Much has been made over the years, into this postseason, about David Price. It goes without saying that he hasn’t been Sandy Koufax or Madison Bumgarner in the playoffs. However, there were many elements of Sunday night’s start that provide us with signs that Price has turned a corner. For the first time in his career, his team won a game that he started. It goes deeper than that, from pitching out of jams to limiting damage.
Game Two:
Last night, David Price wasn’t perfect, but he was good enough. The walks were a little concerning, but the overall perseverance of Price was enough to earn him another start in a potential game six. The line isn’t gorgeous, four runs on four walks and five hits, but it did the trick. The bullpen did its job like I tried to tell you all before. The Sox won, which is obviously the priority, and Price showed progress in his ability to pitch in October.
Looking at the four runs, they came on two big hits. One came in the second off the bat of George Springer, and another in the third from Marwin Gonzalez. Both were strikes, yes, but neither were bad pitches by any means. Springer was able to swing inside out and just tuck one over Steve Pearce‘s head. With two outs in the inning, both runners were able to score easily, but that was an at-bat that easily could’ve gone Price’s way. When it comes to the Gonzalez home run, again, it wasn’t a bad pitch at all. In fact, the entire at-bat was well calculated and executed. The Astros slugger was just able to get his hands around on a tough pitch up and in and he drove it. Neither pitch that was costing of runs was a bad pitch, just a better swing.
Looking Ahead to Price in Game 6:
So, with everything considered, I believe Price actually pitched very well. If it were anybody else besides Gonzalez that came to the plate in the fifth, he would’ve stayed in the game. In all likelihood, he would’ve been in position for his first career postseason win as a starter. Alex Cora made the right decision matchup-wise, but David’s stuff was good enough for him to pitch another inning.
Going forward, Price deserves another start and he will deliver in the said start. He was very reliant on his fastball and seemed to shy away from the changeup. If he can gain some traction when it comes to throwing that changeup, he could really stifle this gritty Astros lineup. Barring a three-game sweep of the games in Houston, Price will start the biggest game of his career, a game six at Fenway Park in an elimination game. David Price has earned it, and he will come through again for this team.
A few quick thoughts on the return of Red Sox-Yankees postseason baseball, right after I hand out some high fives to Will, Chuckie, Morgan, and Billy…
What a way to kick things off, huh? The Sox jumped out early, and managed to hang on for a 5-4 win to take Game 1 at Fenway Park. Boston hit the ground running, thanks to a 3-run laser over the Monster from JD Martinez:
From there, the Sox seemed like they were on cruise control, extending the lead to 5-0 after plating a couple more runs in the third. Everything was working in their favor early. Guys were getting on base. Alleged “Red Sox Killer” JA Happ was bounced after 2+ innings. Chris Sale was dealing.
Then, Alex Cora decided to take his ace out in the top of the 6th, and it all (almost) went to hell.
I completely understand the logic behind pulling Sale. He wasn’t right all September, and the plan all season long has been to conserve the lanky lefty as much as possible. Sale also had allowed two hits already that inning, and had thrown 93 pitches (his highest total since July 27th).
On the flip side, Sale was nearly untouchable while he was in the game. His much scrutinized fastball velocity returned to the 94-96 mph range, after sitting in the low 90s during his final regular season start. His slider was in peak form, both in terms of break and placement:
Sale was charged with 2 runs in 5.1 innings, while striking out 8. All things considered, it was a great bounce back performance from his last postseason start. However, it wasn’t enough for Cora to trust him to work out of a 6th inning jam.
The Yankees immediately stormed back with Sale out, while Ryan Brasier and Brandon Workman took turns spiking curves 8 feet in front of home plate. To Workman’s credit, he did manage to stop the sixth inning bleeding with a BALLSY 3-2 hook to Gleyber Torres with the bases juiced.
Brandon Workman striking out Gleyber Torres with the bases loaded and a full count was HUGE pic.twitter.com/da5eYGwQtd
Cora stuck with Workman to start the 7th, and he promptly gave up a pair of singles to Andrew McCutchen and Aaron Judge. Enter Matt Barnes, who then walked Brett Gardner to load the bases.
Barnes eventually was able to slither out of trouble, allowing only one run to score on a fielder’s choice.
All of this is to say that things were so indescribably shaky that Cora felt the need to bring in former AL Cy Young Award winner and scheduled Game 3 starter Rick Porcello to bridge the gap to Craig Kimbrel. It worked – Porcello recorded two 8th inning outs on only 15 pitches to set up a 4-out save for Kimbrel. However, it was a move that reeked of desperation. Perhaps a more seasoned manager would not have pressed the Porcello panic button in Game 1. Either way, it goes to show that this Sox bullpen is clearly going to be a problem going forward this postseason.
Kimbrel was able to shut the door on this one, despite giving up a leadoff home run to Judge in the 9th. Outside of that, Kimbrel had his good stuff, including this obscene knuckle-curve to hand Giancarlo Stanton his Golden Sombrero:
Kimbrel mopped up Luke Voit with a 98 mph heater to end it, and give the Sox a white-knuckle playoff win. Phew.
Other Observations
David Price is on the hill tonight for the Sox. I feel better about him in a Game 2 at home than an elimination game in Yankee Stadium. That isn’t saying much.
The Red Sox bullpen wasn’t great (le duh). The bottom of the lineup, however, was even worse. Nunez, Kinsler, Leon and Bradley went a combined 1-13. Granted, the Sox have been top-heavy all season long. But it’s hard to feel great about their chances this month if the bottom half is going to be a collective zero.
It’s hard to fear Stanton after a 4 K effort at the plate. I am, however, terrified of Voit and Judge. Just wanted to update where my head is at.
Sandy Leon was the real MVP last night. He made block after block while the Red Sox middle relievers played “Who Can Bounce A Baseball Best?”. On a night where Ron Darling described Gary Sanchez as an “excellent” defensive catcher, it was nice to see Leon step up and show why he’s in the lineup.
All that being said, HUGE win in Game 1, to (somewhat) silence the doubters that this 108-win team would get steamrolled by their second-place rivals. We’re on to Game 2.
It’s pretty hard to believe it’s been 14 years since we’ve had a playoff series featuring Major League Baseball’s premier rivalry. The Red Sox and Yankees will kick off their first postseason matchup since 2004 later tonight, and on paper it looks to be a doozy. Two 100-win juggernauts. Over $400 million in combined payroll. Stars all over the diamond. History everywhere. I can’t wait.
I’ll be breaking down both sides of this series, and then picking a winner at the end. But before we get into all of that, let’s take a little trip down memory lane:
Okay, glad we got that out of our systems. On to the good stuff.
Starting Lineup
The Red Sox led the majors in just about every major offensive category this season. They placed first in total runs, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging, and wOBA. Boston was led by MVP-caliber seasons from Mookie Betts (.346/.438/.640) and JD Martinez (.330/.402/.629), though the Sox received significant contributions from others as well. Andrew Benintendi improved dramatically on his rookie campaign. Jackie Bradley Jr. slashed .282/.349/.502 over his final 284 plate appearances after a dismal start. Xander Bogaerts finally shook off his second half demons to post a career year.
And yet, there are some holes, and question marks (specifically at second base, third base, and catcher). Meanwhile, the Yankees offense is just as potent, if not more so. The Bronx Bombers tied the Dodgers for the best wRC+ in baseball (the Red Sox were a close 3rd). They also broke the Major League record for home runs in a season, with 269. That last one is a big point in the Yankees favor, as teams who hit more HR tend to have more success in October.
The slugging starts with Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge, who both homered in Wednesday’s Wild Card game. Luke Voit has been a revelation at first base, where his 188 OPS+ over 148 PA has lengthened an already long lineup and provided a boon desperately needed after poor seasons from Greg Bird and Gary Sanchez. That’s not to mention the production from rookies Miguel Andujar and Gleybar Torres. Plus, Brian Cashman was able to throw former NL MVP Andrew McCutchen into the mix in August.
The Sox have a great offense, but it feels like New York’s is a bit more formidable for this time of year.
Slight Edge: Yankees
Starting Pitching
Here’s how the first three starting pitching matchups seem to be shaking out:
Game 1 – J.A. Happ vs. Chris Sale
Game 2 – Mashiro Tanaka vs. David Price
Game 3 – Rick Porcello vs. Luis Severino
That certainly feels like it favors the Red Sox. Three AL Cy Young Award winners should be enough to tip this category in Boston’s favor. That is, until you include each pitcher’s career postseason ERA…
Game 1 – J.A. Happ (3.72) vs. Chris Sale (8.38)
Game 2 – Masahiro Tanaka (1.44) vs. David Price (5.03)
Game 3 – Rick Porcello (5.47) vs. Luis Severino (4.50)
Look, I get it. Postseason baseball is a small sample size, and past performance isn’t always indicative of future performance, especially in that scenario. But it’s hard to feel too confident, given Price’s non-Rays playoff history, Porcello’s inability to keep the ball in the yard, and Sale’s dip in velocity since returning from multiple summer DL stints. The Yankees starters might not have the same upside, but they certainly feel less volatile. The Happ acquisition continues to loom large. He’s undefeated since joining the Yankees, and has a career 2.98 ERA against the Red Sox. If he can beat Sale in Game 1, it’ll be a bad omen for the Sox’s chances through the weekend. I’m choosing to trust that the Red Sox starters are ready to turn a corner this postseason, but I don’t feel great about it.
Slight Edge: Red Sox
Bullpen
I’ll save you the suspense. This is a huge win (obviously) for the Yankees, and will likely be the deciding factor should the Yankees come out on top. The Red Sox bullpen, while much maligned over the past month, has actually been perfectly above average this season. Craig Kimbrel still looms at the end of games as a premier closer, and rebounded from a mid-summer swoon with a 13 appearance stretch where he allowed only 3 hits and 1 earned run between 8/12 and 9/21. Still, a 4 run implosion in his second to last appearance of the year against the lowly Orioles bumped his ERA to 2.74, the second worst mark of his career.
The rest of the Sox bullpen is fine. Solid, unspectacular, and far from reliable (unless you’re really into the Matt Barnes Experience).
The Yankees ‘pen, conversely, reads like a damn All-Star team. There’s Chapman and Britton. There’s Betances and Robertson. Chad Green may not have as big of a name as his teammates, but he might be the most consistent of the bunch. New York can trot any and all of these guys out there in a high leverage situation, and be reasonably comfortable that the outcome will be in their favor. They led the league in reliever fWAR, and while the Red Sox have had their share of come-from-behind wins this year, they’ll be hard pressed to overcome any substantial deficits in this series.
Major Edge: Yankees
Bench X Factor
Steve Pearce has been a terrific mid-season addition for the Red Sox, providing a boost at a premium offensive position as Mitch Moreland struggled down the stretch. But Brock Holt is the guy here. He can play nearly every position on the diamond, and had perhaps the best all-around season of his career. Holt slashed .277/.362/.411 with a 109 OPS+ this year, and had plenty of clutch moments off the bench:
Holt had 5 hits in 15 pinch-hitting plate appearances, 4 of which went for extra bases. Alex Cora will almost definitely call his number in a tight spot again this series, and Holt will need to deliver.
For the Yankees, Austin Romine *should* be the starting catcher. But, because the baseball gods would never want to deprive us of the joy of watching Gary Sanchez trot after yet another passed ball, he’s stuck in a platoon. If Aaron Boone is smart, he’ll put his best lineup on the field. Fingers crossed nobody gives him a heads up.
Edge: Red Sox
Manager
Cora has been a breath of fresh air for the Red Sox off the field and in the clubhouse this season. After two years of underachieving relative to their talent, the Sox took off under their first year manager’s watch. Cora hasn’t been perfect with his in game decisions, and it does seem like he lingers with guys a bit longer than I would like. However, he’s been excellent as rookie managers go on the whole.
I’ll just say I don’t get the same vibe from Boone, and leave it at that. Plus, I kind of miss Joe Girardi and his binder.
Edge: Red Sox
The Pick
I really want to pick the Yankees. While I think the Red Sox are a better team overall, and better suited for a full 162 game slate, New York feels built for the postseason, especially a short series. The bullpen discrepancy is a major check in the Yankees favor. In a series that figures to be as tight as this one, such an advantage is a major red flag for Boston.
But screw that. What’s the point of writing for a Red Sox blog if you don’t think the best regular season team in franchise history can make it out of the first round?
Red Sox manager Alex Cora made an unsurprising announcement earlier this week when he revealed that reliever Tyler Thornburg would be shut down for the remainder of 2018.
There were two glaring reasons for this call by Cora. First, Thornburg’s recovery from thoracic outlet syndrome is ongoing. That injury caused him to miss all of 2017 and much of 2018. While the 29 year-old righty made progress this season, his manager noted he was beginning to fatigue down the stretch.
However, if Thornburg had performed at a high level in his return to the Boston bullpen mix, would Cora be singing the same tune?
The second obvious reason for giving Thornburg the rest of the autumn off renders that question moot. Thornburg simply hasn’t been effective this season. He posted a 5.63 ERA over 24 innings in 25 appearances, with unflattering peripherals. His last outing was on Sept. 14th, in which he allowed three runs in 2/3rds of an inning (and two HR).
Thornburg’s velocity never really bounced back to 2016 levels, either. Per Brooks Baseball, Thornburg’s average fastball velocity was two mph slower than his last year in Milwaukee.
Mix all of that together, and the smart move was clearly to shut down Thornburg for the year. You won’t get any qualms from me there. However, it does sting to have to mark up yet another effectively lost season for one of Dave Dombrowski’s premier bullpen acquisitions, especially with so many questions swirling about this group of relievers.
The Red Sox acquired Thornburg via trade from the Brewers in December 2016. At the time, the move made total sense. Outgoing Travis Shaw had proven to be a solid, yet unspectacular corner infield option. And, after striking out on Carson Smith Boston felt that another quality reliever was the missing piece to October success.
To his credit, Thornburg was coming off of an excellent 2016. He posted a 2.67 ERA with 12.1 K/9 and 13 saves as the Brewers set-up man in front of closer Jeremy Jeffress. The hope was to combine Thornburg with Smith, to provide a formidable 7th-8th inning duo come playoff time.
Unfortunately for the Sox, things went off of the rails almost immediately. Thornburg injured his shoulder that spring, which led to a war of words between him and the front office. Thornburg claimed that a new fitness program implemented by the Red Sox training staff caused the injury, which ruffled more than a few feathers around the organization. That shoulder fatigue/soreness only worsened as the year went along. The right-hander did not throw a pitch for the Sox in 2017.
Not helping matters in all of this: Shaw has turned into a strong infield power bat for the Brew Crew. In 293 games across two seasons, Shaw has slashed .258/.348/.497 with 62 HR and a 120 OPS+. He’s amassed 8.1 bWAR over that span, compared to Thornburg’s -0.1 bWAR. Any way you slice it, the trade has been a huge win for Milwaukee, and a difficult pill to swallow for the Red Sox.
Thornburg underwent surgery in June, after his shoulder pain continued into 2018. He was finally able to make his Red Sox debut on July 6th. While this season has been a step in the right direction, it hasn’t been enough to earn him a spot on the playoff roster.
The plan is that a full, proper offseason will go a long way toward’s Thornburg’s continued recovery, and ensure he’ll be a contributing member of next season’s roster. Although, as the Red Sox have learned: people plan, and the Baseball Gods laugh.
Throughout the history of baseball, only a select handful of men have ever been regarded as a five-tool player. Even fewer were able to provide sustained success. The original example is the Say Hey Kid, Willie Mays, and then we go to legends like Barry Bonds, Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodriguez, along with the new kids on the block like Mike Trout and Bryce Harper. So we turn to this year and the culmination of what has been building for a while for Mookie Betts. We take a brief look at each of his five tools, and how they contribute to one of the most electrifying players in the sport and the clear-cut MVP of 2018.
Speed
Let us start with Betts’ most recent accomplishment, becoming a member of the 30/30 club (30 homers and 30 stolen bags), and being only the second Red Sox player to ever do so. Mookie is never afraid to push the envelope and go first to third on a ground ball. Or to steal a base even when the pitcher and catcher know it’s coming. But after three straight years of 20+ stolen bases, he was finally able to reach the elusive mark of swiping 30. There is no reason to think he’ll slow down either. The speed factor will be a huge part of his game, both at the plate and in the field, for many years to come.
Hitting for Power
For a guy that doesn’t even sniff being six feet tall, Betts still packs a big punch. He’s posted his third straight 20 home run season and this year he’s elevated his power to another level. His league-leading .643 slugging percentage is absolutely insane. It’s over a HUNDRED points higher than any of his previous seasons. He also boasts an average exit velocity of 92.2 mph, which also puts him near the top of the league. The difference is he’s doing it all with a five foot nine frame. Yet he’s still amongst the big boys like Manny Machado and Yoenis Cespedes when it comes to the raw power off the bat.
Wikimedia Commons
Hitting for Average
This was never going to be an issue for Betts in the Majors. A brilliant hitter all throughout the minor league system, he adjusted to professional pitching real quick. Only once has he posted an average under .290 in his career, and now he’s primed to win the first batting title of his career, with a .346 average going into Thursday night. He’s going to have roughly 800 hits at the culmination of 2018. Setting himself up very nicely (with good health) to have a realistic shot at reaching 3000 hits.
Defense
Buck Showalter said he was the greatest defensive right fielder he’s ever seen, and he’s been around since the 70s, need I say more? Mookie is a lock to win his third straight gold glove, and he’s only made one error out in right. One, single error… all season… which is crazy considering how often the ball is in his hand.
Arm
Last but certainly not least, is the cannon that is also known as Betts’ right arm. Of the five tools, this is the one that can be least supported by statistics. Lucky for you, all you have to do is a turn the television on when the Red Sox are playing. You’ll quickly be able to see for yourself the incredibly amazing throws that Mookie can make. Whether it’s to second, third or even gunning someone down at home, it genuinely looks too easy for Betts. He picks the ball up and next thing you know, the runner is out by five steps. Mookie did, that’s what just happened.
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Move over Tris Speaker and Smokey Joe Wood, there’s a new Sox sheriff in town.
Boston won its 106th game Monday night, defeating the hapless Orioles 6-2 at Fenway Park. With the win, the 2018 Sox have now won more regular season games than any other team in the franchise’s history. That’s a pretty incredible feat, considering the Red Sox have been around for 118 seasons.
As has been the case for nearly all of 2018, Boston’s victory was spearheaded by the AL MVP favorite. Betts was electrifying once again, going 2-5 with a 2-run homer and a stolen base.
The dinger was an absolute rocket, and capped off a four-run 2nd inning for the Sox. Orioles starter Dylan Bundy hung a 1-0 breaking ball over the dead-center of the plate, and Betts went windshield-hunting on the Mass Pike:
Getting taken deep is nothing new for Bundy; he’s allowed an MLB-worst 39 big flies this season. As for Betts, he’s certifiably on fire again. He has 10 hits in his last 20 ABs, with 3 HR and 8 doubles. He’s also only one steal away from a 30-30 season. Betts has all but locked up the MVP award with an absolutely stellar year. He leads the majors in batting average and bWAR, and has been the most consistently excellent all-around player in baseball. Betts’ 2018 season is also the best individual Red Sox season (per bWAR) since Pedro Martinez in 2000, and best by a position player since Carl Yastrzemski in 1967. In short, it’s been a historic year, on a historic team.
Eovaldi Makes His Case
The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported on Saturday that Nathan Eovaldi had a chance to supplant Eduardo Rodriguez in the playoff rotation. Eovaldi certainly made his case for the 4th spot on Monday night. He allowed only 1 run (while striking out 10 Orioles) over 5 innings of work.
Rodriguez made his first appearance out of the bullpen, as well. He followed up Eovaldi’s start with two shutout innings of his own.
Manager Alex Cora has said who starts Game 4 of the ALDS will be matchup dependent. At this point it makes sense that Eovaldi has closed the gap on Rodriguez. E-Rod has been inconsistent in four starts this month after missing half of July and all of August on the disabled list. He’s posted a 5.79 ERA in his September starts, mixing a pair of solid outings against sub-.500 teams with a pair of poor efforts vs. playoff-bound Houston and New York.
Of course, who is actually slated to start that game could be a moot point. Should the Red Sox sweep (or get swept), or fall into a 2-1 series deficit, we might not see a 4th starter in the ALDS, anyway. Still, it’s a key theme to keep an eye on over the final week of the season.
The Red Sox have made history, and checked all of the boxes that they’ve needed to check this season. They can effectively plan for the postseason, having secured their place at the top of Major League Baseball and as the best regular season Red Sox team in franchise history.
Time will tell whether or not this has any bearing in October, when the records are reset to 0-0 and chaos reigns supreme.
A lot has been made recently of the apparent “bullpen issues” for the first place Boston Red Sox. I’m here to calm everyone’s worries and remind you that this team is on a historic pace for a reason. Yeah, maybe the bullpen has faltered at times. Yeah, there definitely are some pitchers that you don’t want to see come running to the mound in October. However, with all that said, this bullpen has many valuable members. Many of whom have played a significant role in the double-digit division lead.
The Back End
Let’s start with the anchor at the back, Craig Kimbrel. While it may not be his most dominant season, he is still an elite closer. That is a huge asset to have in the bullpen come postseason time. He’s one of the most overpowering relievers in the league, and his strikeout numbers prove that. He’s easily handled all of his saves in September and has posted a 1.29 ERA over his last 7 appearances. The strength of this team has been the offense, and with the team being up a significant amount of runs, Kimbrel has been able to stay nice and rested. He’ll be fresh in the playoffs.
(Wikimedia Commons)
The Set Up
To the eighth inning we head, and Alex Cora has multiple studs out in the bullpen that can bridge the game to Kimbrel. A healthy Matt Barnes is crucial, and we should get that at least by the playoffs. People can say what they want about Barnes and his control, but it’s no coincidence that he’s sixth out of all relievers in baseball with over FOURTEEN strikeouts per nine. When Matt Barnes is 100%, he’s got 100% of my trust. If he isn’t quite healthy yet then turn to Ryan Brasier. He’s been more than the Sox could’ve dreamed of when they called him up in July. He revitalized his career in Japan, now he’s pumping gas out of the Boston bullpen with a 1.80 ERA. Brasier is going to be key in the postseason, no matter what his role is.
(Keith Allison/Flickr)
The Middle of the Bullpen
A few other guys who are going to work their way into the middle of the game for the Sox are also going to play a crucial role. Joe Kelly has looked a little shaky at times, but that dude has the right mentality to be pitching in the postseason in front of 40,000 screaming Yankees fans in NYC. Knuckleballers tend to frighten fans at times, but Steven Wright has been criminally underrated this year. If that knuckleball can dance in the playoffs like it has been all year, we might have the second coming of Tim Wakefield.
Brandon Workman has been solid this season, and he’s also done the whole World Series thing before. I would feel confident if he were to trot out for the 7th inning in a tight ballgame. The last name I’m going to toss out there is a huge x-factor, seeing as he might be the only lefty in the pen, and that is Bobby Poyner. Don’t sleep on Poyner playing a large role in specific matchup situations for Cora. However, when he is on, he has as good of stuff as anyone out in that pen.
(Keith Allison/Flickr)
Feel reassured yet? You should! This bullpen only gets flak because it’s the only glaring “weakness” on a team with 100+ wins. They have one of the best closers on the planet mixed with multiple, reliable options to get from the starters to the closer. Everybody just relax and breathe, this bullpen is solid and this team is set for a deep run.
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Tonight is David Price‘s most important start in a Red Sox uniform to date. Yes, I’m aware he’s started Game 2 of the 2016 ALDS, which should hold that distinction in a vacuum. Tonight feels even more weighty, however. It’s a feeling that has been locked in the moment Ian Kinsler grounded into a game-ending double play Tuesday night.
The Red Sox have another chance to clinch their 4th AL East division title in six seasons (their third in a row), and they have the opportunity to do so for the second time in three years in the House That Jeter Built. Nothing would be sweeter than for Price, who is maligned nearly as much by Yankee fans as he is by his hometown supporters, to land the finishing blow.
Bronx Blues
Price has emerged as the most reliable Red Sox pitcher this year. He’s caught fire in the second half of 2018 after his first two seasons in Boston were both up-and-down (2016) and marred by injury (2017). However, any Price positivity will always be overshadowed by his performance when it counts in October and his reputation of being unable to come through in big games…especially against New York.
He did little to dispel those notions earlier this season. The Yankees knocked him out of the game in the first inning of his third start of 2018, scoring 4 runs on 3 hits before Price left the game with a “tingling sensation” in his left hand. As you can imagine, that didn’t go over so well in Boston.
He took the mound against the Yankees again on July 1st, this time in New York. The Yankees bounced him early yet again. Price allowed 8 runs and 5 HR in 3.1 innings. The 8 runs were a career high and ballooned his career ERA at the new Yankee Stadium to 4.75.
A Shot At Redemption
Since that start, however, Price has been dynamite. He’s toed the rubber 11 times; the Sox are 10-1 in those games. That’s due in large part to their $217 million man. Over that stretch, Price is 6-0 with a 2.22 ERA and an absurd 7.77 K/BB rate. Focusing in further, Price has posted a 1.56 ERA in his last 9 starts, with opponents only hitting .188 against him.
Included in that streak? A 6 inning, 2 earned run performance against the second place Yankees on August 5th in Boston. Price wasn’t necessarily extraordinary in that one. But, he didn’t implode, didn’t get Fortnite Fingers, and gave the Sox a chance to win.
You might expect more out of a guy making $30 million AAV against your biggest rival. However, given Price’s history against the Yankees, it was a step in the right direction.
Tonight, the Murfreesboro, TN native can:
Help the Red Sox win their division, and begin prepping for the playoffs in earnest.
Continue one of the best stretches of his career, with an eye towards carrying it through to October
Conquer the pinstripe-clad demons that have haunted him his entire career in their own backyard
Yeah, I’d say this is about as important as a start can get. That is until the postseason begins.
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The Red Sox take on the Houston Astros this weekend in a three game set that many believe is an ALCS preview. There will be plenty to take in at Fenway Park over the next few days. Here’s what I’ll be keeping my eye on:
Aces, Charles, You’re Aces
Aces are often the case when top flight teams face off, and there will be some big time pitching matchups worth tuning in for.
Friday night’s tilt features two of the AL’s best: Gerrit Cole and David Price. Cole was a CY Young favorite earlier this season. In his first 10 starts, he went 5-1 with a 1.86 ERA and a .169 batting average against. However, he’s cooled recently. Since the calendar flipped to August, he’s 3-2 with a 4.11 ERA. Conversely, Price is just hitting his stride. The 2012 AL CY Young award winner has been on fire since the All-Star break. He’s shut down opposing bats to the tune of a 1.62 second-half ERA, with an exquisite 6.14 K/BB ratio over his last 7 starts.
Saturday’s matchup is solid as well, with Houston’s Charlie Morton (13-3, 3.13 ERA) facing off against Eduardo Rodriguez (12-3, 3.34 ERA). Both guys are in the midst of career years, and overcoming recent DL stints. This will be Morton’s first start since August 28th, and Rodriguez’s second start since returning from the DL earlier this month. Of course, we all remember how that first start went:
Buenas noticias para @RedSox Eduardo Rodríguez lució enorme en su primera apertura, luego de salir de la lista de lesionados 12 ponches🔥 pic.twitter.com/ZPwlh1p9dG
As if that wasn’t enough, Sunday features the two of the last three AL CY Young winners. Rick Porcello is looking to rebound from an especially tough stretch; he’s allowed a HR in 10 of his last 13 starts, and has a 5.21 ERA since June 27th. Dallas Keuchel has been Houston’s 4th best starter, though he’d be a #2 or #3 guy on most clubs. He’s been effective all season long, and will be coming off of a 6 inning, 0 earned-run outing against the Twins on Monday.
Even without Chris Sale and Justin Verlander toeing the rubber, both teams have plenty of starting pitching to keep things interesting all weekend.
Mitchy No Bags
On May 25th, the Red Sox DFA’ed Hanley Ramirez. There were plenty of extenuating factors that went into that roster decision, including first-baseman Mitch Moreland‘s red hot start. It made sense at the time. Moreland was hitting .318/.393/.636 with 8 HR in 122 PA, along with his typically stellar defense. He’s since gone into a tailspin. In 75 games since May 26th, Moreland is only slashing .220/.294/.374 with 7 HR. He’s also 1 for his last 18 at bats.
Moreland is a career .252/.318/.440 hitter, and the totality of his 2018 has reflected that larger sample size. However, considering how hard he faltered in the second half of 2017, Sox fans have reason to worry that they won’t get enough out of a key cog come playoff time. If Moreland is going to get hot again, this weekend would be a good time to start.
Old Dogs, Old Tricks
Second base has been a struggle for the Sox this season. They rank 26th in the majors with a 83 wRC+ at that position. Dustin Pedroia‘s consistent offensive output and strong defense (*cough* Nunez *cough*) has been missed.
The good news? A couple of former All-Stars have made their presence felt at that spot recently. Ian Kinsler and Brandon Phillips may be long in the tooth, but they’re contributing in a big way down the stretch.
Kinsler got off to a slow start this season. But, he began to find a rhythm right before the Red Sox acquired him on July 30th. In 21 games for Boston, he’s hit .310/.355./408 with a 106 OPS+. His slick defense has been a major upgrade, too. Kinsler was 4-11 with 5 RBI in the Red Sox sweep of the Braves earlier this week, including a couple of rare (for him) opposite-field gappers.
Brandon Phillips signed a minor league contract in June, and made his Red Sox debut on Wednesday. His impact was, in a word, immediate:
There’s still about a month until the postseason roster shakes out. But these two former All-Stars have tons to offer the Sox in the here and now. We’ll see if they continue to make the most of their opportunities against the reigning world champs.
This weekend is must watch TV for Red Sox fans. The results may not be predicative of what will happen in October, but they will go a long way towards determining who has the upper hand should we see this matchup again.
Baseball’s waiver trade deadline passed yesterday, without so much as a peep from the top team in the majors. Dave Dombrowski and the Red Sox chose to roll with the guys in the clubhouse, despite two other AL rivals (New York and Cleveland) making moves to bring in former MVPs and despite calls across their fan base to improve the bullpen.
Those desperate cries have rang out all season long. As it turns out, fans aren’t feeling too comfortable at the thought of Matt Barnes, Joe Kelly, or Heath Hembree entering the 8th inning of a Game 7. Dombrowski’s reputation of building star-studded teams without reliable relievers doesn’t help matters either.
But just how shaky is Boston’s ‘pen? Is having a group of dominant relievers really so important in October? Let’s do a bit of digging to find out.
Red Sox Bullpen: Actually Good?
Photo Credit: AP Photo / Charles Krupa
For starters, the idea that the Red Sox bullpen has struggled this season is more perception than reality. There may not be a ton of big names and former closers like there are with the Yankees and Indians. That being said- the Sox’s relievers have generally been up to the task.
Boston currently ranks 6th in the majors in reliever ERA this season (4th in the AL). The five teams ahead of them also happen to be teams currently slated for a playoff spot. The aforementioned Indians, despite trading for the Padres’ Brad Hand earlier this summer and having Cody Allen and Andrew Miller in the mix, rank 26th in the league in bullpen ERA.
The Sox also rate favorably in FIP (5th in the majors, 3rd amongst playoff teams). Their bullpen’s 4.5 fWAR ranks 7th in baseball, even though their relievers have thrown only 461 innings this season (19th most). In other words, Boston’s ‘pen has provided enough value to rank in the top 25% of teams, despite appearing in fewer innings than every team ahead of them for the exception of Houston.
Of course, that doesn’t mean they’ve been perfect. Far from it in fact. Two troubling peripherals: the Red Sox rank 18th in reliever BB/9 (3.65) and 4th in strand rate (78.4%). Giving up free passes in high-leverage situations is playing with fire, especially in October. A high strand rate means that Boston has done well at putting out those fires. But, that luck can turn in a hurry.
Bullpen Matters
CINCINNATI, OH – AUGUST 12: Joe Kelly #56 of the Boston Red Sox pitches in the third inning of the game against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on August 12, 2014 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)
All of this is to say that the Red Sox bullpen has been overall perfectly acceptable, if not dominant. The good news? Having a great regular season bullpen isn’t necessarily a predictor for postseason success, especially if you excel in other areas like Boston does.
The defending World Series champion Astros ranked 17th in baseball with a 4.27 bullpen ERA last year, yet still won 101 games. That was thanks in large part to their league-leading offense and strong starting pitching. The team they beat for the title last year, the Dodgers, ranked 4th in bullpen ERA. Both finished behind the Red Sox, whose 3.15 reliever ERA was good for 2nd best in baseball.
Here’s where the other previous six pennant winners ranked in bullpen ERA:
2016: Cubs 8th, Indians 4th
2015: Royals 2nd, Mets 11th
2014: Giants 5th, Royals 10th
Of the last eight World Series participants, four finished in the top five. Only last year’s Astros finished outside of the top half of the league. The Royals, who started this craze with their three-headed monster of Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera, and Greg Holland, finished 2nd in 2015. Their bullpen effectively functioned as the team’s greatest asset, compensating for a weak rotation and unconventional lineup. It was essentially the inverse of what the ’17 Astros lineup did for their relievers.
It’s perfectly fair to critique Dombrowski for not finding a better option at either trade deadline. It certainly would have been nice to supplement Craig Kimbrel at the end of games. Ultimately, it might not matter if the Red Sox bullpen is merely above average instead of dominant. Having a killer set of relievers helps come playoff time. However, it’s not necessarily more important than timely hitting, strong starting pitching, and major contributions from stars.
Thus far, it appears Red Sox management is betting on that being the case.
