The Boston Red Sox had momentum coming into this series after taking three of four from the New York Yankees. They were a half game behind the Rays in the American League Wild Card standings. After the series concluded, the Red Sox find themselves three and a half behind as the Rays swept them at Fenway Park. Although the results aren’t what the Red Sox want, there were positives to take away. Here are the important tidbits of what you need to know about the most recent Red Sox and Rays series!
Game 1: Rays 6 Red Sox 5
The first game of this series felt like a win. It was a back and forth game that brought good at bats, good battles, and puzzling pitching moves. The Red Sox were down 4-3 in the bottom of the fifth inning. In a surprise move, Rays manager Kevin Cash decided to pull starter Charlie Morton for a lefty reliever to face Andrew Benintendi. The center fielder hit a two run homerun to left field to put the Red Sox back on top.The lead wouldn’t last long, as Colten Brewer came on and gave the lead right back in the top of the sixth inning. The Red Sox would ultimately lose 6-5. Benintendi and Rafael Devers both had three hits apiece in this one to pace the offense. Sam Travis also had a nice little game for himself, going 2-2 at the plate. The Red Sox saw action from seven of their pitchers in the narrow defeat as well.
Game 2: Rays 8 Red Sox 5
In game two, the Rays came out and attacked the Red Sox early and often. The Rays offense scored five runs off of Rick Porcello to cruise to an easy win. Although the game never felt as close as the score indicated, there were still Red Sox players who performed well. Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez led the way on offense, getting three hits a piece while knocking in two runs. Sam Travis had another two hit game, and Michael Chavis went two for four in this one with an RBI as well. Josh Taylor and Marcus Walden pitched well in the last two innings for the Red Sox, combining for no walks and five strikeouts.
Game 3: Rays 9 Red Sox 4
Another day, another rough game for the Red Sox. Andrew Cashner started and continued to struggle. At the plate, Xander Bogaerts was four for four on the day with two homeruns. Andrew Benintendi also stayed hot at the plate with three hits. All in all, this was just a tough way to end the series for the Red Sox, as the Rays completed the sweep.
In Conclusion
This isn’t the desired result wanted, but it’s on to the Bronx. Hopefully, the Red Sox pick it up a little pitching wise and can take at least the last two from the Yankees. If this Red Sox team wants to make a push for the playoffs, they have to get going right now. Not in a month, not in a week, they have to start playing consistently right now. Let’s see how this team responds in the second game tonight!
The first half of the MLB season is officially history and the All-Star teams have been selected. For the Red Sox, J.D. Martinez and Mookie Betts have been selected onto the American League All-Star roster as reserves at D.H. and outfield, respectively. But what about Rafael Devers? Why isn’t he on the All-Star team? Well, I am about to defend why Devers should have been on the All-Star team.
His Average
Most of the time, you hear about Hall of Fame hitters having an average right around .300. Well, Devers is certainly exceeding Hall of Fame numbers. He is currently hitting .329 with the Red Sox in the first half of the 2019 season. That is good for second in the American League, behind the Yankees D.J. LeMahieu. Isn’t D.J. LeMahieu in the All-Star game? Last time I checked, yes indeed he is! Bottom line is that if you are hitting above .300 at the Major League level, you should be finding a way to get that player to the All-Star game. Oh and just for what it’s worth, Devers went 4-5 again last night against the Toronto Blue Jays.
His RBI Count
Not only is Rafael Devers hitting for average, but he is also knocking in runs left and right. It seems like whenever Devers is up, he has runners on base and they’re finding their way home. So far this season, Devers has 58 RBI’s. That is good for 8th in the American League, ahead of the likes of players such as Edwin Encarnacion, Gary Sanchez, and Alex Bregman just to name a few players. Oh and by the way, Sanchez and Bregman are All-Stars this year too! Whatever. At least Devers is knocking in runs for the Red Sox and can be a reason why they can turn things around in the second half of the season.
His Defense Improving
Now let me preface this by saying that I know Devers isn’t winning a Gold Glove any time soon. I get that, believe me. But think about this. Last season, Devers was one of the leaders in the entire MLB in errors at third base with 24 total. Last year, it was scary to see a ball hit in the direction of Devers. But now, he looks a lot more confident and smooth in the field. Sure, he has 12 errors in 78 games played at third base. But the thing is, a lot of those errors came early on in the season. He has since calmed down and made plays that he wouldn’t have come close to making last year. He is starting double plays with ease, he’s making tougher plays look much easier, etc. The bottom line is that Devers continues to improve his defense which is making him more of a complete player.
In Conclusion
Rafael Devers should be in the All-Star game, period. There are no ifs, ands, or buts about it. Devers has earned the right to take a plane ride to Cleveland and be a part of the All-Star festivities as an American League All-Star. With the way he has swung the bat so far this season and with his defense constantly getting better, Devers should be there this year. But don’t fret Red Sox fans. Devers will have a few All-Star nods under his belt before we know it.
If the Red Sox had gone into Minnesota and came away with one win it would have been perfectly fine. However, to go up against the Twins and win two of three puts the Red Sox in a great position for their upcoming six-game homestand.
6/21 Chris Sale vs. Trent Thornton (R) 7:10 pm NESN
6/22 Brian Johnson vs. TBD 4:05 pm NESN
6/23 Rick Porcello vs. Marcus Stroman (R) 1:05 pm NESN
NOTABLE NUMBERS
PITCHERS
Chris Sale’s 10 strikeouts in his last outing, means that he has struck out 10 or more in eight of his last 10 starts. Additionally, his ERA is down to a season-low 3.49. His average fastball velocity is now sitting just below 95 mph. It is still on the lower end of what we have seen earlier in his career, but it is better than what we saw at the start of the season.
Trent Thornton has been a somewhat frustrating pitcher this season. His season-long 4.36 ERA is solid, but his home form has been poor. His road ERA sits a 2.39, but his home ERA is 6.39, with 9-of-11 home runs he has allowed this season coming at home, giving him a .528 slugging percentage allowed in the Rodgers Centre. The Red Sox hope to reverse that trend as he comes to Fenway in the first game of the series.
Marcus Stroman’s numbers have been much more even, with his home and road ERA being within .02 (3.22 vs. 3.24) of one another. However, all nine of his home runs allowed have come in his home starts. Five of those home runs have come in his last four home starts, and all nine coming in his last six home starts. In addition, seven of those home runs have come against left-handed hitters. Much like with Thornton, the Red Sox are looking to change that form and deal Stroman some road home runs in this start.
HITTERS
The Toronto Blue Jays have a hard at the plate this season, but at home they have really struggled. They rank dead last in the majors in batting average with a terrible .205 line, .16 lower than the next worst team. They also rank dead last in wRC+, as well as bottom five in slugging percentage and wOBA.
The Red Sox were carried by their pitchers in the Twins series, as their offense scored just 14 runs in 35 innings. Those 35 innings are what you might expect from a four-game series, but this was just a three-game series, as Tuesday’s game went to 17 innings before Max Kepler won it for the Twins. Interestingly just two of the Red Sox 14 runs were scored by means of a home run. That is a promising sign as it means the Red Sox are able to string together plays to score runners in a tough series with a good team.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
Pitching: Seemingly every series I discuss the fifth starter situation, and this will be no different. With Brian Johnson on the mound against one of the worst offensive teams in the league, the Red Sox will be desperate to see him repeat his success from last time out. He only went three innings against the Orioles, but if he can stretch that out in this start, then he could cement himself as the short-term fifth starter in the rotation.
Hitting: The Red Sox have won seven of their last eight, scoring 53 runs in that time. An interesting subplot on this streak has been the form of Mookie Betts in June. Betts is hitting just .219 in 90 PAs this month, thanks in large part to a .224 BABIP. Another struggler this month has been Michael Chavis who has struck out in 31-of-74 PA in June. The Red Sox will be hoping those two can use this series to get them back in some form ready for the showdown with the Yankees in London at the end of the month.
EXPECTATIONS
In the space of a few days the feelings around this team have changed. Suddenly this team has gone from a road underdog just looking to stay hot, to a favorite expected to win a series at home. That brings a completely different pressure, especially for a team with just a .500 record at home.
Just a handful of days ago I was writing how we just wanted to not get swept in a series. Now the feeling is that anything less than a sweep against the Blue Jays might be disappointing. The Blue Jays have won just 26 games this season, and they are exactly the team the Red Sox need to beat well f they are to get back in the AL East race.
Two games into the series with the Rangers and it looked like disaster was about to strike. The Rangers came into Fenway and took the first two games of the series against the odds. However, the Red Sox pulled themselves together and managed to come out on top in the final two games. Now they head to Baltimore hoping to have another “get right” road series.
Chris Sales numbers in his last two outings are simply incredible. The veteran left-hander has thrown a total of 16 innings without allowing an earned run to score. What makes it even more impressive is that in those two starts he has allowed a total of six hits and one walk, while striking out 22. He has now struck out 10 or more in eight of his last 10 starts, and has given up three or more earned runs in just two of those 10 starts.
John Means has taken the majors by storm this season. The left-handed pitcher has a 2.60 ERA in his 15 games, including 11 starts. However, he has been especially good at home, allowing just six earned runs in 34 1/3 innings. Additionally, he has also had some success against the Red Sox, allowing just two runs to score in 12 innings.
The Red Sox can feel fairly comfortable in knowing what they will get when they face Dylan Bundy on Saturday. The veteran right-handed pitcher has a 4.50 ERA in 70 innings this season. In his last 10 starts, he has allowed between 2-and-4 earned runs in eight of those, averaging around one home run allowed per outing. However, for the Orioles, his performances are significantly improved since the start of the season. As of April 16th, he had a 7.79 ERA, which he has now managed to get down to 4.50 in the subsequent 10 starts.
HITTERS
Camden Yards should offer a chance for the Red Sox offense to have some fun. According to ESPN’s park factors, Camden Yards ranks third in runs, and fifth in home runs this season. The pitching matchups are not the easiest, especially against John Means, but this is the park for the Red Sox hitters to start hitting their groove.
Despite having the fifth best park for home runs, the Orioles offense ranks just 20th in home runs this season. In fact, scoring runs in general has been hard, as they rank 26th in that category too. Not only should this series be a good chance for the offense to find some rhythm, but the pitchers as well.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
Pitching: Once again that fifth starter spot is in the limelight. Darwinzon Hernandez and Ryan Weber have both had shots, but neither has stuck. Hector Velazquez and of course Nathan Eovaldi are on the injured list. Both will return before the end of the season, but the Red Sox are not in the luxurious position of being able to afford to give away one out of every five games with their fifth starter. Hopefully, a start against the Orioles can be the kick start someone needs to make the job their own for a little while.
Hitting: Incredibly all seven of the Red Sox runs came via the home run in the final game of their series with the Rangers. The five home runs they scored in that game were even more impressive, given they averaged just one per game in the rest of the series. The long ball has been a struggle for the Red Sox this season, as they rank just 12th in the majors. For a lineup stacked with the likes of J.D. Martinez, Mookie Betts, Steve Pearce, and Mitch Moreland, that is extremely disappointing. Hopefully they can add a few more multi-homer games this weekend.
EXPECTATIONS
If the start of the Rangers series was disappointing, the way the Red Sox bounced back was encouraging. It would have been easy to have folded, especially when the Rangers jumped out to a two-run lead in the third game. However, the offense fought back in both game, and they came away with a damage control split series.
Now they need to go and cash in against the Orioles, who are the worst team in the major leagues. The Orioles sit 21-46 with a -133 run differential and having won just three of their last 10. The Red Sox will head to the red hot Minnesota Twins after this series, so it is imperative they at least take two of these three games from the Orioles
This is one of those times as a Red Sox fan and follower that feels so familiar and foreign all at once. It’s like a long lost thought from limbo in Inception. When one win seems like the glorious sound of God, coming down like a lightning rod. This Red Sox puzzle seems to make no sense. The team won 108 last year, it’s the same team, what is happening?
There is trouble. There’s the World Series hangover effect, there’s concern about contracts. And Alex Cora and his staff have their plans that they want to stick to for long term success. What to do when the team isn’t winning?
Play every game like it’s Game 7 of the World Series.
Pitchers
Five pitchers. In one sense it was a bullpen game. In another it was no different than many games this year when the starter only goes three innings. The difference was Velazquez put up zeroes.
Cora needs to do more of this. Keep the pitchers accountable. Every win is important right now or there won’t be a playoffs. Motivate the pitchers to get over their malaise and focus on every pitch in any way possible. Once these guys get on track the bullpen can rest. Most of the starters have their money. Take innings away from them before they blow up, not after.
Little did we know the bullpen would be the strength of the team. Lean on them.
The Everyday Lineup
One of the pillars of Cora’s plan is resting players. He especially loves to give players a day off before scheduled days off. But there is rest, then there is overkill.
It seems insignificant, but that small note, “Betts in right field”, speaks volumes. Betts was scheduled for the double rest, but Cora put him in the field to protect a one run lead in the 9th.
This is a big change for Cora and the staff that should continue. In the past, Cora has refused to pinch hit resting players, much less put them in the field. It signals to the players that these games matter.
It seems like Cora has found an answer to the puzzle of resting players, but not being afraid to use them if needed. We’ll see how Chris Sale does tomorrow to see if he’s still in on Cora’s plan for a slow buildup. And if Sale falters early if Cora will pull him. That will show the pitchers that every win is important.
These are subtle but important changes that the team should stick to to get the ball rolling in 2019. Before yesterday, the team would have to play .600 ball the rest of the way to reach 93 wins. They might miss the playoffs with 93 wins, so they have to pick it up. They played .667 ball last year, we know they’re capable.
Have you ever been in a workplace where one person was promoted while another was passed over? Have you ever lost out to someone else when pursuing the same romantic connection? Have you ever worried about your future? The impending deadline for many Red Sox contracts is the elephant in the room. Here are the dynamics.
Chris Sale
Chris Sale got a hefty 5 year $150 Million extension. In the abstract this is a great deal. Sale is an all time pitcher for many reasons, and it’s only the 37th ranked deal in major league history. Considering how good Sale has been, and how most of the top deals are happening now, it was a nice job by Dombrowski.
If everything was going well, if the team was even .500, Sale’s slow start would be no big deal. He’s taking it slow. He’s really just had his third spring training start. He’ll be throwing 99 in September and October.
But things are not going well. Which opens the door for 2nd guessing. And not just by the media and fans.
Xander Bogaerts
Again, in a vacuum, a great deal. He’s only tied for #62 on the all time list. And he’s four years younger than Sale, and repped by Scott Boras. He’s a two time champ playing a premium position and one of the top Shortstops in the game. Record contracts are being handed out, and Dombrowski got him for 6 years, $120 Million. That’s actually a bargain.
He’s playing fine. He’s hitting .280 with an .899 OPS. That’s more than fine. But if he’s not worried about living up to his (underpaid but life changing) contract, does he run on Roman Laureano the second time?
Jackie Bradley Jr. and Mookie Betts
Bradley and Betts both have one year of arbitration left. But beyond Bogaerts and Sale, players all over baseball are getting contracts, including buying out the last year of arbitration. A lot of those players don’t have World Series rings on their resume.
Both of them are stubborn in their own way. Last year Jackie would brush away changing his swing due to shifts, and Mookie is turning down $200 Million deals because he thinks he’s worth more. Xander $120, Mookie $200 looks about right from here. But Mookie is looking at Mike Trout’s $426 Million.
Are they thinking about their contracts when they are not once, but twice, not communicating in the outfield? Were they questioning turning down contracts or how they deserve more? The first time they banged into each other, but the ball was caught. The second time it bounced between them for a two run double while they stood there. Somewhere in the Statcast universe there was a machine screaming that there was an 89% chance that ball would be caught.
And did Betts have his head on straight when he challenged the clearly greatest outfield defender of our generation Roman Laureno in the 9th inning?
Porcello has been the perfect #3 starter for this team. Yes, he won a Cy Young when everything went perfectly, but he’s the steady guy who’s going to make 30 plus starts and never go on the Injured List.
One secret to his success is control. When do we loose control? When we are worried and anxious and unsure of our future. When things are uncertain. Porcello is up after 2019. He’s practically begged to be signed, saying he would give a hometown discount. And couldn’t Porcello say to himself that he’s never had to go on the Injured List. He’s actually won a Cy Young. Couldn’t he be looking sideways at Chris Sale and saying to himself “This guy gets paid but I don’t?” Don’t quote me on this, but I believe Porcello was one of the few pitchers not in the room when Sale’s extension was announced.
Yesterday was the first time since he was a young pup of 23 in 2012 that Porcello has walked at least 3 batters in back to back games. That’s one way of loosing control. Here’s another:
Some say this is a 2018 World Series hangover. From here this is a mass of confusion, worrying and anxiety about contracts.
It can be fixed. These guys have to have some pride right? It’s a 4.5 game deficit to first in the AL East right now. That’s not insurmountable, and so far the guys are healthy. But they better wake up soon.
Well that was a dud. Chris Sale was bad, the bullpen was bad, the bats only managed 4 runs in a 12-4 loss. But this isn’t about injury, and it’s not about punching holes in the teams’ talent. This was a wake up call for a team coming off arguably the most historic season in it’s 117 year history.
Chris Sale
Yesterday we pointed to Chris Sale’s velocity to see if he was on board with the plan to take it easy. Thanks to Brooks Baseball we can see that his average four seam fastball traveled at 92.9 MPH. That is exactly where he needs to be in order to both last the season without breaking down, and be effective. Tony Massarotti points out that Sale averaged 94 MPH on his four seamer last April, and he went 2-1 with a 2.31 ERA then.
This is a new world for Sale. His whole life he has given 100% all the time. The Red Sox are asking him to dial it back so he’s in peak form for the playoffs. He’s being asked to be the Ace of the Boston Red Sox. He has a new contract. There is a lot on his shoulders. We know he gets it, he’s accountable, he’s passionate.
The Bullpen
The bullpen went 5 innings and gave up 4 earned runs. That’s not good. They’re not world beaters, but they’re also not a wheel of gutless bums. Coming into a Chris Sale game in the fourth inning down 7-2 is not normal.
Tyler Thornburg has a long way to go to receive Red Sox fans’ confidence, but despite what Dave Dombrowski says, he’s not being depended on to be a lock down guy. Alex Cora has sung Hector Velazquez’s praises, but he’s a mop up guy. He gave up 2 or more earned runs 10 times last year.
The only guy who was looked at as dependable in any way last year that pitched last night was Heath Hembree. He threw 17 pitches and got 2 outs, with a strike out and walk thrown in there. That’s an acceptable 7th inning guy, which is what he is being asked to be in the long run.
The Lineup
These guys can fall out of bed and score four runs against the Mariners’ pitching staff. That’s exactly what they did. They tested out a double steal, neat. Mookie went 3-4 and J.D. went 2-5, fabulous.
But where were the grind out at bats? The offense was listless.
The Outfield Defense
Good execution on throwing out Haniger at home by the team. But that was more routine and execution by Vazquez at home, that anything amazing on Mookie’s part.
And then there was the Mookie – Jackie almost debacle. Mookie called for the ball, and Jackie almost knocked it out of his glove by bumping into him in the outfield.
Wake Up Calls
This was all a lack of focus.
Chris Sale is human. His location was off. That falls into execution. Last season he decided to dial it up in June and July. He’s going to need to find that 2018 April for the full season.
It’s the major leagues. Batters can’t just roll out of bed and show up to win games. They need to focus on every pitch.
We haven’t seen the real bullpen weapons yet. We’ll have to wait and see how Barnes and Brasier and Brewer do. If they perform like Thorburg and Velazquez it will be a problem.
Outfielders need to be engaged. That means in every way, including communication. What happened with Bradley and Betts should not happen, no matter what stadium they’re in.
From here it feels like they all needed a wake up call to focus on the new season and leave 2018 behind. It’s a new world. They’re defending Champs coming off a historic season. A 12-4 lashing by the Seattle Mariners hopefully did the trick. Let’s see if Alex Cora and the team can come to the park with a renewed sense of the here and now tonight.
Yesterday the New York Post’s Joel Sherman detailed how much money Mookie Betts has turned down in recent years. Mookie then gave an interview to Red Sox reporters this morning detailing how he loves it here, but will be going to free agency instead of signing a long-term deal. Cue the hang wringing across Red Sox Nation.
But the fact Mookie is going year to year for the next two years makes him the greatest value in the majors right now.
Current Contract
Betts and the Red Sox recently agreed on a $20 million contract for 2019. That set a record for a player who was subject to salary arbitration. There was speculation that Nolan Arenado would break that, before he signed an 8 year $260 Million contract instead.
Mookie has one more year of arbitration before hitting his goal of free agency. If he follows up 2018 with something similar in 2019 he’s going to set an all time record in arbitration that will be hard to beat. The Red Sox have Mookie under arbitration control for only this year and next. He will become a free agent after the 2020 season.
Historic Footing
In 2018 Mookie Betts had a 10.9 WAR according to Baseball Reference. That is 21st on the All Time list. Number one is Babe Ruth’s 1923 at 14.1, second is Ruth’s 1921 at 12.9. You get the picture. The only post 2000 seasons in front of Mookie’s are Barry Bonds in 2001 and 2002.
Value
A lot of uneasiness is coming from Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, and Nolan Arenado signing long term deals, while Mookie is refusing to. None of those players have a higher WAR season than Mookie has right now.
Currently teams are agreeing on 8 to 10 year contracts at $30 plus million dollars for the privilege of having those players on their teams. None of those guys, including Trout, has ever had a better season than Mookie. Trout is the only one with an argument. Harper’s best season was his 10 WAR season in 2015.
Again, the Red Sox are paying Mookie Betts $20 Million this year. If he is true to his word, he will not sign a long-term extension before hitting free agency.
Risk
How many long term contracts have ever worked out in the Major Leagues? Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Alex Rodriguez, Robinson Cano – these are cautionary tales. Yes, Harper and Machado, and Trout and Arenado to a lesser extent, are all younger that those other guys when they got those big contracts. But injuries, declining performance, bad team relationships, and PED use are among the many risks that come with long term deals.
The Red Sox have the luxury of the possibility of two more outstanding seasons from Mookie Betts at the shortest possible term. Yes, it would be painful to see him in another uniform. But the Red Sox cannot make him sign a contract.
It’s All Good
This is a reason for celebration Sox Nation, not doom. If the Red Sox win the World Series again in the next two years, then lose Mookie Betts to another team in free agency, that is a win.
And give it time. The Red Sox can never be counted out when it comes to paying out big contracts. The big payroll situations come at the end of 2019. They can meet any rivals head on when Mookie’s free agency hits after 2020.
With the baseball season arriving, our baseball writers have come together to predict the 2019 award winners. In this article we each choose the winner of the MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year and Manager of the Year Awards for the coming season. We will follow shortly with a second article predicting the division winners and postseason results for the coming season.
American League Most Valuable Player
Thom Howland: Jose Ramirez hit .270 last year with an unlucky 25% hit rate. With his top tier power, peak age, and a Cleveland team gunning for another AL Central crown, the time is ripe for his MVP closeup. Dark horse candidate – Jose Abreu
Scott Frizzell: It is just so hard to pick against Mike Trout. The new $430 million dollar man has finished in the top two every year of his career except one, when he finished fourth after missing six weeks of action. Dark horse candidate – Andrew Benintendi
John Principe: Coming off a year that didn’t end in him winning the MVP, I fully expect Mike Trout to again put up his insane numbers. He’s the closest thing in sports to a perennial lock, and is my pick to stay healthy and win his third MVP. Dark horse candidate – Matt Chapman
Ben Rolfe: Yes, it is the boring pick, but Mike Trout is so far above anyone else in baseball right now it is incredible. If we ignore his small rookie appearance then Trout’s average WAR is 9.2 per year and his numbers are something out of a video game. Dark horse candidate – Luke Voit
Mike Quilty: Mike Trout may be the favorite, but I think Alex Bregman will have a huge year for Houston.
Mike Trout is always a safe bet to be near the top.
National League Most Valuable Player
Thom Howland: Kris Bryant, the former MVP, is over the injuries that sapped his power last year. The Cubs are being counted out, and he will be at the center of their resurgence. Dark horse candidate – Ronald Acuna
Scott Frizzell: Paul Goldschmidt is leaving the desert for St. Louis this season, and I think he will put up his usual big numbers while helping lead the Cardinals back to the postseason for the first time since 2015. After a dreadful first two months last year, Goldy batted .330 with 26 home runs and a 1.022 OPS from June 1st on. Dark horse candidate – Ronald Acuna
John Principe: Bryce Harper is coming off an okay year, but a great contract, what’s in store for him? The new Philly slugger, to me, is poised to breakout again and have his best season since his MVP year in 2015. Look for Bryce to put up another season with an OPS over 1.000, carry his Phils to an NL East title, and win MVP while he’s at it. Dark horse candidate – Ronald Acuna
Ben Rolfe: Nolan Arenado is one of the best fielders at his position and he hits in Coors Field, which always means his hitting numbers will be right up there. His best chance is if he can lead the Rockies back to the playoffs. Dark horse candidate – Jesus Aguilar
Mike Quilty: Paul Goldschmidt had never won the award before but has been close multiple times as a D-Back. After a trade to St. Louis a change of scenery may be just what he needs.
Paul Goldschmidt joins a new team for the first time in his career.
American League Cy Young
Thom Howland: The all-time MLB leader in K/9 and K/BB will put it all together this year. After 6 straight Top 5 AL Cy Young finishes, Chris Sale will finally gain the top spot in 2019. Dark horse candidate – Eduardo Rodriguez
Scott Frizzell: Coming off a fantastic first season in Houston, I will choose Gerrit Cole to win the Cy Young this year. There is no one candidate this year that stands out to me. Dark horse candidate – Shane Bieber
John Principe: Despite struggling in the second half of 2018, I expect a massive year out of Jose Berrios. The bats are a little better behind him, which should work to his advantage. He’s a nasty pitcher with devastating off-speed stuff and will have a good chance to finish at least top 5 in Cy Young voting. Dark horse candidate – Mike Clevinger
Ben Rolfe: The drop in velocity for Chris Sale has me scared, and Gerrit Cole looked so dominant at times last year. He will be a crucial part of a playoff bound rotation and could win 20 games this season.
Mike Quilty: Chris Sale has come in the top five in each of the last six years. Injury last season ended his first shot at the award as he was pitching well. I think Sale will have an amazing year in 2019 and win his first Cy Young.
Chris Sale always finishes in the top five, but can he finally win the coveted award?
National League Cy Young
Thom Howland: Noah Syndergaard went 4-1 with two shutouts in September of last year. Finally healthy after years of nagging injuries, and with an improved Mets team behind him, the promise of his 97+ MPH fastball and devastating off-speed stuff will bring home the NL Cy Young in 2019. Dark horse candidate – Luis Castillo
Scott Frizzell: I tried Noah Syndergaard last season and instead his teammate won the award. I’m going him again. Syndergaard has the stuff to win it, reaching into the upper-90’s with his fastball with a devastating slider thrown around 92. Dark horse candidate – Walker Buehler
John Principe: Walker Buehler came up and absolutely dominated last year. With Kershaw ready to pass the load (and possibly ace status) on to Buehler, this could be a huge breakout year for him in establishing himself as a premier pitcher in the NL. Dark horse candidate – Kyle Freeland
Ben Rolfe: Patrick Corbin moves to a rotation which is known for pitching success on the back of a great 2018. Pitching alongside Max Scherzer gives a perfect person for him to be compared to all season in order to win this award. Dark horse candidate – Robbie Ray
Mike Quilty: Max Scherzer has won three times already, and had a career high last season with 300 strikeouts. He went 18-7 with a 2.53 era and probably would’ve won his fourth if not for Jacob deGrom and his historic season.
“Thor” has electric stuff, but has had some injury troubles.
American League Rookie of the Year
Thom Howland: As a 19-year-old, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. rocketed from Rookie Ball all the way to AAA last year. Along the way he managed a .381 average, 20 Home Runs, and 29 Doubles. He’ll be delayed by a few weeks, but this 20-year-old will rake once he makes the show. Dark horse candidate – Josh James
Scott Frizzell: Eloy Jimenez could have a fantastic rookie season, but it’s hard to go against Vladimir Guerrero Jr. after he hit .402 at AA last season. This could shape up similarly to the Ronald Acuna vs Juan Soto race for Rookie of the Year last season. Dark horse candidate – Josh James
John Principe: Possibly the easiest category of all, Vlad Jr. is poised for greatness regardless of when his call-up comes. He’ll be in the show this season, hopefully by the middle of May at the latest. Even with his competitors getting possibly an extra month to pad their stats, Vlad should easily win this award. Dark horse candidate – Yusei Kikuchi
Ben Rolfe: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is not a particularly fun pick, but I cannot see who else it will be. Guerrero is so talented and in a hitter friendly park, he will have every chance to put up huge numbers. Dark horse candidate – Yusei Kikuchi
Mike Quilty: Vladimir Guerrero Jr, 19-year-old son of HOF Vladimir Guerrero has dominated every level he’s played at to this point. He’s a great talent with great lineage and will now showcase his talent in the big leagues.
Vlad Jr. is the only unanimous choice.
National League Rookie of the Year
Thom Howland: Fernando Tatis Jr. is another precocious 20-year-old. He hit .286 with 16 HR and 22 Doubles last year in AA. The Padres are moving the newly minted $300 Million Dollar Manny Machado to third base so Tatis Jr. can play every day. Dark horse candidate – Pete Alonso
Scott Frizzell: Nick Senzel keeps getting moved around the field due to being blocked at the big league level all over the infield. His bat will play anywhere though. It looks like his new home will be center field for the Reds. Although I think Pete Alonso might slug 30 home runs for the Mets, I believe Senzel will have a more rounded game, batting around .300 with 15-20 home runs and stolen bases. Dark horse candidate – Chris Paddack
John Principe: The opposite of the AL, this race seems wide open to me. With no clear favorite, the Mets slugger Pete Alonso is my choice. Alonso has a brilliant eye, and lots of pop in his bat and should have a chance to play first base right away for the Mets. Dark horse candidate – Nick Senzel
Ben Rolfe: Anyone with Nick Senzel’s talent who gets to play in a hitter friendly park is always going to have a great shot of success. Add in the highlight plays he seems to be capable of making in center field and this could be a fun player to watch this season. Dark horse candidate – Chris Paddack
Mike Quilty: If Alex Reyes can finally stay healthy, he has some of the most electric stuff in the entire sport.
Nick Senzel was drafted 2nd overall in 2016.
American League Manager of the Year
Thom Howland: The Angels are an afterthought in the AL playoff picture. The A’s funky stadium and Billy Beane’s witchcraft will run out, and Brad Ausmus will have the Angels in the playoffs for the first time since 2014. Dark horse candidate – Kevin Cash
Scott Frizzell: I like Thom’s pick of Brad Ausmus. Mike Scioscia had gone stale and in need of replacing, the fresh face of Ausmus will give the club an extra jolt this season. Although their pitching staff is questionable, their lineup is looking rock solid. Dark horse candidate – Rocco Baldelli
John Principe: After being named a finalist in 2018 due to his innovation and his ability to do lots with very little, Kevin Cash should take the next step and win this year. There’s always the possibility of a team exceeding expectations (i.e. 2018 Athletics) and that manager taking the award, but for now Cash seems like the safest bet. Dark horse candidate – Rocco Baldelli
Ben Rolfe: Rick Renteria could have a perfect storm of young talented players starting to reach their peak and a weak division. The White Sox could push the Indians deep this season and even not making the playoffs that would be enough to get Renteria in consideration for the award. Dark horse candidate – Rocco Baldelli
Mike Quilty: Call me a homer but I’m going with Alex Cora
Can Brad Ausmus lead the Angels to the playoffs in his first season at the helm?
National League Manager of the Year
Thom Howland: Bud Black has two top-five MVP possibilities in Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon. They have promising starters in Jon Gray, German Marquez, and Kyle Freeland. Black will help their pitching and lead them to the NL Playoffs, despite being given a slim 17.5% chance of doing so. Dark horse candidate – Dave Martinez
Scott Frizzell: Last year I said the Phillies would surprise people and hang in the race before ultimately fading. This year, they will win the NL East, and with it Gabe Kapler will take home the Manager of the Year Award. Dark horse candidate – David Bell
John Principe: David Bell has a great opportunity in front of him in his first year leading the Reds. A young lineup that has already proved itself may now have some pitching behind it to support this team. A lot of people have the Reds as the breakout team of 2019, myself included. If they can push themselves into playoff contention in that division, or even over .500, it’s going to be hard not giving this award to Bell. Dark horse candidate – Dave Martinez
Ben Rolfe: This is another case of a perfect storm. Gabe Kapler took a lot of stick for some of his decisions last season. However, now he has a young rotation and an incredibly talented lineup at his fingertips. This team could be in contention for the most wins in the NL. Dark horse candidate – Bud Black
Mike Quilty: I think Dave Roberts will get the Dodgers back to the World Series and have one of the best records. After losing one of his key players, that could be enough to net him this award.
The 2018 season is now just a few weeks away, and expectations are mounting once again for the Boston Red Sox. As the defending World Series Champions, a lot is once again expected from a team which is used to playing under pressure. With the powerful New York Yankees once again expected to provide the main threat in the division, the Red Sox will need contributions from the entire roster. However, they need their star players to lead from the front. Last week we looked at what we might expect from J.D. Martinez. This week it is the turn of star center fielder Mookie Betts.
The 2017 or 2018 Version?
If you take a look at the last two years of Betts’ career then you may come away with mixed feelings. After a strong 2016, in which Betts hit 31 home runs with a .318 batting average, 2017 was somewhat underwhelming. In 712 plate appearances Betts managed just 24 home runs and a career low .264 batting average. However, 2018 took things to a new level entirely. Betts finished last season with 32 home runs and a .346 batting average in 614 plate appearances. If you look at the balance of his career, then 2017 is the outlier.
One thing that has been consistent has been his ability to steal bases. The last three years have seen Betts average 27.3 stolen bases. Getting to 30 again in 2019 might be a push, but somewhere between 25 & 30 feels like a safe bet.
The Change in Approach
There is no other way to phrase it that Betts hit the crap out of the ball in 2018. Having never had an average exit velocity above 90 mph, Betts averaged a whopping 92.3 in 2018. Part of that is down to just how cleanly he hit the ball. Prior to last season, Betts averaged a Barrel % of around 5%. Last season that was an incredible 14.1%, the 16th best mark in the majors. If we look at his barrels compared to plate appearances he ranks as high as joint 4th (9.9%). Combine that with a nearly four degree increase in launch angle and the career best HR/PA rate of 5.2% makes a lot of sense.
That increase in exit velocity also explains why we saw a career high batting average. When you hit the ball that hard and that cleanly you are always going to have a chance to have a good batting average. However, expecting another .340 performance might be a stretch. Last season Betts expected batting average was back down at .311. That was second best in the league, behind just Christian Yelich, but it is a long way from that .346 number. In fact Betts had the 20th biggest difference in the between his expected and actual batting average. That kind of separation is unlikely to be sustainable.
One Dimensional?
There is no denying that Betts is a great all around player. However, there is some fear that his hitting has become a little predictable. 2018 saw Betts hit the lowest percentage of balls in his career to the opposite field (18%). Correspondingly, it also saw him get shifted again the most times in his career. In 2018 Betts saw as many plate appearances against the shift as he had in the rest of his career combined. Additionally, nearly 75% of those came in the last three and a bit months of the season. It will be fascinating to see if that trend continues into 2019.
On the plus side, Betts hit the ball so well in 2018 that he actually had a .375 batting average against the shift. However, if some of that exit velocity drops off then Betts could be a victim of the shift next season. Hopefully, both Betts and the Red Sox are aware of the situation and can adjust accordingly if an issue starts to arise.
The Final Expectations
Taking a look at the various different projections available for Betts on Fangraphs a clear patter begins to emerge. The general expectations are around 30 home runs, 25-30 stolen bases, a .300-.310 batting average and at least a combined 200 runs and RBI. They may not be quite as good as 2018, but they are more than good enough from one of your two marquee hitters.
Featured photo courtesy ofDavid Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
