Tag Archives: Joe Kelly

Red Sox Predicted Playoff Roster

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With the MLB Playoff races still heating up, the Red Sox are guaranteed a spot in the hunt for October.  Who will be on the playoff roster?

While there are 40 games still to be played, the hunt for October glory has already crossed the minds of fans nationwide.  The postseason roster will look very similar to the active roster, but there will be some shake ups in my predictions.

Starting rotation:

1. Chris Sale: The Cy Young award candidate will be the ace of this team in the playoffs. While he has had more rest under new manager Alec Cora, fans hope to see a different Chris Sale than this time last season.

2. Rick Porcello: Probably one of the most underrated players on this team, the former Cy Young award winner has had a phenomenal year. He has had an excellent command of his sinker, and forced more groundball outs than last year.

3. David Price: Although Price has had zero success as a starter in the playoffs throughout his career, this year seems different. Price has been more efficient, and a overall better pitcher than in recent memory.

4.   Nathan Eovaldi: Although he has never been a prime time starting pitcher, he has proven to the Red Sox organization that he is ready to take on a big role throughout the duration of the playoffs. If he can even pitch as well as he has in his first 2 starts, don’t sleep on him.

Bullpen:

Although the bullpen has been under performing lately, they still have more depth than a lot of teams in the league.

Matt Barnes, Heath Hembree, Tyler Thornburg, Ryan Brasier, Joe Kelly, Hector Velasquez, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Craig Kimbrel ( closer).  

These guys have solidified their roles in the bullpen. It would be hard to imagine the team calling up someone from the minors to fill in, besides an injury or two, towards the end of the regular season.

Infield:

(Catchers) Christian Vasquez, Sandy Leon. ( First Base) Mitch Moreland, Steve Pearce. (Second base) Ian Kinsler, Brock Holt, Eduardo Nunez, Blake Swihart. ( Third Base) Rafael Devers, ( same utility guys from second and shortstop.) ( Shortstop) Xander Bogaerts. 

Designated Hitter:

J.d Martinez, ( Pearce and Moreland as rotates) 

Outfield:

Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley Jr, ( Martinez.) 

As previously stated, my prediction looks similar to the current roster (besides a couple of minor tweaks.) What are your thoughts? Comment or simply tweet me @kyle_porch. Follow me and bostonsportsextra to stay in the news with the most up-to-date coverage.

Joe Kelly’s a Hero

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In January of 2015, five and a half months after the Red Sox acquired him from the Cardinals in a deadline day trade, Joe Kelly predicted he would win the AL Cy Young Award. A lot has happened since then, including 31 mostly mediocre starts across his first two full seasons in a Red Sox uniform, a demotion to the bullpen, a change in hairstyle, a foray into on-field reporting, and becoming Public Enemy No. 1 in New York. There’s also this: Kelly has become the most reliable arm (outside of Craig Kimbrel) in Alex Cora‘s bullpen arsenal.

This didn’t happen overnight. Kelly’s evolution from failed starter to quality set-up man has taken time; time that has yielded one of the more unique (and seemingly contradictory) pitch mixes in the majors. Per Brooks Baseball, Kelly’s fourseam fastball “generates an extreme number of groundballs” when compared to other RHP’s. His sinker “is an extreme flyball pitch compared to other pitchers’ sinkers”. His two main offspeed pitches (slider and changeup) have generated a ton of flyballs too. Despite this, Kelly’s groundball rate is as low as it’s been since 2016. Red Sox fans probably won’t remember Joe’s performance that year too fondly. He posted a 5.18 ERA and allowed home runs on a career-worst 17.9% of flyballs.

So what changed? First, and perhaps most importantly, Kelly has figured out how to make his blazing fourseamer wiggle a bit. His average velocity in 2017 (99.29 mph) and 2018 (98.53 mph) on that pitch is up from 2015 (97.13 mph) and 2016 (97.28 mph). Moving to the bullpen makes that an expected result. However, that has also coincided with an increase in vertical movement. Kelly’s “hard” classified pitches have had a differential movement of 9.16 this season, up from 7.17 in 2015 or 7.64 in 2016. As a result, batters are hitting Kelly with less authority than ever before. Per FanGraph’s data, 32.9% of batted balls against Kelly have been classified as “soft”, a vast improvement over his previous career high of 19.2%.

Kelly has also regained command of the strike zone. He posted a 10.4 K-BB% in 2015, and walked 5.4 batters per nine innings in 2016. He’s only walked 3.90 batters per nine innings this season. Additionally, his 15.5 K-BB% stands as a career best. It’s a simple formula, but not one every pitcher is able to crack. Fortunately for Kelly, he has had the talent and the perseverance to figure it out.

Kelly entered the game on Monday night in a tough spot. The score was knotted at zero in the bottom of the seventh with the bases juiced, and one of Baltimore’s best players at the plate. The righthander did what you’d expect from any top-notch setup man– he struck out Adam Jones on five pitches to end the inning. Cora dropped him into an almost identical situation on Tuesday night, and again Kelly delivered. This time, he got Jonathan Schoop to weakly tap into a 1-2 force out with the bases loaded. It was a two-game stretch that stood in stark contrast to prior seasons. It also stood in stark contrast to Joe’s first outing of the year, when he allowed a double and three walks in 0.1 innings of work.

At any rate, Kelly’s high-level performance and dramatic improvement may not win him a Cy Young award any time soon. However, he’s remade himself into one of the most clutch players on this Red Sox roster. He might just end up with even more meaningful hardware as a result.

Carson Smith: Bounce Back Season Or Back To The DL?

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While his start to the season has proved to be a rocky one at best, will he be able to turn it around?

For Carson Smith, his recovery from Tommy John surgery is over 2 years in the making. While landing himself on the disabled list yet again has stirred up some controversy. After leaving Monday’s 6-5 loss in the end of the 8th, he threw his glove during a tantrum which resulted the injury.

On Wednesday, Smith said in a statement: ” “I think my shoulder’s tired in general, just from pitching. I’ve thrown a lot lately and I think my arm was just tired.” Later that day, manager Alex Cora made a surprisingly different statement when asked about smith’s comments: “I don’t agree with it. On a daily basis we talk to pitchers and how they feel. If they don’t think they can pitch that day, we stay away from them.” He added, “It caught me by surprise. If he felt that way he should’ve told it to us or he should’ve mentioned it.”

While they handle the injury, the bullpen still has guys like Kimbrel,Kelly, and hopefully a bounce back week from guys such as : Johnson, and Hembree. While the bullpen hasn’t lived up to expectations, it’s still a long season. Combined, the bullpen sports a 6-4 record with a 3.63 combined ERA in just over 100 innings of relief work. While also tallying 121 strikeouts combined.

Smith is responsible for a 1-1 record with a 3.77 ERA through 14.1 innings pitched and striking out 18. After a fantastic showing in his Red Sox debut last season, the numbers haven’t matched up.

The latest update:

Smith was placed on the 10 day Dl as of yesterday. The team also recalling relief pitcher Bobby Poyner from AAA Pawtucket. Also completing the Deven Marerro trade by acquiring LHP Josh Taylor today as well. How both the team and Smith himself handles this situation remains to be seen. Soon enough, time will tell if Smith is bust or bounce back material.

 

The Hunt for a Better Bullpen

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If you watched Red Sox baseball this past week, you should have seen a trend forming. All week great starting pitching was followed by the bullpen crapping themselves. The stats in the last seven days can support this claim, as Sox starters have had a 3.11 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP. Sox relievers have had a 6.06 ERA with a 1.59 WHIP. This has been frustrating to watch and almost makes us forget about Jackie Bradley Jr.’s woes at the plate.

Better Numbers are Ahead

The full season’s numbers don’t paint the same story, however. Sox relievers in the entire season have posted a 3.76 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Starters also going on to average 3.49 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Clearly, we can justify this by saying the obvious: The Red Sox bullpen had a bad week. They were not clutch and they did not throw quality strikes. More was expected from this quality pitching staff.

The only way from here is up and the quality is ahead of us, folks. We have seen this bullpen do tremendous things when they try. Carson Smith is finally turning the corner, posting a 1.04 ERA in the last 28 days (11 games) with 12 strikeouts and one earned run. In the same sample size, Joe Kelly has posted a 0.77 ERA with 16 strikeouts and one earned run.

Reinforcements are Incoming

Don’t forget, more help is on the way. Tyler Thornburg is set to begin his rehab assignment in Triple-A Pawtucket on Monday 5/14. Steven Wright is also slated to join the Sox on the same day. A much needed depth will be added to this bullpen, but what can we expect from the two? Thornburg hasn’t pitched in a major league baseball game since 2016. Even then, I’m sure Cora will be using him sparingly since he’s apparently made of glass. Even Wright, who has recovered fully from his left knee injury and served his 15 game suspension for domestic violence, will be a mixed bag of results.

Also, at some point, Bobby Poyner should be getting called back up as well. Poyner posted a 2.25 ERA in seven regular season games with the Sox, and even has a 1.42 ERA in six games with the PawSox. If anybody outside of Brian Johnson slips up, expect to see Poyner in the big league bullpen for the majority of the season.

Dealin’ Dave at it Again?

What if this all doesn’t pan out the way we expect? There will be trade activity around the time of the deadline (or even sooner) and the Red Sox will be involved one way or another. Kelvin Herrera and Jeurys Familia are two names that will probably finish the 2018 season with a different team and are two pieces that can really bring a bullpen to the next level. Yes, both are closers and both are eligible for free agency in 2019, so they would be rentals. However, the Sox obviously wouldn’t dare move Craig Kimbrel from his job in the pen.

The Mets and the Royals both seem to be trending downward quickly and I would be shocked if they were playoff contenders this season. Also, both teams could use an outfielder which could potentially prompt a JBJ trade. Familia is known for his sinker which averages at 97 mph and Herrera for his 89 mph changeup. Also, they have been in the spotlight before as they actually faced each other in the 2015 World Series. That last part is something the Sox bullpen lacks: clutch factor.

Overall, these two players will find another home this season acting as rentals. The New York Yankees are also in the same boat as the Red Sox for the fact that their bullpen hasn’t been the best either. Also, going off of last year, the Astros bullpen may not be the best as well. All in all, the Sox won’t be alone when it comes to bolstering their relief pitchers, but hopefully this bad week has been a wake up call to the front office.

@ELJGON

Joe Kelly

Joe Kelly Becoming A Key Bullpen Piece

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When the Red Sox acquired Joe Kelly at the 2014 trade deadline they envisioned him becoming a rotation fixture. Four years later Kelly has turned into a key bullpen piece. As a starter he has never been able to pitch deep into games forcing the Sox to move him into the bullpen. In Kelly’s first season as a reliever he recorded a 2.79 ERA. Through eighteen appearances this year Kelly as been even better in a Red Sox Bullpen that has struggled at times.

Moving Joe Kelly Into The Bullpen

Kelly has always been known for his fastball that can top 100 mph . This was a problem for the flamethrower as a starter he was unable to control it. Since being moved into the bullpen his control has improved. In fifty eight innings last year he struck out fifty two batters. He struck out twenty four batters over his last twenty innings and opponents hit .202 against him. Kelly struggled last year in the second half but his .279 ERA was still impressive. For the Red Sox it seems like they have finally been able to salvage something from the John Lackey Trade. In 2018 Kelly is only adding to that narrative.

Joe Kelly

Photo Credit: David Kohl- USA Today Sports

His 2018 Season So Far

This season has been an interesting one for Kelly. He became a fan favorite for what happened in the Yankees first series at Fenway. His work on the mound has been even more impressive than his fighting skills. Kelly has thrown nineteen innings, striking out twenty two batters with an ERA of 2.23. The Red Sox have used him in high leverage situations as he has two saves on the year after having none last year. When Kimbrel was unavailable Kelly was not the reliever called on to close out games. Kelly is becoming one of Manager Alex Cora’s most trusted weapons.

Joe Kelly

Photo Credit: Joe Robbins/ Getty Images

What To Expect

As the season goes on Kelly is expected to be one of the Red Sox most used relievers. Kelly’s opportunities in high leverage situations will be determined by his performance. The right-hander will be a free agent at the end of the year which will keep him highly motivated. The Red Sox had high expectations when they traded for Joe Kelly in 2014. If he can continue his impressive start then it could be a special season for the former starter.

The Pursuit of Renewing the Rivalry

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On a cold Wednesday night in April, the Red Sox faced off against the Yankees in what seemed to have the hallmarks of an epic clash. Both teams have a long history of mutual hate and a few years of idle feelings. However, things boiled over in Fenway Park, and thus the pursuit of a rekindled rivalry was not hard to find. Rob Manfred wants to push the evolution of baseball further? Not if these two teams have anything to say about it. 

The Yankees and Red Sox rivalry has been quite “cold war-ish” for the last few years. The last incident that I can remember off the top of my head that included these two teams in a heated way was when Ryan Dempster plunked Alex Rodriguez in 2013, after MLB announced their 2014 season long suspension for Rodriguez. Dempster had a reason, I suppose, to hit Alex. But the latter is the one who got the last laugh when he belted a home run later in that game and lead his team to a 9-6 win. After that, the two teams seemed to go their separate ways, but always keeping each other in the back of their minds.

Wednesday night in Fenway proved to be something in the works for a while now. And frankly, nobody is surprised. The Yankees seemed to be seeking revenge after losing the night before to a massive score of 14-1. What really started the fire, however, was a less than textbook slide by Tyler Austin, a 6’2″ first baseman from Georgia.

The Rivalry Renewed

There is speculation between many people as to the intentions of Austin, but it really does not matter his intention. The fact is that he slid into second base with his cleats up, not aiming for the base, and endangered Brock Holt, who was on the receiving end of the first part of a potential double play. Holt shared his displeasure and Austin, (for whatever reason) took exception. An Umpire got between them and all of a sudden everybody lost their minds. Bullpens clear, dugouts clear, people on Twitter are going nuts over something that two ball players were taking care of themselves.

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Things Heat Up

On to the top of the seventh inning and Tyler Austin is up to bat. Guess what? Austin gets hit by a fastball square in the back by Joe Kelly for obvious reasons. This was a necessary move by someone on the Sox. Kelly decided that he would be the one to carry on the unwritten rules of the game. To make it short: if you do something wrong to a player on the opposing team, you will be hit by a pitch at your next at bat. That’s just how things go in baseball. The fact that Austin decided that Kelly was out of bounds by doing so is just asinine.

As an example dating back to about 39 years ago when Wayne Gross hit a home run off of reliever Ed Farmer. Gross took his time rounding the bases. Consequently, Farmer was furious and never had the chance for redemption. Four years later he got him back, when they were on the same team. During a batting practice session, Farmer beaned Gross with a fastball in the back with the first pitch.

“What was that for!” Gross screamed.

“That was for four years ago!” Farmer screamed back.

“OK,” Gross said. “We’re even!”

Gross took his lump and life continued. Austin was in the wrong twice on Wednesday night for sliding incorrectly (regardless of intention or not), and charging the mound after what everybody knew what was coming. Except for himself, apparently.

Alas, we have finally reached the point to where baseball can be baseball and boys can be boys again. The Red Sox and Yankees have bad blood towards each other, and the world seems to be normal again. But be forewarned fans of both teams: this is going to be a very long season. The hope for some baseball to break out in between these fights should be high. The sports world has been waiting for this rivalry to renew, and they are about to get their money’s worth.

Which Joe Kelly Will We See This Season?

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Red Sox fans don’t have much to complain about right now. The Sox are 6-1 out of the gate and have taken an early division lead. Starting pitching has been sensational, Xander’s on pace for 138 doubles, and Benintendi seems to be snapping out of the honeymoon phase. Things are looking good, but the Sox should be undefeated. Joe Kelly can’t be giving up leads like he did on Opening Day. He has the skill set to be an elite pitcher in the Major Leagues, but he’s always struggled with consistency.  He’s had a roller coaster of a career, but he can be a key piece of the Sox bullpen if all goes well.

Kelly began his Major League career in St. Louis back in 2012, and immediately made a name for himself.  His triple-digit fastball was overpowering, even as a rookie.  He posted a 5-7 record to go with a solid 3.53 ERA, while pitching mostly as a starter.  He consistently alternated between the starting rotation and the bullpen throughout the following year, but it didn’t seem to bother him.  Kelly finished his second season with a 10-5 record along with a 2.69 ERA and helped carry the Cardinals to an NL pennant.  Luckily, David Ortiz and the Red Sox made sure it stopped at that, and took home the World Series title.  The Sox ironically snagged Kelly at the trade deadline the very next season, and this is where the inconsistency started to become an issue.

THE RED SOX YEARS

He wasn’t terrible during his first year in Boston, but didn’t come close to the numbers he put up in St. Louis.  Farrell opted to slot him in a starting role and Kelly went 4-2 with a 4.11 ERA through ten starts.  After a mediocre first season with the Sox, Kelly was determined for redemption.

He was so anxious to prove his worth to the Fenway Faithful that he even guaranteed a 2015 Cy Young victory prior to the season. This gave the fans something to talk about, but Kelly set the bar too high for his own good.  He put up a 10-6 record through 25 starts but this didn’t correspond with his overall performance.  He posted a sub-par 4.82 ERA and the Red Sox finished the season at dead last in the AL East.  This was the second lowest ERA in the rotation, and far from a Cy Young caliber season.

(Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)

The 2016 campaign was even more of a train wreck.  Kelly suffered an early right shoulder impingement and was sidelined until mid-May.  He wasn’t the same when he returned and struggled consistently.  This landed him a spot in Pawtucket for a good portion of the season, but Kelly returned as a reliever for the tail end of the year.  He only logged 40 innings and put up a dismal 5.18 ERA, but finished off strong by throwing three and 2/3 scoreless innings in the ALDS.

 

Kelly was able to carry the momentum into 2017 where he solidified himself as a reliever.  He threw 58 innings over 54 appearances and nearly cut his ERA in half from 2016, finishing at 2.79.  He held hitters to a minuscule .202 average and began to look like the 2013 version of himself. Kelly even threw the hardest pitch of the entire 2017 MLB season during an at-bat against Aaron Judge.  The pitch was originally clocked at 103.5 mph but was later estimated to be just over 102, which was still the hardest pitch of the year.

AN OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE

The inconsistency is frustrating, but Kelly has true potential.  We saw how he helped propel St. Louis to an NL pennant in just his second season, and his numbers from last year weren’t far off.  He has a next-level fastball to go with a sinker, slider, curveball, and change-up, but needs to learn how to harness his velocity.  You’d expect more strikeouts out of a guy who can hit 102 on the gun.

If Kelly can perform like he did last season, the Red Sox will have one of the best 8th- 9th inning tandems in the Major Leagues.

 

Cover image courtesy of CBS St. Louis.

Red Sox Postseason Numbers Crunch in Bullpen

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The Red Sox face a roster crunch for the postseason. Many bullpen arms have stepped up down the stretch and pitching well in critical spots. Of course, not a bad problem to have. It does however beg the question, which ones will make the postseason team?

Bullpen Arms

Craig Kimbrel is obviously on the team as the closer. That’s the number-one bullpen spot. Addison Reed will no doubt set him up. Despite a couple hiccups with the Red Sox, Reed has pitched well since coming over. With reports that David Price will pitch out of the pen in the playoffs, that’s three automatic spots occupied. Price is intriguing out there. It’s been a long time since he shut the Red Sox down in the ALCS in his rookie season coming out of the pen. However, he doesn’t have to worry about lasting and can just rear back and throw. He could be an effective left-handed option for them in crucial spots. Price would also be available for multiple innings at times in big spots if innings are needed. As for the other options…

Matt Barnes has been with the team all year, leading with 66 appearances. He can be hit or miss though, and his 3.88 ERA is high compared to the teams other relievers. Is there a chance one of their most used relief pitchers over the last two seasons off the postseason roster? He does strike out a lot of players —  75 batters in 65 innings. He’s not very trustworthy though.

Heath Hembree has pitched for the Sox a lot this season, appearing in 60 contests as of this writing. Hembree has a decent 3.58 ERA, but his 1.46 WHIP is the worst of anyone with more than 20 appearances. He puts a lot of men on base, which would be awfully nerve-wracking in the playoffs. Hembree, like Barnes, strikes out more than a batter per inning.

Joe Kelly has to be on the roster. With his 2.68 ERA and .207 opponent average, I trust Kelly much more than I trust either Barnes or Hembree. His 100 mph heat can be overpowering and elicits a lot of weak contact.

Brandon Workman has been outstanding for the Sox since coming back from injury. He has worked 37.1 innings to a 2.41 ERA. He can work multiple innings if needed, and do so effectively, a key weapon to have in the postseason.

Carson Smith shows us all what we have been waiting for. Somehow fleecing the Mariners in acquiring Smith (and Elias) for Wade Miley, Smith hadn’t pitched in almost two seasons for the Sox until this month. In 2015 he struck out nearly 12 batters per nine innings and had a 2.31 ERA. This kid has an electric arm. Since returning, Smith has struck out five batters over 4.1 shutout innings. I’d want him on the roster.

Austin Maddox has come out of nowhere to throw his hat in the mix. A guy hardly anyone knew anything about not long ago, Maddox is a 26-year-old career minor leaguer. His career ERA in the minors is 4.27. He’s pitched better the further into his professional career he has gone, posting a sub 4.00 ERA each of the past three seasons. This year his ERA was below 3.00 combined between Portland and Pawtucket. Since joining the big club, Maddox has thrown 12.1 shutout innings! Very shocking. He has allowed only 10 base runners and struck out 10 batters.

For left handers, I have to think at least one other than Price will make it. We have two options. Robby Scott pitched great in a few appearances late last season. This year he has been a little up and down, but when you only face a couple batters a game at most, your ERA fluctuate wildly. Batters hit only .186 off of him and he has a 1.03 WHIP. Beyond that, lefties bat an anemic .131 versus Robby. His should only face a lefty in a big spot.  Why wouldn’t you want someone that dominant versus them?

The other option is Fernando Abad.   John Farrell can’t seem to get past the fact he stunk last year. Abad is 2-0 with a 2.98 ERA this season however, showing why Dombrowski acquired him to begin with. Abad has a much better ERA than Scott, but his peripherals aren’t as good, allowing more hits and putting more men on base. Also, he isn’t as effective at getting lefties out, which is what the Sox will need from their left hander in the pen.

If I were to pick, I would say Kimbrel, Reed, Price, Kelly, Workman, Smith and Scott. Could even choose to keep eight, with four starters instead of five it opens another roster spot. The 4th rotation spot seems to be up for grabs, but whoever loses out in that battle won’t make the playoff roster as a reliever.

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