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Boston Sports Extra’s MLB Award Predictions

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With the Major League Baseball season almost upon us (finally), our baseball writers have collaborated to make our picks for the coming season. In this article we detail who will win the major awards for 2018; Most Valuable Player, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year for both leagues. We will follow this one up with a part two article covering our picks for the division winners and the postseason.

American League Most Valuable Player

Scott Frizzell – Mike Trout is my pick for this year’s MVP winner because he is awfully hard to pick against. Trout is the best player in baseball, and his first six seasons match up pretty favorably with just about any player in the game’s history. He could be a top ten player of all-time once he hangs them up.    Dark Horse Candidate – Francisco Lindor

Matt O’Halloran – Mike Trout seems like the best pick, as he has been for the past five years. He won the award in 2014 and 2016, and has been close to winning it in the other years. The Angels missed the Wild Card by five games in 2017, and a playoff run combined with a healthy season should guarantee a third MVP for the outfielder.    Runner up – Jose Altuve

Kyle Porch – Mookie Betts will win MVP this year because he has a lot to prove. Simply put, he got robbed of the award two years ago by Mike Trout, and he needs the numbers to get the extension he wants. With a third straight gold glove award in sight, the five tool player can rip it up offensively to which we have seen the last two seasons.

Justin Gonzalez – It has always been Mike Trout’s award to lose ever since he stepped foot in the MLB. Widely renowned as baseball’s best player, Trout seems to be catapulting himself towards a first ballot hall of fame vote already at the age of 26. Last year was seen as a down year for him since he only played in 114 games but was still able to post a 1.071 OPS, 33 HR, 72 RBI, .306 batting average while swiping 22 bags. Now batting in the best lineup he has ever been in, it is time for Trout to show us what he is truly capable of and all we can do is sit back and enjoy the show.

David Latham – It’s Altuve’s world, and we’re all just living in it. I’ve been a huge fan of Altuve ever since he entered the league, and outside of Mike Trout, there’s no other player I’d rather have on my team. He’s everything you want in a baseball player: he can hit for average, power, he’s a great athlete, and he gives 110% every single play.

Brandon Fazzolari – Carlos Correa is in the middle of a lineup that tests pitchers every step of the way, setting Correa up to produce huge numbers.

National League Most Valuable Player

Scott Frizzell – Bryce Harper has more or less become the player he was supposed to become over the last three seasons. Last year, his season was derailed by injury, but he was putting up big numbers before he went down. Now entering his first contract season, expect Harper to play as well as he ever has. I think numbers similar to his 2015 campaign are within reach.  Dark Horse Candidate – Christian Yelich

Matt O’Halloran – Nolan Arenado has been consistently great during his career, but never really talked about. It could be the Colorado market or blind fans chalking up the success to Coors, but that silence changes this year. Arenado is in a contract year, which should bolster his already impressive stats. The young third baseman is an outstanding defender and great hitter (even out of Coors). The Rockies made the wild card game last year, and another postseason berth combined with impressive numbers should get him the MVP.   Runner up – Corey Seager

Kyle Porch – Nolan Arenado will win the NL MVP award simply because of a continuation from last season. The Rockies third baseman will continue on his upward trend while earning a massive payday next season.

Justin Gonzalez – It must really suck to be Harper. I mean think about it: he has luscious hair, a beard that a lumberjack would approve of, a career WAR that is one point higher than his actual age (26 over 25), and is heading into one of the biggest contract years ever. Okay, maybe that doesn’t suck, but what I was getting at is imagine a baseball world without Mike Trout. We would be talking about Harper like he was the second coming of Ken Griffey Jr. I believe that this contract year for Harper is what will put him on the map clearly as the second best baseball player in the world.

David Latham – There are very few baseball players more talented than Washington Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper. Another guy that can do it all, Harper is set to hit unrestricted free agency at the end of 2018. Look for Harper to have an absolutely crazy 2018 before breaking the bank in 2019.

Brandon Fazzolari – Bryce Harper is a versatile performer that can hit for average and power from the left side. Barring injury, this award should be his.

Photo by Patrick Smith

American League Cy Young Award

Scott Frizzell – I like to dig a little deeper on AL Cy Young oftentimes, so my pick is going to be Lance McCullers this season. McCullers just needs to stay healthy, as he has never pitched more than 22 games in a season. His first two seasons he had a 3.22 ERA, and he struck out 11.8 batters per nine in 2016. When he went down with an injury last June, McCullers had a 2.58 ERA and 10.4 k/9. He pitched well in the postseason and so far this spring he has been lights out.   Dark Horse Candidate – James Paxton

Matt O’Halloran – Justin Verlander posted a 1.06 regular season ERA after he was traded to the Astros on August 31st. The ace was a big part of their world series run and should put up impressive numbers again. He won the award in 2011, and was a runner up in 2016. He has been consistently dominant since he entered the league in 2006, and there is no reason to believe that will stop.  Runner up – Chris Sale

Kyle Porch – Chris Sale will give hitters deja vu of his 2017 season to win the award. While working out with Jason Groome over the offseason, he has built muscle and the velocity has improved while under-exerting himself during spring training.

Justin Gonzalez – The 2017 Cy Young award runner up has some unfinished business to take care of in 2018. He got his inaugural Red Sox season out of the way and is looking to take back what was clearly his in the first half of the season. Sporting the highest career SO/W (strikeout per win) figure in MLB history, Sale does two things extremely well: strikeout batters and win games. Pitching in front of a better lineup than last season, he has a chance to have a career year. Pair all of this with his longevity boosting workout regimen and he is really in line for another spectacular season.

David Latham – For the first four months of the 2017 season, this award was Sale’s to lose. Unfortunately, fatigue set in and Sale had a rough end of the season. He ended up finishing second for the award, behind Cleveland Indians ace Corey Kluber.

Brandon Fazzolari – Chris Sale is the consummate power pitcher. He shows no signs of slowing down in his prime.

National League Cy Young Award

Scott Frizzell – Sticking with my theme of underdogs for Cy Young, I am taking Noah Syndergaard to win in the NL this year. Syndergaard isn’t quite the underdog McCullers is, but anyone not named Kershaw or Scherzer in the National League seems like a bit of one. After missing most of last season, Syndergaard is healthy and strong for this season. He came out firing 100 miles per hour early in spring.  Dark Horse Candidate – Aaron Nola

Matt O’Halloran – I could have flipped a coin between Kershaw and Max Scherzer. It is a two man race barring a major injury because they are the only best pitchers in the NL and whoever is third is a distant third. I predict Kershaw just because the Dodgers should finish ahead of the Nationals in the standings. He won the award in 2011, 2013, 2014, and was a runner up in 2017.   Runner up – Max Scherzer

Kyle Porch – Clayton Kershaw will continue his dominance by winning another Cy Young award. The Dodgers pitcher could opt out and with his 4th award he can get a huge payday.

Justin Gonzalez – Want to read a preposterous sentence? Clayton Kershaw could possibly have a better career than Trout when it is all said and done. Everyone knows that he is the best pitcher in baseball (you do know that, right?) but just how good is he? Well for starters, he hasn’t had an ERA over 2.50 since 2012 (2.53) and has only had an ERA over 3.00 ONCE in TEN seasons (his rookie year). Get my point? He already has a career WAR of 60.6 and is heading into a contract season. His recent injuries would be the only thing that would stop him from winning the award for the 4th time, but then again, injuries could happen to anybody on this list. I would be absolutely floored if Kershaw didn’t run away with the award yet again.

David Latham – Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball, and it’s not even that close. Until someone dethrones him as the best, this award will always be his to lose.

Brandon Fazzolari – Joining most others, I am picking Clayton Kershaw to win this award. It’s hard to believe Kershaw is still just 30 years old because he has been so good for so long.

Clayton Kershaw during the first inning against the Colorado Rockies, Wednesday, April 19, 2017. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

American League Rookie of the Year

Scott Frizzell – Shohei Ohtani seemed to be the clear favorite for this award before his lousy spring training. I wanted to go elsewhere with this pick anyways, Ohtani was too easy. Willie Calhoun of the Rangers is starting the season in the minors, but I think he will be up by the end of April. A former fourth round pick, Calhoun batted .300 with 31 home runs in AAA last season. In a hitter’s paradise in Arlington, Calhoun should make his mark this season.   Dark Horse Candidate – Austin Hays

Kyle Porch – Willie Calhoun has great speed not only in the outfield, but on the base path as well. If he can continue his hot hitting from the minors, he should be a lock for Rookie of The Year.

Justin Gonzalez – Eloy Jimenez ranks as the number four prospect in all of baseball and seems to be overshadowed by another soon to be star, Yoan Moncada. Originally from the Cubs organization before being traded to the ChiSox in exchange for Jose Quintana, Jimenez seems to be a player that can really be a pivotal piece towards the White Sox rebuild. The 21 year old has an eye-popping OPS of 2.381 in his first Spring Training. Jimenez recently got optioned to double-A, but there should not be any reason why the White Sox wouldn’t promote him at some point during the season.

David Latham – If Rafael Devers were eligible, I’d pick him here. However, he’s not, so the award goes to Texas Rangers outfielder Willie Calhoun. Calhoun is a power bat on a popular organization that should be average at least, so why not him?

Brandon Fazzolari – There’s a lot to like about the multi-talented Ohtani, but mostly that he’s in a lineup alongside Mike Trout.

Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

National League Rookie of the Year

Scott Frizzell – It is hard to pick against Ronald Acuña at this point. He will start the season in the minor leagues, but that is only to extend his years under team control. Acuña will be up before long and he is one of the most talented prospects to come up in sometime. Acuña has some all-around ability to his game in the vein of Mike Trout. In three stops last season. Acuña batted .325, hit 21 home runs and stole 44 bases. So far this spring, he has batted .432 with 4 homers and 4 steals.   Dark Horse Candidate – A.J. Minter

Kyle Porch – Ronald Acuña has flown through the Braves minor league system. Their number 1 prospect is expected to branch out in the majors this season.

Justin Gonzalez – J.P. Crawford seems to be one of the more overlooked players to get excited about in today’s baseball world. In a league where shortstop seems to be a position abundant with raw talent, it is hard to get noticed. However, Crawford will be the everyday shortstop for a Phillies team that has suddenly become decent. The acquisition of Carlos Santana, a full season of Rhys Hoskins and a hopeful season for Maikel Franco will really help Crawford out from the get go. His patience at the plate along with his ability to hit to all fields as well as his plus defending makes him one of the early front-runners for the NL Rookie of the Year.

David Latham – The Dodgers will be good this year, and Walker Buehler should be a big part of that. He won’t be the top arm in the rotation, which honestly should help his win total. He’s got a lot of talent, making it to the majors after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2016.

Brandon Fazzolari – If spring training is any indication, Acuña should win this award in a cakewalk.

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/2017/08/red_sox_reward_sam_kennedy_with_extension_and_promotion

The Red Sox Are in Win Now Mode

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With free agents and extensions not being a huge priority by Dombrowski and company, this roster has officially entered win now mode. But can they win?

Guys like Chris Sale, Craig Kimbrel, Mookie Betts, and Xander Bogaerts are the core of this Red Sox lineup. One has to ask- will they all remain on the roster? With only a handful of years and options combined, who’s getting paid, and who’s getting the boot? With a depleted farm system, and only so much cash to go around, the time to win a championship is now.

They have one of the best lineups and rotation around. With a talented manager and coaching staff to back it all up. The best part, we finally have a manager who can deal with David Price! With other powerhouses such as the Astros, Indians, and Yankees all fighting to play in October, this postseason will prove to be a heavyweight bout.

The Roster Is Here to Play

Having dominant pitching can help any team win at Fenway, the smallest ballpark in the league. Porcello and Price need a bounce back season. The continued success of Sale and Pomeranz can set the tone of the bullpen. After being bounced out of the first round the last two seasons, the motivation, drive, and identity of the team has significantly changed.

It took two months of waiting for J.D Martinez to officially sign with the club. His boast of confidence was felt through not only Red Sox Nation, but throughout the entire spring training clubhouse. As he wants to win multiple titles with the organization.

As long as their infield defense, pitching, and especially offensive power comes to play this season, there are no doubts that they can bring it to the postseason. With 162 games still to go, there are a lot of pieces still involved before postseason talks are even considered. With that being said, all we can do as fans is observe, and hope that this is the year.

J.D. Martinez Is Making Plays with Mookie Betts

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Looking Forward to J.D. Martinez in 2018

When J.D. Martinez signed with the Red Sox, it felt awesome no doubt. But it didn’t feel fully real. At least not then. I wouldn’t even say it feels 100% real now, as he has yet to play a regular season game for it to really sink in. But it’s definitely getting to the point where I don’t feel like I’m in a dream anymore.

It was the same way when David Price signed a couple of years back, and Chris Sale last year. They both had to start a few games before it really sunk in that they were here.

J.D. has finally gotten into his first few Spring Training games. I never really thought about it but hearing “J.D. driving in Mookie” is definitely a term we will be hearing all season. And I am here for it.

USA Today

Martinez + Mookie

Mookie Betts was in a 0-16 hole so far in Spring Training going into today’s game against the Rays. He finally got his first hit on a ground ball to third. He pointed to the sky and celebrated with the new first base coach Tom Gooden. But something would happen a few AB’s later that really got me excited.

J.D. Martinez came to the plate with two outs and Mookie on first base. J.D. had played his first game the day before and went 0-2 on two fly outs. On his first at bat in his second game hitting cleanup, he hit a fly ball to right field that got down. It went deep enough for Mookie to come around third and score.

That run didn’t matter much, as it was only a Spring Training run that got the game to a 3-1 deficit. None of that was what I was excited about. But it was the fact that J.D. Martinez had just driven in Mookie Betts. That is for sure a delightful thing to hear and something Sox fans will be hearing all season long. It will be a phrase that I will have no problem getting used to.

 

Cover image courtesy of NESN.

The Top Right Fielders Long-Term

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Right field is a very top heavy position. Not knowing yet how the Yankees will utilize their two sluggers, they both get included in right field as that’s where they have played previously. There is also a good chance they both play right field this season, rotating between there and DH. After a group of four superstars, the position has a steep drop-off. Who helps round out the top 10 for the best right fielders to have for the long haul?

1. Bryce Harper

Harper may not have been a consistent superstar to this point, but he is still only 25 years old. Harper has also put up superstar numbers for two of the last three seasons now while healthy. With his upside, and still being only 25, it is hard to argue against him in the top spot.

One of the most hyped phenoms of all-time, Harper broke in to the Major Leagues at the age of 19. Although it took a few years for him to achieve star numbers, he was good immediately. He hit 20 homers in each of his first two seasons and won the Rookie of the Year Award in 2012. Harper truly broke out in 2015 at just 22 years old. That season he won the MVP Award after leading the league in home runs, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. He batted .330 with a .460/.649/1.109 slash line, showing the world his immense upside. Although he “slumped” to an .814 OPS the next year, Harper bounced back last season before getting injured. He again had an OPS over 1.000 while batting .319 with 29 home runs over 420 at-bats.

The biggest concern with Harper’s productivity moving forward may be health. Harper has now missed a relatively large amount of time in half of his six Major League seasons. When healthy, Harper should threaten 40 home runs with a near 1.000 OPS for years to come.

2. Giancarlo Stanton

Stanton is another superstar right fielder who has struggled with injuries. Stanton has missed significant time in four of his Major League seasons. Despite all the missed time, Stanton’s 267 career home runs place him in the top 10 for most home runs through the age of 27. That number is more than Hank Aaron, Barry Bonds, Willie Mays and Babe Ruth. Imagine how many Stanton would have if not for the injuries. Heck, the last couple years he got hurt were fluke injuries. For his career, he has averaged 44 home runs per 162 games played.

In 2015, at the time of his beaning, Stanton was on pace for a 50 home run season. Last year he achieved it for real, bashing a league high 59 home runs. Now, leaving Miami, Stanton gets to play in a hitter’s park instead of a pitcher’s park. If he stays healthy, Stanton could see a couple more 50 home run seasons in his future. Health is the key for the man who hits the ball harder than anyone I have seen.

Stanton won’t be taking aim at this ugly sculpture anymore. (Getty Images)

3. Aaron Judge

Personally, I think we just saw Aaron Judge’s career year, but after what he accomplished as a rookie, it’s hard to put him lower than three. Judge never hit all that well in the minors, posting a high of 20 home runs in 2015. He also only batted better than .280 once, back in his first season. Yet, his first year in the bigs and Judge batted .284 with a league leading 52 home runs. Strange how things work out sometimes. Judge also led the league in walks, 127, and strike outs, 208. Judge then struck out 27 times in 13 postseason games. To keep his average up, he will certainly have to cut back on his strike outs.

Diving into his numbers, 25.9% of Aaron Judge’s fly balls traveled for home runs. That is an insanely high rate, as the league average is 9.6%. I have to think that number will come down, and probably below 20%. As for his strike out rate, which was higher than 30%, that definitely will need to improve for a repeat performance. A .357 BABIP, which places him in the top 10, helped him to his .284 average despite all the strike outs.

Now, all this isn’t saying Aaron Judge is going to be a bad player. I am merely pointing out his underlying numbers which tend to show he won’t be as good moving forward. If Judge drops to a .250 batting average, with the way he walks he will still have better than a .350 on-base percentage.

4. Mookie Betts

I would not be surprised if Betts provided more value moving forward than some guys ahead of him on my list. Coming off a “down season” it is hard to justify putting him higher than 4th. He is easily the best fielder of this bunch though and he was an MVP candidate two seasons ago. Betts also has the most speed of anyone to this point, giving him arguably the most well-rounded game of the group.

Betts strikes out far less than the average player, striking out in only 11.8% of his career plate appearances. That number has been right round 11% in back to back seasons now. Assuming his BABIP normalizes, he should bounce back to closer to the player he was two years ago. That season, Betts had 214 base hits on his way to a .318 batting average. He also hit 31 home runs, 42 doubles and stole 26 bases as he finished second to Mike Trout for the American League MVP Award. He didn’t benefit from a high BABIP (.320). But last season, Betts’ BABIP dropped all the way down to .268. He still hit 24 home runs and 46 doubles though, while once again stealing 26 bases. With a return to normalcy, Betts should be around the .300 mark again this season.

As for his defense, Betts has won two straight Gold Glove Awards while posting a 5.4 dWAR. He has saved more than 30 defensive runs above average in both seasons, totaling 63 between the seasons. His 31 last year were 13 more than any other right fielder had. At 25 years old, Betts should be an all-around star for years to come.

Boston Red Sox right fielder Mookie Betts hits a double against the Seattle Mariners during the sixth inning at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

5. Domingo Santana

This is where the position drops off, though Santana is still a good player. Given a chance to start for the first time last season, Santana hit 30 home runs. Not only that, Santana exhibited the ability to draw a walk, walking 73 times. This gave Santana an excellent .371/.505/.875 slash line. The on-base percentage placed him 4th among all right fielders and the slugging percentage was 6th. Not bad for a first full season.

Santana always exhibited ability, twice hitting over 20 home runs in the minors and another time posting a .999 OPS. He was a big piece of the Astros trade to acquire Mike Fiers and Carlos Gomez in 2015 for the stretch run. Playing half a season in the bigs in 2016, Santana hit 11 home runs and posted a .792 OPS. Yes, he was much better this past season, but it’s not like the season came out of nowhere. Also, young guys are supposed to improve, right? The ability is real, if anything drops some it will be his batting average after he benefited from a .363 BABIP this past year.

6. Nicholas Castellanos

After being a third baseman his whole career, Castellanos will call right field his home this season. He played 20 games there late last year to see if he could handle it. How he performs there is yet to be determined. As for the bat, that will play in right. Castellanos made Baseball America’s top 100 list four times, twice placing in the top 25. He then spent his first full season in the majors at the age of 22. It’s not a surprise it took him a few years to start producing, but he has now had two straight excellent seasons at the dish.

Castellanos took a big step forward two years ago, batting .285 with 18 home runs and an .827 OPS. Despite a slow start last season, Castellanos hit a career high 26 home runs and led the league with 10 triples. The numbers look sustainable, as his extra base hit percentage and home run rate have held steady the last two seasons. Castellanos has also improved his strike out rate in back to back years. Turning 26 in a couple of days, Castellanos should be entering his prime.

7. Andrew McCutchen

McCutchen has the superstar name, and certainly has been one, but he is on the wrong side of 30 now. His game has shown obvious signs of decline as he no longer has the speed to steal many bases or to play center field. McCutchen looks like he will play primarily right field for the first time in his career this season as he makes the move to San Francisco.

McCutchen may not be an MVP candidate anymore, but he still has a good bat. At 31, he isn’t so ancient that we should be expecting him to continue to rapidly decline. He still should have a few good seasons left in him. He isn’t the .300 hitter he was from 2012-2014, falling short of that mark in each of the last three seasons. However, he did bat .279 with 28 home runs last season. He probably will provide more value on defense as well playing in right field. He posted negative defensive value playing center in each of the last four seasons. However, McCutchen posted positive value in a 13 game stint in right field last year.

McCutchen will call San Francisco his home after spending his first 9 seasons in Pittsburgh.

8. Jay Bruce

Bruce will join McCutchen as a 31 year old shortly after the season begins. Although the age does him no favors in my long-term articles, it’s by no means a death knell. There is no reason why he can’t continue hitting into his mid-thirties at least. He ultimately may find himself moved to first base, a position he has played a little of before.

Bruce is a fairly one-dimensional slugger. Although he isn’t allergic to walks, he doesn’t walk too often. He doesn’t hit for a high average, he doesn’t steal bases, he mostly just slugs home runs. At least he seems to be a pretty good player again. From 2010-2013, Bruce batted .262 and averaged 30 home runs per year. He then had two very poor seasons, batting .222 without posting any real value. However, he is back to being the player he was before 2014 it seems. Bruce has hit .252 the last two seasons while hitting 69 home runs. He is coming off a career high 36 home runs last season. He looks like he should be a .250 30 home run hitter for a couple more seasons.

9. Yasiel Puig

Puig is a polarizing player, both on and off the field. He looked like a future star his first two seasons, batting .305 with an .888 OPS. His arm in right field was a weapon as well as his bat. Then his play fell off the next two seasons, batting just .260 with a .748 OPS. He hit only 22 home runs combined those two years and was sent to the minors in 2016. His attitude was considered to be a problem both on and off the field.

Still just 26 last season, Puig’s play rebounded. He still hit just .263, but he clubbed a career high 28 home runs. Puig posted an .833 OPS, his best in three seasons. His play in the outfield was arguably the best of his career, putting up 18 defensive runs saved above average. Runners don’t test his arm like they used to, as Puig had just 4 assists. But he’s still holding runners, and he only made one error.

So, which Puig will we see moving forward? Can he continue to be a force on the field or will his play regress again? Puig also carries the character concerns, meaning he could affect team chemistry even when going well. Still just 27 years old, Puig has plenty of time to turn his career around.

10. Nomar Mazara

Mazara was just 20 years old when he made the majors, and he has held his own. The number 21 prospect according to Baseball America in 2016, Mazara batted .266 and hit 20 home runs. Last season, he had his peaks and valleys, showing all the streakiness one might expect from a 22 year old. When all was said and done he had hit 22 home runs, doubled 30 times and driven in 101 runners. His average dropped a bit, while his other rate stats saw incremental gains.

I believe there is more in him waiting to show the world. He was a big prospect brought to the majors at such a young age. Still just 22 at the start of the year, Mazara has plenty of development left. He’s got plenty of power in his 6’4″ 215 pound frame, and I expect his skills to become more toned and consistent. I expect Mazara to post career highs across the board this season, except maybe runs batted in.

Honorable Mentions:

Steven Souza Jr., Avisail Garcia, Mitch Haniger, Gerardo Parra, David Peralta, Stephen Piscotty, Gregory Polanco, Josh Reddick, Scott Schebler, Randal Grichuk

 

 

 

Feature picture from Federalball.com

 

The Case for Xander Bogaerts Hitting Leadoff

The end of the 2017 season was disappointing for the Red Sox. The team looked worn down and crawled to the finish line. Not much went right in the last month, as the Red Sox were quickly eliminated from postseason contention. However, there was one good development from that September. Shortstop Xander Bogaerts became the leadoff hitter, and he thrived in the role. Moving forward, the Red Sox should keep Xander Bogaerts hitting leadoff.

The Case for Xander Bogaerts Hitting Leadoff

Boston will most likely have Mookie Betts be the leadoff hitter, and it’s hard to call if it that’s the wrong move or not. Betts has been the primary leadoff hitter since 2015, and has done a great job with the role. Mookie’s been the leadoff hitter 190 times in the past two seasons. He finished second in MVP voting in 2016 and established himself as one of the best ballplayers in baseball, so it’s clearly working for him.

Moving Mookie Down

Image result for mookie betts

Mookie Betts will perform regardless of his spot in the order

Image credit: USA Today

However, Mookie may be too good of a hitter to be leadoff. Mookie has the most home runs on the Red Sox since 2015. While he won’t be the best power bat now that the Sox have J.D. Martinez, he’s still too powerful for the leadoff spot. With Mookie hitting first, there aren’t as many runners to drive in. If Mookie were moved down to third in the lineup, he would typically have more runners on base, and thus could use his power to drive in more runs.

Some players, for whatever reason, don’t perform as well when moved in the lineup. Historically, Mookie hasn’t had that problem. Mookie’s shifted down in the lineup before, and he’s remained essentially the same hitter. In 2017, he posted a .266/.341/.474 slash line when hitting first compared to a .270/.355/.461 line when hitting third. 2016 was more of the same, as Mookie hit .314/.355/.546 leading off and .314/.333/.529 hitting third.

Moving Xander Up

Mookie will thrive regardless of where he hits, so why would Bogaerts be a better fit to lead off? The most obvious answer comes from the end of last season. He only led off in 28 games, which is an admittedly small sample size, but the results were encouraging.

In those 28 games, Bogaerts put up .309/.406/.418 slash line. In every other game of the season, Bogaerts put up a combined .265/.327/.399 slash. His numbers skyrocketed at leadoff, but the jump is even more impressive when factoring when Bogaerts started hitting leadoff. It’s no secret that Bogaerts slumps towards the end of the season; it’s been an issue almost every season he’s been in the majors. However, something about hitting leadoff made Bogaerts break out of his slump and put up some good numbers.

As mentioned earlier, Bogaerts played only 28 games as the leadoff hitter, and it’s hard to interpolate a sample size that small into a full season. However, Bogaerts’s hitting style suggests that his success as a leadoff hitter wasn’t a fluke.

The most important quality of a leadoff hitter is to get on base, and that’s where Bogaerts thrives. The shortstop has led the team in batting average in two of the last three seasons, and is one of the best two strike hitters in the league. Bogaerts’s skill set has grown rare in the juiced ball era, and there aren’t many players left capable of taking a tough two strike pitch and getting an opposite field single or double.

Bogaerts will also likely benefit from Alex Cora’s philosophical change of attacking good pitches. Former manager John Farrell believed in working the count to a stubborn degree, and consistently left his players down in the count. Bogaerts is a great contact hitter, and now he can swing at any pitch he wants. This should lead to a rise in his batting average and slugging percentage, which makes him even more valuable as a leadoff hitter.

Bogaerts, Betts, and the Offense

Image result for mookie betts xander bogaerts

Image credit: MassLive

Ultimately, there’s no bad choice here. This offense is stacked with talent, and runs should come regardless of who hits where. However, the best lineup features Bogaerts leading off and Mookie in the three spot. Mookie has too much power to lead off, which actively takes runs off the board. Bogaerts is too good at getting on base, and his ability would be wasted hitting him in the six hole. It wouldn’t be the safe move, but it is the right move.

 

Cover image courtesy of overthemonster.com

The Boston Red Sox Have No Ceiling

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The Boston Red Sox won 93 games and a division title last season, and they’ve only gotten better. The offense underachieved last season, and just about every player will probably increase their production in 2018. They’ve replaced John Farrell with a younger manager who better fits the team in Alex Cora. This alone guaranteed the Red Sox would be a good team in 2018. After bringing on JD Martinez, the 2018 Boston Red Sox have no ceiling

The Missing Power

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JD Martinez is finally a Red Sox!

Image Credit: Yahoo Sports

The Boston Red Sox put up the sixth most runs in the American League last season, but the offense as a whole didn’t feel that great. This was due to the fact the Red Sox finished dead last in the AL in home runs. They could mash singles and doubles, but they lacked a guy that could change a games outcome with just a swing of a bat.

After a long and tedious offseason, that need has finally been met. The Red Sox signed the best power hitter on the market, JD Martinez, to a very reasonable five-year deal for $110 million. It’s no secret that the Red Sox wanted him from the start of free agency, but they played their cards right. Instead of overpaying, they got their top free agent on a deal that won’t burden the team years down the line.

And boy does Martinez fill a need. Martinez has hit 105 home runs in the past three seasons. By comparison, Mookie Betts is the next closest on the Red Sox with 73 homers. Martinez is more than a one-trick pony, as his average slash line over the past three seasons has been .297/.364/.586. He’s not just a great power hitter, he’s a great all-around hitter. Players capable of hitting for power and average are becoming increasingly hard to find, and the Sox found one.

Internal Offensive Improvements

As mentioned earlier, the Red Sox offense as a whole regressed in 2017. Just about everyone underperformed from their previous seasons. The Red Sox young core of Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, and Jackie Bradley Jr. are projected by just about every source to improve on their 2017 season. Hanley Ramirez has changed his offseason workout regimen, and there’s plenty of reason to believe he’ll have a great bounce back year.

While the established players should bounce back, two very young players should continue to improve. Left fielder Andrew Benintendi and third baseman Rafael Devers are entering their second full year in the pros, and should play huge roles in the team’s success.

Benintendi had a good 2017, finishing second in the rookie of the year voting to Yankees slugger Aaron Judge. However, his season was streaky and he went through the normal highs and lows of being a rookie. Those lows shouldn’t be as low or last as long with a full year under his belt. Outside of Mookie, Benintendi could be the best all-around player on the Red Sox. He could even make an MVP push if everything breaks right.

The Devers Factor

Devers could make an even bigger impact. The third baseman was promoted to the majors at age 20 after just one week in AAA Pawtucket simply because the Red Sox third base situation was that bad. Most any other player would struggle given such a drastic rise in competition, but Devers thrived. His major league career began with a home run, and he never slowed as the season went on.

Devers became arguably the best power bat on the 2017 Red Sox. In just 58 games, the Red Sox rookie hit 10 home runs with a .284/.338/.442 slash line. He had a knack for big moment plays, most notably his homer against Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman and his inside the park homer against the Houston Astros in the playoffs. This is great production for any rookie, nevermind a 20-year old who got called up primarily out of desperation.

His fielding needs some work, but that should improve with time. He’ll never win a gold glove, but he should figure out how to be a major league fielder. Obviously, major league players hit the ball a lot harder than the AA guys he faced the first half of the season. He made a few great defensive plays his rookie year, and his mechanics should improve with time.

Even if you don’t believe Devers can match his rookie production, there’s no way he can be worse than what the Red Sox sent out in 2017. In his half season in the pros, Devers compiled a respectable 0.9 WAR. By comparison, the primary third base options in the beginning of that season (Tsu-Wei Lin, Devin Marrero, Pablo Sandoval, Brock Holt) put up a combined -0.8 WAR. By default, Devers at third will be better than whatever the alternative is.

The Starting Pitching

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As great as the lineup is, the rotation is just as good

Image credit: Boston Herald

While the offense struggled in 2017, the starting pitching was mostly dominant, and most of those pieces are returning healthier than ever. Chris Sale and a now-healthy David Price are arguably the best one-two combination in baseball. Sale is a top-five pitcher, and should be in the Cy Young running again. Price isn’t what he was, but he’s still a great pitcher who would be the ace on most teams. His elbow is a concern, but as long as he’s healthy he should remain one of the best #2 starters in baseball.

The crew behind that duo is pretty impressive. Drew Pomeranz probably won’t be able to match his 2017 production, but he’s still a safe bet to finish the season with a 3.50-3.70 ERA and get six to seven innings a start. That’s the recipe for a good third starter. Contrarily, Rick Porcello will almost certainly not be as bad in 2018 as he was in 2017. He probably won’t win the Cy Young again, but he doesn’t need to. Expect Porcello to finish the season with an ERA around 4 and eat at least six innings every time he gets the ball.

The biggest wild card here is what Eduardo Rodriguez can do. He’s flashed his huge ceiling ever since being called up in 2015, but injuries and inconsistency have plagued the pitcher. He will miss part of the season with a knee injury, but expect big things when he comes back. A new manager might just be the change E-Rod needs to finally break out and become the pitcher he’s capable of. If he can do that, he immediately becomes the #3 guy in the rotation.

The Depth Starters

The Red Sox have their top five set in stone, but all five won’t be healthy for all 162 games. Fortunately, the Red Sox are pretty well set with their backup plans. Knuckleballer Steven Wright has performed well in the past as a starter, and will likely take E-Rod’s spot in the rotation while he gets healthy. It looks as though Wright has finally put his shoulder injury behind him, which bodes well for the Red Sox. The last time Wright was healthy was in the first half of 2016, when he earned a spot at the All-Star game.

The Red Sox are pretty well set even if calamity strikes and they need two spot starters at once. Both Hector Velasquez and Brian Johnson have shown they’re capable of performing adequately when their number is called. While neither player should be used as anything other than a last resort, they’re both capable of starting a major league game and keeping the Sox in it.

The Bullpen

This is arguably the weakest part of the Red Sox roster, which says a lot about how strong every other part of the Red Sox is. The Sox still have a top-five closer in Craig Kimbrel, and it sounds like Cora is willing to use him in more than just save situations. Kimbrel has been one of the best relievers in baseball for years, and that shouldn’t change now.

Addison Reed left in the offseason, but the duo of Carson Smith and Tyler Thornberg will fill his role. Smith looked as advertised in limited outings last season, and Thornberg had a great 2016 with the Milwaukee Brewers before missing all of 2017. All three aforementioned arms can blow up the radar gun and could prove to be a dominant grouping in the final three innings of the game.

The guys behind the top three aren’t bad either. Joe Kelly, Brandon Workman, and Matt Barnes all have their flaws and limitations, but each has shown flashes of brilliance. Each can come into a game early and keep the now-explosive Red Sox offense in it. Of this group, Workman has the highest upside.

Injuries robbed Workman of his 2015 and 2016 seasons after a failed attempt at being a starter in 2014. Workman faltered down the stretch, posting a 6.10 ERA in September and October. Before that, though, Workman put up a very impressive 2.15 ERA in 29.1 innings of relief. Workman’s late season skid was probably due to fatigue; he hadn’t pitched in the majors since 2014. If Workman can come back and last a full season, the Red Sox have yet another dangerous arm.

The Competition

The Red Sox are a very good team and could very easily break 100 wins if everything goes their way. However, don’t plan the World Series parade yet. The AL is stacked with high talent teams, and 2018 should be a great season for baseball.

The reigning champion Houston Astros are the team to beat, and they’re not going anywhere. Superstars Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa will wreak havoc on the league for the next decade. Their championship wasn’t a fluke, and it wouldn’t surprise anyone if the Astros went back to back.

The New York Yankees have an impressive young core of sluggers, and just added NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton. The Cleveland Indians remain an incredibly difficult team to beat as long as it’s not an elimination game. Just like 2017, these three teams and the Red Sox should make up the top four American League teams.

The Red Sox are now on that level. Sure, they won the division last season, but everyone knew what was awaiting them in the playoffs. This year, a division title isn’t the best case scenario. With a new power hitter, offensive improvements from within, and a great group of pitchers, these Red Sox are ready to challenge for a World Series title.

 

Cover image courtesy of MassLive.com.

Masslive photo J.D. Martinez

J.D. Martinez Is Not the Only Way Boston Can Return to Contention

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I will be the first person to tell you how badly the Red Sox need a bat like J.D. Martinez’s in order to make a deep run in the playoffs. This article isn’t going to back up the opinion that this team, as built, is ready to contend with NYY/WAS/LAD/HOU.

Down Year 2017

All of last season, the void that David Ortiz left in the lineup went unfilled. There was a clear home run surge in the MLB last year, and Boston was left out.

Jackie Bradley Jr. had a season that earned him a spot on Yahoo’s “most overrated players in the MLB” list. Something JBJ looks to use as motivation to get back on track this season: 

Xander Bogaerts was snuffed by a lingering hand injury last year. One that even he says he probably shouldn’t have played through. On regaining some pop after recovering from his hand injury, Bogaerts said, “I’m not saying I’m going out and hitting 60 like Stanton or something, but I can definitely go out there and put up the same numbers as ‘16, maybe a little bit better”. In 2016, the season Xander is referring to, he smacked 21 home runs.

Hanley Ramirez was battling a shoulder injury from right out the gate last season. In an interview, Hanley said that he plans on playing another ‘10 years’ and sees himself returning to ‘Miami Hanley’ this year.

After being an A.L. MVP candidate in 2016, Betts batted .318 with 31 HR and 113 RBI. He as well found himself slumping (by his standards) in 2017 where he batted .264 and had less home runs and RBI’s.

In the Red Sox first season without their locker room leader and best slugger in the middle of the lineup, four other key parts of their lineup found themselves in down years… Boston still managed to win 93 games.

As it stands right now, Boston is still the favorite to sign J.D. Martinez. If Boston snags J.D., and gets bounce-back seasons from at least three of the four guys listed above, they will have submitted themselves back into the World Series discussion.

Alternative to J.D. Martinez

Let’s say that Arizona ends up bringing back J.D. Martinez.

The reaction to spring training thus far has been less than enthusiastic for most Red Sox fans. People have already mailed in the season because the Bronx got Stanton.

This Red Sox roster is a good one. It may not be a world series contender, but it doesn’t have to be.

They are a wild card team as is, and with good years from Bogaerts/Bradley/Betts, they could potentially snag the division.

Trade Deadline

What I am getting at, is that this roster doesn’t need to add anybody right now. It can wait until the trade deadline. I once wrote an article, here, where I went over every single trade deadline that Dave Dombrowski has been in charge for, and you will see that he has never left a deadline without filling the team’s needs.

If for some reason the Red Sox miss out on Martinez, waiting until the deadline is something that can benefit them. This would give Dombrowski a chance to see the team play this year. By doing so, he can get a better feel for their needs.

Another reason that waiting for the trade deadline may be a good idea is that the impending free agency for next year is loaded. Free agency has a huge impact on the trade deadline. Teams that have players with contracts that are expiring are more willing to move them at the deadline instead of potentially losing them for almost nothing in free agency.

This list of impending free agents that could be dealt at the trade deadline include the likes of Manny Machado, Josh Donaldson, Nelson Cruz, Ian Kinsler, and Brian Dozier. All of these players, some for a greater price than others, could be brought in for a playoff run to help this team.

Boston Will Be Fine

Whichever way Boston ends up going, do not give up on this team yet. They managed to win 93 games in a season with a poor manager, locker room drama, and serious lineup slumps. Not to mention they had a down year from their 2016 Cy Young winner, Rick Porcello. Also, Boston lost both Steven Wright and ‘Ace’ David Price to injuries for all if not most of the season.

If J.D. Martinez ends up donning a Red Sox uniform, they will be locked and loaded from game one. If they lose out on J.D Martinez, Boston has the juice to get to the trade deadline, where Dave Dombrowski can load up for a playoff run.

The Red Sox Can’t Afford to Mess up Their Relationship with Mookie Betts

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Arbitration

Recently it was reported that Mookie Betts and the Red Sox weren’t able to agree on an arbitration deal. Right away I thought, oh boy.

Mookie wanted $10.5 million and the Red Sox were willing to pay him $7.5 million. Consequently a hearing took place, and that’s never good news. I thought it was all unnecessary and that the Red Sox should have just gave him the money. He’s clearly the best hitter and all around player on your team. Having a dispute with him and his agent this early is never good news.

Mookie won the arbitration case and will get his $10.5 million for 2018, which is the most ever awarded to a first year arbitration eligible player through a hearing. So what does this mean going forward?

It means that the Red Sox front office is headed towards what they’ve done in the past. They are trying to underrate or underpay players that clearly deserves more. Because when you do that, it never usually ends well. A more recent example of this happening is with Jon Lester. The Sox offered him a four year, $70 million contract and later offered a six year, $135 million offer. However, it wasn’t enough and the Cubs got him on a six year $155 million offer.

Stats Don’t Lie

Talk about any player on the Red Sox you want, Jackie Bradley Jr, Xander Bogearts, Rafael Devers, the big favorite Andrew Benintendi. There is nobody as good as a player on this team as Mookie Betts. I loved this guy the moment I saw him. I saw his first hit in Yankee Stadium. His first homer. I was hooked. This man is one of a kind. His wrists are like no other, the way he pulls inside pitches are incredible. He reminds me so much of Andrew McCutchen, another player I liked even before I knew about Mookie. And this is all just eye test stuff.

Right away I knew this man can ball. In 2014 he hit .291, had an on base of .368 in half a year. His first full year in 2015 he hit .291, a OBP of .341, and a slugging of .479. Follow that up with a runner-up for MVP year in 2016 as he hit .318, an on base of .363, and a slugging of .534. In 2017 he had a “down year” as he had a .264/.344/.459 slash line.

He still has some to prove, no doubt. I do think 2018 will be an outliar as far as his power goes. However he is younger than the Rookie of the Year Aaron Judge. And I haven’t even mentioned his incredible defense yet. This man is no doubt Boston’s best player. A valuable player. He cannot end up like some of the others this front office has screwed over. He is someone you want to have around for a very long time, and the Red Sox have to realize this.

 

Cover photo courtesy of isportsweb.com.

The Red Sox Are Trying Something New

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When you think of the all-time great Boston Red Sox, there are many players that come to mind. The organization has been blessed with an absurd amount of legends in its long history, from Ted Williams, to Carl Yastrzemski, to Carlton Fisk, to David Ortiz, and countless more. While all those legends are separated by decades, there is one thing that most of them share in common. Outside of Pedro Martinez, the best Sox players were always hitters. Looking at 2018, that probably won’t be the case. The Red Sox are trying something new this season – and that’s ok.

The Red Sox Are Trying Something New

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It may not look like the normal Red Sox team, but there should be a lot of dancing this season 

Image credit: SI.com

Historically, the Red Sox have never made acquiring top pitchers their main priority. Of course, they’ve never turned down signing a good pitcher if one fell into their lap, but generally speaking the organization has always put the focus on getting the best bat instead of the best arm. In 2016, the Red Sox took a turn from history and put more of the focus on pitching. With Ortiz retiring, they knew there would need to be a change in organizational philosophy.

With Ortiz’ departure imminent, the Sox went all in on pitching. Within two years, the Sox had remade their starting rotation. Boston added Chris Sale, David Price, and Drew Pomeranz to join Eddie Rodriguez and Rick Porcello. Additionally, the bullpen has added a series of hard throwing late inning arms to replace the likes of Jean Machi and the corpse of Junichi Tazawa.

Despite winning 93 games and the division title, the Red Sox 2017 season didn’t go as planned. Overall, the pitching held up its end of the bargain, but the offense lacked pop due to the absence of Ortiz along with some regression from the young core. Meanwhile, the Yankees young core had spent all of 2017 destroying baseballs, coming one game shy of the World Series.

Red Sox Nation freaked when the Yankees acquired NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton. The most power happy offense had added the best power hitter from the 2017 season. With all that firepower, there’s no way to think that the Red Sox can produce an offense that could match the Yankees. They can’t, but that’s fine. The Red Sox aren’t trying to, and they shouldn’t.

Where the Red Sox Stand Now

Adding J.D. Martinez would help Boston, but it’s not going to make or break the season. With or without him, Boston will not be able to match the Yankees lineup bat for bat. That’s where the pitching staff comes in. The Sox have a rotation led by two true aces in Chris Sale and David Price. Drew Pomeranz put together a great season last year, and Alex Cora should be the fix that lets Eddie Rodriguez make the leap. Rick Porcello is just one year removed from a Cy Young and will probably be better this year than last.

The bullpen is looking great too. The Sox should look to add another late inning arm, but the bullpen still figures to be a big strength. Craig Kimbrel was the best closer in baseball last year, and Carson Smith looked good in a small sample size. Tyler Thornberg still exists and will be pitching at some point. Joe Kelly and Matt Barnes should never be the top arms in the bullpen, but they’re great depth to have.

The Winning Strategy

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Chris Sale’s arm will play a big role in this teams success

Image credit: NESN.com

The pitching will be enough to keep games close, so the offense doesn’t need to be a juggernaut to win games. Let’s assume the worst case scenario that Martinez doesn’t sign and nobody else is brought in. There would be a relative lack of power, but the Sox would still be in good shape.

Mookie Betts is an annual MVP candidate and will almost certainly be better in 2018 than 2017. Jackie Bradley Jr is streaky, but when he’s hot, he’s nearly unstoppable. Xander Bogaerts won’t ever hit 30 home runs, but he’s got amazing hands and is one of the best at making solid contact and getting on base. His innate ability to get on base and hit to all areas of the park makes him a great fit for the lead-off or second spot. On top of that, his annual second half slump could be a thing of the past now that the Sox have a manager that actually knows when a player needs a rest day.

Young Reinforcements

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Expect this guy to become a household name before long

Image credit: Boston Globe

The established players should bounce back, but the younger players should add a kick of their own too. Andrew Benintendi played incredibly well for a rookie, but he did have his ups and downs. With a full year of the majors under his belt, he should continue his upward trajectory and could even push for the MVP if everything breaks right.

Third baseman Rafael Devers had a steep learning curve in 2017 and played incredibly well. Devers was promoted to the majors after just a week in Triple A after spending the first half of the season in AA ball. Somehow, the jump from AA pitching to major league didn’t affect him. Devers was one of the best power hitters on the team last year, and was responsible for some of the best moments of the season. His defense needs work, but his bat and athleticism have unreal potential.

All in all, this shapes up to be a good offense without accounting for Martinez or another power bat. It’s certainly an offense that’s good enough to compete with a good pitching staff to compliment it. When paired with a great pitching staff, it’s downright scary. It’s not a lineup that looks like a typical Red Sox lineup. It’s something new, but it’s something that should lead to serious World Series contention.

 

Cover image courtesy of Boston.com.

Mookie Betts: Arbitration Deal in his Favor

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Asking Price that led to Arbitration

The Red Sox only offered $7.5 million, which was substantially lower than the $10.5 million that was asked for. This is Betts’s first year being eligible for arbitration, and he now has the largest first year case win in the MLB. Mookie has been part of the team for several years and definitely earned the $10.5 million. His agent put out the asking price this offseason, and it raised some eyebrows. The Sox put up $3 million less in rebuttal. The Red Sox eventually gave Mookie the $10.5 million and he won his arbitration hearing. There are problems that the Sox organization will now face when it comes to working with Mookie and his agent. This is going to be because the hearing had to happen so late in the offseason.

Trouble in Paradise due to Arbitration

The biggest problem is the length of time that it took to come to an agreement. Both Mookie and his agent have grown to love the city of Boston and the organization itself. The question being asked now is how long will Mookie stay in Boston? The organization only offered $7.5 million, which can cause Mookie to see that they were not interested in him enough to raise his salary. Going into an arbitration deal is never something that a player wants, but there are pros and cons to the hearing. If the organization only wanted to offer the $7.5 million, do they plan to keep Mookie in Boston? Through the arbitration, Mookie and his agent may feel as though the Sox are not as interested in the right fielder anymore.

Why did the Sox go into Arbitration?

The Red Sox still are trying to get a power hitter. Maybe the reason was that they did not know how much money they wanted to offer. With Mookie playing at the level he is, there was never talk of a trade, but there was also never a talk about a raise. The Red Sox organization has had there focus on obtaining a power hitter. Due to that, they have neglected current players or those who hold other positions. Mookie Betts was never in trade talk, but they also never discussed keeping him around for many years.

Sources

Boston Red Sox

Boston Globe