Tag Archives: playoffs

LeBron Knows the Answer to the Big Question About Kyrie

“…I don’t have any advice for him now. I got no advice for him or any other people that’s on any other team. Noooo.. Listen man we trying to win a championship here, I don’t have time to give advice to other guys…”

LeBron seemed sincere in his opening press conference for the season, and it’s a fair point to not want to help players that aren’t helping you win a championship. The thing is, LeBron has been giving advice to all kinds of young players in a very public manner after games. We saw it with Lonzo Ball. The very next game against the Jazz we saw him and Dwayne Wade pull another rookie, Donovan Mitchell, aside and give him a short lecture. You might remember last year when he did the same thing with a rookie Jaylen Brown.

So, why does he have nothing left for Kyrie?

KYRIE IS READY

The answer is simple: he knows Kyrie is ready to win without him. He’s already given his former protegé more than he would like the leader of a serious contender to have. Kyrie is no wide-eyed rookie. Still, LeBron has established himself as a “big brother” of sorts for young players around the league. The two have built a bond together. Now, he doesn’t have anything left to say to Kyrie. He can act like it’s everyone, but it’s not. It’s just guys he sees as a threat to his legacy, and that list now includes Kyrie Irving. His explanation of why he has nothing left for Kyrie seems inaccurate and pointed. If you ask me, he is legitimately worried about Irving and the Boston Celtics.

“…The only thing I’m upset about is he took a lot of the DNA and the blueprint to Boston.”

LeBron has been to 7 straight NBA Finals. He knows what it takes to get there. He also knows Kyrie Irving knows what it takes to get there. Kyrie Irving is ready to be the #1 guy. LeBron may have been ready to give him the keys, as he said in his preseason interview. But Kyrie was tired of riding in the backseat. So he went out and found himself his own car. One that he could drive. And one that has yet to reach its top speed.

KYRIE VS LEBRON ON THE BIG STAGE

The Celtics are still a work in progress. They have cooled off a bit since their 16 game win streak at the beginning of the season, but they are still an obvious force. Even without Hayward, the general consensus is that there will be an Eastern Conference Finals rematch between the Cavs and Celtics. The biggest difference this time around would be the size of the storylines.

Kyrie will be trying to put the last stamp of approval needed to validate his move to Boston. Maybe more accurately, out of Cleveland. It would be truly epic to see Kyrie take down LeBron and end his Finals reign. Instead of LeBron handing Kyrie the keys, Kyrie will be looking to take them from him, head to head. We could see these teams clash in the playoffs for years to come. It seems inevitable the Celtics take the crown and reach the Finals.

THE MAKINGS OF A TRUE RIVALRY

For Celtics fans, perhaps watching Isaiah Thomas try to exact revenge on his old team and new rival will be the hardest thing to watch. It is tough not to root for this guy. It is tough to realize he could be heavily responsible for ending the Celtics’ season.

It would also be the 2nd year in the row the two play in the ECF, and could mark the start of a true rivalry. The Celtics are getting better every year and will soon be the favorites in the East. But until somebody knocks him off, LeBron holds the key to the Finals. As long as he is in Cleveland, they will be a force in the playoffs.

Eventually, there will be a team that comes along and beats LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers. Most would agree that team will most likely be the Boston Celtics. Even if LeBron isn’t willing to give Kyrie any more advice. Kyrie has everything he needs to succeed. Who knows, maybe we’ll see LeBron give the rookie Jayson Tatum some love Wednesday after the game. Or, maybe he’ll see him as a member of a team that is a serious threat to his championship aspirations and stay far, far away.

NFL Wild Card Round Preview and Predictions

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The 2017 NFL Postseason is finally upon us. This weekend teams will take their first crucial step on their journey to Super Bowl LII. These past seventeen weeks have earned these teams the right to play in January, while the rest clean out their lockers early. In this year’s playoffs there are a few familiar faces but mostly new contenders. The Patriots, Steelers, Falcons, and Chiefs are the only four teams making it back to the postseason after appearing last year. On the flip-side, the Rams, Bills, Jaguars, and Saints are all teams that had losing records last season and are now in the playoffs. This will surely be a dramatic postseason this year, starting with these eight teams that will face off in the Wild Card round this weekend:

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs

The Titans had a quiet season but clinched the fifth seed in the waning moments of Week 17. At 9-7, they snuck into the playoffs for the first time since 2008. Their path to the postseason was almost squashed towards the end of the season as they dropped three of their last four games. However, a Week 17 win against their division rival Jaguars was all they needed to secure a spot to play in January.

The Titans are one of the few teams in the league that base their offensive solely on running the ball. Their running back committee of DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry carried the offense throughout the season as Marcus Mariota had a rather mundane year. With DeMarco Murray suffering a Grade 3 MCL tear in Week 16, Henry became a workhorse for the Titans against the Jaguars yesterday. Murray’s status seems bleak to make a return for the Wild Card, so coach Mike Mularkey will need to reconfigure his offensive scheme.

At the beginning of the season the Chiefs seemed to be the most dominant team in the league. They trounced the Patriots in Foxborough on opening night in September and went on to have a blaring 5-0 start. However they learned quickly that a NFL season is a marathon, not a sprint. From Weeks 6 to 13 the Chiefs only won a single game. They were able to hold on afterwards by winning out their final four games to secure a 10-6 record and a AFC West title. Their only trouble in the division came from the Chargers, who finished the season looming one game behind.

The Chiefs are without a doubt the fastest team in the league. Their offense consists of the speedy Tyreek Hill, rookie sensation Kareem Hunt, and widely overlooked quarterback Alex Smith. On the opposite end of the field they have talent with Marcus Peters, Reggie Ragland, Justin Houston, and the list goes on and on.

In the playoffs which Chiefs team will we see? The team that stomped New England or the one that had a meltdown in the fourth quarter to set up an ugly loss against the Jets? Andy Reid and the Chiefs’ coaching staff control their team’s future in January. The Titans might be the underdog in this game coming into Arrowhead, but if they can silence the crowd early they have a chance to pull an upset. Their run defense can stop Kareem Hunt at the line of scrimmage, but they do not have an answer for Kansas City’s air attack.

Prediction: 24-16 Chiefs

Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams

The Falcons secured the sixth seed in the NFC through their win-and-in scenario in Week 17. They had an inconsistent season to say the least. The highlight of their season came in Week 2 when they were able to stomp the Packers in the Georgia Dome’s inaugural game. However two weeks later they began to slide, losing three consecutive games in their trip through the AFC East. The Falcons were lost in their prime-time Super Bowl rematch against the Patriots.

At 10-6, they are certainly not the team that went for its first Super Bowl trophy almost a year ago. That doesn’t mean that they can’t play like the team that they were. Matt Ryan will have some slack to pick up with his offense to get things done. Their defense, ranked 23rd in the regular season, will be the focal point in order to succeed in the playoffs.

The Rams have had the one of the most dramatic transitions from last season to today. Their metamorphosis from a 4-12 joke last season to 11-5 NFC West champion now can be accredited to their new coach Sean McVay. The team’s identity lies within their striking offense that consists of MVP candidate Todd Gurley and legitimate franchise quarterback Jared Goff. Wade Phillips has also helped the team’s defense become top five in the league. The team aims to get their first playoff win since 2004.

This match-up will in no way be a blowout on either end. The Falcons might be held to harsh comparisons with their Super Bowl-aspiring selves from last year, but they still know how to get a win. Their offense might not be as electrifying as it was with Kyle Shanahan as their coordinator, but they still have the three-headed dragon of Matt Ryan, Devonta Freeman, and Julio Jones. This game will come down to which defense will let up first, and ranking-wise all signs point to Atlanta’s. Expect this game to be a shootout.

Prediction: 31-21 Rams

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars

The New Year’s celebration started earlier than most for the Bills. A late touchdown from Andy Dalton and the Bengals was enough to knock the Ravens out of the playoffs. The Bills ended the longest playoff drought in American sports, not making the playoffs since 1999. They will also aim to win a playoff game for the first time since 1995.

Nobody was bigger Bengals fans yesterday than Bills players (via stephenhauschka4/Instagram) https://t.co/oJZZhybhj7

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) January 1, 2018

After a 9-7 season, the Bills deserved a playoff spot. Coach Sean McDermott reshaped the team into playoff contenders after his failed experiment with starting Nathan Peterman. The team’s success comes from LeSean McCoy, who suffered an ankle injury in Week 17. Being without him will hurt, but the Bills’ synergy can hold the team together.

The Jaguars are another team that have had a mammoth reshaping to make them a playoff squad. On a side note, not to brag or anything but I called it back in August that they’d clinch. Without Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns, the offense was able to run on the shoulders of rookie Leonard Fournette. The Jaguars’ defense has been the staple of the team, dubbing their city as Sacksonville. They are one of the most dangerous defenses to face this season. Blake Bortles, though inconsistent, was able to put together an admirable finishing push to the season to achieve the AFC South title and the third seed. The last time the team finished with a 10 win season was in 2007, coincidentally the last time they appeared in the playoffs.

Though the Bills slipped into the playoffs this game certainly won’t be easy for the Jags. Both teams have strong defenses and rather weak offenses. The key to this game is how Leonard Fournette performs for the Jaguars. The Bills’ rushing defense had a nightmare game against the Saints, but since then has improved. If Blake Bortles is forced to go to the air then the Jaguars’ chances to win almost deplete. If there is going to be an upset in the Wild Card round, it’d be here.

Prediction: 17-15 Bills

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints

The Panthers had a solid bounce-back season from last year’s nightmare. Finishing 11-5, they very well have the power to make a run. This is another case of a two-faced team, however. The Panthers came up big when they needed to, and a prime example of this is bullying the Packers at home. However, there were games this season where they looked lost. If Cam Newton is rolling, then the defense follows in suit. Christian McCaffrey has helped Cam’s game open up this season, whereas compared to last season he had no chance to be mobile. A good mobile quarterback must be accompanied by a viable running back to keep the defense guessing. That’s something that the Panthers lacked last season.

The Saints’ season started out ugly early on. Their offense was erratic and while having the parts to succeed simply couldn’t. Moving Adrian Peterson was the Saints’ defining move this season. Quickly afterwards the running back committee shortened to focus on Mark Ingram and rookie Alvin Kamara. From there the duo hasn’t stopped shining, and in turn opened up Drew Brees’s passing game. The Saints have one of the best offenses in the league, and were able to build a solid defense after trading Brandin Cooks for assets to do so. The Saints also finished 11-5, but clinched the division after the Panthers fell to the Falcons in Week 17.

This game will be perfect to watch for anyone who loves offense. The defining factor is that the Panthers lost to the Saints twice already this season. In both of those games the Saints scored more than thirty points. The Panthers need to stay at that scoring pace or their defense will have to play like they did against Aaron Rodgers a few weeks ago.

Prediction: 41-28 Saints

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2017 Red Sox Report Card

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We shouldn’t be upset that the 2017 Red Sox season is over. Certainly it would have been nice to get past Houston and into the ALCS. We might even hope to hit a little lightning in a bottle, beat the Tribe and make it to the World Series.

As any smart baseball observer knew long ago, this wasn’t a great Boston team (see here). It was constructed poorly, managed poorly, and it performed poorly against baseballs best teams. Frankly, if you look at it through the commonly accepted five-tools of baseball, the 2017 Sox actually over achieved.

Tool 1: Hitting For Average (C)

After posting a league-leading team batting average of .282 last year, the Sox dropped to the middle of the pack this year at .258. Losing Ortiz (.315 in 2016) hurt. What hurt more was the precipitous drop from Betts, Bogaerts and Bradley, and Ramirez – each batted at least 21 points below their 2016 average. Most troubling, as something we pointed out here, was Mookie’s fall from .318 last season to .264 this year.

Tool 2: Hitting For Power (F)

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This year’s squad had all the pop of a softball team after finishing off the keg. In 2016 the Sox lead all 30 MLB teams in Slugging Percentage at .461. This year they finished 26^th with a team slugging percentage of .407. For perspective, the Phillies slugged .409. They won 66 games.

The Sox hit only 168 home runs, good for 27^th in the league. Papi’s absence again loomed large – 38 HRs and 127 RBIs in 2016. Again, more important was the decline in everyone else’s performance. Hanley hit seven fewer bombs and 49 fewer RBIs. Forty-nine.

Tool 3: Base Running (D)

Do we really even need to discuss this? The Sox were horrible on the base paths this year. Every night there was a new train wreck at home plate as the slowest players on the team were gunned down by five steps. Or, someone made a mistake and was doubled-up on what should have only been a routine fielder’s choice.

The only reason Base Running isn’t an “F” for the year is that with their team speed, the Sox managed 106 stolen bases (6^th in MLB) and were caught only 31 times (13^th). That’s what is so frustrating about this squad. With their speed, they should have been great running the bases.

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Skipper John Farrell dismissed the Sox ineptitude on the bases, insisting the obscene number of outs was the result of an aggressive philosophy. That might be partly true, but the decision to send someone like Sandy Leon or Mitch Moreland home on a shallow fly isn’t being “aggressive” it’s being stupid. They were stupid a lot this year.

Tool 4: Throwing/Pitching (B+)

For all the Pedro-like excitement for Chris Sale’s starts this season, he really was pretty awful when we needed him most. As discussed previously (here), in the second half of the year he dominated the worst teams and was dominated by the best. He finished with career highs in both innings (214.1) and K’s (308) – and that might have been part of the problem. He looked tired down the stretch and gave up a ton of home runs.

As good as Sale was at times, Porcello was equally bad. Leading the league in losses (17), runs (125), and home runs allowed (38), Pretty Ricky was ugly in 2017. But, besides Sale and Porcello, team pitching was essentially the same this year as last year. This year’s staff managed a nearly identical WHIP and BAA (Batting Average Against) as last year in 43 more innings pitched. Given how poorly the team hit this year, the pitching deserves the bulk of the credit for winning the division.

Tool 5: Fielding (D)

Can we get a list of volunteers to hit grounders to the infield this off season? After committing only 75 errors in 2016 (3^rd best in baseball), this year’s squad committed 107 (7^th worst).

Devers adjustment at third base was certainly a factor. He committed 14 errors in 58 games. He’s young, he’ll improve. Bogaerts led the team with 17 errors in 2017, five more than in 2016 (in 10 fewer chances). Just like at the plate, he’s regressing in the field.

Final Grade (C)

My kids like to tell me that a “C” on their report card is “average”… as if that’s acceptable. It is not. Certainly not for a team with a $200M payroll. It is revealing that a team as demonstrably average as the 2017 Red Sox can, not only make the playoffs, but win the division. It should make everyone understand how important pitching is to success.

Where to Go From Here

We’ve said for months that the 2017 Red Sox were a deeply flawed team. They have talent, but not enough. They lack power and they commit too many unforced errors in the field and on the bases. That’s a coaching issue.

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Chili Davis is simply not getting it done as a hitting coach. It’s easy to look good with David Ortiz compensating for team power numbers, but the regression of the core members of this franchise’s future can’t continue.

Base coaches Butterfield (3B) and Amaro (1B) need to be held responsible for the ridiculous performance on the base paths. No team with as much speed and experience as the Sox should look so clueless every night.

It is hard to justify firing a manager who just won consecutive division titles and won a World Series only four years ago, but changes must be made in the coaching staff.

Hot Date in Houston for the Sox

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Red Sox seek redemption in the 2017 ALDS

Well the Sox just ended the regular season with a four-game series against the Houston Astros. Houston grabbed three of four from the Sox in Fenway. Now, starting Thursday at 4 pm ET, these two clubs meet again for at least three more contests in the ALDS. The Astros won this years season series 4-3 and outscored Boston 35-22 in those seven games. Houston may appear to have an edge, but we all know the MLB playoffs are a crap-shoot.

Houston certainly has the better offense, ranking first in the AL in runs scored with 896. Boston scored 785, not nearly as many as Houston, but still good for sixth in the AL. The Red Sox pitching staff has an edge over Houston with the team ERA for the year standing at 3.70. Houston’s team ERA stands significantly higher at 4.12. While both teams have similarly talented starting rotations, the pitching advantage for Boston comes from their phenomenal bullpen. The Sox ranked 2nd in the majors this year with a 3.15 bullpen ERA. Houston’s bullpen was far worse, with a 4.27 ERA which ranked them 17th in the majors.

ALDS Game 1- Sale vs Verlander

Mouths water over this exquisite pitching match up. Sale and Verlander are undoubtedly two of the very best pitchers in baseball. Sale has the better ERA (2.90) but Verlander comes into the playoffs as one of the hottest pitchers in baseball. The Sox lefty threw an MLB-leading 214.1 innings this year. Verlander racked up the innings as well with 206. It appears Verlander may have handled the physical stress a little better, as his performance improved as the season went on. For Sale, it was the opposite. He seemed unhittable until the end of the season when his numbers started to fall off. Sale’s ERA over the last month of the season was 3.72, not great for his standards, but still pretty solid. He was under a lot of scrutiny for his poor performance but he actually allowed 0 ER in three of his final six starts. As I mentioned, Sale lead the entire league in innings pitched. So his poor late-season numbers were likely a result of fatigue. He last pitched on September 26th, so he should be plenty rested come Thursday’s series opener.

Verlander Finishes Strong

Verlander also put together an exceptional year, but very unlike Sale’s season. Houston’s new ace had a rough start to the season with a pre-all star break ERA an uncharacteristic 4.73. This may have had something to do with being on one of the worst teams in baseball (Detroit Tigers). As expected, Verlander was much improved in the second half, posting a 1.95 ERA after the All Star break. He was especially exceptional in the last month of the season, earning five quality starts in as many tries and posted a 1.06 ERA to go along with a 0.65 WHIP. Verlander’s main advantage in this match up is experience. He has 16 career post season starts and Sale has none. Verlander is 7-5 with a with a 3.39 ERA in his post season career. expect game one to be a low scoring affair despite the high powered offenses.

ALDS Game 2- Pomeranz vs Keuchel

Another great pitching match up here in game two. Many teams around the league would love to have Pomeranz or Keuchel serving as a backup to their ace. Pomeranz has put together a career year posting a 3.32 ERA on the season. A reason for concern for the Sox is that the Astros Lineup is stacked full of great right handed hitters. Houston’s lineup features the league batting title champ (Jose Altuve), Carlos Correa, George Springer, Alex Bregman and Yuliesky Gurriel, all righ- handed batters. However, Pomeranz has handled them well this year. In two starts Pomeranz has thrown 12.1 innings while allowing just seven hits and two ER. Houston batters are hitting only .245 with just eight extra base hits in 102 at bats vs Drew. Boston will need this display of dominance from Drew if they want the win.

Like Sale, Keuchel was scorching hot to start the season, going 9-0 with a 1.67 ERA. Unfortunately for Houston, Keuchel found himself on the DL in June due to a neck injury. He returned in July and struggled mightily, posting a 5.05 ERA in six starts. However, Keuchel did seem to find his groove in August as he went 3-2 with a 2.87 ERA. The bearded lefty seems healthy and locked in as we enter the ALDS. Prepare for another low scoring game in game two.

ALDS Game 3- Morton vs Porcello?

The official pitching match ups have not been posted but this is who I imagine game three will feature. The third post-season starter position for the Red Sox is up for grabs between Doug Fister, Eduardo Rodriguez and Rick Porcello. I believe Porcello is the best option, despite having a disappointing year after winning the 2016 AL CY Young. I am ruling Doug Fister out of the equation due to a horrific final month which he had an ERA of 6.85. While E-Rod has slightly better numbers than Porcello this year, the difference is not enough to overcome his lack of experience. Porcello has certainly not lived up to expectations, but his numbers are skewed by some really poor starts. The quality starts are still there, but the bad ones have just been really bad. Rick has thrown at least 6 innings in 26 of his 33 starts. He has allowed three ER or fewer in 19 starts this year and even has two complete games. If the good version of Porcello shows up for the Red Sox then they have a clear advantage here in game three. Veteran Charlie Morton has put together a career year for Houston in his 10th year in the league. Morton has won 14 games and has an ERA of 3.62. I am leaning towards Houston electing Morton due to his impressive final month which he posted an ERA of 2.54 in 28.1 innings of work. This match up will really come down to Porcello pitching to his potential and keeping his sinker down in the zone.

*Follow me on twitter @MLBfromNH (Kevin Civiello)*

Astros-Red Sox Positional Breakdown

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On Thursday the Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox will start the best-of-five ALDS series. These two teams closed their regular seasons facing each other, so they had plenty of time to get acquainted. This series means a little more of course, and the two teams will pull out all stops to try and advance. Which team has the advantage at each position?

Starting Pitching

Justin Verlander #35 of the Houston Astros throws against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Park in Arlington on September 27, 2017 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

The Astros’ trade for Justin Verlander right before the waiver deadline has shored up their rotation. After a sub .500 month of August, people doubted the Astros’ legitimacy as a World Series contender. Behind Dallas Keuchel, their rotation had question marks. Lance McCullers got hurt after a hot start and hadn’t been pitching well since. Then Verlander arrived. Verlander went 5-0 with a 1.06 ERA for the Astros and they bounced back to go 21-8 from there on out. With Verlander and Keuchel at the front, the Astros have two aces. McCullers has been struggling, but Brad Peacock has had an excellent season for them, winning 13 games with an ERA of 3.00 and 11 strikeouts per nine. He would seem to be a fine option to slot in at number three.

The Red Sox have a Cy Young candidate in Chris Sale at the top. Following him is Drew Pomeranz, who somewhat quietly has put himself in a position for a potential top five finish in the Cy Young vote himself. Beyond that, though, the Red Sox have many questions. No one is quite sure yet who will be their #3 or 4 starters, and none of the options are altogether appealing.

Advantage: Astros

Bullpen

The Astros are strong at the back end of their bullpen, but if forced to dip into the pen earlier in games they could face issues. Closer Ken Giles is excellent, and Chris Devenski had a heck of a year for them striking out 100 batters. Will Harris is another excellent reliever for them, posting an ERA under 3.00 for the third consecutive season. No one else is reliable though. Their next best reliever, Luke Gregerson, had an ERA of 4.57.

The Red Sox bullpen is strong, and rather deep with options. It features Craig Kimbrel, possibly the best closer in the game. Kimbrel struck out 126 of 254 batters faced this season! He’ll be setup by Addison Reed, and possibly Joe Kelly and Carson Smith. Those are some solid pitchers, maybe not quite as good as the Astros setup men, but good. After that, the Red Sox depth shows much better. They have many quality options for relievers to make the roster, unlike the Astros whose fourth best wouldn’t make the Red Sox roster.

Advantage: Red Sox

Craig Kimbrel #46 of the Boston Red Sox reacts after beating the Houston Astros and winning the AL East Division at Fenway Park on September 30, 2017 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Omar Rawlings/Getty Images)

Catcher

The two teams differ quite a bit at catcher. The Astros will pretty much just feature Brian McCann, while the Red Sox have two catchers in Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon who should both get playing time. McCann is a low-batting-average hitter with good pop, whereas the Sox have Vazquez who batted .290 but with just five home runs. On the defensive side they are even more different. McCann is one of the worst defensive catchers in the league, who only threw out eight of 62 would-be base stealers. That 13% caught stealing rate pales in comparison to Christian Vazquez’ 42% and Sandy Leon’s 37% clip. Vazquez and Leon combined to throw out 39 base runners.

Advantage: Red Sox

First Base

The Astros have highly touted Cuban import Yuli Gurriel playing first. Gurriel had a nice first full season in the Majors, batting .299 with 18 homers and 43 doubles. He actually batted over .300 in every month except for May.

The Red Sox’ Mitch Moreland batted only .246, but thanks to his ability to draw walks, his .326 on base percentage is actually only six points behind Gurriel’s. He out- homered Gurriel 22-18, but his slugging percentage still lags behind. Moreland is probably better with the glove, having committed just five errors after winning the Gold Glove last season, but it’s not enough to make up the difference.

Advantage: Astros

Second Base

Jose Altuve #27 of the Houston Astros bats during a game against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on September 13, 2017 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

Dustin Pedroia is a high contact, good average hitter who is also an excellent defender. As much as I love Pedey, this is no contest.

Jose Altuve led the league with 204 base hits, becoming the first player ever to lead his league in hits in four straight seasons, collecting 200+ in each of them. Altuve came in third in the MVP vote a year ago and has a strong case for winning it this season. He led the league in hitting with a .346 average, while also popping 24 homers despite being 5’6″. Oh, he also stole 32 bases and missed reaching 40 doubles for the fourth consecutive year by just one double. He is one of the absolute best players in the league.

Advantage: Astros

Third Base

This is a fascinating match up. Both teams have a very good, young player at the position. Alex Bregman was the second overall pick in the 2015 draft and made the Majors by the next year. This year he batted .284 with 19 home runs and an .827 OPS.

Red Sox Rafael Devers has long been considered one of the highest upside players in the minor leagues, and he’s still only 20! In 58 games Devers matched Bregman’s .284 batting average while cracking 10 homers and posting an .819 OPS. Their numbers are almost identical and both are very highly touted.

Advantage: Push

Shortstop

Carlos Correa had been a fine shortstop his first two years, winning Rookie of the Year in 2015 and hitting 20 homers in both seasons. He took a step forward this year though, showing he could contend for best shortstop in baseball for many years to come. Correa batted .315 with an excellent .941 OPS this season.

As for the Red Sox, they have a very talented shortstop in Xander Bogaerts, but one who is maddeningly inconsistent. Bogaerts had a fantastic first half last season, only to fall way off in the second half. This year he again started hot before cooling off. At seasons end he had only batted .273 with 10 home runs while also making numerous baserunning mistakes. This is no contest.

Advantage: Astros

Left Field

The Astros have a variety of guys they play here, and Marwin Gonzalez may be the one they use. He has played all over however, and like Eduardo Nunez for the Sox, could be used in a variety of places. Cameron Maybin was aquired from the Angels to play outfield. He is adept at stealing bases, but his hitting prowess leaves something to be desired.

The Sox have a rookie to get excited about for years to come in Benny Biceps. He might not be as good now as he will be, but he is still a very good player already. Benintendi hit 20 home runs and stole 20 bases this season, the first rookie left fielder to accomplish that since Barry Bonds 30 years ago.

#RedSox Andrew Benintendi is the youngest left fielder with at least 20 homers and 20 stolen bases in a season since Barry Bonds in 1987.

— Ryan M. Spaeder (@theaceofspaeder) September 30, 2017

Advantage: Red Sox

Center Field

The Red Sox will usually have the advantage in the field here. Jackie Bradley is a wonderful defensive outfielder, routinely making spectacular throws and catches. He isn’t bad with the bat either, a bit inconsistent, but he gets the job done.

The Astros though have George Springer, a guy who hit 34 home runs this year. Springer also batted .283, showing he isn’t just a power hitter. His .889 OPS dwarfs Bradley’s .726 mark.

Advantage: Astros

Right Field

The Astros play former Red Sox Josh Reddick in right field, and he actually had one of his best seasons. Somehow, Josh Reddick batted .314 this year; not sure where that came from. Despite a down year from Mookie Betts, this isn’t really a contest. Betts almost won the MVP last year and is a very good fielder to boot. He hit 46 doubles this year and drove in 102 runners. His season may have left a bit to be desired, but the talent difference between these two is rather large.

Advantage: Red Sox

Mookie Betts #30 of the Boston Red Sox reacts as he rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run during the seventh inning of a game against the Houston Astros on September 30, 2017 at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images)

Designated Hitter

Hanley Ramirez had a very disappointing follow up to his 2016 campaign, reverting back to the guy we saw in 2015 who swings wildly for the fences in every at bat. He only hit .242 and killed many rallies. He did manage to hit 23 home runs though, which is more than we can say for the Astros’ Carlos Beltran. Beltran, showing all of his 40 years, batted just .231 with 14 home runs and a devilish .666 OPS.

Advantage: Red Sox

Utility

I’m making a utility spot for the aforementioned Marwin Gonzalez and Eduardo Nunez. Both will probably play in more games than they won’t…if Nunez is healthy that is. Marwin Gonzalez had an out-of-nowhere breakout season. He batted .303 with 23 homers and 90 RBI this season, by far his best season to date. Nunez really helped kick start the Red Sox lineup after being acquired from the Giants, batting .321 with 8 home runs and a near .900 OPS for the Red Sox. Nunez’ Red Sox numbers extrapolated over a season would be similar to what Gonzalez has done, but is he healthy?

Slight Advantage: Astros

Final Analysis

So the final breakdown totals come to five advantages for the Astros, five advantages for the Red Sox, and two pushes. These teams are looking pretty even when it comes to which team has the advantage at each position. The Astros did win 99 games to the Red Sox 93 and finished the year stronger. They also have home field, so the overall advantage would have to go slightly to them, but this could be a good ALDS matchup. Sit back, watch, and hopefully enjoy.

Realistic Expectations for 2017-2018 Season

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BASKETBALL SEASON IS UPON US

Training camp is less than a week away and the basketball junkies are coming out of hibernation. Soon enough, a clearer picture of what we can expect the Celtics to look like will start to show itself. So, you’re probably expecting a post about how the Celtics are going to go all the way this year, right?!?

Well, this is the part where I tell you to temper expectations just a little bit. It’s an exciting time to be a Celtics fan, but moreover a fan of the NBA in general. A lot of teams have a similar buzz around them. The Celtics might have a tough time shining the brightest in the 2018 Playoffs. Even if they eclipse their previous high-water mark for the fourth consecutive year and reach the NBA Finals, a juggernaut will await. It won’t be a cake walk.

I wrote an article about how this team shouldn’t have any problems hitting the ground running, and I stick to that. We should see some amazing basketball out of the Celtics this year. Furthermore, I don’t think they’ll have many problems with team chemistry. This group of guys just seem to mesh together already; it’s the perfect mixture of skill sets ready to complement one another. Add in some colorful personalities to taste, and it smells like a recipe for success. The things I think will hold this team back initially all share a common thread – inexperience.

ON YOUR MARK…

Most of the players we had that gained playoff experience in the past few years are gone. Sure, Kyrie won a championship and should be a leader of the Celtics in time. Can we really expect a 25-year-old to lead even younger guys to the top of the NBA in less than a year, though? Stevens and Hayward have been to the championship stage before together in college but didn’t win. Horford won in college and should step further into a leadership role. All things considered, the reality is this team needs more experience before being catapulted into the history books.

Even further, they simply lack experience in terms of player age. Let’s face it: this is one of the youngest teams in the NBA. They will be relying on first- and second-year players making a big impact if they want to make a deep playoff run. Jaylen Brown did get meaningful PT last year in the playoffs. He was on the floor frequently in the ECF and was even tasked with guarding Lebron James at times. Jayson Tatum very well might be the best rookie in his class. And fellow rook “The Terminator” Semi Ojeleye might just contribute immediately on defense as Brad Stevens indicates. Regardless, this is a team with five rookies on guaranteed deals and 10 players 25 years of age or younger.

PLANT THE SEEDS AND WATCH THEM GROW

This team to me is complete. When I say that, I mean I don’t think they really need to add anything major to compete for championships. The biggest thing that is going to help them reach another level is organic growth in the coming years. The young stars, Jaylen and Jayson, need to continue to improve. Hopefully one or both will be ready for crucial starting roles within a couple years. The other rookies need to find ways to contribute as well, and the younger guards that have been here (Smart and Rozier) need to start showing leadership and growth.

Even the players at the top of the lineup are still getting better in Irving and Hayward. The only player that seems to have reached his peak playing level is Horford, and he still has some great years ahead of him. The dynamic of this team is exciting, but there are a lot of moving parts here. Only time will tell if they are all moving in the same direction.

BUELLER… BUELLER…..

So where will this team get its leadership? Kyrie will be expected to take on that role, and he seems ready for the challenge. Al Horford will be another guy the Celtics will lean on heavily this season to keep everybody focused on the goal of winning a championship, something he did twice in college at Florida. He is the oldest and most experienced player on the team at 31 with 10 years of NBA experience. Together these two have 144 playoff games good for 143 starts. But when you take them out of the equation, the situation is pretty grim; the rest of the team has a combined total of 114 playoff games under their belt, good for just 27 starts.

PLAYOFFS? WE TALKIN’ BOUT PLAYOFFS??

Getting down to brass tacks, I see this team finishing as the number-one seed in the East again, with a slightly better record than last year. I’ll peg them for 55-60 wins which should easily get them the top spot. The Cavs will be without Isaiah to start the season, trying to figure it out. When he does come back, they’ll have to reconfigure again.

The second round will be the first real test for the new look C’s, but don’t expect it to be a drawn out battle. The number-one seeded Celtics move on to the Eastern Conference Finals for the second consecutive year. Following the same narrative as last year, they run in to a team they have yet to see all season – the Playoff Cavaliers.

WHO ARE THESE GUYS?

There is no way to sugarcoat it. The Cavaliers are going to be in the Eastern Conference Finals, and they will be ready. Not only ready to play, but ready specifically to beat the Boston Celtics. There will be a guy by the name of Isaiah Thomas in the ECF, playing with a chip on his shoulder. Oh, and he’s going to have his friend Jae Crowder with him as well, ready to lock down Lebron James all game. Wait.. this is getting confusing. We can’t put Jae on Lebron?

Seriously, that’s going to be an issue. As if that weren’t enough, lining him up with Lebron on defense is going to be scary for any team. And then there’s the fact that, well, Lebron does a lot more than just play defense. Not to mention he’s going to be out to show Kyrie he made the wrong choice leaving Cleveland. When the best player in the world has your number, it’s never a good thing.

JUST BEING REAL, FOLKS

This series is going to be a classic, point blank period. The last time I was waiting for a particular series before the season started, it was the Celtics-Lakers in the Finals. It is simply the fate of these two teams to go the distance in the Conference Finals after all that has transpired. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but my prediction is the Celtics will lose to the Cavaliers in seven. The inexperience of the young C’s will show itself, and the Cavs will be more hungry for it this season. They will be out for revenge; the Celtics are just going to be taking it all in. The Cavs also don’t have the luxury of youth and (take a seat, Danny, your job is done) stability, and thus have more of a sense of urgency to win now.

All things considered, if the Celtics get this far, it’s not that far-fetched to see them advancing to the Finals. Anything can happen in a game seven, but I don’t think that scenario favors the Celtics. In the wise words of former Celtics coach Doc Rivers, “you never want the series to get to a game seven when the best player is on the other team.” He was talking about Lebron James, right after his Celtics team lost to the Heat in game seven of the 2012 Eastern Conference Finals. Lebron had 45pts-15rbs-5ast in that game. Fast forward six years and I think the narrative proves to be eerily similar. The Celtics crawl a tad further into uncharted waters in their quest for Banner 18, but fall just shy of the NBA Finals this year.

Stay tuned for my upcoming article on when the Celtics will win their next championship!!

Red Sox Postseason Numbers Crunch in Bullpen

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The Red Sox face a roster crunch for the postseason. Many bullpen arms have stepped up down the stretch and pitching well in critical spots. Of course, not a bad problem to have. It does however beg the question, which ones will make the postseason team?

Bullpen Arms

Craig Kimbrel is obviously on the team as the closer. That’s the number-one bullpen spot. Addison Reed will no doubt set him up. Despite a couple hiccups with the Red Sox, Reed has pitched well since coming over. With reports that David Price will pitch out of the pen in the playoffs, that’s three automatic spots occupied. Price is intriguing out there. It’s been a long time since he shut the Red Sox down in the ALCS in his rookie season coming out of the pen. However, he doesn’t have to worry about lasting and can just rear back and throw. He could be an effective left-handed option for them in crucial spots. Price would also be available for multiple innings at times in big spots if innings are needed. As for the other options…

Matt Barnes has been with the team all year, leading with 66 appearances. He can be hit or miss though, and his 3.88 ERA is high compared to the teams other relievers. Is there a chance one of their most used relief pitchers over the last two seasons off the postseason roster? He does strike out a lot of players — 75 batters in 65 innings. He’s not very trustworthy though.

Heath Hembree has pitched for the Sox a lot this season, appearing in 60 contests as of this writing. Hembree has a decent 3.58 ERA, but his 1.46 WHIP is the worst of anyone with more than 20 appearances. He puts a lot of men on base, which would be awfully nerve-wracking in the playoffs. Hembree, like Barnes, strikes out more than a batter per inning.

Joe Kelly has to be on the roster. With his 2.68 ERA and .207 opponent average, I trust Kelly much more than I trust either Barnes or Hembree. His 100 mph heat can be overpowering and elicits a lot of weak contact.

Brandon Workman has been outstanding for the Sox since coming back from injury. He has worked 37.1 innings to a 2.41 ERA. He can work multiple innings if needed, and do so effectively, a key weapon to have in the postseason.

Carson Smith shows us all what we have been waiting for. Somehow fleecing the Mariners in acquiring Smith (and Elias) for Wade Miley, Smith hadn’t pitched in almost two seasons for the Sox until this month. In 2015 he struck out nearly 12 batters per nine innings and had a 2.31 ERA. This kid has an electric arm. Since returning, Smith has struck out five batters over 4.1 shutout innings. I’d want him on the roster.

Austin Maddox has come out of nowhere to throw his hat in the mix. A guy hardly anyone knew anything about not long ago, Maddox is a 26-year-old career minor leaguer. His career ERA in the minors is 4.27. He’s pitched better the further into his professional career he has gone, posting a sub 4.00 ERA each of the past three seasons. This year his ERA was below 3.00 combined between Portland and Pawtucket. Since joining the big club, Maddox has thrown 12.1 shutout innings! Very shocking. He has allowed only 10 base runners and struck out 10 batters.

For left handers, I have to think at least one other than Price will make it. We have two options. Robby Scott pitched great in a few appearances late last season. This year he has been a little up and down, but when you only face a couple batters a game at most, your ERA fluctuate wildly. Batters hit only .186 off of him and he has a 1.03 WHIP. Beyond that, lefties bat an anemic .131 versus Robby. His should only face a lefty in a big spot. Why wouldn’t you want someone that dominant versus them?

The other option is Fernando Abad. John Farrell can’t seem to get past the fact he stunk last year. Abad is 2-0 with a 2.98 ERA this season however, showing why Dombrowski acquired him to begin with. Abad has a much better ERA than Scott, but his peripherals aren’t as good, allowing more hits and putting more men on base. Also, he isn’t as effective at getting lefties out, which is what the Sox will need from their left hander in the pen.

If I were to pick, I would say Kimbrel, Reed, Price, Kelly, Workman, Smith and Scott. Could even choose to keep eight, with four starters instead of five it opens another roster spot. The 4^th rotation spot seems to be up for grabs, but whoever loses out in that battle won’t make the playoff roster as a reliever.

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Red Sox Potential Playoff Scenarios

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As the season winds down playoff contenders are beginning to game-plan for their potential first round opponents. More than likely, the Sox will encounter either Houston or Cleveland in the ALDS. For the majority of the season, the Astros were the heavy favorite to win the AL due to their remarkable offense and above-average pitching staff. However, thanks to a historic run, the Indians have emerged as the clear AL favorite and possibly World Series favorite as well. The Tribe is currently sitting on a a 21-game win streak, an all time American League record. Meanwhile, Houston is just 18-21 since the beginning of August. Safe to say that Red Sox Nation hopes to face Houston in the ALDS.

Houston is a favorable match-up for Boston

The Red Sox have no reason to think twice about playing the Astros in the first round. Houston is actually a sub .500 team since the All-Star break with a record of just 27-28. Sure, Correa, Springer and Keuchel have all spent time on the DL. But a sub .500 performance doesn’t approach playoff-caliber baseball, despite any injuries a team undergoes.

On the other hand, the Red Sox have gone 32-23 since the All-Star break. Keuchel and Verlander hold down the front of Houston’s rotation. An intimidating duo at first glance, but further speculation exposes their true identity. Keuchel has not pitched well lately. He owns an ERA of 5.59 over his last three starts. Verlander boasts an exceptional 2.20 ERA over the last month. But baseball fans know he has become rather inconsistent in recent years. Due to Keuchel’s struggles and Verlander’s inconsistency, Houston’s rotation becomes a serious concern for Astros fans. As a staff, Houston’s pitchers own an ERA of 4.35 over the last month, which does not compare favorably to the Red Sox ERA of 3.87 over the same stretch. Also, the Astros offense has struggled down the stretch. As a team they are batting a modest .244 over the past 28 days. With Houston’s mediocre second-half pitching, hitting and overall play they have fallen as a legitimate world series contender. The Red Sox should be confident in their chances of beating them.

Why Cleveland is road block for the Sox

The Red Sox will likely have to play Cleveland at some point in the playoffs. This could be a potential problem. But, remember that anyone can win come playoff time. As I mentioned earlier, the Indians are in the middle of a record-breaking win streak which currently stands at 21. Tito and company have certainly been playing phenomenal baseball as of late. During the streak they have outscored opponents 139-35 and have trailed in just five innings. Dominant starting pitching has led their success as they claimed 19 of the 21 wins during the streak. In total, the Indians pitchers boast a 1.79 ERA during this incredible stretch.

Their spectacular offense has batted .284 and slugged 50 home runs since the start of the streak. The Red Sox will certainly have their hands full if they encounter the Tribe. Chris Sale’s poor career numbers against Cleveland remain a central concern for the Sox. In his career he is 5-8 with a 4.78 ERA, certainly not Sale-like numbers. Despite Sale’s struggles against the Indians, I personally trust him on the mound in any situation. He has established himself as a true ace and an elite pitcher in the middle of a historic season. At the end of the day Chris Sale is Chris Sale and he should be trusted no matter the opponent.

American League Title is up for grabs

The postseason is going to be here before we know it. It appears that that the Red Sox will have to face Cleveland in order to make it to the World Series. Let us not forget that the city of Boston in underdog scenarios. With a big 11-1 thrashing over Oakland last night, the Red Sox may be heating up just in time. This team has shown flashes of brilliance over the course of the season and I am sensing a joyfully dramatic playoff run for this group. When Boston plays their own brand of aggressive, tenacious and determined baseball, they can beat anyone. Red Sox Nation, I ask you to please remember this; Boston has already beaten Cleveland four times in seven tries this year. They can do it again. Lets go Sox! Win. Dance. Repeat.

*Statistics accurate as of 9/13/17* Follow me on twitter @MLBfromNH (Kevin Civiello)