Have you ever been in a workplace where one person was promoted while another was passed over? Have you ever lost out to someone else when pursuing the same romantic connection? Have you ever worried about your future? The impending deadline for many Red Sox contracts is the elephant in the room. Here are the dynamics.
Chris Sale
Chris Sale got a hefty 5 year $150 Million extension. In the abstract this is a great deal. Sale is an all time pitcher for many reasons, and it’s only the 37th ranked deal in major league history. Considering how good Sale has been, and how most of the top deals are happening now, it was a nice job by Dombrowski.
If everything was going well, if the team was even .500, Sale’s slow start would be no big deal. He’s taking it slow. He’s really just had his third spring training start. He’ll be throwing 99 in September and October.
But things are not going well. Which opens the door for 2nd guessing. And not just by the media and fans.
Xander Bogaerts
Again, in a vacuum, a great deal. He’s only tied for #62 on the all time list. And he’s four years younger than Sale, and repped by Scott Boras. He’s a two time champ playing a premium position and one of the top Shortstops in the game. Record contracts are being handed out, and Dombrowski got him for 6 years, $120 Million. That’s actually a bargain.
He’s playing fine. He’s hitting .280 with an .899 OPS. That’s more than fine. But if he’s not worried about living up to his (underpaid but life changing) contract, does he run on Roman Laureano the second time?
Jackie Bradley Jr. and Mookie Betts
Bradley and Betts both have one year of arbitration left. But beyond Bogaerts and Sale, players all over baseball are getting contracts, including buying out the last year of arbitration. A lot of those players don’t have World Series rings on their resume.
Both of them are stubborn in their own way. Last year Jackie would brush away changing his swing due to shifts, and Mookie is turning down $200 Million deals because he thinks he’s worth more. Xander $120, Mookie $200 looks about right from here. But Mookie is looking at Mike Trout’s $426 Million.
Are they thinking about their contracts when they are not once, but twice, not communicating in the outfield? Were they questioning turning down contracts or how they deserve more? The first time they banged into each other, but the ball was caught. The second time it bounced between them for a two run double while they stood there. Somewhere in the Statcast universe there was a machine screaming that there was an 89% chance that ball would be caught.
And did Betts have his head on straight when he challenged the clearly greatest outfield defender of our generation Roman Laureno in the 9th inning?
Porcello has been the perfect #3 starter for this team. Yes, he won a Cy Young when everything went perfectly, but he’s the steady guy who’s going to make 30 plus starts and never go on the Injured List.
One secret to his success is control. When do we loose control? When we are worried and anxious and unsure of our future. When things are uncertain. Porcello is up after 2019. He’s practically begged to be signed, saying he would give a hometown discount. And couldn’t Porcello say to himself that he’s never had to go on the Injured List. He’s actually won a Cy Young. Couldn’t he be looking sideways at Chris Sale and saying to himself “This guy gets paid but I don’t?” Don’t quote me on this, but I believe Porcello was one of the few pitchers not in the room when Sale’s extension was announced.
Yesterday was the first time since he was a young pup of 23 in 2012 that Porcello has walked at least 3 batters in back to back games. That’s one way of loosing control. Here’s another:
Some say this is a 2018 World Series hangover. From here this is a mass of confusion, worrying and anxiety about contracts.
It can be fixed. These guys have to have some pride right? It’s a 4.5 game deficit to first in the AL East right now. That’s not insurmountable, and so far the guys are healthy. But they better wake up soon.
After a mixed opening to the season in Seattle, the Red Sox head to Oakland to continue an 11 game road trip. Here is what to watch out for in this second of three opening road series.
PITCHING MATCHUPS/SCHEDULE (TV)
4/1 David Price vs Aaron Brooks (R) 10:07pm NESN
4/2 Chris Sale vs Mike Fiers (R) 10:07pm NESN
4/3 Nathan Eovaldi vs Marco Estrada (R) 10:07pm NESN
4/4 Eduardo Rodriguez vs Brett Anderson (L) 3:07pm NESN
NOTABLE NUMBERS
The biggest question mark in this series is going to be Chris Sale’s velocity. Thomas touched on it in his preview last week and his fears were somewhat realized. Sale’s fastball averaged 92.8 mph in Seattle on Opening Day. Last season he averaged below that just twice, the fourth game of the season (90.9) and the last (90.1). Last season on Opening Day his velocity was up at 94.9. If Sale’s velocity is low again in Oakland then serious question marks will start to be raised.
Due to the Opening Series in Japan, Mike Fiers and Marco Estrada will be making their third starts of the season. Fiers has struggled with a 5.00 ERA and a 5.71 FIP across nine innings. Estrada has fared better with a 2.45 ERA in his 11 innings. However, Estrada has managed just four strikeouts, compared to two home runs and has an alarming 5.49 FIP.
After a home run loaded Opening Series in Seattle, the Red Sox will not be pleased to see Khris Davis, who has already hit three home runs this season.
Eduardo Rodriguez will not be pleased to see a right-handed heavy Athletics lineup. He struck out just 24% of right-handed hitters he faced last season, and surrendered a 4.15 xFIP against them.
Expect to see J.D. Martinez have a strong series with three right-handed pitchers on the mound. In 2018, he had a 174 wRC+ against righties. Unusually for right-handed hitters, Martinez was stronger last season against righties than lefties.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
The Rotation: With the bullpen likely to remain a question mark until it has completely proven otherwise, a lot of pressure will fall on the rotation. Sale is obviously the biggest question mark but there are also questions surrounding Eovaldi and Rodriguez after their first starts.
Hitting Depth: There are no major worries around the hitters at this early stage. However, Nunez, Holt and Swihart had registered just one hit between them in the Sox first three games. With Dustin Pedroia on the injured list the Red Sox need their hitting depth to help them get off to a strong start.
EXPECTATIONS
Many people saw the Opening Series as a disadvantage to the Athletics and Mariners, due to the amount of travel. However, at this stage of the season it is actually an advantage. Those two teams had to ramp up their season preparation a week earlier than everyone else and are therefore slightly ahead of the rest of the league. Travelling to both of those teams in the first eight days of the season is a tough assignment for the Red Sox. The Sox also come into this game having gone 1-2 on the road in Oakland, and 2-4 overall against them last season.
A three series road trip to start the season is really tough for any team. The pros of it are that it gets some of the travelling out of the way early. However, the Red Sox would ideally want to come out of these first eight games around .500, meaning they will need to at least split this four game series in Oakland.
Well that was a dud. Chris Sale was bad, the bullpen was bad, the bats only managed 4 runs in a 12-4 loss. But this isn’t about injury, and it’s not about punching holes in the teams’ talent. This was a wake up call for a team coming off arguably the most historic season in it’s 117 year history.
Chris Sale
Yesterday we pointed to Chris Sale’s velocity to see if he was on board with the plan to take it easy. Thanks to Brooks Baseball we can see that his average four seam fastball traveled at 92.9 MPH. That is exactly where he needs to be in order to both last the season without breaking down, and be effective. Tony Massarotti points out that Sale averaged 94 MPH on his four seamer last April, and he went 2-1 with a 2.31 ERA then.
This is a new world for Sale. His whole life he has given 100% all the time. The Red Sox are asking him to dial it back so he’s in peak form for the playoffs. He’s being asked to be the Ace of the Boston Red Sox. He has a new contract. There is a lot on his shoulders. We know he gets it, he’s accountable, he’s passionate.
The Bullpen
The bullpen went 5 innings and gave up 4 earned runs. That’s not good. They’re not world beaters, but they’re also not a wheel of gutless bums. Coming into a Chris Sale game in the fourth inning down 7-2 is not normal.
Tyler Thornburg has a long way to go to receive Red Sox fans’ confidence, but despite what Dave Dombrowski says, he’s not being depended on to be a lock down guy. Alex Cora has sung Hector Velazquez’s praises, but he’s a mop up guy. He gave up 2 or more earned runs 10 times last year.
The only guy who was looked at as dependable in any way last year that pitched last night was Heath Hembree. He threw 17 pitches and got 2 outs, with a strike out and walk thrown in there. That’s an acceptable 7th inning guy, which is what he is being asked to be in the long run.
The Lineup
These guys can fall out of bed and score four runs against the Mariners’ pitching staff. That’s exactly what they did. They tested out a double steal, neat. Mookie went 3-4 and J.D. went 2-5, fabulous.
But where were the grind out at bats? The offense was listless.
The Outfield Defense
Good execution on throwing out Haniger at home by the team. But that was more routine and execution by Vazquez at home, that anything amazing on Mookie’s part.
And then there was the Mookie – Jackie almost debacle. Mookie called for the ball, and Jackie almost knocked it out of his glove by bumping into him in the outfield.
Wake Up Calls
This was all a lack of focus.
Chris Sale is human. His location was off. That falls into execution. Last season he decided to dial it up in June and July. He’s going to need to find that 2018 April for the full season.
It’s the major leagues. Batters can’t just roll out of bed and show up to win games. They need to focus on every pitch.
We haven’t seen the real bullpen weapons yet. We’ll have to wait and see how Barnes and Brasier and Brewer do. If they perform like Thorburg and Velazquez it will be a problem.
Outfielders need to be engaged. That means in every way, including communication. What happened with Bradley and Betts should not happen, no matter what stadium they’re in.
From here it feels like they all needed a wake up call to focus on the new season and leave 2018 behind. It’s a new world. They’re defending Champs coming off a historic season. A 12-4 lashing by the Seattle Mariners hopefully did the trick. Let’s see if Alex Cora and the team can come to the park with a renewed sense of the here and now tonight.
The defending champs face off against a stripped down Seattle Mariners team in a four game series starting today in Seattle. Here’s what to look for as the Red Sox kick off the 2019 season.
Pitching Matchups/Schedule (TV)
3/28 Chris Sale vs Marco Gonzalez 7:10pm ESPN/NESN
3/29 Nathan Eovaldi vs Yusei Kikuchi 10:10pm NESN
3/30 Eduardo Rodriguez vs Mike Leake 9:10pm NESN
3/31 Rick Porcello vs Wade LeBlanc 4:10pm NESN
Notable Numbers
Rookie Yusei Kikuchi pitched well in his Major League debut in his Japanese homeland last week, allowing 2 runs (1 earned) in 4.1 Innings against the A’s. Long time watchers of the Sox know this team can struggle against pitchers they see for the first time. This could be a very interesting match-up, because Nathan Eovaldi went 2-6 with a 5.14 ERA on the road last year.
Chris Sale had an insane .766 WHIP on the road last year (just another Bugs Bunny number from 2018), going 8-2 in those situations. But the most important number will be his average fastball velocity. A low 90s number means he’s on track, high 90’s (on average) means there isn’t a plan for his long term health, 80s may signal shoulder weakness.
J.D. Martinez has 2 Home Runs and hit .384 against the three Mariners starters he’s seen.
Edwin Encarnacion could be trouble. In 86 career at bats against the Red Sox starters, he’s hit .314 with 6 Home Runs and 17 RBI.
What To Watch For
The Bullpen: Alex Cora told us he would reveal the closer when the situation presented itself in the regular season. Will we see Brasier in the 8th, Barnes in the 9th? Will Cora deploy the bullpen based purely on match-ups regardless of the inning? We should know a lot more after this series.
Sam Travis: With Steve Pearce down, Sam Travis gets to face left-handed starters in the early part of the season. If he performs well with this chance he could guarantee a lot more playing time throughout the season. He’ll face three left handed starters in this series. He only hit .244 in Spring Training so he’ll have to pick it up quickly.
Expectations
The Sox went 4-3 against the surprisingly competitive Mariners last year. Since then the M’s have traded Robinson Cano, Jean Seguara, Edwin Diaz, and James Paxton. They also lost Nelson Cruz to free agency. That would be their best everyday players, their Closer, and their Ace. They’ve brought in replacements Edwin Encarnacion, Yusei Kikuchi and Hunter Strickland, but that’s a big step down. They’re riding high and feeling confident after sweeping the As 2 – 0 in Japan.
The biggest question for the Red Sox is how they will play coming off winning the World Series in 2018. Going on the road is never easy, but the Sox are still a juggernaut and should win three of these games at least. It feels like the team wants to make a statement. A split will be a disappointment.
With the baseball season arriving, our baseball writers have come together to predict the 2019 award winners. In this article we each choose the winner of the MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year and Manager of the Year Awards for the coming season. We will follow shortly with a second article predicting the division winners and postseason results for the coming season.
American League Most Valuable Player
Thom Howland: Jose Ramirez hit .270 last year with an unlucky 25% hit rate. With his top tier power, peak age, and a Cleveland team gunning for another AL Central crown, the time is ripe for his MVP closeup. Dark horse candidate – Jose Abreu
Scott Frizzell: It is just so hard to pick against Mike Trout. The new $430 million dollar man has finished in the top two every year of his career except one, when he finished fourth after missing six weeks of action. Dark horse candidate – Andrew Benintendi
John Principe: Coming off a year that didn’t end in him winning the MVP, I fully expect Mike Trout to again put up his insane numbers. He’s the closest thing in sports to a perennial lock, and is my pick to stay healthy and win his third MVP. Dark horse candidate – Matt Chapman
Ben Rolfe: Yes, it is the boring pick, but Mike Trout is so far above anyone else in baseball right now it is incredible. If we ignore his small rookie appearance then Trout’s average WAR is 9.2 per year and his numbers are something out of a video game. Dark horse candidate – Luke Voit
Mike Quilty: Mike Trout may be the favorite, but I think Alex Bregman will have a huge year for Houston.
Mike Trout is always a safe bet to be near the top.
National League Most Valuable Player
Thom Howland: Kris Bryant, the former MVP, is over the injuries that sapped his power last year. The Cubs are being counted out, and he will be at the center of their resurgence. Dark horse candidate – Ronald Acuna
Scott Frizzell: Paul Goldschmidt is leaving the desert for St. Louis this season, and I think he will put up his usual big numbers while helping lead the Cardinals back to the postseason for the first time since 2015. After a dreadful first two months last year, Goldy batted .330 with 26 home runs and a 1.022 OPS from June 1st on. Dark horse candidate – Ronald Acuna
John Principe: Bryce Harper is coming off an okay year, but a great contract, what’s in store for him? The new Philly slugger, to me, is poised to breakout again and have his best season since his MVP year in 2015. Look for Bryce to put up another season with an OPS over 1.000, carry his Phils to an NL East title, and win MVP while he’s at it. Dark horse candidate – Ronald Acuna
Ben Rolfe: Nolan Arenado is one of the best fielders at his position and he hits in Coors Field, which always means his hitting numbers will be right up there. His best chance is if he can lead the Rockies back to the playoffs. Dark horse candidate – Jesus Aguilar
Mike Quilty: Paul Goldschmidt had never won the award before but has been close multiple times as a D-Back. After a trade to St. Louis a change of scenery may be just what he needs.
Paul Goldschmidt joins a new team for the first time in his career.
American League Cy Young
Thom Howland: The all-time MLB leader in K/9 and K/BB will put it all together this year. After 6 straight Top 5 AL Cy Young finishes, Chris Sale will finally gain the top spot in 2019. Dark horse candidate – Eduardo Rodriguez
Scott Frizzell: Coming off a fantastic first season in Houston, I will choose Gerrit Cole to win the Cy Young this year. There is no one candidate this year that stands out to me. Dark horse candidate – Shane Bieber
John Principe: Despite struggling in the second half of 2018, I expect a massive year out of Jose Berrios. The bats are a little better behind him, which should work to his advantage. He’s a nasty pitcher with devastating off-speed stuff and will have a good chance to finish at least top 5 in Cy Young voting. Dark horse candidate – Mike Clevinger
Ben Rolfe: The drop in velocity for Chris Sale has me scared, and Gerrit Cole looked so dominant at times last year. He will be a crucial part of a playoff bound rotation and could win 20 games this season.
Mike Quilty: Chris Sale has come in the top five in each of the last six years. Injury last season ended his first shot at the award as he was pitching well. I think Sale will have an amazing year in 2019 and win his first Cy Young.
Chris Sale always finishes in the top five, but can he finally win the coveted award?
National League Cy Young
Thom Howland: Noah Syndergaard went 4-1 with two shutouts in September of last year. Finally healthy after years of nagging injuries, and with an improved Mets team behind him, the promise of his 97+ MPH fastball and devastating off-speed stuff will bring home the NL Cy Young in 2019. Dark horse candidate – Luis Castillo
Scott Frizzell: I tried Noah Syndergaard last season and instead his teammate won the award. I’m going him again. Syndergaard has the stuff to win it, reaching into the upper-90’s with his fastball with a devastating slider thrown around 92. Dark horse candidate – Walker Buehler
John Principe: Walker Buehler came up and absolutely dominated last year. With Kershaw ready to pass the load (and possibly ace status) on to Buehler, this could be a huge breakout year for him in establishing himself as a premier pitcher in the NL. Dark horse candidate – Kyle Freeland
Ben Rolfe: Patrick Corbin moves to a rotation which is known for pitching success on the back of a great 2018. Pitching alongside Max Scherzer gives a perfect person for him to be compared to all season in order to win this award. Dark horse candidate – Robbie Ray
Mike Quilty: Max Scherzer has won three times already, and had a career high last season with 300 strikeouts. He went 18-7 with a 2.53 era and probably would’ve won his fourth if not for Jacob deGrom and his historic season.
“Thor” has electric stuff, but has had some injury troubles.
American League Rookie of the Year
Thom Howland: As a 19-year-old, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. rocketed from Rookie Ball all the way to AAA last year. Along the way he managed a .381 average, 20 Home Runs, and 29 Doubles. He’ll be delayed by a few weeks, but this 20-year-old will rake once he makes the show. Dark horse candidate – Josh James
Scott Frizzell: Eloy Jimenez could have a fantastic rookie season, but it’s hard to go against Vladimir Guerrero Jr. after he hit .402 at AA last season. This could shape up similarly to the Ronald Acuna vs Juan Soto race for Rookie of the Year last season. Dark horse candidate – Josh James
John Principe: Possibly the easiest category of all, Vlad Jr. is poised for greatness regardless of when his call-up comes. He’ll be in the show this season, hopefully by the middle of May at the latest. Even with his competitors getting possibly an extra month to pad their stats, Vlad should easily win this award. Dark horse candidate – Yusei Kikuchi
Ben Rolfe: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is not a particularly fun pick, but I cannot see who else it will be. Guerrero is so talented and in a hitter friendly park, he will have every chance to put up huge numbers. Dark horse candidate – Yusei Kikuchi
Mike Quilty: Vladimir Guerrero Jr, 19-year-old son of HOF Vladimir Guerrero has dominated every level he’s played at to this point. He’s a great talent with great lineage and will now showcase his talent in the big leagues.
Vlad Jr. is the only unanimous choice.
National League Rookie of the Year
Thom Howland: Fernando Tatis Jr. is another precocious 20-year-old. He hit .286 with 16 HR and 22 Doubles last year in AA. The Padres are moving the newly minted $300 Million Dollar Manny Machado to third base so Tatis Jr. can play every day. Dark horse candidate – Pete Alonso
Scott Frizzell: Nick Senzel keeps getting moved around the field due to being blocked at the big league level all over the infield. His bat will play anywhere though. It looks like his new home will be center field for the Reds. Although I think Pete Alonso might slug 30 home runs for the Mets, I believe Senzel will have a more rounded game, batting around .300 with 15-20 home runs and stolen bases. Dark horse candidate – Chris Paddack
John Principe: The opposite of the AL, this race seems wide open to me. With no clear favorite, the Mets slugger Pete Alonso is my choice. Alonso has a brilliant eye, and lots of pop in his bat and should have a chance to play first base right away for the Mets. Dark horse candidate – Nick Senzel
Ben Rolfe: Anyone with Nick Senzel’s talent who gets to play in a hitter friendly park is always going to have a great shot of success. Add in the highlight plays he seems to be capable of making in center field and this could be a fun player to watch this season. Dark horse candidate – Chris Paddack
Mike Quilty: If Alex Reyes can finally stay healthy, he has some of the most electric stuff in the entire sport.
Nick Senzel was drafted 2nd overall in 2016.
American League Manager of the Year
Thom Howland: The Angels are an afterthought in the AL playoff picture. The A’s funky stadium and Billy Beane’s witchcraft will run out, and Brad Ausmus will have the Angels in the playoffs for the first time since 2014. Dark horse candidate – Kevin Cash
Scott Frizzell: I like Thom’s pick of Brad Ausmus. Mike Scioscia had gone stale and in need of replacing, the fresh face of Ausmus will give the club an extra jolt this season. Although their pitching staff is questionable, their lineup is looking rock solid. Dark horse candidate – Rocco Baldelli
John Principe: After being named a finalist in 2018 due to his innovation and his ability to do lots with very little, Kevin Cash should take the next step and win this year. There’s always the possibility of a team exceeding expectations (i.e. 2018 Athletics) and that manager taking the award, but for now Cash seems like the safest bet. Dark horse candidate – Rocco Baldelli
Ben Rolfe: Rick Renteria could have a perfect storm of young talented players starting to reach their peak and a weak division. The White Sox could push the Indians deep this season and even not making the playoffs that would be enough to get Renteria in consideration for the award. Dark horse candidate – Rocco Baldelli
Mike Quilty: Call me a homer but I’m going with Alex Cora
Can Brad Ausmus lead the Angels to the playoffs in his first season at the helm?
National League Manager of the Year
Thom Howland: Bud Black has two top-five MVP possibilities in Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon. They have promising starters in Jon Gray, German Marquez, and Kyle Freeland. Black will help their pitching and lead them to the NL Playoffs, despite being given a slim 17.5% chance of doing so. Dark horse candidate – Dave Martinez
Scott Frizzell: Last year I said the Phillies would surprise people and hang in the race before ultimately fading. This year, they will win the NL East, and with it Gabe Kapler will take home the Manager of the Year Award. Dark horse candidate – David Bell
John Principe: David Bell has a great opportunity in front of him in his first year leading the Reds. A young lineup that has already proved itself may now have some pitching behind it to support this team. A lot of people have the Reds as the breakout team of 2019, myself included. If they can push themselves into playoff contention in that division, or even over .500, it’s going to be hard not giving this award to Bell. Dark horse candidate – Dave Martinez
Ben Rolfe: This is another case of a perfect storm. Gabe Kapler took a lot of stick for some of his decisions last season. However, now he has a young rotation and an incredibly talented lineup at his fingertips. This team could be in contention for the most wins in the NL. Dark horse candidate – Bud Black
Mike Quilty: I think Dave Roberts will get the Dodgers back to the World Series and have one of the best records. After losing one of his key players, that could be enough to net him this award.
According to Forbes’ Mike Dowling, Chris Sale is on the verge of signing a $35 Million per year extension for 7 years. ***Update – He’s getting a 5 Year $150 Million contract*** The gut reaction of some fans is ‘Woah woah woah, he’s got a 5+ ERA in the playoffs!’. While that is true, he’s also on the road to a Hall Of Fame career. Here are some reasons why, despite the risk, he’s worth it.
All Time Leader
This guy is historically great. Baseball Reference is a beautiful collection of any baseball stat you can imagine. Chris Sale’s page has two rare commodities: gold stats. They might as well make them platinum, because they annotate an All Time Career Record.
Chris Sale is a poetry of power, finesse, and efficiency. We thought we would never see the likes of Pedro Martinez pitching for the Red Sox ever again. We were wrong. Chris Sale currently holds the All Time Record in K/9, or strike outs per 9 innings. His 10.9 is higher than Pedro, Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, Nolan Ryan, and any other great you can think of.
Not only that, but his 5.31 K/BB, or strike outs per walk, blows away the competition of any other control artist. Greg Maddux is 3.37, Schilling is 4.38. These are Buggs Bunny numbers.
He is bar none the best strike out machine, and control artist, ever. Sale is changing the game. We’re talking Michelangelo’s Sistine Ceiling. That piece of art vaulted the Renaissance into the Baroque. Chris Sale is baseball’s Michelangelo, or Warren Buffett, or Bill Belichick.
Career Highs
In 2018 Chris Sale set a number of incredible career highs. His 2.11 ERA, .861 WHIP (walks and hits per innings pitched), 6.97 K/BB, and 13.5 K/9 last year were all career highs.
And 2018 continued a 6 year streak of finishing in the top 5 of the Cy Young voting.
He Gets It
Chris Sale is not a self promoter, but no one gets it like this guy. Here is what he said in mid February when talking about his contract situation:
“It’s not about buying anything. It’s about playing for Championships.”
When he got injured in August of last year:
“I’m not going to sit around and pout, I’ve got to keep my chin up. I’m on the best team that’s ever walked the planet.
He’s team first, he doesn’t make excuses. And he’s a team leader too. Take yourself back to Game 4 of the World Series. The Sox were down 4-0 to the Dodgers heading into the 7th inning, after only scoring 2 in 18 innings the night before. Nobody revealed exactly was said, but here’s some reactions:
“It scared me a little bit because I had never seen him yell like that and the words that he was saying.”
Rafael Devers
“Oh my God, he was mad at us. I think that lit a fire under everyone. We didn’t want to see him mad anymore. So we decided to to start swinging the bats a little bit.”
Brock Holt
The Sox ended up scoring 3 in the top of the 7th, and ultimately winning the game 9-6.
The Rub
Many point out that Sale has a history of fading in the second half of seasons. While true, his career greatness means that in the first half he’s generally in greatest season of All Time territory, while his second halfs are more top 5 in the game at that time. Very high standards.
But it doesn’t change the fact that his limited postseasons haven’t been great, and he did miss significant time last year. The details have been hard to come by, but last year there was some sort of shoulder problem. It was commonly referred to as shoulder weakness, and anything else has been speculation. But it was enough to knock him out for the majority of the second half last year.
Worth It
Chris Sale’s dominance and virtuosity make him worthy of a mind numbing contract like $35 Million for 7 years. Alex Cora is a genius, and maybe he and his team have figured out the Chris Sale health riddle.
When news crackled off the wire that the Red Sox had signed Jenrry Mejia it was confirmed: The Red Sox payroll problems are real, and they’re spectacular. The only relief help walking through that door is the thrice failed, suspended-for-life, then reinstated kind. While wandering eyes look for a free agent, there’s a stalwart right in front of us. Matt Barnes is the most reliable, time tested, experienced, and talented holdover whose time has come. Matt Barnes should be The Closer for the Red Sox.
Slow and steady wins the race
Let’s be honest: If Craig Kimbrel would sign a two year, $20 million deal he would be the closer. But he’s worth more, and the Red Sox won’t pay him. So we have Barnes.
Ryan Brasier came out of nowhere to deliver last year. But the book on him is still being written. You better believe the hitters will catch up with him this year. Then there is Matt Barnes.
Check out his three year progression in ERA/WHIP/K per 9/Ground Ball %:
2016: 4.05/1.395/9.6/46%
2017: 3.88/1.220/10.7/49%
2018: 3.65/1.265/14.0/53%
Unlike Brasier, or even Thornburg, Barnes forged his record in the crucible of the AL East. Sure, he walks a few, that’s why his WHIP isn’t closer to 1.0, but his progression is one of an artist honing his craft. He has steadily produced more strikeouts and ground balls. That is the special sauce that creates a successful pitcher.
Opportunity
With the Red Sox looking down the barrel of paying Mookie, and the prospect of Sale, Porcello, Bogaerts, and Martinez becoming free agents after 2019, there is scant money left for the bullpen. Tyler Thornburg is coming off injury, Ryan Brasier is new, Durbin Feltman is untested. Matt Barnes has worked his way up to being the set up guy last year. He has been doubted and ridiculed, passed over for starters in the postseason despite pitching lights out.
The time is now for Matt Barnes to become the Red Sox closer.
There are rumors out of Milwaukee that the Brewers are after Xander Bogaerts. Why would the Red Sox trade him, and what could they expect in return?
Salary
The Red Sox have painful salary issues coming after 2019. The MLB Luxury Tax is a big deal. The Red Sox are already losing draft positions and paying out millions.
Along with Bogaerts, Chris Sale and Rick Porcello will be free agents. JD Martinez has an opt-out, and will use it if he approximates his performance from last year. Mookie Betts’ arbitration numbers are going to exponentially expand.
Furthermore, Scott Boras represents Bogaerts, who just had a career year. Boras does not take hometown discounts. As for Bogaerts production, he hit the ball harder in 2018 than any year other than his 44 game cup of coffee in 2013. And he’s never hit it farther.
Is his 2018 a career year, or the natural progression of a top talent? It’s hard to take one year, that is an outlier against his other five in the majors, as the new baseline.
What The Sox Could Expect In Trade
Recently, Paul Goldschmidt was traded from the Diamondbacks to the Cardinals. Goldschmidt, like Xander, was in the last year of his deal.
Goldschmidt is the Diamondbacks all time leader in OPS, SLG, Walks, and WAR. In short, his is Arizona’s Mookie Betts. For this perennial MVP candidate, the Cardinals gave up Luke Weaver, Carson Kelly, Andy Young, and a draft pick. Weaver has had a modicum of success in the majors, and Kelly was a highly rated catching prospect who had a poor showing in 2018, while Young is a middling prospect.
Because of that trade, and Xander’s impending free agency, the Red Sox can expect something less. Xander simply isn’t in the class of Paul Goldschmidt. Think 24 year old SS Orlando Arcia, a slick defensive player, but number 9 hitter. He had a .661 OPS last year in Milwaukee. Add to that perhaps Freddy Peralta, who is 22 and went 6-4 with a 4.25 ERA, including 11 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9, in 2018. Peralta also had a typically dominant and wild game in the playoffs against the Dodgers. He pitched 3 innings, walked 3, struck out 6, and did not allow a hit.
Could the Red Sox get someone like 21 year old Keston Hiura added to the haul? That might make it worth it. Hiura plays 2nd Base, and had a particularly impressive Arizona Fall League Performance: .320 batting average with a .911 OPS. He hit .272/.755 over High A and Double A ball last year. Dustin Pedroia isn’t getting any younger.
Who knows, the Brewers may feel they owe Dombrowski for that Tyler Thornburg/Travis ‘Mayor of Ding Dong City’ Shaw trade from 2016, and include more in a deal. Either way, trading Xander Bogaerts would be no easy deal. He hit 4th for the majority of the year one of the greatest Red Sox team of all time. However, the Luxury Tax bill is coming due. Something has to give, sooner or later.
The uniform numbers 41-45 feature another retired number from the Red Sox. Yes, 42 is retired, but that is for all of baseball, not a Red Sox retired number. The Red Sox’ 42 brought some serious clout to the plate though. The series continues and starts with a current Red Sox.
Number 41 – Chris Sale
Chris Sale has only been with the team for two years, but he has already accomplished so much. Most important, he was on the mound for the final out of the 2018 baseball season, striking out Manny Machado to clinch the World Series victory. Beyond that, Sale has struck out 545 batters over the two seasons, good for a whopping 13.2 batters per nine innings. He is 29-12 with a 2.56 ERA and 0.92 WHIP.
Sale had an excellent chance of taking home the Cy Young Award this season before he was placed on the disabled list and barely pitched over the final two months. He had 13.5 strike outs per nine and a 0.86 WHIP. It’s almost hard to believe he has yet to win a Cy Young and feels like only a matter of time. The Red Sox need to lock him up so he can keep adding to his Red Sox legacy.
Honorable Mentions: Dick Drago, Jeff Reardon, Victor Martinez
Chris Sale makes Manny Machado look foolish as he strikes him out to end the World Series.
Number 42 – Mo Vaughn
Without a doubt, “the Hit Dog” is the all-time best Red Sox player to wear number 42. Big Mo is from Connecticut and came up through the Red Sox farm system. After a couple Major League seasons finding his way, Mo broke out in 1993 and never stopped clubbing the ball. He hit 29 home runs and drove in 101 runs that season. His .297 batting average would be the last time he would hit under .300 as a Red Sox.
Vaughn hit .310 with a .984 OPS in the strike-shortened season of 1994. He then won his MVP Award in 1995, hitting 39 home runs and driving in an American League best 126 runners. His 1996 season was even better, batting .326/.420/.583/1.003 with 44 home runs and 143 runs batted in. Vaughn surpassed 200 hits for the first time that season, picking up 207. After a stellar 1997, Vaughn finished out his Red Sox career with another 200 hit season in 1998 while batting a career high .337. He hit 40 homers for the second time and posted a .993 OPS.
From 1995-98, Vaughn averaged 40 home runs and 120 runs batted in per season. His batting average was .320 during that time with a .986 OPS. Stretching those numbers out to 1994 only lessens them because of the strike, as his OPS would remain .986. Big Mo is a Red Sox legend.
Honorable Mention: Sonny Siebert
Number 43 – Dennis Eckersley
Before he was a lovable commentator for the team with all his funny sayings, Dennis Eckersley was a Hall of Fame pitcher. Eight of those seasons were spent in Boston. Eck was traded to the Red Sox before the 1978 season, when he enjoyed perhaps his finest season as a starting pitcher. Eckersley won 20 games that season, going 20-8 with a 2.99 ERA. He posted a 2.99 ERA again the following season, going 17-10.
The early eighties weren’t as kind to Eckersley, and he developed some bad habits which led to poorer performance on the field. He still had his use though, posting numbers worthy of a rotation spot for most of the time. Eckersley in fact made the All-Star Game in 1982, his first since his time in Cleveland. Over his first five seasons in Boston, he was 71-53 with a 3.56 ERA.
Eckersley returned to Boston for the final season of his career in 1998. He had a 4-1 record for the team in his final hurrah. Although his ERA was a little high, Eckersley pitched well for most of the season. Lit up in April, Eckersley settled down and had things straightened out by the middle of May. From May 11th onward he posted a 2.48 ERA
Honorable Mention: Alan Embree
Number 44 – Jason Bay
There isn’t a lot of competition at the number 44. Gabe Kapler was a likable guy and won a World Series with the team, but he was a reserve outfielder. Orlando Cabrera was a key component to winning the 2004 World Series, but they let him walk at the end of the season. Danny Darwin had a couple nice years with the Red Sox, but also had a couple poor ones. Jason Bay gets my vote for his work over the final two months of the 2008 season and his excellent 2009 campaign.
Bay came to the Red Sox at the trade deadline in 2008 in a deal that swept Manny Ramirez out of town. He scored the winning run in the 12th inning of his first game with the team. The next day he homered and drove in three. Bay would hit nine home runs and post an .897 OPS over the season’s final two months. He then tore the cover off the ball in the postseason, homering three times and driving in nine runs. He batted .341 with an 1.105 OPS that October.
Bay got to play one full season with the Red Sox, and he made it count. Bay made the All-Star Game and won a Silver Slugger for his work as he bashed 36 home runs and drove in 119 runs. His .921 OPS was second on the team to Kevin Youkilis and he led the team in both home runs and RBI. He got a nice contract in the offseason from the Mets and never produced that much again, but that has no effect on his standing here.
Honorable Mentions: Danny Darwin, Gabe Kapler, Orlando Cabrera
Number 45 – Pedro Martinez
Pedro Martinez is the greatest pitcher I have ever watched. Every game he pitched at Fenway was a can’t-miss event. He threw in the upper-nineties, had a wicked curveball and those weren’t even his best pitches. Pedro had a change-up that was described as unhittable even if the batter knew it was coming.
After a 1998 season that saw him win 19 games and place second in the Cy Young vote, Pedro went on perhaps the most dominant two year stretch in baseball history. Pitching in the height of the steroid era, in the American League East, Pedro was 41-10 with a 1.90 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 12.5 strike outs per nine innings and 8.65 strike outs for every one batter walked. He led the league in ERA, WHIP and strike outs in both seasons and won the pitching triple crown in 1999.
His 2.07 ERA that season was even inflated by his post-All-Star break start. After dominating the All-Star Game in front of his home crowd, Pedro wasn’t right and was hit hard by the Marlins. After a disabled list stint, he was back to his dominant ways. His ERA was still almost a run and a half better than the second-place finisher. The next season his 1.74 ERA was almost two full runs better than Roger Clemens’ second place 3.70 ERA! He was unreal.
Pedro missed much of 2001 with injury, but returned to lead the league in ERA, WHIP and K/9 in each of the next two seasons. He was a combined 34-8 with a 2.24 ERA and 0.98 WHIP those years. In 2004, he accomplished his goal of winning the World Series in Boston. Pedro pitched seven shutout innings to win game three of the World Series. His number 45 is forever immortalized at Fenway Park.
The Mets are a little off their rocker, the Winter Meetings are coming up, and the Cardinals have stolen some National League thunder with the Paul Goldschmidt trade. Nathan Eovaldi is back! Now is the time for the Red Sox to strike. Bring Noah Syndergaard to Boston. A quick reminder:
So…..Fenway was a sureal ballpark to pitch in…..from a childhood dream perspective……As visiting pitcher on a team and city I love…..#dontfreakout
The Mets are in win-now mode with their strange reliance on 36 year old, recently PED suspended, Robinson Cano. They also got Edwin Diaz in the deal. He’s a young closer who’s only done it in the relative obscurity of the Pacific Northwest. Those guys are often inconsistent. They’re also reportedly looking into trading for Corey Kluber, which is kind of nuts. Kluber has been one of the best pitchers in baseball the last few years. But the reason he’s available from the Indians is because he is 33 and on the verge of a big payday. His contract escalates, from $10 million to $17.5 million and beyond, the next few years.
When news of a Syndergaard trade first surfaced, the Mets were said to be looking to upgrade their farm system with a trade. And why wouldn’t they? Syndergaard will be the best bargain Ace in the game the next few years. His injuries are overblown and his September was one to remember.
But something happened on the road to a competitive team and stacked farm system. Potential trades aren’t bearing the kind of fruit the Mets thought they would get. Let’s take a deep dive on some rumored deals.
Margot, whom the Red Sox gave to the Padres in the Craig Kimbrel trade, has been a classic good defense, no-so-good offense, center fielder. In 2017 he hit .263 with a .721 OPS. In 2018, after the league had a look at him, he hit .245 with a .675 OPS. Think Jackie Bradley Jr without the hot streaks and superior defense.
Austin Hedges is a catcher with slightly above average power, and little else. In 2017 he hit .214 with a .660 OPS, 2018 it was .231/.711.
Mackenzie Gore is a highly rated young pitcher who gets a lot of strikeouts. He also walks a lot of people. Because of this, he had a middling 4.45 ERA in single A ball last year.
The Rockies
The Rockies have a lot of young pitching. It may be just for show, but Assistant GM Zack Rosenthal told the MLB Network on Tuesday 12/4 that the Rockies are built on that young pitching and defense. This is a team that hits missile after missile into the glorious Rocky Mountain air. The team is also about to spend a record amount in arbitration on MVP candidate Nolan Arenado. Arenado is not making that kind of money for his gold glove defense at third base. He hit .297 with 36 Home Runs last year.
So what does this mean? The Rockies may be deluding themselves into thinking their MVP candidates don’t matter and it’s all about the pitching. More likely, they’re negotiating in the media to reduce their arbitration cases with their hitters. But because of the money going to their hitters, they’re likely to keep the young starters they have. The Red Sox don’t have that kind of young pitching.
The Red Sox
Rafael Devers is better than anyone the Padres or Rockies can or will throw at the Mets.
Margot is 24, Hedges is 26. Devers is still the tender age of 22. This precious youngster hit .284 with 10 home runs and a .819 OPS in part time play as a 20 year old in 2017, then .240 with 21 home runs and a .731 OPS last year. Furthermore, Devers hit .311 in the Postseason over his first 2 years, including 3 home runs and a .884 OPS in 45 at bats.
That’s special. But he’s no Tony Conigliaro. The beloved Tony C hit .290 with 24 home runs and an .883 OPS as a 19 year old, then .269 with 32 home runs and an .850 OPS as a 20 year old, then .265 with 28 home runs and an .817 OPS as a 21 year old.
Devers will be worth holding on to, but not transcendent. That is why he’s worth giving up for the rare young, cost controlled monster, like Noah Syndergaard, who becomes available.
What’s more, the Mets need a catcher. The Red Sox have a plethora. Putting Christian Vazquez, whose Postseason success means his value may never be higher, in a trade would be ideal. But the Sox could throw in Blake Swihart instead. A combo of either Swihart or Vazquez, with Sandy Leon as backup, would be more than fine for the 2019 Red Sox.
If the Mets wants minor leaguers, give them some. The Red Sox have a weak system, but Devers is younger than most of the highly touted minor leaguers in the game. It would take less top young talent than some other teams.
Eovaldi Frees Things Up
And now that Nathan Eovaldi is back, the Sox are freed up to include Eduardo Rodriguez in the deal if they need to. This gives the Red Sox more options. They don’t need to give the Mets everything, but widens the possibilities of how a trade could look.
Syndergaard Solves The Contract Crunch
At the end of 2019 the Sox will have some choices to make. Chris Sale, Rick Porcello, and Xander Bogaerts become free agents at that time. Nathan Eovaldi’s contract is reported to be in the $17 million a year range. All three of those other guys will cost more than that.
Then there is JD Martinez’s opt out. He’s currently being paid $23.75 Million. With his performance he will definitely be looking for a raise starting in 2020.
Noah Syndergaard is in arbitration. He made $2.975 Million last year and, his projected earnings in 2019 are $5.9 Million. If he becomes a top 10 starting pitcher in 2019, watch out. Thor has three years of control left in arbitration. He won’t approach $20 million in salary until 2021 at the earliest.
If Syndergaard is in Boston, there’s a lot more money for the rest of the team.
Time To Act
There are reports of the Mets talking with the Marlins about JT Realmuto. They are itching to trade. The competition for Syndergaard is falling away. The Red Sox can solve the Mets catching problems. Fire up the Knights of Cydonia and let’s rock this trade Dave Dombrowski.
