Tag Archives: Cody Allen

2019 Red Sox Free Agency: Get Cody Allen

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The Red Sox bullpen is in flux for 2019.  Craig Kimbrel is out there asking for a 6-year deal, which the Red Sox will never give him.  Joe Kelly is also a free agent, and his performance doesn’t exactly inspire.  Because an already bloated Red Sox payroll, it’s looking like a budget bullpen piece is the answer.  The place to go is Cody Allen.

Cody Allen Performance

Between the years of 2014 and 2017, Cody Allen was one of the best closers in the game.  He averaged 32 saves a year as the anchor of a star-studded bullpen that included Andrew Miller.  The Cleveland Indians rode that bullpen to a lot of postseason success, including a run to the 2016 World Series.

In the regular season, he averaged an ERA under 3 during that time, but he stepped it up in the Postseason.  His career Postseason ERA was 0.47 in 19 innings.  That’s positively vintage Mariano Rivera territory.

But then 2018 happened.  He had a 4.70 ERA, lost his closer position, and got blown up in the Postseason.  So what gives?

The information may be behind a paywall, but pitch usage points to a few things – specifically his curveball.  The curve got less swing and misses in 2018, and he had some trouble throwing it for strikes.  Furthermore, he lost a MPH on his fastball, which dipped below 94 MPH.  The fastball/curve mix is what made him so deadly.

Maybe being in a free agent year got to him.  Maybe he was simply tired and in this era of quick hooks and little patience he crumbled.  But he wouldn’t be available if he had remained elite last year.

Contract Possibilities

A quick google search of Cody Allen shows a distinct lack of contract demands.  There are not even stories out there like this one, saying Joe Kelly is being looked at by multiple teams as a closer.  Because of this, it appears clear that Allen would come cheap.  Maybe even on a one year deal.  Now that’s more like it.

Cody Allen isn’t necessarily a sure thing, but he looks pretty good from here.  He’s one year removed from being untouchable in the Postseason for many years.  He’s only 30 years old, he’s cheap, and he would be an excellent gamble to pair with the remaining relievers on the staff, such as Ryan Brasier and Matt Barnes, in the late innings.

Furthermore, he is right-handed.  This is essential.  The Red Sox biggest competition, the Astros and Yankees, have a plethora of right-handed, middle of the order bats in their lineups.  To me, that excludes left-handed possibilities for essential bullpen roles like Andrew Miller and Zach Britton.  Kelvin Herrera is also cheap, right-handed, and recently successful, but arm troubles on top of foot troubles make him too risky.

That leaves Cody Allen.  Sign him.

 

 

The 2019 Red Sox Bullpen: The Craig Kimbrel Question

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There are changes coming to the 2019 Red Sox Bullpen.  Yesterday I took a look at Joe Kelly.  The biggest piece, closer Craig Kimbrel, is today’s focus..  Is he worth paying to keep and what are some options out there?

Craig Kimbrel

In 2017 Craig Kimbrel was the 800 lb gorilla of all time Red Sox closers.  5-0 with 35 saves and a 1.43 ERA.  If he had been given more opportunity I’m sure he would’ve had even more saves.

Using a 3 year average is an attempt to have some perspective, but in Kimbrel’s case the 2017 season has a massive effect.  Because Kimbrel’s three year stats are, frankly, amazing: 14.8 K/9 and a 2.52 ERA.

Even then though, the walks show through: 3.8 per 9 innings.  That’s a lot of base runners.  When he’s on his game and striking out the world, it works.  When he’s not, let’s just say Alex Cora going with Chris Sale to close out game five says a ton.  And Kimbrel giving up a two run home run to Kiki Hernandez of all people in game four brought back all those non save situation failures from prior years.

All of this is to say Kimbrel’s not a guarantee to bring back as the 2019 Red Sox closer.  But who is out there who could be a good fit?  Closers who have working in the American League and have postseason experience.

Kelvin Herrera

Kelvin Herrera will undoubtedly be the least expensive option.  He suffered a torn Lisranc ligament in his left foot and had surgery for it on 8/30/2018.  The recovery for that encompasses around six months and requires vigilance.  That means he’ll be available a few weeks into spring training if all goes well.

There’s a lot to like about Herrera.  He is the youngest of this group at 29 on Opening Day 2019.  He also he walks the fewest batters.  His 3 year average is 2.17 walks per 9 is the lowest of all the comparisons I’ve found in the top tier group.  It is that low walk number than allows him to rival Kimbrel in the walk per strikeout stat.  Herrera is 4.6 BB/K, Kimbrel is 4.97 BB/K.

His three year ERA is 3.15 and the Red Sox tried to trade for him at the trade deadline this year.  His injuries were bad luck.  This year was his first extended time on the DL.

Because of his injury there are questions about Herrera, but that will also make him less expensive.  He very well could big the biggest relief Ace bargain of 2019.

Cody Allen

This former Cleveland Indians closer fell out of favor due to an off year in 2018.  While Kimbrel will be 31, Cody Allen will be 30 on opening day 2019.

Even with a bad 2018 he can stand next to Kimbrel at 3.8 BB/9 (Kimbrel is at 3.8) and he’s tantalizing because he will be cheaper than Kimbrel and has had a lot of success.  In 2016 and 2017 he averaged a 2.73 ERA and 31 saves a year with almost 12 K/9.  That is dominant.

Because of 4.70 ERA in 2018 and corresponding difficulties he’s a question.  But a worthy gamble due to the potential of prior years and no obvious injury.

Conclusion

Ultimately I believe Kimbrel will come back if he’s asking for a reasonable salary.  But if he’s pushing $20 Million like Mark Melancon I see a few appealing options out there that have pitched in the American League, in the playoffs, and are at reasonable age.

The Red Sox Bullpen Feels Shaky. Does it Matter?

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Baseball’s waiver trade deadline passed yesterday, without so much as a peep from the top team in the majors. Dave Dombrowski and the Red Sox chose to roll with the guys in the clubhouse, despite two other AL rivals (New York and Cleveland) making moves to bring in former MVPs and despite calls across their fan base to improve the bullpen.

Those desperate cries have rang out all season long. As it turns out, fans aren’t feeling too comfortable at the thought of Matt Barnes, Joe Kelly, or Heath Hembree entering the 8th inning of a Game 7. Dombrowski’s reputation of building star-studded teams without reliable relievers doesn’t help matters either.

But just how shaky is Boston’s ‘pen? Is having a group of dominant relievers really so important in October? Let’s do a bit of digging to find out.

Red Sox Bullpen: Actually Good?

Photo Credit: AP Photo / Charles Krupa

For starters, the idea that the Red Sox bullpen has struggled this season is more perception than reality. There may not be a ton of big names and former closers like there are with the Yankees and Indians. That being said- the Sox’s relievers have generally been up to the task.

Boston currently ranks 6th in the majors in reliever ERA this season (4th in the AL). The five teams ahead of them also happen to be teams currently slated for a playoff spot. The aforementioned Indians, despite trading for the Padres’ Brad Hand earlier this summer and having Cody Allen and Andrew Miller in the mix, rank 26th in the league in bullpen ERA.

The Sox also rate favorably in FIP (5th in the majors, 3rd amongst playoff teams). Their bullpen’s 4.5 fWAR ranks 7th in baseball, even though their relievers have thrown only 461 innings this season (19th most). In other words, Boston’s ‘pen has provided enough value to rank in the top 25% of teams, despite appearing in fewer innings than every team ahead of them for the exception of Houston.

Of course, that doesn’t mean they’ve been perfect. Far from it in fact. Two troubling peripherals: the Red Sox rank 18th in reliever BB/9 (3.65) and 4th in strand rate (78.4%). Giving up free passes in high-leverage situations is playing with fire, especially in October. A high strand rate means that Boston has done well at putting out those fires. But, that luck can turn in a hurry.

Bullpen Matters

CINCINNATI, OH – AUGUST 12: Joe Kelly #56 of the Boston Red Sox pitches in the third inning of the game against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on August 12, 2014 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)

All of this is to say that the Red Sox bullpen has been overall perfectly acceptable, if not dominant. The good news? Having a great regular season bullpen isn’t necessarily a predictor for postseason success, especially if you excel in other areas like Boston does.

The defending World Series champion Astros ranked 17th in baseball with a 4.27 bullpen ERA last year, yet still won 101 games. That was thanks in large part to their league-leading offense and strong starting pitching. The team they beat for the title last year, the Dodgers, ranked 4th in bullpen ERA. Both finished behind the Red Sox, whose 3.15 reliever ERA was good for 2nd best in baseball.

Here’s where the other previous six pennant winners ranked in bullpen ERA:

2016: Cubs 8th, Indians 4th

2015: Royals 2nd, Mets 11th

2014: Giants 5th, Royals 10th

Of the last eight World Series participants, four finished in the top five. Only last year’s Astros finished outside of the top half of the league. The Royals, who started this craze with their three-headed monster of Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera, and Greg Holland, finished 2nd in 2015. Their bullpen effectively functioned as the team’s greatest asset, compensating for a weak rotation and unconventional lineup. It was essentially the inverse of what the ’17 Astros lineup did for their relievers.

It’s perfectly fair to critique Dombrowski for not finding a better option at either trade deadline. It certainly would have been nice to supplement Craig Kimbrel at the end of games. Ultimately, it might not matter if the Red Sox bullpen is merely above average instead of dominant. Having a killer set of relievers helps come playoff time. However, it’s not necessarily more important than timely hitting, strong starting pitching, and major contributions from stars.

Thus far, it appears Red Sox management is betting on that being the case.

The Top Relievers in Baseball

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In today’s game, relief pitchers are used so often. Starters are often relied upon to only go five to six innings, then turn it over to the pen to close things out for several innings. There are more relievers in the game, and more guys who throw in the upper 90’s. Nowadays, there are so many guys who can dominate for an inning, and oftentimes there are random guys who have one outstanding season. This can make it difficult to determine who is real and who is a pretender. In this article, I factor in age when determining my top 10.

Craig Kimbrel

Kimbrel is one of the most dominant stoppers the game has ever seen. From when he broke in during the 2010 season, through 2014, Kimbrel had a ridiculous 1.43 ERA while saving 186 games. During this time he struck out 14.8 batters per nine innings pitched and had a WHIP of 0.90. You really can’t be any better than he was. He did tail off for two seasons after leaving Atlanta, though he did save 70 games with a sub 3.00 ERA.

Last season, Kimbrel was back to his dominant self, pitching to a 1.43 ERA, the same ERA he had during his first five seasons. Kimbrel had a crazy low 0.68 WHIP and a filthy 16.4 strike outs per nine innings. In fact, if Kimbrel had struck out just one batter that managed to put the ball in play, he would have struck out exactly half of the batters he faced on the season. Still just 29 years old, Kimbrel should have plenty of run left as a dominant closer.

Kenley Jansen

Kimbrel and Jansen are clearly the top two relievers in baseball in my mind. It was them one-two, and then figuring out the rest. Jansen is remarkable in that he was a catcher in the minor leagues before becoming one of the most dominant relievers in the game. In parts of eight seasons, Jansen has posted an ERA below 2.00 in half of them. One of the top strike out artists in baseball, Jansen has struck out 14 batters per nine innings pitched during his career.

Jansen had arguably his best season last year, leading the league with 41 saves to go with his 5-0 record. He had the lowest ERA (1.32) and the lowest WHIP (0.75) of anyone with 11 or more innings pitched in the National League. Jansen has saved 230 games during his career. His ERA is 2.08 and he has a career 0.87 WHIP. Every number is among the league leaders during the time period.

Photo by John McCoy/So Cal News Group

Roberto Osuna

This might be a name that doesn’t come straight to mind for most. Osuna has not been around long, and pitches for a mediocre team north of the border. As such, Osuna doesn’t get the publicity others do. Make no mistake, Osuna is one of the best relief pitchers in baseball. Turning just 23 in less than a week, Osuna should be around much longer than guys behind him on this list.

As a closer, one thing you don’t want to do is allow baserunners. Osuna has a WHIP below 1.00 in all three seasons of his career, so he does a great job of limiting them. This past season, even though his ERA was a career high 3.38, Osuna allowed the fewest baserunners of his career at 0.86 per inning. He also allowed a career low three home runs, leading me to believe his still solid ERA was flukily high. With a little more luck, his ERA should dip back closer to 2.50 this coming season. Osuna has saved 95 games in his first three seasons, and at such a young age there is room for improvement.

Andrew Miller

If this list was just for 2018, Miller would be at least one spot higher. Easily the most dominant left-handed reliever in the game, Miller dominates both left-handed and right-handed hitters alike.

Over the last four years, Miller has been arguably more dominant than anyone. He is 22-11 over that span with a 1.72 ERA, 0.79 WHIP and 14.5 strike outs per nine innings. He can go for more than one innings, which he illustrated during the postseason over the past couple years. In postseason play, Miller has a 1.10 ERA over 32.2 innings pitched. He seems to dominate no matter the circumstance. Miller will be turning 33 in May, giving him a full decade on Roberto Osuna, causing me to place Osuna in the third spot. I will not argue the fact that at the moment, Miller is the better pitcher.

Matt Slocum/Associated Press

Dellin Betances

I was shocked when I looked up Betances and learned he would be 30 years old before the season starts. He has only been around for four years, so it seems like he should be much younger. He also has been less dominant the last two seasons than he was in his first two. However, Betances can still dominate and has great stuff, so he cracks my top five. After pitching to a 1.45 ERA in his first two seasons, Betances’ ERA in the last two is 2.98. His WHIP has also risen every season, going from 0.78 in 2014 to 1.22 last season. There are some warning signs, but this is still a guy who has struck out over 15 batters per nine in each of the last two years. Last year, only Craig Kimbrel had a better strike out rate in the AL.

Ken Giles

Ken Giles struggled this past postseason, but that should not be all you think about when it comes to him. At 27, Giles has been in the majors for four years. Giles has a 2.43 career ERA and 12.4 strike outs per nine. After dominating for two seasons in Philadelphia, Giles encountered his first struggles in 2016 with the Astros. Despite the struggles, he did strike out a career high 14 batters per nine. Reaffirming himself as one of the better relievers in baseball, Giles posted a 2.30 ERA for the Astros last year with a 1.04 WHIP. He bolstered the back end of the Houston bullpen as they made their race towards the playoffs. Giles should be a good closer for years to come.

Aroldis Chapman

One could definitely argue that Chapman should be higher on the list. After all, I do have Chapman approaching top 10 all-time status for relief pitchers. However, Chapman showed signs of cracking last season and will be 30 before the month is out. Not that 30 is old, but he has eight Major League seasons of throwing a ball 100 miles per hour. All the stress of throwing that hard could catch up to him. Late last year, his control was all over the place and he exhibited very poor body language on the mound at times. I also wonder then how he will handle the pressures of New York.

All that said, Chapman still posted good numbers, just far from the great ones we were used to from him. His ERA was its highest since 2011, as was his WHIP. Chapman also posted the lowest strike outs per nine of his career. For his career though, Chapman has struck out nearly 15 batters per nine innings while allowing one baserunner per inning. He has surpassed 200 career saves with a 2.21 ERA.

Cody Allen

A man who can keep Andrew Miller from being a closer must be a pretty good pitcher, and Cody Allen is that man. He isn’t better than Miller, but Miller is more valuable in a role where he can be plugged in at opportune times, and Allen is plenty good enough to hold down the fort when his time comes. In five full seasons, Allen has had an ERA below 3.00 in all of them. He has saved 122 games while pitching to a 2.67 ERA. Whether it’s gone noticed or not, Allen has been even better in the playoffs. Over 19.1 postseason innings, Allen has allowed 1 earned run while striking out 33 batters.

Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

Corey Knebel

Based just upon last year, Knebel should maybe be several spots higher on this list. I’d like to see him do it for another year though, as he kind of came out of nowhere last year to be one of the very best closers in the game. Knebel was a first round pick, so there is reason to think he can possibly continue his dominance. However, before last year Knebel had a career ERA north of 4.00 along with a relatively high WHIP. He had struck out a good amount of batters, but not near the rate at which he did this past year.

Last season, Knebel saved 39 games for the Brewers while striking out just a tick under 15 batters per nine innings. Knebel’s ERA hovered around 1.00 for half the season before one poor game. He then didn’t allow a run in 21 of his next 22 appearances to get his ERA back in the low 1.00’s. He faded a little in the last week or two of the season, possibly tiring out as he pitched more than ever before. Knebel finished the season with a 1.78 ERA

Zach Britton

Heading into last year, Britton would have likely been in the top three of this list. After an injury plagued season, and one much worse than we have been accustomed to, Britton has some rebounding to do. Problem is, he is injured again and expected to miss half this season. He is also 30 years old now. All of that has him dropped, but I felt he still needed to be included based upon how dominant he has proven to be when healthy. Britton was a legitimate Cy Young candidate in 2016, allowing just four earned runs over 67 innings pitched. He led the league with 47 saves that year along with his 0.54 ERA.

Over the three seasons prior to last year, Britton had a 1.38 ERA and 0.91 WHIP while saving 120 games. He was probably the best closer in the game during that three year stretch. Last year his WHIP skyrocketed to an unhealthy 1.53, though he still managed a 2.89 ERA due to his ground ball tendencies. Even if Britton comes back and shows some rust this season after missing half the year, I expect him to ultimately return to being a dominant closer again for a few years.

Honorable Mentions:

Edwin Diaz, Raisel Iglesias, Brad Hand, Wade Davis, Greg Holland