Tag Archives: Most Valuable Player

BSE Baseball Writers MLB Awards Predictions

American League Most Valuable Player

Thom Howland: Jose Ramirez hit .270 last year with an unlucky 25% hit rate. With his top tier power, peak age, and a Cleveland team gunning for another AL Central crown, the time is ripe for his MVP closeup. Dark horse candidate – Jose Abreu

Scott Frizzell: It is just so hard to pick against Mike Trout. The new $430 million dollar man has finished in the top two every year of his career except one, when he finished fourth after missing six weeks of action. Dark horse candidate – Andrew Benintendi

John Principe: Coming off a year that didn’t end in him winning the MVP, I fully expect Mike Trout to again put up his insane numbers. He’s the closest thing in sports to a perennial lock, and is my pick to stay healthy and win his third MVP. Dark horse candidate – Matt Chapman

Ben Rolfe: Yes, it is the boring pick, but Mike Trout is so far above anyone else in baseball right now it is incredible. If we ignore his small rookie appearance then Trout’s average WAR is 9.2 per year and his numbers are something out of a video game. Dark horse candidate – Luke Voit

Mike Quilty: Mike Trout may be the favorite, but I think Alex Bregman will have a huge year for Houston.

Mike Trout is always a safe bet to be near the top.

National League Most Valuable Player

Thom Howland: Kris Bryant, the former MVP, is over the injuries that sapped his power last year. The Cubs are being counted out, and he will be at the center of their resurgence. Dark horse candidate – Ronald Acuna

Scott Frizzell: Paul Goldschmidt is leaving the desert for St. Louis this season, and I think he will put up his usual big numbers while helping lead the Cardinals back to the postseason for the first time since 2015. After a dreadful first two months last year, Goldy batted .330 with 26 home runs and a 1.022 OPS from June 1st on. Dark horse candidate – Ronald Acuna

John Principe: Bryce Harper is coming off an okay year, but a great contract, what’s in store for him? The new Philly slugger, to me, is poised to breakout again and have his best season since his MVP year in 2015. Look for Bryce to put up another season with an OPS over 1.000, carry his Phils to an NL East title, and win MVP while he’s at it. Dark horse candidate – Ronald Acuna

Ben Rolfe: Nolan Arenado is one of the best fielders at his position and he hits in Coors Field, which always means his hitting numbers will be right up there. His best chance is if he can lead the Rockies back to the playoffs. Dark horse candidate – Jesus Aguilar

Mike Quilty: Paul Goldschmidt had never won the award before but has been close multiple times as a D-Back. After a trade to St. Louis a change of scenery may be just what he needs.

Paul Goldschmidt joins a new team for the first time in his career.

American League Cy Young

Thom Howland: The all-time MLB leader in K/9 and K/BB will put it all together this year. After 6 straight Top 5 AL Cy Young finishes, Chris Sale will finally gain the top spot in 2019. Dark horse candidate – Eduardo Rodriguez

Scott Frizzell: Coming off a fantastic first season in Houston, I will choose Gerrit Cole to win the Cy Young this year. There is no one candidate this year that stands out to me. Dark horse candidate – Shane Bieber

John Principe: Despite struggling in the second half of 2018, I expect a massive year out of Jose Berrios. The bats are a little better behind him, which should work to his advantage. He’s a nasty pitcher with devastating off-speed stuff and will have a good chance to finish at least top 5 in Cy Young voting. Dark horse candidate – Mike Clevinger

Ben Rolfe: The drop in velocity for Chris Sale has me scared, and Gerrit Cole looked so dominant at times last year. He will be a crucial part of a playoff bound rotation and could win 20 games this season.

Mike Quilty: Chris Sale has come in the top five in each of the last six years. Injury last season ended his first shot at the award as he was pitching well. I think Sale will have an amazing year in 2019 and win his first Cy Young.

Chris Sale always finishes in the top five, but can he finally win the coveted award?

National League Cy Young

Thom Howland: Noah Syndergaard went 4-1 with two shutouts in September of last year. Finally healthy after years of nagging injuries, and with an improved Mets team behind him, the promise of his 97+ MPH fastball and devastating off-speed stuff will bring home the NL Cy Young in 2019. Dark horse candidate – Luis Castillo

Scott Frizzell: I tried Noah Syndergaard last season and instead his teammate won the award. I’m going him again. Syndergaard has the stuff to win it, reaching into the upper-90’s with his fastball with a devastating slider thrown around 92. Dark horse candidate – Walker Buehler

John Principe: Walker Buehler came up and absolutely dominated last year. With Kershaw ready to pass the load (and possibly ace status) on to Buehler, this could be a huge breakout year for him in establishing himself as a premier pitcher in the NL. Dark horse candidate – Kyle Freeland

Ben Rolfe: Patrick Corbin moves to a rotation which is known for pitching success on the back of a great 2018. Pitching alongside Max Scherzer gives a perfect person for him to be compared to all season in order to win this award. Dark horse candidate – Robbie Ray

Mike Quilty: Max Scherzer has won three times already, and had a career high last season with 300 strikeouts. He went 18-7 with a 2.53 era and probably would’ve won his fourth if not for Jacob deGrom and his historic season.

“Thor” has electric stuff, but has had some injury troubles.

American League Rookie of the Year

Thom Howland: As a 19-year-old, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. rocketed from Rookie Ball all the way to AAA last year. Along the way he managed a .381 average, 20 Home Runs, and 29 Doubles. He’ll be delayed by a few weeks, but this 20-year-old will rake once he makes the show. Dark horse candidate – Josh James

Scott Frizzell: Eloy Jimenez could have a fantastic rookie season, but it’s hard to go against Vladimir Guerrero Jr. after he hit .402 at AA last season. This could shape up similarly to the Ronald Acuna vs Juan Soto race for Rookie of the Year last season. Dark horse candidate – Josh James

John Principe: Possibly the easiest category of all, Vlad Jr. is poised for greatness regardless of when his call-up comes. He’ll be in the show this season, hopefully by the middle of May at the latest. Even with his competitors getting possibly an extra month to pad their stats, Vlad should easily win this award. Dark horse candidate – Yusei Kikuchi

Ben Rolfe: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is not a particularly fun pick, but I cannot see who else it will be. Guerrero is so talented and in a hitter friendly park, he will have every chance to put up huge numbers. Dark horse candidate – Yusei Kikuchi

Mike Quilty: Vladimir Guerrero Jr, 19-year-old son of HOF Vladimir Guerrero has dominated every level he’s played at to this point. He’s a great talent with great lineage and will now showcase his talent in the big leagues.

National League Rookie of the Year

Thom Howland: Fernando Tatis Jr. is another precocious 20-year-old. He hit .286 with 16 HR and 22 Doubles last year in AA. The Padres are moving the newly minted $300 Million Dollar Manny Machado to third base so Tatis Jr. can play every day. Dark horse candidate – Pete Alonso

Scott Frizzell: Nick Senzel keeps getting moved around the field due to being blocked at the big league level all over the infield. His bat will play anywhere though. It looks like his new home will be center field for the Reds. Although I think Pete Alonso might slug 30 home runs for the Mets, I believe Senzel will have a more rounded game, batting around .300 with 15-20 home runs and stolen bases. Dark horse candidate – Chris Paddack

John Principe: The opposite of the AL, this race seems wide open to me. With no clear favorite, the Mets slugger Pete Alonso is my choice. Alonso has a brilliant eye, and lots of pop in his bat and should have a chance to play first base right away for the Mets. Dark horse candidate – Nick Senzel

Ben Rolfe: Anyone with Nick Senzel’s talent who gets to play in a hitter friendly park is always going to have a great shot of success. Add in the highlight plays he seems to be capable of making in center field and this could be a fun player to watch this season. Dark horse candidate – Chris Paddack

Mike Quilty: If Alex Reyes can finally stay healthy, he has some of the most electric stuff in the entire sport.

Nick Senzel was drafted 2nd overall in 2016.

American League Manager of the Year

Thom Howland: The Angels are an afterthought in the AL playoff picture. The A’s funky stadium and Billy Beane’s witchcraft will run out, and Brad Ausmus will have the Angels in the playoffs for the first time since 2014. Dark horse candidate – Kevin Cash

Scott Frizzell: I like Thom’s pick of Brad Ausmus. Mike Scioscia had gone stale and in need of replacing, the fresh face of Ausmus will give the club an extra jolt this season. Although their pitching staff is questionable, their lineup is looking rock solid. Dark horse candidate – Rocco Baldelli

John Principe: After being named a finalist in 2018 due to his innovation and his ability to do lots with very little, Kevin Cash should take the next step and win this year. There’s always the possibility of a team exceeding expectations (i.e. 2018 Athletics) and that manager taking the award, but for now Cash seems like the safest bet. Dark horse candidate – Rocco Baldelli

Ben Rolfe: Rick Renteria could have a perfect storm of young talented players starting to reach their peak and a weak division. The White Sox could push the Indians deep this season and even not making the playoffs that would be enough to get Renteria in consideration for the award. Dark horse candidate – Rocco Baldelli

Mike Quilty: Call me a homer but I’m going with Alex Cora

Can Brad Ausmus lead the Angels to the playoffs in his first season at the helm?

National League Manager of the Year

Thom Howland: Bud Black has two top-five MVP possibilities in Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon. They have promising starters in Jon Gray, German Marquez, and Kyle Freeland. Black will help their pitching and lead them to the NL Playoffs, despite being given a slim 17.5% chance of doing so. Dark horse candidate – Dave Martinez

Scott Frizzell: Last year I said the Phillies would surprise people and hang in the race before ultimately fading. This year, they will win the NL East, and with it Gabe Kapler will take home the Manager of the Year Award. Dark horse candidate – David Bell

John Principe: David Bell has a great opportunity in front of him in his first year leading the Reds. A young lineup that has already proved itself may now have some pitching behind it to support this team. A lot of people have the Reds as the breakout team of 2019, myself included. If they can push themselves into playoff contention in that division, or even over .500, it’s going to be hard not giving this award to Bell. Dark horse candidate – Dave Martinez

Ben Rolfe: This is another case of a perfect storm. Gabe Kapler took a lot of stick for some of his decisions last season. However, now he has a young rotation and an incredibly talented lineup at his fingertips. This team could be in contention for the most wins in the NL. Dark horse candidate – Bud Black

Mike Quilty: I think Dave Roberts will get the Dodgers back to the World Series and have one of the best records. After losing one of his key players, that could be enough to net him this award.

Gabe Kapler and the Phillies are trending up.

Featured picture taken from CBS Philly

How Red Sox MVP’s Have Fared the Following Season

1912

Tris Speaker won the Most Valuable Player Award in 1912. The award then was not the modern MVP award. From 1911-1914 it was named the Chalmers Award, for the automobile company. However, just like now, baseball writers were the ones who determined the winner. The modern award was started in 1931.

As for Tris Speaker, he batted .383 and led the league in doubles, home runs and on-base percentage in 1912. It was easily his finest season with the Red Sox. However, he did not suffer that big of a drop-off in 1913. Speaker still batted .363 with a .974 OPS. He stole 46 bases and tripled 22 times.

1938

Jimmie Foxx was the recipient of the Red Sox first “modern” MVP Award. Foxx had won two MVP Awards while playing with the Philadelphia Athletics. 1938 was his third season in Boston after being traded.

In 1938, Foxx led the league in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, runs batted in and walks. His 175 RBI that season is still a franchise record. His 50 home runs remained a franchise record for nearly seven decades, and his 398 total bases was a franchise record for 40 years.

In 1939 he was almost as good, just in less playing time. He upped his batting average to .360 and still led the league in on-base and slugging percentage. His 35 home runs led the league despite him only garnering 467 at-bats. Foxx finished second in the MVP vote that season.

1946

By the time Ted Williams won his first MVP Award in his first year back from war, he had already been robbed of two MVP’s. His lack of MVP’s, all things considered, has largely been attributed to him not getting along with the media members who voted for the awards.

In 1941, he batted .406, yet finished second to Joe DiMaggio for the award. DiMaggio batted .408 during his famous 56 game hit streak, just .002 better than Williams did for the entire season.

In 1942, Williams won the Triple Crown and led the league in just about every conceivable batting statistic. Somehow, he lost out to another Yankee on the Award. Joe Gordon won the award despite trailing in every statistic. His OPS was 237 points lower and he hit half as many home runs. Hmmm.

Williams finally got his due after returning from war. He led the league in on-base and slugging percentage and batted .342 with 38 home runs. As an encore, he led the league in even more categories, again winning the Triple Crown. Yet again, Williams somehow managed to finish second in the MVP vote while winning the Triple Crown. Joe DiMaggio was handed the award despite only hitting .315 with 20 home runs and 97 RBI.

Ted Williams of the Boston Red Sox receives his 1946 American League MVP Award from Joe Cashman of the BBWAA. (Photo by B Bennett/Getty Images)

1949

After a third-place finish in 1948, Williams won his second MVP Award in 49. He led the league in on-base and slugging percentage, home runs, doubles and runs batted in.

In 1950 he was having another great season before breaking his elbow at the All-Star Game after crashing into the outfield wall. Williams only played 89 games that year yet managed to hit 28 home runs and drive home 97 runs. He would have been his typical MVP deserving self had he not broken his elbow.

1958

A Red Sox not named Ted Williams managed to win the MVP before Williams’ playing days were over. Jackie Jensen won the Award in 1958, his fifth season with the Red Sox. Jensen hit 35 home runs and led the league with 122 RBI.

As a follow-up, Jensen again led the league in RBI in 1959 while hitting 28 home runs. He surpassed 100 runs batted in for the fifth time in six seasons with the team, finishing at 97 in the other season. Jensen also had his second 20-20 season with the Red Sox in 1959, stealing 20 bags while being caught just five times.

1967

We all know of Carl Yastrzemski’s 1967 season. He won the Triple Crown and led the Red Sox to the American League pennant that season. It was a career year for Yaz, but how did he finish the following season?

Well, his statistics dropped off quite a lot, but so did a lot of the league in the offensively-challenged 1968 season. In fact, Yaz won the batting title that season with a .301 average. He also led the league in on-base percentage and OPS. The biggest drop-off was his power, falling from 44 home runs in 1967 to 23 in 1968. With it, his RBI and slugging percentage tumbled.

1975

In 1975, Fred Lynn became the first rookie to win the MVP Award. To this day, he is joined only by Ichiro Suzuki, who at 27 was hardly a real rookie. Lynn led the league in doubles, on-base percentage and OPS that rookie season.

In 1976, although Lynn played well, his offense took a noticeable dip. Lynn batted an excellent .314, but with 10 home runs his total was less than half of his rookie season. Lynn also hit 15 less doubles and walked less. So, it was a solid season, but a far cry from his MVP campaign.

Lynn actually was the best player in the league in 1979, arguably his best season. Don Baylor won MVP after leading the league in RBI and making the playoffs. However, the Red Sox actually won three more games than the Angels, yet missed the playoffs. Lynn led the league in batting, on-base percentage and slugging that season while hitting 39 home runs. Somehow, he finished fourth in the voting.

1978

In the midst of a monster three-year stretch, Jim Rice put up his best season in 1978. He won the MVP Award that season and broke Jimmie Foxx’ 40-year-old franchise record for total bases in a season. Rice led the league in hits, home runs, RBI, triples, total bases, slugging and OPS.

Hi follow-up season wasn’t much worse. Rice hit a career high .325 in 1979 and launched 39 home runs. He again led the league in total bases and eclipsed 200 hits for the third season in a row.

Over the three year stretch he batted .320 with a .972 OPS. His average season had 207 base hits, 41 home runs, 12 triples and 128 RBI.

1986

Roger Clemens won the MVP in addition to the Cy Young Award in 1986. He is still the only pitcher in Red Sox history to do so, thanks to Pedro Martinez being robbed of the MVP in 1999. Clemens had a breakout season, leading the league in wins, ERA and WHIP. He struck out a record 20 batters in April of that season, a feat he would match ten years later.

Clemens did not disappoint in 1987. He again led the league in wins and won the Cy Young Award. He was 20-9 that year with a 2.97 ERA and 256 strike outs. His strike outs placed him second to Mark Langston and he finished third in ERA.

1995

Mo Vaughn wasn’t really the best player in the American League in 1995, but he had an excellent season and it led to the MVP Award. The Red Sox won the division title in large part to Mo’s bat. Mo batted .300 that year with 39 home runs and a league leading 126 runs batted in.

Mo was even better in his quest to win back-to-back MVP’s in 1996. Unfortunately, the team didn’t quite measure up. Vaughn had a career high 207 base hits, 44 home runs and 143 runs batted in that season. His batting line was an exquisite .326/.420/.583/1.003. This led to a fifth-place finish in the MVP voting despite the Red Sox third-place finish in the American League East.

2008

Following up his Rookie of the Year Award in 2007, Dustin Pedroia added every other award to his cabinet in 2008, taking home the MVP, Gold Glove and Silver Slugger. He led the league with 213 base hits and 54 doubles while playing great defense. His .326 average was tops on the team and he was a near perfect 20-21 on stolen bases.

In 2009 he fell off some, but he pretty much had to. Pedroia still batted .296 with 48 doubles. He stole 20 bases for the second straight season and played his usual stellar defense. His play led to a second straight all-star berth.

2018

Mookie Betts had a phenomenal 2018 season, leading the league in hitting (.346) and slugging (.640). He had a 30-30 season and bashed 48 doubles to boot. On top of it all, he won a Gold Glove for his continued excellence in right field.

So how will Mookie Betts follow up his MVP season? As you can see, most former Red Sox MVP’s only suffered small drop-offs the following season. All of them were still very good the following year. Betts was so good last year he almost has to drop off a little, but not much of one should be expected, and nothing in this history changes that viewpoint.

Featured picture from Masslive.com

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