When I wrote the Rays series preview last week I started it by asking if the prior series could have gone much worse. Just a week later and the tone and feeling around this team is so different. The Red Sox took five of their seven games against the Rays and Yankees, and really could not have dreamed of much more. However, if it had not been for dropping the final game of each series it could have been the perfect week.
Price and Morton will go head to head once again to open this series, having closed out the last one. Combined they pitched 13 innings, allowed five earned runs on nine hits and two walks while striking out 19. They might find it a little tougher in the more hitter-friendly confines of Fenway Park, but this should be a matchup to watch.
With Yarbrough currently projected to start the second game, it is worth looking at how he fares as a starter this season and in his career. Both this season and in his career he is worse as a starter than a reliever, but that is not hugely surprising given the situations. However, the split that should concern the Red Sox is home versus away. At home, his ERA in any role is 5.79, but on the road that drops to 2.79. The Red Sox cannot allow that game to slip through their fingers, but it will not be easy.
The still relatively new Red Sox pitcher Andrew Cashner has a limited body of work against the Rays. He has just five starts and 29 innings against them in his career. His overall numbers are fairly middling, with a 4.03 ERA, 2-1 record, 18 strikeouts, and 12 walks. Not good, but not a disaster. Against a usually stingy Rays pitching staff the Red Sox could do with him being good in this one.
HITTERS
The Red Sox offense has been on fire in the last week. In the last seven days, they have hit .354 with 11 home, 46 runs scored and a whopping 37 extra-base hits. That does not even include the 14 runs they scored in the first two games of the last Rays series. This is the offense we expected this season, and we need to see more of it.
Getting on top of the Rays offense is key to victory. That is an obvious statement, but when I say early I mean really early, as in the first batter of the game. This season, in 108 PA the Rays have hit .340 in that spot, with eight runs, 15 extra-base hits, eight walks, and just 18 strikeouts. Overall the number one hitter in their order has a .306 batting average, 28 home runs, and 57 extra-base hits. That leads all positions in their batting order.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
Pitching: The righties on this roster are the big question mark right now, well, and Chris Sale too. However, focusing on Porcello and Cashner is key for opponents right now. The two righties have been unimpressive this season, and the Red Sox need that to change. Their two starts against a lineup which is solid but unspectacular will be key. If they blow up, and the Red Sox lose to two of the Rays lesser starters, they once again head to face the Yankees in a lot of trouble.
Hitting: Hopefully, we are just going to sit back and watch this lineup do their work. However, the real intrigue is Morton, because if the Red Sox want a World Series they will likely need to beat pitchers like Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. Perhaps even Morton himself in a play-in game to just simply get into a full playoff series. Lay down a marker in Game 1 and the best pitchers in the league will suddenly fear this offense a little more.
EXPECTATIONS
The Red Sox are flying high right now. Although if they are the team we want them to be they will be beating themselves up over those two losses in winnable situations to end those series. However, they have given themselves an outside shot at the division, and put themselves in a better position for the Wildcard game.
Going to New York will be tough, especially given the Red Sox are better at home than on the road. Therefore, this series needs to be a win. Ideally, it needs to be 3-0 to really put pressure on the Yankees, but that might be asking too much. The Red Sox offense will be key here. Can they get after Morton? Hopefully. Do they need to provide some run support for the last two games in the series? Most definitely. If they do not they could be facing a series defeat and being double-digit games behind the Yankees all over again.
It was so close to being the perfect series for the Red Sox down in Tampa. After taking the first two games of the series they just failed to pick up the third against Charlie Morton. Officially as of writing that game is under protest, but if I understand the rules correctly the result will stand. Whatever happens with that game, the Red Sox mentally need to move on and be ready for this massive series with the Yankees. Take three of these games and they have a shot in the division. Lose three and it is as good as over as far as the division is concerned.
The last time we saw Rick Porcello and Masahiro Tanaka face off it were in London and it did not go well in for either. Since that outing, both pitchers have struggled, with Tanaka having a 5.40 ERA and Porcello an 8.64 ERA in their starts since. There is every chance this first game could be high scoring.
Here are this season road ERAs for the Yankees pitchers. Tanaka: 5.40; Paxton: 4.78; German: 5.66; Sabathia: 6.59. The Red Sox should have plenty of opportunities to score runs in this series, and with some of the struggles their pitching staff has had they will need to.
So Cashner is not off to a great start with the Red Sox, having a 7.36 ERA through two starts. It is a small sample size so no need to panic yet, but this will be a tough test. In his career, Cashner has faced off with the Yankees 10 times. Over the course of 10 starts, he has a 2-5 record with a 3.96 ERA. However, in three starts in 2019 he has a 6.19 ERA and an 0-2 record. The Red Sox desperately need him to change that.
HITTERS
After a sluggish start, the Yankees offense has killed it in the last two months. In those first two months, they hit below .260 with a .450 slugging percentage. However, since the start of June, they have hit over .280 with a slugging percentage over .500. Since the All-Star break, they have hit .303 with 24 home runs and a .541 slugging percentage.
The Red Sox have had more success at home than on the road this season. Their batting average at Fenway Park is .277, compared to .267 on the road, with a .475 slugging percentage, compared to .451. They will need to be every bit at their home best if they are to go toe-to-toe with this Yankees offense.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
Pitching: This is the ultimate test of this pitching staff. Series like these are where heroes stand up and make themselves known. That is especially the case with arguably the Red Sox three weakest starters on the mound. There is a chance this bullpen will be tested to the max across this series, and how they cope will be very telling.
Hitting: I mentioned the Red Sox starters road ERA above and that will be key for the Red Sox. This season they have been better against relievers than starters, by a fairly significant margin. If they can get on top of the first couple of starters in this series they could do some real damage to this bullpen by the end of the series.
EXPECTATIONS
The Red Sox briefly got themselves tied for second place in the division. However, their loss to the Rays in the final game has left them trailing the Yankees by 11 games. Even if they win this series 3-1 they will only close up two games and just creep back under double-digits.
The Red Sox need to lay down a marker in this series. They will face the Yankees on the road next week and if they can carry a 3-1 or 4-0 victory out of this series then they could spring a real surprise next week. The only way back into this is likely to be small victories but closing up four or six games in these two series would really give them a shot heading into the final third of the season.
I was originally going to rip the Detroit Tigers and the rest of Major League Baseball. The Red Sox and Tigers still played after a 4 hour pre-game rain delay on Saturday. That left me baffled and frustrated.
How could an MLB team make their fans pick between two undesirable options? On one hand, a fan could choose to head home after paying for their ticket, wasting their money. The other option is waiting in the park for the game to start, which might not even be played that day.
Having their loyal fans make that choice is nothing sort of disrespectful. This could be many fans only game the entire season. Not to mention, the Tigers are not exactly World Series contenders, at 28-55 before play.
I was going to write how inconsiderate the Tigers and other MLB teams are to their own fans during rain delays. Organizations never refund purchases and also have no problem starting games late at night. They never once consider how their decisions worsen the fan’s viewing experience. Then I heard something interesting from the Tiger’s broadcast.
They said that anyone who bought a ticket to the game would receive a free ticket to a 2019 Tiger’s game. So I immediately needed to edit the topic of my article.
I will give Detroit credit for this awesome gesture as not every team would do this in the same situation. (*Cough Cough, John Henry, Cough*) It appears the Tigers will reward fans who left or stayed with the same deal of a free ticket. Good on the Tigers for paying back their most devoted fans.
However, this game highlights an area MLB needs to improve in, weather delay guidelines. Too many times fans are the ones most impacted by lousy weather. The customers either have to sit through the rain or go home without getting what they paid for. MLB needs to put the fans at the forefront when considering weather delays.
After tonight, it is clear MLB should set a limit on how long a rain delay can be. There simply has to be a cutoff. 4 hours is way too long to be waiting for a game that might be played on a later date. How long the delay can be is debatable, but it is clear MLB needs a set time limit.
There are other guidelines MLB should think about. For example, teams could do what the Tiger’s did today and compensate fans who bought tickets to a delayed or canceled game. MLB needs to remember that the fans should be the number one priority during weather delays, not the players, managers, or owners.
However, this is coming from the same sport who refuses to try and make the game more enjoyable for their customers. (Who doesn’t love watching Marcus Stroman take two and a half minutes in between pitches?) This move, however, seems so obvious even Major League Baseball would see the benefits and make the change. Right!?
Every time things are looking up for this team, they go and shoot themselves in the foot. The series against the Blue Jays wasn’t just bad, it was nearly a disaster. Only a late rally in Game 1 of the Blue Jays series prevented this from being a home sweep. Now with an 18-19 record at home, the Red Sox welcome a White Sox team containing one of the hottest young starters in the majors right now.
The series loss to the Blue Jays is on the pitchers. Sale gave up four runs in five innings, the bullpen allowed all eight in Game 2, and Porcello allowed five in six innings on Sunday. Yes, the offense failed to fire on Sunday, but they scored 14 runs in the first two games. To have seven runs scored, the starter to blank an opponent over five innings and lose is a disaster. In the same vein, Porcello simply cannot allow five runs to be scored and expect to win. 15 runs in three games should have been enough to win this series. The fact it was not lies with the rotation and the bullpen. Now they need to bounce back.
Giolito is reminding everyone in baseball why he was so highly touted as a prospect. The 24-year old pitcher has been superb in 2019, with a 2.74 ERA entering this start. In 85 1/3 innings, he has struck out a whopping 105 batters while walking 29. To put that into context; his 2019 K/9 is 10.97 and his BB/9 is 3.06, compared to career numbers prior to this season of 6.4 (K/9) and 4.3 (BB/9). It gets worse when you look at his splits, as he performs better on the road than at home, with a 2.49 ERA and a .180 batting average against away from home.
The counter to the good performances of Giolito is the struggles of Lopez. Another highly touted prospect, Lopez has a 6.23 ERA this season in 86 2/3 innings. Lopez’s struggles have come in the form of the home run, allowing 2.18 HR/9. He has been slightly better at preventing home runs on the road, but other numbers have been worse. His batting average against on the road is .308, and opponents slugging percentage is up at .573.
HITTERS
The Red Sox will be seeing two right-handed pitchers in this series, which is a promising situation for their offense. Against righties, the Red Sox have the highest batting average in the majors, the fourth highest wOBA, and the seventh best strikeout rate. Home runs have not been free-flowing, as they rank 13th in that category. However, they rank second in the majors in runs scored against righties, with 321 runs scored.
In stark contrast, the White Sox will find three left-handed pitchers waiting for them in Boston. The White Sox have seen the seventh-least amount of PA this season against lefties, and their success has been mixed. On one hand they rank ninth in the majors in batting average against lefties, but equally, they rank 26th when it comes to ISO, and 20th in slugging percentage.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
Pitching: Three lefties in one series is certainly interesting. In a way, it is a bad time for the Red Sox not to need their fifth starter, due to the trip to London, because Johnson looked good last time out. However, they now get to throw their best four pitchers at opponents for the next nine games. Most teams would kill to not need their fifth starter for the next two weeks. Now the Red Sox need their starters to step up and take advantage.
Hitting: This is the series where Mookie Betts is going to turn his form around. The Red Sox talisman has struggled in June, with a .213 batting average. However, with two righties lined up, and potentially a third, he has a chance to get right. Betts’ has a .280 batting average, and has hit 11 of his 12 home runs, off righties. The same goes for Devers, who is having his worst month, but has 10 of his 12 home runs off right-handed pitchers. Before a big series in London, the Red Sox need these two to get themselves back in form.
EXPECTATIONS
Right now at Fenway Park nothing is a given for the Red Sox. They have not won a home series in June, going 4-7. In fact, they have not won a series at home in over a month, with their last victorious series coming when the Colorado Rockies visited. At least one game in this series will be tough to win, with Lucas Giolito on the mound, but Chris Sale against Reynaldo Lopez should be a very winnable game.
The Red Sox are travelling to London in four days time to take on the Yankees. If they do not win two games in this series, there is a very real chance they could head to London down double-digits on their biggest rivals for this division. If they can take a game off Lucas Giolito Monday, then a series sweep, and the confidence that comes with it, will be there for the taking.
This weekend is one of my favorite as a Red Sox fan, culminating in Patriots Day. Hopefully this year, the Patriots Day series can inspire the Red Sox to turn their season around.
PITCHING MATCHUPS/SCHEDULE (TV)
4/12 Eduardo Rodriguez vs. David Hess (R) 7:10pm NESN
In what is becoming the weekly Chris Sale report, we enter another stage of this saga. Sale’s average fastball velocity was back at 92 mph, after being 89.9 in the previous start in Oakland. The results against Toronto still were not what we want to see, and the fastball still sits a couple of mph below his career average. Let’s see what Monday brings.
The Orioles enter this series after losing their last series 1-3 to the Athletics. Offensively they struggled in the last three games, averaging just 3.33 runs per game. Overall this season the Orioles rank 22nd in OBP, 21st in home runs and 21st in slugging percentage this season.
The Red Sox offense is continuing to heat up over the last few games. Now they face up against an Orioles pitching staff which ranks 29th in ERA, WHIP and batting average against.
None of the pitchers scheduled to start for the Orioles have much history against the Red Sox. The Oriole with the most appearances against the Red Sox is first baseman Chris Davis. In 595 PA against the Red Sox, he owns a .220 batting average, .299 OBP, .393 slugging percentage and 23 home runs.
Mitch Moreland went deep again in the first game of the Blue Jays series. Entering the second game of that series, he leads the Red Sox with four home runs on the season. With another three right-handed pitchers on the slate, he could play a big part once again in this series.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
The Bullpen: With a three run lead in the ninth on Tuesday Matt Barnes got the save opportunity, but after giving up a run the save was completed by Colten Brewer. It will be interesting to see who sees the next save opportunity. The smart money is likely on Ryan Brasier, but it is interesting that he did not get a shot on Tuesday.
Starting Pitching: There are still a lot of questions around this rotation, with all five starters having an ERA over five right now. After six games against the relatively slow starting Blue Jays and Orioles it would be good to see the rotation show some promising signs. Hector Velazquez was interesting in his spot start and could have a shot at the rotation if these struggles continue.
EXPECTATIONS
If the Red Sox can finish of the Blue Jays series with a win and then sweep the Orioles they could be close to .500. After starting 3-8 on the road, they need to at least win four these six games. They have already lost one, meaning they can only really afford one more loss in this home stand.
If they head into New York next Tuesday much worse than 7-10, then questions are really going to start to be raised. We are by no means too far into the season for this to turnaround. However, losing series to the Orioles and Blue Jays would be pretty concerning for a team with World Series ambitions.
The opening road trip from hell is over. Unfortunately, the Red Sox return home from that trip with a 3-8 record. However, they find the Toronto Blue Jays coming to town, who have also had their struggles so far this season.
4/11 Nathan Eovaldi vs. Aaron Sanchez (R) 7:10pm NESN
NOTABLE NUMBERS
The results were better for Chris Sale in his second start, but the way he got there was concerning. The hope was that Sale could improve on his 92.9 mph average fastball velocity from his first start. However, things actually got worse, as Sale averaged just 89.9 mph in his second start of the season in Oakland. He may have only given up one run, but he also only struck out one, compared to two walks.
The Blue Jays were 0-4 in their last series against the Cleveland Indians, largely thanks to their terrible offense. This season the Blue Jays offense ranks 27th in batting average, 29th in OBP, 27th in runs and 26th in slugging percentage.
The Red Sox offense heated up in their last series against the Diamondbacks, averaging seven runs per game. However, they go up against a team who have been pitching well. The Blue Jays are giving up an average of just 2.75 runs against (3rd) and a .194 batting average against (4th). In addition, they are allowing just 1.05 combined hits and walks per innings pitched. However, their schedule has consisted of the Tiger, Orioles and Indians, so this will be their toughest test to date.
Aaron Sanchez has faced off with the Sox 19 times, 11 times as a starter. In 71 innings against the Red Sox, he has a 4.06 ERA striking out 62 batters and a allowing a 1.282 WHIP. Shoemaker on the other hand has been strong against the Red Sox. He is 2-1, with 16 strikeouts in 15 innings and a 2.93 ERA.
Mitch Moreland is coming off an interesting series in Arizona. The left-handed slugger hit two home runs in nine ABs, but they were also his only two hits of the series. With two right-handed pitchers on the slate for this series, Moreland could be a crucial part of the Red Sox offense as they return home.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
The Bullpen: With Craig Kimbrel potentially returning to Fenway for the World Series ring ceremony, the Red Sox come home with a number of question about their bullpen still remaining. Colten Brewer gave up the game losing run on Saturday, before Ryan Brasier got the save on Sunday. Both Brasier and Matt Barnes have been really good this season, with neither giving up a run. However, with the Red Sox having given up so many runs early in games we have not had many chances to see these guys in high leverage situations.
Starting Pitching: After the hitters somewhat came alive in their last series, most of the Red Sox question remain with their pitching. We touched on Sale above, and he remains the biggest one to watch, both in terms of results and velocity. Eovaldi has given up nine earned runs in 10 innings, including four home runs. After a strong finish to last season, the Red Sox will be desperate to see Eovaldi get back on track.
EXPECTATIONS
This was never the way the season was supposed to start. 3-8 is not the end of the world, but it is obviously less than ideal. On the bright side, the team is healthy in the large majority. There are major concerns about the rotation, but we are looking at extremely small sample sizes. Two good starts for any of them and their numbers will look fine, if not back to the way we may have hoped when the season started.
The negatives are clear to see, but the positives should not be overlooked. The Red Sox are just 4.5 games back on the division leading Tampa Bay Rays. They are also just two games behind the Yankees, who have not been great out of the gate and are struggling with injuries. We are less than 7% of the way through the season.
There is a lot of baseball still to play, and one of the toughest parts of the schedule is in the rear view mirror.
After a mixed opening to the season in Seattle, the Red Sox head to Oakland to continue an 11 game road trip. Here is what to watch out for in this second of three opening road series.
PITCHING MATCHUPS/SCHEDULE (TV)
4/1 David Price vs Aaron Brooks (R) 10:07pm NESN
4/2 Chris Sale vs Mike Fiers (R) 10:07pm NESN
4/3 Nathan Eovaldi vs Marco Estrada (R) 10:07pm NESN
4/4 Eduardo Rodriguez vs Brett Anderson (L) 3:07pm NESN
NOTABLE NUMBERS
The biggest question mark in this series is going to be Chris Sale’s velocity. Thomas touched on it in his preview last week and his fears were somewhat realized. Sale’s fastball averaged 92.8 mph in Seattle on Opening Day. Last season he averaged below that just twice, the fourth game of the season (90.9) and the last (90.1). Last season on Opening Day his velocity was up at 94.9. If Sale’s velocity is low again in Oakland then serious question marks will start to be raised.
Due to the Opening Series in Japan, Mike Fiers and Marco Estrada will be making their third starts of the season. Fiers has struggled with a 5.00 ERA and a 5.71 FIP across nine innings. Estrada has fared better with a 2.45 ERA in his 11 innings. However, Estrada has managed just four strikeouts, compared to two home runs and has an alarming 5.49 FIP.
After a home run loaded Opening Series in Seattle, the Red Sox will not be pleased to see Khris Davis, who has already hit three home runs this season.
Eduardo Rodriguez will not be pleased to see a right-handed heavy Athletics lineup. He struck out just 24% of right-handed hitters he faced last season, and surrendered a 4.15 xFIP against them.
Expect to see J.D. Martinez have a strong series with three right-handed pitchers on the mound. In 2018, he had a 174 wRC+ against righties. Unusually for right-handed hitters, Martinez was stronger last season against righties than lefties.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
The Rotation: With the bullpen likely to remain a question mark until it has completely proven otherwise, a lot of pressure will fall on the rotation. Sale is obviously the biggest question mark but there are also questions surrounding Eovaldi and Rodriguez after their first starts.
Hitting Depth: There are no major worries around the hitters at this early stage. However, Nunez, Holt and Swihart had registered just one hit between them in the Sox first three games. With Dustin Pedroia on the injured list the Red Sox need their hitting depth to help them get off to a strong start.
EXPECTATIONS
Many people saw the Opening Series as a disadvantage to the Athletics and Mariners, due to the amount of travel. However, at this stage of the season it is actually an advantage. Those two teams had to ramp up their season preparation a week earlier than everyone else and are therefore slightly ahead of the rest of the league. Travelling to both of those teams in the first eight days of the season is a tough assignment for the Red Sox. The Sox also come into this game having gone 1-2 on the road in Oakland, and 2-4 overall against them last season.
A three series road trip to start the season is really tough for any team. The pros of it are that it gets some of the travelling out of the way early. However, the Red Sox would ideally want to come out of these first eight games around .500, meaning they will need to at least split this four game series in Oakland.
The build up to the start of the baseball season is always a lot of fun for many reasons. Maybe you love fantasy baseball, or maybe you just love the sounds, smells and feelings that come with baseball. The start of the season brings something for everyone, and that includes the gamblers among us. Last week as a staff we looked at some of our MVP and Cy Young picks. If you are looking to have a bet on those markets you can find our feelings there. Instead I will focus on the season win totals and try to identify some juicy over/under bets for you to take advantage of.
I will start with the Red Sox but there is not really a bet to be had. The starting line is set at 94.5, a whopping 13.5 wins less than they had last season. However, when you look closer at elements such as the Pythagorean win total (103) and their record in one score games (25-14) there is room for regression in that total. Add in the lack of a lock down closer and a win total in the mid-90s is a very likely outcome.
Houston Astros Over 96.5
It may seem aggressive to project any team to win more than 96.5 games, but the Astros have the talent to do it. They are perhaps the best all-around team in the American League and their division rivals often blow hot and cold. Last season they won 103 games, but their Pythagorean total was even higher at 108. Additionally, that record came despite just being .500 in one run games. The combination of the Pythagorean total and the one-run record suggest to me the Astros could get over 100 wins once again this season.
Milwaukee Brewers Under 86.5
2019 is a fascinating season for the darlings of the 2018 season. The Brewers stunned the league and nearly made it all the way to the NLCS. However, the fact that were a surprise package means there are question marks for 2019. Their rotation lacks both ace level upside and struggles for depth. They also play in a division which has quality from 1-5, which could make repeating their 96 win season tough. Equally their Pythagorean win total was five lower at 91, and their record in one run games was a whopping 33-19. Both of those numbers scream regression, and combined with my other concerns I think the Brewers slip back to a .500 baseball team this season.
Los Angeles Dodgers Over 93.5
Another super aggressive projection for a relatively high win total. However, they were actually relatively unlucky to only win 92 games, as their Pythagorean win total was up at 102 wins. No team in the majors had a bigger difference between those two totals. The Dodgers have lost some quality offensively, but they still have a ton of talent. In addition, their rotation has both the high end skill and the depth that you want from a major contender. The Dodgers will be right there come playoff conversation time this season.
Baltimore Orioles Under 59.5
To end let’s bring this back to the AL East, the 2018 last placed team overall. The Orioles finished the season with 47 wins and they may actually have been lucky to get that many. The Orioles won an incredible 70% of their one run games in 2018. If that regressed back towards 50% this season they could struggle to reach 45 wins. However, they were slightly hard done by last season if their Pythagorean win total of 55 is to be believed. The issue there is that even if that was true they would still have been four wins below their over/under this season. A team that was that bad, and actually lost talent during the season, is a prime candidate to be bad again.
With the baseball season arriving, our baseball writers have come together to predict the 2019 award winners. In this article we each choose the winner of the MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year and Manager of the Year Awards for the coming season. We will follow shortly with a second article predicting the division winners and postseason results for the coming season.
American League Most Valuable Player
Thom Howland: Jose Ramirez hit .270 last year with an unlucky 25% hit rate. With his top tier power, peak age, and a Cleveland team gunning for another AL Central crown, the time is ripe for his MVP closeup. Dark horse candidate – Jose Abreu
Scott Frizzell: It is just so hard to pick against Mike Trout. The new $430 million dollar man has finished in the top two every year of his career except one, when he finished fourth after missing six weeks of action. Dark horse candidate – Andrew Benintendi
John Principe: Coming off a year that didn’t end in him winning the MVP, I fully expect Mike Trout to again put up his insane numbers. He’s the closest thing in sports to a perennial lock, and is my pick to stay healthy and win his third MVP. Dark horse candidate – Matt Chapman
Ben Rolfe: Yes, it is the boring pick, but Mike Trout is so far above anyone else in baseball right now it is incredible. If we ignore his small rookie appearance then Trout’s average WAR is 9.2 per year and his numbers are something out of a video game. Dark horse candidate – Luke Voit
Mike Quilty: Mike Trout may be the favorite, but I think Alex Bregman will have a huge year for Houston.
Mike Trout is always a safe bet to be near the top.
National League Most Valuable Player
Thom Howland: Kris Bryant, the former MVP, is over the injuries that sapped his power last year. The Cubs are being counted out, and he will be at the center of their resurgence. Dark horse candidate – Ronald Acuna
Scott Frizzell: Paul Goldschmidt is leaving the desert for St. Louis this season, and I think he will put up his usual big numbers while helping lead the Cardinals back to the postseason for the first time since 2015. After a dreadful first two months last year, Goldy batted .330 with 26 home runs and a 1.022 OPS from June 1st on. Dark horse candidate – Ronald Acuna
John Principe: Bryce Harper is coming off an okay year, but a great contract, what’s in store for him? The new Philly slugger, to me, is poised to breakout again and have his best season since his MVP year in 2015. Look for Bryce to put up another season with an OPS over 1.000, carry his Phils to an NL East title, and win MVP while he’s at it. Dark horse candidate – Ronald Acuna
Ben Rolfe: Nolan Arenado is one of the best fielders at his position and he hits in Coors Field, which always means his hitting numbers will be right up there. His best chance is if he can lead the Rockies back to the playoffs. Dark horse candidate – Jesus Aguilar
Mike Quilty: Paul Goldschmidt had never won the award before but has been close multiple times as a D-Back. After a trade to St. Louis a change of scenery may be just what he needs.
Paul Goldschmidt joins a new team for the first time in his career.
American League Cy Young
Thom Howland: The all-time MLB leader in K/9 and K/BB will put it all together this year. After 6 straight Top 5 AL Cy Young finishes, Chris Sale will finally gain the top spot in 2019. Dark horse candidate – Eduardo Rodriguez
Scott Frizzell: Coming off a fantastic first season in Houston, I will choose Gerrit Cole to win the Cy Young this year. There is no one candidate this year that stands out to me. Dark horse candidate – Shane Bieber
John Principe: Despite struggling in the second half of 2018, I expect a massive year out of Jose Berrios. The bats are a little better behind him, which should work to his advantage. He’s a nasty pitcher with devastating off-speed stuff and will have a good chance to finish at least top 5 in Cy Young voting. Dark horse candidate – Mike Clevinger
Ben Rolfe: The drop in velocity for Chris Sale has me scared, and Gerrit Cole looked so dominant at times last year. He will be a crucial part of a playoff bound rotation and could win 20 games this season.
Mike Quilty: Chris Sale has come in the top five in each of the last six years. Injury last season ended his first shot at the award as he was pitching well. I think Sale will have an amazing year in 2019 and win his first Cy Young.
Chris Sale always finishes in the top five, but can he finally win the coveted award?
National League Cy Young
Thom Howland: Noah Syndergaard went 4-1 with two shutouts in September of last year. Finally healthy after years of nagging injuries, and with an improved Mets team behind him, the promise of his 97+ MPH fastball and devastating off-speed stuff will bring home the NL Cy Young in 2019. Dark horse candidate – Luis Castillo
Scott Frizzell: I tried Noah Syndergaard last season and instead his teammate won the award. I’m going him again. Syndergaard has the stuff to win it, reaching into the upper-90’s with his fastball with a devastating slider thrown around 92. Dark horse candidate – Walker Buehler
John Principe: Walker Buehler came up and absolutely dominated last year. With Kershaw ready to pass the load (and possibly ace status) on to Buehler, this could be a huge breakout year for him in establishing himself as a premier pitcher in the NL. Dark horse candidate – Kyle Freeland
Ben Rolfe: Patrick Corbin moves to a rotation which is known for pitching success on the back of a great 2018. Pitching alongside Max Scherzer gives a perfect person for him to be compared to all season in order to win this award. Dark horse candidate – Robbie Ray
Mike Quilty: Max Scherzer has won three times already, and had a career high last season with 300 strikeouts. He went 18-7 with a 2.53 era and probably would’ve won his fourth if not for Jacob deGrom and his historic season.
“Thor” has electric stuff, but has had some injury troubles.
American League Rookie of the Year
Thom Howland: As a 19-year-old, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. rocketed from Rookie Ball all the way to AAA last year. Along the way he managed a .381 average, 20 Home Runs, and 29 Doubles. He’ll be delayed by a few weeks, but this 20-year-old will rake once he makes the show. Dark horse candidate – Josh James
Scott Frizzell: Eloy Jimenez could have a fantastic rookie season, but it’s hard to go against Vladimir Guerrero Jr. after he hit .402 at AA last season. This could shape up similarly to the Ronald Acuna vs Juan Soto race for Rookie of the Year last season. Dark horse candidate – Josh James
John Principe: Possibly the easiest category of all, Vlad Jr. is poised for greatness regardless of when his call-up comes. He’ll be in the show this season, hopefully by the middle of May at the latest. Even with his competitors getting possibly an extra month to pad their stats, Vlad should easily win this award. Dark horse candidate – Yusei Kikuchi
Ben Rolfe: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is not a particularly fun pick, but I cannot see who else it will be. Guerrero is so talented and in a hitter friendly park, he will have every chance to put up huge numbers. Dark horse candidate – Yusei Kikuchi
Mike Quilty: Vladimir Guerrero Jr, 19-year-old son of HOF Vladimir Guerrero has dominated every level he’s played at to this point. He’s a great talent with great lineage and will now showcase his talent in the big leagues.
Vlad Jr. is the only unanimous choice.
National League Rookie of the Year
Thom Howland: Fernando Tatis Jr. is another precocious 20-year-old. He hit .286 with 16 HR and 22 Doubles last year in AA. The Padres are moving the newly minted $300 Million Dollar Manny Machado to third base so Tatis Jr. can play every day. Dark horse candidate – Pete Alonso
Scott Frizzell: Nick Senzel keeps getting moved around the field due to being blocked at the big league level all over the infield. His bat will play anywhere though. It looks like his new home will be center field for the Reds. Although I think Pete Alonso might slug 30 home runs for the Mets, I believe Senzel will have a more rounded game, batting around .300 with 15-20 home runs and stolen bases. Dark horse candidate – Chris Paddack
John Principe: The opposite of the AL, this race seems wide open to me. With no clear favorite, the Mets slugger Pete Alonso is my choice. Alonso has a brilliant eye, and lots of pop in his bat and should have a chance to play first base right away for the Mets. Dark horse candidate – Nick Senzel
Ben Rolfe: Anyone with Nick Senzel’s talent who gets to play in a hitter friendly park is always going to have a great shot of success. Add in the highlight plays he seems to be capable of making in center field and this could be a fun player to watch this season. Dark horse candidate – Chris Paddack
Mike Quilty: If Alex Reyes can finally stay healthy, he has some of the most electric stuff in the entire sport.
Nick Senzel was drafted 2nd overall in 2016.
American League Manager of the Year
Thom Howland: The Angels are an afterthought in the AL playoff picture. The A’s funky stadium and Billy Beane’s witchcraft will run out, and Brad Ausmus will have the Angels in the playoffs for the first time since 2014. Dark horse candidate – Kevin Cash
Scott Frizzell: I like Thom’s pick of Brad Ausmus. Mike Scioscia had gone stale and in need of replacing, the fresh face of Ausmus will give the club an extra jolt this season. Although their pitching staff is questionable, their lineup is looking rock solid. Dark horse candidate – Rocco Baldelli
John Principe: After being named a finalist in 2018 due to his innovation and his ability to do lots with very little, Kevin Cash should take the next step and win this year. There’s always the possibility of a team exceeding expectations (i.e. 2018 Athletics) and that manager taking the award, but for now Cash seems like the safest bet. Dark horse candidate – Rocco Baldelli
Ben Rolfe: Rick Renteria could have a perfect storm of young talented players starting to reach their peak and a weak division. The White Sox could push the Indians deep this season and even not making the playoffs that would be enough to get Renteria in consideration for the award. Dark horse candidate – Rocco Baldelli
Mike Quilty: Call me a homer but I’m going with Alex Cora
Can Brad Ausmus lead the Angels to the playoffs in his first season at the helm?
National League Manager of the Year
Thom Howland: Bud Black has two top-five MVP possibilities in Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon. They have promising starters in Jon Gray, German Marquez, and Kyle Freeland. Black will help their pitching and lead them to the NL Playoffs, despite being given a slim 17.5% chance of doing so. Dark horse candidate – Dave Martinez
Scott Frizzell: Last year I said the Phillies would surprise people and hang in the race before ultimately fading. This year, they will win the NL East, and with it Gabe Kapler will take home the Manager of the Year Award. Dark horse candidate – David Bell
John Principe: David Bell has a great opportunity in front of him in his first year leading the Reds. A young lineup that has already proved itself may now have some pitching behind it to support this team. A lot of people have the Reds as the breakout team of 2019, myself included. If they can push themselves into playoff contention in that division, or even over .500, it’s going to be hard not giving this award to Bell. Dark horse candidate – Dave Martinez
Ben Rolfe: This is another case of a perfect storm. Gabe Kapler took a lot of stick for some of his decisions last season. However, now he has a young rotation and an incredibly talented lineup at his fingertips. This team could be in contention for the most wins in the NL. Dark horse candidate – Bud Black
Mike Quilty: I think Dave Roberts will get the Dodgers back to the World Series and have one of the best records. After losing one of his key players, that could be enough to net him this award.
The Baseball season is now just around the corner. We are starting to see pitchers throw more innings, and hitters see more time at the plate in Spring Training. The Red Sox season kicks off in a fraction over two weeks time (15 days) on the road in Seattle. Therefore, let’s carry on our series projecting how the Red Sox hitters will do at the plate. In the last couple of weeks we have looked at J.D. Martinez and Mookie Betts. Today we look at Andrew Benintendi.
Mr. Consistent
Unlike Martinez and Betts, Benintendi is not the type of hitter who will make headlines with his hitting. However, what he offers is consistent hitting across the board, with just enough of everything to keep everyone happy. In fact the last two years have looked extremely similar for Benintendi, right down to the number of plate appearances.
2018 did see Benintendi take a slight dip in his power numbers compared to 2017, from 20 home runs to 16. Interestingly, last season he actually increased his average exit velocity and barrel % over 2017. The likely reason his power numbers dipped is due to slight decrease in his launch angle. Usually, you would like to see those numbers come back up, but the results of that launch angle change were seen elsewhere.
Getting on Base
Last season saw Benintendi increase his batting average from .271 to .290. That is an increase that is absolutely worth losing a handful of home runs. The really good news is that the increase was not a fluke. Benintendi’s expected batting average was .282 last season, slightly lower than the final output, but not a number which suggests major regression. A report from the Boston Herald suggested that Benintendi may focus on batting average even more this year, even if it comes at the expense of power.
In addition, Benintendi backed up his solid 10.6% walk rate in 2017 with a 10.7% number in 2018. While it only puts him 34th among qualified hitters, it combines really nicely with that batting average. In 2018, Benintendi ranked 29th in on base percentage, one of three Red Sox hitters in the top 30. His ability to get on base consistently is why many project him to hit leadoff.
Leadoff Hitter?
Hitting in the number one spot is not for everyone. We have seen some hitters struggle with the pressure of being the first man up for their team. However, when Benintendi was asked to hit leadoff in 2018 he thrived. In a small sample size of 97 plate appearances, Benintendi had a .322 batting average a .381 OBP. His walk rate was down slightly, but that was replaced and by getting on base more consistently with his bat.
Interestingly, despite having less than sixth of his plate appearances in the leadoff spot, Benintendi actually hit nearly a third of his home runs last season there. The Herald report suggests that is not a trend we will see continuing this season, but it is worth noting.
One reason that Benintendi may be changing his approach to become a leadoff hitter is because of his record hitting with the bases empty. Last season, Benintendi returned a .243 batting average when at the plate with no one on base. That is in contrast to a .350 batting average with men on base, and a .338 return with men in scoring position. If Benintendi is to hold down the leadoff spot, he will need to improve on that split in 2019.
Running Wild?
Another element of Benintendi’s game which has been consistent the last two years has been his base stealing. Benintendi has attempted 25 and 24 steals respectively over the last two seasons. He has been successful on 20 and 21. His over 80% conversion rate on stolen bases comes despite ranking 212th in the majors in sprint speed last season. For context, that placed him in the 68th percentile of major league players. Above average, but not by much.
How Benintendi, and the Red Sox, approach base stealing will be interesting now that he is in the leadoff spot. On one hand you have a player who has had success on the base paths. On the other hand, his relative lack of speed comparatively could be a reason we see him running less. There is also the case of whether it is worth the risk of running Benintendi into potential outs when he is hitting in front of two of the most productive hitters in baseball. How incredibly stupid would everyone look if Benintendi was thrown out at second, only for Betts or Martinez to crush the next ball out of the park?
Given the success rate from the last two years you would expect to see Benintendi given the opportunity to steal bases this season. If he has issues then maybe the Red Sox rethink that, either mid season or for 2020. If the Red Sox do allow Benintendi to run at similar rate, then the extra plate appearances from leading off could mean that he has a shot to steal 25 bases. If they let him run a little more from the leadoff position, which they did last year, then 30 stolen bases could legitimately be on the cards for Benintendi.
Overall Production
Hitting largely first or second in the order last year, Benintendi returned 103 runs and 87 RBI. The switch to leadoff is likely to see those numbers slant even further to the runs side in 2019. A rough projection on his return would still be a combined 190, but more in the region of 115 runs compared to 75 RBI. Usually we can see leadoff hitters struggle for RBI, but the bottom of the Red Sox order has enough talent that Benintendi should still see plenty of opportunities to drive in runs.
Therefore, a final projection for Benintendi is likely to be somewhere in the region of 12-15 home runs, 115 runs, 75 RBI, a .290-.300 batting average and 25-30 stolen bases. Again, not the headline numbers of his two superstar teams mates, but an extremely good return from a player who seems to be willing to put team goals above personal glory.
