Tag Archives: Scott Boras

Red Sox Confused, Worried, Anxious

Leave a reply

Have you ever been in a workplace where one person was promoted while another was passed over? Have you ever lost out to someone else when pursuing the same romantic connection? Have you ever worried about your future? The impending deadline for many Red Sox contracts is the elephant in the room. Here are the dynamics.

Chris Sale

Chris Sale got a hefty 5 year $150 Million extension. In the abstract this is a great deal. Sale is an all time pitcher for many reasons, and it’s only the 37th ranked deal in major league history. Considering how good Sale has been, and how most of the top deals are happening now, it was a nice job by Dombrowski.

If everything was going well, if the team was even .500, Sale’s slow start would be no big deal. He’s taking it slow. He’s really just had his third spring training start. He’ll be throwing 99 in September and October.

But things are not going well. Which opens the door for 2nd guessing. And not just by the media and fans.

Xander Bogaerts

Again, in a vacuum, a great deal. He’s only tied for #62 on the all time list. And he’s four years younger than Sale, and repped by Scott Boras. He’s a two time champ playing a premium position and one of the top Shortstops in the game. Record contracts are being handed out, and Dombrowski got him for 6 years, $120 Million. That’s actually a bargain.

He’s playing fine. He’s hitting .280 with an .899 OPS. That’s more than fine. But if he’s not worried about living up to his (underpaid but life changing) contract, does he run on Roman Laureano the second time?

Jackie Bradley Jr. and Mookie Betts

Bradley and Betts both have one year of arbitration left. But beyond Bogaerts and Sale, players all over baseball are getting contracts, including buying out the last year of arbitration. A lot of those players don’t have World Series rings on their resume.

Both of them are stubborn in their own way. Last year Jackie would brush away changing his swing due to shifts, and Mookie is turning down $200 Million deals because he thinks he’s worth more. Xander $120, Mookie $200 looks about right from here. But Mookie is looking at Mike Trout’s $426 Million.

Are they thinking about their contracts when they are not once, but twice, not communicating in the outfield? Were they questioning turning down contracts or how they deserve more? The first time they banged into each other, but the ball was caught. The second time it bounced between them for a two run double while they stood there. Somewhere in the Statcast universe there was a machine screaming that there was an 89% chance that ball would be caught.

And did Betts have his head on straight when he challenged the clearly greatest outfield defender of our generation Roman Laureno in the 9th inning?

Either way, now we’re here:

Rick Porcello

Porcello has been the perfect #3 starter for this team. Yes, he won a Cy Young when everything went perfectly, but he’s the steady guy who’s going to make 30 plus starts and never go on the Injured List.

One secret to his success is control. When do we loose control? When we are worried and anxious and unsure of our future. When things are uncertain. Porcello is up after 2019. He’s practically begged to be signed, saying he would give a hometown discount. And couldn’t Porcello say to himself that he’s never had to go on the Injured List. He’s actually won a Cy Young. Couldn’t he be looking sideways at Chris Sale and saying to himself “This guy gets paid but I don’t?” Don’t quote me on this, but I believe Porcello was one of the few pitchers not in the room when Sale’s extension was announced.

Yesterday was the first time since he was a young pup of 23 in 2012 that Porcello has walked at least 3 batters in back to back games. That’s one way of loosing control. Here’s another:

Some say this is a 2018 World Series hangover. From here this is a mass of confusion, worrying and anxiety about contracts.

It can be fixed. These guys have to have some pride right? It’s a 4.5 game deficit to first in the AL East right now. That’s not insurmountable, and so far the guys are healthy. But they better wake up soon.

Photo by Kim Klement – USA Today Sports

Follow @BostonsportSAHD

Bogaerts

The Brewers Are After Xander Bogaerts

Leave a reply

There are rumors out of Milwaukee that the Brewers are after Xander Bogaerts. Why would the Red Sox trade him, and what could they expect in return?

Salary

The Red Sox have painful salary issues coming after 2019. The MLB Luxury Tax is a big deal. The Red Sox are already losing draft positions and paying out millions.

Along with Bogaerts, Chris Sale and Rick Porcello will be free agents. JD Martinez has an opt-out, and will use it if he approximates his performance from last year. Mookie Betts’ arbitration numbers are going to exponentially expand.

Furthermore, Scott Boras represents Bogaerts, who just had a career year. Boras does not take hometown discounts. As for Bogaerts production, he hit the ball harder in 2018 than any year other than his 44 game cup of coffee in 2013. And he’s never hit it farther.

Is his 2018 a career year, or the natural progression of a top talent? It’s hard to take one year, that is an outlier against his other five in the majors, as the new baseline.

What The Sox Could Expect In Trade

Recently, Paul Goldschmidt was traded from the Diamondbacks to the Cardinals. Goldschmidt, like Xander, was in the last year of his deal.

Goldschmidt is the Diamondbacks all time leader in OPS, SLG, Walks, and WAR. In short, his is Arizona’s Mookie Betts. For this perennial MVP candidate, the Cardinals gave up Luke Weaver, Carson Kelly, Andy Young, and a draft pick. Weaver has had a modicum of success in the majors, and Kelly was a highly rated catching prospect who had a poor showing in 2018, while Young is a middling prospect.

Because of that trade, and Xander’s impending free agency, the Red Sox can expect something less. Xander simply isn’t in the class of Paul Goldschmidt. Think 24 year old SS Orlando Arcia, a slick defensive player, but number 9 hitter. He had a .661 OPS last year in Milwaukee. Add to that perhaps Freddy Peralta, who is 22 and went 6-4 with a 4.25 ERA, including 11 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9, in 2018. Peralta also had a typically dominant and wild game in the playoffs against the Dodgers. He pitched 3 innings, walked 3, struck out 6, and did not allow a hit.

Could the Red Sox get someone like 21 year old Keston Hiura added to the haul? That might make it worth it. Hiura plays 2nd Base, and had a particularly impressive Arizona Fall League Performance: .320 batting average with a .911 OPS. He hit .272/.755 over High A and Double A ball last year. Dustin Pedroia isn’t getting any younger.

Who knows, the Brewers may feel they owe Dombrowski for that Tyler Thornburg/Travis ‘Mayor of Ding Dong City’ Shaw trade from 2016, and include more in a deal. Either way, trading Xander Bogaerts would be no easy deal. He hit 4th for the majority of the year one of the greatest Red Sox team of all time. However, the Luxury Tax bill is coming due. Something has to give, sooner or later.

2018: The Year of Bogaerts

Leave a reply

After an offensive dive last season, 2018 is primed to be they breakout year we’ve all been waiting for when it comes to Xander Bogaerts.

After a season in which he suffered a hand injury, Bogaerts’s numbers hurt as well. In 2017, Xander hit .273 with 10 homers and 62 RBIs. Those numbers are surprisingly low following his amazing 2016 season, when he hit 21 homers and 89 RBIs to go along with a .294 batting average. With new manager Alex Cora in the mix, Xander Bogaerts is primed to have a career year.

Although spring training to me doesn’t evaluate much besides the prospects, X man is showing signs of prosperity. The starting shortstop is locating the pitches and shows flashes of the power that got his signed when he was 16. The Aruba native will only make $7,500,000 this season, and will become an unrestricted free agent after 2019. With super agent Scott Boras handling negotiations, odds are there will be no talks of an extension anytime soon.

Over the years his defense has improved. It can only get better from here. While being able to cover most of the left side of the field, he covers the middle as well. Compared to shortstops such as Correa, Lindor, and Simmons, Bogaerts is the cheaper option. What he makes up for in savings won’t deteriorate his value. He can slap the ball anywhere on the field with great precision.

While he could easily command a six year, $125 million deal, the potential is there with room for improvement. No fan of the sport has seen his ceiling. This could be the year he stays consistent throughout the entirety of the season.

Stat line Prediction for 2018:  

.313 BA, 26 home runs, 97 RBIs 

This prediction relies heavily on his health and consistency. These numbers could be achievable with having a clubhouse factor such as David Ortiz popping in as a player consultant this season. With all eyes pointed on New York, look out for Boston to defend their AL East crown?

 

Why Logan Morrison is the Better Option

2 Replies

The free agent first baseman isn’t the only power hitter waiting on a lucrative contract. But as he’s shown us before he can work on a small contract.

While Red Sox nation is still waiting on Dave Dombrowski to sign J.D. Martinez, there are other options available. One option that shouldn’t be overlooked is Logan Morrison. Last season with the Rays, he hit .246 with 38 homers and 85 RBIs. 

Even though the Red Sox have first base depth with Moreland, Travis, and Hanley, they need a power hitting righty to supplement Ramirez. He only needs 497 plate appearances for his $22 million vesting option for 2019. If healthy, that should be easily obtainable. Even though there’s a good chance the team could resign on a cheaper deal due to his lack of production and age.

Morrison would help provide in the home run department, as well as a leader the team has lacked. While veterans Dustin Pedroia and David Price didn’t step up as expected, both are committed for the long haul and willing to take charge. Morrison can also provide an above average glove at the position.

Last season, he had eight errors with a .993 fielding percentage with 1077.2 innings manning first base. Giving Moreland and Ramirez some well needed days off down the stretch. Which could be a key factor come playoff time due to the duration of the season. Time and time again depth has proven vital towards success of teams.

With the lackluster free agency movement this year, It wouldn’t take much to ink him on a one or two year deal. He is willing to DH (unlike Martinez) and wouldn’t command top dollar. This would help in the recruitment of Bryce Harper, Manny Machado sweepstakes next offseason. Boston can be rest assured a playoff contending team, without the Scott Boras haste until next year.

 

Cover image courtesy of MLB- NBC Sports.

What if JD Doesn’t Sign with Boston?

Leave a reply

Holding Until Spring Training

It’s the end of January. The MLB offseason is reaching its end and the Boston Red Sox haven’t made any notable moves besides the return of Moreland. The Sox are the front runners in the JD Martinez sweepstakes and he has yet to sign. The five year $100 million dollar deal the Sox offered has been on hold. The Scott Boras client even went on to say he would hold out until Spring Training to accept an offer. That’s flat out ridiculous, and this should make every Red Sox fan annoyed. The more I think of it, it wouldn’t be a bad thing if JD doesn’t sign with Boston. It may save the Red Sox some cash if they don’t sign Martinez, looking toward next offseason.

(Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

Contract Years

Craig Kimbrel, Drew Pomeranz, and Joe Kelly are all potentially becoming free agents next year. It would be ideal for the Sox to sign back at least Kimbrell, who’s going to be asking for a hefty contract. If Pomeranz produces similarly to last year, then you can expect him to receive around a three or four year offer. Adding to that David Price, Chris Sale, and Hanley Ramirez are in their respective “opt-out” years, where it will depend on how well they perform in 2018. With players going into arbitration, Matt Barnes and Heath Hembree are entering their first years. Mookie, Bradley, and Bogaerts are also entering their second and third years so they will be expecting more money.

This also comes at a time where players in the likes of Bryce Harper and Manny Machado hit free agency. Clayton Kershaw and Elvis Andrus are entering “opt-out” years as well. If you really want to look ahead on it, Boston might want to start planning on possibly resigning Chris Sale next season as well as Paul Goldschmidt hitting free agency.

So to be honest, I would be totally fine on not signing JD this offseason. As long as we have Chris Sale and Paul Goldschmidt in 2020 (I can dream, right?).