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The Red Sox Bullpen Feels Shaky. Does it Matter?

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Baseball’s waiver trade deadline passed yesterday, without so much as a peep from the top team in the majors. Dave Dombrowski and the Red Sox chose to roll with the guys in the clubhouse, despite two other AL rivals (New York and Cleveland) making moves to bring in former MVPs and despite calls across their fan base to improve the bullpen.

Those desperate cries have rang out all season long. As it turns out, fans aren’t feeling too comfortable at the thought of Matt Barnes, Joe Kelly, or Heath Hembree entering the 8th inning of a Game 7. Dombrowski’s reputation of building star-studded teams without reliable relievers doesn’t help matters either.

But just how shaky is Boston’s ‘pen? Is having a group of dominant relievers really so important in October? Let’s do a bit of digging to find out.

Red Sox Bullpen: Actually Good?

Photo Credit: AP Photo / Charles Krupa

For starters, the idea that the Red Sox bullpen has struggled this season is more perception than reality. There may not be a ton of big names and former closers like there are with the Yankees and Indians. That being said- the Sox’s relievers have generally been up to the task.

Boston currently ranks 6th in the majors in reliever ERA this season (4th in the AL). The five teams ahead of them also happen to be teams currently slated for a playoff spot. The aforementioned Indians, despite trading for the Padres’ Brad Hand earlier this summer and having Cody Allen and Andrew Miller in the mix, rank 26th in the league in bullpen ERA.

The Sox also rate favorably in FIP (5th in the majors, 3rd amongst playoff teams). Their bullpen’s 4.5 fWAR ranks 7th in baseball, even though their relievers have thrown only 461 innings this season (19th most). In other words, Boston’s ‘pen has provided enough value to rank in the top 25% of teams, despite appearing in fewer innings than every team ahead of them for the exception of Houston.

Of course, that doesn’t mean they’ve been perfect. Far from it in fact. Two troubling peripherals: the Red Sox rank 18th in reliever BB/9 (3.65) and 4th in strand rate (78.4%). Giving up free passes in high-leverage situations is playing with fire, especially in October. A high strand rate means that Boston has done well at putting out those fires. But, that luck can turn in a hurry.

Bullpen Matters

CINCINNATI, OH – AUGUST 12: Joe Kelly #56 of the Boston Red Sox pitches in the third inning of the game against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on August 12, 2014 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)

All of this is to say that the Red Sox bullpen has been overall perfectly acceptable, if not dominant. The good news? Having a great regular season bullpen isn’t necessarily a predictor for postseason success, especially if you excel in other areas like Boston does.

The defending World Series champion Astros ranked 17th in baseball with a 4.27 bullpen ERA last year, yet still won 101 games. That was thanks in large part to their league-leading offense and strong starting pitching. The team they beat for the title last year, the Dodgers, ranked 4th in bullpen ERA. Both finished behind the Red Sox, whose 3.15 reliever ERA was good for 2nd best in baseball.

Here’s where the other previous six pennant winners ranked in bullpen ERA:

2016: Cubs 8th, Indians 4th

2015: Royals 2nd, Mets 11th

2014: Giants 5th, Royals 10th

Of the last eight World Series participants, four finished in the top five. Only last year’s Astros finished outside of the top half of the league. The Royals, who started this craze with their three-headed monster of Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera, and Greg Holland, finished 2nd in 2015. Their bullpen effectively functioned as the team’s greatest asset, compensating for a weak rotation and unconventional lineup. It was essentially the inverse of what the ’17 Astros lineup did for their relievers.

It’s perfectly fair to critique Dombrowski for not finding a better option at either trade deadline. It certainly would have been nice to supplement Craig Kimbrel at the end of games. Ultimately, it might not matter if the Red Sox bullpen is merely above average instead of dominant. Having a killer set of relievers helps come playoff time. However, it’s not necessarily more important than timely hitting, strong starting pitching, and major contributions from stars.

Thus far, it appears Red Sox management is betting on that being the case.

Red Sox Predicted Playoff Roster

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With the MLB Playoff races still heating up, the Red Sox are guaranteed a spot in the hunt for October.  Who will be on the playoff roster?

While there are 40 games still to be played, the hunt for October glory has already crossed the minds of fans nationwide.  The postseason roster will look very similar to the active roster, but there will be some shake ups in my predictions.

Starting rotation:

1. Chris Sale: The Cy Young award candidate will be the ace of this team in the playoffs. While he has had more rest under new manager Alec Cora, fans hope to see a different Chris Sale than this time last season.

2. Rick Porcello: Probably one of the most underrated players on this team, the former Cy Young award winner has had a phenomenal year. He has had an excellent command of his sinker, and forced more groundball outs than last year.

3. David Price: Although Price has had zero success as a starter in the playoffs throughout his career, this year seems different. Price has been more efficient, and a overall better pitcher than in recent memory.

4.   Nathan Eovaldi: Although he has never been a prime time starting pitcher, he has proven to the Red Sox organization that he is ready to take on a big role throughout the duration of the playoffs. If he can even pitch as well as he has in his first 2 starts, don’t sleep on him.

Bullpen:

Although the bullpen has been under performing lately, they still have more depth than a lot of teams in the league.

Matt Barnes, Heath Hembree, Tyler Thornburg, Ryan Brasier, Joe Kelly, Hector Velasquez, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Craig Kimbrel ( closer).  

These guys have solidified their roles in the bullpen. It would be hard to imagine the team calling up someone from the minors to fill in, besides an injury or two, towards the end of the regular season.

Infield:

(Catchers) Christian Vasquez, Sandy Leon. ( First Base) Mitch Moreland, Steve Pearce. (Second base) Ian Kinsler, Brock Holt, Eduardo Nunez, Blake Swihart. ( Third Base) Rafael Devers, ( same utility guys from second and shortstop.) ( Shortstop) Xander Bogaerts. 

Designated Hitter:

J.d Martinez, ( Pearce and Moreland as rotates) 

Outfield:

Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley Jr, ( Martinez.) 

As previously stated, my prediction looks similar to the current roster (besides a couple of minor tweaks.) What are your thoughts? Comment or simply tweet me @kyle_porch. Follow me and bostonsportsextra to stay in the news with the most up-to-date coverage.

Do the Red Sox Have a Balance Problem?

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There’s no denying that the Red Sox possess one of the most potent offenses in Major League Baseball. That’s what you get when you put together a lineup anchored by MVP favorite Mookie Betts and destroyer-of-right-field-bleacher-creatures J.D. Martinez. As of Saturday morning, the Sox rank:

  • 2nd in the Majors in runs
  • 2nd in HR
  • 3rd in SB
  • 2nd in ISO
  • 2nd in batting average
  • 4th in OBP
  • 2nd in slugging (and 2nd in OPS)
  • 3rd in wRC+

I could go on, but you get the picture. Boston’s ability to score repeatedly is one of the main reasons why they have the most wins in baseball and the second-best run differential. Yet, while the overall performance of the lineup on a night-to-night basis has been a strength, there are a few red flags regarding the sustainability of its production. Most immediately pressing? A void between the “good” and the “bad” so wide and deep that Michael Cera or Aziz Ansari might crawl out of it at any moment.

Highs and Lows

Here’s the Red Sox most-used lineup this season, substituting Mitch Moreland for the recently deposed Hanley Ramirez (wRC+ and plate appearances in parentheses):

  1. Betts (204 in 232 PA)
  2. Andrew Benintendi (149 in 300 PA)
  3. Moreland (137 in 197 PA)
  4. Martinez (177 in 286 PA)
  5. Xander Bogaerts (130 in 237 PA)
  6. Rafael Devers (83 in 281 PA)
  7. Eduardo Nunez (66 in 254 PA)
  8. Jackie Bradley Jr. (57 in 229 PA)
  9. Christian Vazquez (47 in 177 PA)

As for other players with more than 50 PA this year, only Brock Holt (120 in 133 PA) has a wRC+ over 100. The next highest non-regular still with the team? Sandy Leon, whose 58 wRC+ is somehow still 45 points better than poor Blake Swihart‘s 13(!?!?!?!?!?!?) in 70 plate appearances. A full explanation on wRC+ can be found here for the uninitiated, but it is useful because it serves as an all-encompassing stat that takes into account criteria like era, park factors, and total offensive performance. League average for any given season is an even 100. The best season per this metric: 2001 Barry Bonds (an astonishing 244 wRC+, or 144% better than league average). The worst (min 300 PA)? 1909 Bill Bergen (an equally astonishing 5 wRC+, or 95% worse than league average).

Worth Worrying About?

All of this is to say that the Red Sox could do with taking a page out of Thanos’ book. While Betts’ transcendent season has lifted the lineup from the jump, the gap between the haves and have-nots is alarming enough to start an Occupy Jersey Street movement at any moment. It’s great that Benintendi has slashed .340/.421/.673 since May 5th, and that Martinez is so comfortable in this lineup he’s moved on to fixing other guys’ swings. However, when almost than half of the everyday starters are producing at well below league average, it tempers expectations a bit. Can the bottom part of the order really be relied on come October? Is Holt really going to be the biggest PH threat off the bench all season? Will Dustin Pedroia ever come back, and if (when) Martinez makes his annual trip to the DL, who will step up?

The Sox don’t have those answers yet. As they make their way towards the dog days of summer, it might not even matter. But last night’s game in Seattle highlighted just how frustrating a lopsided lineup can be. Boston touched up AL Cy Young Award contender James Paxton for 6 runs (5 earned) in the 3rd inning. It was the only frame in which they scored, and the Mariners were able to stage a late inning rally against Heath Hembree and Matt Barnes as a result. With 6 weeks left until the July 31st trade deadline, you have to think Dave Dombrowski will take a hard look at balancing out this roster. After all, this team isn’t supposed to be satisfied with beating good teams in June. It’s meant to beat great teams in the fall.

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Recap

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In the final leg of the road trip, the Red Sox head north to face the Blue Jays for a three game series before heading back to Fenway. Cora made the announcement that Dustin Pedroia and Tyler Thornburg will be playing on Monday and Tuesday for rehab assignment in Pawtucket. David Price is also back with the team after missing a game to get x-rays on his hand in Boston. Chris Sale, Davis Price, and Drew Pomeranz will be the starting pitchers in this series.

Sale vs Sanchez – Toronto Takes the Win

Chris Sale pitches his best game of the season. Fifteen strikeouts in nine innings. Xander Bogaerts hit a homer towards center field to bring the score 2-1 Sox leading in the second. The Sox ultimately fell to the Blue Jays 5-3 in 12 innings. Sandy Leon struck out swinging, but the ball bounced back, allowing Brock Holt to score coming from first base. Chris Sale struck out 15 of the Blue Jays and let up zero walks. He joins Pedro Martinez and Roger Clemens as only the third pitcher in Sox history to do so. Jackie Bradley Jr. sat out for his third straight game to hopefully get him out of his slump. He is expected to be in the lineup the next day.

“That was impressive,” Alex Cora said. “That slider was the best of the season. He was outstanding. ”

“You’ve got to tip your cap, he had himself a heck of a night. “

Price vs Estrada – A Comeback win after Injury

David Price made his first appearance since the x-rays we’re taken on his hand to discover that he had Carpal Tunnel. The Sox took the lead 5-2 for the game win. In 93 pitches, Price let up: five hits and three walks. He struck out six Blue Jays. Hanley Ramirez hit a two run homer, after Andrew Benintendi hit a double to bring in Rafael Devers and Mookie Betts. Ramirez had himself quite a game, racking up three home runs and seven RBIs in the last four games. The Sox scored at least five runs for the 24th time this season, which is the most in the MLB. Both Hector Velazquez and Joe Kelly pitched scoreless innings before Kimbrel entered the game. Craig Kimbrel came out to get his 11th save of the season.

“I saw something different in the way he pitched today. Everything. There was a difference in speeds. Mixing up the breaking ball is very important. He induced some weak contact. They hit a few balls hard too. But I think he pitched great ” – Cora on Price’s performance

“It was good to get back out there,” Price said. “The more I threw, the better I felt. To me, that’s always a good sign.”

Pomeranz vs Biagini – Sox Return Home with a win in Toronto

All players in the MLB wore pink in honor of Mother’s Day on Sunday. Hanley Ramirez, although he wasn’t in the lineup, had on catchers gear and was ready to play. A loose Hanley leads to a fun and much looser Red Sox lineup. Drew Pomeranz let up three runs and four hits, while only making it under six innings. Toronto was up 5-3 in the fifth as Hector Velazquez came in to replace Drew Pomeranz. J. D. Martinez homered and had three RBI’s, while Mookie Betts made the unbelievable “deal catch” to prove that he really is a Gold Glove player. Joe Kelly racked up his second save of the season Sunday afternoon.

“He’s becoming a force, not only the field but in the clubhouse, in the dugout,” manager Alex Cora said. “He’s becoming a leader. It’s fun to watch. On a daily basis you’re expecting something great and he’ll do it.”

“To come out of a road trip like that is definitely something to be proud of,” said reliever Joe Kelly.

Up Next

The Red Sox will be back home at Fenway to face the Oakland Athletics Monday through Wednesday. Then the Orioles will come to town for a four game series. Dustin Pedroia will start his rehab assignment on Monday in Pawtucket with Tyler Thornburg. Pedroia hopes to return during the end of May.

Sources

Red Sox Twitter

MLB

ESPN

Statcast

NESN

Red Sox Take Series Against Toronto

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Tuesday- Porcello vs. Happ

Porcello took the mound for his fifth start against Toronto’s J. A. Happ. Unfortunately, today’s game didn’t end in the Sox’ favor. Rick Porcello pitched another great game ending with a 1.93 ERA. Hanley Ramirez and Rafael Devers both hit singles to get on base. This allowed Eduardo Nuñez to hit and RBI single into left field. With bases loaded, Brock Holt hit to left field, which forced the game into extra innings. The Toronto Blue Jays eventually took the win as Craig Kimbrel let up his first run in the 2018 season.

Wednesday- Rodriguez vs. Sanchez

It was another night of the Mookie Show for the Sox. The Toronto Blue Jays lost 4-3 against the Red Sox Wednesday night. Hitting two homers, one in his first at bat of the game, Mookie smashed the losing streak. In an interview later that night, Alex Cora compared them to the likes of Altuve and Trout. Brock Holt had three hits, to raise his batting average to .327. Eduardo Rodriguez pitched nearly seven innings and only let up six hits. He extended the Red Sox lead to 18-5. It also happened that the Bruins were playing the same day, and there is a large support system coming from the Sox. Both teams are seen often cheering for the others. Tomorrow is Sale day and with the losing streak gone can he add a win under his belt.

“Two good swings. The one to the opposite side of the field, that was great.” – Alex Cora on Mookie Betts

“Good win for us. Good win for the Bruins. Everybody is pulling for them over here. Mookie did his thing… again” -Hanley Ramirez on the win

Thursday – Sale vs. Estrada

J.D. hit the ball to right center to allow three runs with only two outs in the fifth inning. Chris Sale let up a run in the first inning causing Toronto to give Sanchez the run support Sale wanted. With Joe Kelly serving his suspension, Matt Barnes was brought in. With the Sox only leading Toronto by one run in the seventh inning, Barnes struck out Maile, avoiding a run to tie the game. I’m the eighth inning, Toronto was ready to rally and the Sox had to make a great play. Brock Holt had to throw the ball to Moreland at first, to get Grichuk out. Toronto challenged the call, but luckily there was not enough evidence in their favor. Tomorrow Xander Bogaerts with return from the disabled list and Drew Pomeranz will pitch at Fenway for the first time this season.

You know, even when he’s struggling, you think he’s one adjustment away to do damage.” -Alex Cora on J. D. Martinez

“That’s the kind of guy he is. He does some pretty incredible things with that bat, and I’m appreciative of it tonight. ” – Chris Sale on J. D.

Sources

Red Sox Twitter

NESN

Red Sox Postseason Numbers Crunch in Bullpen

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The Red Sox face a roster crunch for the postseason. Many bullpen arms have stepped up down the stretch and pitching well in critical spots. Of course, not a bad problem to have. It does however beg the question, which ones will make the postseason team?

Bullpen Arms

Craig Kimbrel is obviously on the team as the closer. That’s the number-one bullpen spot. Addison Reed will no doubt set him up. Despite a couple hiccups with the Red Sox, Reed has pitched well since coming over. With reports that David Price will pitch out of the pen in the playoffs, that’s three automatic spots occupied. Price is intriguing out there. It’s been a long time since he shut the Red Sox down in the ALCS in his rookie season coming out of the pen. However, he doesn’t have to worry about lasting and can just rear back and throw. He could be an effective left-handed option for them in crucial spots. Price would also be available for multiple innings at times in big spots if innings are needed. As for the other options…

Matt Barnes has been with the team all year, leading with 66 appearances. He can be hit or miss though, and his 3.88 ERA is high compared to the teams other relievers. Is there a chance one of their most used relief pitchers over the last two seasons off the postseason roster? He does strike out a lot of players —  75 batters in 65 innings. He’s not very trustworthy though.

Heath Hembree has pitched for the Sox a lot this season, appearing in 60 contests as of this writing. Hembree has a decent 3.58 ERA, but his 1.46 WHIP is the worst of anyone with more than 20 appearances. He puts a lot of men on base, which would be awfully nerve-wracking in the playoffs. Hembree, like Barnes, strikes out more than a batter per inning.

Joe Kelly has to be on the roster. With his 2.68 ERA and .207 opponent average, I trust Kelly much more than I trust either Barnes or Hembree. His 100 mph heat can be overpowering and elicits a lot of weak contact.

Brandon Workman has been outstanding for the Sox since coming back from injury. He has worked 37.1 innings to a 2.41 ERA. He can work multiple innings if needed, and do so effectively, a key weapon to have in the postseason.

Carson Smith shows us all what we have been waiting for. Somehow fleecing the Mariners in acquiring Smith (and Elias) for Wade Miley, Smith hadn’t pitched in almost two seasons for the Sox until this month. In 2015 he struck out nearly 12 batters per nine innings and had a 2.31 ERA. This kid has an electric arm. Since returning, Smith has struck out five batters over 4.1 shutout innings. I’d want him on the roster.

Austin Maddox has come out of nowhere to throw his hat in the mix. A guy hardly anyone knew anything about not long ago, Maddox is a 26-year-old career minor leaguer. His career ERA in the minors is 4.27. He’s pitched better the further into his professional career he has gone, posting a sub 4.00 ERA each of the past three seasons. This year his ERA was below 3.00 combined between Portland and Pawtucket. Since joining the big club, Maddox has thrown 12.1 shutout innings! Very shocking. He has allowed only 10 base runners and struck out 10 batters.

For left handers, I have to think at least one other than Price will make it. We have two options. Robby Scott pitched great in a few appearances late last season. This year he has been a little up and down, but when you only face a couple batters a game at most, your ERA fluctuate wildly. Batters hit only .186 off of him and he has a 1.03 WHIP. Beyond that, lefties bat an anemic .131 versus Robby. His should only face a lefty in a big spot.  Why wouldn’t you want someone that dominant versus them?

The other option is Fernando Abad.   John Farrell can’t seem to get past the fact he stunk last year. Abad is 2-0 with a 2.98 ERA this season however, showing why Dombrowski acquired him to begin with. Abad has a much better ERA than Scott, but his peripherals aren’t as good, allowing more hits and putting more men on base. Also, he isn’t as effective at getting lefties out, which is what the Sox will need from their left hander in the pen.

If I were to pick, I would say Kimbrel, Reed, Price, Kelly, Workman, Smith and Scott. Could even choose to keep eight, with four starters instead of five it opens another roster spot. The 4th rotation spot seems to be up for grabs, but whoever loses out in that battle won’t make the playoff roster as a reliever.

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