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Bogaerts

The Brewers Are After Xander Bogaerts

There are rumors out of Milwaukee that the Brewers are after Xander Bogaerts. Why would the Red Sox trade him, and what could they expect in return?

Salary

The Red Sox have painful salary issues coming after 2019. The MLB Luxury Tax is a big deal. The Red Sox are already losing draft positions and paying out millions.

Along with Bogaerts, Chris Sale and Rick Porcello will be free agents. JD Martinez has an opt-out, and will use it if he approximates his performance from last year. Mookie Betts’ arbitration numbers are going to exponentially expand.

Furthermore, Scott Boras represents Bogaerts, who just had a career year. Boras does not take hometown discounts. As for Bogaerts production, he hit the ball harder in 2018 than any year other than his 44 game cup of coffee in 2013. And he’s never hit it farther.

Is his 2018 a career year, or the natural progression of a top talent? It’s hard to take one year, that is an outlier against his other five in the majors, as the new baseline.

What The Sox Could Expect In Trade

Recently, Paul Goldschmidt was traded from the Diamondbacks to the Cardinals. Goldschmidt, like Xander, was in the last year of his deal.

Goldschmidt is the Diamondbacks all time leader in OPS, SLG, Walks, and WAR. In short, his is Arizona’s Mookie Betts. For this perennial MVP candidate, the Cardinals gave up Luke Weaver, Carson Kelly, Andy Young, and a draft pick. Weaver has had a modicum of success in the majors, and Kelly was a highly rated catching prospect who had a poor showing in 2018, while Young is a middling prospect.

Because of that trade, and Xander’s impending free agency, the Red Sox can expect something less. Xander simply isn’t in the class of Paul Goldschmidt. Think 24 year old SS Orlando Arcia, a slick defensive player, but number 9 hitter. He had a .661 OPS last year in Milwaukee. Add to that perhaps Freddy Peralta, who is 22 and went 6-4 with a 4.25 ERA, including 11 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9, in 2018. Peralta also had a typically dominant and wild game in the playoffs against the Dodgers. He pitched 3 innings, walked 3, struck out 6, and did not allow a hit.

Could the Red Sox get someone like 21 year old Keston Hiura added to the haul? That might make it worth it. Hiura plays 2nd Base, and had a particularly impressive Arizona Fall League Performance: .320 batting average with a .911 OPS. He hit .272/.755 over High A and Double A ball last year. Dustin Pedroia isn’t getting any younger.

Who knows, the Brewers may feel they owe Dombrowski for that Tyler Thornburg/Travis ‘Mayor of Ding Dong City’ Shaw trade from 2016, and include more in a deal. Either way, trading Xander Bogaerts would be no easy deal. He hit 4th for the majority of the year one of the greatest Red Sox team of all time. However, the Luxury Tax bill is coming due. Something has to give, sooner or later.

Red Sox Shut Down Tyler Thornburg

Red Sox manager Alex Cora made an unsurprising announcement earlier this week when he revealed that reliever Tyler Thornburg would be shut down for the remainder of 2018.

There were two glaring reasons for this call by Cora. First, Thornburg’s recovery from thoracic outlet syndrome is ongoing. That injury caused him to miss all of 2017 and much of 2018. While the 29 year-old righty made progress this season, his manager noted he was beginning to fatigue down the stretch.

“There’s no need to push him hard,” Cora told reporters prior to Wednesday’s doubleheader vs. Baltimore. Which, of course, makes perfect sense given the severity of TOS.

However, if Thornburg had performed at a high level in his return to the Boston bullpen mix, would Cora be singing the same tune?

The second obvious reason for giving Thornburg the rest of the autumn off renders that question moot. Thornburg simply hasn’t been effective this season. He posted a 5.63 ERA over 24 innings in 25 appearances, with unflattering peripherals. His last outing was on Sept. 14th, in which he allowed three runs in 2/3rds of an inning (and two HR).

Thornburg’s velocity never really bounced back to 2016 levels, either. Per Brooks Baseball, Thornburg’s average fastball velocity was two mph slower than his last year in Milwaukee.

Mix all of that together, and the smart move was clearly to shut down Thornburg for the year. You won’t get any qualms from me there. However, it does sting to have to mark up yet another effectively lost season for one of Dave Dombrowski’s premier bullpen acquisitions, especially with so many questions swirling about this group of relievers.

The Red Sox acquired Thornburg via trade from the Brewers in December 2016. At the time, the move made total sense. Outgoing Travis Shaw had proven to be a solid, yet unspectacular corner infield option. And, after striking out on Carson Smith Boston felt that another quality reliever was the missing piece to October success.

To his credit, Thornburg was coming off of an excellent 2016. He posted a 2.67 ERA with 12.1 K/9 and 13 saves as the Brewers set-up man in front of closer Jeremy Jeffress. The hope was to combine Thornburg with Smith, to provide a formidable 7th-8th inning duo come playoff time.

Unfortunately for the Sox, things went off of the rails almost immediately. Thornburg injured his shoulder that spring, which led to a war of words between him and the front office. Thornburg claimed that a new fitness program implemented by the Red Sox training staff caused the injury, which ruffled more than a few feathers around the organization. That shoulder fatigue/soreness only worsened as the year went along. The right-hander did not throw a pitch for the Sox in 2017.

Not helping matters in all of this: Shaw has turned into a strong infield power bat for the Brew Crew. In 293 games across two seasons, Shaw has slashed .258/.348/.497 with 62 HR and a 120 OPS+. He’s amassed 8.1 bWAR over that span, compared to Thornburg’s -0.1 bWAR. Any way you slice it, the trade has been a huge win for Milwaukee, and a difficult pill to swallow for the Red Sox.

Thornburg underwent surgery in June, after his shoulder pain continued into 2018. He was finally able to make his Red Sox debut on July 6th. While this season has been a step in the right direction, it hasn’t been enough to earn him a spot on the playoff roster.

The plan is that a full, proper offseason will go a long way toward’s Thornburg’s continued recovery, and ensure he’ll be a contributing member of next season’s roster. Although, as the Red Sox have learned: people plan, and the Baseball Gods laugh.

Dave Dombrowski Has Killed The Farm System

With only two prospects in the top 100, Dave’s win now philosophy has killed the backup plan If we cannot resign all these players.

Yes, Dave Dombrowski has brought in some serious talent to Boston over the years, but we simply cannot resign them all. Chris Sale and Craig Kimbrel has done astonishingly well thus far, but what about the Drew Pomeranz, Carson Smith, and Tyler Thornburg? While Losing big name prospects such as: Anderson Espinoza, Travis Shaw, Manuel Margot, and Mauricio Dubon.

Not saying these trades weren’t beneficial, but with the cap room looking tight already, it is going to be a challenge to resign these guys. With guys already in line to ink up max deals. Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, and Xander Bogaerts should all command huge contracts, which will spike up the luxury tax for sure. It makes it harder for the team to compete in free agency for guys like: Bryce Harper, and Manny Machado exclusively.

The farm system now ranks 15th in all of baseball. With Jason Groome ( Tommy john) and Micheal Chavis ( 80 game suspension) as the only two guys in the top 100. Leaving scraps for developed prospects. Guys like Tanner Houck, Trey Ball, and Josh Ockimey aren’t eye popping players yet. They need to restock the farm system in some way via trade or an over abundance of draft picks in coming years.

While nobody would expect a dominant regular season from the likes of Ben Cherington and John Farrell respectfully, Alex Cora has been a great compliment to dealing Dave. While we wait and watch another trade deadline come and pass, we can only imagine what him and the front office has in store.

What will the legacy be after it’s all said and done? Maybe we will find out about Hanley Ramirez too. Until then, we let the cards fold as they be.

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