I was making the rounds on the Red Sox news circuit yesterday when I came to a sudden realization. This is going to be a boring offseason.
Granted, it’s still incredibly early on. The non-tender deadline for arbitration-eligible players (the first major offseason date) is later tonight at 8 pm ET. The Winter Meetings don’t kick off until December 9th. MLB’s hot stove has been relatively cool thus far, outside of a handful of moves ranging from “Indifferent Shrug” to “Okay, That’s Interesting”. Both New York teams have led the charge by shopping at the Great Seattle Mariners Fire Sale of 2018. The Yankees acquired lefty James Paxton on November 20. Meanwhile, the Mets traded for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz. The Red Sox, for their part, haven’t really been involved in much of the early action. There haven’t been any rumors of that changing any time soon.
That makes total sense for a 108-win champion coming off of the best season in franchise history. Boston will likely be returning most of the core group that led 2018’s title run. It has already brought back World Series MVP Steve Pearce on a team friendly 1-year deal and restructured/extended Alex Cora’s current deal through 2021. Both moves were no-brainers, and the Sox moved quickly to tie up those loose ends. The Red Sox also took a flyer on 25-year-old reliever Colten Brewer. Beyond that, the only real questions with this roster involve Craig Kimbrel, Nathan Eovaldi, and which of their homegrown core they can lock up long-term.
It’s a change of pace from last year’s eons-long pursuit of JD Martinez. It’s also a far cry from splashy offseasons like 2014 and 2015. I didn’t hear any reports of Dave Dombrowski sitting down for Thanksgiving dinner with Madison Bumgarner like Theo Epstein did with Curt Schilling in 2003. Trying to decide which sub-70 OPS+ catcher to move on isn’t a fun conversation to have on sports talk radio. The minutiae of sussing out a 6th or 7th reliever don’t really move the needle for many fans. There is some intrigue around second base and Dustin Pedroia’s status moving forward. And, while I personally think first base is an area to upgrade, the team seems happy with their Peace/Mitch Moreland platoon.
Winter can be fickle, and Dombrowski has never been shy about making blockbusters happen. Standing pat after a season where nearly everything went right can be risky, too. However, should the Sox choose to mostly shuffle some minor pieces around while keeping most of a championship roster intact, it will be hard to complain. This team doesn’t feel quite as one-hit-wonder-y as 2013, and doesn’t have as many players set to depart as 2004. The best comparison is 2007. That offseason, a strong mix of young, homegrown talent and veteran stars made it easy to roll things over to 2008.
Besides, next offseason looms large. Some key players that are up for extensions in 2019: Moreland, Martinez (player option) Chris Sale, Rick Porcello, and Xander Bogaerts. Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley become unrestricted free agents the following year. It may be best for Boston to keep its books as clean as possible, with that in mind. That is unless they plan on acquiring a player with the intent to replace one of those guys over the long term.
As is always the case, we’ll have no choice to wait and see what happens. But if push comes to shove, I’m fine if the only offseason addition the Red Sox make is another World Series trophy to their display case.
Let’s make one thing clear: If you’re looking for a collection of words bashing Celtics’ center Al Horford, you’ve come to the wrong place. Horford’s game undoubtedly takes a bit of nuanced viewing to appreciate, and he affects the Celtics positively in ways that don’t always appear in a box score.
However, with Boston scuffling through its first 13 games this year, every player is under a microscope. That includes Horford, who is averaging career lows in rebounds per game and field goal percentage so far this season. Horford is the C’s engine on both ends. When that engine sputters, he becomes a logical target for midday radio hosts and columnists looking to stir the pot.
But how much has the Puerto Plata native contributed to the Celtics’ early season struggles? Let’s run through a few stats to get a clearer picture.
Efficiency Issues
It’s no secret that the Celtics have been atrocious offensively this season. Boston ranks 26th in points per possession, and 28th in field goal percentage. Without getting into it too deeply, this team simply doesn’t attack the rim, doesn’t get to the line, settles for too many low-efficiency shots, and misses too many open looks.
In many ways, Horford has been emblematic of those issues. The former Florida Gator is attempting more threes (4.5 per game) than ever before, yet is only converting at a 27.6% clip. That would be his lowest mark since he stretched his range out consistently behind the arc in 2016.
It’s early, and a slow shooting start can be corrected. More troubling, perhaps, is how his efficiency at the rim has dipped too. From 2013-18, Horford shot 74.3% on attempts inside of three feet, per Basketball Reference. This season, that number has fallen to 66.7% on such shots.
67% isn’t bad, by any stretch. But combined with shooting more threes at a worse rate than ever before, Horford’s efficiency in a key shooting area becomes magnified. The result is a career low 44.3 FG% and a 50.0 eFG%, his lowest mark since his rookie year. Throw in a career-low 63.6% from the line, and you have a bonafide slow offensive start.
Dirty Glass
Horford hasn’t been an above average rebounder since his early days in Atlanta. As he’s expanded his offensive arsenal to the three-point line, his rebounding numbers have steadily declined. However, he has been a consistently solid defensive rebounder, and his ability to grab-and-go makes him a unique weapon in the modern NBA.
Unfortunately, Horford has been even worse than usual at cleaning up the boards. His 10.5% Total Rebound Rate is a career low, sunk by his career low defensive rebounding rate (15%). As with any small sample size, these numbers could change with strong stretch. When examining Boston’s early season woes, however, these stats seem relevant. The C’s currently rank 20th in rebounding rate, after finishing 11th by that metric last season.
Symptoms, Not The Cause
While some aspects of Horford’s slow start have been a part of why the Celtics have looked disjointed out of the gate, ultimately his play has been a symptom of that, and not the cause. The C’s still lead the league in defensive rating, thanks in large part to Horford’s continued excellence on that end. Horford’s current 4.4% block rate would be a career high, and he looks as solid as ever on his rotations.
Additionally, that Horford has only managed a 19.7% assist rate (his lowest since joining the C’s) speaks more to Boston’s inability to convert open looks than it does a decline in his ability to facilitate the offense. Per NBA.com, the Celtics have attempted the second most “wide open” looks, yet have only converted at the 14th-best rate on those looks. They’ve attempted the most “open” looks, too, with similarly uninspiring results. Those numbers should tick up a bit, and Horford will benefit.
Ultimately, the Celtics’ center’s 12-6-4 per game averages aren’t eye-popping, but there’s plenty of room to improve. Time will tell if Horford’s slow start morphs into a slow season. If it does, the Celtics might be in even more trouble than we thought.
Kyrie Irving had a team-high 28 points and the Celtics drilled a franchise record 24 threes to hand the Bucks their first loss of the season on Thursday night. A few quick thoughts on last night’s wild win coming up right after I stop smiling like a doofus at this video…
The Celtics are still being careful with Hayward, with good reason. The star forward has been understandably inconsistent in his first 7 games, as he shakes off rust and continues to make his way back from last season’s gruesome injury. However, last night he showed flashes of why he was such a highly sought after free agent two summers ago. Hayward scored a season-high 18 points on 6-of-11 shooting, and added 4 rebounds and 5 assists. He drilled three triples as well, and is shooting 40.7% from downtown so far this year.
Hayward’s most encouraging moment came early in the 1st quarter:
That play is a microcosm of what a healthy Hayward brings to the table. Smart defense (and the athleticism to execute), the ability to go coast to coast, and finish strong in traffic. Hayward has now attempted double-digit shots in three straight games, a sure sign that his game is beginning to round into form.
The Celtics still have as good a chance as anyone to make the Finals this year. But they’ll likely have to go through Giannis and Kawhi Leonard to do it, making things a taller task than expected a couple of months ago.
Get ‘Em Mook!
Marcus Morris has been huge this season. With Gordon Hayward working his way back to form, the C’s have needed one of their top role players to step up. He’s done that, and more. After last night’s 17 point, 5 rebound performance, Morris is averaging 14.8 points and 7.1 boards in only 25.3 minutes per game. It helps that he’s been on fire from beyond the arc. He’s drilling threes at a 51.3% clip, including a 5-for-8 performance from downtown on Thursday.
There was some question entering the season whether or not Morris would have a defined role with the return of Hayward and the continued progression of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. As fate would have it, he’s been more important than ever.
Shot Selection Struggles
On one hand, last night was an improvement in this area. 55 attempted three pointers is better than the bevy of long twos we had seen through the first 7 games. It also helps when you make 24 of those shots.
Yet, despite nearly setting an NBA record with made threes, the Celtics nearly coughed this one away late. They’ll continue to find themselves in that position as long as they remain allergic to attacking the rim and getting in the paint. Boston is dead last in field goals attempted within 8 feet. They’re also only 13th in field goal percentage within that range. For comparison’s sake, Golden State has attempted the second fewest shots inside 8 feet, but is 1st in field goal percentage. It’s really difficult to build a championship level offense around that combination of lack of volume and middle of the road efficiency, especially when you aren’t getting to the line either (C’s are 26th in free throws attempted per game). The numbers bear that out: the Celtics currently rank 27th in ORtg.
Simply making more threes like they did against Milwaukee will be helpful towards rectifying things. But not being able to get easy buckets late was an issue last night. The Celtics missed their last 6 field goal attempts (4 threes and 2 mid-range jumpers). That gave the Bucks an opening which they couldn’t take advantage of. It’s absolutely something to keep an eye on going forward.
Don’t look now, but after a sluggish 2-2 start the C’s are 6-2 (a 61.5 win pace). They’ll take their 4 game winning streak on the road for the next 5 games, starting on Saturday night in Indiana vs. the Pacers.
Game 1 of the World Series always feels the most special. There’s the pregame ceremonies and introductions giving added pomp to the proceedings, and a certain buzz that only exists when any and all outcomes are possible. As the series progresses, that “special” vibe is replaced by crushing existential dread hanging on every pitch, which only grows stronger with each passing game. But prior to the first game fans are still comfortable enough to do things like (rightfully) cheer on the opposing manager.
This is awesome: Boston cheers 2004 ALCS hero Dave Roberts during lineup introductions 👏 (via @MLB)pic.twitter.com/PBsTLKSYbn
Good news for Red Sox fans: There was plenty more to cheer about over the course of Tuesday night’s 8-4 win.
It’s no secret that the Sox strength lies in the top of their lineup, which contains a Murderers’ Quartet of Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, JD Martinez, and Xander Bogaerts. Here’s how they attacked Clayton Kershaw to kick things off in the bottom of the 1st:
Betts singled to center, stole second base, and won free tacos for America.
Benintendi slipped a hit through the hole into left field (scoring Betts), and took second on the throw home.
Steve Pearce popped out.
Martinez singled to center, scoring Benintendi.
2-0 Red Sox, before the Dodgers even had a chance to breathe. Los Angeles would continue to battle back throughout the early and middle innings, but Boston never trailed in this one. The Sox have had their fair share of fast starts this postseason, and continuing to do so in this series will go a long way towards winning the whole thing. Kershaw only lasted 4+ innings and was charged 5 earned runs, thanks to Boston’s relentless attack (and Martinez and Rafael Devers continually clutch postseason).
It’s a good thing, too, because the Red Sox ace didn’t have his best stuff either. Granted, Chris Sale may have still been recovering from a mysterious stomach injury that held him out of Game 5 of the ALCS. However, it was clear he didn’t have his best stuff. The Dodgers have been excellent all year at laying off pitches out of the zone, and Tuesday was no different. Sale threw 91 pitches, but only 54 (59%) for strikes. He positively labored through the first three innings especially, and wasn’t allowed to run through the LA lineup a third time. The velocity was sort of there, and his breaking stuff looked good, but he struggled to find the plate and was punished for mistakes:
Fortunately for Sale (and the Red Sox), the bullpen continues to be the surprise of the playoffs. It was another strong showing from the Boston relievers: 5 innings, 1 run, and importantly only 1 walk. When Joe Kelly is throwing changeups like this, you know things are going your way. Seriously, look at this thing:
On a similar point, Alex Cora is on absolute fire. This guy can’t miss, and you can doubt his moves at your own peril. He let Sandy León hit. León responded with a pair of singles in the same game for the first time since 1892. He brought in Nathan Eovaldi in the 8th to bridge the gap to Craig Kimbrel. Eovaldi was lights out. He even pinch hit Eduardo Nunez for Rafael Devers in the bottom of the 7th, despite pleas from Red Sox Nation to “please god don’t even think about it” (roughly paraphrasing there).
When you’re hot, you’re hot. And right now, Cora is pushing all of the right buttons.
Even Kimbrel came on in the 9th and looked like the guy he’s been for nearly all of his career. Straight gas, straight dominance. There’s still plenty of baseball to play, but it’s tough to ask for a better start for the Sox in this series.
Key to World Series Game 2
One last thing, that I’ll be watching for tonight: How will Roberts deploy his lineup and bench against David Price? In Game 1 the Dodgers manager went all righties against Sale, will he do the same in Game 2 or roll with his best guys? Either way, it’s interesting how Cora looked like the guy who has managed in a World Series before, while Roberts’ micro-managing screamed “first year on the job”. We’ll see if that script flips.
More than anything else, this has been a season about silencing the haters and doubters. The Red Sox won back to back AL East titles in 2016 and 2017, but only had a single playoff win to show for it. Mookie Betts followed up an MVP runner-up season with a step back last year. Jackie Bradley Jr is a killer outfielder who couldn’t hit his way out of a paper bag. Alex Cora was a first year manager taking over the team with baseball’s largest payroll. David Price had more than enough demons to deal with. JD Martinez was a premier free agent signing, but he wasn’t Giancarlo Stanton. And that’s just scratching the surface.
The list of question marks entering this season seemed endless.The Sox responded for seven months with nothing but definitive, defiant, and resounding answers en route to a franchise record 108 wins. Even so, the questions started creeping in once more after a tough game loss to the Astros. Boston rose to the challenge yet again.
On Thursday night, the Red Sox won their 115th game of the season to punch their ticket to the World Series, beating the defending champs in 5 games. Any questions anyone had about this team has been officially rendered moot.
David Price Steps Up
Game 5’s story starts with David Price. With Chris Sale sidelined an extra game with a stomach illness, and the bullpen taxed to the limit, Boston needed their most expensive player to come through. Price, finally and triumphantly, delivered.
The left-hander tossed 6 shutout innings, allowing only three hits and striking out 9. He had all his pitches working, and located them with ease.
Price has gotten so much flak for his past postseason struggles, but he absolutely rose to the challenge in a huge spot last night. As John Lackey can attest, the quickest way to win over Red Sox Nation is to win in October. It looks like Price is well on his way to doing just that.
Devers and Martinez Go Yard
JD Martinez got the Sox going in the top of the 3rd with this absolute ROCKET to left field:
Martinez was 1-11 through the first three games of this series, but he turned it on in Games 4 and 5, going 4-7 with a HR and a pair of RBI. If he can keep it going through the World Series, the Brewers or Dodgers will be in trouble.
The difference in this one was a 3-run Devers dinger in the top of the 6th.
Rafael Devers with a three-run bomb off one of the best postseason pitchers of all-time on a damn school night. pic.twitter.com/6pG0hqqizA
Remember earlier in this postseason when Eduardo Nunez was the starting third baseman? Yeah, me neither. Devers continues to be clutch in the playoffs. Some quick stats floating around during the game last night:
Devers has joined the short list of players with 3+ postseason homers before their 22nd birthday. The other names on the list: Mickey Mantle, Miguel Cabrera, Bryce Harper, and Andruw Jones.
Here’s Raffy’s line through 10 playoff games: 36 PA, .354/.417/.645, 3 HR, 12 RBI.
I’m starting to think this kid might have a bright future ahead of him.
Jackie Bradley Jr: ALCS MVP
That’s right, Jackie Bradley Jr. was the most valuable player in this series. He only had 3 hits in 17 at-bats, but he made each one count. His 9 RBI were a series high, and the Sox absolutely could not have done it without him. Bradley has often been a divisive player, whose defensive prowess is consistently at odds with his lack of offensive consistency. But, he’s the longest tenured everyday player on the roster, and it’s awesome to see him have his moment in the postseason.
Other Observations
What a sick twist of fate that Game 4’s controversial fan interference call was essentially erased by an almost identical play by Betts last night. If you needed any more evidence that the Curse of the Bambino is long gone, look no further.
Alex Bregman probably regrets logging into Instagram before Game 3, huh? Price wasn’t about to let him forget it, either. Good news is the Astros third baseman will have plenty of time to mull things over this winter.
Cora was occasionally unconventional, and occasionally left me scratching my head over some of his choices. None of it mattered. He’s pushed just about every right button through the first two rounds of postseason play.
Nathan Eovaldi has been nails all postseason. He came up big yet again with four outs late in this one, to bridge the gap to Craig Kimbrel in the 9th. For all of the chatter about Dave Dombrowski’s inability to address the bullpen midseason, he absolutely crushed the Eovaldi and Steve Pearce acquisitions.
Craig Kimbrel wasn’t perfect, but he looked better than he has in weeks. Hopefully that’s a sign he’s coming out of this funk.
The Red Sox have 4 more wins to go before winning their 4th championship in 15 seasons. October 23rd can’t come soon enough. For now, time to celebrate. What a night, what a series, what a win.
The Red Sox nudged ahead in the race for the AL pennant on Tuesday night, beating the Astros 8-2 to take a 2-1 series lead. There’s been plenty of good and bad from the Sox through three games so far. Let’s dive in.
3 Up
Jackie Bradley Jr.– Let’s kick things off with the biggest story from Game 3. With 2 outs in the top of the eighth, and the Sox clinging to a 4-2 lead, Roberto Osuna tried to sneak a fastball by JBJ. Bradley launched that pitch into orbit:
Bradley Jr. now has 7 RBIs in 3 games in the ALCS. For comparison, David Ortiz had 11 RBIs in 7 games in 2004. The Red Sox centerfielder only has two hits this series, but he’s made them count.
Any offense from Bradley Jr. is a welcome bonus, of course. But, it’s great to see him have a postseason moment after a strong finish to the regular season (.282/.349/.501 after June 23rd).
Steve Pearce – Prior to JBJ’s Grandest Slammy in the 8th, the biggest moment of Game 3 was Steve Pearce wrapping a shot around the left field foul pole to give the Red Sox a 3-2 lead in the 6th.
I’ve said it before, but this guy has been a game-changing pickup for Boston. Mitch Moreland has been sidelined by a sore hamstring, and Pearce has just taken over. The 35 year old utility man has hit .304 this postseason, and provided excellent defense at first base to boot. Moreland has been the guy at that corner for most of the season, but Alex Cora has been rewarded for riding the hot bat/glove.
Red Sox Bullpen – Is the Boston bullpen actually…good? In 12.1 innings this series, Sox relievers have posted a 3.66 ERA. That includes Brandon Workman’s Game 1 implosion. Otherwise, they’ve been damn near shutdown. That’s huge, considering how big of a weak spot that aspect of the team appeared to be coming into the playoffs.
I wrote in September that the Sox could win in October without a dominant bullpen. It seems like they’re holding up their end of the bargain, so far.
3 Down
JD Martinez – Martinez drove in the first run of Game 3 with an RBI double down the right field line. Outside of that, he’s been a complete non-factor. Martinez has mustered only 1 hit in 11 ABs, and has only reached base an additional 2 times. The Astros have been feeding him a steady diet of low and away breaking balls, and it’s working so far.
If the Red Sox plan on closing this series out, they’ll likely need their anchor to come through in a big spot. We’ll see if he can snap out of this funk.
Postseason Price – Good news: a Major League Baseball team won a postseason game started by David Price. Bad news: David Price still didn’t get the win, after getting pulled from Boston’s Game 2 victory midway through the 5th inning.
I’m not going to re-tread tired ground too much here, but it continues to amaze me that a pitcher with so much success continues to bring next to no value in the postseason. As of now, the Sox will be turning to Price in Game 6 (if necessary). That is still a frightening prospect.
Third Base Defense – This is turning into a black hole. Cora keeps throwing Eduardo Nunez into the mix, and Nunez continues to misplay ground balls and terrify all of New England.
Rafael Devers has gotten some run as well at the hot corner, and has at least hit the ball. Unfortunately, he’s not exactly Brooks Robinson in the field either. That reality reared its ugly head during the bottom of the 5th:
Rick Porcello takes the mound against Charlie Morton in Game 4 tonight. Porcello has been gutsy as hell this October. Another big time performance will give the Sox a commanding lead in this series.
A few quick thoughts on the return of Red Sox-Yankees postseason baseball, right after I hand out some high fives to Will, Chuckie, Morgan, and Billy…
What a way to kick things off, huh? The Sox jumped out early, and managed to hang on for a 5-4 win to take Game 1 at Fenway Park. Boston hit the ground running, thanks to a 3-run laser over the Monster from JD Martinez:
From there, the Sox seemed like they were on cruise control, extending the lead to 5-0 after plating a couple more runs in the third. Everything was working in their favor early. Guys were getting on base. Alleged “Red Sox Killer” JA Happ was bounced after 2+ innings. Chris Sale was dealing.
Then, Alex Cora decided to take his ace out in the top of the 6th, and it all (almost) went to hell.
I completely understand the logic behind pulling Sale. He wasn’t right all September, and the plan all season long has been to conserve the lanky lefty as much as possible. Sale also had allowed two hits already that inning, and had thrown 93 pitches (his highest total since July 27th).
On the flip side, Sale was nearly untouchable while he was in the game. His much scrutinized fastball velocity returned to the 94-96 mph range, after sitting in the low 90s during his final regular season start. His slider was in peak form, both in terms of break and placement:
Sale was charged with 2 runs in 5.1 innings, while striking out 8. All things considered, it was a great bounce back performance from his last postseason start. However, it wasn’t enough for Cora to trust him to work out of a 6th inning jam.
The Yankees immediately stormed back with Sale out, while Ryan Brasier and Brandon Workman took turns spiking curves 8 feet in front of home plate. To Workman’s credit, he did manage to stop the sixth inning bleeding with a BALLSY 3-2 hook to Gleyber Torres with the bases juiced.
Brandon Workman striking out Gleyber Torres with the bases loaded and a full count was HUGE pic.twitter.com/da5eYGwQtd
Cora stuck with Workman to start the 7th, and he promptly gave up a pair of singles to Andrew McCutchen and Aaron Judge. Enter Matt Barnes, who then walked Brett Gardner to load the bases.
Barnes eventually was able to slither out of trouble, allowing only one run to score on a fielder’s choice.
All of this is to say that things were so indescribably shaky that Cora felt the need to bring in former AL Cy Young Award winner and scheduled Game 3 starter Rick Porcello to bridge the gap to Craig Kimbrel. It worked – Porcello recorded two 8th inning outs on only 15 pitches to set up a 4-out save for Kimbrel. However, it was a move that reeked of desperation. Perhaps a more seasoned manager would not have pressed the Porcello panic button in Game 1. Either way, it goes to show that this Sox bullpen is clearly going to be a problem going forward this postseason.
Kimbrel was able to shut the door on this one, despite giving up a leadoff home run to Judge in the 9th. Outside of that, Kimbrel had his good stuff, including this obscene knuckle-curve to hand Giancarlo Stanton his Golden Sombrero:
Kimbrel mopped up Luke Voit with a 98 mph heater to end it, and give the Sox a white-knuckle playoff win. Phew.
Other Observations
David Price is on the hill tonight for the Sox. I feel better about him in a Game 2 at home than an elimination game in Yankee Stadium. That isn’t saying much.
The Red Sox bullpen wasn’t great (le duh). The bottom of the lineup, however, was even worse. Nunez, Kinsler, Leon and Bradley went a combined 1-13. Granted, the Sox have been top-heavy all season long. But it’s hard to feel great about their chances this month if the bottom half is going to be a collective zero.
It’s hard to fear Stanton after a 4 K effort at the plate. I am, however, terrified of Voit and Judge. Just wanted to update where my head is at.
Sandy Leon was the real MVP last night. He made block after block while the Red Sox middle relievers played “Who Can Bounce A Baseball Best?”. On a night where Ron Darling described Gary Sanchez as an “excellent” defensive catcher, it was nice to see Leon step up and show why he’s in the lineup.
All that being said, HUGE win in Game 1, to (somewhat) silence the doubters that this 108-win team would get steamrolled by their second-place rivals. We’re on to Game 2.
It’s pretty hard to believe it’s been 14 years since we’ve had a playoff series featuring Major League Baseball’s premier rivalry. The Red Sox and Yankees will kick off their first postseason matchup since 2004 later tonight, and on paper it looks to be a doozy. Two 100-win juggernauts. Over $400 million in combined payroll. Stars all over the diamond. History everywhere. I can’t wait.
I’ll be breaking down both sides of this series, and then picking a winner at the end. But before we get into all of that, let’s take a little trip down memory lane:
Okay, glad we got that out of our systems. On to the good stuff.
Starting Lineup
The Red Sox led the majors in just about every major offensive category this season. They placed first in total runs, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging, and wOBA. Boston was led by MVP-caliber seasons from Mookie Betts (.346/.438/.640) and JD Martinez (.330/.402/.629), though the Sox received significant contributions from others as well. Andrew Benintendi improved dramatically on his rookie campaign. Jackie Bradley Jr. slashed .282/.349/.502 over his final 284 plate appearances after a dismal start. Xander Bogaerts finally shook off his second half demons to post a career year.
And yet, there are some holes, and question marks (specifically at second base, third base, and catcher). Meanwhile, the Yankees offense is just as potent, if not more so. The Bronx Bombers tied the Dodgers for the best wRC+ in baseball (the Red Sox were a close 3rd). They also broke the Major League record for home runs in a season, with 269. That last one is a big point in the Yankees favor, as teams who hit more HR tend to have more success in October.
The slugging starts with Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge, who both homered in Wednesday’s Wild Card game. Luke Voit has been a revelation at first base, where his 188 OPS+ over 148 PA has lengthened an already long lineup and provided a boon desperately needed after poor seasons from Greg Bird and Gary Sanchez. That’s not to mention the production from rookies Miguel Andujar and Gleybar Torres. Plus, Brian Cashman was able to throw former NL MVP Andrew McCutchen into the mix in August.
The Sox have a great offense, but it feels like New York’s is a bit more formidable for this time of year.
Slight Edge: Yankees
Starting Pitching
Here’s how the first three starting pitching matchups seem to be shaking out:
Game 1 – J.A. Happ vs. Chris Sale
Game 2 – Mashiro Tanaka vs. David Price
Game 3 – Rick Porcello vs. Luis Severino
That certainly feels like it favors the Red Sox. Three AL Cy Young Award winners should be enough to tip this category in Boston’s favor. That is, until you include each pitcher’s career postseason ERA…
Game 1 – J.A. Happ (3.72) vs. Chris Sale (8.38)
Game 2 – Masahiro Tanaka (1.44) vs. David Price (5.03)
Game 3 – Rick Porcello (5.47) vs. Luis Severino (4.50)
Look, I get it. Postseason baseball is a small sample size, and past performance isn’t always indicative of future performance, especially in that scenario. But it’s hard to feel too confident, given Price’s non-Rays playoff history, Porcello’s inability to keep the ball in the yard, and Sale’s dip in velocity since returning from multiple summer DL stints. The Yankees starters might not have the same upside, but they certainly feel less volatile. The Happ acquisition continues to loom large. He’s undefeated since joining the Yankees, and has a career 2.98 ERA against the Red Sox. If he can beat Sale in Game 1, it’ll be a bad omen for the Sox’s chances through the weekend. I’m choosing to trust that the Red Sox starters are ready to turn a corner this postseason, but I don’t feel great about it.
Slight Edge: Red Sox
Bullpen
I’ll save you the suspense. This is a huge win (obviously) for the Yankees, and will likely be the deciding factor should the Yankees come out on top. The Red Sox bullpen, while much maligned over the past month, has actually been perfectly above average this season. Craig Kimbrel still looms at the end of games as a premier closer, and rebounded from a mid-summer swoon with a 13 appearance stretch where he allowed only 3 hits and 1 earned run between 8/12 and 9/21. Still, a 4 run implosion in his second to last appearance of the year against the lowly Orioles bumped his ERA to 2.74, the second worst mark of his career.
The rest of the Sox bullpen is fine. Solid, unspectacular, and far from reliable (unless you’re really into the Matt Barnes Experience).
The Yankees ‘pen, conversely, reads like a damn All-Star team. There’s Chapman and Britton. There’s Betances and Robertson. Chad Green may not have as big of a name as his teammates, but he might be the most consistent of the bunch. New York can trot any and all of these guys out there in a high leverage situation, and be reasonably comfortable that the outcome will be in their favor. They led the league in reliever fWAR, and while the Red Sox have had their share of come-from-behind wins this year, they’ll be hard pressed to overcome any substantial deficits in this series.
Major Edge: Yankees
Bench X Factor
Steve Pearce has been a terrific mid-season addition for the Red Sox, providing a boost at a premium offensive position as Mitch Moreland struggled down the stretch. But Brock Holt is the guy here. He can play nearly every position on the diamond, and had perhaps the best all-around season of his career. Holt slashed .277/.362/.411 with a 109 OPS+ this year, and had plenty of clutch moments off the bench:
Holt had 5 hits in 15 pinch-hitting plate appearances, 4 of which went for extra bases. Alex Cora will almost definitely call his number in a tight spot again this series, and Holt will need to deliver.
For the Yankees, Austin Romine *should* be the starting catcher. But, because the baseball gods would never want to deprive us of the joy of watching Gary Sanchez trot after yet another passed ball, he’s stuck in a platoon. If Aaron Boone is smart, he’ll put his best lineup on the field. Fingers crossed nobody gives him a heads up.
Edge: Red Sox
Manager
Cora has been a breath of fresh air for the Red Sox off the field and in the clubhouse this season. After two years of underachieving relative to their talent, the Sox took off under their first year manager’s watch. Cora hasn’t been perfect with his in game decisions, and it does seem like he lingers with guys a bit longer than I would like. However, he’s been excellent as rookie managers go on the whole.
I’ll just say I don’t get the same vibe from Boone, and leave it at that. Plus, I kind of miss Joe Girardi and his binder.
Edge: Red Sox
The Pick
I really want to pick the Yankees. While I think the Red Sox are a better team overall, and better suited for a full 162 game slate, New York feels built for the postseason, especially a short series. The bullpen discrepancy is a major check in the Yankees favor. In a series that figures to be as tight as this one, such an advantage is a major red flag for Boston.
But screw that. What’s the point of writing for a Red Sox blog if you don’t think the best regular season team in franchise history can make it out of the first round?
Red Sox manager Alex Cora made an unsurprising announcement earlier this week when he revealed that reliever Tyler Thornburg would be shut down for the remainder of 2018.
There were two glaring reasons for this call by Cora. First, Thornburg’s recovery from thoracic outlet syndrome is ongoing. That injury caused him to miss all of 2017 and much of 2018. While the 29 year-old righty made progress this season, his manager noted he was beginning to fatigue down the stretch.
However, if Thornburg had performed at a high level in his return to the Boston bullpen mix, would Cora be singing the same tune?
The second obvious reason for giving Thornburg the rest of the autumn off renders that question moot. Thornburg simply hasn’t been effective this season. He posted a 5.63 ERA over 24 innings in 25 appearances, with unflattering peripherals. His last outing was on Sept. 14th, in which he allowed three runs in 2/3rds of an inning (and two HR).
Thornburg’s velocity never really bounced back to 2016 levels, either. Per Brooks Baseball, Thornburg’s average fastball velocity was two mph slower than his last year in Milwaukee.
Mix all of that together, and the smart move was clearly to shut down Thornburg for the year. You won’t get any qualms from me there. However, it does sting to have to mark up yet another effectively lost season for one of Dave Dombrowski’s premier bullpen acquisitions, especially with so many questions swirling about this group of relievers.
The Red Sox acquired Thornburg via trade from the Brewers in December 2016. At the time, the move made total sense. Outgoing Travis Shaw had proven to be a solid, yet unspectacular corner infield option. And, after striking out on Carson Smith Boston felt that another quality reliever was the missing piece to October success.
To his credit, Thornburg was coming off of an excellent 2016. He posted a 2.67 ERA with 12.1 K/9 and 13 saves as the Brewers set-up man in front of closer Jeremy Jeffress. The hope was to combine Thornburg with Smith, to provide a formidable 7th-8th inning duo come playoff time.
Unfortunately for the Sox, things went off of the rails almost immediately. Thornburg injured his shoulder that spring, which led to a war of words between him and the front office. Thornburg claimed that a new fitness program implemented by the Red Sox training staff caused the injury, which ruffled more than a few feathers around the organization. That shoulder fatigue/soreness only worsened as the year went along. The right-hander did not throw a pitch for the Sox in 2017.
Not helping matters in all of this: Shaw has turned into a strong infield power bat for the Brew Crew. In 293 games across two seasons, Shaw has slashed .258/.348/.497 with 62 HR and a 120 OPS+. He’s amassed 8.1 bWAR over that span, compared to Thornburg’s -0.1 bWAR. Any way you slice it, the trade has been a huge win for Milwaukee, and a difficult pill to swallow for the Red Sox.
Thornburg underwent surgery in June, after his shoulder pain continued into 2018. He was finally able to make his Red Sox debut on July 6th. While this season has been a step in the right direction, it hasn’t been enough to earn him a spot on the playoff roster.
The plan is that a full, proper offseason will go a long way toward’s Thornburg’s continued recovery, and ensure he’ll be a contributing member of next season’s roster. Although, as the Red Sox have learned: people plan, and the Baseball Gods laugh.
Move over Tris Speaker and Smokey Joe Wood, there’s a new Sox sheriff in town.
Boston won its 106th game Monday night, defeating the hapless Orioles 6-2 at Fenway Park. With the win, the 2018 Sox have now won more regular season games than any other team in the franchise’s history. That’s a pretty incredible feat, considering the Red Sox have been around for 118 seasons.
As has been the case for nearly all of 2018, Boston’s victory was spearheaded by the AL MVP favorite. Betts was electrifying once again, going 2-5 with a 2-run homer and a stolen base.
The dinger was an absolute rocket, and capped off a four-run 2nd inning for the Sox. Orioles starter Dylan Bundy hung a 1-0 breaking ball over the dead-center of the plate, and Betts went windshield-hunting on the Mass Pike:
Getting taken deep is nothing new for Bundy; he’s allowed an MLB-worst 39 big flies this season. As for Betts, he’s certifiably on fire again. He has 10 hits in his last 20 ABs, with 3 HR and 8 doubles. He’s also only one steal away from a 30-30 season. Betts has all but locked up the MVP award with an absolutely stellar year. He leads the majors in batting average and bWAR, and has been the most consistently excellent all-around player in baseball. Betts’ 2018 season is also the best individual Red Sox season (per bWAR) since Pedro Martinez in 2000, and best by a position player since Carl Yastrzemski in 1967. In short, it’s been a historic year, on a historic team.
Eovaldi Makes His Case
The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported on Saturday that Nathan Eovaldi had a chance to supplant Eduardo Rodriguez in the playoff rotation. Eovaldi certainly made his case for the 4th spot on Monday night. He allowed only 1 run (while striking out 10 Orioles) over 5 innings of work.
Rodriguez made his first appearance out of the bullpen, as well. He followed up Eovaldi’s start with two shutout innings of his own.
Manager Alex Cora has said who starts Game 4 of the ALDS will be matchup dependent. At this point it makes sense that Eovaldi has closed the gap on Rodriguez. E-Rod has been inconsistent in four starts this month after missing half of July and all of August on the disabled list. He’s posted a 5.79 ERA in his September starts, mixing a pair of solid outings against sub-.500 teams with a pair of poor efforts vs. playoff-bound Houston and New York.
Of course, who is actually slated to start that game could be a moot point. Should the Red Sox sweep (or get swept), or fall into a 2-1 series deficit, we might not see a 4th starter in the ALDS, anyway. Still, it’s a key theme to keep an eye on over the final week of the season.
The Red Sox have made history, and checked all of the boxes that they’ve needed to check this season. They can effectively plan for the postseason, having secured their place at the top of Major League Baseball and as the best regular season Red Sox team in franchise history.
Time will tell whether or not this has any bearing in October, when the records are reset to 0-0 and chaos reigns supreme.
