severino

That certainly feels like it favors the Red Sox. Three AL Cy Young Award winners should be enough to tip this category in Boston’s favor. That is, until you include each pitcher’s career postseason ERA…

Game 1 – J.A. Happ (3.72) vs. Chris Sale (8.38)

Game 2 – Masahiro Tanaka (1.44) vs. David Price (5.03)

Game 3 – Rick Porcello (5.47) vs. Luis Severino (4.50)

Look, I get it. Postseason baseball is a small sample size, and past performance isn’t always indicative of future performance, especially in that scenario. But it’s hard to feel too confident, given Price’s non-Rays playoff history, Porcello’s inability to keep the ball in the yard, and Sale’s dip in velocity since returning from multiple summer DL stints. The Yankees starters might not have the same upside, but they certainly feel less volatile. The Happ acquisition continues to loom large. He’s undefeated since joining the Yankees, and has a career 2.98 ERA against the Red Sox. If he can beat Sale in Game 1, it’ll be a bad omen for the Sox’s chances through the weekend. I’m choosing to trust that the Red Sox starters are ready to turn a corner this postseason, but I don’t feel great about it.

Slight Edge: Red Sox

Bullpen

I’ll save you the suspense. This is a huge win (obviously) for the Yankees, and will likely be the deciding factor should the Yankees come out on top. The Red Sox bullpen, while much maligned over the past month, has actually been perfectly above average this season. Craig Kimbrel still looms at the end of games as a premier closer, and rebounded from a mid-summer swoon with a 13 appearance stretch where he allowed only 3 hits and 1 earned run between 8/12 and 9/21. Still, a 4 run implosion in his second to last appearance of the year against the lowly Orioles bumped his ERA to 2.74, the second worst mark of his career.

The rest of the Sox bullpen is fine. Solid, unspectacular, and far from reliable (unless you’re really into the Matt Barnes Experience).

The Yankees ‘pen, conversely, reads like a damn All-Star team. There’s Chapman and Britton. There’s Betances and Robertson. Chad Green may not have as big of a name as his teammates, but he might be the most consistent of the bunch. New York can trot any and all of these guys out there in a high leverage situation, and be reasonably comfortable that the outcome will be in their favor. They led the league in reliever fWAR, and while the Red Sox have had their share of come-from-behind wins this year, they’ll be hard pressed to overcome any substantial deficits in this series.

Major Edge: Yankees

Bench X Factor

Steve Pearce has been a terrific mid-season addition for the Red Sox, providing a boost at a premium offensive position as Mitch Moreland struggled down the stretch. But Brock Holt is the guy here. He can play nearly every position on the diamond, and had perhaps the best all-around season of his career. Holt slashed .277/.362/.411 with a 109 OPS+ this year, and had plenty of clutch moments off the bench:

Holt had 5 hits in 15 pinch-hitting plate appearances, 4 of which went for extra bases. Alex Cora will almost definitely call his number in a tight spot again this series, and Holt will need to deliver.

For the Yankees, Austin Romine *should* be the starting catcher. But, because the baseball gods would never want to deprive us of the joy of watching Gary Sanchez trot after yet another passed ball, he’s stuck in a platoon. If Aaron Boone is smart, he’ll put his best lineup on the field. Fingers crossed nobody gives him a heads up.

Edge: Red Sox

Manager

Cora has been a breath of fresh air for the Red Sox off the field and in the clubhouse this season. After two years of underachieving relative to their talent, the Sox took off under their first year manager’s watch. Cora hasn’t been perfect with his in game decisions, and it does seem like he lingers with guys a bit longer than I would like. However, he’s been excellent as rookie managers go on the whole.

I’ll just say I don’t get the same vibe from Boone, and leave it at that. Plus, I kind of miss Joe Girardi and his binder.

Edge: Red Sox

The Pick

I really want to pick the Yankees. While I think the Red Sox are a better team overall, and better suited for a full 162 game slate, New York feels built for the postseason, especially a short series. The bullpen discrepancy is a major check in the Yankees favor. In a series that figures to be as tight as this one, such an advantage is a major red flag for Boston.

But screw that. What’s the point of writing for a Red Sox blog if you don’t think the best regular season team in franchise history can make it out of the first round?

RED SOX IN 5

Mookie

Red Sox Beat New York In Round One

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The battle of David vs. Goliath was more of a thrashing, as Mookie, and Chris Sale lead the charge and beat the Yankees 14-1 .

While both teams sent their aces out in the first match up of the year, Luis Severino didn’t have a shot. Chris sale mowed down 8 while lasting 6 innings in a monstrous 14-1 win. This brings their season record to 9-1 while New York is sitting at 5-6 ( 4.5 games back.)

Mookie Betts went 4-4 while hitting a grand slam and collecting 4 rbis and drawing a walk. Hanley extended his hit streak to 8 games with a pair of hits and grabbing 3 rbis. To round off the top three hitters Andrew Benintendi went 2-3 with a triple and 3 rbis.

Luis Severino (2-1) now posts a 3.50 era with 20 strikeouts on the season. He had a rough night from the jump, his command was never well placed, and he never had the Red Sox hitters second guessing. His opponent, Chris Sale (1-0) now sports a 1.06 era while tallying 23 strike outs on the season. Sale had a polar opposite night than Luis, with great command and sending multiple Yankee fans home depressed.

Aaron Judge hit the Yankees only run in a 444 foot home run over center field. Giancarlo Stanton went 2-4 while striking out twice and notching a double out by the Green Monster. With Xander Bogaerts slated for the 10 day dl, Brock Holt and Tsu-Wei-Lin stepped in for the shortstop. Both infielders  providing great defense in tonight’s win.

Wednesday’s match-up is slated for 7:10 pm with the Sox sending David Price ( 1-0) 0.00 era, against New York’s Masahiro Tanaka (1-1) 2.92 era in what should be a good match up.  With Alex Cora keeping his powerful lineup well rested, it’s only a matter of time until we see which line up is sent out to the field tomorrow night. It’s Boston vs. New York round 2, with only 18 more meetings on the season, every game counts towards first place.

The Top Starting Pitchers in Baseball

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There have been some top 10’s circulating lately, with MLB Network posting their top 10 for 2018 at each position. Buster Olney also did a top 10 at each position, but his lists showed an immense New York bias and Red Sox hatred from the former Yankees reporter. Seeing his lists made me want to rectify them. Now, here’s where my list is different from MLB Network’s lists; I am not doing for just this season as they have been. Personally, I care more about who I would want on my favorite team rather than who will put up good numbers for just one season. With my lists, I will be taking age into consideration when determining the 10 best players at each position. So, whereas Justin Verlander might crack the top five best pitchers for 2018, he’s a fringe candidate for my top 10 list.

1. Clayton Kershaw

Clayton Kershaw, pretty clearly to me, is the best pitcher in baseball. What he has accomplished these past five to seven years is historic, and at just 29 years old he is already a top 10 left-handed pitcher of all-time in my book. From 2013-2016, Kershaw had an ERA below 2.00 in three of those four seasons. His WHIP has been under 1.00 in each of the past five seasons.

In these past seven years, Kershaw has a 118-41 win-loss record to go with a 2.10 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. During this remarkable run, he has never finished lower than 5th in the Cy Young vote; that fifth place finish was thanks to an injury. If Kershaw had not missed time that year he likely would have won his 4th Cy Young. As it stands, he has three of them along with two 2nd place finishes and an MVP Award.

If there is one thing that can keep Clayton Kershaw from being number one, it is injuries. Kershaw has missed some time the past couple seasons due to injury. The injuries haven’t been to his arm, but each of the last two years it has been a back injury that has forced him out. The fact that he has now had recurring issues with his back is of some concern. However, with how dominant he is, and just turning 30 this March, Kershaw still ranks number one in my book.

2. Max Scherzer

At 33, Scherzer is the old man of the lists, which makes me feel old. It doesn’t seem like that long ago I took him as a dark horse to win the AL Cy Young and he did. Since, Scherzer has developed into one of the very best in the game. Over the past five seasons, Scherzer has won 3 Cy Young Awards and placed in the top five in the other two. During that stretch, he is 89-33 with a 2.87 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 10.9 strike outs per nine innings. Scherzer has also thrown two no-hitters and tied a Major League mark by striking out 20 batters in one game. He seems like he will contend for Cy Young Awards for a few more seasons, and that is good enough for me.

Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire

3. Corey Kluber

I don’t think you can go wrong in an order for these top three pitchers. What Kluber has done while pitching in the American League could certainly warrant consideration for the top spot. Surprising to me, Kluber will be 32 this April, two years older than Kershaw despite beginning his career later. Kluber has really taken off the past four seasons, winning two Cy Young Awards and placing third in another year. He has led the league in wins twice, ERA once and WHIP once during that span. He has also struck out more batters than innings pitched in each of those seasons. Kluber rode a fantastic second half last season to his second Cy Young Award. With 1006 strike outs, a 2.83 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over the past four seasons, it’s hard to argue with Kluber in any one of these top three spots.

4. Chris Sale

Sale is the first one who won’t be 30 by season’s end. However, as great as Sale is, he seems to be a notch behind the three above him. Nonetheless, what Sale has achieved is pretty amazing. Sale began his professional career as a relief pitcher, making just 11 appearances in the minors before a call up the same year he was drafted. He then made 79 relief appearances over his first two seasons. In his six seasons since as a starter, Sale has made six all-star teams and has never finished lower than sixth place in a Cy Young vote. He has a 3.01 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 10.5 strike outs per nine innings during that time period.

After being acquired by the Red Sox last offseason, Sale struck out a career high 308 batters and led the league. This was the second time in his career that Sale had led the league in strike outs. The total helped Sale to a second place Cy Young finish behind Corey Kluber, the closest he has come to winning the award. One thing that could help Sale invade the ranks of the guys above him is finishing years stronger. Sale has a tendency to fade late in the year, with September being by far the worst month of his career historically.

Red Sox starting pitcher Chris Sale delivers a pitch against the Tampa Bay Rays during the first inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

5. Madison Bumgarner

Bumgarner seems like he has been around for a while and thrown a ton of innings, but he is still only 28 years old. One of the best pitchers in baseball this decade, Bumgarner has a 3.01 career ERA. Before last season’s injury plagued year, he had posted an ERA under 3.00 in four consecutive seasons. His strike out rate had also been climbing during that stretch, peaking at 10 strike outs per nine in 2016.

Where Bumgarner really separates himself is in the postseason. Over 14 starts and 16 appearances during postseason play, Bumgarner is 8-3 with a 2.11 ERA. He elevates his game even further for the World Series, going 4-0 with a save in his five appearances. During those games, Bumgarner has allowed one run, just one, over 36 innings pitched. He has allowed an absurd 14 base hits during those 36 innings. He is the pitcher you want on the mound come playoffs.

Charlie Neibergall/AP Photo

6. Noah Syndergaard

“Thor”, as he has been called, has only pitched in parts of three seasons at the big league level. Last season was mostly a wasted season for him, only making seven starts due to injury. The fact he still comes in at six speaks volumes to the talent he has shown. Syndergaard’s average fastball this past season was 98.6 miles per hour! That’s just his average, not his top speed. His devastating slider sits in the low to mid-90’s, which is nearly unheard of for a breaking pitch. In 2016, his one full season to this point, Syndergaard had a 2.60 ERA and struck out 218 batters against just 43 walks. I don’t think we’ve seen the best of him yet.

7. Stephen Strasburg

Strasburg is the second Nationals player to make this list. One of the most hyped pitchers I have witnessed coming out of college, Strasburg has always been good, but never quite living up to expectations. Last season, seven years after his debut, Strasburg posted the best season of his career. He was 15-4 with a career low 2.52 ERA and 1.015 WHIP. Maybe he is learning what it takes to fully tap into all that potential. His biggest pitfall has been injuries. Strasburg blew out his arm in just his second professional season and hasn’t made 30 starts in any of the last three seasons.

8. Dallas Keuchel

Keuchel doesn’t get enough recognition from the media and public because he isn’t a flashy strike out pitcher. However, all he does is get outs, and a lot of them come on the ground. Since Keuchel broke out four years ago, he has struck out 7.6 batters per nine innings. That total was pretty decent in the nineties, but nowadays it barely registers on the radar. It doesn’t matter though, Keuchel has posted an ERA below 3.00 in three of the last four seasons. In 2015 he won the Cy Young Award after going 20-8 with a 2.48 ERA. Last year he may have contended for the award again had it not been for injury. On June 2nd, when he went down with the injury, Keuchel was 9-0 with a 1.67 ERA. He missed nearly two months and had a few rocky outings after returning.

9. Luis Severino

At 23 years old, Severino is the youngest one on my list. He will be 24 by month’s end, and his inclusion here is a nod to his age and the promise he has shown. Before the 2015 seasons, Baseball America rated Severino as the 35th best prospect in baseball. After dominating AAA he showed promise in 11 starts at the big league level. To the delight of Red Sox fans, he was a mess the following season, going 3-8 with a very high ERA and WHIP. However, Severino fixed whatever was wrong and came back stronger than ever last season. While pitching in one of the most hitter friendly stadiums, Severino went 14-6 with a 2.98 ERA and struck out 10.7 batters per nine innings.

10. Carlos Carrasco

Carrasco, although highly thought of, also seems to fly just a little under the radar. After being a good prospect as far back as a decade ago, Carrasco took some time to find his footing. Since his breakout in 2014 though, he has been one of the best pitchers in the American League. I gave him the nod at the tenth spot over a couple National Leaguers because his numbers are similar while pitching in a tougher league. Turning 31 just before the start of this coming season, Carrasco should have plenty of years left in his arm. Over the past four seasons he has a 3.24 ERA and a stellar 1.08 WHIP. Carrasco has also struck out nearly 10 batters per nine innings and is coming off a career high 226 strike outs this past season.

Honorable Mentions:

Jacob DeGrom, Kyle Hendricks, Justin Verlander, Robbie Ray, Zack Greinke

 

Featured picture taken from SI.com

What a Difference a Year Makes – Drew Pomeranz

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The Trade

Last July, the Boston Red Sox acquired Drew Pomeranz from the San Diego Padres for prospect Anderson Espinoza. Some expressed concern about giving away a highly touted prospect in Espinoza, who compared to Pedro Martinez.   The Red Sox sorely wanted one last push to make the playoffs with their elder statesman David Ortiz in his final season.

 

At the time of the trade, he brought an 8-7 record, with a 2.47 ERA, a 1.06 Whip, an impressive .184 Opp BA and averaging 10 strikeouts per nine innings. Last year that made a lot of sense.   Trade a prospect who was only in Lower-A Greenville, for an All-Star southpaw (Pomeranz made his first All-Star game in 2016 as a member of the Padres) who could anchor the back end of our rotation.  And locked up through the following season to boot.

 

Photo courtesy of ESPN

A Rocky Beginning

However, the buzz died quickly.  In his first start against the San Francisco Giants, he gave up five runs over three innings and surrendered two home-runs. He got a shellacking from the visiting team as well as the Fenway faithful as he exited the ballpark.

Pomeranz would rebound as serviceable the month of August.   But then he experienced two dismal back-to-back outings in September, where he managed only two innings and three and two-thirds, respectively. To add salt to the wound, he was taxing the bullpen and struggling with the long ball, giving it up in every game except one since joining the team.

He made one more outing before he was held out for 10 days due to soreness in his left forearm, a nightmare scenario for almost any pitcher.

Medical Concerns

This prompted medical concerns from the Red Sox organization.  They believed that the Padres did not disclose all the necessary medical information during the trade talks. Major League Baseball eventually investigated the claim.  San Diego Padres General Manager A.J. Preller was suspended by MLB for not fully disclosing the medical records of Drew Pomeranz.

Red Sox and Pomeranz Move On

The Red Sox stood behind Pomeranz, and moved him to the bullpen where he pitched in two games in the ALDS versus the Cleveland Indians.   His inconsistency lingered, going two-plus innings without surrendering a run, followed by a second outing where he took the loss in the final game of the series.

It’s a New Year, A New Pomeranz

 

They say, “Hope Springs Eternal” or does it? In a May game in Oakland after throwing 98-pitches through four innings, on the heels of two sub-par appearances, John Farrell yanked him. The two exchanged words in the dugout.

Turning Point

While Drew Pomeranz showed frustration, it may have created a turning point.  He went on to win the next 9 of 11 decisions. He is currently 12-4 with a 3.39 ERA, tying him for 8th in wins in all of MLB.   Arguably in the best season of his career, Pomeranz stepped up in the absence of David Price as the number-two man in the rotation.

In fact, after his performance against the Yankees this past weekend, where he bested Luis Severino, pitching another quality start, it just shows a year can make all the difference for a player.

Just ask Drew Pomeranz.