Tag Archives: bryce harper

Mookie Betts Is The Best Value In Baseball

Yesterday the New York Post’s Joel Sherman detailed how much money Mookie Betts has turned down in recent years. Mookie then gave an interview to Red Sox reporters this morning detailing how he loves it here, but will be going to free agency instead of signing a long-term deal. Cue the hang wringing across Red Sox Nation.

But the fact Mookie is going year to year for the next two years makes him the greatest value in the majors right now.

Current Contract

Betts and the Red Sox recently agreed on a $20 million contract for 2019. That set a record for a player who was subject to salary arbitration. There was speculation that Nolan Arenado would break that, before he signed an 8 year $260 Million contract instead.

Mookie has one more year of arbitration before hitting his goal of free agency. If he follows up 2018 with something similar in 2019 he’s going to set an all time record in arbitration that will be hard to beat. The Red Sox have Mookie under arbitration control for only this year and next. He will become a free agent after the 2020 season.

Historic Footing

In 2018 Mookie Betts had a 10.9 WAR according to Baseball Reference. That is 21st on the All Time list. Number one is Babe Ruth’s 1923 at 14.1, second is Ruth’s 1921 at 12.9. You get the picture. The only post 2000 seasons in front of Mookie’s are Barry Bonds in 2001 and 2002.

Value

A lot of uneasiness is coming from Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, and Nolan Arenado signing long term deals, while Mookie is refusing to. None of those players have a higher WAR season than Mookie has right now.

Currently teams are agreeing on 8 to 10 year contracts at $30 plus million dollars for the privilege of having those players on their teams. None of those guys, including Trout, has ever had a better season than Mookie. Trout is the only one with an argument. Harper’s best season was his 10 WAR season in 2015.

Again, the Red Sox are paying Mookie Betts $20 Million this year. If he is true to his word, he will not sign a long-term extension before hitting free agency.

Risk

How many long term contracts have ever worked out in the Major Leagues? Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Alex Rodriguez, Robinson Cano – these are cautionary tales. Yes, Harper and Machado, and Trout and Arenado to a lesser extent, are all younger that those other guys when they got those big contracts. But injuries, declining performance, bad team relationships, and PED use are among the many risks that come with long term deals.

The Red Sox have the luxury of the possibility of two more outstanding seasons from Mookie Betts at the shortest possible term. Yes, it would be painful to see him in another uniform. But the Red Sox cannot make him sign a contract.

It’s All Good

This is a reason for celebration Sox Nation, not doom. If the Red Sox win the World Series again in the next two years, then lose Mookie Betts to another team in free agency, that is a win.

And give it time. The Red Sox can never be counted out when it comes to paying out big contracts. The big payroll situations come at the end of 2019. They can meet any rivals head on when Mookie’s free agency hits after 2020.

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BSE Baseball Writers MLB Awards Predictions

With the baseball season arriving, our baseball writers have come together to predict the 2019 award winners. In this article we each choose the winner of the MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year and Manager of the Year Awards for the coming season. We will follow shortly with a second article predicting the division winners and postseason results for the coming season.

American League Most Valuable Player

Thom Howland: Jose Ramirez hit .270 last year with an unlucky 25% hit rate. With his top tier power, peak age, and a Cleveland team gunning for another AL Central crown, the time is ripe for his MVP closeup. Dark horse candidate – Jose Abreu

Scott Frizzell: It is just so hard to pick against Mike Trout. The new $430 million dollar man has finished in the top two every year of his career except one, when he finished fourth after missing six weeks of action. Dark horse candidate – Andrew Benintendi

John Principe: Coming off a year that didn’t end in him winning the MVP, I fully expect Mike Trout to again put up his insane numbers. He’s the closest thing in sports to a perennial lock, and is my pick to stay healthy and win his third MVP. Dark horse candidate – Matt Chapman

Ben Rolfe: Yes, it is the boring pick, but Mike Trout is so far above anyone else in baseball right now it is incredible. If we ignore his small rookie appearance then Trout’s average WAR is 9.2 per year and his numbers are something out of a video game. Dark horse candidate – Luke Voit

Mike Quilty: Mike Trout may be the favorite, but I think Alex Bregman will have a huge year for Houston.

Mike Trout is always a safe bet to be near the top.

National League Most Valuable Player

Thom Howland: Kris Bryant, the former MVP, is over the injuries that sapped his power last year. The Cubs are being counted out, and he will be at the center of their resurgence. Dark horse candidate – Ronald Acuna

Scott Frizzell: Paul Goldschmidt is leaving the desert for St. Louis this season, and I think he will put up his usual big numbers while helping lead the Cardinals back to the postseason for the first time since 2015. After a dreadful first two months last year, Goldy batted .330 with 26 home runs and a 1.022 OPS from June 1st on. Dark horse candidate – Ronald Acuna

John Principe: Bryce Harper is coming off an okay year, but a great contract, what’s in store for him? The new Philly slugger, to me, is poised to breakout again and have his best season since his MVP year in 2015. Look for Bryce to put up another season with an OPS over 1.000, carry his Phils to an NL East title, and win MVP while he’s at it. Dark horse candidate – Ronald Acuna

Ben Rolfe: Nolan Arenado is one of the best fielders at his position and he hits in Coors Field, which always means his hitting numbers will be right up there. His best chance is if he can lead the Rockies back to the playoffs. Dark horse candidate – Jesus Aguilar

Mike Quilty: Paul Goldschmidt had never won the award before but has been close multiple times as a D-Back. After a trade to St. Louis a change of scenery may be just what he needs.

Paul Goldschmidt joins a new team for the first time in his career.

American League Cy Young

Thom Howland: The all-time MLB leader in K/9 and K/BB will put it all together this year. After 6 straight Top 5 AL Cy Young finishes, Chris Sale will finally gain the top spot in 2019. Dark horse candidate – Eduardo Rodriguez

Scott Frizzell: Coming off a fantastic first season in Houston, I will choose Gerrit Cole to win the Cy Young this year. There is no one candidate this year that stands out to me. Dark horse candidate – Shane Bieber

John Principe: Despite struggling in the second half of 2018, I expect a massive year out of Jose Berrios. The bats are a little better behind him, which should work to his advantage. He’s a nasty pitcher with devastating off-speed stuff and will have a good chance to finish at least top 5 in Cy Young voting. Dark horse candidate – Mike Clevinger

Ben Rolfe: The drop in velocity for Chris Sale has me scared, and Gerrit Cole looked so dominant at times last year. He will be a crucial part of a playoff bound rotation and could win 20 games this season.

Mike Quilty: Chris Sale has come in the top five in each of the last six years. Injury last season ended his first shot at the award as he was pitching well. I think Sale will have an amazing year in 2019 and win his first Cy Young.

Chris Sale always finishes in the top five, but can he finally win the coveted award?

National League Cy Young

Thom Howland: Noah Syndergaard went 4-1 with two shutouts in September of last year. Finally healthy after years of nagging injuries, and with an improved Mets team behind him, the promise of his 97+ MPH fastball and devastating off-speed stuff will bring home the NL Cy Young in 2019. Dark horse candidate – Luis Castillo

Scott Frizzell: I tried Noah Syndergaard last season and instead his teammate won the award. I’m going him again. Syndergaard has the stuff to win it, reaching into the upper-90’s with his fastball with a devastating slider thrown around 92. Dark horse candidate – Walker Buehler

John Principe: Walker Buehler came up and absolutely dominated last year. With Kershaw ready to pass the load (and possibly ace status) on to Buehler, this could be a huge breakout year for him in establishing himself as a premier pitcher in the NL. Dark horse candidate – Kyle Freeland

Ben Rolfe: Patrick Corbin moves to a rotation which is known for pitching success on the back of a great 2018. Pitching alongside Max Scherzer gives a perfect person for him to be compared to all season in order to win this award. Dark horse candidate – Robbie Ray

Mike Quilty: Max Scherzer has won three times already, and had a career high last season with 300 strikeouts. He went 18-7 with a 2.53 era and probably would’ve won his fourth if not for Jacob deGrom and his historic season.

“Thor” has electric stuff, but has had some injury troubles.

American League Rookie of the Year

Thom Howland: As a 19-year-old, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. rocketed from Rookie Ball all the way to AAA last year. Along the way he managed a .381 average, 20 Home Runs, and 29 Doubles. He’ll be delayed by a few weeks, but this 20-year-old will rake once he makes the show. Dark horse candidate – Josh James

Scott Frizzell: Eloy Jimenez could have a fantastic rookie season, but it’s hard to go against Vladimir Guerrero Jr. after he hit .402 at AA last season. This could shape up similarly to the Ronald Acuna vs Juan Soto race for Rookie of the Year last season. Dark horse candidate – Josh James

John Principe: Possibly the easiest category of all, Vlad Jr. is poised for greatness regardless of when his call-up comes. He’ll be in the show this season, hopefully by the middle of May at the latest. Even with his competitors getting possibly an extra month to pad their stats, Vlad should easily win this award. Dark horse candidate – Yusei Kikuchi

Ben Rolfe: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is not a particularly fun pick, but I cannot see who else it will be. Guerrero is so talented and in a hitter friendly park, he will have every chance to put up huge numbers. Dark horse candidate – Yusei Kikuchi

Mike Quilty: Vladimir Guerrero Jr, 19-year-old son of HOF Vladimir Guerrero has dominated every level he’s played at to this point. He’s a great talent with great lineage and will now showcase his talent in the big leagues.

Vlad Jr. is the only unanimous choice.

National League Rookie of the Year

Thom Howland: Fernando Tatis Jr. is another precocious 20-year-old. He hit .286 with 16 HR and 22 Doubles last year in AA. The Padres are moving the newly minted $300 Million Dollar Manny Machado to third base so Tatis Jr. can play every day. Dark horse candidate – Pete Alonso

Scott Frizzell: Nick Senzel keeps getting moved around the field due to being blocked at the big league level all over the infield. His bat will play anywhere though. It looks like his new home will be center field for the Reds. Although I think Pete Alonso might slug 30 home runs for the Mets, I believe Senzel will have a more rounded game, batting around .300 with 15-20 home runs and stolen bases. Dark horse candidate – Chris Paddack

John Principe: The opposite of the AL, this race seems wide open to me. With no clear favorite, the Mets slugger Pete Alonso is my choice.  Alonso has a brilliant eye, and lots of pop in his bat and should have a chance to play first base right away for the Mets. Dark horse candidate – Nick Senzel

Ben Rolfe: Anyone with Nick Senzel’s talent who gets to play in a hitter friendly park is always going to have a great shot of success. Add in the highlight plays he seems to be capable of making in center field and this could be a fun player to watch this season. Dark horse candidate – Chris Paddack

Mike Quilty: If Alex Reyes can finally stay healthy, he has some of the most electric stuff in the entire sport.

Nick Senzel was drafted 2nd overall in 2016.

American League Manager of the Year

Thom Howland: The Angels are an afterthought in the AL playoff picture. The A’s funky stadium and Billy Beane’s witchcraft will run out, and Brad Ausmus will have the Angels in the playoffs for the first time since 2014. Dark horse candidate – Kevin Cash

Scott Frizzell: I like Thom’s pick of Brad Ausmus. Mike Scioscia had gone stale and in need of replacing, the fresh face of Ausmus will give the club an extra jolt this season. Although their pitching staff is questionable, their lineup is looking rock solid. Dark horse candidate – Rocco Baldelli

John Principe: After being named a finalist in 2018 due to his innovation and his ability to do lots with very little, Kevin Cash should take the next step and win this year. There’s always the possibility of a team exceeding expectations (i.e. 2018 Athletics) and that manager taking the award, but for now Cash seems like the safest bet. Dark horse candidate – Rocco Baldelli

Ben Rolfe: Rick Renteria could have a perfect storm of young talented players starting to reach their peak and a weak division. The White Sox could push the Indians deep this season and even not making the playoffs that would be enough to get Renteria in consideration for the award. Dark horse candidate – Rocco Baldelli

Mike Quilty: Call me a homer but I’m going with Alex Cora

Can Brad Ausmus lead the Angels to the playoffs in his first season at the helm?

National League Manager of the Year

Thom Howland: Bud Black has two top-five MVP possibilities in Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon. They have promising starters in Jon Gray, German Marquez, and Kyle Freeland. Black will help their pitching and lead them to the NL Playoffs, despite being given a slim 17.5% chance of doing so. Dark horse candidate – Dave Martinez

Scott Frizzell: Last year I said the Phillies would surprise people and hang in the race before ultimately fading. This year, they will win the NL East, and with it Gabe Kapler will take home the Manager of the Year Award. Dark horse candidate – David Bell

John Principe: David Bell has a great opportunity in front of him in his first year leading the Reds. A young lineup that has already proved itself may now have some pitching behind it to support this team. A lot of people have the Reds as the breakout team of 2019, myself included. If they can push themselves into playoff contention in that division, or even over .500, it’s going to be hard not giving this award to Bell. Dark horse candidate – Dave Martinez

Ben Rolfe: This is another case of a perfect storm. Gabe Kapler took a lot of stick for some of his decisions last season. However, now he has a young rotation and an incredibly talented lineup at his fingertips. This team could be in contention for the most wins in the NL. Dark horse candidate – Bud Black

Mike Quilty: I think Dave Roberts will get the Dodgers back to the World Series and have one of the best records. After losing one of his key players, that could be enough to net him this award.

Gabe Kapler and the Phillies are trending up.

Featured picture taken from CBS Philly

What Could a Mookie Betts Extension Look Like?

The Red Sox are most certainly going to re-open extension talks with the All-Star right fielder. What could a potential extension look like?

With free agency about the blow up the entire landscape of the MLB for the foreseeable future, could the Red Sox make an unprecedented move? If so, what could shake up things for the next decade? Extending All-Star and MVP candidate Mookie Betts! The five-tool player has shown flashes of greatness. When will Betts get paid?

His career numbers as of now indicate his game is only trending upward. He sports a career .301 batting average, with 105 home runs and 374 runs batted in. to go along with 104 stolen bases. To go along with two Gold Gloves, three straight All-Star selections, and a Silver Slugger award.

Last winter, the Sox signed J.D. Martinez to a five year $110 million contract with numerous player opt-outs after this season. While there are talks of restructuring after this season, these are the present numbers. J.D. has experienced his fair share of struggles throughout his career, making Mookie the better of the two. He will command more in any contract.  The rising star is becoming one of the top 3 players in the game.

Similar extensions

In 2015, the Los Angeles Angles extended Mike Trout to a six year, $144.5 million contract. The two-time MVP is one of the other top three players in the league. Now, there is no comparison between Trout and Martinez as an all around player, but offensively you could make some arguments. If Trout could command this money, what can other stars expect to want?

This year, the other top three player becomes the biggest free agency prize in years. Bryce Harper watch has been in effect all season long, with hopes of hints as to where he’ll wind up after free agency is all said and done. He could command anywhere to a rumored ten year $400 million deal. It would be the largest deal in sports history, but that deal could be shrinking after his sub-par .248 batting average. The Washington Nationals star has plenty of options moving forward.

Finally in 2014, the Miami Marlins extended Giancarlo Stanton to a 13 year $325 million contract, the largest contract ever. Now a member of the New York Yankees, Stanton has ten years left on his current contract, while he can opt out at anytime after 2020. The no trade clause is still in effect.

Considering all of the above contracts, what could a possible Mookie Betts extension look like? With the level of play he has flashed (especially against American League east teams) He could easily command a $200 deal. He is currently making $10.5 million this season with three more years of arbitration left.

Let’s just suggest his arbitration increases by at least $5.5 million each season. By the time he hits his first free agency, he would make $27 million for one season. If you go by his five-tool ability, it’s easy to conceive that his extension could be in the eight year, $225 million range.

If the two sides decide to go this route will have to wait. The postseason is creeping fast. While the numbers will be different, this is how the market is. While all attention shift to the end of the season, more excitement is soon to come.

Dave Dombrowski Has Killed The Farm System

With only two prospects in the top 100, Dave’s win now philosophy has killed the backup plan If we cannot resign all these players.

Yes, Dave Dombrowski has brought in some serious talent to Boston over the years, but we simply cannot resign them all. Chris Sale and Craig Kimbrel has done astonishingly well thus far, but what about the Drew Pomeranz, Carson Smith, and Tyler Thornburg? While Losing big name prospects such as: Anderson Espinoza, Travis Shaw, Manuel Margot, and Mauricio Dubon.

Not saying these trades weren’t beneficial, but with the cap room looking tight already, it is going to be a challenge to resign these guys. With guys already in line to ink up max deals. Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, and Xander Bogaerts should all command huge contracts, which will spike up the luxury tax for sure. It makes it harder for the team to compete in free agency for guys like: Bryce Harper, and Manny Machado exclusively.

The farm system now ranks 15th in all of baseball. With Jason Groome ( Tommy john) and Micheal Chavis ( 80 game suspension) as the only two guys in the top 100. Leaving scraps for developed prospects. Guys like Tanner Houck, Trey Ball, and Josh Ockimey aren’t eye popping players yet. They need to restock the farm system in some way via trade or an over abundance of draft picks in coming years.

While nobody would expect a dominant regular season from the likes of Ben Cherington and John Farrell respectfully, Alex Cora has been a great compliment to dealing Dave. While we wait and watch another trade deadline come and pass, we can only imagine what him and the front office has in store.

What will the legacy be after it’s all said and done? Maybe we will find out about Hanley Ramirez too. Until then, we let the cards fold as they be.

Follow me on twitter! @porchie16

The Craig Kimbrel Conundrum

A depleted farm system, a costly contract among the horizon, what do the Red Sox do about Craig Kimbrel?

With this being the last year before free agency, Where do the crossroads line up for Craig Kimbrel? The all star closer is in line for a huge payday potentially earning over $100 million contract. This could go down one of three ways: 1. Sign him in hopes of a team discount/ pay what he wants. 2. Trade him at the deadline to get something out of him. 3. he walks on his own. Either way, The Red Sox need to act fast.

Let’s say the team offers him a friendly 4 year/ $80 million contract as a team friendly deal. He could either gladly accept, or demand more money than fellow closer Alroldis Chapman who got his 5 year $82 million contract almost two years ago. He is a fastball dominant pitcher, meaning without that there’s not a lot of wiggle room to be above par. Sure, his knuckle curve is a great set up pitch, but you’re not throwing that three to four times an at bat.

Our second option is a pill swallower: trade one of the best closers in the league. This one would hurt, but it could address one of our biggest holes. THE FARM SYSTEM!!!!!! With only two prospect in the top 100 ( Chavis- ped suspension) ( Groome- Tommy John surgery) the farm system is depleted. Along with first round pick Tristan Casas, there’s not much going on at the moment. This could be the trade to get a package that consists of a bullpen arm and a prospect or two.  You can’t go wrong with that if there’s little to no help on an extension.

This idea also keeps money on the table for future extensions ( Betts, Sale, Benintendi< Bogaerts) While keeping the team in the witch hunt for Bryce Harper. With various other teams sure to be in on him.

The worse case scenario: He walks on his own terms with nothing gained for the Red Sox.

In this scenario, the team not only loses out on a closer, but misses out on a chance to gain something for his services. The club needs to look into every avenue before trying their luck in free agency. Anything can happen, it is a business. With that being said, they have to keep everything an open possibility. Even if it becomes a negative move from the fans perspective.

 

 

MLB Al and Nl All Star Ballot Update

In the first of three ballot updates before the big all star game, let’s see who holds the edge, and who gets snubbed after update 1.

In the National league’s first ballot update, the Atlanta Braves stood out by far. Having three players leading in the votes thus far. Here’s how the ballot is shaping up after the first ballot update.

First Base: Freddie Freeman ( 633,342 votes)                                                                                                                                Second Base: Ozzie Albies ( 398,816 votes)                                                                                                                                    Third Base: Nolan Arenado (527,863 votes)                                                                                                                                    Shortstop: Brandon Crawford ( 466,021 votes)                                                                                                                              Catcher: Buster Posey ( 281,331 votes)                                                                                                                                            Outfielder 1:  Bryce Harper (  496,189 votes)                                                                                                                                  Outfielder 2:  Nick Markakis ( 494,206 votes)                                                                                                                                 Outfielder 3: Matt Kemp ( 351,780 votes) 

 New to this year, the manager for the national league team will select the designated hitter for that team, the fans cannot vote for it.                                                                                                                                                                                 

For the american league squad, the powerful duo of Betts and Martinez are no doubters thus far.

First base: Jose Abreu ( 267,812 votes)                                                                                                                                          Second base: Jose Altuve ( 701,236 votes)                                                                                                                                    Third Base: Jose Ramirez ( 443,234 votes)                                                                                                                                    Shortstop: Manny Machado (321,887 votes)                                                                                                                                  Catcher: Gary Sanchez ( 336,280 votes)                                                                                                                                          Outfielder 1: Mookie Betts ( 748,872 votes Leads all players)                                                                                                    Outfielder 2: Mike Trout ( 639,882 votes)                                                                                                                                        Outfielder 3: Aaron Judge ( 541,993 votes)                                                                                                                                    Designated Hitter: J.D Martinez ( 513,415 votes) 

The american league race is shaping up as a lot of people thought it would. The next two ballot updates are announced on June 18 and 19! Stay tuned to how it all unfolds right here as the all star races continue to heat up.

Jackie Bradley Jr. Has To Go!!!

While his outstanding defensive plays keep us in awe, this experiment has to end at some point.

Jackie simply cannot hit the ball, need I say it again?? While after every at bat that becomes an out, we all think it. Sure his catches and amazing arm is very helpful, there’s others who can replace him. Without him, the outfield is still strong. With Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi in the corners, we could always use another fierce hitter in the lineup.

The red sox had that opportunity. Back in July, rumors came about that the team turned down a swap with outfielder Kyle Schwarber of the Chicago Cubs. That lineup would’ve been scary. This is his sixth season in the major leagues, hearing a streak of 5 for his last 50 at bats are getting old. While he had the 29 game hitting streak stun the entire league, it was also two seasons ago!!!

While looking for a replacement deems impossible, they have one on the roster already. Enter Blake Swihart. The catcher turned utility player was the hottest hitter for the Red Sox in spring training, if not one of the best in all of spring training. With growing experience, he could revitalize his career with an opening such as this one. Throughout his injury plagued career, Blake finally has his chance as an every day player.

With a highlight reel type player like Jackie there is still a great demand for a player with his skill set. Mainly national league teams would line up and pay a small fortune for his services. Also having one more option increases his value even more. Thus saving money for a free agent that also plays the outfield. ( Bryce Harper) Sorry Red Sox nation, but in order to put the best lineup game in and game out, the Red Sox need to trade Jackie Bradley jr.

Boston Sports Extra’s MLB Award Predictions

With the Major League Baseball season almost upon us (finally), our baseball writers have collaborated to make our picks for the coming season. In this article we detail who will win the major awards for 2018; Most Valuable Player, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year for both leagues. We will follow this one up with a part two article covering our picks for the division winners and the postseason.

American League Most Valuable Player

Scott Frizzell – Mike Trout is my pick for this year’s MVP winner because he is awfully hard to pick against. Trout is the best player in baseball, and his first six seasons match up pretty favorably with just about any player in the game’s history. He could be a top ten player of all-time once he hangs them up.    Dark Horse Candidate – Francisco Lindor

Matt O’Halloran – Mike Trout seems like the best pick, as he has been for the past five years. He won the award in 2014 and 2016, and has been close to winning it in the other years. The Angels missed the Wild Card by five games in 2017, and a playoff run combined with a healthy season should guarantee a third MVP for the outfielder.    Runner up – Jose Altuve

Kyle Porch – Mookie Betts will win MVP this year because he has a lot to prove. Simply put, he got robbed of the award two years ago by Mike Trout, and he needs the numbers to get the extension he wants. With a third straight gold glove award in sight, the five tool player can rip it up offensively to which we have seen the last two seasons.

Justin Gonzalez – It has always been Mike Trout’s award to lose ever since he stepped foot in the MLB. Widely renowned as baseball’s best player, Trout seems to be catapulting himself towards a first ballot hall of fame vote already at the age of 26. Last year was seen as a down year for him since he only played in 114 games but was still able to post a 1.071 OPS, 33 HR, 72 RBI, .306 batting average while swiping 22 bags. Now batting in the best lineup he has ever been in, it is time for Trout to show us what he is truly capable of and all we can do is sit back and enjoy the show.

David Latham – It’s Altuve’s world, and we’re all just living in it. I’ve been a huge fan of Altuve ever since he entered the league, and outside of Mike Trout, there’s no other player I’d rather have on my team. He’s everything you want in a baseball player: he can hit for average, power, he’s a great athlete, and he gives 110% every single play.

Brandon Fazzolari – Carlos Correa is in the middle of a lineup that tests pitchers every step of the way, setting Correa up to produce huge numbers.

National League Most Valuable Player

Scott Frizzell – Bryce Harper has more or less become the player he was supposed to become over the last three seasons. Last year, his season was derailed by injury, but he was putting up big numbers before he went down. Now entering his first contract season, expect Harper to play as well as he ever has. I think numbers similar to his 2015 campaign are within reach.  Dark Horse Candidate – Christian Yelich

Matt O’Halloran – Nolan Arenado has been consistently great during his career, but never really talked about. It could be the Colorado market or blind fans chalking up the success to Coors, but that silence changes this year. Arenado is in a contract year, which should bolster his already impressive stats. The young third baseman is an outstanding defender and great hitter (even out of Coors). The Rockies made the wild card game last year, and another postseason berth combined with impressive numbers should get him the MVP.   Runner up – Corey Seager

Kyle Porch – Nolan Arenado will win the NL MVP award simply because of a continuation from last season. The Rockies third baseman will continue on his upward trend while earning a massive payday next season.

Justin Gonzalez – It must really suck to be Harper. I mean think about it: he has luscious hair, a beard that a lumberjack would approve of, a career WAR that is one point higher than his actual age (26 over 25), and is heading into one of the biggest contract years ever. Okay, maybe that doesn’t suck, but what I was getting at is imagine a baseball world without Mike Trout. We would be talking about Harper like he was the second coming of Ken Griffey Jr. I believe that this contract year for Harper is what will put him on the map clearly as the second best baseball player in the world.

David Latham – There are very few baseball players more talented than Washington Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper. Another guy that can do it all, Harper is set to hit unrestricted free agency at the end of 2018. Look for Harper to have an absolutely crazy 2018 before breaking the bank in 2019.

Brandon Fazzolari – Bryce Harper is a versatile performer that can hit for average and power from the left side. Barring injury, this award should be his.

Photo by Patrick Smith

American League Cy Young Award

Scott Frizzell – I like to dig a little deeper on AL Cy Young oftentimes, so my pick is going to be Lance McCullers this season. McCullers just needs to stay healthy, as he has never pitched more than 22 games in a season. His first two seasons he had a 3.22 ERA, and he struck out 11.8 batters per nine in 2016. When he went down with an injury last June, McCullers had a 2.58 ERA and 10.4 k/9. He pitched well in the postseason and so far this spring he has been lights out.   Dark Horse Candidate – James Paxton

Matt O’Halloran – Justin Verlander posted a 1.06 regular season ERA after he was traded to the Astros on August 31st. The ace was a big part of their world series run and should put up impressive numbers again. He won the award in 2011, and was a runner up in 2016. He has been consistently dominant since he entered the league in 2006, and there is no reason to believe that will stop.  Runner up – Chris Sale

Kyle Porch – Chris Sale will give hitters deja vu of his 2017 season to win the award. While working out with Jason Groome over the offseason, he has built muscle and the velocity has improved while under-exerting himself during spring training.

Justin Gonzalez – The 2017 Cy Young award runner up has some unfinished business to take care of in 2018. He got his inaugural Red Sox season out of the way and is looking to take back what was clearly his in the first half of the season. Sporting the highest career SO/W (strikeout per win) figure in MLB history, Sale does two things extremely well: strikeout batters and win games. Pitching in front of a better lineup than last season, he has a chance to have a career year. Pair all of this with his longevity boosting workout regimen and he is really in line for another spectacular season.

David Latham – For the first four months of the 2017 season, this award was Sale’s to lose. Unfortunately, fatigue set in and Sale had a rough end of the season. He ended up finishing second for the award, behind Cleveland Indians ace Corey Kluber.

Brandon Fazzolari – Chris Sale is the consummate power pitcher. He shows no signs of slowing down in his prime.

National League Cy Young Award

Scott Frizzell – Sticking with my theme of underdogs for Cy Young, I am taking Noah Syndergaard to win in the NL this year. Syndergaard isn’t quite the underdog McCullers is, but anyone not named Kershaw or Scherzer in the National League seems like a bit of one. After missing most of last season, Syndergaard is healthy and strong for this season. He came out firing 100 miles per hour early in spring.  Dark Horse Candidate – Aaron Nola

Matt O’Halloran – I could have flipped a coin between Kershaw and Max Scherzer. It is a two man race barring a major injury because they are the only best pitchers in the NL and whoever is third is a distant third. I predict Kershaw just because the Dodgers should finish ahead of the Nationals in the standings. He won the award in 2011, 2013, 2014, and was a runner up in 2017.   Runner up – Max Scherzer

Kyle Porch – Clayton Kershaw will continue his dominance by winning another Cy Young award. The Dodgers pitcher could opt out and with his 4th award he can get a huge payday.

Justin Gonzalez – Want to read a preposterous sentence? Clayton Kershaw could possibly have a better career than Trout when it is all said and done. Everyone knows that he is the best pitcher in baseball (you do know that, right?) but just how good is he? Well for starters, he hasn’t had an ERA over 2.50 since 2012 (2.53) and has only had an ERA over 3.00 ONCE in TEN seasons (his rookie year). Get my point? He already has a career WAR of 60.6 and is heading into a contract season. His recent injuries would be the only thing that would stop him from winning the award for the 4th time, but then again, injuries could happen to anybody on this list. I would be absolutely floored if Kershaw didn’t run away with the award yet again.

David Latham – Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball, and it’s not even that close. Until someone dethrones him as the best, this award will always be his to lose.

Brandon Fazzolari – Joining most others, I am picking Clayton Kershaw to win this award. It’s hard to believe Kershaw is still just 30 years old because he has been so good for so long.

Clayton Kershaw during the first inning against the Colorado Rockies, Wednesday, April 19, 2017. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

American League Rookie of the Year

Scott Frizzell – Shohei Ohtani seemed to be the clear favorite for this award before his lousy spring training. I wanted to go elsewhere with this pick anyways, Ohtani was too easy. Willie Calhoun of the Rangers is starting the season in the minors, but I think he will be up by the end of April. A former fourth round pick, Calhoun batted .300 with 31 home runs in AAA last season. In a hitter’s paradise in Arlington, Calhoun should make his mark this season.   Dark Horse Candidate – Austin Hays

Kyle Porch – Willie Calhoun has great speed not only in the outfield, but on the base path as well. If he can continue his hot hitting from the minors, he should be a lock for Rookie of The Year.

Justin Gonzalez – Eloy Jimenez ranks as the number four prospect in all of baseball and seems to be overshadowed by another soon to be star, Yoan Moncada. Originally from the Cubs organization before being traded to the ChiSox in exchange for Jose Quintana, Jimenez seems to be a player that can really be a pivotal piece towards the White Sox rebuild. The 21 year old has an eye-popping OPS of 2.381 in his first Spring Training. Jimenez recently got optioned to double-A, but there should not be any reason why the White Sox wouldn’t promote him at some point during the season.

David Latham – If Rafael Devers were eligible, I’d pick him here. However, he’s not, so the award goes to Texas Rangers outfielder Willie Calhoun. Calhoun is a power bat on a popular organization that should be average at least, so why not him?

Brandon Fazzolari – There’s a lot to like about the multi-talented Ohtani, but mostly that he’s in a lineup alongside Mike Trout.

Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

National League Rookie of the Year

Scott Frizzell – It is hard to pick against Ronald Acuña at this point. He will start the season in the minor leagues, but that is only to extend his years under team control. Acuña will be up before long and he is one of the most talented prospects to come up in sometime. Acuña has some all-around ability to his game in the vein of Mike Trout. In three stops last season. Acuña batted .325, hit 21 home runs and stole 44 bases. So far this spring, he has batted .432 with 4 homers and 4 steals.   Dark Horse Candidate – A.J. Minter

Kyle Porch – Ronald Acuña has flown through the Braves minor league system. Their number 1 prospect is expected to branch out in the majors this season.

Justin Gonzalez – J.P. Crawford seems to be one of the more overlooked players to get excited about in today’s baseball world. In a league where shortstop seems to be a position abundant with raw talent, it is hard to get noticed. However, Crawford will be the everyday shortstop for a Phillies team that has suddenly become decent. The acquisition of Carlos Santana, a full season of Rhys Hoskins and a hopeful season for Maikel Franco will really help Crawford out from the get go. His patience at the plate along with his ability to hit to all fields as well as his plus defending makes him one of the early front-runners for the NL Rookie of the Year.

David Latham – The Dodgers will be good this year, and Walker Buehler should be a big part of that. He won’t be the top arm in the rotation, which honestly should help his win total. He’s got a lot of talent, making it to the majors after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2016.

Brandon Fazzolari – If spring training is any indication, Acuña should win this award in a cakewalk.

The Top Right Fielders Long-Term

Right field is a very top heavy position. Not knowing yet how the Yankees will utilize their two sluggers, they both get included in right field as that’s where they have played previously. There is also a good chance they both play right field this season, rotating between there and DH. After a group of four superstars, the position has a steep drop-off. Who helps round out the top 10 for the best right fielders to have for the long haul?

1. Bryce Harper

Harper may not have been a consistent superstar to this point, but he is still only 25 years old. Harper has also put up superstar numbers for two of the last three seasons now while healthy. With his upside, and still being only 25, it is hard to argue against him in the top spot.

One of the most hyped phenoms of all-time, Harper broke in to the Major Leagues at the age of 19. Although it took a few years for him to achieve star numbers, he was good immediately. He hit 20 homers in each of his first two seasons and won the Rookie of the Year Award in 2012. Harper truly broke out in 2015 at just 22 years old. That season he won the MVP Award after leading the league in home runs, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. He batted .330 with a .460/.649/1.109 slash line, showing the world his immense upside. Although he “slumped” to an .814 OPS the next year, Harper bounced back last season before getting injured. He again had an OPS over 1.000 while batting .319 with 29 home runs over 420 at-bats.

The biggest concern with Harper’s productivity moving forward may be health. Harper has now missed a relatively large amount of time in half of his six Major League seasons. When healthy, Harper should threaten 40 home runs with a near 1.000 OPS for years to come.

2. Giancarlo Stanton

Stanton is another superstar right fielder who has struggled with injuries. Stanton has missed significant time in four of his Major League seasons. Despite all the missed time, Stanton’s 267 career home runs place him in the top 10 for most home runs through the age of 27. That number is more than Hank Aaron, Barry Bonds, Willie Mays and Babe Ruth. Imagine how many Stanton would have if not for the injuries. Heck, the last couple years he got hurt were fluke injuries. For his career, he has averaged 44 home runs per 162 games played.

In 2015, at the time of his beaning, Stanton was on pace for a 50 home run season. Last year he achieved it for real, bashing a league high 59 home runs. Now, leaving Miami, Stanton gets to play in a hitter’s park instead of a pitcher’s park. If he stays healthy, Stanton could see a couple more 50 home run seasons in his future. Health is the key for the man who hits the ball harder than anyone I have seen.

Stanton won’t be taking aim at this ugly sculpture anymore. (Getty Images)

3. Aaron Judge

Personally, I think we just saw Aaron Judge’s career year, but after what he accomplished as a rookie, it’s hard to put him lower than three. Judge never hit all that well in the minors, posting a high of 20 home runs in 2015. He also only batted better than .280 once, back in his first season. Yet, his first year in the bigs and Judge batted .284 with a league leading 52 home runs. Strange how things work out sometimes. Judge also led the league in walks, 127, and strike outs, 208. Judge then struck out 27 times in 13 postseason games. To keep his average up, he will certainly have to cut back on his strike outs.

Diving into his numbers, 25.9% of Aaron Judge’s fly balls traveled for home runs. That is an insanely high rate, as the league average is 9.6%. I have to think that number will come down, and probably below 20%. As for his strike out rate, which was higher than 30%, that definitely will need to improve for a repeat performance. A .357 BABIP, which places him in the top 10, helped him to his .284 average despite all the strike outs.

Now, all this isn’t saying Aaron Judge is going to be a bad player. I am merely pointing out his underlying numbers which tend to show he won’t be as good moving forward. If Judge drops to a .250 batting average, with the way he walks he will still have better than a .350 on-base percentage.

4. Mookie Betts

I would not be surprised if Betts provided more value moving forward than some guys ahead of him on my list. Coming off a “down season” it is hard to justify putting him higher than 4th. He is easily the best fielder of this bunch though and he was an MVP candidate two seasons ago. Betts also has the most speed of anyone to this point, giving him arguably the most well-rounded game of the group.

Betts strikes out far less than the average player, striking out in only 11.8% of his career plate appearances. That number has been right round 11% in back to back seasons now. Assuming his BABIP normalizes, he should bounce back to closer to the player he was two years ago. That season, Betts had 214 base hits on his way to a .318 batting average. He also hit 31 home runs, 42 doubles and stole 26 bases as he finished second to Mike Trout for the American League MVP Award. He didn’t benefit from a high BABIP (.320). But last season, Betts’ BABIP dropped all the way down to .268. He still hit 24 home runs and 46 doubles though, while once again stealing 26 bases. With a return to normalcy, Betts should be around the .300 mark again this season.

As for his defense, Betts has won two straight Gold Glove Awards while posting a 5.4 dWAR. He has saved more than 30 defensive runs above average in both seasons, totaling 63 between the seasons. His 31 last year were 13 more than any other right fielder had. At 25 years old, Betts should be an all-around star for years to come.

Boston Red Sox right fielder Mookie Betts hits a double against the Seattle Mariners during the sixth inning at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

5. Domingo Santana

This is where the position drops off, though Santana is still a good player. Given a chance to start for the first time last season, Santana hit 30 home runs. Not only that, Santana exhibited the ability to draw a walk, walking 73 times. This gave Santana an excellent .371/.505/.875 slash line. The on-base percentage placed him 4th among all right fielders and the slugging percentage was 6th. Not bad for a first full season.

Santana always exhibited ability, twice hitting over 20 home runs in the minors and another time posting a .999 OPS. He was a big piece of the Astros trade to acquire Mike Fiers and Carlos Gomez in 2015 for the stretch run. Playing half a season in the bigs in 2016, Santana hit 11 home runs and posted a .792 OPS. Yes, he was much better this past season, but it’s not like the season came out of nowhere. Also, young guys are supposed to improve, right? The ability is real, if anything drops some it will be his batting average after he benefited from a .363 BABIP this past year.

6. Nicholas Castellanos

After being a third baseman his whole career, Castellanos will call right field his home this season. He played 20 games there late last year to see if he could handle it. How he performs there is yet to be determined. As for the bat, that will play in right. Castellanos made Baseball America’s top 100 list four times, twice placing in the top 25. He then spent his first full season in the majors at the age of 22. It’s not a surprise it took him a few years to start producing, but he has now had two straight excellent seasons at the dish.

Castellanos took a big step forward two years ago, batting .285 with 18 home runs and an .827 OPS. Despite a slow start last season, Castellanos hit a career high 26 home runs and led the league with 10 triples. The numbers look sustainable, as his extra base hit percentage and home run rate have held steady the last two seasons. Castellanos has also improved his strike out rate in back to back years. Turning 26 in a couple of days, Castellanos should be entering his prime.

7. Andrew McCutchen

McCutchen has the superstar name, and certainly has been one, but he is on the wrong side of 30 now. His game has shown obvious signs of decline as he no longer has the speed to steal many bases or to play center field. McCutchen looks like he will play primarily right field for the first time in his career this season as he makes the move to San Francisco.

McCutchen may not be an MVP candidate anymore, but he still has a good bat. At 31, he isn’t so ancient that we should be expecting him to continue to rapidly decline. He still should have a few good seasons left in him. He isn’t the .300 hitter he was from 2012-2014, falling short of that mark in each of the last three seasons. However, he did bat .279 with 28 home runs last season. He probably will provide more value on defense as well playing in right field. He posted negative defensive value playing center in each of the last four seasons. However, McCutchen posted positive value in a 13 game stint in right field last year.

McCutchen will call San Francisco his home after spending his first 9 seasons in Pittsburgh.

8. Jay Bruce

Bruce will join McCutchen as a 31 year old shortly after the season begins. Although the age does him no favors in my long-term articles, it’s by no means a death knell. There is no reason why he can’t continue hitting into his mid-thirties at least. He ultimately may find himself moved to first base, a position he has played a little of before.

Bruce is a fairly one-dimensional slugger. Although he isn’t allergic to walks, he doesn’t walk too often. He doesn’t hit for a high average, he doesn’t steal bases, he mostly just slugs home runs. At least he seems to be a pretty good player again. From 2010-2013, Bruce batted .262 and averaged 30 home runs per year. He then had two very poor seasons, batting .222 without posting any real value. However, he is back to being the player he was before 2014 it seems. Bruce has hit .252 the last two seasons while hitting 69 home runs. He is coming off a career high 36 home runs last season. He looks like he should be a .250 30 home run hitter for a couple more seasons.

9. Yasiel Puig

Puig is a polarizing player, both on and off the field. He looked like a future star his first two seasons, batting .305 with an .888 OPS. His arm in right field was a weapon as well as his bat. Then his play fell off the next two seasons, batting just .260 with a .748 OPS. He hit only 22 home runs combined those two years and was sent to the minors in 2016. His attitude was considered to be a problem both on and off the field.

Still just 26 last season, Puig’s play rebounded. He still hit just .263, but he clubbed a career high 28 home runs. Puig posted an .833 OPS, his best in three seasons. His play in the outfield was arguably the best of his career, putting up 18 defensive runs saved above average. Runners don’t test his arm like they used to, as Puig had just 4 assists. But he’s still holding runners, and he only made one error.

So, which Puig will we see moving forward? Can he continue to be a force on the field or will his play regress again? Puig also carries the character concerns, meaning he could affect team chemistry even when going well. Still just 27 years old, Puig has plenty of time to turn his career around.

10. Nomar Mazara

Mazara was just 20 years old when he made the majors, and he has held his own. The number 21 prospect according to Baseball America in 2016, Mazara batted .266 and hit 20 home runs. Last season, he had his peaks and valleys, showing all the streakiness one might expect from a 22 year old. When all was said and done he had hit 22 home runs, doubled 30 times and driven in 101 runners. His average dropped a bit, while his other rate stats saw incremental gains.

I believe there is more in him waiting to show the world. He was a big prospect brought to the majors at such a young age. Still just 22 at the start of the year, Mazara has plenty of development left. He’s got plenty of power in his 6’4″ 215 pound frame, and I expect his skills to become more toned and consistent. I expect Mazara to post career highs across the board this season, except maybe runs batted in.

Honorable Mentions:

Steven Souza Jr., Avisail Garcia, Mitch Haniger, Gerardo Parra, David Peralta, Stephen Piscotty, Gregory Polanco, Josh Reddick, Scott Schebler, Randal Grichuk

 

 

 

Feature picture from Federalball.com

 

Why Logan Morrison is the Better Option

The free agent first baseman isn’t the only power hitter waiting on a lucrative contract. But as he’s shown us before he can work on a small contract.

While Red Sox nation is still waiting on Dave Dombrowski to sign J.D. Martinez, there are other options available. One option that shouldn’t be overlooked is Logan Morrison. Last season with the Rays, he hit .246 with 38 homers and 85 RBIs. 

Even though the Red Sox have first base depth with Moreland, Travis, and Hanley, they need a power hitting righty to supplement Ramirez. He only needs 497 plate appearances for his $22 million vesting option for 2019. If healthy, that should be easily obtainable. Even though there’s a good chance the team could resign on a cheaper deal due to his lack of production and age.

Morrison would help provide in the home run department, as well as a leader the team has lacked. While veterans Dustin Pedroia and David Price didn’t step up as expected, both are committed for the long haul and willing to take charge. Morrison can also provide an above average glove at the position.

Last season, he had eight errors with a .993 fielding percentage with 1077.2 innings manning first base. Giving Moreland and Ramirez some well needed days off down the stretch. Which could be a key factor come playoff time due to the duration of the season. Time and time again depth has proven vital towards success of teams.

With the lackluster free agency movement this year, It wouldn’t take much to ink him on a one or two year deal. He is willing to DH (unlike Martinez) and wouldn’t command top dollar. This would help in the recruitment of Bryce Harper, Manny Machado sweepstakes next offseason. Boston can be rest assured a playoff contending team, without the Scott Boras haste until next year.

 

Cover image courtesy of MLB- NBC Sports.