Tonight is David Price‘s most important start in a Red Sox uniform to date. Yes, I’m aware he’s started Game 2 of the 2016 ALDS, which should hold that distinction in a vacuum. Tonight feels even more weighty, however. It’s a feeling that has been locked in the moment Ian Kinsler grounded into a game-ending double play Tuesday night.
The Red Sox have another chance to clinch their 4th AL East division title in six seasons (their third in a row), and they have the opportunity to do so for the second time in three years in the House That Jeter Built. Nothing would be sweeter than for Price, who is maligned nearly as much by Yankee fans as he is by his hometown supporters, to land the finishing blow.
Bronx Blues
Price has emerged as the most reliable Red Sox pitcher this year. He’s caught fire in the second half of 2018 after his first two seasons in Boston were both up-and-down (2016) and marred by injury (2017). However, any Price positivity will always be overshadowed by his performance when it counts in October and his reputation of being unable to come through in big games…especially against New York.
He did little to dispel those notions earlier this season. The Yankees knocked him out of the game in the first inning of his third start of 2018, scoring 4 runs on 3 hits before Price left the game with a “tingling sensation” in his left hand. As you can imagine, that didn’t go over so well in Boston.
He took the mound against the Yankees again on July 1st, this time in New York. The Yankees bounced him early yet again. Price allowed 8 runs and 5 HR in 3.1 innings. The 8 runs were a career high and ballooned his career ERA at the new Yankee Stadium to 4.75.
A Shot At Redemption
Since that start, however, Price has been dynamite. He’s toed the rubber 11 times; the Sox are 10-1 in those games. That’s due in large part to their $217 million man. Over that stretch, Price is 6-0 with a 2.22 ERA and an absurd 7.77 K/BB rate. Focusing in further, Price has posted a 1.56 ERA in his last 9 starts, with opponents only hitting .188 against him.
Included in that streak? A 6 inning, 2 earned run performance against the second place Yankees on August 5th in Boston. Price wasn’t necessarily extraordinary in that one. But, he didn’t implode, didn’t get Fortnite Fingers, and gave the Sox a chance to win.
You might expect more out of a guy making $30 million AAV against your biggest rival. However, given Price’s history against the Yankees, it was a step in the right direction.
Tonight, the Murfreesboro, TN native can:
Help the Red Sox win their division, and begin prepping for the playoffs in earnest.
Continue one of the best stretches of his career, with an eye towards carrying it through to October
Conquer the pinstripe-clad demons that have haunted him his entire career in their own backyard
Yeah, I’d say this is about as important as a start can get. That is until the postseason begins.
Use code “BSE” to get $20 off your first purchase when using Seat Geek!
We’re officially in the NBA dead season. For the time being, there are no trades to be made, no dramatic shakeups to rattle the league’s core, and worst of all, no actual games to be played. In times like these, we have only one choice: Argue about really dumb, inconsequential stuff while we sit around waiting for the season to start.
The following is inconsequential, but it is certainly not dumb. I’ve gone ahead and constructed a roster of the best Celtics players with two first names. You’re welcome in advance.
What’s The Criteria? Did the player in question play in a Celtics uniform? Did that player have two first names? Was that player both good, and does he fit into a loosely constructed roster format? If the answer to all of those questions is yes, that player will likely be featured in this post.
Will There Be Videos? You better believe it.
Why Didn’t Vitaly Potepenko Make The Team? To the best of my knowledge “Potepenko” is not a first name. I promise that, and that alone, is the only reason.
This roster is only 8 spots, so that means some tough calls have to be made. Unfortunately, that means Big Al narrowly misses the cut. Jefferson was one of the last players to go straight from high school to the NBA, and his inexperience showed early on. Jefferson started only 8 games during his first two seasons. In 2007, however, he made a leap. Jefferson averaged 16 PPG and 11 RPG on 51.4% shooting, displaying enough promise to make himself the centerpiece of the Kevin Garnett trade that summer.
That’s right, the guy behind Nellie Ball was a key cog on five Celtics championship teams. Statistically, Nelson was unspectacular. Across 11 seasons with Boston, he averaged only 11-5-2 on 48% shooting in 21.8 MPG.
However, he also had one of the great moments of the late Russell-Era Celtics. Down the stretch in Game 7 of the ’69 Finals, Nelson scooped up a loose ball at the foul line. He released a high-arching jumper that bounced straight off the back iron, before dropping directly down through the rim as the shot clock expired. The shot pushed the Celtics’ lead to 105-102 with a minute and a half to play, giving just enough cushion for the C’s to clinch their 11th NBA title in 13 years.
Archibald is a forgotten legend from a forgotten era. “Tiny” played from 1972-77, averaging an impressive 27-3-9 on 47% shooting en route to three All-Star selections. He became the first (and only) player to lead the league in both assists per game and points per game in ’73, when his 34 PPG and 11.4 APG set the pace for the rest of the NBA.
An achilles injury caused him to miss the entire ’78 season. This injury led to his signing with the Celtics. Archibald’s numbers weren’t as gaudy in Boston as they were during his prime, but his efforts as a floor general and steady secondary creator alongside a precocious Larry Bird earned him three more All-Star honors from 1980-82, and an NBA title in 1981.
It’s only fitting that the 6th man of this crew is Hall of Fame center Bill Walton. Okay, I took some liberties here (“Walton” isn’t exactly a common first name unless you’re the vice principal of North Jackson High School), but as the self-appointed arbiter of this list, I’ll allow it. The C’s snatched up Walton after the ’85 season, when foot and ankle injuries had all but derailed his career.
The former UCLA standout had an immediate impact: His unselfish play meshed seamlessly with Bird’s Celtics, already a team known for their passing and ball movement. The result? Walton was named 6th Man of the Year in 1986, as Boston sliced through the rest of the NBA en route to 68 wins and a title.
It’s easy to lose sight of just how good Thomas was during his time in Boston, given the way things ended. The Celtics acquired him at the trade deadline in 2015, and promptly won 20 of their final 30 games to sneak into the playoffs as the 8 seed. IT was the spark, and after leading the Celtics back to the postseason in 2016, he lost his damn mind in 2017.
Thomas was a killer that season. He averaged 29-3-6 on 46/38/91 shooting, with the bulk of that production coming when it mattered most. He scored 20+ points in 43 straight games (a Celtics record), and averaged 9.8 points in the 4th quarter (2nd best in the NBA). The above video was arguably his greatest moment: dropping 53 points against the Wizards in the ECSF on his sister’s birthday, just days after her death. It’s hard to believe that he would be traded less than 4 months later.
I specifically remember being confused when the Celtics traded for Allen during the 2007 NBA Draft. At the time, pairing a 31 year old shooting guard with a 30 year old Paul Pierce and Al Jefferson seemed like a one-way ticket to 43 wins and NBA purgatory. Of course, little did I know a Kevin Garnett-sized shoe was about to drop, and the next great era of Celtics’ basketball was about about to begin.
Garnett was the heart and soul of those Celtics teams. Pierce was the captain. But Allen was the most consistent, and most deadly. Jesus Shuttlesworth averaged 17-3-3 on 47/40/91 shooting from 2008-11, with more clutch shots and game winners than I can count. He also has the two most iconic shots from the 2008 Finals, both from Game 4’s dramatic road comeback. There was the above triple-clutch reverse layup, and then the game-clinching blow-by of Sasha Vujacic.
Like Thomas, things ended on a sour note with the Boston brass. However, Allen was vital to the Celtic’s last championship run, and to restoring the franchise to their former glory.
Lewis’ story ended in tragedy, a life lost far too soon. While he was healthy and able to compete on an NBA court, however, he was one of the game’s best two way players, an All-Star just hitting his prime. Lewis only played in 49 games (and 405 minutes) in his rookie season. Then, from 1989-93, he blossomed. Lewis averaged 19-5-2 over that 5 season stretch, and was an All-Star in 1992.
He was notorious for giving Michael Jordan fits (at least as much as any other player was able to), even blocking him 4 times in one game. The Celtics, in the wake of Len Bias’ death in 1986 and with Bird, Kevin McHale, and Robert Parish aging quickly, needed a new, young star to carry the franchise’s success into a new decade. Lewis seemed primed to be a key part of that next Celtics generation. Unfortunately, that was not meant to be.
Before the decisive Game 7 of the 1984 NBA Finals, Maxwell reportedly told his Celtics teammates “Hop on my back boys, I’ll carry you home.” Cornbread put his money where his mouth was, scoring 24 points, along with 8 boards and 8 assists, to lead the Celtics to their 15th title. Maxwell earned his second ring with the franchise and cemented himself as a Celtics legend, after winning the Finals MVP in 1981.
Of course, it helps that in addition to his stellar work as a starter on those early 80s Celtics teams, Maxwell had (and continues to have) such a colorful personality. Listen to any Celtics radio broadcast and you’re sure to get a good quote or five. Here’s one from last December, at the expense of 2018 MVP James Harden. And, in case you were worried this was a new development, check out his speech from Larry Legend’s retirement ceremony in 1993. Simply put, Max is the best.
Look, if you made it this far I probably don’t need to run down Bill Freakin’ Russell’s list of accomplishments. 11 titles in 13 years. Never lost a Game 7. A 5-time MVP, 12-time All-Star, and 12-time All NBA selectee. And that’s just scratching the very surface. He was beloved by coaches and teammates, and his contributions go beyond the court. He was a Civil Rights activist, and is one of the game’s greatest ambassadors. How could I have chosen any other Celtics’ center with two first names, two last names, or no names at all for this honor?
I also just wanted an excuse to show off this video:
If that wasn’t enough, there’s this classic commercial that, thanks to the mighty and glorious internet, is forever immortalized:
The Red Sox take on the Houston Astros this weekend in a three game set that many believe is an ALCS preview. There will be plenty to take in at Fenway Park over the next few days. Here’s what I’ll be keeping my eye on:
Aces, Charles, You’re Aces
Aces are often the case when top flight teams face off, and there will be some big time pitching matchups worth tuning in for.
Friday night’s tilt features two of the AL’s best: Gerrit Cole and David Price. Cole was a CY Young favorite earlier this season. In his first 10 starts, he went 5-1 with a 1.86 ERA and a .169 batting average against. However, he’s cooled recently. Since the calendar flipped to August, he’s 3-2 with a 4.11 ERA. Conversely, Price is just hitting his stride. The 2012 AL CY Young award winner has been on fire since the All-Star break. He’s shut down opposing bats to the tune of a 1.62 second-half ERA, with an exquisite 6.14 K/BB ratio over his last 7 starts.
Saturday’s matchup is solid as well, with Houston’s Charlie Morton (13-3, 3.13 ERA) facing off against Eduardo Rodriguez (12-3, 3.34 ERA). Both guys are in the midst of career years, and overcoming recent DL stints. This will be Morton’s first start since August 28th, and Rodriguez’s second start since returning from the DL earlier this month. Of course, we all remember how that first start went:
Buenas noticias para @RedSox Eduardo Rodríguez lució enorme en su primera apertura, luego de salir de la lista de lesionados 12 ponches🔥 pic.twitter.com/ZPwlh1p9dG
As if that wasn’t enough, Sunday features the two of the last three AL CY Young winners. Rick Porcello is looking to rebound from an especially tough stretch; he’s allowed a HR in 10 of his last 13 starts, and has a 5.21 ERA since June 27th. Dallas Keuchel has been Houston’s 4th best starter, though he’d be a #2 or #3 guy on most clubs. He’s been effective all season long, and will be coming off of a 6 inning, 0 earned-run outing against the Twins on Monday.
Even without Chris Sale and Justin Verlander toeing the rubber, both teams have plenty of starting pitching to keep things interesting all weekend.
Mitchy No Bags
On May 25th, the Red Sox DFA’ed Hanley Ramirez. There were plenty of extenuating factors that went into that roster decision, including first-baseman Mitch Moreland‘s red hot start. It made sense at the time. Moreland was hitting .318/.393/.636 with 8 HR in 122 PA, along with his typically stellar defense. He’s since gone into a tailspin. In 75 games since May 26th, Moreland is only slashing .220/.294/.374 with 7 HR. He’s also 1 for his last 18 at bats.
Moreland is a career .252/.318/.440 hitter, and the totality of his 2018 has reflected that larger sample size. However, considering how hard he faltered in the second half of 2017, Sox fans have reason to worry that they won’t get enough out of a key cog come playoff time. If Moreland is going to get hot again, this weekend would be a good time to start.
Old Dogs, Old Tricks
Second base has been a struggle for the Sox this season. They rank 26th in the majors with a 83 wRC+ at that position. Dustin Pedroia‘s consistent offensive output and strong defense (*cough* Nunez *cough*) has been missed.
The good news? A couple of former All-Stars have made their presence felt at that spot recently. Ian Kinsler and Brandon Phillips may be long in the tooth, but they’re contributing in a big way down the stretch.
Kinsler got off to a slow start this season. But, he began to find a rhythm right before the Red Sox acquired him on July 30th. In 21 games for Boston, he’s hit .310/.355./408 with a 106 OPS+. His slick defense has been a major upgrade, too. Kinsler was 4-11 with 5 RBI in the Red Sox sweep of the Braves earlier this week, including a couple of rare (for him) opposite-field gappers.
Brandon Phillips signed a minor league contract in June, and made his Red Sox debut on Wednesday. His impact was, in a word, immediate:
There’s still about a month until the postseason roster shakes out. But these two former All-Stars have tons to offer the Sox in the here and now. We’ll see if they continue to make the most of their opportunities against the reigning world champs.
This weekend is must watch TV for Red Sox fans. The results may not be predicative of what will happen in October, but they will go a long way towards determining who has the upper hand should we see this matchup again.
Baseball’s waiver trade deadline passed yesterday, without so much as a peep from the top team in the majors. Dave Dombrowski and the Red Sox chose to roll with the guys in the clubhouse, despite two other AL rivals (New York and Cleveland) making moves to bring in former MVPs and despite calls across their fan base to improve the bullpen.
Those desperate cries have rang out all season long. As it turns out, fans aren’t feeling too comfortable at the thought of Matt Barnes, Joe Kelly, or Heath Hembree entering the 8th inning of a Game 7. Dombrowski’s reputation of building star-studded teams without reliable relievers doesn’t help matters either.
But just how shaky is Boston’s ‘pen? Is having a group of dominant relievers really so important in October? Let’s do a bit of digging to find out.
Red Sox Bullpen: Actually Good?
Photo Credit: AP Photo / Charles Krupa
For starters, the idea that the Red Sox bullpen has struggled this season is more perception than reality. There may not be a ton of big names and former closers like there are with the Yankees and Indians. That being said- the Sox’s relievers have generally been up to the task.
Boston currently ranks 6th in the majors in reliever ERA this season (4th in the AL). The five teams ahead of them also happen to be teams currently slated for a playoff spot. The aforementioned Indians, despite trading for the Padres’ Brad Hand earlier this summer and having Cody Allen and Andrew Miller in the mix, rank 26th in the league in bullpen ERA.
The Sox also rate favorably in FIP (5th in the majors, 3rd amongst playoff teams). Their bullpen’s 4.5 fWAR ranks 7th in baseball, even though their relievers have thrown only 461 innings this season (19th most). In other words, Boston’s ‘pen has provided enough value to rank in the top 25% of teams, despite appearing in fewer innings than every team ahead of them for the exception of Houston.
Of course, that doesn’t mean they’ve been perfect. Far from it in fact. Two troubling peripherals: the Red Sox rank 18th in reliever BB/9 (3.65) and 4th in strand rate (78.4%). Giving up free passes in high-leverage situations is playing with fire, especially in October. A high strand rate means that Boston has done well at putting out those fires. But, that luck can turn in a hurry.
Bullpen Matters
CINCINNATI, OH – AUGUST 12: Joe Kelly #56 of the Boston Red Sox pitches in the third inning of the game against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on August 12, 2014 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)
All of this is to say that the Red Sox bullpen has been overall perfectly acceptable, if not dominant. The good news? Having a great regular season bullpen isn’t necessarily a predictor for postseason success, especially if you excel in other areas like Boston does.
The defending World Series champion Astros ranked 17th in baseball with a 4.27 bullpen ERA last year, yet still won 101 games. That was thanks in large part to their league-leading offense and strong starting pitching. The team they beat for the title last year, the Dodgers, ranked 4th in bullpen ERA. Both finished behind the Red Sox, whose 3.15 reliever ERA was good for 2nd best in baseball.
Here’s where the other previous six pennant winners ranked in bullpen ERA:
2016: Cubs 8th, Indians 4th
2015: Royals 2nd, Mets 11th
2014: Giants 5th, Royals 10th
Of the last eight World Series participants, four finished in the top five. Only last year’s Astros finished outside of the top half of the league. The Royals, who started this craze with their three-headed monster of Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera, and Greg Holland, finished 2nd in 2015. Their bullpen effectively functioned as the team’s greatest asset, compensating for a weak rotation and unconventional lineup. It was essentially the inverse of what the ’17 Astros lineup did for their relievers.
It’s perfectly fair to critique Dombrowski for not finding a better option at either trade deadline. It certainly would have been nice to supplement Craig Kimbrel at the end of games. Ultimately, it might not matter if the Red Sox bullpen is merely above average instead of dominant. Having a killer set of relievers helps come playoff time. However, it’s not necessarily more important than timely hitting, strong starting pitching, and major contributions from stars.
Thus far, it appears Red Sox management is betting on that being the case.
Man, that four-game set had an October feel, didn’t it? The Sox were able to roar back after dropping the first two games, including yesterday’s near-flawless 7-0 victory. It was the first meeting of the season between the two teams, and it wouldn’t surprise me if there’s a rematch in the postseason.
The Sox dropped the first game on Monday, after Rick Porcello allowed 3 HR (and 5 ER) over 7 innings. It’s been a weird season for the righthander out of Morristown, NJ. On one hand, it feels like he’s been far more consistent than in 2017 or 2015. On the other, his 4.14 ERA is more in line with those seasons than his 2016 Cy Young award-winning campaign. His August has made even less sense. He’s 2-2 over 4 starts this month, with a 4.67 ERA. But, opponents are only hitting .156 against him over that stretch. Go figure, right?
There’s one smoking gun here: Porcello can’t seem to keep the ball in the yard. Last season, he gave up a league-leading 38 round-trippers. This year, those struggles have resurfaced. Porcello has already given up 22 big flies in 2018, tying him for 12th in the majors. However, 8 of those have come over his last 5 outings, at a rate of 2.2 per 9 innings. For reference, Dylan Bundy‘s MLB-worst HR/9 is 2.19.
The Sox lost game two thanks to a stellar outing from Indians rookie Shane Bieber. Bieber shut down the best offense in baseball for 6 innings, before the Sox tagged him for 3 runs in the bottom of the 7th. It tied the longest losing streak of the season for Boston (3 games), and prompted plenty of “the Red Sox can’t beat a real team” social media activity from Indians fans (who conveniently ignore the trainwreck that is the non-Cleveland part of the AL Central standings) and Yankees fans (whose team is currently 11-10 in August).
Boston bounced back to even the series and escape with a split thanks to two total team efforts on Wednesday and Thursday. However, a pair of players deserve special mention. Xander Bogaerts and David Price.
Bogaerts went 6-19 across the four game series, collecting at least one hit in each contest. He also continued to rake with runners in scoring position, driving in 8 men. On Wednesday night, Bogey erased a 2-1 4th inning deficit by launching a slider onto the Mass Pike:
Two weeks ago I wrote about how the biggest thing holding Bogaerts back from true superstardom is his tendency to trail off in the second half of the season. Since then, the Red Sox shortstop is batting .348/.411/.717, with 3 HR and 14 RBI. Seems like this is the year where he finally asserts himself down the stretch.
Price was masterful on Thursday afternoon, while the Sox plated 6 runs in the 5th en route to an easy win. The 32-year-old lefty posted 8 scoreless innings with 7 Ks, allowing only 3 hits and no walks. He capped it all off by blowing a fastball by Indians catcher Roberto Perez, a cherry on top of a shutout sundae:
For all of the negative press Price has managed to get during his Red Sox career (some warranted, some less so), he’s been tough to criticize recently. He’s won 5 of his last 7 starts, a stretch where his ERA has decreased with each outing. Over those 7 starts, he’s 5-0 with a 1.50 ERA and 48 strikeouts in 48 innings. Opposing batters are only mustering a .200 batting average against him, and he’s throwing nearly 70% of his pitches for strikes. Price’s season ERA has dropped from 4.44 on July 7th to its current mark of 3.50…pretty good.
With Chris Sale on the shelf for the time being, the Sox have needed their $30+ million man to step up. He’s done that and more over the last month and a half.
The Red Sox won’t see Cleveland again until Sept. 21, another matchup that will have a decidedly October vibe, as well as October implications. If that series is anything like this one, it’ll be appointment viewing for both sides.
The Boston Globe reported Wednesday that the Red Sox are planning to activate second baseman Ian Kinsler for tonight’s game against the Rays. It’s a move that, on the surface, doesn’t come as particularly surprising or thought-provoking. After all, Kinsler’s injury was deemed minor when he was placed on the 10-Day DL with a hamstring injury on August 4th.
However, it’s not particularly hard to see why Kinsler is on this Red Sox roster in the first place, or why his return to the lineup is newsworthy. In case you’ve forgotten, Boston has another former All-Star second baseman on this roster, also idling on the disabled list.
Dustin Pedroia has only played three games this season. He’s been sidelined by the same knee injury that limited him to only 105 games last year. He also won’t play again in 2018. But as teammates Mookie Betts and JD Martinez duke it out down the stretch for the AL MVP award, it’s worth remembering that this is the 10 year anniversary of Pedroia’s own MVP season. And what a season that was.
The Numbers
Pedroia followed up his 2007 AL Rookie of the Year campaign by improving in nearly every countable metric. He slashed .326/.376/.493, with an OPS+ of 123. He only hit 17 HRs (second fewest by any non-pitcher MVP this millennium), but he also led the league in runs (118), hits (213), and doubles (54). Pedroia’s 6.3 fWAR was good for second in the AL, only trailing future Red Sox legend Grady Sizemore‘s 7.4 mark. Pedey was especially lethal at Fenway Park (.344/.393/.519/), and somehow managed to hit .298 in two-strike counts. As if that wasn’t enough, he also stole 20 bases in 21 attempts (a 95% success rate).
Captain Clutch
Pedroia’s MVP case was buoyed by his performance in the clutch. In “Late & Close” situations (7th inning or later, batting team leading by one run, tied, or has the potential tying run on base, at bat, or on deck), he hit .368/.419/.526. In “High Leverage” situations, he had an OPS of 1.007 across 112 plate appearances.
The Woodland, CA native also shone brightest against the best competition. Granted, his .291/.348/.445 slash line against sub-.500 teams was far from mediocre. But against teams .500 or better, Pedroia took it to another level. His .348 BA led all Red Sox regulars. He also had 47 of his 73 extra base hits against winning clubs.
Throw in a Gold Glove award and a Silver Slugger, and it’s no surprise why Pedroia won MVP. He even overcame having fewer HR and RBI than Minnesota’s Justin Morneau, or a lower OPS than teammate Kevin Youkilis. The guy earned it.
The Highlights
Of course, what would an MVP season be without a highlight reel? Pedey certainly made plenty of big time plays in 2008. Thanks to the power of the internet, we have the ability to re-live many of them…
…or at least we should. Unfortunately, 10 years is a decade in internet time too. It turns out it’s not so easy to find random clips of regular season baseball from 2008. MLB.com’s video vault has plethora of inactive links that pop up when you search “Pedroia 2008”, which is none too helpful. A random YouTube user took the time to upload a semi-suspicious amount of videos from that season in glorious 144p quality, which is only slightly less useless.
Maybe the best highlight to come out of 2008? Pedroia’s MLB the Show 09 commercial. It is, in a word, iconic:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dy9KxVwHcWo
It’s unclear when (or if) we’ll ever see Pedroia man second base in a Red Sox uniform again. But there’s no denying that he’s a Red Sox great, and his masterful 2008 campaign is one major reason why. With the Sox poised to crown another MVP this fall, let’s not forget to show The Laser Show a little love.
Xander Bogaerts occupies a peculiar space in Red Sox fans’ consciousness. On one hand, he’s an All-Star, a two-time Silver Slugger award winner, and World Series champion. On the other hand, he’s never quite lived up to the lofty expectations that were placed on his shoulders as a top prospect and precocious rookie in 2013. He has shown he can hit, but hasn’t put together the mix of power, batting average, and plate discipline he teased early on…at least not all in one season. Bogaerts’ defense has improved steadily (a testament to how hard he’s worked). However, he’s at best a league average-to-above-average defender at a premium position.
As a result, Bogaerts faded into the background while teammates like Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi (and contemporaries Francisco Lindor and Carlos Correa) have surged past him.
Bogaerts has been doomed to a series of “good but not great” and ultimately unsatisfying seasons. What’s one obvious reason? He has a propensity for a good old-fashioned second half swoon. Based on his performance at the plate since July 15th, Bogaerts looks like he’s headed down that path again.
Bogaerts’ Past Struggles
Bogaerts has tailed off before. The X Man has slashed .268/.325/.393 in 1263 career plate appearances in the second half of the season. That’s a far cry from his career first half numbers. Bogaerts has hit .291/.351/.443 in 1796 plate appearances prior to the break.
It doesn’t help matters that when Bogaerts struggles, his ABs look extra rough due to his high leg kick and wrist-heavy swing. When the Aruba native isn’t feeling it, it’s hard to ignore.
Traditionally, this has been the month where his numbers take a substantial nose dive. Bogaerts has only mustered a .237 batting average and a .629 OPS in August over the course of his career. Explanations can be made for a few of these swoons on a season by season basis. For example, you could argue that he hit the rookie wall in 2014. It was clear last season that a hand injury suffered in early-July hampered the Red Sox shortstop for the rest of the year.
Excuses or not, the trend is clear. And it doesn’t seem to be heading in the right direction anytime soon.
More of The Same
The second half woes have made their way into 2018. Bogaerts started the season hot. He had 21 hits in his first 51 ABs this season, 11 of which were extra base knocks. Then, from May 1st up until the All-Star break, he slashed a respectable (if not eye-popping) .259/.340/.494. His 13 HR in 67 games over that span is a 33 HR pace per 162 games.
Since the break, X has struggled to get started. Despite collecting hits in each of his last three games, he’s hitting just .216/.305/.333 over the last 15 contests. He also hasn’t homered since July 15th. Granted, slumps happen, and 59 PA isn’t what we’d call a large sample size. However, this isn’t an isolated incident, meaning we can draw more truth from those plate appearances than in a vaccuum.
Ultimately, this might all be a moot point. Betts and JD Martinez might just keep raking through the fall and continue taking turns carrying an otherwise potent offense.
Should either of Boston’s anchors falter for an extended period, or enter an ill-timed slump during the postseason, the onus will fall on the Sox’s second tier of stars to keep the line moving and pick up the slack.
Will Bogaerts finally be the guy to do it for a stretch run?
It’s a question that Red Sox fans have been waiting to answer (and one of the few questions remaining for this team). Time will tell if Bogaerts is up to the challenge.
This is Blake Swihart‘s moment. Granted, it’s a moment that has been 4+ seasons in the making, but it’s here nonetheless. As soon as starting catcher Christian Vazquez headed to the DL with a broken pinkie on July 8th, Red Sox nation turned their eyes to a former top prospect who had fallen on some difficult times.
If Swihart is able to deliver on his initial promise, he could be a difference maker both in the present and the future. If not, it will likely be an end to one of the more frustrating (and strange) Red Sox careers in recent memory.
A Long, Strange Trip
This crossroads has been a long time coming. Swihart was ranked #1 among all Red Sox farmhands by SoxProspects.com as late as April 9, 2015. He headed up a then-stacked minor league system that included names like Yoan Moncada, Henry Owens, Rafael Devers, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Michael Kopech. Swihart made his first start on May 2, and proceeded to slash .274/.319/.392 in 308 PA with below average defense behind the dish.
In 2016, Swihart appeared in only 16 games after defensive issues led to his relinquishing of the starting catcher position to Vazquez. Then-manager John Farrell gave him some run in left field, where he almost immediately suffered a broken ankle. That injury sidelined Swihart for the remainder of the ’16 campaign, and much of 2017 as well. In 71 games at the minor league level last season, Swihart only managed to muster a .210/.291/.306 slash.
This season, Swihart was tried out in the infield during spring training, due to lingering discomfort from that same ankle injury. While he made the 25 man roster in a utility role, he spent much of the early part of the season riding the pine. Things got bad enough that Swihart’s agent requested a trade. However, other teams weren’t exactly lining up for a failed catcher with a sub-.200 batting average.
Now Swihart is sharing catching duties with Sandy Leon, a roundabout way back to where his major league story began.
Red Sox Catching: Not Great!
Swihart’s return behind the plate comes at a time when the Sox are looking for answers there. Since 2014, Red Sox catchers have slashed only .244/.300/.351. They are 28th in RC+, and 26th in fWAR. This season, Red Sox catchers have posted a 56 wRC+ and a -0.5 fWAR (both 29th in the bigs).
Vazquez and Leon have handled the bulk of the work at that spot for the Sox this year. Neither have an OPS over .650. Leon has also managed to post a 26.7 K%, which is only matched in it’s mediocrity by Vazquez’s .087 ISO.
Granted, catcher isn’t considered a premium offensive position. But for a team with World Series aspirations, those numbers qualify as a black hole.
Swihart Heating Up?
To be fair to Leon and Vazquez, Swihart hasn’t lit the world on fire either. He’s only mustered a .218/.288/.287 line in 111 PA this season. His ISO (.069) is even lower than Vazquez’s, and he’s striking out at almost the same rate as Leon.
However, there have been signs of life. In 23 PA since Vazquez’s injury, Swihart has reached base 10 times. If you extend that window out to June 26, he’s hitting .407/.484/.593. Over that same span, Leon is batting only .218/.283/.382. These are all tiny sample sizes, and drawing lasting conclusions from them can be dangerous. But, there’s evidence that we could be (finally) closing in on a Swihart breakthrough.
Swihart was 1-3 with a walk on Friday night vs. the Twins. His defense was unspectacular, but not detrimental.
At this point, “unspectacular but not detrimental” is all the Red Sox need from their catchers. It’ll be worth seeing whether their former top prospect can provide more than that.
We’ve officially entered the sports abyss. You know, that 48-hour black hole following the MLB All-Star Game where there are no sports to be found. The World Cup is over. There are no baseball games in sight. NFL training camp is still a ways off. Hell, even the NBA’s Summer League has concluded.
In these dire times, all we can do is lock ourselves in our rooms, and look ahead to what the second half of the Major League season might bring.
Red Sox fans are surely hoping for more of the same. Boston won an MLB record 68 games prior to the break, and hold a 4.5 game lead over the Yankees for first place in the AL East. There should be plenty of intrigue over the season’s final two and a half months. Here are a few key themes for Sox fans to keep an eye on for 2018’s stretch run:
Will Dave Dombrowski Make a Move?
The trade deadline is looming. The Red Sox may be on pace for 112 wins, but they have their share of holes. Three starting pitchers (Drew Pomeranz, Steven Wright, and Eduardo Rodriguez) are on the disabled list. The bullpen, beyond Craig Kimbrel, is “good enough to get by” at best and “heart-attack inducing” the rest of the time. 2nd and 3rd base have been well below average offensively, and a train-wreck defensively (at least when Rafael Devers and Eduardo Nunez have been in the lineup). The catcher position has been underwhelming as well, though the Sox aren’t alone there.
In short, there’s reason to believe that Boston may try to make an upgrade over the next couple of weeks. The Red Sox have been rumored to be interested in a high-caliber reliever. The Orioles’ Zach Britton could be on the table, and is one big name to watch. Boston has also shown interest in former Yankee Nathan Eovaldi. An augmentation to the pitching staff seems most likely, though whether it’s a major get like Britton or a stopgap solution like Eovaldi remains to be seen. However, don’t sleep on a boost to the lineup as well (The Royals’ Mike Moustakas or Whit Merrifield, anyone?). When you have a first half like the Red Sox did, a big swing is almost always in the works.
Dr. Chris vs. Mr. Sale
The splits are staggering. By almost every metric, Chris Sale is worse in the second half of the season than he is in the first half. For his career, Sale is 69-26 with a 2.66 ERA before the All-Star break, and 32-36 with a 3.28 ERA after it. Last year was no different; after a dominant first half, he showed signs of mortality down the stretch. Everything came to a head in the postseason, when he allowed 9 runs on 13 hits in 9.2 innings over two appearances versus Houston.
Sale will once again be coming off a stellar first half (10-4, 2.23 ERA, 13.1 K/9). We’ll see if he can keep it rolling for the full 162 plus postseason, assuming the Sox make it that far.
Will Jackie Bradley Jr. Get Hot?
JBJ has been nothing short of frustrating this season at the dish. His .210/.297/.345 slash line doesn’t inspire much confidence. Neither does his less-than-robust 73 OPS+. Fortunately for Bradley, his typically excellent defense has managed to keep him in the lineup more often than not.
There are signs that a patented Bradley Jr. hot streak could be around the corner. His .265 BAPIP is its lowest since 2013, despite a career best 38.8 hard-hit percentage (and a career low 9.7 soft-hit percentage). JBJ also showed signs of life towards the end of the first half. In 18 games since June 24th, Bradley is hitting .323//377/.548 with a couple of HR and 15 RBI to boot.
JBJ truly just needs to be mediocre at the plate in order to justify his prescence in the lineup with the way he mans centerfield. However, he’s also capable of going on extreme hot streaks that can buoy an entire offense for a month. Assuming he times that streak right, it could determine the AL East race.
Can Mookie Betts Stay Hot?
Mike Trout is already an all-time great, and the best player in baseball. But Betts has been the top dog this season from the jump. His monster first half (.359/.448/.691 with 23 HR, 18 SB, and a 200 OPS+) has made him the clear AL MVP favorite so far. It has also almost completely erased an underwhelming 2017 season. Check this out:
It truly does feel as though this season is a correction for 2017, and combining both puts him right in line with 2016’s MVP runner-up campaign. The Sox need him to keep that pace, and stay locked in. While the top 5 of the lineup is as formidable of a group as any (Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts, JD Martinez, Mitch Moreland), the bottom part has been suspect to say the least. Boston can’t afford much of a drop-off from their stars, especially Betts.
There’s plenty more to keep an eye on as the Red Sox make their way through the dog days of summer into the fall, of course. But don’t be surprised if these key points loom large through September and October.
It’s July, which means only one thing: Trade SZN. The Red Sox made their fair share of roster moves in June, including signing former All-Star 2B Brandon Phillips to a minor league contract and trading for Steve Pearce. However, Dave Dombrowski has never been shy about shuffling pieces around the board (and across the league), so it’s unlikely the Sox are done tweaking their roster for the summer.
The next shoe to drop could be a move for starting pitching help. The Red Sox were among several teams in attendance for current Rays’ starter Nathan Eovaldi‘s start on Monday, per MLB.com’s Bill Chastain.
Sox fans will remember Eovaldi best during his stint with the Yankees from 2015-16. During that two-year stretch, Eovaldi was 23-11 with a 4.45 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. He missed all of last season after undergoing his second Tommy John’s surgery in August 2016. Eovaldi could represent a low-risk/low-cost rental for teams in need of pitching depth down the stretch.
The Problem
Boston fits that mold perfectly. Chris Sale has been dominant and Rick Porcello has been both consistent and dependable. David Price has shown a tendency to mix strong stretches with complete meltdowns. He is also only a year removed from his own injury issues. Eduardo Rodriguez seems to have righted the ship with Wednesday’s virtuoso performance in Washington. He’s also notoriously inconsistent, and has gone deeper than the 6th inning only twice in his 17 starts this year. Drew Pomeranz and Steven Wright are currently on the disabled list.
Both Wright and Pomeranz are close to returning. Wright is expected back by the All-Star break, and Pomeranz made his first rehab start this week. However, Wright’s knee issues are becoming chronic, and Pomeranz allowed four HRs in Monday’s rehab start. Neither qualify as reliable back-of-the-rotation options.
The Solution
That’s where Eovaldi fits in. He’s posted a 3.92 ERA across seven starts so far this season, with career highs in K/9 (7.6) and K/BB (5.83) ratio. While he’s benefited from good batted ball luck, he’s also had poor home run luck. Opponents are only batting .211 on balls in play, and he’s stranded 79.6% of his runners. However, Eovaldi’s HR/FB rate (21.4%) is higher than ever. In other words, look for both of those numbers to even out a bit as the sample size grows.
Eovaldi’s stuff has remained consistent in his return as well. He still throws gas (avg. four-seam velocity of 97 mph). He’s also mixed in a cutter more frequently than ever. In 2016, only 7.3% of Eovaldi’s pitches were classified as such. That number has climbed all the way up to 25.3% this season. That could partially explain his luck on balls in play. An improved cut-fastball is limiting how much solid contact opposing batters are able to make.
Granted, none of these numbers are exactly eye-popping. But, they are representative of a solid fifth starter who provides depth at the end of the rotation. Eovaldi would come with his own question marks as well; he missed the start of this season with elbow and rib injuries. However, if the price is right, he could be a nice piece to help get the Sox through the dog days of summer.
