Tag Archives: Barry Bonds

Mookie Betts Is The Best Value In Baseball

Yesterday the New York Post’s Joel Sherman detailed how much money Mookie Betts has turned down in recent years. Mookie then gave an interview to Red Sox reporters this morning detailing how he loves it here, but will be going to free agency instead of signing a long-term deal. Cue the hang wringing across Red Sox Nation.

But the fact Mookie is going year to year for the next two years makes him the greatest value in the majors right now.

Current Contract

Betts and the Red Sox recently agreed on a $20 million contract for 2019. That set a record for a player who was subject to salary arbitration. There was speculation that Nolan Arenado would break that, before he signed an 8 year $260 Million contract instead.

Mookie has one more year of arbitration before hitting his goal of free agency. If he follows up 2018 with something similar in 2019 he’s going to set an all time record in arbitration that will be hard to beat. The Red Sox have Mookie under arbitration control for only this year and next. He will become a free agent after the 2020 season.

Historic Footing

In 2018 Mookie Betts had a 10.9 WAR according to Baseball Reference. That is 21st on the All Time list. Number one is Babe Ruth’s 1923 at 14.1, second is Ruth’s 1921 at 12.9. You get the picture. The only post 2000 seasons in front of Mookie’s are Barry Bonds in 2001 and 2002.

Value

A lot of uneasiness is coming from Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, and Nolan Arenado signing long term deals, while Mookie is refusing to. None of those players have a higher WAR season than Mookie has right now.

Currently teams are agreeing on 8 to 10 year contracts at $30 plus million dollars for the privilege of having those players on their teams. None of those guys, including Trout, has ever had a better season than Mookie. Trout is the only one with an argument. Harper’s best season was his 10 WAR season in 2015.

Again, the Red Sox are paying Mookie Betts $20 Million this year. If he is true to his word, he will not sign a long-term extension before hitting free agency.

Risk

How many long term contracts have ever worked out in the Major Leagues? Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Alex Rodriguez, Robinson Cano – these are cautionary tales. Yes, Harper and Machado, and Trout and Arenado to a lesser extent, are all younger that those other guys when they got those big contracts. But injuries, declining performance, bad team relationships, and PED use are among the many risks that come with long term deals.

The Red Sox have the luxury of the possibility of two more outstanding seasons from Mookie Betts at the shortest possible term. Yes, it would be painful to see him in another uniform. But the Red Sox cannot make him sign a contract.

It’s All Good

This is a reason for celebration Sox Nation, not doom. If the Red Sox win the World Series again in the next two years, then lose Mookie Betts to another team in free agency, that is a win.

And give it time. The Red Sox can never be counted out when it comes to paying out big contracts. The big payroll situations come at the end of 2019. They can meet any rivals head on when Mookie’s free agency hits after 2020.

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Vote Roger Clemens Into The Hall Of Fame

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When we pull out the winter coats and see our heating bills rise, the Baseball Hall of Fame announcement is soon to follow. This year is year 7 of 10 for Roger Clemens. This is a man with 7 Cy Young awards and 354 wins. So why isn’t he in the Hall Of Fame right now?

We all know the answer to that question. His PED use. Or his alleged PED use. That story is so overdone and convoluted I’m not going to dive into it here. Instead, I’m going to go through a Red Sox fan’s journey to acceptance of The Rocket.

The Red Sox Rise & Fall

Roger Clemens started on the Red Sox in 1984, but he burst onto the scene in 1986. He went 24-4 with 2.48 ERA and won the Cy Young and MVP. The list of pitchers that have done that is small. Through 1992, he continued his greatness. He won 17 or more games 7 times and averaged a 2.90 ERA.

But then 1993-1996 happened. Clemens appeared to pack it in. Over those three years, he averaged 10 wins and a 3.78 ERA. That ERA is good for most pitchers, but not for The Rocket. His decline famously led Dan Duquette, the Sox GM at the time, to say it was the twilight of his career.

Betrayal

So Duquette allowed him to sign with the division rival, Toronto Blue Jays, and all of a sudden he was revitalized. He won two straight Cy Young awards, averaging 20 wins a year and a 2.35 ERA. He even had the best strikeouts per 9 innings of his career, a measure of a pitcher’s ‘nastiness’.

And then he went to the Yankees. If he had done nothing else, that would’ve been enough for me and the rest of Red Sox nation to hate him. But of course, he continued to pitch well, including another Cy Young and 2 World Series wins with the hated Pinstripes.

This turned our unrequited love towards him to ash. Clemens had turned the place of our escape from everyday turmoil, the game and the local nine, into another place of hurt and pain.

Perspective

But hate is no way to go through life. In time, Jose Canseco has been proven right: Everyone juiced. Batters, starting pitchers, relievers, part-time players, Hall of Famers, everyone.

Sure there have been many clean players, but so many juicers, they were all shoulder to shoulder in the PED wine pit.

And Clemens was still head an shoulder above most of them. He ended with 7 Cy Youngs, the most in history. He’s the 9th winningest pitcher in MLB history. Yes, there is plenty of taint on those records.

But Jim Bouton, in his seminal Ball Four, speaks of PED use by pitchers, mainly himself and Whitey Ford, in the 1960s. The bottom line is there’s been a lot of ‘looking for an edge’ going on throughout baseball history.

To summarize: Yes, Roger Clemens probably cheated, but so did a lot of others, and on performance alone, he would’ve been a first ballot Hall of Famer. As it is, the writers have made him suffer for 6 years so far, and the rules were even changed because of him and Barry Bonds. It used to be players had 15 years on the ballot to get in, that’s how long it took Jim Rice and Tim Raines. But now it’s a 10-year limit.

I don’t think anyone is going to forget his probable PED use. But I believe we should move towards forgiveness. So what are his chances?

Roger Clemens Hall of Fame Voting

To get into the Hall, 75% of the vote is required. Thanks to the intrepid Ryan Thibodaux, we can track Clemen’s voting percentages. Since Thibodaux’s tracking started, Clemens has gone from 39% in 2013, up to 61% in 2018. In the old system of 15 years of eligibility that is a track that eventually leads to the 75% threshold.

But Clemens only has three years left. The theory is that younger voters are voting for him. Let’s hope they can persuade their cranky obstinate brethren, and get him voted in.

Do the Red Sox Have a Balance Problem?

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There’s no denying that the Red Sox possess one of the most potent offenses in Major League Baseball. That’s what you get when you put together a lineup anchored by MVP favorite Mookie Betts and destroyer-of-right-field-bleacher-creatures J.D. Martinez. As of Saturday morning, the Sox rank:

2nd in the Majors in runs
2nd in HR
3rd in SB
2nd in ISO
2nd in batting average
4th in OBP
2nd in slugging (and 2nd in OPS)
3rd in wRC+

I could go on, but you get the picture. Boston’s ability to score repeatedly is one of the main reasons why they have the most wins in baseball and the second-best run differential. Yet, while the overall performance of the lineup on a night-to-night basis has been a strength, there are a few red flags regarding the sustainability of its production. Most immediately pressing? A void between the “good” and the “bad” so wide and deep that Michael Cera or Aziz Ansari might crawl out of it at any moment.

Highs and Lows

Here’s the Red Sox most-used lineup this season, substituting Mitch Moreland for the recently deposed Hanley Ramirez (wRC+ and plate appearances in parentheses):

Betts (204 in 232 PA)
Andrew Benintendi (149 in 300 PA)
Moreland (137 in 197 PA)
Martinez (177 in 286 PA)
Xander Bogaerts (130 in 237 PA)
Rafael Devers (83 in 281 PA)
Eduardo Nunez (66 in 254 PA)
Jackie Bradley Jr. (57 in 229 PA)
Christian Vazquez (47 in 177 PA)

As for other players with more than 50 PA this year, only Brock Holt (120 in 133 PA) has a wRC+ over 100. The next highest non-regular still with the team? Sandy Leon, whose 58 wRC+ is somehow still 45 points better than poor Blake Swihart‘s 13(!?!?!?!?!?!?) in 70 plate appearances. A full explanation on wRC+ can be found here for the uninitiated, but it is useful because it serves as an all-encompassing stat that takes into account criteria like era, park factors, and total offensive performance. League average for any given season is an even 100. The best season per this metric: 2001 Barry Bonds (an astonishing 244 wRC+, or 144% better than league average). The worst (min 300 PA)? 1909 Bill Bergen (an equally astonishing 5 wRC+, or 95% worse than league average).

Worth Worrying About?

All of this is to say that the Red Sox could do with taking a page out of Thanos’ book. While Betts’ transcendent season has lifted the lineup from the jump, the gap between the haves and have-nots is alarming enough to start an Occupy Jersey Street movement at any moment. It’s great that Benintendi has slashed .340/.421/.673 since May 5th, and that Martinez is so comfortable in this lineup he’s moved on to fixing other guys’ swings. However, when almost than half of the everyday starters are producing at well below league average, it tempers expectations a bit. Can the bottom part of the order really be relied on come October? Is Holt really going to be the biggest PH threat off the bench all season? Will Dustin Pedroia ever come back, and if (when) Martinez makes his annual trip to the DL, who will step up?

The Sox don’t have those answers yet. As they make their way towards the dog days of summer, it might not even matter. But last night’s game in Seattle highlighted just how frustrating a lopsided lineup can be. Boston touched up AL Cy Young Award contender James Paxton for 6 runs (5 earned) in the 3rd inning. It was the only frame in which they scored, and the Mariners were able to stage a late inning rally against Heath Hembree and Matt Barnes as a result. With 6 weeks left until the July 31st trade deadline, you have to think Dave Dombrowski will take a hard look at balancing out this roster. After all, this team isn’t supposed to be satisfied with beating good teams in June. It’s meant to beat great teams in the fall.

David Ortiz: A First Ballot Hall of Famer

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The three-time World Series champion had a historic career. He should be a no doubt first ballot Hall of Fame. Meanwhile, David Ortiz is coming back to the club in 2018.

For David Ortiz, the Dominican Republic and Boston has been home since 2003. In four years, he might be enshrined into a third one: the Hall of Fame. The long time DH for the Boston Red Sox retired after one of the best final seasons in MLB history. Not only has Boston retired his number 34 forever. The city and it’s fans have also pushed his case for the Hall of Fame.

In 151 games played in 2016, the slugger hit .315 with 38 home runs and 127 RBIs at age 40. The 10 time All Star’s season ended after being swept by the Cleveland Indians in the ALDS. He took the field one final for his teary goodbye, to illustrate the connections to his fans.

His career accomplishments go beyond last season. He was a three-time World Series Champion (2004, 2007, 2013) and World Series MVP in 2013. Ortiz hit 541 career home runs with 2,472 hits, and had a career .286 batting average and 1,768 RBIs. His RBI total is the most among any designated hitter in the history of baseball. That is more than Frank Thomas, Edgar Martinez, and Don Baylor.

The Boston Red Sox have agreed to let him help with player development effective this season. Having the father-like role will help boost the confidence in the players. He will be the mentor he always was as a player, without the risk of injury. (I write as a joke…)

Off the Field

His contributions on the field are not the only grounds for his induction. His altruism and kindness have shown that he was a great ambassador for the sport. Whether it be visiting the Boston Children’s Hospital on off days and before games, his endless work with The Jimmy Fund, and working with Make A Wish to help grant wishes for thousands of children and teens.

In the midst of the 2003 season, Ortiz failed a player survey about PEDs, while never actually failing a test. Players like Alex Rodriguez, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Ryan Braun, and many others confessed to using PEDs. Ortiz has never tested positive.

No matter who gets to vote when he’s up for the first time in 2022, he will be one of the most popular names on the ballot. With his legacy being spread around Boston, it would be fitting if the most decorated designated hitter in the history of the sport is recognized in Cooperstown. If the greats are enshrined, certainly you would want to best DH in there.

Photo Cred: www.necn.com

Barry Bonds Needs to Be in the Hall of Fame

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Barry Bonds belongs in the Hall of Fame. Whether you believe he is the legitimate home run king, or you hate how he helped make a mockery of the game, or you think he is a jackass, he remains one of the greatest outfielders to ever play the game. He was one of the best all-around players in the game without steroids and was already a slam dunk for the Hall.

Pre-Steroids

Barry Bonds’ career began in 1986. By 1990 he had broken out and won the MVP Award. He then proceeded to win two more MVPs and finish 2^nd in the other vote over the next three seasons. Bonds presumably played clean through the 1998 season. At that point he already had three MVPs, eight Gold Gloves and seven Silver Sluggers. Bonds had also slugged 411 home runs and stolen 445 bases, making him the first player ever to hit that many homers and steal that many bases. Oh, he was also 34 years old and at the top of his game. He had plenty of time to add to those stats. He had achieved all-time great status, a shoo-in for the Hall of Fame.

Not even going back to his days in Pittsburgh, the picture on the right is Barry Bonds circa 1996. The one on the left is in 2007.

Steroids

Bonds’ ego probably led to his steroid use. With McGwire and Sosa chasing home run records and getting all the attention, Bonds likely looked at them with disgust thinking “I’m better than those guys.” Bonds was also coming back from injury that season, missing the season’s first couple months. He could have taken some substances to come back from injury faster. That season, turning 35 in July, Bonds posted his best home runs per-at-bat ratio of any season during his career. During each of the next six seasons he posted an even lower HR/AB ratio. Steroids made guys like McGwire and Sosa and others home run machines. Barry Bonds had reached all-time great status; steroids made him a video game character. From 2000-2004, Bonds batted .339 and averaged 52 home runs per season. His 174 walks per season aided in giving him an outrageous slash line of .535/.781/1.316. That’s just absurd. In 2004, at the age of 40, he racked up a .609 on base percentage. He really did make a mockery of the game and the record books, but he illustrated the problem with steroids and what it can help guys accomplish.

Barry Bonds of the San Francisco Giants hits his 714th career home run, tying Babe Ruth for second place on the all time home run list. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

Conclusion

Would Bonds be the all-time home run king if he had played clean? No. Would he have a .444/.607/1.051 slash line? Again, no. But during the first nine years of the 90s he had a .438/.600/1.038 slash line while averaging 36 home runs and 36 stolen bases per season. And those seasons I bet he played clean. He would probably still own 500-500 club solo, while winning plenty of awards along the way. I don’t think he gets in this year with such a crowded ballot. However, the Hall of Fame exists for the greatest players to ever play, and you cannot have that without Bonds.

2018 Baseball HOF Ballot: The Hitters

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The Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) released their Hall of Fame ballot yesterday. Over the next few weeks, Boston Sports Extra will make our case for who should and who shouldn’t, as well as who will and who won’t get elected. This is a follow up to the article covering the pitchers.

A Messy Situation

The Hall of Fame process has become a messy situation in recent years. Thanks to the steroid era, the ballots have been overloaded with quality players. There is a disagreement on how known steroid users should be treated in the voting process. This trickles down to other players who played during the steroid era. Just being a power hitter during the 90’s is cause for a little scrutiny, fair or not. To those who were clean during this era, their numbers have been overshadowed by those who were juicing. Some writers will vote for steroid users or ones under suspicion, others will not. Thus, those players are stuck in purgatory, too many votes to fall off the ballot, not enough to gain election. This has an unfortunate side effect on other players.

Some very good players have been victims to this crowded ballot and failed to gain the 5% necessary vote to remain on the ballot. Kenny Lofton and Jim Edmonds are two names that come immediately to mind. They may not be Hall of Fame players, but they put up some very nice numbers, ones that deserved more consideration and argument. Due to the high number of players on the ballot and the Hall of Fame’s refusal to up the limit a writer can vote for from 10, these players fell off the ballot. There will be more ballot casualties in the future unless something is done to rectify the situation.

2018 Class of Hitters

Vladimir Guerrero of the Montreal Expos. Mandatory Credit: Brian Bahr /Allsport

This year’s ballot features 19 hitters. Nine of these are holdovers from previous ballots after surpassing the necessary 5% of the vote. Vladimir Guerrero is the one most likely to join the Hall of Fame ranks this year after receiving 71.7% of the vote last year. Edgar Martinez, entering his final year on the ballot, might be the most interesting case this year. Barry Bonds, Manny Ramirez, Larry Walker, Fred McGriff, Jeff Kent, Gary Sheffield and Sammy Sosa also will appear on the ballot again.

The 10 newcomers are headlined by Chipper Jones and Jim Thome, who are likely headed for enshrinement. They are joined by Scott Rolen, Andruw Jones, Johnny Damon, Omar Vizquel, Orlando Hudson, Carlos Lee, Aubrey Huff, and Hideki Matsui.

Rk	Name	YoB	% of Ballots	Yrs	R	H	HR	RBI	SB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2	Vladimir Guerrero	2nd	71.7%	16	1328	2590	449	1496	181	.318	.379	.553	.931
3	Edgar Martinez	9th	58.6%	18	1219	2247	309	1261	49	.312	.418	.515	.933
5	Barry Bonds	6th	53.8%	22	2227	2935	762	1996	514	.298	.444	.607	1.051
8	Manny Ramirez	2nd	23.8%	19	1544	2574	555	1831	38	.312	.411	.585	.996
9	Larry Walker	8th	21.9%	17	1355	2160	383	1311	230	.313	.400	.565	.965
10	Fred McGriff	9th	21.7%	19	1349	2490	493	1550	72	.284	.377	.509	.886
11	Jeff Kent	5th	16.7%	17	1320	2461	377	1518	94	.290	.356	.500	.855
12	Gary Sheffield	4th	13.3%	22	1636	2689	509	1676	253	.292	.393	.514	.907
14	Sammy Sosa	6th	8.6%	18	1475	2408	609	1667	234	.273	.344	.534	.878
15	Chipper Jones	1st		19	1619	2726	468	1623	150	.303	.401	.529	.930
16	Jim Thome	1st		22	1583	2328	612	1699	19	.276	.402	.554	.956
17	Scott Rolen	1st		17	1211	2077	316	1287	118	.281	.364	.490	.855
18	Andruw Jones	1st		17	1204	1933	434	1289	152	.254	.337	.486	.823
20	Johnny Damon	1st		18	1668	2769	235	1139	408	.284	.352	.433	.785
23	Omar Vizquel	1st		24	1445	2877	80	951	404	.272	.336	.352	.688
26	Orlando Hudson	1st		11	648	1319	93	542	85	.273	.341	.412	.752
29	Carlos Lee	1st		14	1125	2273	358	1363	125	.285	.339	.483	.821
30	Aubrey Huff	1st		13	806	1699	242	904	37	.278	.342	.464	.806
31	Hideki Matsui	1st		10	656	1253	175	760	13	.282	.360	.462	.822

The Holdovers

Edgar Martinez hit the ball so hard his bats caught on fire.

With Vlad likely to make the Hall of Fame this year, will any other holdovers join him? Edgar Martinez is getting some strong support entering his final season on the ballot. But can he make up 17% of the vote with several strong newcomers joining the ballot? There are a lot of worthy names to vote for. How much more support will known steroid users receive? Barry Bonds’ vote totals have been creeping up, while Manny Ramirez is receiving less than one quarter of the vote. Sammy Sosa looks to be in danger of fading off the ballot after garnering less than 10% of the vote last year.

Joining them are players being overshadowed by their era and pushed out by a crowded ballot. Fred McGriff, who I plan on covering more extensively later, is a long ways off from enshrinement. Jeff Kent fits in the same boat, the all-time home run leader as a second baseman finished with less than 20% of the vote last year. Meanwhile, Larry Walker’s big numbers have been tainted by “The Coors Effect” as much as steroid users numbers have been tainted. Worthy or not, none of them look like they will be joining the ranks anytime soon.

The Newcomers

Chipper had a swing of beauty.

As mentioned earlier, Chipper Jones and Jim Thome will almost certainly be voted in. Who else can we expect to see join them among the newcomers? My guess would be no one this year. I have already covered three likely to be voted in this year. With Edgar Martinez garnering a strong push, he seems to be the most likely to make it if a fourth joins the group. That doesn’t leave room for anyone else. But, that doesn’t mean some of these names won’t make it at a later date.

Scott Rolen will gather some support. However, he fought injuries for a lot of his career, leaving his enshrinement with a lot of question marks. Andruw Jones looked like a sure thing after a decade in the league. Jones was the best defensive center fielder in the league for a stretch and was hitting 30+ homers a season. Then he decided he liked food a little more than being a great ballplayer. The new age “statistics” do not favor Omar Vizquel, but he was the best defender of his generation at a premium position. Not only that, he only fell 123 hits shy of 3000. Vizquel should have a case down the road.

The others first appearing on the ballot don’t seem to have any shot. Johnny Damon is the only other name who might attract a few votes after piling up over 2700 career hits. Orlando Hudson, Carlos Lee, Aubrey Huff and Hideki Matsui, although fine players, fall well short of Hall of Fame consideration.