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Brady Theory’s Debunked With Facts-Part 1

Tom Brady theory’s or “myths” claiming he’s not a great QB make me laugh, so I’ve compiled the first edition of Tom vs Truth. I am a fan, yet I am using facts to end these ridiculous claims.

They Love you Until they Don’t

Once upon a time Tom Brady was America’s golden child, beating the greatest show on turf put him on the map. Fast forward to the present day and many things have changed. Six Super Bowl wins, multiple MVPs and a supermodel wife has had the country turned against the GOAT. Let’s start with these theory’s about TB12.

“Tom Is A Product of the Patriots System”

Haters across the country can’t stop calling Brady a system QB. While every team has a system, and 3/4s of the teams using the same style. Why aren’t they playing in February? The answer is Tom Brady. We know his skill, so let’s look deeper. Brady has had numerous Offensive Coordinators. In the beginning it was Charlie Weiss. Charlie’s offenses in NY and NE before Tom Brady were ranked 12th, 5th, 19th and 25th. Compare those numbers with a very green, backup QB in Tom Brady. Charlie’s 4 years with Tom his offenses ranked 6th, 10th, 12th and 4th. This is what I call the Brady difference. Weiss left after 4 years with Brady to coach Notre Dame, ending with a record of 41-49.

McDaniels Makes Brady

Josh McDaniels makes Tom Brady Great. Well no, not at all. He has had success with Tom just like Weiss, but without Brady his numbers declined drastically. Working with Brady, Josh McDaniels offenses have been incredible. The worst those two finished was 10th in points and 11th in yards. Every other season with Brady, New England’s Offense was ranked top 3 in points, with one top 5 finish. McDaniels in St.Louis and Denver running the same system, ranked 20th, 19th and dead last at 32nd. (Brady Difference.)

Bill O’Brien in 2011 must’ve been the reason Brady and the offense was 3rd in points scored right? I don’t think so, since leaving the Pats O’Brien’s offenses in points scored rank 14th, 21st, 28th, 17th and 11th. Quite the drop off without Brady under Center. So if you say “System QB”, I say it’s the Brady difference.

Well What About Bill Belichick? “He makes Tom Brady”

New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick stands alone as the greatest HC, he must be why Brady’s so great

First let me say that while Bill is the best coach of all time, that didn’t really start until Brady came into the mix. In Cleveland Bill went 35-55, along with 5-11 his first year in NE without Tom. There’s that Tom Brady difference again.

2008 Same Team No Brady

But Matt Cassel went 11-5 when Brady was hurt

This argument often made by haters really grinds my gears: “If Brady is so good then how did Matt Cassel go 11-5?”

Well let’s break it down. The 2007 and 2008 teams had the same roster minus Donte Stallworth on offense. In 2007 Tom Brady and his offense set records for TDs, Rec TDs and points scored. The team went 18-0 only to lose the SB just missing the perfect season. The 2007 offense with Tom had a 315 point differential, compared to Cassel’s team dropping 214 points all the way down to a 101 point differential. So the same team, with different QBs went from the best offense ever, to average and missing the playoffs.

2007 Brady- 4,806 yards, 50 TD/8 INTs with a 117 Passer rating along with MVP honors.

2008 Cassel- 3,693 yards, 21 TD/11 INTs with an 89 passer rating with the same offense. (Brady Difference)

In 2010 Matt Cassel made the playoffs and the Pro Bowl with KC. He was no stiff, throwing 27 TDs to just 7 INTs, which was the second best ratio in the league that year. Who could’ve been number 1 I wonder? Tom Brady of course, as he won the only unanimous MVP in league history. Sorry to say again but the Brady Difference is quite obvious in this popular theory among haters.

“Tom Isn’t Good without a Great Defense”

The Patriots had a very good defense in Tom’s early years, and certainly was a huge factor in the first 3 Super Bowls. People say Brady was carried by his defenses, which is not the case. From 2001-2004, with Brady coming in as a backup, he put together 10 4th quarter comebacks and 15 game winning drives. The numbers seem to show he did his part and then some, but that’s not what the haters want you to think.

Brady led the NFL in TD passes in 2002, so it’s not a reach at all to say the Patriots may have not won those Super Bowls without Tom Brady. For example, in Super Bowl 38 the Pats defense gave up 29 points to the Panthers. A young QB named Tom Brady going up against a fierce defense threw for 354 yards, 3 TDs and his second clutch SB game winning drive. Without Brady things could’ve been a lot different that day.

Jumping ahead to Patriots Defenses that weren’t as talented. The four year stretch from 2010-2013, New England’s defense was never better than 25th in total yards allowed. But again Brady in 2010 won MVP and got the #1 seed. 2011 the Pats were back in the Super Bowl despite being 31st in yards against, and that’s due to Tom Brady. In 2012 and 2013, Brady and the Pats went back to the AFC Championship but lost. Some people think going as far as possible in sports and losing is worse than not making the championship game at all. Ridiculous.

In 2017 the defense was ranked 29th. Brady and the offense once again were back in the Super Bowl. Bill Belichick shocked Pats nation by benching Malcolm Butler. The defense got shredded by a backup QB, giving up 41 points. Even in defeat Brady put up historic numbers, throwing for 505 yards with 3 TDs with no INTs.

My conclusion on this theory about his Defenses is that Brady always has done his part to win games and make it to the AFC Championship or Super Bowl. I don’t see him being carried by anything, like the haters do. Another interesting stat: In 17 seasons the Pats Defense was statistically better than the offense only 3 times. In 9 of those 17 seasons with Brady as the starter, the defense was ranked 20th or worse in yards allowed. Defensive “myth” shut down with facts.

“Joe Montana Never Lost in the Super Bowl”

Key Number here is 4

The debate over Montana and Brady has many factors. Joe Montana was the Greatest ever in my eyes, up until Brady’s comeback in Super Bowl 49 against the Seahawks. Since Brady tied Montana with 4 Super Bowl wins, he has gone to 3 straight Super Bowls and won 2. The real crime here is the loss to the eagles. Brady had the best Super Bowl performance of all time.

Some people say Brady can’t be better than Montana because Joe cool never lost in his 4 chances. The fact of the matter is that every athlete would tell you getting to the Championship and losing is better than not making it there at all. As we all know, Brady’s been to 9 Super Bowls with 6 wins. Let’s not forget the amount of Hall Of Fame players Montana had on both sides of the ball. He also had a coach in Bill Walsh who came up with an offense no one had ever seen before. It took years for teams to adjust to this new style of football, a great coach and system that Montana thrived in.

Brady on the other hand did not, and still doesn’t have anywhere close to the number of Hall Of Fame players Joe had. The comebacks alone in Super Bowls favor Brady, having 6 in 6 wins. And did his part in the losses too, by getting the lead, only for the defense to break at the end.

Montana has been bounced twice in the divisional round, twice in the Wild Card and three times in the NFC Championship. Montana in 11 seasons has gone one and done in the playoffs 4 times.

The GOAT Tom Brady in 16 playoff runs is 13-2 in the divisional round, 2-1 in the WC round and 9-4 in the AFC Championship. Brady in 16 seasons has gone one and done just twice in the playoffs.

Is 4-0 better than 6-3 in the Super Bowl? If you’ve never played sports then maybe you’d say yes. The ultimate goal of any athlete is to go as far as you can. That is something Brady’s done better than Montana. Doing so with less talent, an offense that has been seen before (unlike the 49ers), all while getting better with age. Brady wins this round, the numbers don’t lie.

“Montana Played in a Tougher and Better Era”

Again, not taking anything away from Joe Montana, I’m just telling it how it is. Sure the rules for QBs have changed over the years, but Brady played in a tough era of football himself. Rule changes to help offenses didn’t make an ounce of a difference until 2011. QB numbers didn’t go up or benefit Brady for an entire decade. From 2000-2011 only two players had a season with great numbers, Brady in 2007 and Manning in 2004. Since 2011 pretty much every QBs numbers are inflated like never before.

Defining the toughness of different eras contains a few different things:

Free Agency -Montana played when teams didn’t change and Hall Of Fame players typically stayed together. Brady has had a revolving door of players throughout his entire career, mostly castaways who were turned into Champions.

Defensive players -Tom Brady has played and shredded some of the best defenders and all time defensive units and coaches. The 2000 Steelers and Ravens, 2003 Buccaneers, The LOB Seahawks were no match in the Super Bowl, 2015 Broncos, 2017 Jags, the two Giants Super Bowl teams and the 2018 Rams. Just think of the players on those teams, and how if it weren’t for Brady most of them would have Super Bowl rings.

Geography – Joe Montana Played in a sunny warm climate, while Brady’s been playing in the Northeast. Freezing temperatures, snow and rain in a division where he plays in Boston and New York. No problem for #12.

This is the first of my 3 part Myth Busting Brady Hate. Next up will be topics like “The AFC Least”, “Deflategate, “Brady has no records” and my personal favorite: QBs like Rodgers, Marino, Brees and Manning being on Tom Brady’s level. Starting to feel like I’m writing a book, so these next topics plus more will be coming out soon. Hope you Pats fans can use some of these facts when arguing with Brady hating friends.

What to expect from Malcolm Butler and Dion Lewis

Sunday the Patriots will be facing four former teammates when they kick off in Tennessee. Five counting head coach Mike Vrabel.

Along with former Patriots scout Jon Robinson, Tennessee certainly has some inside information. Although, a lot has changed in New England since then. Here are two players who were on the roster last year, that may or may not do some damage come Sunday.

Dion Lewis Is Still Dion Lewis

Dion Lewis will look to have a big game Sunday against his old team

Courtesy of the AP

Dion Lewis played 3 seasons for New England (2015 through 2017) and his best year was in 2017. As a Titan Lewis has shared the backfield with Derrick Henry, but as of late Henry’s touches have fallen. Dion showed Patriots fans last year that he can be a three down back despite his size.

This year as a Titan Dion Lewis has mainly been more of a receiving threat, and through eight games has already passed his 2017 season in New England.

Last year as a Patriots Lewis had 32 receptions on 33 targets with 214 yards. Through eight games with the Titans he has 33 receptions on 37 targets for 259 yards. Brian Flores and Bill Belichick are going to have to take Lewis out of Sunday’s game, as he is their best offensive weapon. New England needs to make tackles and try to limit Lewis’s receptions.

Dion Lewis Predicts a Victory on Sunday

Dion Lewis predicts a Titans Win

Only a year has passed since Dion dawned the Patriots uniform, so it’s easy to remember that he can also be very dangerous running the ball. Through 8 weeks Lewis leads the NFL in percentage of runs with a broken tackle at 33.0%.

Dion Did You Have to Say That?

Lewis created some bulletin board material while talking about his old teammates. Saying “I don’t talk to nobody before the game,” “I don’t anticipate going out there pregame and hugging and all that.” “I’ll talk to them after the game, after we beat them.” I’m sure as usual the Patriots will use his words as motivation. Did Dion learn anything about teams verbally attacking the Patriots? Doesn’t look like it, and he will most likely be eating those words after the game.

Malcolm Butler Has Had This Game Circled For A Long Time

Grass is not greener in Tennessee

Butler gets burned by Amari Cooper

Malcolm Butler has had a horrible start to the 2018 season. Before I continue on I would like to say that Butler will always be a Patriots legend to me.

Butler left New England signing with the Titans for a whopping 5 year $61.25 Million contract, with $30 million guaranteed. Through 8 weeks Tennessee has drawn the short end of that deal as Butler is statistically the worst CB in the NFL. Here are some numbers that you know Bill must be smiling about, all of which are the worst in the NFL.

Through 8 games this season Butler has allowed 7 TD’s which is half of the entire team’s total. He’s also given up 618 yards on 39 receptions, both worst in the NFL.

Malcolm is playing for the number one defense in the league, yet he’s ranked as the worst CB. Against Dallas he gave up both TD’s in a win on Monday night. When asked about going up against NE he said “It’s just a game, I know I used to play for New England and all of that.” “I’m not over hyped, I’m not very pumped.” “It’s just another game” he says, but I have a sneaky feeling that Butler will be over hyped, and very pumped despite what he says before the game.

Malcolm Butler

Courtesy of NBC Sports

He’s a very emotional player, Tom knows this as we all do. So expect whoever our old friend Butler is covering to have a huge game. Head Coach Mike Vrabel said that he’s not ready to replace Butler yet and will continue to start him.

One thing is for sure, Malcolm Butler wants to have the game of his life against Bill Belichick, and personally I don’t blame him. Unfortunately for Butler he will be too amped up, trying to make plays and that is a recipe for disaster against Brady.

(SB49 #21) “Malcolm Go!” Should never be forgotten.

Jason McCourty Emerging As One Of New England’s top Defenders

J-Mac Was No Lock To Even Make This Team

When Jason McCourty came to New England from Cleveland, Belichick brought him in to see what he had left. After OTA’s and the Preseason, McCourty was no lock to make this team, and he knew it. He admitted it after Thursday’s Win. Halfway through camp, Belichick wanted to see what he could do at safety. Most would say that after the last preseason game things weren’t looking great for the veteran.

Twin Power?

Jason McCourty Playing great so far

Making The Most Of His Opportunity

Eric Rowe’s injury opened the door for Jason McCourty, from a bubble guy to one of the Patriot’s best defenders. He contributed to the win over the colts in a big way. Andrew Luck targeted McCourty 10 times with J-Mac allowing just 44 yards. Luck had a measly 14.2 rating throwing at the veteran.

McCourty’s been stellar through five games on the field, He’s only allowed 13 receptions on 26 targets, for just 116 yards on the year. His play isn’t going unnoticed either, as Pro Football Focus has him as the 4th ranked cornerback.

The Patriots have young and hungry cornerbacks looking to make a name for themselves. For now, McCourty’s the guy moving forward.

J-Mac Plays Hard And Studies Hard

Jason is intelligent, which is no surprise after watching his twin brother Devin for years. J-Mac can play both cornerback and safety. He put the work in to ensure his spot on the Patriots. His brother Devin started out playing cornerback and was named to the Pro Bowl his first year. After a good season at cornerback, Devin moved to Safety. Sound familiar?

Jason having the opportunity to play alongside his twin has certainly helped him pick up the playbook, and the culture in New England. Coming from the Browns, Jason is now giving passionate pregame speeches to the defense, and he is loving every minute of being a Patriot. His passion and appreciation for winning came out after the win Thursday night. Cameras picked up J-Mac running around the locker room yelling about winning, smiling ear to ear.

Jason McCourty is a big hit with the coaches

Jason McCourty is just happy playing for New England

Coming from an organization that went winless last year, Jason said he doesn’t care what position he plays. The scene in the locker room Thursday night said it all. “I’ve done a lot of losing, I like this!” Now he’s on a team that will use him to the best of his abilities, and the coaching staff loves him.

McCourty has revived his career this season. hH’s not just one of the best defenders on the Patriots, he’s a top 5 cornerback in the NFL. Based on his attitude and work ethic, I don’t see why his play should slow down anytime soon. Cornerback or Safety it doesn’t matter to Jason. More importantly, the coaching staff has confidence in him. He will continue to learn to be even more versatile. A move that was questioned in the offseason is paying off for the team and for Jason McCourty.

 

New England’s Defensive State Ahead of the 2018 Off-Season

In team sports, you often hear, “You win as a team and you lose as a team”. Rarely will you find a coach or staff that believes otherwise. Bill Belichick and his staff do not sway away from this mentality.

With that being said, it may not always be true.

The New England defense allowed over 538 yards on the grandest stage of them all. Philadelphia was an astounding 10-16 on third down conversions, 2-2 on fourth down conversions, and didn’t allow a sack.

This is not to take away from a brilliant performance from the Super Bowl MVP, Nick Foles, but the Patriots defense was non-existent Sunday night.  

Aside from Stephon Gilmore, who was virtually lock-down, the Patriots’ secondary got scorched. Jordan Richards looked lost on numerous occasions. One of those included a key third down where he let up a 55-yard play to put the Eagles in scoring position. Eric Rowe allowed over 80-yards in coverage as well as a touchdown while serving as New England’s second corner… We won’t get into that.

If you haven’t figured out how to say goodbye to Malcolm Butler yet, I suggest reading this article.

The defensive-front couldn’t sustain consistent pressure on Nick Foles. Foles wasn’t pressured on play action, three step drops, five step drops, and RPO’s. In other words: HE WAS NEVER PRESSURED. 

A combined effort highlighted by LeGarrette Blount and Jay Ajayi rushed for over 160-yards, a touchdown, and six first downs. Blount and Ajayi both gashed the Patriots with carries of over 25-yards.

The Patriots offense, however, was amazing.

Tom Brady, for the second straight Super Bowl, threw for over 500-yards. He tossed three touchdown passes and zero interceptions. All after one of his best targets, Brandin Cooks, left the game due to a head injury early on.

Not counting the 34-second drive to end the first half, Tom Brady led the Patriots on four straight drives of over seventy-five yards or more… each resulting in touchdowns. This strand ended with a beautiful strip-sack by Brandon Graham late in the fourth quarter.

CONCLUSION

After reviewing these points, while it may be a team effort, the defense lost New England the Super Bowl.

While there certainly are a few question marks on offense for New England, there is much more to be happy about. Among the uncertainties are Nate Solder, Danny Amendola, and Dion Lewis’ expiring contracts.

While Gronkowski has had his share of injuries, I am calling his bluff on potential retirement. Next season, health providing, the Patriots offense will have Cooks, Gronkowski, Edelman, and Hogan all at once. Also we can’t forget about the return of Malcolm Mitchell. I am not concerned about the offense.

The defense, however, will require much change.

Cornerback

During the Super Bowl, fans got to see a sneak peek of New England’s secondary without Malcolm Butler and no additions. Newsflash: IT WAS ATROCIOUS.

Outside of miscommunication against the Chiefs and Panthers, and poor performances against the Bills once, and the Steelers, Stephon Gilmore was great this season. It now seems clear to all why New England gave him ‘lock-down cornerback’ money.

PFF gave Stephon Gilmore an 89.1 grade for the season, ranking him the 8th best cornerback in the league.

Stephon Gilmore Defense

According to Jeff Howe of the Boston Herald, through the entire playoffs, Stephon Gilmore allowed 4-15 completed passes for 55-yards, with 6 pass breakups.

The New England Patriots have their clear-cut #1 cornerback for the future.

Devin McCourty is still playing great ball for New England, and position-mate Duron Harmon has been key as well.

For this last season, both Devin McCourty and Duron Harmon were ranked top-10 out of all free-safeties by Bleacher Report.

Patrick Chung, strong-safety, will also likely be keeping his starting job in New England next season. One could argue that Chung deserved Pro-Bowl honors this year. Chung’s ability to defend tight ends and play at the line of scrimmage makes him vital in New England.

CORNERBACK HELP FROM WITHIN

Cyrus Jones, former second round pick, looks to return from a torn ACL and compete for a job next season. Jones was far from a fan favorite a season ago after muffing multiple punts. The guy damn-near got booed out of Foxborough. Players like Edelman coming to his defense and touting his work ethic shouldn’t go unnoticed. How Bill views Cyrus’ potential could sway the Patriots’ search for a nickel cornerback.

Cyrus Jones Defense

While it may be hard to envision this right now, I would not be all that surprised to see Eric Rowe starting across from Gilmore next season. Most of Rowe’s 2017-2018 season was lost to injuries. Last season, as well as when he was healthy towards the end of this regular season, he looked like the guy to fill Butler’s shoes. There is no denying that Rowe started the Super Bowl on the wrong foot, but he is a good player. Whether he is #2 cornerback material is up to Bill.

The obvious need in this secondary is at the #2 cornerback position.  Whether the improvements come from in-house, or not, remains to be seen.

While improvements at the cornerback position will be vital going forward, if the front seven continues to struggle at getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks, the talent level in the secondary won’t matter a bit.

Pass Rush

Looking back, the eight-sack performance against the Tennessee Titans seems to be nothing more than an anomaly. The Patriots’ group of pass-rushers are very young, headlined by the leader of the group, Trey Flowers, and his sidekick, Deatrich Wise. Both having played their college ball at Arkansas, seem to be the head of the pack going forward for New England.

Defense Deatrich Wise and Trey Flowers

Trey Flowers proved that it is possible to have a good season as a pass rusher with low sack numbers, totaling at 6.5. With that being said, he led the team in that category, which is not close to the number you want your leading sack artist to have.

Things didn’t go as planned with the edge rushers for New England this season. Rob Ninkovich retired shortly before the season started, leaving a hole in leadership and skill level.

Also last off-season, the Patriots acquired former Super Bowl hero, Kony Ealy, from the Panthers. Needless to say, his time in Foxborough was short-lived.

Going into this offseason, there are improvements to be made with the pass rush, some may argue that it is the biggest area of need for New England.

I would expect New England to use one of their three picks in the first two rounds of the draft on pass rush. Whether that be defensive-end, or a 3-4 pass rush linebacker. This unit as a whole has struggled enough to where I wouldn’t be surprised if New England spent a decent penny in free agency to sure it up.

PASS RUSH HELP FROM WITHIN

Also what should be noted is the Patriots’ first draft choice last year, Derek Rivers, missed all of this season with a torn ACL.

Derek Rivers Defense

Derek Rivers, a pass rush specialist in college, stands at 6-foot-4, 245-pounds. In four college seasons, Rivers compiled a total of 37.5-sacks. Having been the team’s first selection in the draft, expect Rivers to be some much needed help from within.

An obvious addition to multiple phases of the front-seven, is the return of Donta Hightower. Donta is without a doubt one of the NFL’s best all-around linebackers. His ability to play in coverage, manage the defense, and rush the passer was surely missed this season.

The everlasting issue with Hightower is his inability to play a full season. The key with Hightower is to not rely on him so heavily early in the season to give him his rest. Honestly, just hope his injuries come early rather than late, and not season-ending. With hopeful thinking, having Donta Hightower back for the entirety of next season will greatly impact the pass rush.

Linebackers

Donta Hightower Defense

Continuing on with Dont’a Hightower: His impact on the linebacker core is unmatched. Dont’a takes pressure off of his teammates and does a great job at preventing any confusion. Having Dont’a back would be huge, but relying on his return is not something I recommend.

The Patriots made a great addition when bringing in Marquise Flowers, and the trade for Kyle Van Noy has been a complete success. That said, even with the Pro-Bowl caliber Hightower back, the linebacker position lacks depth. Specifically, they lack athletes at the linebacker position.

Too often, Patrick Chung has to take on a larger role than you would like him to because he is constantly moving down into the box in aid of the unathletic linebackers.

I don’t mean to tug on strings here, but the Patriots are in desperate need of a ‘Jamie Collins’ like linebacker. Someone with the speed to pick up wide receivers over the middle and can keep up with running-backs. The undersized linebacker who moves like a safety is exactly what you should expect the Patriots to be looking for from their first pick, to their last.

INTERIOR DEFENSIVE LINE

Other than maybe the safety position, interior defensive line may be the most solid group on defense. Led by the young defensive tackle out of Texas, Malcom Brown, this group can usually hold its own against most lines.

Malcom Brown Defense

Again, the return of a healthy Donta Hightower, even though he doesn’t play defensive line, will help this unit immensely. Donta’s ability to line up over the center and coordinate the young defensive linemen like Malcom Brown, Ricky Jean-Francois, and Adam Butler will help their growth. Another key kog in this unity is veteran, Lawrence Guy. Guy came in as a free agent from Baltimore and contributed a large amount over the second half of the season.

Once vital big-man, Alan Branch, was a healthy scratch for the entire playoffs thanks to the emergence of Jean-Francois and the steady play of Guy. I wouldn’t be all that surprised to see him become a cap-casualty.

The most action I expect from this group would be the Patriots picking up Malcom Brown’s fifth-year option. The young guys will continue to grow and improve here.

 

Whether it be at the #2 or #3 cornerback positions, pass rush, linebacker position… or all of the above: This defense needs to get better. A lot better.