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The Red Sox Bullpen Feels Shaky. Does it Matter?

Baseball’s waiver trade deadline passed yesterday, without so much as a peep from the top team in the majors. Dave Dombrowski and the Red Sox chose to roll with the guys in the clubhouse, despite two other AL rivals (New York and Cleveland) making moves to bring in former MVPs and despite calls across their fan base to improve the bullpen.

Those desperate cries have rang out all season long. As it turns out, fans aren’t feeling too comfortable at the thought of Matt Barnes, Joe Kelly, or Heath Hembree entering the 8th inning of a Game 7. Dombrowski’s reputation of building star-studded teams without reliable relievers doesn’t help matters either.

But just how shaky is Boston’s ‘pen? Is having a group of dominant relievers really so important in October? Let’s do a bit of digging to find out.

Red Sox Bullpen: Actually Good?

Photo Credit: AP Photo / Charles Krupa

For starters, the idea that the Red Sox bullpen has struggled this season is more perception than reality. There may not be a ton of big names and former closers like there are with the Yankees and Indians. That being said- the Sox’s relievers have generally been up to the task.

Boston currently ranks 6th in the majors in reliever ERA this season (4th in the AL). The five teams ahead of them also happen to be teams currently slated for a playoff spot. The aforementioned Indians, despite trading for the Padres’ Brad Hand earlier this summer and having Cody Allen and Andrew Miller in the mix, rank 26th in the league in bullpen ERA.

The Sox also rate favorably in FIP (5th in the majors, 3rd amongst playoff teams). Their bullpen’s 4.5 fWAR ranks 7th in baseball, even though their relievers have thrown only 461 innings this season (19th most). In other words, Boston’s ‘pen has provided enough value to rank in the top 25% of teams, despite appearing in fewer innings than every team ahead of them for the exception of Houston.

Of course, that doesn’t mean they’ve been perfect. Far from it in fact. Two troubling peripherals: the Red Sox rank 18th in reliever BB/9 (3.65) and 4th in strand rate (78.4%). Giving up free passes in high-leverage situations is playing with fire, especially in October. A high strand rate means that Boston has done well at putting out those fires. But, that luck can turn in a hurry.

Bullpen Matters

CINCINNATI, OH – AUGUST 12: Joe Kelly #56 of the Boston Red Sox pitches in the third inning of the game against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on August 12, 2014 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)

All of this is to say that the Red Sox bullpen has been overall perfectly acceptable, if not dominant. The good news? Having a great regular season bullpen isn’t necessarily a predictor for postseason success, especially if you excel in other areas like Boston does.

The defending World Series champion Astros ranked 17th in baseball with a 4.27 bullpen ERA last year, yet still won 101 games. That was thanks in large part to their league-leading offense and strong starting pitching. The team they beat for the title last year, the Dodgers, ranked 4th in bullpen ERA. Both finished behind the Red Sox, whose 3.15 reliever ERA was good for 2nd best in baseball.

Here’s where the other previous six pennant winners ranked in bullpen ERA:

2016: Cubs 8th, Indians 4th

2015: Royals 2nd, Mets 11th

2014: Giants 5th, Royals 10th

Of the last eight World Series participants, four finished in the top five. Only last year’s Astros finished outside of the top half of the league. The Royals, who started this craze with their three-headed monster of Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera, and Greg Holland, finished 2nd in 2015. Their bullpen effectively functioned as the team’s greatest asset, compensating for a weak rotation and unconventional lineup. It was essentially the inverse of what the ’17 Astros lineup did for their relievers.

It’s perfectly fair to critique Dombrowski for not finding a better option at either trade deadline. It certainly would have been nice to supplement Craig Kimbrel at the end of games. Ultimately, it might not matter if the Red Sox bullpen is merely above average instead of dominant. Having a killer set of relievers helps come playoff time. However, it’s not necessarily more important than timely hitting, strong starting pitching, and major contributions from stars.

Thus far, it appears Red Sox management is betting on that being the case.

Catching Up with Former Red Sox’s Reggie Jefferson

The other day I had the privilege of speaking with former Red Sox player Reggie Jefferson. Reggie played parts of nine seasons in the big leagues, the final five of which were spent with the Red Sox. He batted .300 for his career, a rare accomplishment in the grand scheme of baseball history. I spoke with him about his playing days, the way the game has changed and what he is doing nowadays.

The Early Years

Reggie’s career began in Cincinnati before quickly moving cross state to the Cleveland Indians. In Cleveland he wore number 44 in honor of Hank Aaron.  Eventually, he would settle on number 18 for most of his career to honor a friend back home who had become like a big brother to him.

Reggie was traded from Cleveland after the 1993 season in a deal that would net the Indians Omar Vizquel, a man I think should be making the Hall of Fame in the coming years. Reggie said when he runs into Cleveland fans he tells them they should love him because he helped bring the club Omar Vizquel. Vizquel, one of the all-time greats defensively at short, blossomed as a hitter for the Indians. Meanwhile, Reggie viewed this as a chance for more playing time. The move also reunited him with Manager Lou Piniella, who he had been with in Cincinnati. As he pointed out, Seattle had Alex Rodriguez coming up through the minors and viewed Vizquel as being expendable. But Piniella must have liked what he had seen from his one-time rookie.

Hitting Stride

Jefferson’s breakout started that season in Seattle. He batted .327 with an excellent .935 OPS before the strike hit. He credits Lou Piniella a lot for his newfound success at the plate. Piniella helped him make changes at the plate; adjust his hands to help put him in a better position to get hits.

That season Reggie abandoned switch hitting. He had switch hit through the minors with good success, hitting for similar averages from both sides of the plate but with more power from his natural left side. However, in the Bigs there were always good right-handed options on the bench. With limited at-bats from the right side, Reggie had a hard time finding a groove. Without finding a rhythm from that side of the plate, his swing became long and he felt like he gave away at-bats. Despite the advice from Eddie Murray to not give up switch-hitting, Reggie would not get the reps needed from the right side to succeed so he made the decision. He says “I think if given the chance to play every day, I think I could have hit.”

Boston

In 1995, Reggie’s agents let him know that the Red Sox signaled the most interest. Reggie was thinking, “What are they doing? They have Mo (Vaughn) and Jose (Canseco)”! The Red Sox didn’t seem to have a spot for another first baseman and designated hitter such as Jefferson. When asked if he felt like he just needed an opportunity to play and prove himself, Reggie said “definitely, that’s it. I tell clients, first need an opportunity, then need to take advantage of it.” When the opportunities came, Reggie didn’t miss them.

Manager Kevin Kennedy was happy to greet the newest arrival in camp, Reggie Jefferson. (Photo by Barry Chin/The Boston Globe via Getty Images)

In 1996, Jefferson had his finest season. He got to play for the injured Jose Canseco for a while, then after Jose came back the Red Sox left fielder Mike Greenwell went down. Since Reggie had been hitting so well, Manager Kevin Kennedy wanted to find a way to keep his bat in the lineup. Kennedy went to Jefferson and asked him if he’d ever played left before. Reggie lied. He told Kennedy he had, despite never before playing there. It worked out great for both parties, the Red Sox came storming back with a strong second half and Reggie finished with a .347 batting average, the fifth-highest mark in all of baseball. When asked about that season in particular, Reggie said he just felt good all year. He swung the bat great, felt comfortable at the plate and hit the ball hard.

Starting with that season, Jefferson became a fixture in the Red Sox lineup for several seasons against right handers. He’d bat over .300 in three consecutive seasons and batted .316 as a Red Sox. He was a career .345 hitter at Fenway Park with a .928 OPS. He says Fenway “just played into [his] natural strengths. The Monster rewards hitters for going the other way and there’s lots of room in right.” This fit Reggie perfectly as he just hit the ball wherever it came in over the plate, using the entire field.

Friendly Fenway

Another aspect of Fenway Park we discussed is the atmosphere. According to Reggie, the Sox have the greatest fans in the world, not only in the support shown at the park, but in the way we follow the game. Fans in Boston have a knowledge of what’s happening with the team on a day-to-day basis. He found himself cheering hard for the Sox in 2004 when they finally won the World Series. Reggie identifies more with the Red Sox than any other team because of the fans. He says there were always high expectations playing in Boston, but that he performed well. Although a bad back that first cropped up in 1990 slowed him down in 1995 and 1998, he “didn’t leave anything on the table.” He always gave it his all and performed at a high level.

I asked Reggie which game, if any, stood out in his memory. He instantly brought up a game played on Father’s Day in 1996. As he said, the Red Sox had been winning but then gave up the lead. After Mo Vaughn and Jose Canseco picked up their fourth hits of the game to begin the 9th inning, Reggie came to the plate. The Sox were trailing by two, two men on, no one out. Facing Mike Henneman, Reggie hit a line drive to the opposite field up over the Monster and into the screen. A walk-off home run in Fenway Park, and on Father’s Day to boot. Reggie was thinking of his Dad and how he had gotten him started in the game of baseball.

Reggie also brought up playing with greats like Pedro Martinez, Roger Clemens and Mo Vaughn. He referenced Pedro’s 17 strike out, one-hit gem at Yankee Stadium. Reggie left the park that night thinking “that’s the best game I’ve ever seen pitched.” He thinks it’s pretty cool nowadays when guys like Tim Kurkjian bring up that game as possibly being the greatest pitching performance ever.

Modern Baseball

We talked some about recent rule changes to the game of baseball and whether they improve the game.  He does believe the rules protecting players from injury top the list.  No need exists for someone to get injured on a take-out slide at second or a catcher run over at the plate. Eliminating those plays and keeping players on the field are for the best. However, he does not like the rules trying to speed up the game; “Baseball is a slow game, I don’t think going to change that much. It’s going to take 2.5-3.5 hours to play.”

As for all the home runs hit this year, we had a discussion about that. Reggie believes there is something up with the balls. Going to games at Tropicana Field, which has been known as a pitcher’s park in the past, he sees balls flying out this year. He says “some balls are getting way out that back in the day wouldn’t even get out [at all]. I see balls there I’m like, how did that get out?!” I’ve been thinking the same thing, Reggie. Balls are just flying out with too much ease. It’s not normal. He says some of it is bad pitching, guys missing their spots, but the balls must be different.

Reggie thinks plays like this, where he is about to run over Joe Girardi trying to score, are not necessary in the game.

Reynolds Sports Agency

We finished up talking about what he is up to nowadays. Reggie works for Reynolds Sports Agency, representing clients in professional baseball. It’s a more tightly knit group than some other agencies, and despite being all under one umbrella, he says you definitely get to forge relationships.

Reggie is excited for the future; they represent a left-handed reliever in Atlanta, Sam Freeman, enjoying a breakout year. Reggie says he has learned to harness his stuff and is having a terrific season. He brought up Keon Broxton and Mallex Smith as two young players on the verge of becoming household names. Reggie has known both of them since the 11th grade, illustrating the point about forging relationships. Another young guy he mentioned was Andrew Toles, who has been out almost the whole season with a torn ACL. Reggie says he’s a great hitter and will show that in the future.

The agencies biggest star is Justin Upton, who still has four years and $88.5M left on a six-year contract. However, rumors claim  he might choose to opt out of the contract, as is his right after the season. Despite the rumors, Reggie denies talks about it, let alone making a decision. Justin is focusing on trying to get the Angels into the playoffs. If he does opt out, he’s having a huge year at the right time, bashing 35 homers.

Final Thoughts

I asked Reggie if his playing days help him out in his career as a sports agent. Reggie said, “Without a doubt. I know what they’re going through, I can be in their mindset.” He tells them one day they are going to get their shot, and they have got to run with it. He says at times during his own career he felt the need to talk to someone who had been there. Now, he can give that needed counsel to his clients. The job is a lot of work, keeping his plate full and requiring him to travel a lot. Reggie enjoys it though, he gets to help guys out who are just getting started in their professional careers.

Panic At the Citgo

2016/ 2017 parallel collapse?

In 2016 the Red Sox were one of the best teams in baseball down the stretch. From August 31st- September 25th, they put together an impressive stretch of winning going 19-5. Amidst this stretch was an 11-game win streak in which all the wins came against division rivals. However, the Sox fell off at the absolute worst time possible. They barely stumbled through the finish line, losing five of their last six, and had a hot date in the ALDS vs the Indians who won 10 of their last 15 games. The Sox were promptly swept by the Indians in three ugly games.

Image result for red sox 2016 alds

 

Well, here we are again. The Sox put together a terrific end to the season, going 18-9 from August 28th- September 24th. Unfortunately, the Red Sox have seem to lost all momentum in the first two games of the Blue Jays series. Boston has dropped back to back games 6-4 and 9-4. “…So what? they lost two games, what is the big deal?”  Typically a short two-game skid is nothing to sweat over, but these two losses have been particularly concerning. Boston has been outscored by last- place Toronto 15-8 despite throwing their best pitching options (Sale and Pomeranz). Sale surrendered five earned runs, eight hits and four home runs in just five innings of work. Pomeranz was no better as he lasted just two innings while giving up five earned runs and seven hits. Certainly not what #RedSoxNation wants to see from their aces heading into the playoffs. It feels as though one can sense the fear lingering in Boston as fans are afraid this may be the beginning of a collapse similar to last year.

Panic Time?

No. It is too early to panic. It would be panic time if we were battling for a wildcard spot and our playoff hopes were in jeopardy. Fortunately, we still hold a three- game lead over the Yankees in the AL East. While it is possible that New York catches us, it is very unlikely. Three games is an enormous amount of ground to cover with just five games remaining on the season. Also, the Sox have responded very well to slumps this year.

Thinking back on the season, two significant slumps come to mind. The first was a stretch lasting from July 5th-July 30th in which Boston lost 14 of 22 games. They bounced back from this rough stretch in a dramatic way, winning 16 of their next 20 games. Then, In late August, Boston lost four straight, one game against Cleveland and a three-game sweep delivered by Baltimore. During this four game skid, the Red Sox were outscored 36-10. This was a tremendously concerning time. Yet again, the team responded positively to the situation, winning 18 of the next 25 games. *This hot stretch actually brought them to the start of the current series vs the Blue Jays* So yes, it has been a very ugly two games for Boston, but lets not overreact. This team has bounced back from slumps multiple times this season, and we can certainly do it again. As I close out this article, Bogaerts just hit a three-run home run to blow the game wide open. Big sigh of relief for Red Sox Nation. Prepare yourself, October.  Here come the Sox.

 

Image result for Xander bogaerts home run vs blue jays

*Follow me on twitter @MLBfromNH (Kevin Civiello)* *Stats up to date as of 9/27/17*P

Red Sox vs. Indians–New Rivalry?

When you think of Red Sox rivalries throughout the years, the only ones that really come to mind are the Yankees or any other AL East team for that matter. But there is a new team that the Red Sox always seem to go to war with, and that team is the Cleveland Indians.

It kickstarted in 2016, when Cleveland and the Red Sox met in the ALDS. Talk centered on the Sox because of David Ortiz’s final postseason, but not a ton around the Indians. The Indians definitely deserved more buzz,  with a better record in the regular season than the Red Sox did.

Well, the Indians certainly did not disappoint, as they shocked the Red Sox along with baseball, sweeping them in three games.  A sour ending to Ortiz’s career, and a disappointing one to say the least. Cleveland, as we all know, ended up losing the World Series in seven games to the Cubs.

Postseason Preview?

Enter 2017, where both teams have big expectations, especially considering the Sox added Sale, and the Indians added Encarnacion. So far, the Red Sox have had some crazy games against the Indians in 2017, and crazy is an understatement.

August 1st, Chris Sale scheduled to take the hill for the Red Sox against the Indians, everyone expecting another dominant start. The Indians had a different idea, tattooing him for seven ER in a very disappointing start. The Red Sox battled back, including a disappointing appearance from the Indians big bullpen guy, Andrew Miller.  But the big guy gave up a game-tying double off the monster to Eduardo Nunez.

The Crazy

Enter the 8th inning, the Red Sox holding onto a two-run lead. Newly acquired Addison Reed took the hill for the Sox, and gave up a home run to Carlos Santana to make it a one-run game. In the 9th, shut-down closer Craig Kimbrel came in looking to secure the save. First batter for the Tribe, Francisco Lindor, hits a game tying home run over the Monster, shocking the Fenway faithful. Kimbrel continued to struggle, allowing the go-ahead run. The bottom of the 9th came, and the Indians brought in their all-star closer, Cody Allen.

Heroics

Mitch Moreland comes up with a runner on first and two outs. He swings at strike three, but the ball skips away allowing him to run to first. After a wild pitch, runners crouch on 2nd and 3rd for the young catcher Christian Vasquez, who blasts a 3-1 fastball deep into the night, dead center. Fenway went crazy, and for good reason.

This is just one example of the great games these two teams have played this season. The Indians great success against Chris Sale and the Red Sox ability to play great against the Indians makes for an epic postseason matchup, and a potential new rivalry for the Sox.