Tag Archives: James Paxton

Red Sox-Yankees Series Preview

When the Red Sox and Yankees usually meet it is a contest of an immovable object vs an unstoppable force. In this case the immovable object is a losing record for both teams, the unstoppable force injury on one side and mediocrity on the other.

The Yankee injuries include Stanton, Severino, Gregroious, Betances, Sanchez, Hicks and Andujar. That’s an All Star team. Not for nothing, but Aaron Judge seems like the only important piece not injured. They’re record is 6-9 and there’s a very good reason for it.

And then there is the 6-11 Red Sox. If I have to hear ‘It’s early’ one more time I might just burn one of my many Red Sox towels. The ravens have flown, it is officially spring. This team is sleep walking right now and it has to stop. On to the preview:

Image per Larry Brown Sports

Pitching Matchups/Schedule (TV)

4/16 Chris Sale vs James Paxton 6:35 NESN

417 Nathan Eovaldi vs J.A. Happ 6:35 ESPN

Notable Numbers

1.93: That is the ERA for both Chris Sale and Nathan Eovaldi against the Yankees in the last three years. They’re certified Yankee killers. Could this be just what the doctor ordered to get these guys on track? Who can say?

Against Paxton, J.D. Martinez should continue his hot start to the season. He’s hit .500 against Paxton in his career. Both Brock Holt and JBJ have gone 3-7 against him as well. That short porch in right at Yankee Stadium might be beneficial to the Sox slumbering bats.

The Sox may hit Happ to a measly .212 as a team, but Steve Pearce has shined: .344 lifetime with 6 home runs.

What To Watch For

How about a little life from the boys? How about a glimmer of hope that the team is here to play this year? If you listened to Cora after Patriots Day he seemed to sense that maybe it’s not so early. On paper the Sox should sweep the two game series.

Expectations

It’s anyone’s guess right now. Even if the Sox sweep these two games it will be against half the Yankees. Look for signs of life. If we see grind it out at bats and pitchers hitting locations early we’ll know the Sox are waking up. But Nathan Eovaldi has a 8.40 ERA, Chris Sale a 9.0 ERA. The team is hitting around .230 overall right now.

Again, on paper, this is a Red Sox sweep. But the flesh and blood Sox are teetering on the precipice of irrelevancy. The fact the Yankees are reeling is the only light in our collective Sox universe.

I’m hoping for Cora to put on his cape and cowl and give us another super hero managerial performance. To save this team from themselves. But it sure looks like the Night King has set up residence in the clubhouse.

Featured Image via HBO screen grab

Do the Red Sox Have a Balance Problem?

There’s no denying that the Red Sox possess one of the most potent offenses in Major League Baseball. That’s what you get when you put together a lineup anchored by MVP favorite Mookie Betts and destroyer-of-right-field-bleacher-creatures J.D. Martinez. As of Saturday morning, the Sox rank:

  • 2nd in the Majors in runs
  • 2nd in HR
  • 3rd in SB
  • 2nd in ISO
  • 2nd in batting average
  • 4th in OBP
  • 2nd in slugging (and 2nd in OPS)
  • 3rd in wRC+

I could go on, but you get the picture. Boston’s ability to score repeatedly is one of the main reasons why they have the most wins in baseball and the second-best run differential. Yet, while the overall performance of the lineup on a night-to-night basis has been a strength, there are a few red flags regarding the sustainability of its production. Most immediately pressing? A void between the “good” and the “bad” so wide and deep that Michael Cera or Aziz Ansari might crawl out of it at any moment.

Highs and Lows

Here’s the Red Sox most-used lineup this season, substituting Mitch Moreland for the recently deposed Hanley Ramirez (wRC+ and plate appearances in parentheses):

  1. Betts (204 in 232 PA)
  2. Andrew Benintendi (149 in 300 PA)
  3. Moreland (137 in 197 PA)
  4. Martinez (177 in 286 PA)
  5. Xander Bogaerts (130 in 237 PA)
  6. Rafael Devers (83 in 281 PA)
  7. Eduardo Nunez (66 in 254 PA)
  8. Jackie Bradley Jr. (57 in 229 PA)
  9. Christian Vazquez (47 in 177 PA)

As for other players with more than 50 PA this year, only Brock Holt (120 in 133 PA) has a wRC+ over 100. The next highest non-regular still with the team? Sandy Leon, whose 58 wRC+ is somehow still 45 points better than poor Blake Swihart‘s 13(!?!?!?!?!?!?) in 70 plate appearances. A full explanation on wRC+ can be found here for the uninitiated, but it is useful because it serves as an all-encompassing stat that takes into account criteria like era, park factors, and total offensive performance. League average for any given season is an even 100. The best season per this metric: 2001 Barry Bonds (an astonishing 244 wRC+, or 144% better than league average). The worst (min 300 PA)? 1909 Bill Bergen (an equally astonishing 5 wRC+, or 95% worse than league average).

Worth Worrying About?

All of this is to say that the Red Sox could do with taking a page out of Thanos’ book. While Betts’ transcendent season has lifted the lineup from the jump, the gap between the haves and have-nots is alarming enough to start an Occupy Jersey Street movement at any moment. It’s great that Benintendi has slashed .340/.421/.673 since May 5th, and that Martinez is so comfortable in this lineup he’s moved on to fixing other guys’ swings. However, when almost than half of the everyday starters are producing at well below league average, it tempers expectations a bit. Can the bottom part of the order really be relied on come October? Is Holt really going to be the biggest PH threat off the bench all season? Will Dustin Pedroia ever come back, and if (when) Martinez makes his annual trip to the DL, who will step up?

The Sox don’t have those answers yet. As they make their way towards the dog days of summer, it might not even matter. But last night’s game in Seattle highlighted just how frustrating a lopsided lineup can be. Boston touched up AL Cy Young Award contender James Paxton for 6 runs (5 earned) in the 3rd inning. It was the only frame in which they scored, and the Mariners were able to stage a late inning rally against Heath Hembree and Matt Barnes as a result. With 6 weeks left until the July 31st trade deadline, you have to think Dave Dombrowski will take a hard look at balancing out this roster. After all, this team isn’t supposed to be satisfied with beating good teams in June. It’s meant to beat great teams in the fall.