Tag Archives: MLB

The Top Right Fielders Long-Term

Right field is a very top heavy position. Not knowing yet how the Yankees will utilize their two sluggers, they both get included in right field as that’s where they have played previously. There is also a good chance they both play right field this season, rotating between there and DH. After a group of four superstars, the position has a steep drop-off. Who helps round out the top 10 for the best right fielders to have for the long haul?

1. Bryce Harper

Harper may not have been a consistent superstar to this point, but he is still only 25 years old. Harper has also put up superstar numbers for two of the last three seasons now while healthy. With his upside, and still being only 25, it is hard to argue against him in the top spot.

One of the most hyped phenoms of all-time, Harper broke in to the Major Leagues at the age of 19. Although it took a few years for him to achieve star numbers, he was good immediately. He hit 20 homers in each of his first two seasons and won the Rookie of the Year Award in 2012. Harper truly broke out in 2015 at just 22 years old. That season he won the MVP Award after leading the league in home runs, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. He batted .330 with a .460/.649/1.109 slash line, showing the world his immense upside. Although he “slumped” to an .814 OPS the next year, Harper bounced back last season before getting injured. He again had an OPS over 1.000 while batting .319 with 29 home runs over 420 at-bats.

The biggest concern with Harper’s productivity moving forward may be health. Harper has now missed a relatively large amount of time in half of his six Major League seasons. When healthy, Harper should threaten 40 home runs with a near 1.000 OPS for years to come.

2. Giancarlo Stanton

Stanton is another superstar right fielder who has struggled with injuries. Stanton has missed significant time in four of his Major League seasons. Despite all the missed time, Stanton’s 267 career home runs place him in the top 10 for most home runs through the age of 27. That number is more than Hank Aaron, Barry Bonds, Willie Mays and Babe Ruth. Imagine how many Stanton would have if not for the injuries. Heck, the last couple years he got hurt were fluke injuries. For his career, he has averaged 44 home runs per 162 games played.

In 2015, at the time of his beaning, Stanton was on pace for a 50 home run season. Last year he achieved it for real, bashing a league high 59 home runs. Now, leaving Miami, Stanton gets to play in a hitter’s park instead of a pitcher’s park. If he stays healthy, Stanton could see a couple more 50 home run seasons in his future. Health is the key for the man who hits the ball harder than anyone I have seen.

Stanton won’t be taking aim at this ugly sculpture anymore. (Getty Images)

3. Aaron Judge

Personally, I think we just saw Aaron Judge’s career year, but after what he accomplished as a rookie, it’s hard to put him lower than three. Judge never hit all that well in the minors, posting a high of 20 home runs in 2015. He also only batted better than .280 once, back in his first season. Yet, his first year in the bigs and Judge batted .284 with a league leading 52 home runs. Strange how things work out sometimes. Judge also led the league in walks, 127, and strike outs, 208. Judge then struck out 27 times in 13 postseason games. To keep his average up, he will certainly have to cut back on his strike outs.

Diving into his numbers, 25.9% of Aaron Judge’s fly balls traveled for home runs. That is an insanely high rate, as the league average is 9.6%. I have to think that number will come down, and probably below 20%. As for his strike out rate, which was higher than 30%, that definitely will need to improve for a repeat performance. A .357 BABIP, which places him in the top 10, helped him to his .284 average despite all the strike outs.

Now, all this isn’t saying Aaron Judge is going to be a bad player. I am merely pointing out his underlying numbers which tend to show he won’t be as good moving forward. If Judge drops to a .250 batting average, with the way he walks he will still have better than a .350 on-base percentage.

4. Mookie Betts

I would not be surprised if Betts provided more value moving forward than some guys ahead of him on my list. Coming off a “down season” it is hard to justify putting him higher than 4th. He is easily the best fielder of this bunch though and he was an MVP candidate two seasons ago. Betts also has the most speed of anyone to this point, giving him arguably the most well-rounded game of the group.

Betts strikes out far less than the average player, striking out in only 11.8% of his career plate appearances. That number has been right round 11% in back to back seasons now. Assuming his BABIP normalizes, he should bounce back to closer to the player he was two years ago. That season, Betts had 214 base hits on his way to a .318 batting average. He also hit 31 home runs, 42 doubles and stole 26 bases as he finished second to Mike Trout for the American League MVP Award. He didn’t benefit from a high BABIP (.320). But last season, Betts’ BABIP dropped all the way down to .268. He still hit 24 home runs and 46 doubles though, while once again stealing 26 bases. With a return to normalcy, Betts should be around the .300 mark again this season.

As for his defense, Betts has won two straight Gold Glove Awards while posting a 5.4 dWAR. He has saved more than 30 defensive runs above average in both seasons, totaling 63 between the seasons. His 31 last year were 13 more than any other right fielder had. At 25 years old, Betts should be an all-around star for years to come.

Boston Red Sox right fielder Mookie Betts hits a double against the Seattle Mariners during the sixth inning at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

5. Domingo Santana

This is where the position drops off, though Santana is still a good player. Given a chance to start for the first time last season, Santana hit 30 home runs. Not only that, Santana exhibited the ability to draw a walk, walking 73 times. This gave Santana an excellent .371/.505/.875 slash line. The on-base percentage placed him 4th among all right fielders and the slugging percentage was 6th. Not bad for a first full season.

Santana always exhibited ability, twice hitting over 20 home runs in the minors and another time posting a .999 OPS. He was a big piece of the Astros trade to acquire Mike Fiers and Carlos Gomez in 2015 for the stretch run. Playing half a season in the bigs in 2016, Santana hit 11 home runs and posted a .792 OPS. Yes, he was much better this past season, but it’s not like the season came out of nowhere. Also, young guys are supposed to improve, right? The ability is real, if anything drops some it will be his batting average after he benefited from a .363 BABIP this past year.

6. Nicholas Castellanos

After being a third baseman his whole career, Castellanos will call right field his home this season. He played 20 games there late last year to see if he could handle it. How he performs there is yet to be determined. As for the bat, that will play in right. Castellanos made Baseball America’s top 100 list four times, twice placing in the top 25. He then spent his first full season in the majors at the age of 22. It’s not a surprise it took him a few years to start producing, but he has now had two straight excellent seasons at the dish.

Castellanos took a big step forward two years ago, batting .285 with 18 home runs and an .827 OPS. Despite a slow start last season, Castellanos hit a career high 26 home runs and led the league with 10 triples. The numbers look sustainable, as his extra base hit percentage and home run rate have held steady the last two seasons. Castellanos has also improved his strike out rate in back to back years. Turning 26 in a couple of days, Castellanos should be entering his prime.

7. Andrew McCutchen

McCutchen has the superstar name, and certainly has been one, but he is on the wrong side of 30 now. His game has shown obvious signs of decline as he no longer has the speed to steal many bases or to play center field. McCutchen looks like he will play primarily right field for the first time in his career this season as he makes the move to San Francisco.

McCutchen may not be an MVP candidate anymore, but he still has a good bat. At 31, he isn’t so ancient that we should be expecting him to continue to rapidly decline. He still should have a few good seasons left in him. He isn’t the .300 hitter he was from 2012-2014, falling short of that mark in each of the last three seasons. However, he did bat .279 with 28 home runs last season. He probably will provide more value on defense as well playing in right field. He posted negative defensive value playing center in each of the last four seasons. However, McCutchen posted positive value in a 13 game stint in right field last year.

McCutchen will call San Francisco his home after spending his first 9 seasons in Pittsburgh.

8. Jay Bruce

Bruce will join McCutchen as a 31 year old shortly after the season begins. Although the age does him no favors in my long-term articles, it’s by no means a death knell. There is no reason why he can’t continue hitting into his mid-thirties at least. He ultimately may find himself moved to first base, a position he has played a little of before.

Bruce is a fairly one-dimensional slugger. Although he isn’t allergic to walks, he doesn’t walk too often. He doesn’t hit for a high average, he doesn’t steal bases, he mostly just slugs home runs. At least he seems to be a pretty good player again. From 2010-2013, Bruce batted .262 and averaged 30 home runs per year. He then had two very poor seasons, batting .222 without posting any real value. However, he is back to being the player he was before 2014 it seems. Bruce has hit .252 the last two seasons while hitting 69 home runs. He is coming off a career high 36 home runs last season. He looks like he should be a .250 30 home run hitter for a couple more seasons.

9. Yasiel Puig

Puig is a polarizing player, both on and off the field. He looked like a future star his first two seasons, batting .305 with an .888 OPS. His arm in right field was a weapon as well as his bat. Then his play fell off the next two seasons, batting just .260 with a .748 OPS. He hit only 22 home runs combined those two years and was sent to the minors in 2016. His attitude was considered to be a problem both on and off the field.

Still just 26 last season, Puig’s play rebounded. He still hit just .263, but he clubbed a career high 28 home runs. Puig posted an .833 OPS, his best in three seasons. His play in the outfield was arguably the best of his career, putting up 18 defensive runs saved above average. Runners don’t test his arm like they used to, as Puig had just 4 assists. But he’s still holding runners, and he only made one error.

So, which Puig will we see moving forward? Can he continue to be a force on the field or will his play regress again? Puig also carries the character concerns, meaning he could affect team chemistry even when going well. Still just 27 years old, Puig has plenty of time to turn his career around.

10. Nomar Mazara

Mazara was just 20 years old when he made the majors, and he has held his own. The number 21 prospect according to Baseball America in 2016, Mazara batted .266 and hit 20 home runs. Last season, he had his peaks and valleys, showing all the streakiness one might expect from a 22 year old. When all was said and done he had hit 22 home runs, doubled 30 times and driven in 101 runners. His average dropped a bit, while his other rate stats saw incremental gains.

I believe there is more in him waiting to show the world. He was a big prospect brought to the majors at such a young age. Still just 22 at the start of the year, Mazara has plenty of development left. He’s got plenty of power in his 6’4″ 215 pound frame, and I expect his skills to become more toned and consistent. I expect Mazara to post career highs across the board this season, except maybe runs batted in.

Honorable Mentions:

Steven Souza Jr., Avisail Garcia, Mitch Haniger, Gerardo Parra, David Peralta, Stephen Piscotty, Gregory Polanco, Josh Reddick, Scott Schebler, Randal Grichuk

Feature picture from Federalball.com

Bidding Adieu to Yawkey Way

Leave a reply

Wave goodbye to the past; moving on to…the past? Red Sox file a petition to the City of Boston to change Yawkey Way’s name back to Jersey Street.

We all know the reputation that Boston holds when it comes to the topic of racism. Unfortunate, because being of Cuban decent I love Boston. I would live there for the rest of my life if I could. The people of Boston have been about as open armed and welcoming every single time I have gone. To call the City of Boston racist as a whole is the incorrect take. The fact is, racism still exists everywhere in this country, and it is something that needs to be acknowledged. With the most recent story that came to surface in 2017, when Adam Jones was subjected to racial slurs while manning center field. To reiterate, baseball is an all-encompassing, multi cultural sport, and a celebration of many cultures coming together to play the greatest game ever.

How Does Yawkey Fit into This?

So where does Yawkey Way, or more specifically Tom Yawkey, come into play here? Well a background check on Tom Yawkey will reveal that his reputation is extensively shrouded in controversy and discrimination. Coined by Jackie Robinson (who got turned down by the Red Sox after a tryout in 1945) as “one of the most bigoted guys in baseball”.

The Red Sox at the helm of Yawkey were the last Major League team to integrate, when they promoted their first African-American player by the name of Pumpsie Green. Granted, at one point all teams were non-integrated and this was considered “the norm”. However, the fact that Yawkey deliberated for so long to include African-Americans into his Major League team says a lot. Thus, naming a street after himself in 1977 truly coincides with Robinson’s view on the former owner. He was a discriminate, egotistic, selfish person. He should be used as an example of how not to treat others in everyday life, let alone the sports world.

Photo Credit: Getty Images (2013)

The Red Sox have petitioned to change the name back to Jersey Street, which is what the famous street was called before Yawkey Way. To be honest, I’m not so sure of this move. Not changing it from Yawkey Way, but changing it back to a street name that was there since John I. Taylor bought the grounds in 1911 is not much of an improvement. In other words, the name Jersey Street was around for 66 years, and at least 54 of those years were during America’s segregation period. In a way, it also represents discrimination in a way that the name Yawkey Way has.

Possible Replacement Names

I have thought about this for a while and have come across great replacements for the street name. But I (as well as Jared Carrabis of Barstool Sports) cannot think of a better way to honor the Red Sox and Fenway Park than to name the street after Ted Williams, who took a break during the prime of his baseball career to serve in WWII and the Korean War. Williams, a recipient of the Presidential Medal of Freedom, is the best player the club has seen in its 110 year history. He’s a true legend of the game. Looking at the bigger picture rather than the game of baseball, he fought for our country, our freedom and our honor. In short, to have a tunnel named after him simply isn’t enough. It is something that should have been done decades ago rather than now.

This is not the be-all and end-all decision that will wipe racism from this country forever. However, it is definitely a step in the right direction. Could these fixes be improved further? Absolutely. But that’s the thing- it is important to keep the fight against racism continual and on-going. Also I admit, this move seems like something that the Red Sox were forced to do after the Adam Jones incident occurred. I guess late is better than never. As the famous Martin Luther King Jr. once said “The time is always right to do what is right”. And this is something that should be engraved into, not only Bostonians, but to everyone around the world.

Featured Photo Credit: Boston Magazine (2012)

Can the Red Sox Win with Spot Starts?

Leave a reply

Starting pitching is one of the most injury-riddled positions in baseball. The throwing motion itself is inherently unnatural, so injuries plague the position. Last week, Red Sox management announced that both Eddie Rodriguez and Steven Wright are unlikely to be ready for Opening Day. This means the Sox will be relying on spot starters entering the season, which begs the question: can the Red Sox win with spot starts?

Can the Red Sox Win with Spot Starts?

How Long Will They Need Him?

This article isn’t going to be about who the spot starter will be – that’s already been analyzed here – but more about how the team around him will perform. E-Rod’s offseason knee surgery has been public news for a while, and he’s expected to be back in early to late May.

Wright, however, seems to be further along than E-Rod. He’s already been throwing off flat surfaces, and is expected to transition to throwing off a mound within a week. Knee injuries are tricky, but let’s conservatively assume he’ll be ready in a bit under two months time.

With that conservative estimate, the Red Sox will likely need to use their fifth starter for three or four trips through the rotation. Let’s take a look at what those starts might look like.

First Run Through Rotation: the Miami Marlins

Whoever the fifth starter is won’t have to worry about Giancarlo Stanton…yet

Image credit: New York Times

The Red Sox begin their season with six straight games, so the spot starter will be needed early. However, his first start will be against arguably the worst team in baseball.

The Miami Marlins are a certified mess. The team is under new ownership and is in full rebuild mode. After finishing 2017 with an underwhelming 77-85 record, the Marlins have gotten considerably worse. They sent away National League MVP Giancarlo Stanton as well as All-Star caliber players in Dee Gordon and Marcell Ozuna, just to name a few.

This team is so talent-barren that the Pawtucket Red Sox could probably beat them. It really doesn’t matter if Brian Johnson, Hector Velasquez, or a random fan in the stands is the starting pitcher. The Red Sox are winning this one.

Second Run Through Rotation: Not Needed

Five games later, the Red Sox are scheduled to play the New York Yankees. The Yankees are the primary threat to the Red Sox chances of winning the AL East, and every game matters. However, even though the Yankees are five games later, the Sox don’t necessarily have to pitch their fifth starter.

The schedule gets a bit easier after starting the season with six straight games. The Sox have April 4^th off, and then play every other day until facing the Yankees on April 10^th. The Sox are currently set to have David Price, Drew Pomeranz, and Rick Porcello pitch in the three-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Team ace Chris Sale is scheduled to pitch the final game of the six-game opening stretch on April 3^rd. This leaves Price, Pomeranz, and Porcello to handle the Rays. Thanks to the rest days, the Sox could skip the fifth starters turn in the rotation altogether.

This will almost certainly happen, as doing this wouldn’t force Sale to throw on short rest. On the contrary, Sale will actually be on a full week of rest due to all the days off. The Red Sox will have their top three pitchers set to face the rival Yankees, and it would be foolish to play a spot starter over Sale, Price, or Pomeranz.

The Next Two Runs Through the Rotation

Following their cozy stretch of three rest games in three days, things get hectic for the Red Sox. Boston’s set to play in 13 straight games, starting with their series against the Yankees. This type of run is very abnormal for April, and the spot starter will certainly be needed during this run.

It’s tough to imagine Wright being out any longer than the fourth run through the rotation, so this should be the last time the spot starter is needed. As things currently stand, the fifth starter is set to face the Baltimore Orioles and the Los Angeles Angels.

While neither one of these teams is in the elite level of, say, the Houston Astros, both teams are certainly capable of beating Boston. Each team boasts a solid group of talent led by one superstar. The Orioles have Manny Machado and the Angels have Mike Trout. Both players can dominate the best of the best, never mind the likes of the spot starters.

That being said, don’t chalk these two games up as losses. All three potential spot starters have shown that they can keep games competitive, and that’s all they need to do. As long as they don’t get shelled, the Red Sox team around them could easily be enough to steal a few wins.

Just Make It to the Bullpen

Craig Kimbrel should remain one of the best relievers in baseball

Image credit: SI.com

The spot starter won’t be asked to pitch a no-hitter, just to make it through the fifth inning. If they can hold opponents to three or four runs through five innings, then they’ve done their job. The Red Sox bullpen can take it from there, and they should be hard to hit.

While they don’t have the depth they had late last season, this Red Sox bullpen should still be one of the best. For the early innings, Matt Barnes has shown he can be a good bridge arm, so long as the pressure isn’t high. Nobody knows what roles Joe Kelly and Brandon Workman will have, but they’ve both proven capable of shutting down top talent with their fastballs. While he’s normally not an inspiring option, Heath Hembree is actually surprisingly amazing in April. Since 2016, he’s only allowed two earned runs in 21.2 innings.

If those four can make it to the eighth inning, Carson Smith and Craig Kimbrel can easily handle the rest. Smith looked like a difference maker in the eighth inning last season, albeit in minimal appearances. If he can build on his successful end to 2017, the Red Sox will have a great setup man.

And of course, Kimbrel will handle the ninth. One could argue that Kimbrel is the best closer in baseball. He certainly was last season, posting an absurd 126 strikeouts in 69 innings. He probably won’t be that good this year, but he’s still poised to be a top-five closer in baseball.

A Stronger Offense

Of course, the Sox had a great bullpen last year, but still weren’t always able to overcome sub par starts. This was mostly due an underwhelming offense. The Red Sox offense didn’t live up to its potential due to key injuries and underperformance by other players. Of course, David Ortiz‘ absence was a big part of last years limited offense.

Those problems should be a thing of the past. There’s no fully replacing David Ortiz, but the Red Sox have found their next big power bat in J.D. Martinez. That alone will give the Red Sox a better chance at coming from behind, but he won’t be the sole fix for the offense.

Hanley Ramirez battled through a shoulder injury all of 2017, and his health should be a huge boost for the roster. Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts should bounce back from down years, and Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers should only get better in their second years. This probably won’t be the best offense in the league like it was in 2016, but it could easily be a top five unit.

Not the End of the World

Obviously, it’s never ideal to lose two starting pitchers before Opening Day. However, the Red Sox have built a strong roster that’s capable of handling those types of losses. They don’t need the spot starter to be great, just serviceable.

It’s not crazy to think that the Sox could pull off a win in two or even all three of the spot starter’s appearances. In years past, that wouldn’t have been likely. This year, thanks to a great four-man rotation, a strong bullpen, and a talented lineup, it can certainly be done.

Cover image courtesy of Florida Today.

Let’s Talk About Dustin Pedroia

Leave a reply

The Legend of Dustin Pedroia

2004 was a very special year for so many reasons. You think one thing when you hear “2004” as a Red Sox fan. We all know what happened that year. It was an emotional, crazy, fun ride that led a team full of idiots past the big bad New York Yankees and to their first World Series title since 1918. But something else historical also happened that year.

In the summer of 2004, a man by the name of Dustin Pedroia out of Arizona State was drafted by the Red Sox with the 65th overall pick. Nobody had an idea what the future would hold. At the time there was a #15 on the Red Sox that everyone loved (and still does)- Kevin Millar. Skip ahead two years to 2006 and you have this kid Pedroia securing #15 for himself.

Pedoria had a tough time during his first year playing in the majors, with a .191/.258/.303 slash line in 32 games. People were down on him. This guy was no good, right? He had no future with this team, right? This little guy. What did he have to offer? Nothing, I’m sure. Ha.

Have you ever heard of someone who had an awful season but an awesome one the next? If not, now you do. That’s because Dustin Pedroia did just that. His struggles in ’06 were a small sample size, anyway. He didn’t even play enough games for it to qualify as his rookie year. In Spring Training of 2007, Pedroia was competing for a job at second base with Alex Cora, who is coincidentally now the manager of the current Boston squad. Pedey won the job and started on the Opening Day roster in 2007. He struggled once again to begin the year, slashing .182/.308/.236/.544. So what would he do now? I’ll tell you what he did.

Rising up the Ranks

He posted a .415/.472/.600/1.072 line in May, remained hot for the rest of his rookie season and never looked back. He finished the year hitting .317/.380/.442, helped lead his team to a World Series championship, and was named Rookie of the Year. I’m pretty sure Pedroia has only flipped his bat on a home run once in his career, and it’s one of the best home runs in Red Sox history. It was Game 7 of the ALCS against Cleveland, a series that the Red Sox came back from a 3-1 deficit. It was the 7th inning and the Sox were up 3-2 at that point. Pedroia came up with a man on and hammered a ball into the Monster seats and finished with a sweet bat flip. That made the game 5-2, and Boston eventually won it 11-2 on their way to the World Series title.

After a great 2007 season Pedroia had an even better one in ’08, hitting .326/.376/.493 and winning MVP. Boston came up short that year, losing to Tampa in seven games. However, Boston got their revenge in 2013, when they would beat the Rays in the ALDS in four games on the way to their third World Series championship win in the last nine years. Pedroia got his second ring.

O’ Captain My Captain

Pedey is the heart and soul of this Red Sox team no matter you believe it or not. He is the captain of the team and a leader. He leads by example of how you should play the game and how you can be a winning ballplayer. Pedroia is the kind of guy where when he starts talking, everyone shuts up and listens.

Pedroia eats, sleeps, and breathes baseball. He would take a line shot in the face for this team. He’ll scoop any ground ball that comes his way and fire it over to first or flip it to second for a smooth double play. He’ll hit consistently every single year even as he gets older.

One of the problems with Pedroia throughout his whole career have been injuries. Do you want to know why he tends to get injured? Because he plays his ass off. He’ll do risky things for the sake of the team. For the sake of winning. Those things can cost you. But Pedey’s a tough guy.

Nowadays every player just wants money. They don’t care about being loyal like the old players used to. Players will go anywhere if they are offered big bucks. Guys will go from the Red Sox to the Yankees to get more money. They don’t care. But Pedroia? He’s the definition of loyal. In 2013, he took less money so he could stay with Boston, signing an 8 year, $110 million deal. This guy is a leader. He’s a winning player. Someone you can look up to.

Pedroia once said “People always ask me if I wish I were bigger. I tell them no. I always wanted to be a miniature badass.” He definitely is a miniature badass. A miniature badass for the Boston Red Sox, that is. And I wouldn’t have it any other way.

Cover image courtesy of MassLive.com.

The Top Center Fielders Long-Term

Leave a reply

Center field is the easiest position to answer who the best is, as it is home to the best player in the game. It’s Mike Trout and everyone else. Who are those everybody else? Some are household names; some are new guys on the scene on their way to becoming household names. Factoring in age in determining the best players to have for the long-term, some perennially included players have dropped to the bottom or even off my list entirely. It does not mean I don’t think they are one of the best right now.

1. Mike Trout

Mike Trout is an all-time great, and he’s only 26. He finished first or second in the MVP vote in each of his first five seasons, and would have made it six straight if not for an injury last season. Instead, he finished fourth despite barely reaching 400 at-bats. At the time of his injury, Trout was on pace for a historic season, on pace for over 50 home runs and over 30 stolen bases.

After becoming a bit more of a slugger than all-around hitter in 2014 and 2015, Trout has again cut back on his strike outs the past two seasons and led the league in on-base percentage both years. He’s back to stealing bases, hitting over .300 and yes, he hits home runs still. He’s probably going to bat .300 and have an OPS around 1.000. Trout will be a threat for 40 home runs if healthy and possibly steal 30 bases. Heck, if the Angels turn him loose like they did his rookie year he could be baseball’s first 40-40 man since Alfonso Soriano in 2006. Enjoy watching him; you might never see anyone do it better.

2. George Springer

Springer has been slowly improving every season, culminating in career highs almost across the board last season at the age of 27. Springer then homered five times in the World Series, taking home MVP honors. He has fully arrived and he is in his prime. Mostly healthy the last two seasons, Springer has homered 63 times. What he really improved on last year was making contact. After striking out 178 times in 2016, Springer cut that number all the way down to 111 last year. His strike out percentage was well above average at 17.7. Despite a career low batting average on balls in play, Springer posted the highest batting average of his career. If he can keep the contact rate up, his average could climb even more.

3. Charlie Blackmon

Blackmon was a legitimate MVP candidate last year, leading the league in hitting, base hits and triples. Blackmon homered 37 times and posted an OPS of 1.000. So why do I have him third? One, he benefits greatly from playing half his games in Coors. Blackmon is a career .346 hitter at Coors versus just .264 everywhere else. With that, his OPS is over 200 points lower playing on the road for his career. Secondly, Blackmon will be turning 32 around midseason, so he’s got a few years on the other guys.

Blackmon’s game has changed a lot the last couple seasons. In his first two full seasons, Blackmon hit a total of 36 home runs, one less than he hit all year last year. He was a gaps hitter who stole a lot of bases, stealing 43 in 2015. His stolen base numbers have dropped to 17 and 14 the last two years. In fact, his 14 stolen bases last season came with ten caught stealing. Meanwhile, his power has spiked, with his home run total going from 17 to 29 to 37 the last three years. He hasn’t even really been hitting more fly balls; just more of them are going over the fences. A free agent after the season, it will be interesting to see what he does if he leaves Coors Field.

4. Byron Buxton

Long heralded as the next big thing, Buxton may have arrived in the second half of last season. Buxton was the number one prospect in baseball according to Baseball America in 2014, and the second best in each of the next two seasons. His physical tools are matched by very few, it’s only been about if and when he could put it all together. He batted only .220 over parts of two seasons heading into last year, then was batting .216 at the all-star break last season. Did something click at that point, or did he just get lucky? Buxton batted .300 in the second half with 11 home runs, showing the world what they had been waiting for. He did benefit from a .378 BABIP though, and still struck out 63 times in 57 games.

Buxton doesn’t need to bat .300 to be a star though, he has all the tools. Buxton might just be the best defensive outfielder in the game, winning the Gold Glove last year after posting 2.8 dWAR. His 24 defensive runs saved above average last year led all center fielders. Buxton is also a great base stealer, stealing 29 bases while only being caught once. And after homering 11 times in the second half, he looks like he has 20 home run power. Even as a .250 hitter, Buxton would be a good player. Does he have more in him?

Minnesota Twins center fielder Byron Buxton makes a leaping catch at the wall in the sixth inning against the Cleveland Indians. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

5. Michael Conforto

The Mets appear to want to make Conforto their center fielder once back from injury. He is better suited to play a corner outfield spot, as he doesn’t have the range to cover center field. Conforto made 39 starts in center last year, posting a negative rating in defensive runs saved. Expected back from shoulder surgery in May, the Mets will have some decisions to make. Hopefully the shoulder injury does not have any huge impact on his bat, as Conforto broke out last season at the plate. A highly touted prospect for a couple of years, Conforto homered 27 times last season at the age of 24 before going down with the injury. He had an outstanding slash line of .384/.555/.939, a line ranking among the best in the game. Turning 25 in less than a week, Conforto could be a slugging outfielder for a long time to come.

6. Tommy Pham

Despite just playing his first (mostly) full Major League season, Pham will be 30 before the season starts. He is an interesting case in that he has always performed well, but never got a real opportunity until he was 29. Pham was a career .298 hitter in AA and .301 hitter in AAA. He performed adequately for the Cardinals off the bench in 2015, posting an .824 OPS. His numbers dropped off in 2016, but he showed some power with 9 home runs in 159 at-bats.

Pham has long since battled a degenerative eye condition, Pham has been overcoming obstacles his entire career. Finally given every day at-bats last year, Pham batted .306 with 23 home runs and a .931 OPS. That OPS placed him in the top 20 for the whole Major Leagues. He also stole 25 bases, hinting at a possible 30-30 season if he plays in 150 games. It’s quite impressive he can post such a good batting average and on-base percentage given his eyesight, hopefully it will allow him to continue to display his baseball tools.

7. Kevin Kiermaier

If Byron Buxton isn’t the best defensive outfielder, it’s because Kevin Kiermaier is. Kiermaier only played in 98 games last year thanks to injury, yet still posted 22 defensive runs saved above average. That total was only two behind Buxton. Kiermaier won the Gold Glove for center field in each of the two prior seasons, totaling 67 defensive runs saved above average. His dWAR over that three year span is 10.4. My money is still on him for the best defender in center field.

Kiermaier isn’t all glove either, and is coming off his finest offensive season. Kiermaier batted .276 last year and hit a career high 15 home runs despite the missed time. He also stole 16 bags, which would have been his second consecutive 20 steal season without injury. He’s certainly no great shakes at the plate, but he gets the job done. A solid batting average, a little bit of pop and the ability to steal a base; not a bad addition to the best glove in the outfield.

8. Starling Marte

2017 was not a good season for Marte, missing half the season due to a PED suspension. When he came back, he looked rusty and didn’t play his best ball. He finally said hello to the baseball season as it was saying goodbye, batting .322 in September with 3 home runs and 8 stolen bases. This was a reminder that Marte is a good ballplayer. The year before he had batted .311 and stolen 47 bases. Still just 29 this year, Marte should be a good hitter and a threat on the bases for a few years to come.

Over Marte’s four full seasons heading into last year, he had batted .292 while averaging 13 home runs and 37 stolen bases per year. He had twice eclipsed 40 steals in a season. He might not hit 19 home runs again like he did in 2015, as he dropped to 9 the following year. However, with a good batting average and 40 steal capability, power is not his game. Marte will be playing a mostly new position this year, after winning two Gold Gloves in left field.

Pirates’ Starling Marte hits a three-run triple against the Padres in the first inning at PNC Park Monday night. Matt Freed/Post-Gazette

9. Ian Happ

The 9th overall pick in 2015, Happ made his debut with the Cubs last year after appearing on top 100 prospect lists everywhere for two years. Happ certainly didn’t disappoint, smashing 24 home runs in only 364 at-bats. He is unlikely to have 18.9% of his fly balls go for home runs again, as they did last year. However, it is likely his contact rate and batting average will improve. Happ struck out in over 30% of his at-bats as a rookie, a number that will likely come down closer to 25%. Happ was only 22 years old for most of the season and spent less than two years in the minor leagues. He still has some developing to do.

Happ came up through the minors as a second baseman, so he also has some developing to do in the outfield. Above all that, the Cubs are putting him in center. He held his own at the position last year, posting a positive defensive runs saved in 41 starts in center field last year. Although not a large sample size, it’s a start. Only time will tell how he handles the position.

10. Lorenzo Cain

Cain is better than the tenth best center fielder in baseball right now, but he is 32. Cain’s game relies a lot on his speed, a skill that will most likely fade quicker with age than other skills. He might be a top five center fielder currently, but given these reasons, he comes in at tenth for the purposes of my list. Cain has stolen more than 25 bases in three of the past four seasons, and he uses his speed to cover a lot of ground in center field. But how will those skills look in two or three years?

Cain is also an excellent hitter. He does not have a lot of power, reaching double digits in home runs just twice, but he has hit .300 or better in three of the past four years. Last year, he bounced back from an injury-riddled campaign to bat .300 with 15 home runs. Moving to a hitter friendly ballpark in Milwaukee, there is no reason why Cain can’t equal those numbers again this year.

Honorable Mentions:

Ender Inciarte, Odubel Herrera, Adam Jones, A.J. Pollock, Chris Taylor, Michael Taylor, Aaron Hicks, Jackie Bradley Jr., Dee Gordon, Kevin Pillar

The Case for Xander Bogaerts Hitting Leadoff

The end of the 2017 season was disappointing for the Red Sox. The team looked worn down and crawled to the finish line. Not much went right in the last month, as the Red Sox were quickly eliminated from postseason contention. However, there was one good development from that September. Shortstop Xander Bogaerts became the leadoff hitter, and he thrived in the role. Moving forward, the Red Sox should keep Xander Bogaerts hitting leadoff.

The Case for Xander Bogaerts Hitting Leadoff

Boston will most likely have Mookie Betts be the leadoff hitter, and it’s hard to call if it that’s the wrong move or not. Betts has been the primary leadoff hitter since 2015, and has done a great job with the role. Mookie’s been the leadoff hitter 190 times in the past two seasons. He finished second in MVP voting in 2016 and established himself as one of the best ballplayers in baseball, so it’s clearly working for him.

Moving Mookie Down

Mookie Betts will perform regardless of his spot in the order

Image credit: USA Today

However, Mookie may be too good of a hitter to be leadoff. Mookie has the most home runs on the Red Sox since 2015. While he won’t be the best power bat now that the Sox have J.D. Martinez, he’s still too powerful for the leadoff spot. With Mookie hitting first, there aren’t as many runners to drive in. If Mookie were moved down to third in the lineup, he would typically have more runners on base, and thus could use his power to drive in more runs.

Some players, for whatever reason, don’t perform as well when moved in the lineup. Historically, Mookie hasn’t had that problem. Mookie’s shifted down in the lineup before, and he’s remained essentially the same hitter. In 2017, he posted a .266/.341/.474 slash line when hitting first compared to a .270/.355/.461 line when hitting third. 2016 was more of the same, as Mookie hit .314/.355/.546 leading off and .314/.333/.529 hitting third.

Moving Xander Up

Mookie will thrive regardless of where he hits, so why would Bogaerts be a better fit to lead off? The most obvious answer comes from the end of last season. He only led off in 28 games, which is an admittedly small sample size, but the results were encouraging.

In those 28 games, Bogaerts put up .309/.406/.418 slash line. In every other game of the season, Bogaerts put up a combined .265/.327/.399 slash. His numbers skyrocketed at leadoff, but the jump is even more impressive when factoring when Bogaerts started hitting leadoff. It’s no secret that Bogaerts slumps towards the end of the season; it’s been an issue almost every season he’s been in the majors. However, something about hitting leadoff made Bogaerts break out of his slump and put up some good numbers.

As mentioned earlier, Bogaerts played only 28 games as the leadoff hitter, and it’s hard to interpolate a sample size that small into a full season. However, Bogaerts’s hitting style suggests that his success as a leadoff hitter wasn’t a fluke.

The most important quality of a leadoff hitter is to get on base, and that’s where Bogaerts thrives. The shortstop has led the team in batting average in two of the last three seasons, and is one of the best two strike hitters in the league. Bogaerts’s skill set has grown rare in the juiced ball era, and there aren’t many players left capable of taking a tough two strike pitch and getting an opposite field single or double.

Bogaerts will also likely benefit from Alex Cora’s philosophical change of attacking good pitches. Former manager John Farrell believed in working the count to a stubborn degree, and consistently left his players down in the count. Bogaerts is a great contact hitter, and now he can swing at any pitch he wants. This should lead to a rise in his batting average and slugging percentage, which makes him even more valuable as a leadoff hitter.

Bogaerts, Betts, and the Offense

Image credit: MassLive

Ultimately, there’s no bad choice here. This offense is stacked with talent, and runs should come regardless of who hits where. However, the best lineup features Bogaerts leading off and Mookie in the three spot. Mookie has too much power to lead off, which actively takes runs off the board. Bogaerts is too good at getting on base, and his ability would be wasted hitting him in the six hole. It wouldn’t be the safe move, but it is the right move.

Cover image courtesy of overthemonster.com

2018 Outlook for Drew Pomeranz

Leave a reply

Boston Trades for Drew Pomeranz

In July of the 2016 season the Red Sox acquired Drew Pomeranz from the San Diego Padres. The Sox gave up Anderson Espinoza, their top pitching prospect who had received comparisons to Pedro Martinez. At first it seemed like Dombrowski made a mistake as his new pitcher struggled. Pomeranz was in the midst of breakout season with San Diego, but in 14 games with Boston he had a 4.59 ERA. Last year he rebounded by winning 17 games with an ERA of 3.32. Pomeranz will be looking to build on that success in 2018.

Photo Credit: Michael Dwyer/ Associated Press

Pomernaz’s Breakout 2017

In 2010 Pomeranz was taken fifth overall in the MLB draft. Since then he’s pitched for four teams, including the Red Sox. Last year was the first season of his career in which Pomeranz was able to stay healthy and pitch to his potential. However, last season was not entirely great for the former fifth overall pick, as for the early part of 2017 he continued to struggle. Through for the first two months of the season he had an ERA of 4.24. From June on he was a different pitcher and became the second best starter Red Sox. Boston needed this badly, as David price was injured and would not return until the playoffs. The question for Pomeranz is can he repeat the success he had last year.

Photo Credit: Ap Photo/ Charles Krupa

Expectations for 2018

Last season was not a surprise for Pomeranz based on his potential when he was drafted. If the Red Sox are going to make a championship run, they will need the 2017 version of Pomeranz. Down the stretch he showed fatigue last year as he pitched the most innings of his career. Pomeranz is projected to slot into the third spot of the Sox rotation behind Sale and Price. This will take some pressure off him as the team won’t be relying on him as much as last year. The Sox offense is also expected to be better, which will not help just Pomeranz but all of the Red Sox starters. Pomeranz may not win 17 games again this year, but he should be a solid number three with an ERA under 4.00.

Photo Credit: Bob Chiara/ USA Today Sports

Final Thoughts

Pomeranz like many other Red Sox starters will be highly motivated. He will be a free agent after this season. He is also coming off a playoff start against the Astros, in which he lasted only two innings. Those two factors should push Pomeranz as this season as he could be in for a big 2018.

The Top Left Fielders Long-Term

Leave a reply

Lists have been created this offseason determining the top ten players at each position for right now. I have been writing my own series on top tens; except instead of doing them for just the here and now, mine factor in age and determine who the best players are to own for the long haul. These lists obviously differ from others, as someone in their mid-30’s isn’t nearly as valuable in the long run. So, when I put a young guy ahead of someone in their 30’s, I’m not necessarily saying I think he is going to be better this year.

1. Andrew Benintendi

I know, this takes a leap of faith on my end to think Benintendi is number one. There is another player in his 20’s who had a breakout season last year and was truly a star. So how can I put Benintendi above him? Whereas I do believe in that player’s breakout, I do not believe in the extent to which he broke out. Benintendi will only improve upon his rookie season. It might be hard to justify putting him in this spot based on what’s happened so far, but if I am holding true to myself, this is where I put him. I believe Benintendi is a star for years to come and will have more long-term value.

Benintendi is an all-around player, posting the first 20-20 season by a rookie left fielder since Barry Bonds 30 years earlier. He has a sweet swing, often drawing comparisons to Fred Lynn. He is an excellent fielder, looking incredibly smooth playing the monster in left and getting the ball quickly back to the infield. Benintendi had 11 assists from left last year, leading the league. Benintendi batted .271 last season, but was a .312 career hitter in the minors. He also drew plenty of walks, a rare quality in someone so young, leading to a .352 on-base percentage.

Based on his minor league numbers and his stature as the best prospect in baseball, I expect a lot more from Benintendi in the near future. Maybe he won’t be the best left fielder as soon as this year, but I think he will be closer than some expect. I think in the long run he is a .300 hitter with a .370-.380 on base percentage. With this would come a 25 home run bat and 20 steal potential on the basepaths. Oh, and don’t forget about that glove. Benintendi will be a star in the near future.

2. Marcell Ozuna

Ozuna is the player I referenced above. He was the best left fielder in baseball last year, and did it at the age of 26. It makes sense at that age that he would take a step forward, I’m just not sure I’m buying how much he did so. Ozuna was a career .265 hitter before last season, when he batted .312. He did have power, homering 23 times in a season twice. 37 is a large leap from 23 though. His at-bats per home run dropped from a previous best of 24.2 down to 16.6. Ozuna’s previous best ratio of home runs per fly ball was 12.6% in 2014. Last year, that number jumped from 10.3% in 2016 to 16.5% of his fly balls going for home runs last season. With the juiced balls in play, is that number sustainable moving forward if the balls are normalized?

All that said, I like Ozuna. He had shown signs of a breakout early in 2016, batting .307 with 17 home runs in the first half. It makes me believe in his breakout as a hitter, I just don’t see him hitting .312 with 37 homers again. He strikes out more than the league average hitter, so such a lofty average will be hard to maintain. He also had a .355 BABIP, higher than his career average of .318 to that point. I see Ozuna as more of a .280 hitter with possible 30 home run power. That’s still an excellent player. He also is a good fielder, taking home the Gold Glove for the position last season. Ozuna hadn’t been a good fielder prior, but he had been playing center field. He seems to have found a home in left.

3. Christian Yelich

Back to back Marlins from last year, now on different teams. Yelich played center in Miami, but in his new home of Milwaukee will be manning left field. His defense should play up in left field with less ground to cover. He is 30 defensive runs saved above average in his career as a left fielder, against a -13 total in center. He also should benefit from his new home park, which is much friendlier to hitters. Yelich is a career .280 hitter at Marlins Park, with just a .398 slugging percentage. On the road he bats .300 with a .462 slugging percentage. In his new park, and with good hitters around him, I expect we will see a full season of that road version of Yelich.

4. Justin Upton

Justin Upton is still only 30 years old, after breaking in as a teenager back in 2007. He is a notoriously streaky hitter and can be inconsistent from year to year. Two years ago he struggled all year long, then hit 13 home runs in September. Last season, he followed up a two homer July by hitting 11 home runs in August. This is a pattern he has shown his whole career. What it usually plays out to is a mediocre average with 30 home run power.

Upton is one of the biggest strike out hitters in the game, whiffing in 28.5% of his at-bats over the last two years. He isn’t going to suddenly hit for average. But he does draw some walks, and he’s likely going to threaten 30 home runs for the third straight year. Getting to bat near Mike Trout shouldn’t hurt. Upton has stolen 20 bases a couple of times, though those days might be in the past, he did steal 14 bags last year.

5. Yoenis Cespedes

Cespedes has improved mightily as a hitter the last few years. He is still a little free-swinging, but he has cut down his strike out rate some and improved his home run rate. With it, his average has climbed. A .251 hitter between 2013 and 2014, Cespedes has batted .287 over the last three years. His strike out rate the last two years has been below 20%, which is better than average. Before injury, Cespedes was well on his way to a third straight 30 home run season last year after never reaching that mark in his first three seasons.

Cespedes is dropped some because he is coming off an injury plagued season and is now 32 years old. If I were doing this list for just 2018, he might be number one. But how much longer will his body allow him to perform at a star level? He missed extended time twice last year with leg injuries.

6. Rhys Hoskins

Hoskins is the new guy on the scene, and at a new position. Hoskins played first base throughout his minor league career, but the Phillies have decided to move forward with him as their left fielder. Time will tell how he handles the position. His bat is a force to be reckoned with though, and that’s why the Phillies are making a spot for him. Hoskins hit 38 home runs in AA in 2016, posting a .943 OPS. He kept it up last year, hitting 29 home runs in AAA before his call-up. Hoskins then went on a rampage, hitting 18 home runs over 170 Major League at-bats, posting a 1.014 OPS. That’s 47 home runs between the two levels.

Can Hoskins hit like that for a full season? He has the right approach, taking pitches and working walks. He walked 37 times last season, giving him a stellar .396 on-base percentage despite a .259 batting average. His walk rate wasn’t quite that high in the minors, but he did draw walks. It seems that even if he bats .260, he could put up a nice .360-.370 on-base percentage. Couple that with his power, and Hoskins might be a star in the making.

7. Trey Mancini

Trey Mancini seems to be that type of player that scouts never love, but he just performs every year. Mancini never made a top prospects list, despite hitting at every level. In 2015, he batted .341 with 21 home runs, including a .359 average at AA. He hit .306 for his minor league career, and the production has continued into the majors. In his first full season, Mancini batted .293 with 24 home runs last season. He continues to prove his doubters wrong.

There are a couple of things he could improve upon. Last season, Mancini struck out 139 times against just 33 walks. Both rates were worse than the league average. Given more experience, he could improve that contact rate though, he was a rookie. Given his power and his minor league numbers, I am not going to doubt him.

8. Eddie Rosario

Rosario broke out in a big way last season, but he’d shown promise before then. Rosario led the league with 15 triples in his rookie season of 2015. Problem was, he also walked 15 times. The next season, he again posted solid numbers, except for walks. So what made his breakout last season when he batted .290 and hit 27 homers? Well, it wasn’t luck. His first two seasons, Rosario had a .335 batting average on balls in play. Last year, that number actually dropped quite a bit, down to .312. Part of that has to do with his increase in home runs. Rosario cut his strike out rate from over 25% down to 18% while modestly improving his walk rate. So he is showing strides at the plate.

There is some pedigree to Rosario too, as he was a career .294 hitter in the minor leagues with an .825 OPS. His .836 OPS last year looks to be pretty well in line with what he did down on the farm. He also clearly exhibited extra base ability before last season, and it would stand to reason that as he filled out some he would hit a few more home runs. Rosario is never going to walk a lot, but he should hit for a decent average with some pop.

9. Adam Eaton

At 29, Eaton is coming off a torn ACL that cut his debut season with the Nationals short. It happened early in the season, and Eaton should have no problems being back to his normal self this year. That player had been a very consistent one, posting nearly identical numbers in both 2015 and 2016.

It would certainly seem reasonable to expect stats similar to those again. Eaton doesn’t excel at any one thing, but he is a pretty solid across the board contributor. He was not cut out for center field, consistently putting up below average defensive statistics there. However, he should be a good fielder in left where he doesn’t need as much range. Eaton was 22 defensive runs saved above average as a right fielder in 2016. He’s never quite been the stolen base threat he was expected to be, but he can still steal a few bases. Eaton will give you a little bit of everything.

10. Kyle Schwarber

Schwarber’s play last season doesn’t merit a spot here, but I believe there is a lot better hitter inside him. He was coming off a big injury, and didn’t have much development time before then. Schwarber was the fourth overall pick in 2014 and proceeded to post a 1.061 OPS over half a season in the minor leagues. He again had an OPS over 1.000 the next year at the time of his call-up. The guy could flat-out hit; he had power, he didn’t strike out too frequently and he put up huge numbers. Up in the big leagues the year after he was drafted, Schwarber hit 16 home runs in 69 games and posted an on-base percentage over 100 points higher than his average. He was all the rage heading into the next season, which was over practically before it started.

It is much too early to give up on Schwarber. Everyone was in love with the guy, then after a catastrophic injury and one down season everyone wants to throw in the towel. Yes, he hit .211, but he again had an on-base percentage over 100 points higher. He also homered 30 times, and posted a solid .782 OPS. Maybe he will never hit for average like he did in the minors, but I doubt he will strike out 30% of the time and bat .211 again. He could easily win some people back this season by hitting .250 with a .350 on-base percentage and 30 home runs. I have him in the ten spot because I believe he can be a force at the plate again. Please, get the man out of left field though, he does not belong out there.

Honorable Mentions:

Adam Duvall, Marwin Gonzalez, Michael Brantley, Yasmany Tomas, Brett Gardner

Feature picture from wbur.org

Positive Vibes During Spring Training in Fort Myers

Leave a reply

Spring Training Has Started

Via USA Today

The Boston Red Sox begin Spring Training games this week. It already seems like the vibe in Spring Training is different from the last few years. The Red Sox just singed J.D. Martinez to a five year, $110 million dollar deal. Seems like everyone needed a fresh start from the manager, and Alex Cora brings the young feel to it.

There Was Tension Last Season

Via USA Today

Mookie Betts admitted that there was tension last season, saying, “I think (there was) just tension in the locker room as far as if things were down. We could have had more fun. Through the rough times, I think those are the times when we could have had a little more fun instead of being down so much.”

Xander Bogaerts also said how there was friction last year: “I mean, we all know. We all know what was going on,” I don’t think I really want to get into details. The quicker we move on is the better for all of us.”

Not One Single Leader

(Fort Myers FL, 02/19/18) The Red Sox official full squad workout, stretch during Spring Training at the Player Development Complex on Monday, February 19, 2018. Staff photo by Matt Stone

Dustin Pedroia spoke about the leadership, saying it’s not just one person, it’s everybody. It’s clear winning the division is not good enough in this city. The Red Sox need to compete with the Yankees and the Martinez signing was huge. Alex Cora isn’t speaking the gibberish that Farrell would say while talking to the media. Cora said last week if you see a pitch right down the middle swing the bat and see where it goes. Don’t take a first pitch if it looks like you can hit it. The Red Sox are a fun young team with a power hitter. It still remains to be unseen how well they will compete with the Yankees, but the Martinez singing is a great start. I like the good vibe in Red Sox Spring Training even though it’s still early. It seems like they got the right change with the manager let’s see how the team shapes up to be.

The Boston Red Sox Have No Ceiling

Leave a reply

The Boston Red Sox won 93 games and a division title last season, and they’ve only gotten better. The offense underachieved last season, and just about every player will probably increase their production in 2018. They’ve replaced John Farrell with a younger manager who better fits the team in Alex Cora. This alone guaranteed the Red Sox would be a good team in 2018. After bringing on JD Martinez, the 2018 Boston Red Sox have no ceiling

The Missing Power

JD Martinez is finally a Red Sox!

Image Credit: Yahoo Sports

The Boston Red Sox put up the sixth most runs in the American League last season, but the offense as a whole didn’t feel that great. This was due to the fact the Red Sox finished dead last in the AL in home runs. They could mash singles and doubles, but they lacked a guy that could change a games outcome with just a swing of a bat.

After a long and tedious offseason, that need has finally been met. The Red Sox signed the best power hitter on the market, JD Martinez, to a very reasonable five-year deal for $110 million. It’s no secret that the Red Sox wanted him from the start of free agency, but they played their cards right. Instead of overpaying, they got their top free agent on a deal that won’t burden the team years down the line.

And boy does Martinez fill a need. Martinez has hit 105 home runs in the past three seasons. By comparison, Mookie Betts is the next closest on the Red Sox with 73 homers. Martinez is more than a one-trick pony, as his average slash line over the past three seasons has been .297/.364/.586. He’s not just a great power hitter, he’s a great all-around hitter. Players capable of hitting for power and average are becoming increasingly hard to find, and the Sox found one.

Internal Offensive Improvements

As mentioned earlier, the Red Sox offense as a whole regressed in 2017. Just about everyone underperformed from their previous seasons. The Red Sox young core of Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, and Jackie Bradley Jr. are projected by just about every source to improve on their 2017 season. Hanley Ramirez has changed his offseason workout regimen, and there’s plenty of reason to believe he’ll have a great bounce back year.

While the established players should bounce back, two very young players should continue to improve. Left fielder Andrew Benintendi and third baseman Rafael Devers are entering their second full year in the pros, and should play huge roles in the team’s success.

Benintendi had a good 2017, finishing second in the rookie of the year voting to Yankees slugger Aaron Judge. However, his season was streaky and he went through the normal highs and lows of being a rookie. Those lows shouldn’t be as low or last as long with a full year under his belt. Outside of Mookie, Benintendi could be the best all-around player on the Red Sox. He could even make an MVP push if everything breaks right.

The Devers Factor

Devers could make an even bigger impact. The third baseman was promoted to the majors at age 20 after just one week in AAA Pawtucket simply because the Red Sox third base situation was that bad. Most any other player would struggle given such a drastic rise in competition, but Devers thrived. His major league career began with a home run, and he never slowed as the season went on.

Devers became arguably the best power bat on the 2017 Red Sox. In just 58 games, the Red Sox rookie hit 10 home runs with a .284/.338/.442 slash line. He had a knack for big moment plays, most notably his homer against Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman and his inside the park homer against the Houston Astros in the playoffs. This is great production for any rookie, nevermind a 20-year old who got called up primarily out of desperation.

His fielding needs some work, but that should improve with time. He’ll never win a gold glove, but he should figure out how to be a major league fielder. Obviously, major league players hit the ball a lot harder than the AA guys he faced the first half of the season. He made a few great defensive plays his rookie year, and his mechanics should improve with time.

Even if you don’t believe Devers can match his rookie production, there’s no way he can be worse than what the Red Sox sent out in 2017. In his half season in the pros, Devers compiled a respectable 0.9 WAR. By comparison, the primary third base options in the beginning of that season (Tsu-Wei Lin, Devin Marrero, Pablo Sandoval, Brock Holt) put up a combined -0.8 WAR. By default, Devers at third will be better than whatever the alternative is.

The Starting Pitching

As great as the lineup is, the rotation is just as good

Image credit: Boston Herald

While the offense struggled in 2017, the starting pitching was mostly dominant, and most of those pieces are returning healthier than ever. Chris Sale and a now-healthy David Price are arguably the best one-two combination in baseball. Sale is a top-five pitcher, and should be in the Cy Young running again. Price isn’t what he was, but he’s still a great pitcher who would be the ace on most teams. His elbow is a concern, but as long as he’s healthy he should remain one of the best #2 starters in baseball.

The crew behind that duo is pretty impressive. Drew Pomeranz probably won’t be able to match his 2017 production, but he’s still a safe bet to finish the season with a 3.50-3.70 ERA and get six to seven innings a start. That’s the recipe for a good third starter. Contrarily, Rick Porcello will almost certainly not be as bad in 2018 as he was in 2017. He probably won’t win the Cy Young again, but he doesn’t need to. Expect Porcello to finish the season with an ERA around 4 and eat at least six innings every time he gets the ball.

The biggest wild card here is what Eduardo Rodriguez can do. He’s flashed his huge ceiling ever since being called up in 2015, but injuries and inconsistency have plagued the pitcher. He will miss part of the season with a knee injury, but expect big things when he comes back. A new manager might just be the change E-Rod needs to finally break out and become the pitcher he’s capable of. If he can do that, he immediately becomes the #3 guy in the rotation.

The Depth Starters

The Red Sox have their top five set in stone, but all five won’t be healthy for all 162 games. Fortunately, the Red Sox are pretty well set with their backup plans. Knuckleballer Steven Wright has performed well in the past as a starter, and will likely take E-Rod’s spot in the rotation while he gets healthy. It looks as though Wright has finally put his shoulder injury behind him, which bodes well for the Red Sox. The last time Wright was healthy was in the first half of 2016, when he earned a spot at the All-Star game.

The Red Sox are pretty well set even if calamity strikes and they need two spot starters at once. Both Hector Velasquez and Brian Johnson have shown they’re capable of performing adequately when their number is called. While neither player should be used as anything other than a last resort, they’re both capable of starting a major league game and keeping the Sox in it.

The Bullpen

This is arguably the weakest part of the Red Sox roster, which says a lot about how strong every other part of the Red Sox is. The Sox still have a top-five closer in Craig Kimbrel, and it sounds like Cora is willing to use him in more than just save situations. Kimbrel has been one of the best relievers in baseball for years, and that shouldn’t change now.

Addison Reed left in the offseason, but the duo of Carson Smith and Tyler Thornberg will fill his role. Smith looked as advertised in limited outings last season, and Thornberg had a great 2016 with the Milwaukee Brewers before missing all of 2017. All three aforementioned arms can blow up the radar gun and could prove to be a dominant grouping in the final three innings of the game.

The guys behind the top three aren’t bad either. Joe Kelly, Brandon Workman, and Matt Barnes all have their flaws and limitations, but each has shown flashes of brilliance. Each can come into a game early and keep the now-explosive Red Sox offense in it. Of this group, Workman has the highest upside.

Injuries robbed Workman of his 2015 and 2016 seasons after a failed attempt at being a starter in 2014. Workman faltered down the stretch, posting a 6.10 ERA in September and October. Before that, though, Workman put up a very impressive 2.15 ERA in 29.1 innings of relief. Workman’s late season skid was probably due to fatigue; he hadn’t pitched in the majors since 2014. If Workman can come back and last a full season, the Red Sox have yet another dangerous arm.

The Competition

The Red Sox are a very good team and could very easily break 100 wins if everything goes their way. However, don’t plan the World Series parade yet. The AL is stacked with high talent teams, and 2018 should be a great season for baseball.

The reigning champion Houston Astros are the team to beat, and they’re not going anywhere. Superstars Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa will wreak havoc on the league for the next decade. Their championship wasn’t a fluke, and it wouldn’t surprise anyone if the Astros went back to back.

The New York Yankees have an impressive young core of sluggers, and just added NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton. The Cleveland Indians remain an incredibly difficult team to beat as long as it’s not an elimination game. Just like 2017, these three teams and the Red Sox should make up the top four American League teams.

The Red Sox are now on that level. Sure, they won the division last season, but everyone knew what was awaiting them in the playoffs. This year, a division title isn’t the best case scenario. With a new power hitter, offensive improvements from within, and a great group of pitchers, these Red Sox are ready to challenge for a World Series title.

Cover image courtesy of MassLive.com.