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RED SOX – ASTROS SERIES PREVIEW

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The Red Sox came away from last weekend disappointed to go down 1-2 to the Astros in Fenway. Now, after a trip to Toronto, they head down to Houston hoping to extract some revenge. Can the Red Sox go into Minute Maid Park and spring a surprise on the best team in baseball right now?

5/24 Chris Sale vs. Wade Miley (L) 8:10 pm NESN

5/25 David Price vs. Brad Peacock (R) 7:15 pm FOX

5/26 Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Justin Verlander (R) 2:10 pm NESN

NOTABLE NUMBERS

PITCHERS

The Red Sox three starters in this series have a combined 7-10 record. Rodriguez has four of those wins and three losses. In those wins he averages one earned run allowed per game. In the losses, that number is 6.67. As for Sale, he is 1-5, with all those losses coming in the first six games. Despite allowing just six earned combined in his last three starts, Sale has not managed to get a single decision. Both of Price’s wins have come when he has allowed precisely zero earned runs. If he allows any earned he has either taken the loss or a no-decision.

Justin Verlander is in the form of his life this season. The 36-year old pitcher has a 2.24 ERA and 89 strikeouts in 72 1/3 innings. To put some context on that Verlander has started 11 games this season. In eight of them he has allowed zero or one earned runs. Even when he struggles the worst he has done is allow for earned runs.

Brad Peacock and Wade Miley have not been as good as Verlander overall. However, pitching in Houston they have been incredible. Peacock has a 2.89 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 33 strikeouts in 28 innings at home. Miley has 21 strikeouts in 23 1/3 innings, but has a ridiculously low 2.31 ERA and a .94 WHIP.

HITTERS

J.D. Martinez started his career in Houston back in 2011. In his three seasons with the Astros he hit just 24 home runs with a .251 batting average. He has hit over 20 home runs in every season since he left Houston. In each of the last three seasons, Martinez has hit at least one home run in Minute Maid Park.

Houston’s offense has been great this season in general, but wow their numbers at home are impressive. As a team they have a .302 batting average, a .529 slugging and a .228 ISO. Leading that charge is George Springer, with his 17 home runs, four stolen bases and .313 batting average. He has seven of those home runs and a .333 batting average at home.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

The Rotation: Arguably this is the Red Sox first choice threesome for a playoff series. A healthy Nathan Eovaldi would also be in the conversation, but right now this would be the ideal three. However, all three have had their struggles this season. With three very good pitchers opposing them, the Red Sox starters need to at least show they can compete with the Astros starters in this series.

Hitting: The key for the offense in this series is just putting pressure on the pitchers. In Minute Maid Park, the highest WHIP among these pitchers is the 1.00 value for Peacock. These pitchers have had their way at home this season, and the Red Sox need to change that. If the offense can string hits together and put these guys in situations they are not used to, then just maybe they can break open a couple of them in their homefield stronghold.

EXPECTATIONS

After the Astros took two games in the series last weekend in Fenway there is perhaps not much optimism for this series. The Astros already seem like a very complete team, while the Red Sox are still figuring themselves out.

The key goal this weekend needs to be competitive. Obviously three wins would be great, but if that does not happen we just need to see the Red Sox be competitive. Even if the series ends with three wins to the Astros, as long as the Red Sox pitchers show promise, and the hitters put some hits together and apply pressure, there will be a lot of positives to take away from this series.

MLB Season Win Totals: Over/Unders

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The build up to the start of the baseball season is always a lot of fun for many reasons. Maybe you love fantasy baseball, or maybe you just love the sounds, smells and feelings that come with baseball. The start of the season brings something for everyone, and that includes the gamblers among us. Last week as a staff we looked at some of our MVP and Cy Young picks. If you are looking to have a bet on those markets you can find our feelings there. Instead I will focus on the season win totals and try to identify some juicy over/under bets for you to take advantage of.

I will start with the Red Sox but there is not really a bet to be had. The starting line is set at 94.5, a whopping 13.5 wins less than they had last season. However, when you look closer at elements such as the Pythagorean win total (103) and their record in one score games (25-14) there is room for regression in that total. Add in the lack of a lock down closer and a win total in the mid-90s is a very likely outcome.

Houston Astros Over 96.5

It may seem aggressive to project any team to win more than 96.5 games, but the Astros have the talent to do it. They are perhaps the best all-around team in the American League and their division rivals often blow hot and cold. Last season they won 103 games, but their Pythagorean total was even higher at 108. Additionally, that record came despite just being .500 in one run games. The combination of the Pythagorean total and the one-run record suggest to me the Astros could get over 100 wins once again this season.

Milwaukee Brewers Under 86.5

2019 is a fascinating season for the darlings of the 2018 season. The Brewers stunned the league and nearly made it all the way to the NLCS. However, the fact that were a surprise package means there are question marks for 2019. Their rotation lacks both ace level upside and struggles for depth. They also play in a division which has quality from 1-5, which could make repeating their 96 win season tough. Equally their Pythagorean win total was five lower at 91, and their record in one run games was a whopping 33-19. Both of those numbers scream regression, and combined with my other concerns I think the Brewers slip back to a .500 baseball team this season.

Los Angeles Dodgers Over 93.5

Another super aggressive projection for a relatively high win total. However, they were actually relatively unlucky to only win 92 games, as their Pythagorean win total was up at 102 wins. No team in the majors had a bigger difference between those two totals. The Dodgers have lost some quality offensively, but they still have a ton of talent. In addition, their rotation has both the high end skill and the depth that you want from a major contender. The Dodgers will be right there come playoff conversation time this season.

Baltimore Orioles Under 59.5

To end let’s bring this back to the AL East, the 2018 last placed team overall. The Orioles finished the season with 47 wins and they may actually have been lucky to get that many. The Orioles won an incredible 70% of their one run games in 2018. If that regressed back towards 50% this season they could struggle to reach 45 wins. However, they were slightly hard done by last season if their Pythagorean win total of 55 is to be believed. The issue there is that even if that was true they would still have been four wins below their over/under this season. A team that was that bad, and actually lost talent during the season, is a prime candidate to be bad again.

Image credit: Sports Illustrated

Should The Red Sox Go After Noah Syndergaard?

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The Baseball Hot Stove is beginning. It’s winter, so warm up.  There are reports out there that the New York Mets are open to trading Noah Syndergaard.  Could Thor be in the Red Sox future?  Cue the Led Zeppelin and put on your mittens while we take a look.

Syndergaard’s Injuries

Noah Syndergaard has had a number of injuries, but his ‘injury prone‘ label is unwarranted.  In May of 2018, he had a strained ligament in his right index finger.  It’s unknown how he did it, perhaps playing Fortnite or Red Dead Redemption 2 a little too vigorously, but it held him out six weeks.  Then in late July, he suffered from the plague that hit New York pitchers hard: Hand, Foot and Mouth disease.  The scourge of toddlers may be embarrassing, but it’s hardly a long-term problem.

The major injury for Thor was a strained right lat muscle in May of 2017.  I’m not a doctor, so the details are a bit beyond me, but the bottom line is he did not need surgery.  Furthermore, this was not a rotator cuff or elbow injury.  Yes, it wiped out most of his 2017, but there has been no recurrence of the injury.

Contract Status

Because he missed the bulk of 2017, Noah Syndergaard has an incredibly affordable contract for someone of his stature.  He still has three years of arbitration ahead of him, and he’s starting 2019 from the low rung of $2.975 Million.

That means that even if he performs like a Cy Young candidate in 2019 and 2020 he still won’t be breaking the bank.  In short, this man is probably the best bargain in baseball as long as he’s healthy.  And it appears that he is.

End Of 2018 Performance

Syndergaard had a rough August as his body recovered from sickness, but he poured it on in September.  He went 4-1 with two complete games, including a shutout to end the season.  His Statcast average pitch speed was over 97 MPH on his fastball, so he’s still throwing much harder than the average incredible baseball player who is on any Major League roster.

On September 14th, Noah Syndergaard came to Fenway Park and pitched a beauty against arguably the greatest Red Sox team of all time.  7 innings, 3 hits, 6 strikeouts.  After the performance he tweeted out this nugget of a tantalizing possibility:

I’m sorry, but in light of the rumors of his availability, can I freak out now?

How He Fits On The Red Sox

It’s no secret that the Red Sox have a rather large bill coming due at the end of 2019.  Chris Sale’s contract is up.  Xander Bogaerts is hitting free agency.  JD Martinez has an opt-out in his contract.  Mookie Betts even now is looking to break records in arbitration.

As stated above, Syndergaard is cost controlled.  So while he is at that $2.975 Million number and coming off a season where he missed some time and made only 25 starts, Mookie is at $10.5 Million and coming off an MVP season.  The lower you start from in arbitration, the lower you end up the next year, and vice versa.

For a Red Sox team that is paying David Price over $30 Million, with at least that much needing to go to Chris Sale if they want to keep him, Syndergaard is a dream contract.  Furthermore, there is no starting pitcher depth in the Red Sox minor league system.  Low-cost young stars are the lifeblood of successful major league teams.  Noah Syndergaard is the very essence of the solution to these problems.

For these reasons, he won’t come cheap.

What A Trade Would Look Like

Alarmingly, the Red Sox main competition in the American League are pegged as landing spots for Syndergaard.  But the possible assets from the Yankees and Astros can’t measure up to the firepower the Red Sox can offer.

I was willing to trade Rafael Devers for very few players.  Kris Bryant was one of those players.  That is because Bryant is young and an MVP winner and perennial MVP candidate.  But Bryant would cost a lot soon.  Syndergaard is almost the equivalent as a pitcher that Bryant is as a batter and third baseman, and he’s cheap.

I’m also an advocate for taking advantage of Christian Vazquez’s value at this moment in time.

The Mets are working on getting 3B David Wright’s contract off their books.  They also have a hole at catcher.

I think the framework is there for a Rafael Devers and Christian Vazquez for Noah Syndergaard swap.  I do know that this is a trade that meets what the Mets may be looking for.

This would be a major shake-up of the future of the Red Sox.  Most likely this would mean the Sox would not be in on Nathan Eovaldi, the Sox number one target of this offseason, but maybe not.  It would definitely mean letting go of all the potential and promise of Rafael Devers.  Perhaps there’s a certain swiss army knife, who’s won a recent World Series with Alex Cora, the Sox could sign to play third?

The Mets GM, Brodie Van Wagenen, is an unknown entity at the moment.  There’s no telling what he may do, but he is contacting a lot of starting pitchers’ agents.  It certainly appears he’s readying to trade Thor.

Think of top of this rotation on opening day: Chris Sale, Noah Syndergaard, David Price.  Kind of makes the drool flow freely from your gaping mouth right?

Nathan Eovaldi Should Be Top Priority

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2018 was a fun ride for fans and players, now it’s time to get down to business. For the Red Sox, I think they need to find a way to keep Eovaldi in Boston. Reports on the situation are that Boston does indeed want to re-sign him. If they are unable to make that happen, they want to sign another proven Major League starter to replace him. I think that it is imperative to keep him.

Here’s Why Eovaldi Needs To Stay

With Nathan Eovaldi re-signed Boston’s starting rotation would be unreal with Sale, Price, Porcello, and Rodriguez all staying put. Suring up that rotation with Nathan would be smart. Boston has their key offensive pieces in place. Boston doesn’t have to worry about Mookie Betts or JD Martinez this year, so instead of signing another veteran pitcher, this is why Eovaldi is the answer.

Game 4 of the ALDS against the rival Yankees, Eovaldi dominated, pitching 7 plus innings with 1 run allowed. New York is also one of the teams that could be in on him. As the Red Sox continued into the ALCS, Eovaldi was great again. 6 plus innings with just 2 runs as the Sox won Game 3 using his arm again. As we all know by now the Red Sox beat the Houston Astros, and we were introduced to the rover. Alex Cora used Eovaldi as his rover in game 5 of the ALCS and in Games 1 and 2 of the World Series. In those 3 games, he came into each game and threw fire allowing 0 runs, while making it look easy. Even with short rest, Boston was going to have him start Game 4 of the World Series, but Game 3 changed that plan.

Eovaldi Turns in Heroic Performance Showing His Selflessness

Rover

Eovaldi was perfect for the Red Sox and should stay in Boston

Once again, Eovaldi was called on as Game 3 of the World Series turned into a marathon of a game. Still tied in the 12th inning, Nathan Eovaldi came out of the pen. In one of the greatest performances I’ve ever witnessed, he turned in a heroic 6 inning relief appearance. He knew that he was putting his future in jeopardy, by pitching so often. Anything could have happened and he could’ve lost a lot of money. As a free-agent-to-be, he risked his health along with future contracts, but he just wanted to help his team. Putting all of that aside, he went deep into the 18th inning, hitting triple digits on the radar gun like it was nothing.

Eovaldi pitched a gem and kept the Sox in the game as long as he could. In the bottom of the 18th, he gave up a solo shot to end the longest game in history. His teammates were all amazed at what he just did, some brought to tears as they realized how much Nathan just gave for his team. I believe it galvanized an already very close clubhouse. Eovaldi was a huge reason for Boston’s Championship.

 Closing Thoughts on Nathan Eovaldi

Boston should do what they can to keep Eovaldi. He’s 28 years old, extremely dominant and the way he pitched since arriving in Boston is all I need to know about him. For what it’s worth he threw 16 scoreless innings against the Yankees in the regular season. Also, his 1.35 ERA in September combined with what he did in the postseason, I believe he’s worth the $15 million range. He himself said he’d love to stay in Boston. While many teams will be fighting for him, I believe he wants to be here enough that he and Boston will work something out.

Red Sox Free Agency 2019: Does Charlie Morton Compare to Nathan Eovaldi?

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One of the surprises of the 2019 Free Agency crop in Major League baseball is that Charlie Morton is available.  The Astros did not sign him before he hit free agency and they did not extend him a qualifying offer.

Nathan Eovaldi In Demand

Why does that matter to the Red Sox?  Because Nathan Eovaldi is suddenly starting to attract attention in the market.  A quick google search will show the Yankees’ interest.  And shockingly, curveball enthusiast Lance McCullers is going to miss the 2019 season for the Astros due to Tommy John Surgery.  According to many, this puts Eovaldi on the Astros list.

All of this is to say, the Red Sox will have a lot of competition for Eovaldi.  And while we rightly sing songs to his World Series heroics, it’s not like Eovaldi is the second coming of Pedro Martinez.  So it’s worth asking, if Eovaldi signs elsewhere, are there legit replacements available?

Charlie Morton

Let’s play a choose your own pitcher game.  Here are the average stats for the past two active seasons of each pitcher.  One of these is Charlie Morton, the other is Nathan Eovaldi:

  • Pitcher A: 118 innings, 23 starts, 4.28 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 7.6 K/9, 2.5 BB/9
  • Pitcher B: 157 innings, 27 starts, 3.53 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, 3.3 BB/9

Can you guess which is which?  A is Eovaldi, B is Morton.  Charlie Morton gets a bad rap that he’s injury prone, but he’s averaging 157 innings a year, which is what you need from a number 3, 4 or 5 starter.  He walks a few more than Eovaldi but strikes out a lot more too.

The fact that Morton, like Eovaldi, is right-handed also works in his favor.  The Sox already have three left-handers in Sale, Price and Eduardo Rodriguez.  There are a lot of right-handed bats on the Red Sox closest competitors, the Yankees, and Astros.  Having a right-handed starter to counteract Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, George Springer, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Carlos Correa is a necessity.

One other nugget about Morton: He is the forerunner of Eovaldi in terms of bullpen work in the ALCS and World Series in 2017.

Charlie Morton is 35 years old, 6 years older than Eovaldi, and because of that, there will be less demand for his services.  MLB Trade Rumors state, and I love this, that Morton is aging like fine wine.  They also estimate a 2 year $32 Million deal for him, verse a 4 year $60 Million deal for Eovaldi.

The Alex Cora Connection

There’s that man again.  Cora worked with Charlie Morton last year with the Astros, he has the inside knowledge on this guy.  Because of this, if there is smoke out there about the Sox interest in Morton I would believe it.

To me, Nathan Eovaldi is the Number 1 priority for the Red Sox in Free Agency.  But if the numbers start to creep towards $20 million a year I think the Red Sox should search for alternatives.  Charlie Morton is a great back up plan.

The 2018 Red Sox Are One of the Greatest Ever

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The Red Sox completed their ultimate goal last night, dispatching the Dodgers in five games. It was a fitting end to a season that saw them set a franchise record for wins. So where do these Red Sox rank among some of the greatest teams in Major League history?

Total Wins

The Red Sox won 108 games in the regular season, setting a franchise record. The 1912 Red Sox, who also won the World Series, won 105 games in a 154 game season. The Red Sox 108 wins places them in a tie for ninth most all-time. Due to the shorter seasons pre-1961, they rank a bit further down in terms of winning percentage. The case can be made though that this team had a tougher road.

There was no free agency in those days, so teams did not need to fear losing their players. Also, there was no postseason. If a team had the best record in their league, they made the World Series. There was no going through teams like the Yankees and the Astros again in the

Graphic from the Baseball Nexus

postseason after beating them out in the regular season.

Since free agency began, only the 2001 Mariners and the 1998 Yankees won more games than the Red Sox did this year. The same holds true for total amount of wins, when combining regular season and postseason wins. The 1998 Yankees won 125 and the Seattle Mariners won 120, and the Mariners did not even make the World Series that season, let alone win it. No other team in baseball history, pre-free agency or post-free agency, won more than 119 games; So this Red Sox team is in some rarefied air.

Postseason Road

It is safe to say that no team in history has faced the tall task the Red Sox just went through in the postseason. After winning 108 regular season games, the Red Sox reward was facing a 100 win Yankees team. The 100 wins from the Yankees was more than any National League team won. The Red Sox steamrolled through their rivals in four games however.

Next up was the 103 win and defending champion Houston Astros. Despite the Red Sox having the top record, many thought the Astros would be too strong for them. They were, after all, the defending champions and had improved their pitching staff this season. The Astros 103 wins were two more than they accomplished last season and placed behind only this seasons Red Sox and last season’s Dodgers for the most wins of the decade.

After dropping the first game, the Red Sox had no more issues with the Astros, taking four straight to dispatch of the defending world champions. The final three of those wins came in Houston and included beating future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander in the deciding game.

In the World Series, they faced the Dodgers, who were playing for the championship for the second consecutive season. The Red Sox didn’t have much trouble with them either, winning in just five games. It took the Dodgers 18 innings to win one game from the Red Sox. In that 18 inning affair, the Red Sox top four spots in the batting order combined to go 0-28, and it still took 18 innings and an egregious miscue in the field from second baseman Ian Kinsler for the Dodgers to win a game.

Ian Kinsler looks in disbelief after his error led to the Dodgers tying the game.

Star Power

As all great teams do, the Red Sox weren’t short of star power. Mookie Betts looks like he will probably win the MVP Award, after going 30-30 while leading the league in hitting. His closest contender for the award might be teammate J.D. Martinez, who hit .330 with 43 home runs and 130 runs batted in. On the mound, Chris Sale was the favorite for Cy Young until a couple disabled list stints in the second half.

And yet, despite the star power, the Red Sox did not win because of that. This truly was a team effort, showing just how great of a team it is. Mookie Betts batted just .217 with a .699 OPS in the World Series and hit only one home run the entire postseason. J.D. Martinez was a more human .278 hitter with an .881 OPS in the World Series. Chris Sale did not win a game in the series.

Instead, everyone pitched in, with journeyman Steve Pearce taking home the World Series MVP honors. The much-maligned David Price got his redemption. After struggling in his first couple postseason outings, running his playoff record to 0-9, Price bested Justin Verlanded in the deciding game of the ALCS, then won games two and five in the World Series. Nathan Eovaldi was practically not human, pitching six innings of relief in game three while routinely pushing triple digits with his fastball. He then volunteered to pitch again later that same day.

Boston Red Sox’s Steve Pearce celebrates after his home run against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the eighth inning in Game 4 of the World Series. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

Conclusion

So where do these Red Sox rank amongst the greatest teams ever assembled? It is hard to pinpoint an exact place, especially factoring in the different styles of play and the way the game has changed over the years. However, it is clear this team is near the top. The 1927 and 1998 Yankees usually get talked about, as do the 1929 Athletics. The Big Red Machine of the 1970’s is up there as well, but this team can win with them all, and winning is truly all that matters.

Featured image from Newshub.com

Raising a Glass to Rick Porcello

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Let’s take a minute to appreciate Rick Porcello from the ho hum, nothing to see here, game three of the ALCS in Houston.  He comes in to start the fourth inning and proceeds to give up a pesky pole special, a 326 foot homer to Mookie’ Betts’ best pal, and number 9 hitter, Tony Kemp. 

Tony Kemp.  What a gnat.  If the script was flipped and Houston wins in five it might’ve been him instead of our beloved JBJ being the ALCS MVP.  Then he faces the daunting top of the Astros lineup.

THE SETTING

Just imagine: The roof is closed on Minute Maid park, the smell of leather, sweat, the Jackson Street BBQ and Taco Trio in the air.  The awesome noise of the Houston fans pounding on his amygdala.  It’s Alex Bregman at bat looking to atone for inciting the Sox with his Instagram post before game 3.  Can we get an Instagram post of this sweet 102 MPH dot he swung through in his last at bat of the season?  You know, this one.  Ah, I think David Price said it better. 

THE PITCHING

At one point in the series Bregman was slashing a .000 batting average, .700 on base average, and .000 slugging percentage that was blowing statisticians minds.  Porcello dispatched the 800 lb gorilla of the Astros lineup with a strikeout, spotting the low and outside corner again and again. Then comes George Springer, doing his best Carlos Beltran playoff edition impression, having already homered and doubled in this game alone.  Walk.  Springer sprints to second on a blown Porcello toss over, inciting the Houston Thunderdome again.  

It’s 4 – 3 Astros and they’re looking for more.  With two outs now Rick has the Astro’s Tyrion Lannister, full of rage and frustration from having a home run taken away, or not, to deal with.  And Altuve’s doing his best Kirk Gibson, limping along and stinging every ball he gets his bat on. Porcello induces a gentle, tiny, wrapped like a little burrito just out of the womb, infield pop up.  As insignificant an outcome as there is from one of the best bat handlers in the game. Brilliance.

THE MAN

Yes, Rick Porcello didn’t have his best stuff.  The Astros got to him.  But Houston was on the precipice of routing him in the early innings of ALCS game 4 and he held his ground against the toughest part of the deepest lineup (I was hoping the national media wouldn’t notice the Red Sox incredibly deep lineup but I think we’re beyond that) in baseball and stood as tall as Nolan Ryan or, dare I say, David Price ever did.  We tip our weathered hats and frayed nerves to you Rick Porcello. May Chris Sale endeavor to emulate you.

W2W4: Red Sox vs. Astros

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The Red Sox take on the Houston Astros this weekend in a three game set that many believe is an ALCS preview. There will be plenty to take in at Fenway Park over the next few days. Here’s what I’ll be keeping my eye on:

Aces, Charles, You’re Aces

Aces are often the case when top flight teams face off, and there will be some big time pitching matchups worth tuning in for.

Friday night’s tilt features two of the AL’s best: Gerrit Cole and David Price. Cole was a CY Young favorite earlier this season. In his first 10 starts, he went 5-1 with a 1.86 ERA and a .169 batting average against. However, he’s cooled recently. Since the calendar flipped to August, he’s 3-2 with a 4.11 ERA. Conversely, Price is just hitting his stride. The 2012 AL CY Young award winner has been on fire since the All-Star break. He’s shut down opposing bats to the tune of a 1.62 second-half ERA, with an exquisite 6.14 K/BB ratio over his last 7 starts.

Saturday’s matchup is solid as well, with Houston’s Charlie Morton (13-3, 3.13 ERA) facing off against Eduardo Rodriguez (12-3, 3.34 ERA). Both guys are in the midst of career years, and overcoming recent DL stints. This will be Morton’s first start since August 28th, and Rodriguez’s second start since returning from the DL earlier this month. Of course, we all remember how that first start went:

As if that wasn’t enough, Sunday features the two of the last three AL CY Young winners. Rick Porcello is looking to rebound from an especially tough stretch; he’s allowed a HR in 10 of his last 13 starts, and has a 5.21 ERA since June 27th. Dallas Keuchel has been Houston’s 4th best starter, though he’d be a #2 or #3 guy on most clubs. He’s been effective all season long, and will be coming off of a 6 inning, 0 earned-run outing against the Twins on Monday.

Even without Chris Sale and Justin Verlander toeing the rubber, both teams have plenty of starting pitching to keep things interesting all weekend.

Mitchy No Bags

On May 25th, the Red Sox DFA’ed Hanley Ramirez. There were plenty of extenuating factors that went into that roster decision, including first-baseman Mitch Moreland‘s red hot start. It made sense at the time. Moreland was hitting .318/.393/.636 with 8 HR in 122 PA, along with his typically stellar defense. He’s since gone into a tailspin. In 75 games since May 26th, Moreland is only slashing .220/.294/.374 with 7 HR. He’s also 1 for his last 18 at bats.

Moreland is a career .252/.318/.440 hitter, and the totality of his 2018 has reflected that larger sample size. However, considering how hard he faltered in the second half of 2017, Sox fans have reason to worry that they won’t get enough out of a key cog come playoff time. If Moreland is going to get hot again, this weekend would be a good time to start.

Old Dogs, Old Tricks

Second base has been a struggle for the Sox this season. They rank 26th in the majors with a 83 wRC+ at that position. Dustin Pedroia‘s consistent offensive output and strong defense (*cough* Nunez *cough*) has been missed.

The good news? A couple of former All-Stars have made their presence felt at that spot recently. Ian Kinsler and Brandon Phillips may be long in the tooth, but they’re contributing in a big way down the stretch.

Kinsler got off to a slow start this season. But, he began to find a rhythm right before the Red Sox acquired him on July 30th. In 21 games for Boston, he’s hit .310/.355./408 with a 106 OPS+. His slick defense has been a major upgrade, too. Kinsler was 4-11 with 5 RBI in the Red Sox sweep of the Braves earlier this week, including a couple of rare (for him) opposite-field gappers.

Brandon Phillips signed a minor league contract in June, and made his Red Sox debut on Wednesday. His impact was, in a word, immediate:

There’s still about a month until the postseason roster shakes out. But these two former All-Stars have tons to offer the Sox in the here and now. We’ll see if they continue to make the most of their opportunities against the reigning world champs.

This weekend is must watch TV for Red Sox fans. The results may not be predicative of what will happen in October, but they will go a long way towards determining who has the upper hand should we see this matchup again.

 

Comparing The 2003 Red Sox to The 2018 Red Sox

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While nearly 15 years has separated these two teams, there are a lot of similarities between them. With what appears to be two different ages of baseball, what can we take away from the ages?

The opening day lineups.

In 2003, The opening day lineup looked like this. 1. Johnny Damon CF, 2. Todd Walker 2B, 3. Nomar Garciaparra SS, 4. Manny Ramirez LF, 5. Kevin Millar 1B, 6. Shea Hillenbrand 3B, 7. Jeremy Giambi DH, 8. Trot Nixon RF, 9. Jason Varitek C Starting Pitcher Pedro Martinez.

This lineup had it all.  They had key veteran players to build around. They had speed, raw power, and most of all talent. This team was poised to make a deep October run until the rival Yankees ended it on a sour note. The 2004 team would eventually reverse the 86 year long drought. After that “The Curse of The Great Bambino” was over.

This season, the Opening Day lineup consisted of 1. Mookie Betts RF, 2. Andrew Benintendi LF, 3. Hanley Ramirez 1B ( not on the team anymore.) 4. J.D Martinez DH, 5. Xander Bogaerts SS, 6. Rafael Devers 3B, 7. Eduardo Nunez 2B, 8. Jackie Bradley Jr. CF, 9. Christian Vazquez C. Starting Pitcher Chris Sale. 

The Similarities.

This team also has raw power and speed. Their ace Chris Sale is most comparable to Pedro Martinez in his intensity and competitiveness. Both teams had a multitude of different ways to scare opponents offensively.

By the numbers: Both teams led the league in runs batted in, hits, OPS, total bases, and extra base hits. Both teams were leading their division up to this point in the season (2018 season isn’t 100% over yet). These teams were offensive power houses that American League teams were scared to pitch against.

Both teams provided some serious defense as well. It wasn’t always about amazing run support. The pair of teams had a stud patrolling in right field (2018 Betts, 2003 Nixon). Both teams had a perennial shortstop (Bogaerts, Garciaparra). Both teams had a highly regarded designated hitter (Martinez, Giambi). Finally, both teams made a very questionable move during the season (2018 cutting Hanley, 2003 signing David Ortiz).

In both cases they had their first seasons with an incredible duo. After the signing of David Ortiz to pair with Ramirez the tandem would go on to ravage pitchers for years. Most would regard the two as the best 3 and 4 hitter combo of all time. In 2018, the J.D and Mookie combo offers hope of a new duo equal to that of the deadly 2003 pair. Offering up a different approach to the game, this duo can hit, work the count, and launch home runs with the best of them.

Some differences that should be highlighted.

One of the biggest differences were the managers. Grady little led the team in 2003. After a controversial ending to their season he was heavily blamed for not cruising by the Yankees. This led to his timely firing by Theo Epstein and company. Which led to the hiring of legendary manager Terry Francona.

In 2018 the Red Sox are led by Alex Cora, the former bench coach of the defending World Series Champion Houston Astros. He is way ahead of his time. In implementing his system, his bench coaches and assistants utilize new forms of measurements in the game. Using new revelations such as: launch angle, statcast, war, and other forms of saber metrics. He is one of the main reasons why this 2018 team is on the verge of making history.

Comparing managers and General managers.

As for the general managers, they too take separate approaches. Theo was a free agent build type of guy, along with an incredible farm system. That’s how he also made the Chicago Cubs a world series champion. He is also one of the youngest general managers to win a World Series, as well.

On the other hand, Dave Dombrowski also has a winning approach. Dombrowski arrived after the departure of former GM Ben Cherington. He built the franchise into a winning culture in a matter of two seasons. While most people note the demolition of the farm system, it is slowly building itself back up with great draft additions such as Tristan Casas. Dave has also won a title with the then Florida Marlins, who now are called the Miami Marlins.

Even the fact that it seems like a different era of baseball is very prevalent. Pitchers are throwing harder, while also not staying in the game as long as they used to. Guys like Nolan Ryan and Greg Maddox were pitching a lot more innings a season.

The MLB commissioner office seems like it is always trying to speed up the game, while not being as concerned with more pressing matters such as PEDs and off the field incidents. As long as the commissioner can stay focused on the most important matters the sport can continue to grow and be more fun for generations to come.

Conclusion.

While both teams are strikingly similar, the differences stand out well. The 2018 team is more aggressive on the base paths, and are much faster. That comes with the evolution of the game. This team is also a lot younger than Red Sox teams of years past. This 2018 team looks very hungry, but hopefully the outcome will differ from the fate of the 2003 team.

While the 2018 season is still heating up, how it will be written among the other Red Sox teams will soon come into fruition. Keep it here for the best coverage of all your favorite Boston teams and players. Only at Bostonsportsextra.com

Can The Red Sox Get To 116 Wins?

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While the Red Sox have an unprecedented 85-35 win loss record, can they catch up to a record only two teams have ever achieved before?

116 wins, something only two teams have ever won that many games in a single season. The 2001 Seattle Mariners and the 1906 Chicago Cubs. The only difference… the 1906 Cubs played 152 games that year. This 2018 Red Sox team currently holds a .708 win percentage, however, there are still 42 games to be played.

The path to 116

With 42 games left in the regular season, the Red Sox would have to go 31-11 to finish the season. With 7 games against the Indians, 6 against the Yankees, and 3 against the defending champs as the hard part of the remaining schedule. Can this team achieve a .739 winning percentage during the last stretch? It’s definitely up for debate.

Who can help?

The numerous games with teams such as the Tampa Bay Rays, Baltimore Orioles, and Toronto Blue Jays should be a promising sign, as long as they don’t lose easy games. Although there will be more frequent rest periods, ( including innings limits for starters), Alex Cora will still manage this team to be more competitive and hungry than the game before.

With MVP candidates Mookie Betts and J.D Martinez still staying hot at the plate, is there any wonder to how this team became so amazing? We cannot forget to mention David Price, Xander Bogaerts, Chris Sale, and all of the other guys who keep this team competitive. This team really has adapted the New England Patriot way of next guy up mentality. They way Boston sports has evolved into team equality has been astonishing to see.

What are the odds?

While finding the exact odds are improbable, they do have some numbers on their side. Out of their remaining schedule, 24 of the games are at home,  while owning the leagues best home win loss record. The team has a 9-1 record throughout their last 10 games. They have never lost more than three games consecutively all season long.

No matter what happens a strong playoff run looks imminent. as long as the team comes out of the regular season as injury-less as possible, I and fellow members of Red Sox nation can sleep well at night.

What do you think?

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