Tag Archives: postseason

Red Sox Postseason Numbers Crunch in Bullpen

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The Red Sox face a roster crunch for the postseason. Many bullpen arms have stepped up down the stretch and pitching well in critical spots. Of course, not a bad problem to have. It does however beg the question, which ones will make the postseason team?

Bullpen Arms

Craig Kimbrel is obviously on the team as the closer. That’s the number-one bullpen spot. Addison Reed will no doubt set him up. Despite a couple hiccups with the Red Sox, Reed has pitched well since coming over. With reports that David Price will pitch out of the pen in the playoffs, that’s three automatic spots occupied. Price is intriguing out there. It’s been a long time since he shut the Red Sox down in the ALCS in his rookie season coming out of the pen. However, he doesn’t have to worry about lasting and can just rear back and throw. He could be an effective left-handed option for them in crucial spots. Price would also be available for multiple innings at times in big spots if innings are needed. As for the other options…

Matt Barnes has been with the team all year, leading with 66 appearances. He can be hit or miss though, and his 3.88 ERA is high compared to the teams other relievers. Is there a chance one of their most used relief pitchers over the last two seasons off the postseason roster? He does strike out a lot of players —  75 batters in 65 innings. He’s not very trustworthy though.

Heath Hembree has pitched for the Sox a lot this season, appearing in 60 contests as of this writing. Hembree has a decent 3.58 ERA, but his 1.46 WHIP is the worst of anyone with more than 20 appearances. He puts a lot of men on base, which would be awfully nerve-wracking in the playoffs. Hembree, like Barnes, strikes out more than a batter per inning.

Joe Kelly has to be on the roster. With his 2.68 ERA and .207 opponent average, I trust Kelly much more than I trust either Barnes or Hembree. His 100 mph heat can be overpowering and elicits a lot of weak contact.

Brandon Workman has been outstanding for the Sox since coming back from injury. He has worked 37.1 innings to a 2.41 ERA. He can work multiple innings if needed, and do so effectively, a key weapon to have in the postseason.

Carson Smith shows us all what we have been waiting for. Somehow fleecing the Mariners in acquiring Smith (and Elias) for Wade Miley, Smith hadn’t pitched in almost two seasons for the Sox until this month. In 2015 he struck out nearly 12 batters per nine innings and had a 2.31 ERA. This kid has an electric arm. Since returning, Smith has struck out five batters over 4.1 shutout innings. I’d want him on the roster.

Austin Maddox has come out of nowhere to throw his hat in the mix. A guy hardly anyone knew anything about not long ago, Maddox is a 26-year-old career minor leaguer. His career ERA in the minors is 4.27. He’s pitched better the further into his professional career he has gone, posting a sub 4.00 ERA each of the past three seasons. This year his ERA was below 3.00 combined between Portland and Pawtucket. Since joining the big club, Maddox has thrown 12.1 shutout innings! Very shocking. He has allowed only 10 base runners and struck out 10 batters.

For left handers, I have to think at least one other than Price will make it. We have two options. Robby Scott pitched great in a few appearances late last season. This year he has been a little up and down, but when you only face a couple batters a game at most, your ERA fluctuate wildly. Batters hit only .186 off of him and he has a 1.03 WHIP. Beyond that, lefties bat an anemic .131 versus Robby. His should only face a lefty in a big spot.  Why wouldn’t you want someone that dominant versus them?

The other option is Fernando Abad.   John Farrell can’t seem to get past the fact he stunk last year. Abad is 2-0 with a 2.98 ERA this season however, showing why Dombrowski acquired him to begin with. Abad has a much better ERA than Scott, but his peripherals aren’t as good, allowing more hits and putting more men on base. Also, he isn’t as effective at getting lefties out, which is what the Sox will need from their left hander in the pen.

If I were to pick, I would say Kimbrel, Reed, Price, Kelly, Workman, Smith and Scott. Could even choose to keep eight, with four starters instead of five it opens another roster spot. The 4th rotation spot seems to be up for grabs, but whoever loses out in that battle won’t make the playoff roster as a reliever.

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Red Sox Potential Playoff Scenarios

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As the season winds down playoff contenders are beginning to game-plan for their potential first round opponents. More than likely, the Sox will encounter either Houston or Cleveland in the ALDS. For the majority of the season, the Astros were the heavy favorite to win the AL due to their remarkable offense and above-average pitching staff. However, thanks to a historic run, the Indians have emerged as the clear AL favorite and possibly World Series favorite as well. The Tribe is currently sitting on a a 21-game win streak, an all time American League record. Meanwhile, Houston is just 18-21 since the beginning of August.  Safe to say that Red Sox Nation hopes to face Houston in the ALDS.

Houston is a favorable match-up for Boston

The Red Sox have no reason to think twice about playing the Astros in the first round. Houston is actually a sub .500 team since the All-Star break with a record of just 27-28. Sure, Correa, Springer and Keuchel have all spent time on the DL.  But a sub .500 performance doesn’t approach playoff-caliber baseball, despite any injuries a team undergoes.

On the other hand, the Red Sox have gone 32-23 since the All-Star break. Keuchel and Verlander hold down the front of Houston’s rotation.  An intimidating duo at first glance, but further speculation exposes their true identity. Keuchel has not pitched well lately. He owns an ERA of 5.59 over his last three starts. Verlander boasts an exceptional 2.20 ERA over the last month.  But baseball fans know he has become rather inconsistent in recent years. Due to Keuchel’s struggles and Verlander’s inconsistency, Houston’s rotation becomes a serious concern for Astros fans. As a staff, Houston’s pitchers own an ERA of 4.35 over the last month, which does not compare favorably to the Red Sox ERA of 3.87 over the same stretch. Also, the Astros offense has struggled down the stretch.  As a team they are batting a modest .244 over the past 28 days. With Houston’s mediocre second-half pitching, hitting and overall play they have fallen as a legitimate world series contender.  The Red Sox should be confident in their chances of beating them.

 

Why Cleveland is road block for the Sox

The Red Sox will likely have to play Cleveland at some point in the playoffs. This could be a potential problem.  But, remember that anyone can win come playoff time. As I mentioned earlier, the Indians are in the middle of a record-breaking win streak which currently stands at 21. Tito and company have certainly been playing phenomenal baseball as of late. During the streak they have outscored opponents 139-35 and have trailed in just five innings. Dominant starting pitching has led their success as they claimed 19 of the 21 wins during the streak.  In total, the Indians pitchers boast a 1.79 ERA during this incredible stretch.

Their spectacular offense has batted .284 and slugged 50 home runs since the start of the streak. The Red Sox will certainly have their hands full if they encounter the Tribe. Chris Sale’s poor career numbers against Cleveland remain a central concern for the Sox.  In his career he is 5-8 with a 4.78 ERA, certainly not Sale-like numbers. Despite Sale’s struggles against the Indians, I personally trust him on the mound in any situation. He has established himself as a true ace and an elite pitcher in the middle of a historic season. At the end of the day Chris Sale is Chris Sale and he should be trusted no matter the opponent.

American League Title is up for grabs

The postseason is going to be here before we know it. It appears that that the Red Sox will have to face Cleveland in order to make it to the World Series. Let us not forget that the city of Boston in underdog scenarios. With a big 11-1 thrashing over Oakland last night,  the Red Sox may be heating up just in time. This team has shown flashes of brilliance over the course of the season and I am sensing a joyfully dramatic playoff run for this group. When Boston plays their own brand of aggressive, tenacious and determined baseball, they can beat anyone. Red Sox Nation, I ask you to please remember this; Boston has already beaten Cleveland four times in seven tries this year.  They can do it again. Lets go Sox!  Win. Dance. Repeat.

 

 

*Statistics accurate as of 9/13/17* Follow me on twitter @MLBfromNH (Kevin Civiello)