Tag Archives: nathan eovaldi

The Blueprint For 2019 Nathan Eovaldi: 2013 Koji Uehara

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There is much consternation about Nathan Eovaldi being rushed back. Part of this is due to the news that he will not be used on back to back days, at least to start. But the Red Sox have seen this act before, and it was a thing of beauty. In 2013 Koji Uehara was used with kids gloves and it resulted in a World Series Championship.

What it could look like

In 2013 Koji managed to rack up 21 Saves. He got his first Save on May17th, but he didn’t start getting them consistently until June 26th. In the end here are his raw days off numbers from that year:

  • Days worked with at least a day off: 80%
  • Days off before working back to back: 2.27
  • Times working three straight days: 1

It just so happened Uehara had five days off before his only time pitching back to back to back.

Eovaldi will be starting a month later, more or less, than when Koji started in 2013. But from here on out it’s conceivable he could save 15-20 games for the 2019 Red Sox. And while both pitchers had and have injury histories, Koji was 38, while Eovaldi is 29. Koji worked with guile and an almost unbelievable .565 WHIP. Incredibly, Nathan Eovaldi, pitching against the best competition in last year’s playoffs, had a .536 WHIP. And unlike Koji, he has high 90s heat.

Alex Cora will have a hard time not using Eovaldi back to back if there are save situations galore over the next two weeks against the Rays and Yankees. But Alex Cora is a better manager than John Farrell was. Having watched Uehara in 2013 we’ve seen this kind of thing before. It is not a reason to be worried about Nathan Eovaldi in the Closer’s role.

Featured Image Via The Boston Herald

Red Sox Bullpen Target: Greg Holland

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There’s a man who could help bring stability to the bullpen toiling away in the deserts of Arizona. Greg Holland could be just what the doctor ordered to combine with Nathan Eovaldi in the late innings for the Boston Red Sox.

Contract

What makes Holland such an attractive target is his salary. He is on a one year contract for $3.25 Million, with two $1 Million bonuses he is likely to achieve. Because half the season is gone, the Red Sox would only be on the hook for half the base plus bonuses. This fits into their extremely limited “salary cap’ space.

Pedigree

Greg Holland was the linchpin of the vaunted Kansas City 2014 AL Champion bullpen. During that postseason run he had a 0.82 ERA for a team that lost to the San Francisco Giants. But they did go on a run from the Wild Card all the way to the World Series. The next year the Royals won it all, but Holland went down in August of that year with an injury that led to Tommy John surgery. All in all he saved 145 games for the Royals over parts of six seasons.

He took 2016 off recovering from TJS, before emerging in Colorado to lead the league in Saves with 41 in 2017. He toiled in the setup role for the Cardinals and Nationals in 2018, predictably struggling without being the Closer for the first time in years, with a combined 4.66 ERA. This year he landed the Closer role in Arizona and has 14 Saves with a 3.30 ERA.

Arizona

Currently the Diamondbacks are 46-45 and 13.5 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West. They are 1.5 games out of the NL Wildcard. When spring training started they were hoping Archie Bradley would grab hold of the Closer role. Bradley has disappointed, but others, including Yoan Lopez (34 Innings, 11 Holds, 1.59 ERA, .94 WHIP), have stepped up. Over the next two weeks, if they falter even a little, they will look to sell and Holland will be a prime candidate to move.

Low Price

Because Holland’s ERA has risen from 2.08 to 3.30 recently he should come cheap. Cheaper than the popular names out there like Will Smith of the Giants or Felipe Vazquez of the Pirates. Likely it would be low level minor leaguers.

The Diamondbacks’ GM is former interim Red Sox GM Mike Hazen. He was Dave Dombrowski’s top aide during the 2016 season before taking the GM job in Arizona. There’s a lot of familiarity between the two teams. This means a deal could happen quickly. Holland has had time to get used to not being the main Closer on a team. Nathan Eovaldi will most likely not be used on back to back days. This would be an under the radar addition that could pay huge dividends.

Featured image via Myfantasysportstalk.com

Put Eovaldi In The Bullpen

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This Red Sox season has seemed like one long extended Alien Ant Farm, Michael Jackson “Smooth Criminal” mashup. No, no we are not ok. I said we are not ok. Didn’t you hear me? Oh, right, we’ve been hit. Nathan Eovaldi apparently is not walking through that door before late June or early July at the earliest.

It’s not just the starting rotation that’s been hurting, but the bullpen too. Ryan Brasier, as predicted, has regressed. This is putting a lot of strain on the most consistent member of Alex Cora‘s pen: Matt Barnes.

Lou’s point is a good one. Matt Barnes has too much on his shoulders. Imagine if he was given the job of Closer, the stability Craig Kimbrel insisted on. The only thing Lou’s missing is Barnes isn’t just the Closer, he’s the stopper, the only one Cora trusts this year with the most difficult part of the opposing lineup. So he’s the 7th, 8th and 9th inning guy.

Eovaldi To The Pen

Sometimes, as Pete Townshend told us, one and one don’t make two, they make one. Eovaldi’s well known injury history has bitten, but what if he doesn’t have to pitch 80 or 90 or 100 pitches? He has his big contract, he’s in the first year of a four year $67.5 Million deal. That needle that pushes into the competitive and fear centers of the brain isn’t there. He doesn’t need to be a sometimes competitive starter to make his dough. He’s made it. Couldn’t he be happy being a dominant Closer?

Sale, Price, Porcello, Rodriguez. Those are your top four starters. Yes, the replacements in the rotation have been dreadful, but 10 blown saves on the year so far are more important that the fifth starter.

Playoff Eovaldi

Alex Cora used “The Rover” in the 2018 playoffs. He asked the starters to fill in the bullpen gaps. Eovaldi was the most successful. For his career he has a 4.21 ERA with a 1.352 WHIP. In the playoffs, as a Rover, against the Astros and the Dodgers, he went 9.1 innings, four hits, one walk, seven strikouts, one earned run. Some quick calculations get to a 0.99 ERA and 0.54 WHIP.

If Eovaldi can do that against the toughest competition in the league, he can do it on a Wednesday night in June, or any other day.

Make Nathan Eovaldi a $17 million a year Closer. Give Barnes another year as the setup man. Next year, when Rick Porcello goes elsewhere and Pablo Sandoval‘s $18 Million come off the books…Hold it right there. Sometimes the reasons that the Red Sox have the highest payroll in the league and can’t add any more are dumbfounding.

Regardless, right now, for this team, Eovaldi in the bullpen makes too much sense.

Red Sox-Yankees Series Preview

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When the Red Sox and Yankees usually meet it is a contest of an immovable object vs an unstoppable force. In this case the immovable object is a losing record for both teams, the unstoppable force injury on one side and mediocrity on the other.

The Yankee injuries include Stanton, Severino, Gregroious, Betances, Sanchez, Hicks and Andujar. That’s an All Star team. Not for nothing, but Aaron Judge seems like the only important piece not injured. They’re record is 6-9 and there’s a very good reason for it.

And then there is the 6-11 Red Sox. If I have to hear ‘It’s early’ one more time I might just burn one of my many Red Sox towels. The ravens have flown, it is officially spring. This team is sleep walking right now and it has to stop. On to the preview:

Image per Larry Brown Sports

Pitching Matchups/Schedule (TV)

4/16 Chris Sale vs James Paxton 6:35 NESN

417 Nathan Eovaldi vs J.A. Happ 6:35 ESPN

Notable Numbers

1.93: That is the ERA for both Chris Sale and Nathan Eovaldi against the Yankees in the last three years. They’re certified Yankee killers. Could this be just what the doctor ordered to get these guys on track? Who can say?

Against Paxton, J.D. Martinez should continue his hot start to the season. He’s hit .500 against Paxton in his career. Both Brock Holt and JBJ have gone 3-7 against him as well. That short porch in right at Yankee Stadium might be beneficial to the Sox slumbering bats.

The Sox may hit Happ to a measly .212 as a team, but Steve Pearce has shined: .344 lifetime with 6 home runs.

What To Watch For

How about a little life from the boys? How about a glimmer of hope that the team is here to play this year? If you listened to Cora after Patriots Day he seemed to sense that maybe it’s not so early. On paper the Sox should sweep the two game series.

Expectations

It’s anyone’s guess right now. Even if the Sox sweep these two games it will be against half the Yankees. Look for signs of life. If we see grind it out at bats and pitchers hitting locations early we’ll know the Sox are waking up. But Nathan Eovaldi has a 8.40 ERA, Chris Sale a 9.0 ERA. The team is hitting around .230 overall right now.

Again, on paper, this is a Red Sox sweep. But the flesh and blood Sox are teetering on the precipice of irrelevancy. The fact the Yankees are reeling is the only light in our collective Sox universe.

I’m hoping for Cora to put on his cape and cowl and give us another super hero managerial performance. To save this team from themselves. But it sure looks like the Night King has set up residence in the clubhouse.

Featured Image via HBO screen grab

Red Sox – Mariners 2019 Season Opening Series Preview

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The defending champs face off against a stripped down Seattle Mariners team in a four game series starting today in Seattle. Here’s what to look for as the Red Sox kick off the 2019 season.

Pitching Matchups/Schedule (TV)

3/28 Chris Sale vs Marco Gonzalez 7:10pm ESPN/NESN

3/29 Nathan Eovaldi vs Yusei Kikuchi 10:10pm NESN

3/30 Eduardo Rodriguez vs Mike Leake 9:10pm NESN

3/31 Rick Porcello vs Wade LeBlanc 4:10pm NESN

Notable Numbers

Rookie Yusei Kikuchi pitched well in his Major League debut in his Japanese homeland last week, allowing 2 runs (1 earned) in 4.1 Innings against the A’s. Long time watchers of the Sox know this team can struggle against pitchers they see for the first time. This could be a very interesting match-up, because Nathan Eovaldi went 2-6 with a 5.14 ERA on the road last year.

Chris Sale had an insane .766 WHIP on the road last year (just another Bugs Bunny number from 2018), going 8-2 in those situations. But the most important number will be his average fastball velocity. A low 90s number means he’s on track, high 90’s (on average) means there isn’t a plan for his long term health, 80s may signal shoulder weakness.

J.D. Martinez has 2 Home Runs and hit .384 against the three Mariners starters he’s seen.

Edwin Encarnacion could be trouble. In 86 career at bats against the Red Sox starters, he’s hit .314 with 6 Home Runs and 17 RBI.

What To Watch For

The Bullpen: Alex Cora told us he would reveal the closer when the situation presented itself in the regular season. Will we see Brasier in the 8th, Barnes in the 9th? Will Cora deploy the bullpen based purely on match-ups regardless of the inning? We should know a lot more after this series.

Sam Travis: With Steve Pearce down, Sam Travis gets to face left-handed starters in the early part of the season. If he performs well with this chance he could guarantee a lot more playing time throughout the season. He’ll face three left handed starters in this series. He only hit .244 in Spring Training so he’ll have to pick it up quickly.

Expectations

The Sox went 4-3 against the surprisingly competitive Mariners last year. Since then the M’s have traded Robinson Cano, Jean Seguara, Edwin Diaz, and James Paxton. They also lost Nelson Cruz to free agency. That would be their best everyday players, their Closer, and their Ace. They’ve brought in replacements Edwin Encarnacion, Yusei Kikuchi and Hunter Strickland, but that’s a big step down. They’re riding high and feeling confident after sweeping the As 2 – 0 in Japan.

The biggest question for the Red Sox is how they will play coming off winning the World Series in 2018. Going on the road is never easy, but the Sox are still a juggernaut and should win three of these games at least. It feels like the team wants to make a statement. A split will be a disappointment.

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Review – Alex Cora: The Making Of A Champion

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Last night on the MLB Network they ran their MLB Network Presents series Alex Cora: The Making of a Champion. It was an in depth and poignant piece on our manager, a tremendous watch. The story starts and ends from his home town of Caguas Puerto Rico, from his childhood straight through to his current place as the first Big League manager from Puerto Rico. Oh, and through that incredible Red Sox season in 2018. Here are some highlights:

Heartbreak at home

Screengrab from MLB Network

Is pain a friend of yours? Have you suffered heartbreak and loss? Alex Cora is shoulder to shoulder with you. Several times he speaks about losing his Father when he was 13 years old, and how that has shaped him. Seeing him well up while talking about looking at the family seats in Dodger Stadium during the World Series and wishing his Dad was there is tough.

On the other hand: Seeing him handing out supplies in Caguas at the beginning of the story, then celebrating with the World Series trophy at the end, is incredibly uplifting. His love for his homeland is so familiar to our love for our cities and towns here in New England. There’s a fierce loyalty that speaks the same language.

And the family bond is a beautiful thing. I mean who wouldn’t want a Mother like this:

Screengrab from MLB Network

Or a Brother like this:

Screengrab from MLB Network

What He Took From The Astros

Cora talks about the teamwork throughout all departments in the Houston organization as a valuable lesson. And of course the analytics that he learned as well. But it was something that he was aloud to do, not necessarily told to do, that unlocked things for him.

He talks about AJ Hinch letting him be close to the players. Carlos Beltran is one of Alex’s good friends, and it appears he uses that relationship as a basis for being close with all the players. Tom Verducci, who is excellent as the interviewer, mentions that it is almost taboo for the manager to be close to the players in the Majors. So he asks Cora more about his philosophy on this topic. Here is Alex Cora’s response:

“So I was like, you know what? Why not? Why not be close to them (the players)? At the end of the day they know that there’s (going) to be tough decisions – Hanley Ramirez – but at the same time they understand that we can be close. But there’s some respect. I respect them as players, that’s the most important thing. And then obviously they respect me as a manager.”

Alex Cora on having close relationships with his ball players

It is these relationships that allow Cora to be such an exceptional manager. Yes, he has the 14 year big league career, and the analytics and incredible baseball knowledge. But the trust he engenders from the players allow him to have such incredible buy in from stubborn players like Mookie Betts, and change things on the fly and create perfect buttons to push. And that trust grows exponentially because of those close relationships.

Of course, he learned some of that from this guy too:

Screengrab from MLB Network

The Nathan Eovaldi Moment

Screengrab from MLB Network

Words don’t do this part justice. It’s a must see. The Red Sox felt that had won game three in LA, not lost an epic heartbreaker. Alex Cora was a huge part of that.

The Red Sox Are In Great Hands

Alex Cora is already thinking about how to follow up after a once in a lifetime experience. He knows things have to be different, and lucky for him, he knows someone with a lot of experience in this area:

Screengrab from MLB Network

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Red Sox Hot Stove And Related News

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The Red Sox Hot Stove has burned out.  Dave Dombrowski recently noted that the free-agent market has slowed down significantly the past two years.  He’s in favor of a free-agency deadline of some sort to spurn action.  Dave Dombrowski is right.  With that in mind, here is some recent interesting MLB news, and how it affects the Red Sox.

Red Sox Transactions

You are forgiven if unfamiliar with recent Red Sox transactions Gorkys Hernandez and Zach Putnam.

Hernandez is a 30 year old outfielder.  He played 142 games last year with the San Francisco Giants.  That was the most games he has played in a year in his career.  He hit .234 with a .676 OPS last year.

Putnam is a 31 year old reliever.  He saved 6 games with a 1.98 ERA four years ago for the White Sox.  Last year he got into 7 games for a total of 8.2 innings.  Yes, he had a 1.04 ERA, but his injuries have limited him to 32 games in relief over the past two years.

These guys are AAA roster filler.  They’re just as likely to spend the year in AAA, or be injured, as they are to make any kind of impact on the Red Sox this year.

That being said, at least the Sox signed Eovaldi, not exactly a pillar of consistency himself.  Here are some other teams making moves.

Starting Pitchers

Matt Harvey got a one-year 11 million, with $3 million incentives, from the Angels.  Lance Lynn signed a three-year $30 Million deal with the Rangers.  Harvey, formally the Dark Knight of the Mets, went 7-7 with a 4.50 ERA for the Reds last year.  Lance Lynn went 10-10 between the Twins and Yankees, with a 4.77 ERA.

There are some making the argument the Red Sox overpaid for Eovaldi based on these deals.  Neither Harvey nor Lynn had a three week stretch like Eovaldi showed in the Postseason.  Time will tell, but Harvey has looked cooked, and Lynn in decline.  Starting pitching is expensive.

The Runnin’ Royals

Remember when Billy Hamilton was the next big thing?  Way back in 2013 he was a highly touted prospect.  He got a cup of coffee with the Reds that year, and flashed a .902 OPS in 13 games.  People thought he would hit a ton of doubles, steal 80 bags a year, and be a gold glover.  Since then he has lead the the league in one thing: caught stealing.  He’s managed 277 steals, but a lowly .631 OPS, in his career so far.  And he’s not sniffing gold glove caliber defense.

All through the mid to late 90s, and the first leg of the this Century’s Red Sox Championship teams, the Royal’s Kauffman Stadium was a house of horrors for the Sox.  But considering the arguments for the Royals moves include phrases like “…may not produce much in the way of offense…”, it’s safe to say the Royals won’t be much of the threat to the Sox, or any other opponent, in 2019.

Oh Those Mets

Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen, with a name right out of The Sound Of Music, is showing why there was hope he could be had in a deal for Noah Syndergaard.  The Mets just gave Wilson Ramos a 2-year $19 million deal.  The 30 year old has two All Star nods, including last year.  But after being a stalwart for the Phillies and Nationals for several years, he’s been getting nicked up a little more each year.

He missed the All Star game last year with a hamstring injury from running the bases.  Catchers, for the most part, do not get better after 30.  Maybe if Christian Vazguez was 30 and injury prone, instead of 27 and coming off a great postseason, the Mets would’ve wanted him.  $9.5 million a year for Ramos is another head-scratching move.

A Dearth Of Big Name Deals

La Stella, Torreyes and Descalso.  Now there’s some big time talent, so exciting!  Can we get a Marwin Gonzalez deal at the very least?

How About A Former Big Name?

The artist formally known as Tulo is causing a stir.  This five-time All Star is so bad, the Blue Jays paid $38 million to release him last week.  That’s Pablo ‘Panda’ Sandoval territory.  Now a third of all teams are clambering to overpay him.

Let’s a hope an AL East team grabs him, so Red Sox pitching can rack up more strikeouts.

Hope, In This Season Of Hope

The tails of Yasiel Puig and Rusney Castillo, and all the Cuban defectors, are harrowing stories of heartbreak and despair.  Three cheers for MLB, trying to make this a better process.

Can You Imagine This In The Winter Of 2004?

I’m pretty sure the excitement was at a Fever Pitch in the early winter of 2004.  This team just put down a historic run to a World Championship.  The Red Sox raised ticket prices in advance of putting them on sale.  Of course, marketing is important for any organization.  But to not be mostly sold out at this point is a part of the problem Dave Dombrowski pointed out.  There is a distinct lack of buzz out there.

How To Be A Great Friend

https://twitter.com/RockWalkLondon/status/1074914135048159233

Happy belated Birthday to Keith Richards, who recently turned 75.  He showed us all how to stand up for our friends.

May we all be there for each other in the coming year.

 

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MLB Winter Meetings Wrap-Up

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The 2018 Baseball Winter Meetings have ended.  Here is a Red Sox focused roundup, and other related notes.

Rule Changes

Before the meetings, there was a lot of buzz about a pitch clock to speed up the game.  Once the meetings began it was all about The Shift.

https://twitter.com/megrowler/status/1073012029437296640

2018 resulted in a league wide .248 batting average, the lowest since 1972.  Singles are also in a five years decline.  Apparently, according to Jason Stark of the Athletic, the Commissioner, owners, batters, and pitchers are all for shift reform.

Of course there’s backlash.  People are decrying unintended consequences.  The debate rages on.

Eovaldi’s Back

The Red Sox led off the Winter Meetings by agreeing with Nathan Eovaldi for 4 years and $67.5 Million.  It seemed like a reasonable deal at the time.  Little did we know something like this would happen, seemingly within hours of the signing becoming official:

The Red Sox Crying Poor Mouth

https://twitter.com/SportsRaid365/status/1072984889681698817

Could this be true?

It seems incredible, with the Red Sox coming off a World Series title and raising ticket prices, that they need to clear salary space.  Dave Dombrowski threw some cold water on this story, but didn’t deny it.

A Red Sox Bullpen In Flux

Early this morning, new broke that Fightin’ Joe Kelly is going west.

Kelly was one of the stalwarts of a transformed bullpen, that turned into a bunch of vintage Ecks, in the 2018 playoffs.  With Kelly gone, could a reunion that seemed impossible happen?

It seems incredible, with reports of Kimbrel seeking a six-year deal for nine figures, that he could come back.  Apparently, the Red Sox are playing chicken and waiting for the price to come down.

Other than Kelly and Jeurys Familia, more on him in a minute, the reliever market has been quiet.  The Sox probably need two more relievers this off-season.

2019 Lineup Changes

Mookie has been known to resist moving out of the leadoff spot, and he can be stubborn, so Cora is planting the seed early.

It makes sense to move the more powerful Betts behind Benintendi.  More RBIs for Mookie, a two-three of Mookie and JD is pretty formidable.  This will lead to a right handed heavy 2-3-4, with Xander behind JD Martinez or vice versa.

Not every lineup can have Papi and Manny back to back.

Too Many Catchers

The Red Sox having one too many catchers has been an open question for some time.  Alex Cora spoke about the possibility of a trade at the Winter Meetings:

The Winter Meetings were anti-climatic in terms of moves being made by the Red Sox.  But there was one team that lead off the Meetings with a bang:

The Mets Making Moves

They started by acquiring Cano and Diaz from the Mariners.  They ended the meetings by bringing back Jeurys Familia.

https://twitter.com/TheCouchGMs/status/1073202870646923264

The Red Sox have the assets to almost perfectly match up with the Mets.  If the Red Sox are truly considering moving Jackie Bradley, would the Mets consider a left handed bat in the outfield?  The Red Sox have extra catchers.

Noah Syndergaard is rumored to be available.  Stay tuned.

 

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Nathan Eovaldi Is Back

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The Red Sox have re-signed Nathan Eovaldi to a 4 year, $67.5 Million deal.  The postseason horse is back in the barn.  Because of the lack of home grown talent, and a shallow free agent pool, this was a move the Red Sox needed to make.

Overpaid?

Well respected and knowledgeable baseball minds are trumpeting how bad a deal this is.  To whit:

Framingham’s own Lou Merloni was on the airwaves of WEEI and NBCSN last night saying essentially the same thing.  Because of Eovaldi’s injury history, this is an over-pay.

It is true that Eovaldi has not been consistent in his career.  Therefore, the Red Sox could paying for only potential.  But where does this deal stack up against a different set of peers than the esteemed Mr. Massarotti put forth:

  • Yu Darvish $21 Million
  • Jeff Samardzija $18 Million
  • Hyun-Jin Ryu $17.9 Million
  • Nathan Eovaldi $16.875 Million
  • Mike Leake $16 Million
  • Wei-Yin Chen $16 Million
  • Rich Hill $16 Million

In this context, Eovaldi almost looks like a bargain.

October Performance

Songs have been sung about Eovaldi’s guts in Game 3 of the World Series alone, because these numbers are positively Schilling-esk:

22.1 Innings, 2-1 record, 15 Hits, 3 Walks, 16 Strikeouts, 1.61 ERA

He pitched in three of the five World Series games, and was the hard-luck looser in the longest game in World Series history.  Because of his 6 innings of extra innings work in Game 3, the bullpen was saved, as well as the other starters.  This ultimately resulted in a World Series Championship.

Nathan Eovaldi Is Necessary 

The Red Sox have almost no starting pitcher talent in the minor leagues.  Their best prospect, Jay Groome, underwent Tommy John Surgery in May of this year.  Beyond Groome, there is no one to speak of who could help the Red Sox in 2019.

If not Eovaldi, then what?  J.A. Happ: A 36 year old pitcher who pitched a grand total of 2 innings in the Yankees Game 1 loss to the Red Sox in the Divisional Round.  Dallas Keuchel: A 31 year old pitcher who has already had his best days.  Eovaldi’s best days are ahead.

Perhaps the Eovaldi signing leads to a bigger deal.  At the very least, the Red Sox have a solid #3 or #4 starter.  And he has the potential to be more, at a reasonable cost.

 

Get Noah Syndergaard On The Red Sox

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The Mets are a little off their rocker, the Winter Meetings are coming up, and the Cardinals have stolen some National League thunder with the Paul Goldschmidt trade.  Nathan Eovaldi is back!  Now is the time for the Red Sox to strike.  Bring Noah Syndergaard to Boston.  A quick reminder:

The Mets

The Mets are in win-now mode with their strange reliance on 36 year old, recently PED suspended, Robinson Cano.  They also got Edwin Diaz in the deal.  He’s a young closer who’s only done it in the relative obscurity of the Pacific Northwest.  Those guys are often inconsistent.  They’re also reportedly looking into trading for Corey Kluber, which is kind of nuts.  Kluber has been one of the best pitchers in baseball the last few years.  But the reason he’s available from the Indians is because he is 33 and on the verge of a big payday.  His contract escalates, from $10 million to $17.5 million and beyond, the next few years.

When news of a Syndergaard trade first surfaced, the Mets were said to be looking to upgrade their farm system with a trade.  And why wouldn’t they?  Syndergaard will be the best bargain Ace in the game the next few years.  His injuries are overblown and his September was one to remember.

But something happened on the road to a competitive team and stacked farm system.  Potential trades aren’t bearing the kind of fruit the Mets thought they would get.  Let’s take a deep dive on some rumored deals.

The Padres

The most recent rumor from the MLB Network was a package of Manny Margot, Austin Hedges, and Mackenzie Gore.

Margot, whom the Red Sox gave to the Padres in the Craig Kimbrel trade, has been a classic good defense, no-so-good offense, center fielder.  In 2017 he hit .263 with a .721 OPS.  In 2018, after the league had a look at him, he hit .245 with a .675 OPS.  Think Jackie Bradley Jr without the hot streaks and superior defense.

Austin Hedges is a catcher with slightly above average power, and little else.  In 2017 he hit .214 with a .660 OPS, 2018 it was .231/.711.

Mackenzie Gore is a highly rated young pitcher who gets a lot of strikeouts.  He also walks a lot of people.  Because of this, he had a middling 4.45 ERA in single A ball last year.

The Rockies

The Rockies have a lot of young pitching.  It may be just for show, but Assistant GM Zack Rosenthal told the MLB Network on Tuesday 12/4 that the Rockies are built on that young pitching and defense.  This is a team that hits missile after missile into the glorious Rocky Mountain air.  The team is also about to spend a record amount in arbitration on MVP candidate Nolan Arenado.  Arenado is not making that kind of money for his gold glove defense at third base.  He hit .297 with 36 Home Runs last year.

So what does this mean?  The Rockies may be deluding themselves into thinking their MVP candidates don’t matter and it’s all about the pitching.  More likely, they’re negotiating in the media to reduce their arbitration cases with their hitters.  But because of the money going to their hitters, they’re likely to keep the young starters they have.  The Red Sox don’t have that kind of young pitching.

The Red Sox

Rafael Devers is better than anyone the Padres or Rockies can or will throw at the Mets.

Margot is 24, Hedges is 26.  Devers is still the tender age of 22.  This precious youngster hit .284 with 10 home runs and a .819 OPS in part time play as a 20 year old in 2017, then .240 with 21 home runs and a .731 OPS last year.  Furthermore, Devers  hit .311 in the Postseason over his first 2 years, including 3 home runs and a .884 OPS in 45 at bats.

That’s special.  But he’s no Tony Conigliaro.  The beloved Tony C hit .290 with 24 home runs and an .883 OPS as a 19 year old, then .269 with 32 home runs and an .850 OPS as a 20 year old, then .265 with 28 home runs and an .817 OPS as a 21 year old.

Devers will be worth holding on to, but not transcendent.  That is why he’s worth giving up for the rare young, cost controlled monster, like Noah Syndergaard, who becomes available.

What’s more, the Mets need a catcher.  The Red Sox have a plethora.  Putting Christian Vazquez, whose Postseason success means his value may never be higher, in a trade would be ideal.  But the Sox could throw in Blake Swihart instead.  A combo of either Swihart or Vazquez, with Sandy Leon as backup, would be more than fine for the 2019 Red Sox.

If the Mets wants minor leaguers, give them some.  The Red Sox have a weak system, but Devers is younger than most of the highly touted minor leaguers in the game.  It would take less top young talent than some other teams.

Eovaldi Frees Things Up

And now that Nathan Eovaldi is back, the Sox are freed up to include Eduardo Rodriguez in the deal if they need to.  This gives the Red Sox more options.  They don’t need to give the Mets everything, but widens the possibilities of how a trade could look.

Syndergaard Solves The Contract Crunch

At the end of 2019 the Sox will have some choices to make.  Chris Sale, Rick Porcello, and Xander Bogaerts become free agents at that time.  Nathan Eovaldi’s contract is reported to be in the $17 million a year range.  All three of those other guys will cost more than that.

Then there is JD Martinez’s opt out.  He’s currently being paid $23.75 Million.   With his performance he will definitely be looking for a raise starting in 2020.

Noah Syndergaard is in arbitration.  He made $2.975 Million last year and, his projected earnings in 2019 are $5.9 Million.  If he becomes a top 10 starting pitcher in 2019, watch out.  Thor has three years of control left in arbitration.  He won’t approach $20 million in salary until 2021 at the earliest.

If Syndergaard is in Boston, there’s a lot more money for the rest of the team.

Time To Act

There are reports of the Mets talking with the Marlins about JT Realmuto.  They are itching to trade.  The competition for Syndergaard is falling away.  The Red Sox can solve the Mets catching problems.  Fire up the Knights of Cydonia and let’s rock this trade Dave Dombrowski.