Tag Archives: Pearce

Projecting the Opening Day Roster

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Based off of the quiet offseason Boston has had, many fans may think the transactions may be far from done. It is still possible that Dombrowski goes and resigns Craig Kimbrel, and it’s also possible he cooks up a trade to bring in a reliever. That aside, the roster is all but set. A couple guys are going to be fighting for jobs in March and that will be very interesting to watch. Without further ado, this is the best projection I have for what the 25 man roster might look like on April 9th vs. Toronto.

Catchers (2)

Christian Vazquez, Blake Swihart (starter in bold):

This is a three horse race for two jobs. Somehow Boston went all of 2018 with three catchers on their roster and it never really hurt them. They were never down a utility bat or a pitcher in the bullpen due to having three catchers, so they got away with it. 2019 won’t be the same case. Dombrowski has already said they want to make a move, with any of the three catchers available.

Sandy Leon is likely going to be the odd man out. If the Red Sox don’t find a suitor for him on the trade market, he’ll likely see himself cut before opening day. Personally, I would keep Leon to backup Vazquez (who’s bound to bounce back) and use Swihart as trade bait, but hey that’s just me.

Infielders (7)

Mitch Moreland, Steve Pearce, Dustin Pedroia, Brock Holt, Eduardo Nunez, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers:

This situation isn’t as cloudy as the one behind the dish. The left side of the infield is locked in. Raffy will look to make strides at third while Xander head into a contract year at short. Dustin Pedroia will start at second, barring any setbacks with his knee. If he isn’t good to go for opening day I would give Brock the nod over Nunez at second. Then we turn to first base where there isn’t one starter, as it’s more of a platoon situation. Mitch Moreland is my projected opening day starter, since Marcus Stroman is likely to start for Toronto and he’s a righty. Steve Pearce is more than capable to hit against righties, but will likely start the season facing mostly left-handed opponents.

Outfielders (3)

Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley Jr., Mookie Betts:

With J.D. essentially serving as the DH/fourth outfielder, the Red Sox will only carry three natural outfielders on their roster. This was the case in 2018, and worked better than anyone could have imagined. J.D. was able to fill in the outfield at various times to give some of these guys a day off here and there, and will look to do the same in 2019.

The key part for this outfield this season is how they all blossom. Can Mookie Betts repeat his MVP caliber season? Can JBJ find a consistent bat and carry over his success from October? Can Andrew Benintendi take the next step towards being an MVP candidate-type player?

Designated Hitter (1)

J.D. Martinez:

Unfortunately if you came here hoping to see Allen Craig, or Rusney Castillo, you are going to be highly disappointed. The only man for this job is Julio Daniel. Martinez had an MVP level season in 2018, and now has a chance to repeat it in 2019 and possibly opt out after this season. This will be a huge season on many fronts for future salaries for these Red Sox players and for the front office. Seeing if J.D. regresses or not is going to be a huge factor to whether he opts in or opts out following 2019. However, J.D. is the man, has a relentless approach, and is always trying to get better. I think he’s due for more of the same in 2018.

Rotation (5)

Chris Sale, David Price, Nathan Eovaldi, Rick Porcello, Eduardo Rodriguez:

The rotation for Boston is five deep. They are loaded and nobody seems to talk about it. Everyone wants to talk about Severino/Paxton/Tanaka in New York or Corbin/Scherzer/Strasburg in Washington. Both sets of trios are certainly worthy of being the best in baseball. As far as the entire rotation goes, Boston might take the cake. Sale, Price and Eovaldi are all legit studs at this point. Price and Eovaldi will likely carry over to 2019 the huge postseasons they had. You know exactly what you’re going to get from Rick Porcello, 190 innings and an ERA around 4. The biggest wild card is Eduardo Rodriguez. If he can finally stay healthy and put together a full season, he could really breakout as an All-Star caliber pitcher in this league.

Rodriguez

Bullpen (7)

Matt Barnes, Ryan Brasier, Brandon Workman, Heath Hembree, Steven Wright, Hector Velazquez, Brian Johnson:

This is the only segment of this article that can still drastically change. Not only are their outside factors still affecting it (Kimbrel, trade, etc.) but there also internal competitions. At least two pitchers who pitched a significant portion of innings in 2018 for Boston could be sent packing after Spring Training, possibly more if another external option joins the club.

Matt Barnes is a lock, and in this scenario, would be my choice for the closer. I’m still hopeful on Kimbrel coming back on a reasonable deal, but for now, Barnes in the ninth. The other locks, Brasier, Hembree, Wright and Johnson. Brasier is the Red Sox second best reliever as of right now. Hembree and Wright both showed their value at times last season, and have earned spots in the bullpen in 2019 barring injury. Brian Johnson is the lefty out in the pen, so I also believe he’s a lock to make this team.

Then we turn to a few names competing for two spots. Workman and Velazquez have the spots in my books, but Tyler Thornburg, Bobby Poyner, and Colten Brewer will also compete for those two jobs. A couple other names I’d keep on eye on, depending on their spring performance, Carson Smith, Marcus Walden, William Cuevas and the kid, Durbin Feltman.

If Craig Kimbrel were to sign, or another reliever was brought in, I believe Workman is the pitcher who gets pumped from this 25 man roster. A lot of things could change on this list, but for the most part this is what the roster is going to look like going into 2019. Looks fairly similar to a roster that didn’t do half bad in 2018.

Paul Goldschmidt – Future Red Sox player?

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The winter is in full swing in the baseball world. We’ve seen blockbusters already happening. From James Paxton, to Jean Segura to Robinson Cano, big names have already been on the move everywhere. The Red Sox more than likely won’t make an acquisition of that proportion, but let’s dream for a bit shall we? Paul Goldschmidt is going to be huge splash, wherever he lands. He’s an MVP caliber player, who’s on a benchwarmers salary next season. Seeing as it would only be a one year rental for Goldschmidt, the Sox may shy away from wanting to move multiple young pieces. However, as far as need and fit are concerned, this would be a great move for Boston to make while the championship window is still open.

With Arizona likely on its way towards a rebuild, many of their big names may be finding other homes. Patrick Corbin will leave via free agency, as the Diamondbacks just don’t have the payroll to keep him. Another aspect hurting the payroll, is Zack Grienke’s contract. They will also look to move him this winter. Which brings us to Goldschmidt. Possibly the most intriguing trade chip in all of baseball. Even Giancarlo Stanton on the market last season, reigning MVP, didn’t offer the pure hitting approach which Goldschmidt does. A career .300 hitter, with an OPS of .930, Goldschmidt is a guy who brings instant pop the lineup, and leadership the locker room.

So if Goldschmidt is on his way out of the desert, could the Red Sox make a viable run at his services for the next year? It’s definitely possible. Even with first base platooned by Steve Pearce and Mitch Moreland, this team clearly has a need for first baseman. Both Pearce and Moreland are solid players, who both played a big role in this year’s World Series. It’s hard not to get caught up in the lore of those two, and want to keep them in the lineup. The wise decision, would be to try and upgrade one position where they are subpar.

A Potential Package for Goldschmidt

Obviously, Goldschmidt would require a hefty haul to acquire. The Sox farm system is fairly depleted. However, with Goldschmidt essentially only coming over for one year, the return is worth parting with for Boston. It would have to start with Boston’s top hitting prospect Michael Chavis, and go from there. He is the most valuable asset the Red Sox have outside the major league club. He is also seen as a guy who could come up and hit .300 next season in the show. It would likely take Chavis and a couple other mid-level prospects to make the deal happen. A 14 million dollar tag on the incoming Goldschmidt still makes it possible for the Sox to function under the luxury tax.

Obviously, with a player of Paul’s caliber, there are many bidders. The Phillies, Astros, and Cardinals are just a handful of the teams that are in on Goldschmidt. All these teams are in positions to compete, and have deeper farm systems than Boston. This doesn’t make the deal impossible, it just means Dombrowski would have to act quick.

Do I see this deal happening? Probably not. Is it something that I would like to have happen? Yes, because frankly it should happen. It’s a low risk move that immediately improves the team, while still leaving money for other free agents like Joe Kelly or Nathan Eovaldi. He’s a power hitting first baseman, who is still athletic as ever and has pretty good wheels as far as people his size go. This would be a huge move that let’s the whole league know the Red Sox are still at the top.

Could Joe Kelly be the next Red Sox Closer?

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“I still feel like that’s where I’m gonna be for the rest of my career.” Joe Kelly’s recent comments have made it clear how he feels about Boston. Are the Red Sox going to grant him his wish of being with the team the remainder of his career? With Eduardo Nunez and Steve Pearce both locking themselves in with Boston for 2019, the money is starting to go on the books. Craig Kimbrel returning is seeming more unlikely by the day. So, going forward, the champs are going to need someone to hold down the back end of the bullpen. And I’m not saying Joe Kelly is the answer, but he’s definitely an admirable candidate.

Joe Kelly has firmly planted himself in Red Sox lore. From fighting Tyler Austin and the Yankees in April to pitching tough as nails in October, to dropping the puck at a Bruins game in November. Kelly has been endearing himself to the fans all season long, myself included. How can you not love this guy and the attitude he brings?

Admittedly, Kelly did struggle in the dog days of summer. Every time he came in the game, he was allowing inherited runners to score or giving up runs left, right and center. If he struggles like that in the ninth inning of games, in Boston, the seat will get hot real quick. So is it worth paying Kelly a good chunk of change to close out games? Personally, I think it’s a safe bet. He obviously won’t command the 4-5 years at 70+ million that Kimbrel likely will. This is huge for a Red Sox team who’s trying to make other moves.

Joe Kelly Has The Boston Mentality

He’s never been short of confidence. Having this persona, allows him to be a guy with the guts to get the job done in the tough moments. Closing out games in one of the biggest sports markets isn’t easy. It requires these aforementioned guts to get the job done. The light shines brighter than in almost any other city in America. Putting money in the wrong place for the man to fill the job could be costly.

Despite the temporary summer struggles, I’ll take the grit of Joe Kelly any day of the week. If he comes back it would almost certainly be as the closer. Many other teams in the league could use an upgrade at the position and likely could also pay more than Boston can. Selling Kelly on having the closer’s role would likely be a huge factor in pleasing Joe, and keeping him with the Red Sox for the foreseeable future.

There are other options on the table via trade and via free agency. If the Red Sox choose to spend their money in other ways, I could see Matt Barnes also taking over the reins. Whatever ends up happening, if Joe Kelly does in Boston it’ll be as the closer. After October, I think that should be a comfortable feeling.

 

One Huge Move the Sox Have to Make

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Well, we did it. The team we all knew would eventually flourish as champions, did. With the rings from 2018 secured, it is time for us all to start looking ahead at the possibility of repeating. There won’t be a huge roster overhaul, but there are some key players likely departing. For general manager Dave Dombrowski and the Red Sox, they’ll have to pick and choose who they want to move forward with, and who they’re okay with losing. Big names like Craig Kimbrel, Joe Kelly, Ian Kinsler and Steve Pearce all face pending free agency. There is a good chance one or two of those guys return but the likelihood of all four is bleak. There’s another big name from this championship winning team that I believe is the most crucial than any other in resigining.

Throughout the postseason, and into the World Series, there were many heroes for this team. On both sides of the ball, the stars to the bench players all played a role. One of the largest heroes that came from almost nowhere, ended up being Nathan Eovaldi. Whether it be a big start against New York or Houston, or a dominant effort out of the bullpen against Los Angeles, Eovaldi did it all this October. Every single time he came onto the mound, he effortlessly finessed through the brute opposing lineups.

A 1.61 ERA over 22 innings is a fairly good postseason if you ask me. No matter the scenario, Nate wanted the ball. He threw 97 pitches in game 3, and came in the next day begging manager Alex Cora to let him pitch out of the bullpen. This is a guy you want on your team no matter what, no matter the price. This is the guy that the front office needs to keep around. He has the attitude and mentality to pitch in Boston, and has already shown he has the clutch gene. Regardless of whether the team wants him as a starter or as a reliever, they must resign Eovaldi at all costs.

$$

A couple players come to mind that commanded contracts of similar length and value to what Eovaldi is bound to get. Alex Cobb was 30 last winter when Baltimore gave him a four year deal, with 57 million being earned over that contract. Tyler Chatwood was 28 last winter when he earned a 3 year, 38 million dollar deal with the Cubs. I see Eovaldi falling somewhere in in the mix with these players, possibly earning a little more than either simply due to his performance this October. Whether it is 3 or 4 years, it will end being around 15 million a year. To me, that’s a price you have to pay for a stud like Nasty Nate.

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Why David Price Has Earned Another Start

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Much has been made over the years, into this postseason, about David Price. It goes without saying that he hasn’t been Sandy Koufax or Madison Bumgarner in the playoffs. However, there were many elements of Sunday night’s start that provide us with signs that Price has turned a corner. For the first time in his career, his team won a game that he started. It goes deeper than that, from pitching out of jams to limiting damage.

Game Two:

Last night, David Price wasn’t perfect, but he was good enough. The walks were a little concerning, but the overall perseverance of Price was enough to earn him another start in a potential game six. The line isn’t gorgeous, four runs on four walks and five hits, but it did the trick. The bullpen did its job like I tried to tell you all before. The Sox won, which is obviously the priority, and Price showed progress in his ability to pitch in October.

Looking at the four runs, they came on two big hits. One came in the second off the bat of George Springer, and another in the third from Marwin Gonzalez. Both were strikes, yes, but neither were bad pitches by any means. Springer was able to swing inside out and just tuck one over Steve Pearce‘s head. With two outs in the inning, both runners were able to score easily, but that was an at-bat that easily could’ve gone Price’s way. When it comes to the Gonzalez home run, again, it wasn’t a bad pitch at all. In fact, the entire at-bat was well calculated and executed. The Astros slugger was just able to get his hands around on a tough pitch up and in and he drove it. Neither pitch that was costing of runs was a bad pitch, just a better swing.

Looking Ahead to Price in Game 6:

So, with everything considered, I believe Price actually pitched very well. If it were anybody else besides Gonzalez that came to the plate in the fifth, he would’ve stayed in the game. In all likelihood, he would’ve been in position for his first career postseason win as a starter. Alex Cora made the right decision matchup-wise, but David’s stuff was good enough for him to pitch another inning.

Going forward, Price deserves another start and he will deliver in the said start. He was very reliant on his fastball and seemed to shy away from the changeup. If he can gain some traction when it comes to throwing that changeup, he could really stifle this gritty Astros lineup. Barring a three-game sweep of the games in Houston, Price will start the biggest game of his career, a game six at Fenway Park in an elimination game. David Price has earned it, and he will come through again for this team.

Call-ups for the Red Sox in 2019

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The minor league season is over for the Red Sox, so the focus turns to next year for the prospects. There were risers and fallers in the system, but some of them could be on the major league team next year. The most likely call-ups are Michael Chavis, Travis Lakins, Durbin Feltman, and Bobby Dalbec.

Michael Chavis

Coming into the year, Chavis was the best prospect in the organization. An 80 game suspension for PEDs set him back, but Chavis raked when he came back. The 23-year old spent the bulk of the year in Double-A Portland and hit .303 with six home runs in 33 games there. The third baseman was promoted to Triple-A Pawtucket and hit .273 in just eight games there. When Bobby Dalbec and Chavis were on the same team, Chavis moved to first base. Steve Pearce is a free agent and Mitch Moreland is under contract for next year, so the Red Sox will have to make some decisions with that. Also, moving Rafael Devers, who struggled at third, to first base, has been talked about. This would open the door for Chavis to be the opening day third baseman next year.

Baseball Commissioner Bud Selig, right, poses with shortstop Michael Chavis from Sprayberry Senior High School in Marietta, Ga., at the 2014 MLB baseball draft Thursday, June 5, 2014, in Secaucus, N.J. Chavis was selected by the Boston Red Sox with the 26th pick in the first round. (AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)

Lakins and Feltman

Travis Lakins got off to a rough start in his Red Sox career, but do not let his 4.42 career ERA fool you. His career was revived when he moved to the bullpen. Lakins was moved to bullpen full time when he was promoted from Portland to Pawtucket and did not disappoint. The righty posted a 1.65 ERA in ten appearances with Pawtucket, picking up two saves.

Durbin Feltman was drafted just a few months ago and has been very impressive already. It only took him four games in which he did not give up a run to be promoted to Greenville. Feltman posted a 2.57 ERA in seven games with Greenville then was promoted to Salem. He was good again in Salem, posting a 2.19 ERA in eleven games. All in all, Feltman had a 1.93 ERA in 22 games this season. The bullpen is obviously the biggest need for the Red Sox, so Feltman and Lakins could be the biggest pieces in the farm system.

 

Bobby Dalbec

Despite having a decent average, Dalbec makes up for that with walks and home runs. His on-base percentage is .361 which is up about 100 points from his .257 average. Dalbec showed his power this year, hitting 32 home runs in just 129 games with Portland and Salem. Dalbec fits today’s game because nobody really cares about hits and it’s all about getting on base and hitting the long ball. As I mentioned, the Red Sox have a hot corner conundrum. If Devers and Chavis are on the roster, Dalbec may have a tough time getting playing time. He has played third base his entire career so the Red Sox would have to change something to get him playing time.

Photo by Peter Aiken

Bottom Line

Right now, the Red Sox have one of the worst farm systems in the league. However, I still believe that they have great potential and are on the rise. Dombrowski has drafted well since he was hired, and some of the 2018 picks are off to a hot start. They have also gotten unlucky because there top three prospects (Chavis, Groome, Casas) were all suspended or injured at some point this season.