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RED SOX – YANKEES SERIES PREVIEW

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After all of the optimism of last week, the Red Sox enter this series on a low. Having taken five of their previous six games, they are now on a four-game losing streak. Dropping two games to the rays was bad. Losing all three was a disaster. There was a real chance the Red Sox could have come into this series seven-ish games behind the Yankees, with the chance to get within five. Instead, they are 10.5 behind, and even if everything goes perfect they will still be over seven games behind.

7/25 Eduardo Rodriguez vs. James Paxton (L) 7:05 pm NESN

7/26 Chris Sale vs. Domingo German (R) 1:05 pm NESN

7/27 Brian Johnson vs. TBD 7:05 pm NESN

7/28 David Price vs. J.A. Happ (L) 7:00 pm ESPN

NOTABLE NUMBERS

PITCHERS

Eduardo Rodriguez really turned it on in July after a mixed start of the season. After allowing 52 earned runs in his first 97 2/3 innings, he allowed just seven earned runs in 31 innings in July, giving him a 2.03 ERA. His one Achilles heel here could be that he has a 4.35 ERA on the road, but much of that damage was done prior to the July turn around. Rodrguez could get the Red Sox off to a flying start in this series.

What a strange season it has been for James Paxton at home. In his first five home starts he allowed just one earned run in 26 2/3 innings with 37 strikeouts. However, in the last five starts in New York things have somewhat changed. In 21 1/3 innings he has allowed 19 earned runs with 24 strikeouts. It has been a clear season of two halves so far, so which Paxton will we see this time around?

Domingo German has been superb at home this season, with a 2.13 ERA and 55 strikeouts in 42 1/3 innings. He has not allowed more than three earned runs in any of those home starts. That matchup with Sale in the early start on Saturday is going to be a fascinating watch, but it might be hard for Sale to come out on top.

HITTERS

The Red Sox could not have a better combination of pitchers in this series, given they have three left-handed pitchers and the Yankees are distinctly average against lefties this season. They rank 15th in the league in batting average, 14th in slugging percentage and ISO, and 11th in K%.

So far the Red Sox offense has built through the season, and they appear to be peaking right now. Having hit just .239 in April/May, they hit .302 in July, with a .534 slugging percentage and 173 runs scored. They could not be heading into New York in much better form at the plate than they are.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

Pitching: The red Sox pitching staff has generally been better on the road this season. Yes, they have allowed more home runs in fewer games on the road, but around that they have performed better. On the road, they own a 4.34 ERA and a .249 batting average against. This is important because the Red Sox need to keep picking up wins away from home. They are also likely to be playing playoff series as the road team, and given their home form they will need to pinch a few games on the road if they want to make a deep playoff run.

Hitting: Andrew Benintendi has received a lot of flack this season for his performance. However, what he does extremely well is hit the Yankees. In his career he hits .317 with a .523 slugging percentage against them. He has been especially good these past two seasons, hitting over .300 both years. This season, in 36 PA he is hitting .396 with two home runs and five extra-base hits. In big spots this season the Red Sox will be hoping that Benintendi can continue that form.

EXPECTATIONS

It is too early to completely write off the Red Sox shot at the division, but after this most recent series, it is hanging by a thread. For the last month or so they have Yo-Yo’d around this 8-10 game mark behind the Yankees. It is realistic to say that the Wildcard is their most likely route to the playoffs. However, that does not mean they should not target the division.

This will be a tough series, but then we were saying this last week at this time. The Red Sox proved last week that they can go toe-to-toe with this Yankees team. Even if they do not ultimately win the division, taking these games off the Yankees now could reap psychological benefits down the road. This series may ultimately end up not mattering for the division, but for the wildcard, the pride of the Red Sox and potentially putting fear into this Yankees team, it matters a lot.

Red Sox, Yankees

RED SOX – YANKEES SERIES PREVIEW

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It was so close to being the perfect series for the Red Sox down in Tampa. After taking the first two games of the series they just failed to pick up the third against Charlie Morton. Officially as of writing that game is under protest, but if I understand the rules correctly the result will stand. Whatever happens with that game, the Red Sox mentally need to move on and be ready for this massive series with the Yankees. Take three of these games and they have a shot in the division. Lose three and it is as good as over as far as the division is concerned.

7/25 Rick Porcello vs. Masahiro Tanaka (R) 7:10 pm NESN

7/26 Andrew Cashner vs. James Paxton (R) 7:10 pm NESN

7/27 Eduardo Rodriguez vs. C.C. Sabathia (L) 4:05 pm NESN

7/28 Chris Sale vs. Domingo German (R) 7:00 pm ESPN

NOTABLE NUMBERS

PITCHERS

The last time we saw Rick Porcello and Masahiro Tanaka face off it were in London and it did not go well in for either. Since that outing, both pitchers have struggled, with Tanaka having a 5.40 ERA and Porcello an 8.64 ERA in their starts since. There is every chance this first game could be high scoring.

Here are this season road ERAs for the Yankees pitchers. Tanaka: 5.40; Paxton: 4.78; German: 5.66; Sabathia: 6.59. The Red Sox should have plenty of opportunities to score runs in this series, and with some of the struggles their pitching staff has had they will need to.

So Cashner is not off to a great start with the Red Sox, having a 7.36 ERA through two starts. It is a small sample size so no need to panic yet, but this will be a tough test. In his career, Cashner has faced off with the Yankees 10 times. Over the course of 10 starts, he has a 2-5 record with a 3.96 ERA. However, in three starts in 2019 he has a 6.19 ERA and an 0-2 record. The Red Sox desperately need him to change that.

HITTERS

After a sluggish start, the Yankees offense has killed it in the last two months. In those first two months, they hit below .260 with a .450 slugging percentage. However, since the start of June, they have hit over .280 with a slugging percentage over .500. Since the All-Star break, they have hit .303 with 24 home runs and a .541 slugging percentage.

The Red Sox have had more success at home than on the road this season. Their batting average at Fenway Park is .277, compared to .267 on the road, with a .475 slugging percentage, compared to .451. They will need to be every bit at their home best if they are to go toe-to-toe with this Yankees offense.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

Pitching: This is the ultimate test of this pitching staff. Series like these are where heroes stand up and make themselves known. That is especially the case with arguably the Red Sox three weakest starters on the mound. There is a chance this bullpen will be tested to the max across this series, and how they cope will be very telling.

Hitting: I mentioned the Red Sox starters road ERA above and that will be key for the Red Sox. This season they have been better against relievers than starters, by a fairly significant margin. If they can get on top of the first couple of starters in this series they could do some real damage to this bullpen by the end of the series.

EXPECTATIONS

The Red Sox briefly got themselves tied for second place in the division. However, their loss to the Rays in the final game has left them trailing the Yankees by 11 games. Even if they win this series 3-1 they will only close up two games and just creep back under double-digits.

The Red Sox need to lay down a marker in this series. They will face the Yankees on the road next week and if they can carry a 3-1 or 4-0 victory out of this series then they could spring a real surprise next week. The only way back into this is likely to be small victories but closing up four or six games in these two series would really give them a shot heading into the final third of the season.

Red Sox need to take advantage of upcoming stretch

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Christian Vazquez capped an exciting comeback with an extra inning walk off homer on Friday night. The Sox managed to erase a 5-1 deficit to beat the Toronto Blue Jays when Chris Sale did not have his best stuff. One would hope this exciting victory could jump start the Sox into a series win. Unfortunately, that was not the case.

The Red Sox then proceeded to have a really bad weekend. They lost two out of three at home to a Blue Jays team that was 27-48 going into this series. The bullpen blew a 6-1 lead on Saturday. The offense and Rick Porcello were not effective on Sunday. The official start of Summer at Fenway was spoiled by the Jays from Toronto.

However, there is something to look forward to. Boston is now entering a rather favorable stretch of play, as five of the next seven series contain sub .500 opponents. The Chicago White Sox come into Fenway for a three game series starting Monday. The White Sox currently hold a 36-39 record. (Not to mention Boston clobbered Chicago in early May, scoring 34 runs and winning three of four.)

Following this series in The United States, Boston will travel across the Pond to London. On June 29h and 30th, Boston will take on the 49-28, American League East leading New York Yankees. Also, the Sox will be off on June 27th and 28th and July 1st. This is the last team over .500 the Red Sox will face before the All-Star Break.

The Red Sox will then leave Europe for Canada for three games with the Jays before returning back to the states. Boston will wrap up the unofficial first half of the season with 3 between the woeful Detroit Tigers, who currently sport a 26-44 record.

After the All Star Break, Boston is back for three games at Fenway with the Los Angeles Dodgers, a rematch of last year’s Fall Classic. Los Angeles currently has the best record in baseball with 50 wins to a mere 25 loses.

The Red Sox end that homestand with a four game series against the Blue Jays. Boston will then travel to Baltimore to face an Orioles team that currently sits last in the majors with a not-so-hot record of 21 and 53.

It is crucial the Red Sox make the most out of this part of their schedule if they want to cut into the Yankees lead. They already started this stretch on the wrong foot by losing a home series to the poultry Blue Jays. (Not to mention, making me change my article.)

After these 21 games with six days off, Boston crashes back to reality with four straight series against New York and Tampa Bay. If the Red Sox want to avoid that nerve-wracking, unpredictable Wild-Card Game, they need to take advantage of the next four weeks. Not only is the competition inferior, they have a lot of off days.

Bottom line, Boston cannot afford too many more poor series against under .500 teams.

Photo courtesy of Michael Dwyer, AP Photo

Follow Chad Jones on Twitter @ShutUpChadJones

BSE Baseball Writers Postseason Predictions

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Following up our predictions for the major awards in the upcoming baseball season, the baseball writers here at Boston Sports Extra make our predictions on the most important thing of all; the postseason. Who will win their divisions, who will sneak in as Wild Cards, and ultimately, who will win the World Series?

American League East

Thom Howland: Boston Red Sox

No bullpen? No problem. Sale is ready for a Cy Young season, Price is over the playoff hump, Porcello is a rock, and EROD is about to make the leap.  The lineup is 2004 deep, and AC is a wizard.

Scott Frizzell: Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox won’t win as many games as last season, but who does? Both them and the Yankees should drop into the 90’s for a win total, with the divisional race going down to the wire.

John Principe: Boston Red Sox

Even though the Yankees have certainly closed the gap, and the Rays have also taken a step forward, this division is still Boston’s to lose. I think this team is more than capable of winning their 4th straight AL East.

Ben Rolfe: New York Yankees

It will be a two horse race but the combination of a little more offensive depth and the best bullpen in the majors should mean the Yankees come out on top this season.

Mike Quilty: Boston Red Sox

Boston’s rotation looks to be one of the best, if not the best in baseball. With Sale as #1 and Price at #5 it’s going to be tough for teams to score, especially with the defensive talent in the field. Best outfield, good infield with a stacked lineup to jump on teams. Boston will figure out the closer spot and will look to go deep into the playoffs.

American League Central

Thom Howland: Cleveland Indians

Their starters are deep, almost the rival of the Sox.  They have an MVP candidate in Jose Ramirez, and Francisco Lindor’s not far behind.  But their depth is questionable, and their bullpen beyond Brad Hand is unproven.  They’ll win a weak division.

Scott Frizzell: Cleveland Indians

The Indians have seemingly taken a step backward, but with the rest of the division being arguably the worst in baseball, they should still have this division wrapped up with a couple weeks to go. Their rotation is one of the best in baseball one through five.

John Principe: Minnesota Twins

The Indians are obviously the clear pick here, but with questions up and down their lineup, I decided to open this one up a little. The Tigers and Royals are clearly in rebuilding modes and the White Sox are still a year or two away. This leaves the Twins; with an improved lineup, rotation and a new manager, all of which I believe will culminate for a surprising division win.

Ben Rolfe: Cleveland Indians

The White Sox will be better than many expect but the Indians should romp home comfortably in the Central. They just have too much everywhere for a generally weak division.

Mike Quilty: Cleveland Indians

Cleveland is in a very winnable division as it is, not to mention their pitching. I see Cleveland racking up wins in 2019.

American League West

Thom Howland: Houston Astros

Formidable. And Josh James will be there full time this year and push for the Rookie of the Year.

Scott Frizzell: Houston Astros

As was the case in the central, I don’t see any team making this a race. The Astros have both the best rotation and the best lineup in the division.

John Principe: Houston Astros

This division should be more tightly contested this year than in the past few. The A’s and Angels are both going to be right there with the Astros all year, but to me with the addition of Brantley, the Astros are still superior to the other 4 teams in their division.

Ben Rolfe: Houston Astros

Perhaps the most competitive division in terms of depth in the AL. Expect one or two of the Mariners, A’s and Angels to push this deep into September. However, the Astros will have the experience and talent to win this division once again, led by their one-two punch of Verlander and Cole.

Mike Quilty: Houston Astros

This pick seems like a lock as Houston looks like the best team in baseball from top to bottom. The Astros will be a wagon in 2019.

American League Wild Cards

Thom Howland: New York Yankees and Los Angeles Angels

I feel really bad that New York’s Ace is dealing with injuries and their starters average age is in the mid-30s.  However, their lineup is the best in the game, and so is their bullpen, so they’ll push the Sox into September for the division lead. The Angels starters are iffy. Maybe Heaney stays healthy and Matt Harvey dons his cape and cowl once more.  Mike Trout is the current Best Player in Baseball (apologies to Mookie, he’s got to do it for a few more years to truly match Trout), Cozart, Bour, and Calhoun take a step forward, and the underrated bullpen gels. Pujols has one more decent season in him too.

Scott Frizzell: New York Yankees and Los Angeles Angels

The Yankees will be far ahead of the other teams vying for the Wild Card. I see the Angels, Rays, Twins, Athletics and possibly even the Mariners fighting for the second spot. The A’s will take a step backwards from their big season last year, as their rotation is highly questionable. So is the Angels, but I think their lineup puts a strong foot forward this year.

John Principe: New York Yankees and Cleveland Indians

There should be lots of teams left in contention with who I have winning the division (Athletics, Angels, Yankees, Indians, Rays, Blue Jays) but the two teams I think should comfortably land one and two, respectively, in the Wild Card standings, are the Yankees and Indians. Of all the teams in WC contention, those two are the deepest and most experienced and it would make for a great one game wild card.

Ben Rolfe: Boston Red Sox and Seattle Mariners

The Red Sox could easily win 100 games again and not win the division, but they will be a Wildcard team. The Mariners have made some fascinating moves, but their offense does just enough to drag them over the A’s and Rays for the fifth and final spot.

Mike Quilty: New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays

Having a lethal lineup that can score at will, the Yankees will be a hard out for any team that plays them this year. My second Wildcard pick is the Rays. After winning 90 games in 2018 TB added depth at an already good rotation and I think they will be going to the playoffs for the first time since 2013

National League East

Thom Howland: Washington Nationals

It’s Ewing Theory time. Bye bye Harper, hello Division winner. They added Patrick Corbin to a loaded starting staff, their lineup is deep and balanced, and so is their bullpen. 

Scott Frizzell: Philadelphia Phillies

I correctly predicted the Phillies hanging in the playoff race until September before fading last year, saying they were a year away from making it. I’m not backing off them now, with the additions of Harper, Realmuto and Segura to the lineup. I would have liked to see them sign Dallas Keuchel to help shore up their rotation, but they should be in this anyways.

John Principe: Philadelphia Phillies

This division should be as hotly contested as any, with four teams all believing they can win it. I think the Braves take a slight step back, and the Mets are slightly inexperienced. This leaves Bryce Harper’s new team and his former team. While I think Juan Soto helps the Nationals improve on last year, I don’t believe it’s enough to catch Philly for the division.

Ben Rolfe: New York Mets

Much like the AL West this is a deep division with four challengers. The Phillies have the depth, the Braves have the young talent and the Nationals have the rotation. However, the Mets rotation is the one that shines and will lead New York one step closer to a potential Subway World Series.

Mike Quilty: Washington Nationals

Maybe I’m crazy, but even with the departure of Bryce Harper and missing the playoffs last year, I think they get this done. Washington has 3 great arms in their rotation with a mix of young and veteran talent. I think they just beat out Atlanta.

National League Central

Thom Howland: Chicago Cubs

Yu Darvish will bounce back and anchor a strong rotation that includes old friend Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Cole Hamels and Jose Quintana. Kris Bryant is healthy again, and the lineup has a ton of depth. A deep bullpen puts the cherry on top. The Chicago Cubs will be back as one of the top NL teams this year.

Scott Frizzell: St. Louis Cardinals

The NL East should be competitive, but this is probably the toughest division one through five with the Reds improvements. The Cardinals added Paul Goldschmidt this offseason to anchor a good lineup (if only they’d bench Dexter Fowler).

John Principe: St. Louis Cardinals

Another tightly contested division, every single team in the NL Central has relatively high hopes. The Cubs, Brewers and Cardinals all see themselves as World Series contenders, and the Pirates and Reds have made much progress on filling out their rosters. With five solid teams, these teams could end up beating up on each other, and in that case, I like the new-look Cardinals to come out on top. 

Ben Rolfe: Chicago Cubs

The Brewers and Cardinals are both really good teams and this should be a tight race right down to the wire. However, the Cubs have the raw talent on offense and the best rotation in the division, which should be enough to see them avoid another miserable October on the sidelines.

Mike Quilty: St. Louis Cardinals

I’m a big fan of Paul Goldschmidt as you know if you read our last predictions. The Cardinals added him to a decent lineup that already has Matt Carpenter, who should make a great 1-2 punch with Goldschmidt. Last year they struggled with the pen, but I think Andrew Miller should bounce back in 2019.

National League West

Thom Howland: Los Angeles Dodgers

Dave Roberts sits his best power hitters in the World Series, but the analytical acolytes will continue to dominate the regular season. Stripling and Buehler make Kershaw’s continuing slow downward trend palatable in the starting rotation. That lineup is among the deepest in the game and Kenley Jansen leads a strong bullpen.

Scott Frizzell: Los Angeles Dodgers

It’s hard to see the Dodgers relinquishing their crown. Kershaw has started to have injury problems and miss time, but Walker Buehler is a burgeoning ace. They have a good rotation and go deeper than any team in baseball with good options in case of injury.

John Principe: Los Angeles Dodgers

Possibly the easiest division to pick, the LA Dodgers won’t see a whole lot of competition. To me, Arizona clearly took a step back, and Colorado is a large candidate to do so as well. The Padres added Machado, but their rotation has no chance of competing for a division title. This leaves just San Francisco as the only possible rival for the Dodgers to win the division. The Giants haven’t made themselves much better than last year which leads me to believe the Dodgers should win this by double digit games.

Ben Rolfe: Colorado Rockies

The prevailing feeling I have seen is that this is the Dodgers division to lose. Well the Rockies will have something to say about that. Their rotation is going to have rough stretches pitching in Coors, but led by Blackmon, Arenado, Murphy and Story they can upset the Dodgers and put a spanner in their plans for a third World Series.

Mike Quilty: Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers have won this division every year since 2013 and I don’t see that changing this year. Even with the big name departures I think LA will look to make a run for a third straight trip to the World Series.

National League Wild Cards

Thom Howland: Philadelphia Phillies and Colorado Rockies

Harper will finally top 40 homers for the first time since 2015, and they have a good staff led by Aaron Nola, but their lineup otherwise will probably have some regression. I think they’re a touch behind the Nats. Bud Black will bring out the best in an exciting starting staff for the Rockies.  Kyle Freeland, German Marquez, and Jon Gray could push the Nationals for the best starters in the NL and the lineup has a few MVP candidates in Arenado, Blackmon and Trevor Story.  If the bullpen holds up, this is a playoff team.

Scott Frizzell: Milwaukee Brewers and Washington Nationals

The Brewers have one of the best lineups in the Majors. Their rotation could use a top arm and their defense might be lacking, but they did add a couple young pitchers with upside to their rotation. As for the Nationals, they lost Harper, but Soto looks like one of the best young hitters in the game. Their rotation got deeper with the addition of Corbin, this team will still win games.

John Principe: Washington Nationals and Milwaukee Brewers

Even more clogged than the AL side, teams in contention who I don’t have winning divisions include the Nationals, Braves, Mets, Brewers, Cubs, Pirates, Reds, Rockies and Giants. There are clearly four or five teams of that bunch a little closer to the playoffs, and two of those, the Nats and Brewers, stand out to me as teams who I see absolutely making the playoffs.

Ben Rolfe: Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers

Both of these teams just have more talent and depth across their roster than the other contenders. The Braves, Brewers, Cardinals and Nationals will all push them hard in what could be an amazing nine horse race for playoff spots in the NL.

Mike Quilty: Atlanta Braves and Chicago Cubs

Atlanta added former MVP Josh Donaldson and reunited with Brian McCann. With a number of young talented pitching prospects, Atlanta’s looking to get back on top. My second pick is the Chicago Cubs, who I have making a run this year after losing the WC game last year at home. I think this team along with Joe Maddon will be hungry to atone for last year.

World Series

Thom Howland: Red Sox over Nationals in 6 games

The Red Sox go back-to-back with a healthy Sale, a much better playoff performance from Mookie, and too much playoff experience up and down the lineup. The Nationals starters push the Sox to six games, but they won’t have enough in the end.

Scott Frizzell: Astros over Nationals in five games

The Astros will take back the American League over the Red Sox in the ALCS. The Nationals, with their deep rotation, will finally come out of the NL despite being a Wild Card. However, the Astros lineup should be much better and they have the pitching to match.

John Principe: Phillies over Astros in six games

Despite making their second trip in three years, I expect the Astros to encounter issues when it comes to Philly. The Phillies lineup is one of the only ones to rival Houston’s, and to me, Philly’s rotation gets it done more than Houston’s. Phillies win a World Series in Bryce’s first season.

Ben Rolfe: Cubs over Astros in six games

The Cubs ensure that fans do not have to wait a long time to see a second title. Heartbreak for the Astros but they once again demonstrate they are the class of a very top heavy American League.

Mike Quilty: Red Sox over Dodgers

I have the Sox repeating in a rematch of last year. Boston has too much talent defensively with a great rotation and stacked lineup to lose to the Dodgers. Boston will figure out the closer situation and will be off to the races again in 2019. The Dodgers will make it back to the World Series for the third straight year, trying to win it all for the first time since 1988, but will ultimately fall short to Boston as they did in 2018.

What the Machado Deal Means for Boston

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Finally. It took until February the 19th, but Manny Machado has found his new home. Machado is now on his way to San Diego for the next decade. This has to be close to the best case scenario for Boston. The former Dodger was rumored to be between the Yankees, White Sox and Phillies. So with the Red Sox’ rival, a fellow AL competitor and a potential NL World Series representative all missing out on a generational player, the Sox have to be happy with how things culminated. If Machado had chosen a different path in free agency it could’ve really changed things. However, since he is about to be a Padre, let’s analyze how the other scenarios could have affected Boston and its future.

Scenario One: Machado picks the other Sox

Of the three candidates who were tied to Manny all winter, the White Sox posed the smallest threat. Their team isn’t quite ready to contend, with a lot of young pieces on the major league roster still trying to find their place in the league. If the White Sox could’ve have pulled Machado along with Bryce Harper, then they would be much closer to contention. However, even the current White Sox roster + Machado would still be unlikely to win their division. The battle of the Sox will occur seven times this year, which is about the yearly average that the two teams play. Not having to play Machado an extra seven games a year is definitely a small win for the Red Sox.

Scenario Two: Machado heads to the City of Brotherly Love

This scenario scares me as much as any. As is, the Phillies have a roster that is capable of doing damage deep into October. They have big bats, a solid bullpen, and an ace heading their rotation. If you add a star like Manny Machado to the lineup Philly already has, they’re likely the easy favorite to come out of the NL. Now this wouldn’t be the end of the world for Boston. You might remember them beating this Machado guy in the World Series once before. The Phillies really could’ve made a splash by signing Machado and/or Harper, and it would have vaulted them to the top of the NL and near the top of the league. Unfortunately for Phillies fans, ownership wasn’t willing to meet his demands. This doesn’t take the Phillies out of World Series contention by any means, but for a potential World Series matchup with the Phillies, this certainly makes life easier on Boston.

Scenario Three: Machado joins the Evil Empire

Okay, this scenario is the most scary. Yeah, the Sox handled Machado in the division before. Yes, they just beat him in the World Series. And yes, they just eliminated the Yankees in four games. However, this would have been very, very scary. With Manny joining a lineup of Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Gary Sanchez would be lethal. He would have the opportunity to play shortstop for the New York Yankees, something millions of kids grew up dreaming about. The Yankees were always rumored to be on Manny, and at times it felt like it was inevitable. However, the Yankees lost too much ground in the Machado sweepstakes in the last couple of weeks. The repercussions of Manny coming to New York are obvious. Roughly twenty times a season over the next decade we’d have to face him. Even though the Red Sox starters have pitched him well over his career, that is still a task that Boston is lucky they don’t have to face.

Classic!

Changes For Pedroia? Cora’s Got This

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Spring training is kicking into high gear, with pitchers and catchers reported and the rest of the players streaming in daily. One of the great things is Alex Cora’s regular press conferences. Today he had some things to say about changes for Dustin Pedroia, among other things:

Alex Cora meets with the press at Jet Blue Park in Fort Myers

Still The Laser Show

The money quote comes around the 4:30 mark. When asked about Dustin Pedroia this was his answer:

“He’s in Tom Brady mode…He’s been doing it since 2006, so nothing’s different.”

Alex Cora on Dustin Pedroia

It is Cora’s bond with his players, especially with his former padawan Pedroia, that allow him to know them inside out, and coach them appropriately. Cora kicks off his answer about Pedroia with this positive comment, comparing him with the GOAT, before getting to the heart of the issue.

Slowing Down

Earlier today Pedroia had his opening press conference. And, as Sean McAdam writes, his career is filled with uncertainty.

“I’ve definitely worked pretty hard to get to this point, but I’m taking it one step at a time.”

Dustin Pedroia from Jet Blue Park in Fort Myers FL

Cora laid out the new plan for the hard charging D-Ped:

“He know’s there’s certain days that there’s…no on the field stuff for him”

This is, frankly, a complete sea change on everything to do with Pedroia. This was a guy who would take infield from his knees when his left foot was in a boot in the summer of 2010. A guy who pushed things way too hard and ended up playing only three games in 2018.

Where We’re Going

Cora has said that he’s looking for around 120 games for Pedroia this year. Before this winter, Pedroia would be fighting back, insisting he could play 150. But Alex Cora has the same touch with players coming back from injury that he does when making winning moves in the postseason.

“We talked a little bit two days ago about workload and all that. He understands that for this (Pedroia’s comeback) to happen he has to stay with us.”

Imagine John Farrell trying this. But Cora can lay out a plan, and talk about ‘staying with us’, and have it come across naturally and with authority.

Staying Positive

Cora went on to talk about how things happened last year, and how he feels about how Pedroia handled his lost 2018. This includes going back on the DL on June 2nd when the team was in Houston, after returning on May 25th on the roster move that rocked baseball, Hanley Ramirez being designated for assignment.

“He did an outstanding job last year. He was honest with us in Houston. When he came back from Arizona (rehab) he was a great teammate, a great leader.”

Alex Cora on Dustin Pedroia’s injury plagued 2018

Cora is telling us how much he believes in ‘Pedey’. There are shades of Terry Francona, and a proud big brother thing going on here, really driving home the family atmosphere that exists in the Red Sox clubhouse.

So where does Alex Cora see this going? After mirroring Pedroia from earlier, talking about taking it day by day, the eventual path to Opening Day on March 28th in Seattle?

“Like I’ve been saying all along, he’ll be leading off for us.”

With Pedroia on board and Cora leading the way, Pedroia has a chance to have his most successful season since 2016. It’s easy to imagine a line-drive single leading off the game, with Mookie and JD Martinez coming up behind him.

Pedroia isn’t full of bluster and proclamations. Alex Cora has his back, and his trust. And with rumors of Machado going to the Yankees, we could be in for as entertaining a summer as we had in 2018, which is pretty incredible.

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The Greatest Red Sox Legends by Uniform Number: 36-40

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The greatest Red Sox to wear the numbers 36-40 is next up in the series.  Although as a group this one drops off a bit, there are still some good names here.  One is a postseason hero, while another is the oldest player to win a professional game.

Number 36 – Tom Gordon

Tom Gordon wasn’t with the Red Sox a long time, nor was he always effective, but he did enough to be the choice at number 36.   Gordon signed with the Red Sox as a starting pitcher for 1996.  Despite a 12-9 record, Gordon was not effective, allowing more earned runs than any other pitcher in baseball.  Gordon was pitching better the following season despite a 6-9 record, but was moved to the closer’s role following the epic trade of Heathcliff Slocumb.  Gordon saved 11 games to close out the season.

1998 was Gordon’s signature season for the team.  He made his first All-Star Game that year and led the league in saves.  His 46 saves still stand as a Red Sox franchise record for one season.  He was 7-4 with a 2.71 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in the fantastic year.  He only blew one game, which came in Mid-April.  The next season he extended his streak to 54 consecutive saves without blowing one, a Major League record.  At the end of May he had a 2.08 ERA with 11 saves and zero blown saves.  He blew back-to-back games in June and didn’t pitch again until the very end of the season.  Gordon would have to undergo Tommy John surgery for a torn UCL.

Honorable Mentions: Junichi Tazawa, Aaron Sele, Mike Myers

Number 37 – Bill Lee

The “Spaceman” gets the nod over Hideki Okajima for number 37.  Both of them boast strong arguments.  Lee pitched much longer and was an effective starting pitcher, so he’s my choice.  He still plays baseball where he can find the opportunity, and in 2010 was the winning pitcher for the Brockton Rox, becoming the oldest person to ever win a professional baseball game.

Lee broke in with the Red Sox in 1969 and spent most of the seventies with the club.  He started pitching mostly out of the bullpen, going 16-6 with a 2.95 ERA and 7 saves between 1971 and 1972.  In 1973 he moved to the starting rotation and made the all-star team.  He finished the year at 17-11 with a 2.75 ERA.  This was the first of three consecutive seasons winning 17 games for “Spaceman.”

After a couple down seasons, Lee was having a bounce back year in 1978, when Don Zimmer inexplicably banished him to the bullpen as the team collapsed down the stretch.  Lee pitched out of the bullpen three times in September, and never after September 10th.  The move made zero sense, and may have helped aid the teams collapse.  Lee finished the season with a 3.46 ERA over 24 starts and four relief appearances.  He finished his Red Sox career with 94 wins.

Honorable Mentions: Hideki Okajima, Jimmy Piersall, Heath Hembree

Number 38 – Curt Schilling

Curt Schilling was a huge acquisition for Theo Epstein and the Red Sox, and his presence paid immediate dividends.  Schilling solidified himself as one of the all-time great postseason performers.  He also seemed to wrap up his spot in Cooperstown while in Boston, but the writer’s association has yet to vote him in.

Schilling’s first season in Boston cemented him as a Red Sox hero, helping break the 86 year World Series drought.  He led the American League with 21 wins, going 21-6 with a 3.26 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 203 strike outs.  He finished second in the Cy Young vote for the third time in four seasons. In the playoffs, he dominated as usual.  After injuring his ankle in game one of the ALCS, Schilling famously had a surgery that temporarily allowed him to pitch, while putting off the main surgery until the offseason.  On a hobble ankle, bleeding through his sock, Schilling returned for game six and allowed only one run over seven innings to pick up the win.  The effort was heroic.  In the World Series, Schilling allowed just an unearned run over six innings in Game 2 to pick up another win.

Schilling had difficulty recovering from his offseason surgery and struggled in 2005, even pitching out of the pen.  In 2006 he was back to pitching 200 innings and winning 15 games.  After a solid, yet unspectacular 2007, Schilling stepped up his game for the playoffs.  He was 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA including another World Series victory in the postseason.  Schilling finished his Red Sox career at 53-29 in the regular season, and 6-1 in the postseason.

Honorable Mentions: Jim Willoughby, Jeff Gray

Number 39 – Mike Greenwell

Mike Greenwell was a fantastic player early in his career, and finished with a career .303 batting average. He homered four times in 31 at-bats during his first cup of coffee in 1985.  As a rookie in 1987, Greenwell batted .328 with 19 home runs and a stellar .956 OPS.  By the next year he was an MVP candidate.

1988 was “Gator’s” signature season.  He finished second in the MVP vote to roided up Jose Canseco.  Greenwell was red-hot during the summer months, finishing the season with a .325/.416./.531/.946 batting line, 22 home runs, 39 doubles and eight triples.  He walked 87 times that year versus only 38 strike outs.  Greenwell made his first All-Star Game and won the Silver Slugger.

Greenwell was an all-star again in 1989, batting .308 and driving home 95 runs.  Greenwell remained a good hitter until the end, but never hit for the power he did in his first two seasons.  He rebounded from an injury-plagued 1992 to bat .315 with 38 doubles in 93 games.  He battled a bad back and injuries the rest of his career, which came to an end after the 1996 season despite a .295 average.  He had one huge final game that season, hitting two home runs and driving in all nine Red Sox runs in a 9-8 victory over Seattle in September.

Honorable Mention: Jarrod Saltalamacchia

Number 40 – Rick Wise

Rick Wise had a nice career, but that was mostly with Philadelphia.  He pitched a no-hitter with the Phillies and homered twice in the same game!  It wasn’t the last time he would hit two home runs in a game either.

Wise came to the Red Sox in 1974, and had a shortened season due to arm problems.  He recovered to win 19 games in 1975.  He also nearly had another no-hitter, losing one with two outs in the ninth inning against the Brewers.  Wise was solid in 1976, going 14-11 with a 3.53 ERA.

1977 was his final season in Boston, going 11-5 despite a 4.77 ERA.  He was then included in a trade to Cleveland to get Dennis Eckersley to Boston.  Therefore, his impact for the Red Sox went beyond what he accomplished on the field with them.  He finished his Red Sox career 47-32 over four seasons.

Honorable Mentions: Ken “Hawk” Harrelson, Billy Conigliaro, Erik Hanson

 

Featured picture from Lookout Landing

What to Do with Craig Kimbrel

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Another night; another heart attack brought on by Red Sox closer Craig Kimbrel, but another win. This has become commonplace in close Red Sox victories this postseason, as Kimbrel has been a disaster on the mound, but has ultimately finished out each game successfully; somehow.

Kimbrel appears to be a disaster waiting to happen, so what should the Red Sox do with him moving forward?

Pitch Him In Lower Leverage Situation

I think Kimbrel needs to be taken out of the closer role, at least temporarily. He absolutely cannot be trusted right now. Even if the next game is close, I would use other pitchers in the late innings.

If there is an opportunity in the near future to pitch Kimbrel in a game that isn’t very close, the Red Sox should take it. I’m not sure if nerves are playing a factor, they likely are, but Kimbrel can barely find the strike zone.

Maybe working in a lower leverage spot Kimbrel can find the strike zone. Maybe he won’t be able to, but you can’t have a guy throwing ball after ball trying to close out games.

There have been multiple times this postseason where Kimbrel has been brought on to protect a three-run lead and hasn’t thrown strikes. In that situation, the only goal is to throw strikes; a home run can’t beat you, throw the ball over the plate and make them work for it. Kimbrel has been giving the opposition baserunners without much fight.

Kimbrel’s Struggles

Craig Kimbrel has pitched in four games this postseason and allowed the opposition to score in all four. Just let that sink in for a moment.

His ERA is standing at 8.44 after last night and he has put 13 baserunners on in only 5.1 innings pitched. 13! Kimbrel has walked five batters and hit two as he struggles to locate his pitches. On numerous occasions he has yanked his fastball, missing so far outside the catcher is left reaching as far as he can to corral it. Other times, his breaking ball is a wild pitch waiting to happen. He has been playing with fire and somehow has yet to be fully burned. It’s only a matter of time if something is not done.

In game four of the ALDS, pitching with a three run lead, Kimbrel walked two batters and hit another. He threw 28 pitches to get three outs, less than half of them going for strikes. He came about as close to blowing that game as one could without actually blowing it.

His next outing he gave up back-to-back two out hits before a fly ball from Alex Bregman nearly tied the game.

Last night was another heart attack, walking three batters and hitting another. He faced 11 batters to close out the three run lead. Kimbrel has now thrown a whopping 101 pitches in his four postseason appearances. And then there is this:

Other Options

Despite everyone being worried about the Red Sox bullpen entering the postseason, Kimbrel has been the problem. Others have pitched very well, excluding Brandon Workman. Workman shouldn’t pitch unless the game is a blowout, he’s the only guy that’s been worse than Kimbrel.

Ryan Brasier struggled in his first postseason appearance but did not allow a run. He seemed to have cleared his postseason jitters with that performance because he has been nails since. Brasier is up to seven scoreless innings over seven appearances.

Matt Barnes has also come up big, netting a big strike out looking to end the seventh last night. Barnes has now thrown 5.2 shutout innings over six appearances this postseason. These are currently the Sox two most trustworthy relievers, like it or not. At least for now, they should be getting the highest leverage spots.

In addition to them, others are also performing well. Heath Hembree has thrown 3.2 shutout innings, albeit not in any tight spots. Joe Kelly has stepped up his game, showing the good side of his pitching. Kelly has allowed one run over 5.1 innings without issuing a walk. The strike throwing is refreshing.

Ideally Kimbrel is the ninth inning guy; he’s been doing it a long time and it helps set up the bullpen better. But for the moment, he can not be trusted with the way he is throwing, and the Red Sox need to try someone else.

Red Sox Hang On, Draw First Blood in ALDS

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A few quick thoughts on the return of Red Sox-Yankees postseason baseball, right after I hand out some high fives to Will, Chuckie, Morgan, and Billy…

What a way to kick things off, huh? The Sox jumped out early, and managed to hang on for a 5-4 win to take Game 1 at Fenway Park. Boston hit the ground running, thanks to a 3-run laser over the Monster from JD Martinez:

From there, the Sox seemed like they were on cruise control, extending the lead to 5-0 after plating a couple more runs in the third. Everything was working in their favor early. Guys were getting on base. Alleged “Red Sox Killer” JA Happ was bounced after 2+ innings. Chris Sale was dealing.

Then, Alex Cora decided to take his ace out in the top of the 6th, and it all (almost) went to hell.

I completely understand the logic behind pulling Sale. He wasn’t right all September, and the plan all season long has been to conserve the lanky lefty as much as possible. Sale also had allowed two hits already that inning, and had thrown 93 pitches (his highest total since July 27th).

On the flip side, Sale was nearly untouchable while he was in the game. His much scrutinized fastball velocity returned to the 94-96 mph range, after sitting in the low 90s during his final regular season start. His slider was in peak form, both in terms of break and placement:

Sale was charged with 2 runs in 5.1 innings, while striking out 8. All things considered, it was a great bounce back performance from his last postseason start. However, it wasn’t enough for Cora to trust him to work out of a 6th inning jam.

The Yankees immediately stormed back with Sale out, while Ryan Brasier and Brandon Workman took turns spiking curves 8 feet in front of home plate. To Workman’s credit, he did manage to stop the sixth inning bleeding with a BALLSY 3-2 hook to Gleyber Torres with the bases juiced.

Cora stuck with Workman to start the 7th, and he promptly gave up a pair of singles to Andrew McCutchen and Aaron Judge. Enter Matt Barnes, who then walked Brett Gardner to load the bases.

Barnes eventually was able to slither out of trouble, allowing only one run to score on a fielder’s choice.

All of this is to say that things were so indescribably shaky that Cora felt the need to bring in former AL Cy Young Award winner and scheduled Game 3 starter Rick Porcello to bridge the gap to Craig Kimbrel. It worked – Porcello recorded two 8th inning outs on only 15 pitches to set up a 4-out save for Kimbrel. However, it was a move that reeked of desperation. Perhaps a more seasoned manager would not have pressed the Porcello panic button in Game 1. Either way, it goes to show that this Sox bullpen is clearly going to be a problem going forward this postseason.

Kimbrel was able to shut the door on this one, despite giving up a leadoff home run to Judge in the 9th. Outside of that, Kimbrel had his good stuff, including this obscene knuckle-curve to hand Giancarlo Stanton his Golden Sombrero:

Kimbrel mopped up Luke Voit with a 98 mph heater to end it, and give the Sox a white-knuckle playoff win. Phew.

Other Observations

  • David Price is on the hill tonight for the Sox. I feel better about him in a Game 2 at home than an elimination game in Yankee Stadium. That isn’t saying much.
  • The Red Sox bullpen wasn’t great (le duh). The bottom of the lineup, however, was even worse. Nunez, Kinsler, Leon and Bradley went a combined 1-13. Granted, the Sox have been top-heavy all season long. But it’s hard to feel great about their chances this month if the bottom half is going to be a collective zero.
  • It’s hard to fear Stanton after a 4 K effort at the plate. I am, however, terrified of Voit and Judge. Just wanted to update where my head is at.
  • Sandy Leon was the real MVP last night. He made block after block while the Red Sox middle relievers played “Who Can Bounce A Baseball Best?”. On a night where Ron Darling described Gary Sanchez as an “excellent” defensive catcher, it was nice to see Leon step up and show why he’s in the lineup.
  • All that being said, HUGE win in Game 1, to (somewhat) silence the doubters that this 108-win team would get steamrolled by their second-place rivals. We’re on to Game 2.

Red Sox-Yankees ALDS Preview Extravaganza

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It’s pretty hard to believe it’s been 14 years since we’ve had a playoff series featuring Major League Baseball’s premier rivalry. The Red Sox and Yankees will kick off their first postseason matchup since 2004 later tonight, and on paper it looks to be a doozy. Two 100-win juggernauts. Over $400 million in combined payroll. Stars all over the diamond. History everywhere. I can’t wait.

I’ll be breaking down both sides of this series, and then picking a winner at the end. But before we get into all of that, let’s take a little trip down memory lane:

Okay, glad we got that out of our systems. On to the good stuff.

Starting Lineup

The Red Sox led the majors in just about every major offensive category this season. They placed first in total runs, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging, and wOBA. Boston was led by MVP-caliber seasons from Mookie Betts (.346/.438/.640) and JD Martinez (.330/.402/.629), though the Sox received significant contributions from others as well. Andrew Benintendi improved dramatically on his rookie campaign. Jackie Bradley Jr. slashed .282/.349/.502 over his final 284 plate appearances after a dismal start. Xander Bogaerts finally shook off his second half demons to post a career year.

And yet, there are some holes, and question marks (specifically at second base, third base, and catcher). Meanwhile, the Yankees offense is just as potent, if not more so. The Bronx Bombers tied the Dodgers for the best wRC+ in baseball (the Red Sox were a close 3rd). They also broke the Major League record for home runs in a season, with 269. That last one is a big point in the Yankees favor, as teams who hit more HR tend to have more success in October.

The slugging starts with Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge, who both homered in Wednesday’s Wild Card game. Luke Voit has been a revelation at first base, where his 188 OPS+ over 148 PA has lengthened an already long lineup and provided a boon desperately needed after poor seasons from Greg Bird and Gary Sanchez. That’s not to mention the production from rookies Miguel Andujar and Gleybar Torres. Plus, Brian Cashman was able to throw former NL MVP Andrew McCutchen into the mix in August.

The Sox have a great offense, but it feels like New York’s is a bit more formidable for this time of year.

Slight Edge: Yankees

Starting Pitching

Here’s how the first three starting pitching matchups seem to be shaking out:

Game 1 – J.A. Happ vs. Chris Sale

Game 2 – Mashiro Tanaka vs. David Price

Game 3 – Rick Porcello vs. Luis Severino

That certainly feels like it favors the Red Sox. Three AL Cy Young Award winners should be enough to tip this category in Boston’s favor. That is, until you include each pitcher’s career postseason ERA…

Game 1 – J.A. Happ (3.72) vs. Chris Sale (8.38)

Game 2 – Masahiro Tanaka (1.44) vs. David Price (5.03)

Game 3 – Rick Porcello (5.47) vs. Luis Severino (4.50)

Look, I get it. Postseason baseball is a small sample size, and past performance isn’t always indicative of future performance, especially in that scenario. But it’s hard to feel too confident, given Price’s non-Rays playoff history, Porcello’s inability to keep the ball in the yard, and Sale’s dip in velocity since returning from multiple summer DL stints. The Yankees starters might not have the same upside, but they certainly feel less volatile. The Happ acquisition continues to loom large. He’s undefeated since joining the Yankees, and has a career 2.98 ERA against the Red Sox. If he can beat Sale in Game 1, it’ll be a bad omen for the Sox’s chances through the weekend. I’m choosing to trust that the Red Sox starters are ready to turn a corner this postseason, but I don’t feel great about it.

Slight Edge: Red Sox

Bullpen

I’ll save you the suspense. This is a huge win (obviously) for the Yankees, and will likely be the deciding factor should the Yankees come out on top. The Red Sox bullpen, while much maligned over the past month, has actually been perfectly above average this season. Craig Kimbrel still looms at the end of games as a premier closer, and rebounded from a mid-summer swoon with a 13 appearance stretch where he allowed only 3 hits and 1 earned run between 8/12 and 9/21. Still, a 4 run implosion in his second to last appearance of the year against the lowly Orioles bumped his ERA to 2.74, the second worst mark of his career.

The rest of the Sox bullpen is fine. Solid, unspectacular, and far from reliable (unless you’re really into the Matt Barnes Experience).

The Yankees ‘pen, conversely, reads like a damn All-Star team. There’s Chapman and Britton. There’s Betances and Robertson. Chad Green may not have as big of a name as his teammates, but he might be the most consistent of the bunch. New York can trot any and all of these guys out there in a high leverage situation, and be reasonably comfortable that the outcome will be in their favor. They led the league in reliever fWAR, and while the Red Sox have had their share of come-from-behind wins this year, they’ll be hard pressed to overcome any substantial deficits in this series.

Major Edge: Yankees

Bench X Factor

Steve Pearce has been a terrific mid-season addition for the Red Sox, providing a boost at a premium offensive position as Mitch Moreland struggled down the stretch. But Brock Holt is the guy here. He can play nearly every position on the diamond, and had perhaps the best all-around season of his career. Holt slashed .277/.362/.411 with a 109 OPS+ this year, and had plenty of clutch moments off the bench:

Holt had 5 hits in 15 pinch-hitting plate appearances, 4 of which went for extra bases. Alex Cora will almost definitely call his number in a tight spot again this series, and Holt will need to deliver.

For the Yankees, Austin Romine *should* be the starting catcher. But, because the baseball gods would never want to deprive us of the joy of watching Gary Sanchez trot after yet another passed ball, he’s stuck in a platoon. If Aaron Boone is smart, he’ll put his best lineup on the field. Fingers crossed nobody gives him a heads up.

Edge: Red Sox

Manager

Cora has been a breath of fresh air for the Red Sox off the field and in the clubhouse this season. After two years of underachieving relative to their talent, the Sox took off under their first year manager’s watch. Cora hasn’t been perfect with his in game decisions, and it does seem like he lingers with guys a bit longer than I would like. However, he’s been excellent as rookie managers go on the whole.

I’ll just say I don’t get the same vibe from Boone, and leave it at that. Plus, I kind of miss Joe Girardi and his binder.

Edge: Red Sox

The Pick

I really want to pick the Yankees. While I think the Red Sox are a better team overall, and better suited for a full 162 game slate, New York feels built for the postseason, especially a short series. The bullpen discrepancy is a major check in the Yankees favor. In a series that figures to be as tight as this one, such an advantage is a major red flag for Boston.

But screw that. What’s the point of writing for a Red Sox blog if you don’t think the best regular season team in franchise history can make it out of the first round?

RED SOX IN 5