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Red Sox, Yankees

RED SOX – YANKEES SERIES PREVIEW

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After all of the optimism of last week, the Red Sox enter this series on a low. Having taken five of their previous six games, they are now on a four-game losing streak. Dropping two games to the rays was bad. Losing all three was a disaster. There was a real chance the Red Sox could have come into this series seven-ish games behind the Yankees, with the chance to get within five. Instead, they are 10.5 behind, and even if everything goes perfect they will still be over seven games behind.

7/25 Eduardo Rodriguez vs. James Paxton (L) 7:05 pm NESN

7/26 Chris Sale vs. Domingo German (R) 1:05 pm NESN

7/27 Brian Johnson vs. TBD 7:05 pm NESN

7/28 David Price vs. J.A. Happ (L) 7:00 pm ESPN

NOTABLE NUMBERS

PITCHERS

Eduardo Rodriguez really turned it on in July after a mixed start of the season. After allowing 52 earned runs in his first 97 2/3 innings, he allowed just seven earned runs in 31 innings in July, giving him a 2.03 ERA. His one Achilles heel here could be that he has a 4.35 ERA on the road, but much of that damage was done prior to the July turn around. Rodrguez could get the Red Sox off to a flying start in this series.

What a strange season it has been for James Paxton at home. In his first five home starts he allowed just one earned run in 26 2/3 innings with 37 strikeouts. However, in the last five starts in New York things have somewhat changed. In 21 1/3 innings he has allowed 19 earned runs with 24 strikeouts. It has been a clear season of two halves so far, so which Paxton will we see this time around?

Domingo German has been superb at home this season, with a 2.13 ERA and 55 strikeouts in 42 1/3 innings. He has not allowed more than three earned runs in any of those home starts. That matchup with Sale in the early start on Saturday is going to be a fascinating watch, but it might be hard for Sale to come out on top.

HITTERS

The Red Sox could not have a better combination of pitchers in this series, given they have three left-handed pitchers and the Yankees are distinctly average against lefties this season. They rank 15th in the league in batting average, 14th in slugging percentage and ISO, and 11th in K%.

So far the Red Sox offense has built through the season, and they appear to be peaking right now. Having hit just .239 in April/May, they hit .302 in July, with a .534 slugging percentage and 173 runs scored. They could not be heading into New York in much better form at the plate than they are.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

Pitching: The red Sox pitching staff has generally been better on the road this season. Yes, they have allowed more home runs in fewer games on the road, but around that they have performed better. On the road, they own a 4.34 ERA and a .249 batting average against. This is important because the Red Sox need to keep picking up wins away from home. They are also likely to be playing playoff series as the road team, and given their home form they will need to pinch a few games on the road if they want to make a deep playoff run.

Hitting: Andrew Benintendi has received a lot of flack this season for his performance. However, what he does extremely well is hit the Yankees. In his career he hits .317 with a .523 slugging percentage against them. He has been especially good these past two seasons, hitting over .300 both years. This season, in 36 PA he is hitting .396 with two home runs and five extra-base hits. In big spots this season the Red Sox will be hoping that Benintendi can continue that form.

EXPECTATIONS

It is too early to completely write off the Red Sox shot at the division, but after this most recent series, it is hanging by a thread. For the last month or so they have Yo-Yo’d around this 8-10 game mark behind the Yankees. It is realistic to say that the Wildcard is their most likely route to the playoffs. However, that does not mean they should not target the division.

This will be a tough series, but then we were saying this last week at this time. The Red Sox proved last week that they can go toe-to-toe with this Yankees team. Even if they do not ultimately win the division, taking these games off the Yankees now could reap psychological benefits down the road. This series may ultimately end up not mattering for the division, but for the wildcard, the pride of the Red Sox and potentially putting fear into this Yankees team, it matters a lot.

Projecting the Opening Day Roster

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Based off of the quiet offseason Boston has had, many fans may think the transactions may be far from done. It is still possible that Dombrowski goes and resigns Craig Kimbrel, and it’s also possible he cooks up a trade to bring in a reliever. That aside, the roster is all but set. A couple guys are going to be fighting for jobs in March and that will be very interesting to watch. Without further ado, this is the best projection I have for what the 25 man roster might look like on April 9th vs. Toronto.

Catchers (2)

Christian Vazquez, Blake Swihart (starter in bold):

This is a three horse race for two jobs. Somehow Boston went all of 2018 with three catchers on their roster and it never really hurt them. They were never down a utility bat or a pitcher in the bullpen due to having three catchers, so they got away with it. 2019 won’t be the same case. Dombrowski has already said they want to make a move, with any of the three catchers available.

Sandy Leon is likely going to be the odd man out. If the Red Sox don’t find a suitor for him on the trade market, he’ll likely see himself cut before opening day. Personally, I would keep Leon to backup Vazquez (who’s bound to bounce back) and use Swihart as trade bait, but hey that’s just me.

Infielders (7)

Mitch Moreland, Steve Pearce, Dustin Pedroia, Brock Holt, Eduardo Nunez, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers:

This situation isn’t as cloudy as the one behind the dish. The left side of the infield is locked in. Raffy will look to make strides at third while Xander head into a contract year at short. Dustin Pedroia will start at second, barring any setbacks with his knee. If he isn’t good to go for opening day I would give Brock the nod over Nunez at second. Then we turn to first base where there isn’t one starter, as it’s more of a platoon situation. Mitch Moreland is my projected opening day starter, since Marcus Stroman is likely to start for Toronto and he’s a righty. Steve Pearce is more than capable to hit against righties, but will likely start the season facing mostly left-handed opponents.

Outfielders (3)

Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley Jr., Mookie Betts:

With J.D. essentially serving as the DH/fourth outfielder, the Red Sox will only carry three natural outfielders on their roster. This was the case in 2018, and worked better than anyone could have imagined. J.D. was able to fill in the outfield at various times to give some of these guys a day off here and there, and will look to do the same in 2019.

The key part for this outfield this season is how they all blossom. Can Mookie Betts repeat his MVP caliber season? Can JBJ find a consistent bat and carry over his success from October? Can Andrew Benintendi take the next step towards being an MVP candidate-type player?

Designated Hitter (1)

J.D. Martinez:

Unfortunately if you came here hoping to see Allen Craig, or Rusney Castillo, you are going to be highly disappointed. The only man for this job is Julio Daniel. Martinez had an MVP level season in 2018, and now has a chance to repeat it in 2019 and possibly opt out after this season. This will be a huge season on many fronts for future salaries for these Red Sox players and for the front office. Seeing if J.D. regresses or not is going to be a huge factor to whether he opts in or opts out following 2019. However, J.D. is the man, has a relentless approach, and is always trying to get better. I think he’s due for more of the same in 2018.

Rotation (5)

Chris Sale, David Price, Nathan Eovaldi, Rick Porcello, Eduardo Rodriguez:

The rotation for Boston is five deep. They are loaded and nobody seems to talk about it. Everyone wants to talk about Severino/Paxton/Tanaka in New York or Corbin/Scherzer/Strasburg in Washington. Both sets of trios are certainly worthy of being the best in baseball. As far as the entire rotation goes, Boston might take the cake. Sale, Price and Eovaldi are all legit studs at this point. Price and Eovaldi will likely carry over to 2019 the huge postseasons they had. You know exactly what you’re going to get from Rick Porcello, 190 innings and an ERA around 4. The biggest wild card is Eduardo Rodriguez. If he can finally stay healthy and put together a full season, he could really breakout as an All-Star caliber pitcher in this league.

Rodriguez

Bullpen (7)

Matt Barnes, Ryan Brasier, Brandon Workman, Heath Hembree, Steven Wright, Hector Velazquez, Brian Johnson:

This is the only segment of this article that can still drastically change. Not only are their outside factors still affecting it (Kimbrel, trade, etc.) but there also internal competitions. At least two pitchers who pitched a significant portion of innings in 2018 for Boston could be sent packing after Spring Training, possibly more if another external option joins the club.

Matt Barnes is a lock, and in this scenario, would be my choice for the closer. I’m still hopeful on Kimbrel coming back on a reasonable deal, but for now, Barnes in the ninth. The other locks, Brasier, Hembree, Wright and Johnson. Brasier is the Red Sox second best reliever as of right now. Hembree and Wright both showed their value at times last season, and have earned spots in the bullpen in 2019 barring injury. Brian Johnson is the lefty out in the pen, so I also believe he’s a lock to make this team.

Then we turn to a few names competing for two spots. Workman and Velazquez have the spots in my books, but Tyler Thornburg, Bobby Poyner, and Colten Brewer will also compete for those two jobs. A couple other names I’d keep on eye on, depending on their spring performance, Carson Smith, Marcus Walden, William Cuevas and the kid, Durbin Feltman.

If Craig Kimbrel were to sign, or another reliever was brought in, I believe Workman is the pitcher who gets pumped from this 25 man roster. A lot of things could change on this list, but for the most part this is what the roster is going to look like going into 2019. Looks fairly similar to a roster that didn’t do half bad in 2018.

Three Keys to Winning the World Series

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The Sox are just four wins away, and we now know the final opponent is the Los Angeles Dodgers. Boston has played near perfect baseball throughout the postseason and are positioned to win the franchise’s ninth World Series championship. With the Dodgers returning to the Fall Classic for the second straight year, they are no easy foe. Many small factors can provide a big swing in this series, and there is a few the Sox ought to hope go their way to help capture another World Series.

The Bullpen:

So far in October, the bullpen has been tremendous. Most baseball fans had written off the bullpen, saying that there wasn’t any reliable options to bridge to Kimbrel. Rather the opposite has been the case, the bridge of Matt Barnes, Ryan Brasier and Joe Kelly has been formidable. It has been Kimbrel who’s had the issues. However, Craig Kimbrel seemed to find his form in game five, as he closed the Astros out fairly easily, with some of his throwback stuff. If the middle inning guys can continue to pull their weight, it would make this series a lot easier on the stress levels of Sox Nation.

The Manager:

Everyone in Boston and their grandma loves Dodgers manager/Red Sox hero Dave Roberts. However, the man that matters most this series, is Alex Cora. Through the two beatdowns the Sox have delivered in New York and in Houston, their manager has continued to look genius. Every decision has been genius when deciding between Brock Holt or Ian Kinsler, or Eduardo Nunez or Rafael Devers. Or even behind the plate, between Sandy Leon and Christian Vazquez. Every decision has been well calculated and every decision has paid off. If Cora continues to pull strings like this, and when managing his bullpen, the Sox are going to be damn near unstoppable.

The Game 2 Starter:

Just like I predicted, David Price showed up in his second start of the ALCS and he dealt. He shook the monkey off his back and has turned his postseason narrative right around. To solidify this newfound reputation and to grow his legacy more, the start in game two of the World Series is crucial. Whether Chris Sale can overcome his “stomach issues” and pitch well in game one or not, game two will be huge. Either Sale pitches well, and it’s on Price to get the series to the west coast with the Sox up 2-0. Or Sale struggles, and then David Price is pitching to save the Sox season from going to L.A. down 0-2. Whichever way it pans out, the start from Price will be a turning point in this series.

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Why David Price Has Earned Another Start

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Much has been made over the years, into this postseason, about David Price. It goes without saying that he hasn’t been Sandy Koufax or Madison Bumgarner in the playoffs. However, there were many elements of Sunday night’s start that provide us with signs that Price has turned a corner. For the first time in his career, his team won a game that he started. It goes deeper than that, from pitching out of jams to limiting damage.

Game Two:

Last night, David Price wasn’t perfect, but he was good enough. The walks were a little concerning, but the overall perseverance of Price was enough to earn him another start in a potential game six. The line isn’t gorgeous, four runs on four walks and five hits, but it did the trick. The bullpen did its job like I tried to tell you all before. The Sox won, which is obviously the priority, and Price showed progress in his ability to pitch in October.

Looking at the four runs, they came on two big hits. One came in the second off the bat of George Springer, and another in the third from Marwin Gonzalez. Both were strikes, yes, but neither were bad pitches by any means. Springer was able to swing inside out and just tuck one over Steve Pearce‘s head. With two outs in the inning, both runners were able to score easily, but that was an at-bat that easily could’ve gone Price’s way. When it comes to the Gonzalez home run, again, it wasn’t a bad pitch at all. In fact, the entire at-bat was well calculated and executed. The Astros slugger was just able to get his hands around on a tough pitch up and in and he drove it. Neither pitch that was costing of runs was a bad pitch, just a better swing.

Looking Ahead to Price in Game 6:

So, with everything considered, I believe Price actually pitched very well. If it were anybody else besides Gonzalez that came to the plate in the fifth, he would’ve stayed in the game. In all likelihood, he would’ve been in position for his first career postseason win as a starter. Alex Cora made the right decision matchup-wise, but David’s stuff was good enough for him to pitch another inning.

Going forward, Price deserves another start and he will deliver in the said start. He was very reliant on his fastball and seemed to shy away from the changeup. If he can gain some traction when it comes to throwing that changeup, he could really stifle this gritty Astros lineup. Barring a three-game sweep of the games in Houston, Price will start the biggest game of his career, a game six at Fenway Park in an elimination game. David Price has earned it, and he will come through again for this team.

The Bullpen is Going to be Just Fine

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A lot has been made recently of the apparent “bullpen issues” for the first place Boston Red Sox. I’m here to calm everyone’s worries and remind you that this team is on a historic pace for a reason. Yeah, maybe the bullpen has faltered at times. Yeah, there definitely are some pitchers that you don’t want to see come running to the mound in October. However, with all that said, this bullpen has many valuable members. Many of whom have played a significant role in the double-digit division lead.

The Back End

Let’s start with the anchor at the back, Craig Kimbrel. While it may not be his most dominant season, he is still an elite closer. That is a huge asset to have in the bullpen come postseason time. He’s one of the most overpowering relievers in the league, and his strikeout numbers prove that. He’s easily handled all of his saves in September and has posted a 1.29 ERA over his last 7 appearances. The strength of this team has been the offense, and with the team being up a significant amount of runs, Kimbrel has been able to stay nice and rested. He’ll be fresh in the playoffs.

(Wikimedia Commons)

The Set Up

To the eighth inning we head, and Alex Cora has multiple studs out in the bullpen that can bridge the game to Kimbrel. A healthy Matt Barnes is crucial, and we should get that at least by the playoffs. People can say what they want about Barnes and his control, but it’s no coincidence that he’s sixth out of all relievers in baseball with over FOURTEEN strikeouts per nine. When Matt Barnes is 100%, he’s got 100% of my trust. If he isn’t quite healthy yet then turn to Ryan Brasier. He’s been more than the Sox could’ve dreamed of when they called him up in July. He revitalized his career in Japan, now he’s pumping gas out of the Boston bullpen with a 1.80 ERA. Brasier is going to be key in the postseason, no matter what his role is.

(Keith Allison/Flickr)

The Middle of the Bullpen

A few other guys who are going to work their way into the middle of the game for the Sox are also going to play a crucial role. Joe Kelly has looked a little shaky at times, but that dude has the right mentality to be pitching in the postseason in front of 40,000 screaming Yankees fans in NYC. Knuckleballers tend to frighten fans at times, but Steven Wright has been criminally underrated this year. If that knuckleball can dance in the playoffs like it has been all year, we might have the second coming of Tim Wakefield.

Brandon Workman has been solid this season, and he’s also done the whole World Series thing before. I would feel confident if he were to trot out for the 7th inning in a tight ballgame. The last name I’m going to toss out there is a huge x-factor, seeing as he might be the only lefty in the pen, and that is Bobby Poyner. Don’t sleep on Poyner playing a large role in specific matchup situations for Cora. However, when he is on, he has as good of stuff as anyone out in that pen.

(Keith Allison/Flickr)

Feel reassured yet? You should! This bullpen only gets flak because it’s the only glaring “weakness” on a team with 100+ wins. They have one of the best closers on the planet mixed with multiple, reliable options to get from the starters to the closer. Everybody just relax and breathe, this bullpen is solid and this team is set for a deep run.

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The Red Sox Should Have Signed Lester, Not Price

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In the winter of 2014, Jon Lester was the big name free agent to hit the market. The Cubs ended up signing him to a six-year, $155M contract. The following winter, David Price was the big name free agent. Lester’s has a $25.8M per year, with Price at $30M annually. Here’s why the Red Sox made a huge mistake.

Jon Lester

Lester said that he would take a discount, making it easier for the Red Sox to sign him. NESN reported that he probably would have signed a five-year extension worth $120M (24 per). In 113 starts as a Cub, Lester has a 3.09 ERA. Lester’s 3.09 ERA since 2015 ranks 10th in the MLB, minimum 500 innings pitched, one spot below Chris Sale. So the Red Sox could have two top-ten pitchers in the league right now. In eleven postseason starts, he has a 1.63 ERA since 2015, and he won the 2016 NLCS MVP.

David Price

After a rough 2015 when Clay Buchholz was the opening day starter, the Red Sox needed to go out and make a big move. They were competing with the Cardinals, so they upped their offer to a seven-year, $217M dollar contract (31 per). Since 2016, Price has a 3.95 ERA in Boston. Price’s 3.95 ERA ranks 27th in the majors since 2016, minimum 400 innings pitched. He ranks third in annual salary, with his 27th slot in the majors is not good enough. In three postseason games as a Red Sox, he has a 4.50 ERA and a 13.50 ERA in his only start.

The Comparison

The Red Sox have won the division both years Price has been in Boston, but they are 1-6 in the playoff games. In his only start against the Indians, Price gave up five runs in 3.1 innings and took the loss. To Price’s credit, he pitched well against the Astros in the bullpen. Lester’s Cubs went to the NLCS in 2015 and 2017 and won the World Series in 2016. Lester is more clutch and trustworthy than Price and is on a better contract. Price is 32 and could opt out of his contract after this year, but I doubt he will given his struggles. I do not like watching a 32-year-old David Price, and I am certainly not looking forward to watching a 36-year-old David Price.

I believe this is the dumbest move ownership has made in the last decade. Some may make the case for the Ramirez and Pablo signing, letting Epstein and Francona go, or something else. But with the difference in money and performance, the decision not to sign Lester and to sign Price is the worst one. There is not a huge difference in money, but the money could be better spent elsewhere. Price is going to get worse as he ages, and the contract is going to look worse and worse each year.