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Belichick and Carroll: What The Coaching Gap Looks Like

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Six-time Super Bowl Champion. Sixteen division titles. A 225 win record and 19 seasons in New England. Put it all together and you get Bill Belichick.

The facts don’t lie. Belichick is one of the most successful coaches in the NFL ever. Heading into his 20th season, the next best coach in the league has a tough task trying to match up.

So who falls number two behind BB in the standings? According to NFL.com analyst Elliot Harrison, it belongs to Seattle Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll.

Carroll’s head coaching career began in 1994 with the New York Jets, three years after Belichick took his first head coaching gig in Cleveland. His first shot was short-lived, however, and Carroll was off to San Francisco the following two seasons as a defensive coordinator.

In 1997, Carroll replaced Bill Parcells as the head coach of the New England Patriots. That first season resulted in an AFC Divisional Game appearance. In his next two season, the Patriots would finish fourth in the AFC East.

After the 1999 season, Patriots owner Robert Kraft had a decision to make. Should he stay with Carroll or take a chance on another guy? The decision was to fire Carroll and hire Belichick and, well, the rest has made history.

Next, Carroll took the head job at USC. He spent nine seasons with the Trojans. They won four of five Rose Bowl appearances, among other Bowl games.

So what separates Carroll from Belichick? Well, numbers don’t lie.

In six NFC Divisional Games, Carroll has lost four. He has only one Super Bowl ring. The Seahawks made two consecutive Super Bowls, losing in their second appearance in 2014 to, you guessed it, Bill Belichick.

On the positive end, what makes Carroll number two is his production each season.

Throughout his nine seasons in Seattle, Carroll’s Seahawks have finished first in the NFC West four times. They have only missed the playoffs twice in his tenure.

The “Legion of Boom” era made the Seahawks the team to beat at one point but, like any team, they’ve dealt with injuries to key players. Russell Wilson struggled with an ankle injury to start the 2016 season. To end that same season, Richard Sherman revealed he had been playing on an MCL injury. Carroll was still able to lead his team to first in the NFC West and make the Divisional Game for the sixth time.

The gap between Belichick and Carroll is large, but that is due to taking different paths. Belichick remained in the NFL throughout his entire coaching career, while Carroll spent some time in the college game.

By the time Carroll returned to the NFL in 2010, Belichick and Brady had been on a 10-year run. Carroll was starting from scratch, trying to build a dynasty that the Patriots had long-established by then.

It’s hard to say that if Carroll spent those nine years at USC in the NFL that the coaching gap would be closer. One can assume, however, that it would be the case.

As he closes in on a decade with the Seattle organization, many expect Carroll to only add accolades to his resume. Surely he will give Belichick a run for his money whenever he gets that next opportunity.

The Top Shortstops Long-Term

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The shortstop position has become increasingly talented in recent seasons. The position is now the best, and deepest, arguably since Nomar, A-Rod, and Jeter were reigning supreme nearly two decades ago. The top five is loaded, and the position has great depth. The shortstops near the bottom of my top ten list would have threatened the top five a few years ago. Shortstops not making the list would have been safely included. With all this competition, it was hard to leave a few guys off.

1. Carlos Correa

Correa is coming off a season with an OPS 65 points higher than Manny Machado has ever posted. With all of Machado’s fanfare and his big home run seasons, this was a surprising revelation. Just 22 years old last season and having posted a .941 OPS, Correa is the top shortstop to own for the long haul in the Majors.

Correa burst onto the scene in 2015, winning Rookie of the Year in a little more than half a season. Over his three seasons, aged 20-22, he has batted .288 with an .863 OPS. There is only room for improvement as he enters his age 23 season. Correa missed time last year, hitting 24 home runs in only 109 games. Assuming he stays healthy, I foresee his first 30 homer, 100 RBI season this year. Correa has also proved himself on the big stage at such a young age, homering five times during the postseason last year.

Correa is also fairly polished at shortstop at his young age. He has a solid .978 fielding percentage in each of the last two seasons and has a positive dWAR in all three. According to baseball reference’s total zone runs, Correa was worth eight defensive runs above average this past season.

2. Manny Machado

Primarily known as a third baseman, and a fine defensive one at that, Machado is moving to shortstop full time for this coming season. He started 43 games at the position last year, performing adequately but posting a negative zone rating. With a full offseason to prepare, maybe he will be a little better in 2018. After all, Machado was a two time Gold Glove winner at third base.

He also needs to rebound at the plate, coming off his worst season since 2014. That’s not to say he was bad, he did hit 33 homers after all. However, Machado’s average fell from .290 over the previous two seasons down to .259. His OPS also dropped nearly 100 points. I would expect a bit of a rebound, he did finish in the top five in back-to-back MVP votes before last season. Machado has also homered 105 times over the past three years. If there is one place where his skill set lags a bit behind, it’s in taking pitches and drawing walks. Machado has drawn a total of 49 walks over the past two seasons and posted a disappointing .310 on-base percentage last year.

3. Corey Seager

Seager was my favorite prospect in baseball after batting .349 with 20 home runs in 2014. He came in 5th in Baseball America’s prospect rankings heading into 2015, and his performance catapulted him to the top of their list for 2016. Two full seasons into his Major League career and he has not disappointed. Seager has batted .305 during his short career while posting an .876 OPS. He already has a Rookie of the Year, two Silver Sluggers and a third place MVP finish.

Seager has a beautiful, level swing, leading to a lot of hard contact. Despite hitting only 22 home runs, Seager had a top 25 average exit velocity in all of baseball last season. His 25% line drive rate was in the top ten. This leads me to believe that Seager will improve upon both his 22 home runs and his 33 doubles from a year ago. Two years ago he had 26 homers and 40 doubles, and it wouldn’t even be a surprise to see him eclipse those. Even if he doesn’t, Seager is an excellent, well-rounded hitter. He has a .374 career on-base percentage with a .502 slugging percentage.

Seager made some strides in the field last year, which makes sense given he was still only 23 years old. He cut his errors down from 18 to 11 while improving his fielding percentage to .979. Seager also went from two runs saved below average in 2016 to 11 runs above average last year. He might not wow in any one category, but Seager looks like an across the board producer for years to come.

4. Francisco Lindor

Lindor turned into a very different player from the one that he was expected to be last year. Coming through the minors, he was projected to be a high contact hitter who would play excellent defense. That’s exactly what happened his first two years, batting over .300 both seasons with moderate pop. Last year, his average dropped down to .273 while his home runs more than doubled to 33. His doubles also skyrocketed, going from 30 to 44. Lindor seemed to sell out a bit for power, which wasn’t necessary given his excellent performance to that point. It leaves me curious to find out which Lindor we will see moving forward. Either way, both are excellent players.

Lindor is an excellent defender, posting a 5.7 dWAR in less than three full seasons. He has posted a 49 defensive runs saved above average during that time and has a .981 fielding percentage. His glove work netted him the Gold Glove in 2016.

5. Trea Turner

After being a top prospect, Trea Turner has been electric since getting the call to the big leagues. After getting a chance in 2016, Turner was one of the very best hitters in baseball. He batted .342 with a .937 OPS. Trea Turner is also a burner on the basepaths and stole 33 bases that season. Last year, his numbers dropped off a bit, as they almost had to. Turner batted .284 with a .789 OPS while missing some time with injury. He again showed off his wheels, stealing 46 bases in only 98 games.

I don’t think Turner is as good as he was two years ago, but is probably better than last year. When you combine the two seasons, you get a .304 hitter with an .840 OPS. With his gap power and his speed, Turner gets a lot of extra-base hits, averaging 32 doubles and 11 triples over 162 games for his career. He seems to be capable of hitting .300 with 15-20 home runs while hitting a lot of doubles and triples. All of this and he is also capable of stealing 50 bags.

Turner falls well behind the rest of the pack in the field though. Despite being relatively sure-handed, Turner does not have the range for the position. He had a decent .979 fielding percentage last year, yet his total zone rating gave him 11 defensive runs below average last season. His range factor, at 3.91, was easily below the average of 4.15. Second base could be in Trea’s future.

Brad Mills – USA Today Sports

6. Didi Gregorious

Remember when Didi was a glove first prospect? Coming through the minors, he was supposed to be a light-hitting, glove first shortstop. His defense has been decent, but nothing special to this point. However, his bat has carried him. Gregorious is one of the better hitting shortstops in baseball, hitting 45 home runs over the past two seasons. This is after he homered 26 times in over 2000 minor league at-bats. It isn’t just Yankee Stadium either, as Gregorious posted far better stats on the road last year.

One thing that holds Gregorious back some at the plate is his lack of walks. Gregorious has only drawn 44 walks over the past two seasons combined. This has led to a sub-par .311 on-base percentage despite a good .281 batting average. He doesn’t strike out much though, making consistent contact requiring fielders to make a play on the ball. Take the good with the bad and I actually think this Yankee is a little underrated.

7. Paul DeJong

DeJong is a player who wasn’t on the radar of many people last year. He never made any top 100 prospect lists, so he wasn’t well known outside of the St. Louis organization. That’s not to say there isn’t some pedigree to his performance though. DeJong was a fourth round pick in 2015 and hit 22 home runs in AA the following year. Last year he had an OPS over .900 in AAA when he got the call-up to the Cardinals.

DeJong mashed the ball at the big league level, hitting 25 home runs in 108 games. He had a .285 average for the season, so it wasn’t a power or nothing approach. Despite him not cracking any prospect lists, I think based on his high draft position and his performance in the minor leagues that DeJong’s bat is for real. His glove was relatively average based upon every metric, but that kind of bat coupled with an average glove is a heck of a shortstop.

8. Andrelton Simmons

Simmons is on here for one reason; he is one of the best defensive shortstops you will ever see. Simmons routinely makes the highlight reels for the plays he makes in the field. He has a .982 career fielding percentage which doesn’t come close to telling the whole story. Simmons tends to get to a lot of balls others wouldn’t, which can lead to a few more errors. His range is in a class by itself.

Simmons bat took a step forward last year, so it will be interesting to see if the juiced balls helped aid that or if he is making progress. After posting just a .664 OPS over the previous four seasons, Simmons had a career high .752 OPS last year. He hit .278 with 14 home runs a year after batting .281 in his first season with the Angels. He kept his average up from his Atlanta days while adding a little more pop.

9. Xander Bogaerts

Bogaerts is still only 25 despite being a part of the Red Sox World Series team in 2013. There is a pretty good chance I am underselling Bogaerts in this spot, as he was a huge prospect who has proven capable of hitting well in the majors. Bogaerts was twice a top 10 prospect in all of baseball according to Baseball America, topping out at second in 2014. He also has a season in which he batted .320 and another during which he homered 21 times. Bogaerts was off to a good start last year, batting .303 in the first half. A wrist injury caused his hitting ability to fall off in the second half and leave him with a .273 average. A healthy Bogaerts could hit .300 with 20 home runs.

If Bogaerts does rebound at the plate, his glove is still likely to hold him back some. He has a negative dWAR in three of his four seasons and negative defensive runs saved in all four. His .977 career fielding percentage at the position isn’t bad, but his range is well below average.

Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts hits a ground-rule double to right in the ninth inning of the ALCS, Game 4 at Comerica Park against the Tigers in 2013. Staff Photo by Matt Stone

10. Elvis Andrus

Andrus is someone I considered the most overrated shortstop in baseball for a few years. Given a big contract, Andrus batted just .264 with a very weak .657 OPS from 2015-2017. However, Andrus now has two consecutive years of good play at the plate in addition to his defense. After seven years in the league, Andrus batted a career high .302 while also hitting a career high eight home runs in 2016. Yes, eight was his career high after eight seasons and he somehow hit 20 home runs last year. A little change in his approach may have helped, but I am a little skeptical of him repeating that. Even still, he batted .297 a year after hitting .302. He also saved 23 runs above average on defense according to the total zone rating on baseballreference.com.

Honorable Mentions:

Jean Segura, Dansby Swanson, Addison Russell, Zack Cozart, Orlando Arcia, Trevor Story

 

Featured picture from the Sporting News

The Top First Basemen in Baseball

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First base is one of the deepest positions in the league. As such, there will be plenty of talented players left off this list. Also, whereas Joey Votto is arguably the best first baseman right now, at the age of 34 he drops a few spots for the purposes of my list. I factor in age and answer the question, who would I most want to start a team with? I could easily go 15 deep in this list, but sticking with the theme, here are my top 10.

1. Paul Goldschmidt

Paul Goldschmidt is about as steady as they come. Year in, year out, he puts up big numbers without as much publicity as the game’s top stars. Make no mistake, he is one of the top stars in the game. Goldy, as he is affectionately called, hasn’t batted below .297 since 2012 and has eclipsed 30 home runs three times during that span. 2013 was his true breakout season, leading the league with 36 home runs, 125 RBI and a .952 OPS. Two years later he was even better, batting .321 with 33 home runs and a career high 1.005 OPS. In a stat that adjusts for ballpark and other factors, Goldschmidt also posted a career best 168 OPS+. He finished 2nd in the MVP vote for the second time in three years. Last season he finished third in the vote after hitting 36 home runs.

Goldschmidt is also perhaps the best baserunner amongst first basemen. He stole 18 bags for the second time in his career last season. The year before he had stolen a career high 32 bases! Goldschmidt isn’t fast, he is just adept at getting big leads and reading a pitcher. According to Mike Petriello of MLB.com, Goldschmidt has an average lead of nearly 15 feet when he attempts to steal a base. The average lead is less than 12 feet. In the field, Goldschmidt has a career .996 fielding percentage and has won 3 Gold Gloves. He is a very well-rounded player and my choice for the best first baseman in baseball.

2. Freddie Freeman

Freeman has always been a good player, but his game has gone to new heights the past two years. Over his first five seasons, Freeman was a .286 hitter and averaged 21 home runs per season with an .835 OPS. The beginning of 2016 was much the same, but starting in June, he changed his hitting approach. His adjustments helped him see the ball longer and to stay on the pitch. Since, he has been one of the best hitters in baseball.

Freeman wound up hitting .302 with 34 homers and a .968 OPS that season. This past year, despite missing time with an injury, Freeman hit .307 with 28 home runs and a career high .989 OPS. The OPS was the second highest among first basemen in the Major Leagues. This all led to a 4.5 WAR despite only accumulating 440 at-bats. Still just 28 years old, there is no reason Freeman shouldn’t continue this stellar play for years to come.

3. Anthony Rizzo

Anthony Rizzo has overcome a lot to get where he is now. A top prospect with the Red Sox, Rizzo had to conquer cancer at the age of 18. He was traded to San Diego and did not find immediate Major League success. Reacquired by Theo Epstein, the man who initially brought him to Boston, Rizzo started showing why he was a big prospect. For four seasons now he has been one of the better first basemen in the league.

Over these past four seasons, Rizzo has hit over 30 home runs in each season. During that time he has batted .282 with a .387/.522/.910 triple slash. There haven’t been many more consistent power threats in the game during that span. At 28 years old, Rizzo is part of the same generation as Goldschmidt and Freeman and should be hitting baseballs over the wall for plenty of years to come.

Anthony Rizzo of the Chicago Cubs hits a two run home run in the 4th inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Wrigley Field on July 7, 2017. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel)

4. Cody Bellinger

At just 22 years old last year, Bellinger led all first baseman in home runs with 39. His .933 OPS placed 4th at the position while his .581 slugging percentage was second to Freddie Freeman. At such a young age, Bellinger should have more years to offer than those above him on this list, but they are all young enough they should produce well for an entire length of a contract. I also trust the ones above him to perform more consistently. Bellinger was a top prospect, and I have no doubt he will keep performing, but I’d like to see more before elevating him above established superstars.

Bellinger has revamped his swing in recent years and gets incredible lift on the ball, so the power is likely to stay. Whereas he used to be “stiff” at the plate, Dodgers coaches worked with him through the minors to change his style. Bellinger went from hitting four home runs over 377 at-bats in 2013 and 2014, to hitting 30 homers in 2015. The one downside, if any, is that he strikes out a fair amount and doesn’t hit for as high an average as those above him. At just 22, I can see him improve that area of his game without sacrificing a great deal of power.

5. Joey Votto

As I said in the opening, Votto is arguably the best first baseman in the league. However, he is 34 years old. The guys above him likely have six or more years of star play left, Votto might have two or three before he starts to decline. Still, I will take two or three years of superstar play and then a couple more years of decent play over just good play for six years.

In Votto’s first full season he batted .297. In 2014, he missed half the season with injury and only batted .255. He has batted above .300 all of the other nine seasons in his career. He has led the league in on-base percentage six times, including each of the last two. Votto is coming off a season arguably equal to his MVP season of 2010, batting .320 with 36 home runs and a .454/.578/1.032 slash line. He is a remarkable hitter, putting up stellar numbers while rarely popping out. Over the last three seasons, Votto has batted .320 with a 1.006 OPS. He is averaging 31 home runs per season and has walked more times than he has struck out. Currently, Votto is showing no signs of slowing down, and hopefully he can continue this play for a couple more seasons.

6. Eric Hosmer

Incredibly, Hosmer remains unsigned at the time this article was released. What a strange offseason of baseball. Hosmer doesn’t stand out across the board, but he offers production at just about every level. He’s capable of hitting for a solid average with decent pop and he plays good defense. He has had a strange career offensively, alternating good seasons with poor ones for the first five seasons. His average has still followed an up and down year-by-year course to this day. He seems to have added more power to his game though, homering 25 times in each of the past two seasons.

Defensive metrics don’t like Hosmer, giving him a negative dWAR in every season of his career. He has a .995 career fielding percentage though, and not everyone who watches him play can be wrong. Those that see him think he is a good defender and he has won four Gold Gloves. He doesn’t steal bases like he used to, stealing 22 over the past four seasons compared to the 38 during his first three seasons. However, he plays nearly every day. In fact, he did play all 162 games last season. He has only missed time with injury in one season out of seven.

7. Jose Abreu

Jose Abreu is a one-dimensional first baseman. Luckily for him, that one dimension is a pretty good one. Since coming to the states, Abreu has homered 30 times in three out of four seasons. He is a career .301 hitter with an .883 OPS. He’s not super young, having just turned 31, but he isn’t old either. He should be a fine hitter for several years to come. The question comes, when will he move to designated hitter? Abreu is a weak defender, making 35 errors and totaling a -5.3 dWAR in his four Major League seasons. He also is a slow baserunner, stealing six bases and grounding into 72 double plays to date.

8. Josh Bell

Josh Bell has been a top prospect for years. Debuting on Baseball America’s top 100 list prior to 2012, Bell spent four seasons as part of the list. Considered a polished hitter, scouts swore the power would come from the 6’2″ 230 pound Bell. He never homered more than 14 times in any minor league season. However, he batted over .300 twice while drawing a lot of walks.

Bell’s rookie season therefore came as a bit of a surprise. Bell only batted .255 last year, but homered 26 times while driving in 90 runs. This was a very different player from what we saw in the minors. They say power develops later, and he was always suspected of having it in him, so I am buying the home runs. His average though, I only see improving. Bell hit .303 with a .373 on-base percentage in the minor leagues. Maybe he will have a harder time batting .300 at the big league level, but I suspect he is capable of batting at least .280. A .280 average would likely mean a .350-.360 on-base percentage along with 25-30 home runs. Bell is still only 25 years old.

9. Matt Olson

Matt Olson has big time power. He never got quite as much publicity as Joey Gallo before last year, but he can mash a lot of home runs without threatening all-time strikeout records. Olson hit 23 and 37 home runs in 2013 and 2014 in the low minors. He fell off some in the upper minors before returning with a vengeance last season. Olson hit 23 home runs at the AAA level before homering 24 times over 189 Major League at-bats. His Major League slash line was an astounding .352/.651/1.003. He combined to hit 47 home runs over 483 at-bats between the two highest levels.

Olson has never, and never will hit for a high average. However, he isn’t likely to hit .200 either. Olson was a career .249 hitter in the minor leagues with a .360 on-base percentage. He is likely to settle in as a .240-.250 hitter with an on-base percentage roughly 100 points higher. For a guy who should hit between 30 and 40 home runs a year, that is plenty valuable. He could be an Adam Dunn type player who doesn’t walk quite as much if he continues on last year’s path. At just 23 and not even a full season in the bigs, I am more willing to bet on Olson’s upside than some other guys who just produced for the first time at the age of 30.

Matt Olson follows the flight of his homer at Detroit last week. He averaged one home run every 7.88 plate appearances.

10. Wil Myers

There were a bunch of guys jockeying for these last couple spots, but I ultimately sided with Myers. He has done more than most by the age of 27. I found myself surprised that he is still that young given how long he has been around. Myers is fast for the position, having come up as a corner outfielder. His 20 stolen bases last season led the position. He stole even more, 28, in 2016. Over these past two seasons in San Diego, Myers has hit 58 homers and stolen 48 bases. That’s a pretty good power-speed combination.

The area in which Myers could stand to improve is getting on base. He has batted just .251 over those two seasons with a middling .332 on-base percentage. His power and speed combo at 27 years old is enough to make me side with him at the 10 spot though. I also wonder if he might hit a little better elsewhere, as 22 of his 30 home runs last season came on the road. Of course, his splits for 2016 were skewered to be far more successful at home.

Honorable Mentions:

Justin Bour, Justin Smoak, Matt Carpenter, Joey Gallo, Logan Morrison, Carlos Santana, Yulieski Gurriel

 

Featured picture from zimbio.com

The Top Relievers in Baseball

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In today’s game, relief pitchers are used so often. Starters are often relied upon to only go five to six innings, then turn it over to the pen to close things out for several innings. There are more relievers in the game, and more guys who throw in the upper 90’s. Nowadays, there are so many guys who can dominate for an inning, and oftentimes there are random guys who have one outstanding season. This can make it difficult to determine who is real and who is a pretender. In this article, I factor in age when determining my top 10.

Craig Kimbrel

Kimbrel is one of the most dominant stoppers the game has ever seen. From when he broke in during the 2010 season, through 2014, Kimbrel had a ridiculous 1.43 ERA while saving 186 games. During this time he struck out 14.8 batters per nine innings pitched and had a WHIP of 0.90. You really can’t be any better than he was. He did tail off for two seasons after leaving Atlanta, though he did save 70 games with a sub 3.00 ERA.

Last season, Kimbrel was back to his dominant self, pitching to a 1.43 ERA, the same ERA he had during his first five seasons. Kimbrel had a crazy low 0.68 WHIP and a filthy 16.4 strike outs per nine innings. In fact, if Kimbrel had struck out just one batter that managed to put the ball in play, he would have struck out exactly half of the batters he faced on the season. Still just 29 years old, Kimbrel should have plenty of run left as a dominant closer.

Kenley Jansen

Kimbrel and Jansen are clearly the top two relievers in baseball in my mind. It was them one-two, and then figuring out the rest. Jansen is remarkable in that he was a catcher in the minor leagues before becoming one of the most dominant relievers in the game. In parts of eight seasons, Jansen has posted an ERA below 2.00 in half of them. One of the top strike out artists in baseball, Jansen has struck out 14 batters per nine innings pitched during his career.

Jansen had arguably his best season last year, leading the league with 41 saves to go with his 5-0 record. He had the lowest ERA (1.32) and the lowest WHIP (0.75) of anyone with 11 or more innings pitched in the National League. Jansen has saved 230 games during his career. His ERA is 2.08 and he has a career 0.87 WHIP. Every number is among the league leaders during the time period.

Photo by John McCoy/So Cal News Group

Roberto Osuna

This might be a name that doesn’t come straight to mind for most. Osuna has not been around long, and pitches for a mediocre team north of the border. As such, Osuna doesn’t get the publicity others do. Make no mistake, Osuna is one of the best relief pitchers in baseball. Turning just 23 in less than a week, Osuna should be around much longer than guys behind him on this list.

As a closer, one thing you don’t want to do is allow baserunners. Osuna has a WHIP below 1.00 in all three seasons of his career, so he does a great job of limiting them. This past season, even though his ERA was a career high 3.38, Osuna allowed the fewest baserunners of his career at 0.86 per inning. He also allowed a career low three home runs, leading me to believe his still solid ERA was flukily high. With a little more luck, his ERA should dip back closer to 2.50 this coming season. Osuna has saved 95 games in his first three seasons, and at such a young age there is room for improvement.

Andrew Miller

If this list was just for 2018, Miller would be at least one spot higher. Easily the most dominant left-handed reliever in the game, Miller dominates both left-handed and right-handed hitters alike.

Over the last four years, Miller has been arguably more dominant than anyone. He is 22-11 over that span with a 1.72 ERA, 0.79 WHIP and 14.5 strike outs per nine innings. He can go for more than one innings, which he illustrated during the postseason over the past couple years. In postseason play, Miller has a 1.10 ERA over 32.2 innings pitched. He seems to dominate no matter the circumstance. Miller will be turning 33 in May, giving him a full decade on Roberto Osuna, causing me to place Osuna in the third spot. I will not argue the fact that at the moment, Miller is the better pitcher.

Matt Slocum/Associated Press

Dellin Betances

I was shocked when I looked up Betances and learned he would be 30 years old before the season starts. He has only been around for four years, so it seems like he should be much younger. He also has been less dominant the last two seasons than he was in his first two. However, Betances can still dominate and has great stuff, so he cracks my top five. After pitching to a 1.45 ERA in his first two seasons, Betances’ ERA in the last two is 2.98. His WHIP has also risen every season, going from 0.78 in 2014 to 1.22 last season. There are some warning signs, but this is still a guy who has struck out over 15 batters per nine in each of the last two years. Last year, only Craig Kimbrel had a better strike out rate in the AL.

Ken Giles

Ken Giles struggled this past postseason, but that should not be all you think about when it comes to him. At 27, Giles has been in the majors for four years. Giles has a 2.43 career ERA and 12.4 strike outs per nine. After dominating for two seasons in Philadelphia, Giles encountered his first struggles in 2016 with the Astros. Despite the struggles, he did strike out a career high 14 batters per nine. Reaffirming himself as one of the better relievers in baseball, Giles posted a 2.30 ERA for the Astros last year with a 1.04 WHIP. He bolstered the back end of the Houston bullpen as they made their race towards the playoffs. Giles should be a good closer for years to come.

Aroldis Chapman

One could definitely argue that Chapman should be higher on the list. After all, I do have Chapman approaching top 10 all-time status for relief pitchers. However, Chapman showed signs of cracking last season and will be 30 before the month is out. Not that 30 is old, but he has eight Major League seasons of throwing a ball 100 miles per hour. All the stress of throwing that hard could catch up to him. Late last year, his control was all over the place and he exhibited very poor body language on the mound at times. I also wonder then how he will handle the pressures of New York.

All that said, Chapman still posted good numbers, just far from the great ones we were used to from him. His ERA was its highest since 2011, as was his WHIP. Chapman also posted the lowest strike outs per nine of his career. For his career though, Chapman has struck out nearly 15 batters per nine innings while allowing one baserunner per inning. He has surpassed 200 career saves with a 2.21 ERA.

Cody Allen

A man who can keep Andrew Miller from being a closer must be a pretty good pitcher, and Cody Allen is that man. He isn’t better than Miller, but Miller is more valuable in a role where he can be plugged in at opportune times, and Allen is plenty good enough to hold down the fort when his time comes. In five full seasons, Allen has had an ERA below 3.00 in all of them. He has saved 122 games while pitching to a 2.67 ERA. Whether it’s gone noticed or not, Allen has been even better in the playoffs. Over 19.1 postseason innings, Allen has allowed 1 earned run while striking out 33 batters.

Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

Corey Knebel

Based just upon last year, Knebel should maybe be several spots higher on this list. I’d like to see him do it for another year though, as he kind of came out of nowhere last year to be one of the very best closers in the game. Knebel was a first round pick, so there is reason to think he can possibly continue his dominance. However, before last year Knebel had a career ERA north of 4.00 along with a relatively high WHIP. He had struck out a good amount of batters, but not near the rate at which he did this past year.

Last season, Knebel saved 39 games for the Brewers while striking out just a tick under 15 batters per nine innings. Knebel’s ERA hovered around 1.00 for half the season before one poor game. He then didn’t allow a run in 21 of his next 22 appearances to get his ERA back in the low 1.00’s. He faded a little in the last week or two of the season, possibly tiring out as he pitched more than ever before. Knebel finished the season with a 1.78 ERA

Zach Britton

Heading into last year, Britton would have likely been in the top three of this list. After an injury plagued season, and one much worse than we have been accustomed to, Britton has some rebounding to do. Problem is, he is injured again and expected to miss half this season. He is also 30 years old now. All of that has him dropped, but I felt he still needed to be included based upon how dominant he has proven to be when healthy. Britton was a legitimate Cy Young candidate in 2016, allowing just four earned runs over 67 innings pitched. He led the league with 47 saves that year along with his 0.54 ERA.

Over the three seasons prior to last year, Britton had a 1.38 ERA and 0.91 WHIP while saving 120 games. He was probably the best closer in the game during that three year stretch. Last year his WHIP skyrocketed to an unhealthy 1.53, though he still managed a 2.89 ERA due to his ground ball tendencies. Even if Britton comes back and shows some rust this season after missing half the year, I expect him to ultimately return to being a dominant closer again for a few years.

Honorable Mentions:

Edwin Diaz, Raisel Iglesias, Brad Hand, Wade Davis, Greg Holland