When news crackled off the wire that the Red Sox had signed Jenrry Mejia it was confirmed: The Red Sox payroll problems are real, and they’re spectacular. The only relief help walking through that door is the thrice failed, suspended-for-life, then reinstated kind. While wandering eyes look for a free agent, there’s a stalwart right in front of us. Matt Barnes is the most reliable, time tested, experienced, and talented holdover whose time has come. Matt Barnes should be The Closer for the Red Sox.
Slow and steady wins the race
Let’s be honest: If Craig Kimbrel would sign a two year, $20 million deal he would be the closer. But he’s worth more, and the Red Sox won’t pay him. So we have Barnes.
Ryan Brasier came out of nowhere to deliver last year. But the book on him is still being written. You better believe the hitters will catch up with him this year. Then there is Matt Barnes.
Check out his three year progression in ERA/WHIP/K per 9/Ground Ball %:
2016: 4.05/1.395/9.6/46%
2017: 3.88/1.220/10.7/49%
2018: 3.65/1.265/14.0/53%
Unlike Brasier, or even Thornburg, Barnes forged his record in the crucible of the AL East. Sure, he walks a few, that’s why his WHIP isn’t closer to 1.0, but his progression is one of an artist honing his craft. He has steadily produced more strikeouts and ground balls. That is the special sauce that creates a successful pitcher.
Opportunity
With the Red Sox looking down the barrel of paying Mookie, and the prospect of Sale, Porcello, Bogaerts, and Martinez becoming free agents after 2019, there is scant money left for the bullpen. Tyler Thornburg is coming off injury, Ryan Brasier is new, Durbin Feltman is untested. Matt Barnes has worked his way up to being the set up guy last year. He has been doubted and ridiculed, passed over for starters in the postseason despite pitching lights out.
The time is now for Matt Barnes to become the Red Sox closer.
The uniform numbers 56-60 for the Boston Red Sox feature the franchise’s greatest closer, and one of the more dominant postseason closers ever. It also celebrates a man who had a t-shirt made about him this past season. Find out who makes the cut for the numbers 56-60.
Number 56 – Joe Kelly
Joe Kelly gathered quite a following for himself this past season. On April 11, Joe Kelly hit Yankees Tyler Austin with a pitch and urged him to charge the mound. Kelly proceeded to win the fight and the hearts of many Bostonians. Shirts were made about it, titled “Joe Kelly Fight Club.”
Kelly was miscast as a starting pitcher when he first came to Boston, but he mostly did well after being moved to the bullpen. Throwing heat reaching 100 at times, Kelly’s two-pitch mix featuring the heater played up much better in the pen. After a mediocre run from the trade deadline in 2014 through 2015, Kelly had a miserable six start stint in the first half of 2016. Moved to the bullpen, he went 2-0 with a 1.02 ERA over 14 appearances the rest of the season.
Kelly was excellent in 2017, winning four games against just one loss. He had a 2.79 ERA and at one point pitched 23 straight games without allowing a run.
This past season had its ups and downs, but Kelly came through when it mattered most. He allowed only one run over a span of 24 games early in the season before hitting tough times. He finished the season with a 4.39 ERA, but with an ERA over 8.00 in June, July and September. Come playoff time, fighting Joe Kelly was back. He allowed just one earned run over 11.1 innings and pitched six shutout innings in the World Series. This gave him a 0.51 ERA in the postseason over three postseason trips with the Red Sox.
Honorable Mentions: Darren Bragg, Ramon Ramirez
Number 57 – Eduardo Rodriguez
Another member of the 2018 World Series Champions, Rodriguez will likely be back with the club in 2019, unlike Kelly. This past season was the first of Rodriguez’ career where he wore the number 57, but he still did enough to earn the nod. Over his first three seasons he wore number 52 and earned an honorable mention at the number.
2018 is all that gets factored in for the sake of this article, because it is only what he did while wearing this particular number. Rodriguez won 13 games for the Red Sox and only lost five. He had a nice 3.82 ERA and struck out 10.1 batters per nine innings pitched. On September 1st he struck out 12 White Sox in only 5.2 innings pitched in his return from a disabled list stint. Rodriguez didn’t pitch very well in the postseason, but he certainly helped the team in setting a franchise record for wins.
Honorable Mention: Ron Mahay
Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez pitches against the New York Yankees during the first inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports
Number 58 – Jonathan Papelbon
Papelbon was always so intimidating on the mound; the way he lowered his head to peer in at the signs, his eyes just looking out from under the brim of his cap with a look that said “I’m going to throw this ball through you.” He could back it up too. Over his first four seasons, Papelbon was probably the best closer in all of baseball.
After showing potential as a call-up in 2005, Papelbon served as the Red Sox closer in 2006 and never looked back. He posted one of the most dominant seasons you will find, pitching to a 0.92 ERA and 0.78 WHIP. Papelbon saved 35 games that season as a rookie.
In 2007 he struck out a career best 13 batters per nine innings. He had a 1.85 ERA, 0.77 WHIP and saved 37 games. In the postseason he was untouchable, pitching 10.2 shutout innings. Papelbon saved three games in the World Series and was on the mound for the final out.
Papelbon continued his dominant ways, saving 41 games the next year before lowering his ERA back under 2.00 in 2009. From 2006-09 he had a 1.74 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 10.6 K/9 and 151 saves. He wasn’t as dominant his last two years in Boston, but he did have a WHIP under 1.00 again in 2011.
Papelbon made four all-star teams with the Red Sox, and saved a franchise record 219 games. During the postseason he pitched 26 shutout innings before he was finally scored upon. He is the greatest Red Sox reliever for an entire body of work, and the only 58 worth mentioning.
Number 59 – Tommy Layne
Layne is not a name one might expect to find here, but crazy things happen in the higher numbers. He was a lefty specialist for the Red Sox over parts of three seasons, making the trip to and from Pawtucket a few times.
Layne first appeared on the team in 2014, posting a sterling 0.95 ERA over 30 relief appearances, totaling 19 innings. This would not be the norm, but that isn’t the norm for anyone. He did a solid job with the team over the next two seasons before they moved on. He put men on base, but at least never had an ERA of 4.00 or higher until he pitched for the Yankees in 2017. Over 95.1 innings in Boston, Layne had a 3.30 ERA.
Honorable Mention: Clayton Mortensen
Number 60 – Daniel Bard
But wait, Daniel Bard was number 51 you say? That’s correct, Bard did most of his work wearing the number 51 on his back and was chosen as the greatest Red Sox player to wear that number. So how come he is number 60 as well? His rookie season, Bard wore the number 60, and the competition is very light. Daniel Nava wore the number 60 for only one season as well, his rookie season, and Bard had a better rookie season than Nava did.
Bard pitched 49.1 innings that year, showing off his 100 mile per hour heater. He had a 3.65 ERA and struck out 63 batters at a career best 11.5 batters per nine innings. He was dominant in front of his home crowd, going 2-0 with a 1.46 ERA at Fenway Park. In the postseason that year he pitched three perfect innings, striking out four batters.
2018 resulted in a league wide .248 batting average, the lowest since 1972. Singles are also in a five years decline. Apparently, according to Jason Stark of the Athletic, the Commissioner, owners, batters, and pitchers are all for shift reform.
Of course there’s backlash. People are decrying unintended consequences. The debate rages on.
Eovaldi’s Back
The Red Sox led off the Winter Meetings by agreeing with Nathan Eovaldi for 4 years and $67.5 Million. It seemed like a reasonable deal at the time. Little did we know something like this would happen, seemingly within hours of the signing becoming official:
It seems incredible, with the Red Sox coming off a World Series title and raising ticket prices, that they need to clear salary space. Dave Dombrowski threw some cold water on this story, but didn’t deny it.
A Red Sox Bullpen In Flux
Early this morning, new broke that Fightin’ Joe Kelly is going west.
Sources confirm the Los Angeles Dodgers are nearing an agreement with Joe Kelly, as @Ken_Rosenthal and @ByRobertMurray reported. Deal would be for three years and ~$25 million.
Kelly was one of the stalwarts of a transformed bullpen, that turned into a bunch of vintage Ecks, in the 2018 playoffs. With Kelly gone, could a reunion that seemed impossible happen?
Don’t count the Red Sox out on Craig Kimbrel yet. Agents who represent high-leverage relievers that the Red Sox are interested in have been told by the team that the Red Sox are waiting on Kimbrel. https://t.co/eP5A8combd
It seems incredible, with reports of Kimbrel seeking a six-year deal for nine figures, that he could come back. Apparently, the Red Sox are playing chicken and waiting for the price to come down.
Other than Kelly and Jeurys Familia, more on him in a minute, the reliever market has been quiet. The Sox probably need two more relievers this off-season.
2019 Lineup Changes
Alex Cora just said that Mookie will bat second next year. Benintendi to lead off.
Mookie has been known to resist moving out of the leadoff spot, and he can be stubborn, so Cora is planting the seed early.
It makes sense to move the more powerful Betts behind Benintendi. More RBIs for Mookie, a two-three of Mookie and JD is pretty formidable. This will lead to a right handed heavy 2-3-4, with Xander behind JD Martinez or vice versa.
Not every lineup can have Papi and Manny back to back.
Too Many Catchers
The Red Sox having one too many catchers has been an open question for some time. Alex Cora spoke about the possibility of a trade at the Winter Meetings:
The Red Sox have the assets to almost perfectly match up with the Mets. If the Red Sox are truly considering moving Jackie Bradley, would the Mets consider a left handed bat in the outfield? The Red Sox have extra catchers.
The Red Sox bullpen is in flux for 2019. Craig Kimbrel is out there asking for a 6-year deal, which the Red Sox will never give him. Joe Kelly is also a free agent, and his performance doesn’t exactly inspire. Because an already bloated Red Sox payroll, it’s looking like a budget bullpen piece is the answer. The place to go is Cody Allen.
Cody Allen Performance
Between the years of 2014 and 2017, Cody Allen was one of the best closers in the game. He averaged 32 saves a year as the anchor of a star-studded bullpen that included Andrew Miller. The Cleveland Indians rode that bullpen to a lot of postseason success, including a run to the 2016 World Series.
In the regular season, he averaged an ERA under 3 during that time, but he stepped it up in the Postseason. His career Postseason ERA was 0.47 in 19 innings. That’s positively vintage Mariano Rivera territory.
But then 2018 happened. He had a 4.70 ERA, lost his closer position, and got blown up in the Postseason. So what gives?
The information may be behind a paywall, but pitch usage points to a few things – specifically his curveball. The curve got less swing and misses in 2018, and he had some trouble throwing it for strikes. Furthermore, he lost a MPH on his fastball, which dipped below 94 MPH. The fastball/curve mix is what made him so deadly.
Maybe being in a free agent year got to him. Maybe he was simply tired and in this era of quick hooks and little patience he crumbled. But he wouldn’t be available if he had remained elite last year.
Contract Possibilities
A quick google search of Cody Allen shows a distinct lack of contract demands. There are not even stories out there like this one, saying Joe Kelly is being looked at by multiple teams as a closer. Because of this, it appears clear that Allen would come cheap. Maybe even on a one year deal. Now that’s more like it.
Cody Allen isn’t necessarily a sure thing, but he looks pretty good from here. He’s one year removed from being untouchable in the Postseason for many years. He’s only 30 years old, he’s cheap, and he would be an excellent gamble to pair with the remaining relievers on the staff, such as Ryan Brasier and Matt Barnes, in the late innings.
Furthermore, he is right-handed. This is essential. The Red Sox biggest competition, the Astros and Yankees, have a plethora of right-handed, middle of the order bats in their lineups. To me, that excludes left-handed possibilities for essential bullpen roles like Andrew Miller and Zach Britton. Kelvin Herrera is also cheap, right-handed, and recently successful, but arm troubles on top of foot troubles make him too risky.
There are changes coming to the 2019 Red Sox Bullpen. Yesterday I took a look at Joe Kelly. The biggest piece, closer Craig Kimbrel, is today’s focus.. Is he worth paying to keep and what are some options out there?
Craig Kimbrel
In 2017 Craig Kimbrel was the 800 lb gorilla of all time Red Sox closers. 5-0 with 35 saves and a 1.43 ERA. If he had been given more opportunity I’m sure he would’ve had even more saves.
Using a 3 year average is an attempt to have some perspective, but in Kimbrel’s case the 2017 season has a massive effect. Because Kimbrel’s three year stats are, frankly, amazing: 14.8 K/9 and a 2.52 ERA.
Even then though, the walks show through: 3.8 per 9 innings. That’s a lot of base runners. When he’s on his game and striking out the world, it works. When he’s not, let’s just say Alex Cora going with Chris Sale to close out game five says a ton. And Kimbrel giving up a two run home run to Kiki Hernandez of all people in game four brought back all those non save situation failures from prior years.
All of this is to say Kimbrel’s not a guarantee to bring back as the 2019 Red Sox closer. But who is out there who could be a good fit? Closers who have working in the American League and have postseason experience.
Kelvin Herrera will undoubtedly be the least expensive option. He suffered a torn Lisranc ligament in his left foot and had surgery for it on 8/30/2018. The recovery for that encompasses around six months and requires vigilance. That means he’ll be available a few weeks into spring training if all goes well.
There’s a lot to like about Herrera. He is the youngest of this group at 29 on Opening Day 2019. He also he walks the fewest batters. His 3 year average is 2.17 walks per 9 is the lowest of all the comparisons I’ve found in the top tier group. It is that low walk number than allows him to rival Kimbrel in the walk per strikeout stat. Herrera is 4.6 BB/K, Kimbrel is 4.97 BB/K.
His three year ERA is 3.15 and the Red Sox tried to trade for him at the trade deadline this year. His injuries were bad luck. This year was his first extended time on the DL.
Because of his injury there are questions about Herrera, but that will also make him less expensive. He very well could big the biggest relief Ace bargain of 2019.
This former Cleveland Indians closer fell out of favor due to an off year in 2018. While Kimbrel will be 31, Cody Allen will be 30 on opening day 2019.
Even with a bad 2018 he can stand next to Kimbrel at 3.8 BB/9 (Kimbrel is at 3.8) and he’s tantalizing because he will be cheaper than Kimbrel and has had a lot of success. In 2016 and 2017 he averaged a 2.73 ERA and 31 saves a year with almost 12 K/9. That is dominant.
Because of 4.70 ERA in 2018 and corresponding difficulties he’s a question. But a worthy gamble due to the potential of prior years and no obvious injury.
Conclusion
Ultimately I believe Kimbrel will come back if he’s asking for a reasonable salary. But if he’s pushing $20 Million like Mark Melancon I see a few appealing options out there that have pitched in the American League, in the playoffs, and are at reasonable age.
There are changes coming to the 2019 Red Sox Bullpen. Two big pieces, closer Craig Kimbrel and Joe Kelly, are both free agents. Who is worth paying to keep and what are some options out there?
Today is the beginning of our deep dive into those questions. We start with Joe Kelly.
Joe Kelly
Kelly had an indelible stamp on the 2018 team. He started the year by blowing game 1. He became Jim Buchanon and started a Joe Kelly Fight Club faze when he called out Tyler Austin of the Yankees. Then he became an afterthought and albatross around the neck of the bullpen as the summer dragged on.
But then, in the playoffs, the mid-bullpen became a strength, because he became a strength. In six innings in the World Series he had a 0.00 ERA and 10 strikeouts. That is domination.
However, is that the Joe Kelly we know for any other stretch of time? His ERA over the past three years has been 4.12 during the regular season. His fastball has averaged 97.8 MPH over that same time. How is that?
It has been noted frequently that his fastball is straight, and he could not get his breaking ball over for strikes. This lead to walks, a lot of them. Almost 5 per 9 innings, 4.67 to be exact.
It feels like instead of only relying on his gifted arm that can throw gas with ease, he finally starting pitching in this postseason. Because he threw his breaking ball for strikes, it was almost that simple.
It’s at least a question whether he can repeat it. Will he continue to work after winning the World Series? Is he worth betting on? History says no. How about an alternative?
David Robertson
One name is David Robertson. He has spent the past year and a half toiling in the mid to late innings for the New York Yankees. Before that he was the Chicago White Sox closer. Unlike Craig Kimbrel, Robertson has proven he can work in different innings and different game situations.
He throws a lot softer than Joe Kelly, averaging 91.9 MPH over the same 3 year period. But his ERA weighs in at 2.85, about 30% better than Kelly. He also strikes out 25% more batters. How can this be?
Because he throws more strikes, and he pitches rather than throws. He walks a batter less than Kelly. Less runners on base leads to fewer runs allowed.
Conclusion
It’s not perfect. Robertson still walks 3.7 per 9 innings, that’s high for a reliever. Robertson is also 3 years older than Kelly.
But Kelly was not given the 8th inning with a lead until game 5 of the World Series. This was not an accident, Cora didn’t trust him there. Robertson can work the 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, whatever you want.
Robertson will command north of what he’s making now, $13 Million per year. Kelly probably much less. But a team could bid up Kelly and make him expensive.
The choice here is Robertson, if you can convince him. He’s representing himself in free agent negotiations and probably looking for closing opportunities.
The Red Sox might have an opening at closer. More on that tomorrow.
Game 1 of the World Series always feels the most special. There’s the pregame ceremonies and introductions giving added pomp to the proceedings, and a certain buzz that only exists when any and all outcomes are possible. As the series progresses, that “special” vibe is replaced by crushing existential dread hanging on every pitch, which only grows stronger with each passing game. But prior to the first game fans are still comfortable enough to do things like (rightfully) cheer on the opposing manager.
This is awesome: Boston cheers 2004 ALCS hero Dave Roberts during lineup introductions 👏 (via @MLB)pic.twitter.com/PBsTLKSYbn
Good news for Red Sox fans: There was plenty more to cheer about over the course of Tuesday night’s 8-4 win.
It’s no secret that the Sox strength lies in the top of their lineup, which contains a Murderers’ Quartet of Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, JD Martinez, and Xander Bogaerts. Here’s how they attacked Clayton Kershaw to kick things off in the bottom of the 1st:
Betts singled to center, stole second base, and won free tacos for America.
Benintendi slipped a hit through the hole into left field (scoring Betts), and took second on the throw home.
Steve Pearce popped out.
Martinez singled to center, scoring Benintendi.
2-0 Red Sox, before the Dodgers even had a chance to breathe. Los Angeles would continue to battle back throughout the early and middle innings, but Boston never trailed in this one. The Sox have had their fair share of fast starts this postseason, and continuing to do so in this series will go a long way towards winning the whole thing. Kershaw only lasted 4+ innings and was charged 5 earned runs, thanks to Boston’s relentless attack (and Martinez and Rafael Devers continually clutch postseason).
It’s a good thing, too, because the Red Sox ace didn’t have his best stuff either. Granted, Chris Sale may have still been recovering from a mysterious stomach injury that held him out of Game 5 of the ALCS. However, it was clear he didn’t have his best stuff. The Dodgers have been excellent all year at laying off pitches out of the zone, and Tuesday was no different. Sale threw 91 pitches, but only 54 (59%) for strikes. He positively labored through the first three innings especially, and wasn’t allowed to run through the LA lineup a third time. The velocity was sort of there, and his breaking stuff looked good, but he struggled to find the plate and was punished for mistakes:
Fortunately for Sale (and the Red Sox), the bullpen continues to be the surprise of the playoffs. It was another strong showing from the Boston relievers: 5 innings, 1 run, and importantly only 1 walk. When Joe Kelly is throwing changeups like this, you know things are going your way. Seriously, look at this thing:
On a similar point, Alex Cora is on absolute fire. This guy can’t miss, and you can doubt his moves at your own peril. He let Sandy León hit. León responded with a pair of singles in the same game for the first time since 1892. He brought in Nathan Eovaldi in the 8th to bridge the gap to Craig Kimbrel. Eovaldi was lights out. He even pinch hit Eduardo Nunez for Rafael Devers in the bottom of the 7th, despite pleas from Red Sox Nation to “please god don’t even think about it” (roughly paraphrasing there).
When you’re hot, you’re hot. And right now, Cora is pushing all of the right buttons.
Even Kimbrel came on in the 9th and looked like the guy he’s been for nearly all of his career. Straight gas, straight dominance. There’s still plenty of baseball to play, but it’s tough to ask for a better start for the Sox in this series.
Key to World Series Game 2
One last thing, that I’ll be watching for tonight: How will Roberts deploy his lineup and bench against David Price? In Game 1 the Dodgers manager went all righties against Sale, will he do the same in Game 2 or roll with his best guys? Either way, it’s interesting how Cora looked like the guy who has managed in a World Series before, while Roberts’ micro-managing screamed “first year on the job”. We’ll see if that script flips.
Another night; another heart attack brought on by Red Sox closer Craig Kimbrel, but another win. This has become commonplace in close Red Sox victories this postseason, as Kimbrel has been a disaster on the mound, but has ultimately finished out each game successfully; somehow.
Kimbrel appears to be a disaster waiting to happen, so what should the Red Sox do with him moving forward?
Pitch Him In Lower Leverage Situation
I think Kimbrel needs to be taken out of the closer role, at least temporarily. He absolutely cannot be trusted right now. Even if the next game is close, I would use other pitchers in the late innings.
If there is an opportunity in the near future to pitch Kimbrel in a game that isn’t very close, the Red Sox should take it. I’m not sure if nerves are playing a factor, they likely are, but Kimbrel can barely find the strike zone.
Maybe working in a lower leverage spot Kimbrel can find the strike zone. Maybe he won’t be able to, but you can’t have a guy throwing ball after ball trying to close out games.
There have been multiple times this postseason where Kimbrel has been brought on to protect a three-run lead and hasn’t thrown strikes. In that situation, the only goal is to throw strikes; a home run can’t beat you, throw the ball over the plate and make them work for it. Kimbrel has been giving the opposition baserunners without much fight.
Kimbrel’s Struggles
Craig Kimbrel has pitched in four games this postseason and allowed the opposition to score in all four. Just let that sink in for a moment.
His ERA is standing at 8.44 after last night and he has put 13 baserunners on in only 5.1 innings pitched. 13! Kimbrel has walked five batters and hit two as he struggles to locate his pitches. On numerous occasions he has yanked his fastball, missing so far outside the catcher is left reaching as far as he can to corral it. Other times, his breaking ball is a wild pitch waiting to happen. He has been playing with fire and somehow has yet to be fully burned. It’s only a matter of time if something is not done.
In game four of the ALDS, pitching with a three run lead, Kimbrel walked two batters and hit another. He threw 28 pitches to get three outs, less than half of them going for strikes. He came about as close to blowing that game as one could without actually blowing it.
His next outing he gave up back-to-back two out hits before a fly ball from Alex Bregman nearly tied the game.
Last night was another heart attack, walking three batters and hitting another. He faced 11 batters to close out the three run lead. Kimbrel has now thrown a whopping 101 pitches in his four postseason appearances. And then there is this:
Craig Kimbrel's last clean postseason outing in a game his team was winning when he entered was 8 years ago!
Despite everyone being worried about the Red Sox bullpen entering the postseason, Kimbrel has been the problem. Others have pitched very well, excluding Brandon Workman. Workman shouldn’t pitch unless the game is a blowout, he’s the only guy that’s been worse than Kimbrel.
Ryan Brasier struggled in his first postseason appearance but did not allow a run. He seemed to have cleared his postseason jitters with that performance because he has been nails since. Brasier is up to seven scoreless innings over seven appearances.
Matt Barnes has also come up big, netting a big strike out looking to end the seventh last night. Barnes has now thrown 5.2 shutout innings over six appearances this postseason. These are currently the Sox two most trustworthy relievers, like it or not. At least for now, they should be getting the highest leverage spots.
In addition to them, others are also performing well. Heath Hembree has thrown 3.2 shutout innings, albeit not in any tight spots. Joe Kelly has stepped up his game, showing the good side of his pitching. Kelly has allowed one run over 5.1 innings without issuing a walk. The strike throwing is refreshing.
Ideally Kimbrel is the ninth inning guy; he’s been doing it a long time and it helps set up the bullpen better. But for the moment, he can not be trusted with the way he is throwing, and the Red Sox need to try someone else.
Baseball’s waiver trade deadline passed yesterday, without so much as a peep from the top team in the majors. Dave Dombrowski and the Red Sox chose to roll with the guys in the clubhouse, despite two other AL rivals (New York and Cleveland) making moves to bring in former MVPs and despite calls across their fan base to improve the bullpen.
Those desperate cries have rang out all season long. As it turns out, fans aren’t feeling too comfortable at the thought of Matt Barnes, Joe Kelly, or Heath Hembree entering the 8th inning of a Game 7. Dombrowski’s reputation of building star-studded teams without reliable relievers doesn’t help matters either.
But just how shaky is Boston’s ‘pen? Is having a group of dominant relievers really so important in October? Let’s do a bit of digging to find out.
Red Sox Bullpen: Actually Good?
Photo Credit: AP Photo / Charles Krupa
For starters, the idea that the Red Sox bullpen has struggled this season is more perception than reality. There may not be a ton of big names and former closers like there are with the Yankees and Indians. That being said- the Sox’s relievers have generally been up to the task.
Boston currently ranks 6th in the majors in reliever ERA this season (4th in the AL). The five teams ahead of them also happen to be teams currently slated for a playoff spot. The aforementioned Indians, despite trading for the Padres’ Brad Hand earlier this summer and having Cody Allen and Andrew Miller in the mix, rank 26th in the league in bullpen ERA.
The Sox also rate favorably in FIP (5th in the majors, 3rd amongst playoff teams). Their bullpen’s 4.5 fWAR ranks 7th in baseball, even though their relievers have thrown only 461 innings this season (19th most). In other words, Boston’s ‘pen has provided enough value to rank in the top 25% of teams, despite appearing in fewer innings than every team ahead of them for the exception of Houston.
Of course, that doesn’t mean they’ve been perfect. Far from it in fact. Two troubling peripherals: the Red Sox rank 18th in reliever BB/9 (3.65) and 4th in strand rate (78.4%). Giving up free passes in high-leverage situations is playing with fire, especially in October. A high strand rate means that Boston has done well at putting out those fires. But, that luck can turn in a hurry.
Bullpen Matters
CINCINNATI, OH – AUGUST 12: Joe Kelly #56 of the Boston Red Sox pitches in the third inning of the game against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on August 12, 2014 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)
All of this is to say that the Red Sox bullpen has been overall perfectly acceptable, if not dominant. The good news? Having a great regular season bullpen isn’t necessarily a predictor for postseason success, especially if you excel in other areas like Boston does.
The defending World Series champion Astros ranked 17th in baseball with a 4.27 bullpen ERA last year, yet still won 101 games. That was thanks in large part to their league-leading offense and strong starting pitching. The team they beat for the title last year, the Dodgers, ranked 4th in bullpen ERA. Both finished behind the Red Sox, whose 3.15 reliever ERA was good for 2nd best in baseball.
Here’s where the other previous six pennant winners ranked in bullpen ERA:
2016: Cubs 8th, Indians 4th
2015: Royals 2nd, Mets 11th
2014: Giants 5th, Royals 10th
Of the last eight World Series participants, four finished in the top five. Only last year’s Astros finished outside of the top half of the league. The Royals, who started this craze with their three-headed monster of Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera, and Greg Holland, finished 2nd in 2015. Their bullpen effectively functioned as the team’s greatest asset, compensating for a weak rotation and unconventional lineup. It was essentially the inverse of what the ’17 Astros lineup did for their relievers.
It’s perfectly fair to critique Dombrowski for not finding a better option at either trade deadline. It certainly would have been nice to supplement Craig Kimbrel at the end of games. Ultimately, it might not matter if the Red Sox bullpen is merely above average instead of dominant. Having a killer set of relievers helps come playoff time. However, it’s not necessarily more important than timely hitting, strong starting pitching, and major contributions from stars.
Thus far, it appears Red Sox management is betting on that being the case.
The Boston Red Sox are the best team in baseball right now. They are 10 games ahead of the second best team in baseball at the moment, and it seems like nothing can go wrong. The Red Sox lead the league in batting average, runs scored, hits, and many more. They also are second to only Houston in ERA with 3.48. However, there are a few questions for the Sox heading into the postseason. One of those questions is who is the setup guy in the 8th inning for the Red Sox before Kimbrel comes in. This article will look at three candidates to be the 8th inning guy for the Boston Red Sox.
Matt Barnes #32
The first candidate for this role is right-handed pitcher, Matt Barnes. Barnes has been with the Red Sox since 2014, and has a career ERA of 3.93. He has the lowest ERA for any qualifying reliever on the Sox with a 2.60 ERA. Barnes also leads all Red Sox relievers, other than Craig Kimbrel, in WAR with 1.7. In the first half of the season, Barnes was a solid option in the bullpen with a 2.36 ERA through 42 IP. July was the best month for him, with a 1.46 ERA while holding opposing batters to a .188 batting average. He’s also good with men in scoring position, allowing only seven hits against 58 batters.
Barnes’ August so far has not been anything too good. In five IP, Barnes has allowed three ER to get him a 5.40 ERA for the month. Overall, Barnes has been the most steady option in the bullpen other than Kimbrel, throughout the entire year.
Ryan Brasier #70
If you have never heard of Ryan Brasier, you have now. He entered the MLB in 2013 for the Angels, and since then he played in the minors for Oakland and in the Japan Central League. Before the 2018 season, the Boston Red Sox signed him to a minor-league deal, and he spent most of his time in Pawtucket. While he was in Pawtucket, Brasier had a 1.34 ERA and 22 strikeouts in 25 IP.
In July, Brasier was called up to the Red Sox, and has since appeared in 15 games for the team. In those 15 games, Brasier has a 1.13 ERA and a 0.813 WHIP in 16 IP. He can get out of tough situations. With men in scoring position, Brasier has held opposing batters to a 0.77 batting average, and two runs against 14 batters faced.
Overall, Brasier has been a great addition for the Boston Red Sox. He has shown what he can do since he has been called up, and if he stays hot, he should get the role in the 8th inning.
Joe Kelly #56
Joe Kelly has had a roller-coaster of a season for the Red Sox. It seemed like Kelly had the 8th- inning role locked down early in the season. In March/April, Kelly had a 3.09 ERA, and held batters to a .150 batting average. Things only got better as had a 0.63 ERA through 14.1 innings pitching. At the time, many people believed he was an All-Star candidate, but things changed. In June, Kelly had an 8.31 ERA, followed by a 8.38 ERA in July.
Welp.
Punches are thrown in Yankees-Red Sox after Tyler Austin gets hit by a pitch from Joe Kelly. (via @mlb) pic.twitter.com/iLREuQx6dE
Kelly has seemed to turn things around this year. So far in the month of August he has a 1.80 ERA through five IP. If the Sox can get Kelly back to his May stats, they will give him the 8th inning role.
Final Verdict:
As of August 16th, Ryan Brasier is the best guy in the bullpen other than Craig Kimbrel. He has shown in high-pressure situations he can get guys out, and has really helped the Red Sox since he arrived here.
Even though the Red Sox are by far the best team in baseball, they still have their problems. If they can get their 8th inning situation figured out, they will only get better.
