Tag Archives: MLB

The David Price-Boston Story

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David Price is definitely an interesting character when talking about his career. He has been dominant for so long, but his relationship with the media and the postseason have always been sour.

A lot of people question whether or not he should be considered a top-tier pitcher because of these problems. He has always put naysayers to rest they had the most to say in Detroit, Toronto, and Tampa. However, Boston is just a different animal between the media and the passion of the fans.

A New Start in Boston

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After the 2015 season, new Red Sox GM Dave Dombrowski, who was familiar with Price in Detroit, signed the prized lefty to a massive 7 year, $217 million contract. This was the biggest contract for a pitcher in MLB History. Red Sox fans could not wait to see Price in their uniform after he single-handedly dominated them out of the bullpen in the 2008 ALCS.

2016 was a very good and underrated year for Price in Boston. From Opening Day, Price was consistent and at times dominated for the Red Sox. He finished with a 17-9 record, with a 3.99 ERA. Not great numbers for a pitcher of his caliber. However, he ate up a lot of innings and was arguably the most important pitcher of the staff.

Price was not so good in the playoffs. He got knocked around all around the park against the Cleveland Indians in Game 2 of the 2016 ALDS, and his postseason problems continued to haunt him.

2017 Woes

If people thought it couldn’t get any worse for Price after the end of 2016, they were very, very wrong. Before spring training it was announced that Price had issues in the elbow tendon of this throwing arm. There were so many rumors going around on whether or not he would pitch in 2017, or even 2018 for that matter.

After meeting with Dr. James Andrews, it was determined that Price would not need the dreaded Tommy John surgery. This was a huge bullet Price and the Red Sox were dodging, but nobody really knew what he could contribute to the club in 2017.

David Price made his return to the Red Sox pitching staff, just not as a member of the starting rotation. He made his debut out of the pen against the White Sox on May 29th. He had a solid return, getting in 5 IP with 3 ER. Better than the no inning and no runs that were expected when the elbow news broke surface.

Price eventually made his return to the rotation, and actually had a few very solid games. One notable game was against the Yankees, where JBJ made one of the best catches in Fenway Park history, robbing Aaron Judge of a homerun. He went 8 IP, only giving up one run to split a crucial doubleheader. I remember watching this game on vacation and thinking to myself “He’s back.”

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2017 Postseason Campaign

The 2017 playoff push was one of the most stressful times that I’ve experienced as a Red Sox fan. I remember waking up every morning checking my phone to see if the Yankees had won their game or not and constantly checking the standings. Even when the Red Sox were ahead by three or four games, it felt like we were back five.

On Saturday, September 30th, the Red Sox were on their way to a second straight division title. Late in the game, seventh inning, things starting to get a little shaky.

David Price comes trotting into the game, the Fenway faithful behind him. Before you know it, he’s facing George Springer with two outs, and K’s him up on one of the nastiest pitches I’ve seen in a long time: unhittable fastball from Price. Consequently Fenway roared as Price let out a monstrous yell.

I remember watching the moment with my friends and thinking, “Holy shit, this David Price bullpen thing is for real.” David Price was slowly starting to win me back, and starting to win back the fans.

The ALDS

Game 2 against the 2017 ALDS against the Astros was one to forget, just like Game 1. Ugly. But that is not the point. The highlight of the game was Price coming in out of the pen, and just absolutely mowing down the Houston hitters. Price threw 2 1/3 innings of scoreless ball against a Houston lineup that murdered Drew Pomeranz and Chris Sale in that series. Price was once again excellent, and it was becoming apparent that the old David Price was coming back.

Game 3 of the ALDS was in my opinion Price’s defining moment of his Red Sox tenure. October 8th, 2017 at Fenway Park was one of the craziest days of my life, thanks in big part to DP24. In a do or die game, I was lucky enough to be sitting in the front row out on the bleachers, where tensions were running high. There was a feeling in the atmosphere that something big was going to happen, and that someone was going to step up to save 2017 Red Sox baseball.

The Astros jumped out to an early 3-0 lead, and the ballpark was silent. Everyone was pissed. But Boston battled back, and was able to take a 4-3 lead into the fourth inning when Price came in.

Pure dominance to say the least. Price threw four scoreless innings and allowed the Boston bats to explode. Price was so amped on the mound it felt like Houston had absolutely no chance to score any runs.

Even though Houston ended up winning the series, the ALDS was a big time coming out party for Price. He once again showed why he is one of the game’s big time pitchers.

What Does 2018 Have in Store?

2018 is the most crucial year for David Price in a Red Sox uniform. Now healthy, he needs to prove for a full season that he is a Cy Young caliber pitcher and he is worth the contract that he is under.

I cannot wait to see the next chapter that DP writes in his Red Sox story.

Don’t Forget Hanley Ramirez

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J.D. Martinez is finally a Boston Red Sox and it’s all anyone can talk about. It’s an earned celebration; the Red Sox needed a power hitter and Martinez is a true star with the bat. While he will certainly help the 2018 Red Sox get some power, don’t forget Hanley Ramirez and the impact he can have.

Ramirez arrived two days early to spring training, fully healthy and down 15 pounds. He credited Patriots quarterback Tom Brady’s “TB12 Method” for his change in offseason workouts, and this news should make all Red Sox fans ecstatic.

Don’t Forget Hanley Ramirez

Hanley’s tenure in Boston has been a mixed bag, to say the least. He was terrible in his first season with the Red Sox, before transforming into one of the better power bats on the team in 2016. 2017 was a down year for him due to a nagging shoulder injury that sapped away his swing.

Overall, there have been two down years and one great year in Hanley’s three seasons with the Red Sox. However, so far there’s always been one consistent theme in determining the success of Hanley’s season. When he comes into spring training too muscular, he has a bad year.

2015 – The Muscular Hanley

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2015 showed that success in the weight room doesn’t necessarily translate to the field

Image credit: WEEI

Hanley came over to the Red Sox on a massive four-year, 88 million dollar deal, and immediately wanted to show his worth. The big acquisition spent all offseason lifting, and came into camp looking unnaturally ripped. Simple logic would dictate that big muscles equals big power, but that’s not always the case.

So much of what goes into being a power hitter comes from the form of your swing instead of the muscles on your body. Hanley spent so much time adding muscle onto his already jacked body that he lost his form. Hanley had a long, looping swing all season that clearly threw off his timing and never let him hit the ball clean. Sure, when he made contact the ball went far, but he was rarely making solid contact. Hanley finished that season with just 19 home runs, 10 of which came in April, and was considered one of the biggest free agent busts in Red Sox history.

2016 – Slimmed down Hanley

Hanley entered 2016 spring training with a different philosophy. Instead of getting as jacked as possible, swinging for the fences and assuming home runs would follow, he got smarter at the plate. He spent more time in the offseason working on having a compact swing, making solid contact, and knowing that he’d knock a few out regardless.

While this strategy led to his size being smaller, his numbers got bigger. Hanley’s swing, when it’s right, is so good that he’ll get his power number regardless of what he’s bench pressing. Hanley worked on getting his swing right, and the work paid dividends.

Hanley finished his 2016 season hitting .286 with 30 home runs and 111 runs batted in. This was the Hanley the Red Sox thought they were getting when they first signed him, and his production was a big part in the 2016 Red Sox having one of the best offenses in all of baseball.

2017 – Muscular Hanley Again

Coming into 2017, Hanley tried to add more muscle again. Maybe he thought the results would be better now that he had controlled his swing the year earlier. Maybe he knew that his bat would become more important than ever with David Ortiz out of the lineup.

Regardless of why he did it, the plan didn’t work out. It’s hard to discern how much of Hanley’s poor season was due to his year-long shoulder injury, but the obsessive lifting probably didn’t help anything. Ramirez looked slow and uncomfortable with the bat all season, and his looping swing returned from 2015. He still managed to hit 23 home runs, but his RBI’s dropped to just 62 and his batting average fell to .242.

2018 – Pliable Hanley

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Let’s see if pliability can help another Boston athlete in 2018

Image credit: Getty Images

Building muscle is great if you need to add power to your game, but Hanley doesn’t. His swing along gives him enough natural power to fill a hole in the middle part of the lineup. Hanley’s best course of off-season action is to get his body ready to handle the grind of a 162-game season.

By the looks of things, that’s just what he’s done. Hanley hasn’t been lifting as much this off-season, as evidenced by his 15-pound weight loss. In its place, Hanley has focused on resistance band training to improve his pliability and to keep his muscles loose.

This strategy has allowed Patriots quarterback Tom Brady to continue to thrive at age 40. While a 162-game season bring different challenges than a 16-game football season, it’s hard to imagine a designated hitter taking the same beating as an NFL quarterback.

2016 has shown that Hanley doesn’t need to be freakishly musclebound in order to hit for power. He’s a strong guy regardless, and when he keeps his swing compact it’s one of the better swings in the game. In both 2015 and 2017, he spent his off-season trying to build up muscles. Both seasons ended with poor production and shoulder issues. So far, Hanley’s 2018 is mirroring 2016, and that’s a great sign for what might follow this season.

 

Cover image courtesy of USA Today.

Hanley Ramirez Is Using the TB12 Method

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Red Sox Getting into the TB12 Method

Via WBEN TV

Hanley Ramirez is finding ways to stay in good shape. Ramirez is apparently taking a page out of the TB12 method to better himself. We’ve seen other teammates on the Patriots use Brady’s program, but now it has shifted to the Red Sox players.

Ramirez Spoke About the Workout Plan

Via Weei.com

Hanley spoke to the media last week about Brady’s workout plan, saying, “I went on the Tom Brady side I think it’s 100 percent everything he says in the book, the work he does, makes sense.” Hanley had offseason shoulder surgery and really talked in length Friday about Brady’s workout. “I started doing that last year at the end of the season a little bit — with the bands I Think I was feeling a little better. I was waiting for the offseason to start 100 percent.”

Hanley Is Coming off an Injury

Via TB12 Sports

With his injured shoulder during the season last year Hanley only hit 23 home runs and 62 RBI’s. Hanley thought he was hitting with one arm last season and said Friday that he should’ve hit 30 home runs instead. Alex Cora talked in length about Ramirez, saying, “He looks a lot different than what I saw the last two years. The last two years he reminded me a lot about (former NFL linebacker) Ray Lewis — with how big he was.”

With Hanley feeling better and looking forward to playing in 168 games this season at first base. Ramirez trying to better himself with the help of a 40 year old quarterback is great. Ramirez has not met with Alex Guerrero, he only read the book he said. Hanley was signed to a four year $88 million dollar contact in 2015. I’m sure with a new manager and him feeling good he should be fine.

We’ll see if other players follow Brady’s workout plan. Who knows we may see players from other sports besides football and baseball try the TB 12 method out.

The Top Third Basemen in MLB Long-Term

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There is a lot of talent at the hot corner. In fact, Mike Moustakas hit 38 home runs last season and isn’t even on a team as of this writing. He hit more home runs than any other third baseman last season. Yet, it’s debatable whether or not he is a top 10 third baseman moving forward. Weighing offense, defense, base running and age, these are my top 10 for the long haul.

1. Nolan Arenado

Arenado has arguably been a top five player in all of baseball three years running. Arenado led the league in both home runs and runs batted in during the 2015 and 2016 seasons. Last season he led the league in doubles while hitting a career high .309. During that three year stretch, his average season has been .297 with 40 home runs, 40 doubles, 131 RBI and a .353/.577/.930 slash line. He might be the best current player to have not won an MVP Award.

Arenado does benefit by playing half his games at high altitude, but he’d be a superstar regardless. Most players hit better at home regardless, so whereas he does receive added benefit at Coors, you can’t completely write off his elevated numbers at home. Arenado has still hit 56 homers on the road over the past three seasons, compared to his 64 at Coors. That is not much of a difference. The biggest gap is at batting average, where comfortability in a home park plays a big role. It will be interesting to watch what happens if he leaves Colorado in a couple of years, but I don’t think the drop off will be steep.

What secures Arenado in the top spot for me is his excellent defense in addition to the hitting. Arenado has won the Gold Glove all five seasons he has played in. His dWAR has been 1.9 or better in each season and he has averaged over 20 defensive runs saved per season. Among third basemen, he has led the league in range factor per game in every season.

2. Kris Bryant

Bryant just might be the most dangerous amongst all third basemen with a bat in his hands. He won Rookie of the Year and the MVP in his first two seasons. The belief is that he dropped off a bit from his MVP season last year, but that’s not as true as one might think. His home runs fell off from 39 to 29, and his runs batted in fell way off. However, if you look more closely, his other stats are very similar. His batting average was nearly identical, and he got on base at a much higher clip. His slugging percentage, even with the dip in home runs, was not much lower. This led to Bryant actually improving his .939 OPS in 2016 to .946 last year.

Bryant is always going to hit a lot of home runs. One big key for him is his declining strike out rate. Bryant is dangerous when he gets wood on the ball, so the fact he has struck out less in each season is huge. Bryant led the league with 199 strike outs his rookie season. He cut 45 strike outs off that total in his MVP season, and lowered it all the way down to 128 last year. Hand-in-hand with that, he struck out in less than 20% of his at-bats last season, down from 30.6% in his rookie season. He also walked a career high 95 times last year. With his ability to put the ball in play more often, I would be surprised if Bryant didn’t bounce back to 35 home runs this season.

Kris Bryant of the Chicago Cubs hits against the Baltimore Orioles in the first inning during a game on July 16, 2017 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick McDermott)

3. Jose Ramirez

Jose Ramirez’ star has skyrocketed the last two seasons. A lightly heralded young utility player heading into 2016, Ramirez batted .312 and hit 46 doubles that year. Last year he launched his game into a new stratosphere, hitting 29 homers and leading the league with 56 doubles. His .957 OPS was .002 behind Nolan Arenado for the highest among all third basemen. Ramirez was a legitimate MVP candidate, finishing in third place for the award.

Ramirez has a reliable glove, generally fielding what he gets to. He doesn’t have the range of some others, leaving him with mediocre advanced statistics for the position. With how good he is offensively though, he is among the best. He has a .315 batting average and .892 OPS over the past two seasons. Remarkably, he has hit over 100 doubles in just two seasons. He can run a little too, stealing 39 bases the last two seasons.

4. Josh Donaldson

At 32, Donaldson is a lot older than the guys above him. However, he is not so old that he should be dropped far down the list. He should still have several years of excellent play left in him. To this point, he has an MVP Award and two other top five finishes. He has homered over 30 times all three seasons with the Blue Jays, and his .939 OPS during his MVP season is actually the lowest of his three years in Toronto. He has an average of 37 home runs during that span and a .946 OPS.

Donaldson goes all out in the field, routinely dirtying up his jersey. He is the type of player you appreciate as a fan; a star who also gives it his all. His defense has slipped a bit the past two seasons, but he has still been above average at the position and has historically been a very good fielder.

5. Alex Bregman

Bregman was the second overall pick in 2015 and was in the majors the following year. Turning 24 around the start of the season, there is plenty of room for growth. In his first full season, Bregman struck out in 15.5% of his at-bats, an excellent mark in this day and age. He batted .284 with 19 home runs and 39 doubles. With continued improvement, I see him becoming a .300 hitter with 25 home run power. He puts the ball in play, and the hard hit contact should continue to improve with age and experience. He even stole 17 bags last year.

Bregman is average in the field, posting a 0.5 dWAR over his first two seasons. However, he was only 23 last season. Bregman also had to learn the position in the pros, as he played mostly shortstop in the minors. As someone who had the ability to play short, I would not be surprised by some defensive improvement at third as he gains more experience there.

6. Rafael Devers

Devers is practically a baby still, playing last season at the age of 20; and all he did was hit. Appearing in the top 20 of most prospect rankings two consecutive years, Devers has always been followed by a lot of hype. He batted over .300 with a .955 OPS between two minor league stops last season. When he reached Boston, he did not stop. Devers hit 10 home runs, giving him a total of 30 for the season. His approach wasn’t all or nothing either, as Devers hit for a .284 batting average. He struck out a fair amount, but the rate was not so high as to get worried. His strike out rate in the minor leagues was always in the teens too, so I would expect his rate to come down. He also has a good hitting approach, routinely using the whole field.

Devers fielding was rocky last season, but give the kid a break; he wasn’t even old enough to drink. His fundamentals at the position are sound, he just needs to keep his focus better and gain more experience. Still just 21 this coming season, I wouldn’t even be worried yet if his defense was still sub par this year. Ultimately, I believe he will develop into at least an adequate third baseman defensively.

7. Anthony Rendon

This spot for Rendon might be a little unpopular, but he’s been around five years now and just had a real breakout last season at the age of 27. I do believe he is an excellent player, but he has been fragile dating back to his college days. Before last season, he’d only had one season as good as what Bregman did last year, or even what Devers did over a partial season. I just trust Bregman more to be consistently good year to year, and I think Devers upside is much higher. If Rendon can stay healthy though, he should be a good player for a while to come.

Over his first four seasons, Rendon batted .274 with just 13 home runs per season. Accounting for injury, that number jumps to 18 home runs per 162 games. Still, not overly impressive. He has hit 20 or more home runs in all three of his healthy seasons though, albeit barely. His .777 OPS over his first four seasons jumped all the way up to .937 last season. Some of it might have to do with the lively ball, but a lot of it probably has to do with him peaking at 27 years old and being healthy for a second consecutive season. He seems like someone who could settle in as a .300 hitter with 20 home runs per year.

8. Miguel Sano

If the allegations against Sano don’t pull him off the field, he should be one of the top home run hitters at the position for years. That is, if he remains at the position. Sano has bounced between third and right field some and hasn’t been impressive at either position. He has a .941 career fielding percentage at third and a negative dWAR. Unsurprisingly, he also grades out negatively in defensive runs saved. At 6’4″ 260, Sano looks like a long-term DH. However, he is at third base for now, so on this list he shall fall.

With his huge body, Sano has immense raw power. His contact rate holds him back some, as he has struck out over 170 times in consecutive years. He has struck out in nearly 36% of his Major League at-bats. That number has to come down for him to ever reach his full potential. He hits the ball hard though when he does hit it, and that hard contact rate will lead to high batting averages on balls in play. His BABIP last season was .375, and it was as high as .396 in his rookie season. If Sano can stay on the field, he could be a threat for 40 home runs. Currently, he is averaging 37 home runs per 162 games played.

9. Justin Turner

Turner isn’t higher on this list because he is 33 years old now. The guys above him should have many more years of production in them. Turner is an excellent hitter though, putting the ball in play often and causing damage when he does. His strike out rate was best amongst all third basemen last season. A year after hitting a career high 27 home runs, Turner batted .322 with 21 homers and a .945 OPS last year.

A mechanical change at the plate and hitting the ball in the air more often have not sacrificed Turner’s contact rate. Once a utility player, Turner broke out in that role in 2014, his first season with the Dodgers. Since gaining an expanded role, Turner has batted .295 and averaged 21 home runs per season over the last three. He should still be an excellent hitter for a few more years, and that to me warrants a spot in the top ten.

Los Angeles Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner follows through on a swing for a solo home run against the New York Mets during the third inning at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

10. Kyle Seager

Kyle Seager is as steady as they come. He doesn’t wow at the plate, but he puts up roughly the same numbers year in and year out. Seager has homered at least 25 times in four straight seasons, and 20 or more in six straight. His average bottomed out a bit at .249 last season, but he had batted between .260 and .278 in each of the four previous seasons. In all, he has batted .264 and averaged 25 home runs per season since becoming a regular in 2012. At 30 years old, it doesn’t look like he’s going to change much. He is who he is, and that’s a very solid third baseman.

Seager is just as good in the field, winning a Gold Glove in 2014. He has averaged more than 1.0 dWAR over the past four seasons His range factor has also been consistently above the league average every season. Seager should be a steady contributor at the hot corner for a while still to come.

Honorable Mentions:

Mike Moustakas, Jake Lamb, Travis Shaw, Adrian Beltre, Eugenio Suarez

 

Featured picture from Mile High Sports.

The Top Shortstops Long-Term

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The shortstop position has become increasingly talented in recent seasons. The position is now the best, and deepest, arguably since Nomar, A-Rod, and Jeter were reigning supreme nearly two decades ago. The top five is loaded, and the position has great depth. The shortstops near the bottom of my top ten list would have threatened the top five a few years ago. Shortstops not making the list would have been safely included. With all this competition, it was hard to leave a few guys off.

1. Carlos Correa

Correa is coming off a season with an OPS 65 points higher than Manny Machado has ever posted. With all of Machado’s fanfare and his big home run seasons, this was a surprising revelation. Just 22 years old last season and having posted a .941 OPS, Correa is the top shortstop to own for the long haul in the Majors.

Correa burst onto the scene in 2015, winning Rookie of the Year in a little more than half a season. Over his three seasons, aged 20-22, he has batted .288 with an .863 OPS. There is only room for improvement as he enters his age 23 season. Correa missed time last year, hitting 24 home runs in only 109 games. Assuming he stays healthy, I foresee his first 30 homer, 100 RBI season this year. Correa has also proved himself on the big stage at such a young age, homering five times during the postseason last year.

Correa is also fairly polished at shortstop at his young age. He has a solid .978 fielding percentage in each of the last two seasons and has a positive dWAR in all three. According to baseball reference’s total zone runs, Correa was worth eight defensive runs above average this past season.

2. Manny Machado

Primarily known as a third baseman, and a fine defensive one at that, Machado is moving to shortstop full time for this coming season. He started 43 games at the position last year, performing adequately but posting a negative zone rating. With a full offseason to prepare, maybe he will be a little better in 2018. After all, Machado was a two time Gold Glove winner at third base.

He also needs to rebound at the plate, coming off his worst season since 2014. That’s not to say he was bad, he did hit 33 homers after all. However, Machado’s average fell from .290 over the previous two seasons down to .259. His OPS also dropped nearly 100 points. I would expect a bit of a rebound, he did finish in the top five in back-to-back MVP votes before last season. Machado has also homered 105 times over the past three years. If there is one place where his skill set lags a bit behind, it’s in taking pitches and drawing walks. Machado has drawn a total of 49 walks over the past two seasons and posted a disappointing .310 on-base percentage last year.

3. Corey Seager

Seager was my favorite prospect in baseball after batting .349 with 20 home runs in 2014. He came in 5th in Baseball America’s prospect rankings heading into 2015, and his performance catapulted him to the top of their list for 2016. Two full seasons into his Major League career and he has not disappointed. Seager has batted .305 during his short career while posting an .876 OPS. He already has a Rookie of the Year, two Silver Sluggers and a third place MVP finish.

Seager has a beautiful, level swing, leading to a lot of hard contact. Despite hitting only 22 home runs, Seager had a top 25 average exit velocity in all of baseball last season. His 25% line drive rate was in the top ten. This leads me to believe that Seager will improve upon both his 22 home runs and his 33 doubles from a year ago. Two years ago he had 26 homers and 40 doubles, and it wouldn’t even be a surprise to see him eclipse those. Even if he doesn’t, Seager is an excellent, well-rounded hitter. He has a .374 career on-base percentage with a .502 slugging percentage.

Seager made some strides in the field last year, which makes sense given he was still only 23 years old. He cut his errors down from 18 to 11 while improving his fielding percentage to .979. Seager also went from two runs saved below average in 2016 to 11 runs above average last year. He might not wow in any one category, but Seager looks like an across the board producer for years to come.

4. Francisco Lindor

Lindor turned into a very different player from the one that he was expected to be last year. Coming through the minors, he was projected to be a high contact hitter who would play excellent defense. That’s exactly what happened his first two years, batting over .300 both seasons with moderate pop. Last year, his average dropped down to .273 while his home runs more than doubled to 33. His doubles also skyrocketed, going from 30 to 44. Lindor seemed to sell out a bit for power, which wasn’t necessary given his excellent performance to that point. It leaves me curious to find out which Lindor we will see moving forward. Either way, both are excellent players.

Lindor is an excellent defender, posting a 5.7 dWAR in less than three full seasons. He has posted a 49 defensive runs saved above average during that time and has a .981 fielding percentage. His glove work netted him the Gold Glove in 2016.

5. Trea Turner

After being a top prospect, Trea Turner has been electric since getting the call to the big leagues. After getting a chance in 2016, Turner was one of the very best hitters in baseball. He batted .342 with a .937 OPS. Trea Turner is also a burner on the basepaths and stole 33 bases that season. Last year, his numbers dropped off a bit, as they almost had to. Turner batted .284 with a .789 OPS while missing some time with injury. He again showed off his wheels, stealing 46 bases in only 98 games.

I don’t think Turner is as good as he was two years ago, but is probably better than last year. When you combine the two seasons, you get a .304 hitter with an .840 OPS. With his gap power and his speed, Turner gets a lot of extra-base hits, averaging 32 doubles and 11 triples over 162 games for his career. He seems to be capable of hitting .300 with 15-20 home runs while hitting a lot of doubles and triples. All of this and he is also capable of stealing 50 bags.

Turner falls well behind the rest of the pack in the field though. Despite being relatively sure-handed, Turner does not have the range for the position. He had a decent .979 fielding percentage last year, yet his total zone rating gave him 11 defensive runs below average last season. His range factor, at 3.91, was easily below the average of 4.15. Second base could be in Trea’s future.

Brad Mills – USA Today Sports

6. Didi Gregorious

Remember when Didi was a glove first prospect? Coming through the minors, he was supposed to be a light-hitting, glove first shortstop. His defense has been decent, but nothing special to this point. However, his bat has carried him. Gregorious is one of the better hitting shortstops in baseball, hitting 45 home runs over the past two seasons. This is after he homered 26 times in over 2000 minor league at-bats. It isn’t just Yankee Stadium either, as Gregorious posted far better stats on the road last year.

One thing that holds Gregorious back some at the plate is his lack of walks. Gregorious has only drawn 44 walks over the past two seasons combined. This has led to a sub-par .311 on-base percentage despite a good .281 batting average. He doesn’t strike out much though, making consistent contact requiring fielders to make a play on the ball. Take the good with the bad and I actually think this Yankee is a little underrated.

7. Paul DeJong

DeJong is a player who wasn’t on the radar of many people last year. He never made any top 100 prospect lists, so he wasn’t well known outside of the St. Louis organization. That’s not to say there isn’t some pedigree to his performance though. DeJong was a fourth round pick in 2015 and hit 22 home runs in AA the following year. Last year he had an OPS over .900 in AAA when he got the call-up to the Cardinals.

DeJong mashed the ball at the big league level, hitting 25 home runs in 108 games. He had a .285 average for the season, so it wasn’t a power or nothing approach. Despite him not cracking any prospect lists, I think based on his high draft position and his performance in the minor leagues that DeJong’s bat is for real. His glove was relatively average based upon every metric, but that kind of bat coupled with an average glove is a heck of a shortstop.

8. Andrelton Simmons

Simmons is on here for one reason; he is one of the best defensive shortstops you will ever see. Simmons routinely makes the highlight reels for the plays he makes in the field. He has a .982 career fielding percentage which doesn’t come close to telling the whole story. Simmons tends to get to a lot of balls others wouldn’t, which can lead to a few more errors. His range is in a class by itself.

Simmons bat took a step forward last year, so it will be interesting to see if the juiced balls helped aid that or if he is making progress. After posting just a .664 OPS over the previous four seasons, Simmons had a career high .752 OPS last year. He hit .278 with 14 home runs a year after batting .281 in his first season with the Angels. He kept his average up from his Atlanta days while adding a little more pop.

9. Xander Bogaerts

Bogaerts is still only 25 despite being a part of the Red Sox World Series team in 2013. There is a pretty good chance I am underselling Bogaerts in this spot, as he was a huge prospect who has proven capable of hitting well in the majors. Bogaerts was twice a top 10 prospect in all of baseball according to Baseball America, topping out at second in 2014. He also has a season in which he batted .320 and another during which he homered 21 times. Bogaerts was off to a good start last year, batting .303 in the first half. A wrist injury caused his hitting ability to fall off in the second half and leave him with a .273 average. A healthy Bogaerts could hit .300 with 20 home runs.

If Bogaerts does rebound at the plate, his glove is still likely to hold him back some. He has a negative dWAR in three of his four seasons and negative defensive runs saved in all four. His .977 career fielding percentage at the position isn’t bad, but his range is well below average.

Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts hits a ground-rule double to right in the ninth inning of the ALCS, Game 4 at Comerica Park against the Tigers in 2013. Staff Photo by Matt Stone

10. Elvis Andrus

Andrus is someone I considered the most overrated shortstop in baseball for a few years. Given a big contract, Andrus batted just .264 with a very weak .657 OPS from 2015-2017. However, Andrus now has two consecutive years of good play at the plate in addition to his defense. After seven years in the league, Andrus batted a career high .302 while also hitting a career high eight home runs in 2016. Yes, eight was his career high after eight seasons and he somehow hit 20 home runs last year. A little change in his approach may have helped, but I am a little skeptical of him repeating that. Even still, he batted .297 a year after hitting .302. He also saved 23 runs above average on defense according to the total zone rating on baseballreference.com.

Honorable Mentions:

Jean Segura, Dansby Swanson, Addison Russell, Zack Cozart, Orlando Arcia, Trevor Story

 

Featured picture from the Sporting News

Ben Mondor: The Man Who Saved the Paw Sox

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Continuing with our Paw Sox Relocation series, the proud franchise that is the Pawtucket Red Sox owns a deep history. The Paw Sox are currently faced with relocation to dreaded Worcester before. Not to mention, entering near bankruptcy. However, one man pulled the pride of Pawtucket out of the trash and into the future. That man is Ben Mondor.

1970’s

The Year of Our Lord 1970 gave birth to the very first incarnation of the Pawtucket Red Sox. However, they were a Double-A team at the time. Pawtucket was beginning to seem like their home for the foreseeable future. In 1973, the Pawtucket Red Sox players packed their bags for Bristol, Connecticut to make room for a new team… The Pawtucket Red Sox! This time in Triple-A.

In light of the relocation, some exceptional players got the chance to play on the new Paw Sox. Including Carlton Fisk, Cecil Cooper, Dick Pole and Rick Burleson. The 1973 team made history by winning the Governor’s Cup in their first season. The first true taste of victory did not last long in Pawtucket. During the next three season, the Paw Sox finished below .500.  Due to the lack of on-field success and lots of empty seats, the franchise went bankrupt. Relocation, again seemed imminent.

Ben Mondor

Tom Yawkey to the Red Sox is Ben Mondor is to the Paw Sox. Ben Mondor, a successful businessman, wanted to make sure baseball remained in Pawtucket. Mondor, an honorary degree holder from Providence College, was born in St-Ignace-du-Lac, Maskinongé, Quebec on March 26, 1925. The two time International League Executive of the year, took the Paw Sox from a team playing in a ball park that had not been updated since before World War 2 ended, and molded them into one of the most well-known and respected minor league franchises in all of baseball.  Mondor saved McCoy Stadium and made it a landmark.

Courtesy of Boston.com

Ben Mondor, an owner who was beloved by players, chatted with Nomar Garciaparra (above) in 2004, when the shortstop was on a rehab stint with Pawtucket. (Joe Giblin/ Associated Press)

He did all this while never losing sight of the fans.  Despite spending millions of dollars to renovate McCoy Stadium, tickets remained cheap at $6 and kept parking free.  John Henry could learn a thing or two from Mondor.  Prior to his death on October 2010, Mondor made a point of greeting fans as they were entering and leaving the ballpark.  Today, Mr. Mondor continues this tradtion as a life-sized statue outside McCoy Stadium.  His smiling face continues to welcome Paw Sox fans.  Mondor saved the Paw Sox from moving away before.  His widow, Madeleine Mondor inherited the team.  Larry Lucchino pried the Paw Sox away from her and he and his ownership group want the Paw Sox out of their home in McCoy and possibly out of Rhode Island.  I hope Ben Mondor’s ghost makes a visit to Larry.

 

Follow Matt McGurn on Twitter: @MickGurn

The Top Second Basemen in Baseball Long-Term

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If you were to start a team from scratch, which second basemen would you target? You need to factor in not only play, but age and longevity as well. I don’t see any debate over the top spot, but beyond that point someone could go any number of directions. From two through ten there is a lot of jockeying. I did my best to put them in order balancing age and performance, but there are still a few very solid players not inside the top ten.

1. Jose Altuve

The MVP stands head and shoulders above the rest of the crowd, even if he literally stands head and shoulders below them. Altuve has been the best second baseman in baseball over the past four seasons and doesn’t turn 28 until May. During those four seasons Altuve has won three batting titles and led the league in hits all four seasons. He has also led the league in stolen bases twice, won an MVP Award and placed third in another vote. Altuve also collected 22 base hits and seven home runs during postseason play this past year, helping the Astros to their World Series title.

Altuve has proven he can do just about anything at the plate he wants. He has transformed himself from the singles and doubles hitter he was in 2014, to someone who can pop homers over the fence without sacrificing doubles. In 2014 when he batted .341, Altuve only homered seven times while hitting 47 doubles. The last two seasons he has hit 24 home runs in each while still hitting 81 doubles. His average over these past two seasons has been .341, the same it was the year he hit seven home runs. Altuve is remarkable, without even thinking about the fact he stands just 5’6″.

2. Brian Dozier

Brian Dozier is the biggest power hitter at the position. Not only that, he steals some bags and plays excellent defense. Since his first full season, Dozier has averaged 29 home runs and 16 stolen bases per season. His home runs increased each season through 2016, culminating with him setting the American League record for home runs by a second baseman in a season (42). Not like he fell off horribly last year, homering 34 times. Dozier also stole 18 bags in 20 tries in 2016. With 76 home runs and an .871 OPS over these past two years, Dozier seems like he has settled in as a true threat.

As for his defense, Dozier has made less than 10 errors in each of the last three seasons. Last year he only made five all year, putting up a .993 fielding percentage. This led to him winning his first Gold Glove. Dozier is a great all-around player, and turning 31 this May, he should be for a while to come.

Photo by Hannah Foslien

3. Javier Baez

Baez has been consistently improving since he entered the league with large fanfare in 2014. Baez mashed a lot of home runs in the minor leagues and entered the 2014 season as the 5th best prospect in baseball according to Baseball America. He wasn’t ready for the majors though, striking out in over 40% of his plate appearances that season. Baez still rarely walks and has a lot of swing and miss in his game, but has cut back his strike out rate significantly. He has also batted .273 two seasons in a row after hitting .169 that first year. Baez homered 23 times last year and posted a .480 slugging percentage. At just 25 years old for this season, Baez can be expected to make continued improvements.

Baez is stellar in the field as well. It seemed like every night there was some highlight of him making a play this past season. He played a lot of shortstop this past season as well, but second base is his most likely position moving forward. His added versatility only makes him more valuable though. Baez has posted 3.1 dWAR over the past two seasons.

4. Jonathan Schoop

Schoop was a solid prospect, but no one expected quite what he did last year. Schoop has improved with each season he has been in the big leagues, going from a .209 hitter in 2014 to the one we saw last year. He batted .293 and hit 32 home runs last year while making his first All-Star Game. He does have his subtractors though; Schoop struck out 142 times against just 35 walks last year. This was after walking just 21 times the year before.

At just 26, maybe Schoop should be ahead of Baez at least based on last year. However, based on his approach at the plate I don’t expect Schoop to ever duplicate what he accomplished last season. I see him being closer to the hitter he was in 2016, when he batted .267 with 25 home runs while posting a .752 OPS. He is still a good player, but not the star we saw last year. Time will tell if I am wrong. One more added bonus to Schoop is his ability to play every day. Schoop has only missed two games over the last two seasons.

5. Daniel Murphy

If this list were just for this season, Murphy would place second or third. However, Murphy is 33 years old on April 1st, so his position drops a bit. Murphy also isn’t the best fielder, posting a negative dWAR in six straight seasons. Murphy is one of the very best hitters though, so his spot is safe. From 2011-2015, Murphy batted .291 while averaging 10 home runs per year. He has always been a solid hitter. Since then, Murphy has made adjustments to his approach at the plate and started hitting the ball in the air more.

Murphy took the postseason by storm in 2015 when trying to do more damage with his at-bats. He hit seven home runs in the playoffs and won NLCS MVP. He continued with this new approach and has homered 48 times the last two years while leading the league in doubles both seasons. In 2016, he came in 2nd in the MVP vote after leading the league with a .985 OPS. He has batted .334 while averaging 24 home runs, 45 doubles and a .956 OPS over those seasons. At 33, he shouldn’t decline for a couple of years still, but he also doesn’t have nearly the time left of most others on this list.

6. Ozzie Albies

Albies doesn’t even have a full season in the Major Leagues, but he looks like a potential star. Albies was on all prospect lists the past two years, and came in at number 11 on Baseball America heading into last year. He batted .304 over parts of four minor league seasons. A line drive hitter, Albies has added a little bit of pop in recent years, as power usually develops with age. He isn’t expected to ever be a power hitter, but he could hit 15 home runs while hitting for good averages. Last season he hit 15 home runs between AAA and the majors. He hit .286 with six home runs over his first 217 Major League at-bats last year.

Albies also has a lot of speed. He stole 102 bases in his minor league career. That’s over 25 stolen bases per season and he wasn’t even playing full seasons in two of those. Last year, Albies stole 21 bases in 23 tries at AAA Gwinnett. After being called up to Atlanta, he stole eight more bases while only being caught once. Albies is also expected to have a good glove, and he made only three errors with a .987 fielding percentage with the Braves.

7. D.J. LeMahieu

Whether or not you want to argue about the affects of Coors Field, D.J. LeMahieu is an excellent hitter. LeMahieu has only surpassed 100 strike outs in one season, consistently putting the ball in play. Over the past three years he has made two All-Star Games and batted .319. LeMahieu has batted over .300 in each of those seasons and won the batting title in 2016. Even playing in Coors, he doesn’t have much power, but with averages like that does it really matter?

LeMahieu is also a stellar defender at second, making just 34 errors across parts of seven seasons. He has never made double digit errors in any season, giving him a career .991 fielding percentage at the position. LeMahieu was able to capture his second career Gold Glove this past season.

8. Yoan Moncada

This selection is all about projection. At just 22, Moncada has not shown much at the big league level yet. He batted just .231 this past season, although he did put up a .338 on-base percentage. He also managed to hit 8 home runs in 199 at-bats, showing his power potential.

Moncada’s reason for showing here is his big-time potential. Moncada was third in Baseball America’s prospect rankings for 2016, and 2nd for 2017. He has not only shown power potential, but the ability to steal a lot of bases. In 2015 he stole 49 bases while only being caught three times. The next year he stole 45 bags while hitting 15 home runs. His steals have dwindled the higher he has climbed, but between AAA and the White Sox last season he did post a 20-20 season. He has the lowest floor of anyone on this list, but one of the higher ceilings.

9. Rougned Odor

Odor is not your typical second baseman. Odor strikes out a lot, never walks and hits a lot of home runs. That is someone you might expect to find at first base or DH. His power at second base is hard to ignore entirely for this list, but his questionable ability to get on base drops him down to a fringe candidate. Odor was much better the two seasons prior to last year, so based on that potential I am including him.

Odor put up a .791 OPS his first two full seasons despite drawing just 42 walks. In 2016, he homered a lot more often than he drew a walk, 33-19. It was a very strange season, as he put up a weak .296 on-base percentage but had a stellar .502 slugging percentage. Last year he homered 30 times again, and upped his walks to a still meager 32. However, his average tanked, hitting a paltry .204 for the season. I am going to assume he is better than that and put him ninth.

10. Robinson Cano

There are several options still left for this tenth spot, but I am giving the nod to the future Hall of Famer. Cano is approaching top ten all-time status at second base, if he isn’t already. But Cano is 35 now and has shown signs of decline. He is still a very good player, but being so much older and already on the decline he doesn’t have as much value as these younger players.

Cano was awesome two years ago, bashing a career high 39 homers to go with his .882 OPS. However, his other three seasons in Seattle, although good, have been far inferior. Last year he dropped off to .280 with 23 home runs. That season was more in line with what he did in 2015, leaving 2016 as a massive outlier. So in those other two seasons surrounding 2016 he has batted .284 with an average of 22 home runs per season and an OPS below .800. That seems to be more the player Cano is right now. Whereas that is still good, he only has maybe two or three seasons left like that.

Seattle Mariners’ Robinson Cano watches his two-run homer at Yankee Stadium.
Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports

Honorable Mentions:

Whit Merrifield, Starlin Castro, Scooter Gennett, Dustin Pedroia, Cesar Hernandez

 

 

Feature picture from The Atlantic

Why Alex Cora May Be the Best Offeason Pickup

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Let’s face it, this past offseason was as boring as watching David Ortiz run a forty-yard dash. The only exciting moment was J.D. Martinez signing with Boston for a $110 million deal. With the offseason concluded and the Red Sox underway with the season, we arrive at the question: “Who was the best pickup this offseason?” Well, believe it or not it’s Alex Cora. Not Mitch Moreland, not Keith Moreland, or Matt Moreland, but their new manager Alex Cora.

Dave Dombrowski’s goals this past offseason were to hire a new skip and to add power to the lineup. He achieved those two goals, one in which was hiring Alex Cora. As we all know, this is Cora’s first stint as a manager, coming off a World Series title with the Houston Astros this past season. Being one of the youngest managers in Red Sox history, connecting with the young talent the Sox have made Cora an ideal fit. Cora has also had stints as teammates of Dustin Pedroia and briefly Mitch Moreland while with Texas (which everyone forgets). Cora finished his career with a .243 batting average, cranking only 35 homers and driving in 286 RBI’s. Don’t forget folks, he was part of our World Series title team back in 2007, so he knows what it takes to win both on the filed and in the dugout.

Entering this season I was excited. Cora brings youth and great baseball know-how to a team that can make some noise this season. The Red Sox are off to a hot start, winning eight of their first nine games. Their only loss occurred on Opening Day. His goal as a manager is to just be himself. Mainly, he wants to build a close relationship with his players. Find out what’s going on with each players lives both on and off the field. He believes a close, positive relationship with his players will lead to success and so far, it’s working.

There seems to be only positive news and results coming from Boston since the start of Spring Training. This team has become more fun to watch and it seems they’ve become more intertwined as a team. No, it’s not because they’re playing Fortnite in the clubhouse every day. It’s because of Alex Cora, and the good vibes he brings to the ball field each and every day.

The Boston Red Sox Aren’t Panicking

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The 2017 Boston Red Sox won 93 games last year, but it didn’t feel like that. The pitching was mostly dominant and the offense scored the sixth most runs in baseball, but there was something missing. The loss of David Ortiz drastically affected the offense, as the Sox finished dead last in home runs. In previous off-seasons, this would lead to management throwing an endless sum of money at any and all solutions they could find. However, this off-season, the Red Sox aren’t panicking, and it’s a welcome change of pace.

The Boston Red Sox Aren’t Panicking

Learning From History – Rusney Castillo

The Red Sox have had their fair share of free agency blunders, but let’s begin with what happened in the 2014-2015 offseason. The 2014 Red Sox were not a good team, and there were some glaring holes that needed to be fixed heading into 2015.

One year earlier, the Red Sox were outbid for Cuban first baseman Jose Abreau, who was tearing up the league with the Chicago White Sox. Not wanting to make the same mistake twice, they signed the next big thing out of Cuba, Rusney Castillo, to a seven-year, 72 million dollar contract. The Sox were the highest bidders by a wide margin, and Castillo made the move from Cuba to Boston.

Suffice to say this deal hasn’t worked out. Castillo never showed the ability to hit at the major league level and showed a frightening lack of situational awareness. Castillo is currently playing for the Pawtucket Red Sox and hasn’t seen the majors since early 2016. There’s no clear road back to the majors for him, as his contract is essentially keeping him in the minors. As long as he stays in the minors, his contract won’t affect the luxury tax. He’s shown improvement in AAA, but not enough to justify the luxury tax impact promoting him would cause.

2015’s Quest for an Ace

While international free agency didn’t work for the Sox that year, they also struggled assembling major league talent. Their first misstep came in their attempt to find an ace. After completely ruining the Jon Lester situation by lowballing him in contract offers, the Sox found themselves without an ace on the staff. Secondly, the Red Sox needed more power.

The Red Sox correctly identified both needs, but failed in finding the players to fill them. The Sox traded for Detroit Tigers pitcher Rick Porcello and tried to make him the ace of the team. He signed a four-year, 82.5 million dollar contract extension before the season started, more than the Red Sox initially offered Lester.

Porcello struggled his first year in Boston, but most of that falls on the Red Sox organization itself. Porcello had always been reliant on accuracy and pitching to weak contact. With the big contract signed, Porcello tried to become a true ace and transform into Corey Kluber. It backfired, and Porcello admitted he put too much pressure on himself to change his style.

2015’s Quest For Offense

Image result for sandoval fat

The Red Sox signed Sandoval to be a star. It….didn’t work out

Image credit: Total Pro Sports

The Red Sox also entered the 2014-2015 offseason needing more power. Ortiz was still great, but outside of him the team couldn’t buy a run. They needed to find power hitters in free agency. Once more, the Sox overpaid and missed big. Boston brought in two of the biggest sluggers on the market and drastically overpaid for both. Hanley Ramirez came over on a four-year, 88 million dollar deal and Pablo Sandoval joined the team on a five-year, 95 million dollar contract.

While Ramirez has had his high points for the Sox (mostly in 2016), both players were terrible in 2015 and neither are living up to their contracts. Sandoval in particular was horrendous, as the Red Sox had to eat the whole contract just to get the third baseman off the team.

In the case of all four contracts, the Red Sox overreacted to a flaw on the team. They tried to make Castillo into Abreau, Porcello into an ace he had never proven to be, and they paid Ramirez and Sandoval as if both were in their prime. While Ramirez and Porcello have helped the Sox recently, neither one is living up to their contract.

Quest for an Ace – Part Two

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The Red Sox worked hard to make sure this shirt wouldn’t make another appearance

Image credit: Rob Bradford

Expectations rose for the 2016 Red Sox thanks to a young core that finally looked ready to break out. Everyone wanted to end Ortiz’s final season with a championship. There was still one glaring flaw in the roster: there wasn’t a true ace.

In a desperate attempt to make sure the “He’s the Ace” T-Shirt wouldn’t come back, the Sox signed free agent David Price to a seven-year, 217 million dollar contract. This was a hard break from the Sox typical strategy of not investing in pitchers over 30.

Some people make the Price signing out to be as bad as the Sandoval signing, and that’s unfair. Like Ramirez and Porcello, Price has made an overall positive impact on the team. He performed adequately in 2016 and played through a painful elbow injury in 2017. However, his production has not matched his contract, just like Ramirez and Porcello. The elbow injury isn’t likely to get better as he gets older, and soon the contract will be another burden the Red Sox have to plan around.

The 2017-2018 Offseason

Fast forward to the present, and the Red Sox appeared to have learned their lesson. They need a power bat, and J.D. Martinez fills the role. However, they’re not just blindly throwing money and hoping he will single-handedly win a World Series.

According to reports, the Red Sox currently have offered Martinez a five-year deal worth roughly 110-125 million. Martinez’ camp was expecting an offer closer to seven years and over 200 million. The 30-year old outfielder seems content to wait for a better offer, but the Sox are right to stay put.

Signing Martinez on a five-year deal for roughly 25 million a season would be a big boost to this team. He’s a great power bat and would be a perfect complement to a great pitching staff and an already solid offense. However, he’s not the type of player who deserves the seven-year, 200 million deal he’s looking for.

Martinez is below average defensively, and would spend most of his time as the designated hitter. Health is another concern, as he’s played more than 125 games just once in his career. Power numbers typically decrease with age, and the injury concern would only get worse as time goes on. There’s no doubt that by year six or seven of the proposed contract, Martinez would be nothing more than a 30 million a year burden.

Outbidding Themselves

Not only that, but the Red Sox know they have the best offer. In years past, the Red Sox would intentionally overpay free agents such as Price, Ramirez and Sandoval. This strategy ensured the Sox would get whoever they wanted, but it drastically hindered their ability to build a team.

Current reports state that the Arizona Diamondbacks have the next closest offer with a five-year, 100 million dollar offer. This means that the Red Sox are beating the Diamondbacks by roughly 10 to 25 million dollars over the life of the contract. Instead of bidding against themselves, the Red Sox are wisely staying put with their current offer. Even if they don’t get him, there’s other options on the table.

It’s been a very boring offseason for Boston and around the league. The players want more money than teams are willing to give, and the league is currently in the midst of a giant standstill. However, this is the right strategy for the Red Sox. They’ve made reactionary, impulsive moves before, and all have been disappointing in some form. This free agent strategy ensures that the Sox should still get their guy without burdening the team for years to come.

The Top First Basemen in Baseball

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First base is one of the deepest positions in the league. As such, there will be plenty of talented players left off this list. Also, whereas Joey Votto is arguably the best first baseman right now, at the age of 34 he drops a few spots for the purposes of my list. I factor in age and answer the question, who would I most want to start a team with? I could easily go 15 deep in this list, but sticking with the theme, here are my top 10.

1. Paul Goldschmidt

Paul Goldschmidt is about as steady as they come. Year in, year out, he puts up big numbers without as much publicity as the game’s top stars. Make no mistake, he is one of the top stars in the game. Goldy, as he is affectionately called, hasn’t batted below .297 since 2012 and has eclipsed 30 home runs three times during that span. 2013 was his true breakout season, leading the league with 36 home runs, 125 RBI and a .952 OPS. Two years later he was even better, batting .321 with 33 home runs and a career high 1.005 OPS. In a stat that adjusts for ballpark and other factors, Goldschmidt also posted a career best 168 OPS+. He finished 2nd in the MVP vote for the second time in three years. Last season he finished third in the vote after hitting 36 home runs.

Goldschmidt is also perhaps the best baserunner amongst first basemen. He stole 18 bags for the second time in his career last season. The year before he had stolen a career high 32 bases! Goldschmidt isn’t fast, he is just adept at getting big leads and reading a pitcher. According to Mike Petriello of MLB.com, Goldschmidt has an average lead of nearly 15 feet when he attempts to steal a base. The average lead is less than 12 feet. In the field, Goldschmidt has a career .996 fielding percentage and has won 3 Gold Gloves. He is a very well-rounded player and my choice for the best first baseman in baseball.

2. Freddie Freeman

Freeman has always been a good player, but his game has gone to new heights the past two years. Over his first five seasons, Freeman was a .286 hitter and averaged 21 home runs per season with an .835 OPS. The beginning of 2016 was much the same, but starting in June, he changed his hitting approach. His adjustments helped him see the ball longer and to stay on the pitch. Since, he has been one of the best hitters in baseball.

Freeman wound up hitting .302 with 34 homers and a .968 OPS that season. This past year, despite missing time with an injury, Freeman hit .307 with 28 home runs and a career high .989 OPS. The OPS was the second highest among first basemen in the Major Leagues. This all led to a 4.5 WAR despite only accumulating 440 at-bats. Still just 28 years old, there is no reason Freeman shouldn’t continue this stellar play for years to come.

3. Anthony Rizzo

Anthony Rizzo has overcome a lot to get where he is now. A top prospect with the Red Sox, Rizzo had to conquer cancer at the age of 18. He was traded to San Diego and did not find immediate Major League success. Reacquired by Theo Epstein, the man who initially brought him to Boston, Rizzo started showing why he was a big prospect. For four seasons now he has been one of the better first basemen in the league.

Over these past four seasons, Rizzo has hit over 30 home runs in each season. During that time he has batted .282 with a .387/.522/.910 triple slash. There haven’t been many more consistent power threats in the game during that span. At 28 years old, Rizzo is part of the same generation as Goldschmidt and Freeman and should be hitting baseballs over the wall for plenty of years to come.

Anthony Rizzo of the Chicago Cubs hits a two run home run in the 4th inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Wrigley Field on July 7, 2017. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel)

4. Cody Bellinger

At just 22 years old last year, Bellinger led all first baseman in home runs with 39. His .933 OPS placed 4th at the position while his .581 slugging percentage was second to Freddie Freeman. At such a young age, Bellinger should have more years to offer than those above him on this list, but they are all young enough they should produce well for an entire length of a contract. I also trust the ones above him to perform more consistently. Bellinger was a top prospect, and I have no doubt he will keep performing, but I’d like to see more before elevating him above established superstars.

Bellinger has revamped his swing in recent years and gets incredible lift on the ball, so the power is likely to stay. Whereas he used to be “stiff” at the plate, Dodgers coaches worked with him through the minors to change his style. Bellinger went from hitting four home runs over 377 at-bats in 2013 and 2014, to hitting 30 homers in 2015. The one downside, if any, is that he strikes out a fair amount and doesn’t hit for as high an average as those above him. At just 22, I can see him improve that area of his game without sacrificing a great deal of power.

5. Joey Votto

As I said in the opening, Votto is arguably the best first baseman in the league. However, he is 34 years old. The guys above him likely have six or more years of star play left, Votto might have two or three before he starts to decline. Still, I will take two or three years of superstar play and then a couple more years of decent play over just good play for six years.

In Votto’s first full season he batted .297. In 2014, he missed half the season with injury and only batted .255. He has batted above .300 all of the other nine seasons in his career. He has led the league in on-base percentage six times, including each of the last two. Votto is coming off a season arguably equal to his MVP season of 2010, batting .320 with 36 home runs and a .454/.578/1.032 slash line. He is a remarkable hitter, putting up stellar numbers while rarely popping out. Over the last three seasons, Votto has batted .320 with a 1.006 OPS. He is averaging 31 home runs per season and has walked more times than he has struck out. Currently, Votto is showing no signs of slowing down, and hopefully he can continue this play for a couple more seasons.

6. Eric Hosmer

Incredibly, Hosmer remains unsigned at the time this article was released. What a strange offseason of baseball. Hosmer doesn’t stand out across the board, but he offers production at just about every level. He’s capable of hitting for a solid average with decent pop and he plays good defense. He has had a strange career offensively, alternating good seasons with poor ones for the first five seasons. His average has still followed an up and down year-by-year course to this day. He seems to have added more power to his game though, homering 25 times in each of the past two seasons.

Defensive metrics don’t like Hosmer, giving him a negative dWAR in every season of his career. He has a .995 career fielding percentage though, and not everyone who watches him play can be wrong. Those that see him think he is a good defender and he has won four Gold Gloves. He doesn’t steal bases like he used to, stealing 22 over the past four seasons compared to the 38 during his first three seasons. However, he plays nearly every day. In fact, he did play all 162 games last season. He has only missed time with injury in one season out of seven.

7. Jose Abreu

Jose Abreu is a one-dimensional first baseman. Luckily for him, that one dimension is a pretty good one. Since coming to the states, Abreu has homered 30 times in three out of four seasons. He is a career .301 hitter with an .883 OPS. He’s not super young, having just turned 31, but he isn’t old either. He should be a fine hitter for several years to come. The question comes, when will he move to designated hitter? Abreu is a weak defender, making 35 errors and totaling a -5.3 dWAR in his four Major League seasons. He also is a slow baserunner, stealing six bases and grounding into 72 double plays to date.

8. Josh Bell

Josh Bell has been a top prospect for years. Debuting on Baseball America’s top 100 list prior to 2012, Bell spent four seasons as part of the list. Considered a polished hitter, scouts swore the power would come from the 6’2″ 230 pound Bell. He never homered more than 14 times in any minor league season. However, he batted over .300 twice while drawing a lot of walks.

Bell’s rookie season therefore came as a bit of a surprise. Bell only batted .255 last year, but homered 26 times while driving in 90 runs. This was a very different player from what we saw in the minors. They say power develops later, and he was always suspected of having it in him, so I am buying the home runs. His average though, I only see improving. Bell hit .303 with a .373 on-base percentage in the minor leagues. Maybe he will have a harder time batting .300 at the big league level, but I suspect he is capable of batting at least .280. A .280 average would likely mean a .350-.360 on-base percentage along with 25-30 home runs. Bell is still only 25 years old.

9. Matt Olson

Matt Olson has big time power. He never got quite as much publicity as Joey Gallo before last year, but he can mash a lot of home runs without threatening all-time strikeout records. Olson hit 23 and 37 home runs in 2013 and 2014 in the low minors. He fell off some in the upper minors before returning with a vengeance last season. Olson hit 23 home runs at the AAA level before homering 24 times over 189 Major League at-bats. His Major League slash line was an astounding .352/.651/1.003. He combined to hit 47 home runs over 483 at-bats between the two highest levels.

Olson has never, and never will hit for a high average. However, he isn’t likely to hit .200 either. Olson was a career .249 hitter in the minor leagues with a .360 on-base percentage. He is likely to settle in as a .240-.250 hitter with an on-base percentage roughly 100 points higher. For a guy who should hit between 30 and 40 home runs a year, that is plenty valuable. He could be an Adam Dunn type player who doesn’t walk quite as much if he continues on last year’s path. At just 23 and not even a full season in the bigs, I am more willing to bet on Olson’s upside than some other guys who just produced for the first time at the age of 30.

Matt Olson follows the flight of his homer at Detroit last week. He averaged one home run every 7.88 plate appearances.

10. Wil Myers

There were a bunch of guys jockeying for these last couple spots, but I ultimately sided with Myers. He has done more than most by the age of 27. I found myself surprised that he is still that young given how long he has been around. Myers is fast for the position, having come up as a corner outfielder. His 20 stolen bases last season led the position. He stole even more, 28, in 2016. Over these past two seasons in San Diego, Myers has hit 58 homers and stolen 48 bases. That’s a pretty good power-speed combination.

The area in which Myers could stand to improve is getting on base. He has batted just .251 over those two seasons with a middling .332 on-base percentage. His power and speed combo at 27 years old is enough to make me side with him at the 10 spot though. I also wonder if he might hit a little better elsewhere, as 22 of his 30 home runs last season came on the road. Of course, his splits for 2016 were skewered to be far more successful at home.

Honorable Mentions:

Justin Bour, Justin Smoak, Matt Carpenter, Joey Gallo, Logan Morrison, Carlos Santana, Yulieski Gurriel

 

Featured picture from zimbio.com