Yesterday the New York Post’s Joel Sherman detailed how much money Mookie Betts has turned down in recent years. Mookie then gave an interview to Red Sox reporters this morning detailing how he loves it here, but will be going to free agency instead of signing a long-term deal. Cue the hang wringing across Red Sox Nation.
But the fact Mookie is going year to year for the next two years makes him the greatest value in the majors right now.
Current Contract
Betts and the Red Sox recently agreed on a $20 million contract for 2019. That set a record for a player who was subject to salary arbitration. There was speculation that Nolan Arenado would break that, before he signed an 8 year $260 Million contract instead.
Mookie has one more year of arbitration before hitting his goal of free agency. If he follows up 2018 with something similar in 2019 he’s going to set an all time record in arbitration that will be hard to beat. The Red Sox have Mookie under arbitration control for only this year and next. He will become a free agent after the 2020 season.
Historic Footing
In 2018 Mookie Betts had a 10.9 WAR according to Baseball Reference. That is 21st on the All Time list. Number one is Babe Ruth’s 1923 at 14.1, second is Ruth’s 1921 at 12.9. You get the picture. The only post 2000 seasons in front of Mookie’s are Barry Bonds in 2001 and 2002.
Value
A lot of uneasiness is coming from Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, and Nolan Arenado signing long term deals, while Mookie is refusing to. None of those players have a higher WAR season than Mookie has right now.
Currently teams are agreeing on 8 to 10 year contracts at $30 plus million dollars for the privilege of having those players on their teams. None of those guys, including Trout, has ever had a better season than Mookie. Trout is the only one with an argument. Harper’s best season was his 10 WAR season in 2015.
Again, the Red Sox are paying Mookie Betts $20 Million this year. If he is true to his word, he will not sign a long-term extension before hitting free agency.
Risk
How many long term contracts have ever worked out in the Major Leagues? Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Alex Rodriguez, Robinson Cano – these are cautionary tales. Yes, Harper and Machado, and Trout and Arenado to a lesser extent, are all younger that those other guys when they got those big contracts. But injuries, declining performance, bad team relationships, and PED use are among the many risks that come with long term deals.
The Red Sox have the luxury of the possibility of two more outstanding seasons from Mookie Betts at the shortest possible term. Yes, it would be painful to see him in another uniform. But the Red Sox cannot make him sign a contract.
It’s All Good
This is a reason for celebration Sox Nation, not doom. If the Red Sox win the World Series again in the next two years, then lose Mookie Betts to another team in free agency, that is a win.
And give it time. The Red Sox can never be counted out when it comes to paying out big contracts. The big payroll situations come at the end of 2019. They can meet any rivals head on when Mookie’s free agency hits after 2020.
With the baseball season arriving, our baseball writers have come together to predict the 2019 award winners. In this article we each choose the winner of the MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year and Manager of the Year Awards for the coming season. We will follow shortly with a second article predicting the division winners and postseason results for the coming season.
American League Most Valuable Player
Thom Howland: Jose Ramirez hit .270 last year with an unlucky 25% hit rate. With his top tier power, peak age, and a Cleveland team gunning for another AL Central crown, the time is ripe for his MVP closeup. Dark horse candidate – Jose Abreu
Scott Frizzell: It is just so hard to pick against Mike Trout. The new $430 million dollar man has finished in the top two every year of his career except one, when he finished fourth after missing six weeks of action. Dark horse candidate – Andrew Benintendi
John Principe: Coming off a year that didn’t end in him winning the MVP, I fully expect Mike Trout to again put up his insane numbers. He’s the closest thing in sports to a perennial lock, and is my pick to stay healthy and win his third MVP. Dark horse candidate – Matt Chapman
Ben Rolfe: Yes, it is the boring pick, but Mike Trout is so far above anyone else in baseball right now it is incredible. If we ignore his small rookie appearance then Trout’s average WAR is 9.2 per year and his numbers are something out of a video game. Dark horse candidate – Luke Voit
Mike Quilty: Mike Trout may be the favorite, but I think Alex Bregman will have a huge year for Houston.
Mike Trout is always a safe bet to be near the top.
National League Most Valuable Player
Thom Howland: Kris Bryant, the former MVP, is over the injuries that sapped his power last year. The Cubs are being counted out, and he will be at the center of their resurgence. Dark horse candidate – Ronald Acuna
Scott Frizzell: Paul Goldschmidt is leaving the desert for St. Louis this season, and I think he will put up his usual big numbers while helping lead the Cardinals back to the postseason for the first time since 2015. After a dreadful first two months last year, Goldy batted .330 with 26 home runs and a 1.022 OPS from June 1st on. Dark horse candidate – Ronald Acuna
John Principe: Bryce Harper is coming off an okay year, but a great contract, what’s in store for him? The new Philly slugger, to me, is poised to breakout again and have his best season since his MVP year in 2015. Look for Bryce to put up another season with an OPS over 1.000, carry his Phils to an NL East title, and win MVP while he’s at it. Dark horse candidate – Ronald Acuna
Ben Rolfe: Nolan Arenado is one of the best fielders at his position and he hits in Coors Field, which always means his hitting numbers will be right up there. His best chance is if he can lead the Rockies back to the playoffs. Dark horse candidate – Jesus Aguilar
Mike Quilty: Paul Goldschmidt had never won the award before but has been close multiple times as a D-Back. After a trade to St. Louis a change of scenery may be just what he needs.
Paul Goldschmidt joins a new team for the first time in his career.
American League Cy Young
Thom Howland: The all-time MLB leader in K/9 and K/BB will put it all together this year. After 6 straight Top 5 AL Cy Young finishes, Chris Sale will finally gain the top spot in 2019. Dark horse candidate – Eduardo Rodriguez
Scott Frizzell: Coming off a fantastic first season in Houston, I will choose Gerrit Cole to win the Cy Young this year. There is no one candidate this year that stands out to me. Dark horse candidate – Shane Bieber
John Principe: Despite struggling in the second half of 2018, I expect a massive year out of Jose Berrios. The bats are a little better behind him, which should work to his advantage. He’s a nasty pitcher with devastating off-speed stuff and will have a good chance to finish at least top 5 in Cy Young voting. Dark horse candidate – Mike Clevinger
Ben Rolfe: The drop in velocity for Chris Sale has me scared, and Gerrit Cole looked so dominant at times last year. He will be a crucial part of a playoff bound rotation and could win 20 games this season.
Mike Quilty: Chris Sale has come in the top five in each of the last six years. Injury last season ended his first shot at the award as he was pitching well. I think Sale will have an amazing year in 2019 and win his first Cy Young.
Chris Sale always finishes in the top five, but can he finally win the coveted award?
National League Cy Young
Thom Howland: Noah Syndergaard went 4-1 with two shutouts in September of last year. Finally healthy after years of nagging injuries, and with an improved Mets team behind him, the promise of his 97+ MPH fastball and devastating off-speed stuff will bring home the NL Cy Young in 2019. Dark horse candidate – Luis Castillo
Scott Frizzell: I tried Noah Syndergaard last season and instead his teammate won the award. I’m going him again. Syndergaard has the stuff to win it, reaching into the upper-90’s with his fastball with a devastating slider thrown around 92. Dark horse candidate – Walker Buehler
John Principe: Walker Buehler came up and absolutely dominated last year. With Kershaw ready to pass the load (and possibly ace status) on to Buehler, this could be a huge breakout year for him in establishing himself as a premier pitcher in the NL. Dark horse candidate – Kyle Freeland
Ben Rolfe: Patrick Corbin moves to a rotation which is known for pitching success on the back of a great 2018. Pitching alongside Max Scherzer gives a perfect person for him to be compared to all season in order to win this award. Dark horse candidate – Robbie Ray
Mike Quilty: Max Scherzer has won three times already, and had a career high last season with 300 strikeouts. He went 18-7 with a 2.53 era and probably would’ve won his fourth if not for Jacob deGrom and his historic season.
“Thor” has electric stuff, but has had some injury troubles.
American League Rookie of the Year
Thom Howland: As a 19-year-old, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. rocketed from Rookie Ball all the way to AAA last year. Along the way he managed a .381 average, 20 Home Runs, and 29 Doubles. He’ll be delayed by a few weeks, but this 20-year-old will rake once he makes the show. Dark horse candidate – Josh James
Scott Frizzell: Eloy Jimenez could have a fantastic rookie season, but it’s hard to go against Vladimir Guerrero Jr. after he hit .402 at AA last season. This could shape up similarly to the Ronald Acuna vs Juan Soto race for Rookie of the Year last season. Dark horse candidate – Josh James
John Principe: Possibly the easiest category of all, Vlad Jr. is poised for greatness regardless of when his call-up comes. He’ll be in the show this season, hopefully by the middle of May at the latest. Even with his competitors getting possibly an extra month to pad their stats, Vlad should easily win this award. Dark horse candidate – Yusei Kikuchi
Ben Rolfe: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is not a particularly fun pick, but I cannot see who else it will be. Guerrero is so talented and in a hitter friendly park, he will have every chance to put up huge numbers. Dark horse candidate – Yusei Kikuchi
Mike Quilty: Vladimir Guerrero Jr, 19-year-old son of HOF Vladimir Guerrero has dominated every level he’s played at to this point. He’s a great talent with great lineage and will now showcase his talent in the big leagues.
Vlad Jr. is the only unanimous choice.
National League Rookie of the Year
Thom Howland: Fernando Tatis Jr. is another precocious 20-year-old. He hit .286 with 16 HR and 22 Doubles last year in AA. The Padres are moving the newly minted $300 Million Dollar Manny Machado to third base so Tatis Jr. can play every day. Dark horse candidate – Pete Alonso
Scott Frizzell: Nick Senzel keeps getting moved around the field due to being blocked at the big league level all over the infield. His bat will play anywhere though. It looks like his new home will be center field for the Reds. Although I think Pete Alonso might slug 30 home runs for the Mets, I believe Senzel will have a more rounded game, batting around .300 with 15-20 home runs and stolen bases. Dark horse candidate – Chris Paddack
John Principe: The opposite of the AL, this race seems wide open to me. With no clear favorite, the Mets slugger Pete Alonso is my choice. Alonso has a brilliant eye, and lots of pop in his bat and should have a chance to play first base right away for the Mets. Dark horse candidate – Nick Senzel
Ben Rolfe: Anyone with Nick Senzel’s talent who gets to play in a hitter friendly park is always going to have a great shot of success. Add in the highlight plays he seems to be capable of making in center field and this could be a fun player to watch this season. Dark horse candidate – Chris Paddack
Mike Quilty: If Alex Reyes can finally stay healthy, he has some of the most electric stuff in the entire sport.
Nick Senzel was drafted 2nd overall in 2016.
American League Manager of the Year
Thom Howland: The Angels are an afterthought in the AL playoff picture. The A’s funky stadium and Billy Beane’s witchcraft will run out, and Brad Ausmus will have the Angels in the playoffs for the first time since 2014. Dark horse candidate – Kevin Cash
Scott Frizzell: I like Thom’s pick of Brad Ausmus. Mike Scioscia had gone stale and in need of replacing, the fresh face of Ausmus will give the club an extra jolt this season. Although their pitching staff is questionable, their lineup is looking rock solid. Dark horse candidate – Rocco Baldelli
John Principe: After being named a finalist in 2018 due to his innovation and his ability to do lots with very little, Kevin Cash should take the next step and win this year. There’s always the possibility of a team exceeding expectations (i.e. 2018 Athletics) and that manager taking the award, but for now Cash seems like the safest bet. Dark horse candidate – Rocco Baldelli
Ben Rolfe: Rick Renteria could have a perfect storm of young talented players starting to reach their peak and a weak division. The White Sox could push the Indians deep this season and even not making the playoffs that would be enough to get Renteria in consideration for the award. Dark horse candidate – Rocco Baldelli
Mike Quilty: Call me a homer but I’m going with Alex Cora
Can Brad Ausmus lead the Angels to the playoffs in his first season at the helm?
National League Manager of the Year
Thom Howland: Bud Black has two top-five MVP possibilities in Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon. They have promising starters in Jon Gray, German Marquez, and Kyle Freeland. Black will help their pitching and lead them to the NL Playoffs, despite being given a slim 17.5% chance of doing so. Dark horse candidate – Dave Martinez
Scott Frizzell: Last year I said the Phillies would surprise people and hang in the race before ultimately fading. This year, they will win the NL East, and with it Gabe Kapler will take home the Manager of the Year Award. Dark horse candidate – David Bell
John Principe: David Bell has a great opportunity in front of him in his first year leading the Reds. A young lineup that has already proved itself may now have some pitching behind it to support this team. A lot of people have the Reds as the breakout team of 2019, myself included. If they can push themselves into playoff contention in that division, or even over .500, it’s going to be hard not giving this award to Bell. Dark horse candidate – Dave Martinez
Ben Rolfe: This is another case of a perfect storm. Gabe Kapler took a lot of stick for some of his decisions last season. However, now he has a young rotation and an incredibly talented lineup at his fingertips. This team could be in contention for the most wins in the NL. Dark horse candidate – Bud Black
Mike Quilty: I think Dave Roberts will get the Dodgers back to the World Series and have one of the best records. After losing one of his key players, that could be enough to net him this award.
The Mets are a little off their rocker, the Winter Meetings are coming up, and the Cardinals have stolen some National League thunder with the Paul Goldschmidt trade. Nathan Eovaldi is back! Now is the time for the Red Sox to strike. Bring Noah Syndergaard to Boston. A quick reminder:
So…..Fenway was a sureal ballpark to pitch in…..from a childhood dream perspective……As visiting pitcher on a team and city I love…..#dontfreakout
The Mets are in win-now mode with their strange reliance on 36 year old, recently PED suspended, Robinson Cano. They also got Edwin Diaz in the deal. He’s a young closer who’s only done it in the relative obscurity of the Pacific Northwest. Those guys are often inconsistent. They’re also reportedly looking into trading for Corey Kluber, which is kind of nuts. Kluber has been one of the best pitchers in baseball the last few years. But the reason he’s available from the Indians is because he is 33 and on the verge of a big payday. His contract escalates, from $10 million to $17.5 million and beyond, the next few years.
When news of a Syndergaard trade first surfaced, the Mets were said to be looking to upgrade their farm system with a trade. And why wouldn’t they? Syndergaard will be the best bargain Ace in the game the next few years. His injuries are overblown and his September was one to remember.
But something happened on the road to a competitive team and stacked farm system. Potential trades aren’t bearing the kind of fruit the Mets thought they would get. Let’s take a deep dive on some rumored deals.
Margot, whom the Red Sox gave to the Padres in the Craig Kimbrel trade, has been a classic good defense, no-so-good offense, center fielder. In 2017 he hit .263 with a .721 OPS. In 2018, after the league had a look at him, he hit .245 with a .675 OPS. Think Jackie Bradley Jr without the hot streaks and superior defense.
Austin Hedges is a catcher with slightly above average power, and little else. In 2017 he hit .214 with a .660 OPS, 2018 it was .231/.711.
Mackenzie Gore is a highly rated young pitcher who gets a lot of strikeouts. He also walks a lot of people. Because of this, he had a middling 4.45 ERA in single A ball last year.
The Rockies
The Rockies have a lot of young pitching. It may be just for show, but Assistant GM Zack Rosenthal told the MLB Network on Tuesday 12/4 that the Rockies are built on that young pitching and defense. This is a team that hits missile after missile into the glorious Rocky Mountain air. The team is also about to spend a record amount in arbitration on MVP candidate Nolan Arenado. Arenado is not making that kind of money for his gold glove defense at third base. He hit .297 with 36 Home Runs last year.
So what does this mean? The Rockies may be deluding themselves into thinking their MVP candidates don’t matter and it’s all about the pitching. More likely, they’re negotiating in the media to reduce their arbitration cases with their hitters. But because of the money going to their hitters, they’re likely to keep the young starters they have. The Red Sox don’t have that kind of young pitching.
The Red Sox
Rafael Devers is better than anyone the Padres or Rockies can or will throw at the Mets.
Margot is 24, Hedges is 26. Devers is still the tender age of 22. This precious youngster hit .284 with 10 home runs and a .819 OPS in part time play as a 20 year old in 2017, then .240 with 21 home runs and a .731 OPS last year. Furthermore, Devers hit .311 in the Postseason over his first 2 years, including 3 home runs and a .884 OPS in 45 at bats.
That’s special. But he’s no Tony Conigliaro. The beloved Tony C hit .290 with 24 home runs and an .883 OPS as a 19 year old, then .269 with 32 home runs and an .850 OPS as a 20 year old, then .265 with 28 home runs and an .817 OPS as a 21 year old.
Devers will be worth holding on to, but not transcendent. That is why he’s worth giving up for the rare young, cost controlled monster, like Noah Syndergaard, who becomes available.
What’s more, the Mets need a catcher. The Red Sox have a plethora. Putting Christian Vazquez, whose Postseason success means his value may never be higher, in a trade would be ideal. But the Sox could throw in Blake Swihart instead. A combo of either Swihart or Vazquez, with Sandy Leon as backup, would be more than fine for the 2019 Red Sox.
If the Mets wants minor leaguers, give them some. The Red Sox have a weak system, but Devers is younger than most of the highly touted minor leaguers in the game. It would take less top young talent than some other teams.
Eovaldi Frees Things Up
And now that Nathan Eovaldi is back, the Sox are freed up to include Eduardo Rodriguez in the deal if they need to. This gives the Red Sox more options. They don’t need to give the Mets everything, but widens the possibilities of how a trade could look.
Syndergaard Solves The Contract Crunch
At the end of 2019 the Sox will have some choices to make. Chris Sale, Rick Porcello, and Xander Bogaerts become free agents at that time. Nathan Eovaldi’s contract is reported to be in the $17 million a year range. All three of those other guys will cost more than that.
Then there is JD Martinez’s opt out. He’s currently being paid $23.75 Million. With his performance he will definitely be looking for a raise starting in 2020.
Noah Syndergaard is in arbitration. He made $2.975 Million last year and, his projected earnings in 2019 are $5.9 Million. If he becomes a top 10 starting pitcher in 2019, watch out. Thor has three years of control left in arbitration. He won’t approach $20 million in salary until 2021 at the earliest.
If Syndergaard is in Boston, there’s a lot more money for the rest of the team.
Time To Act
There are reports of the Mets talking with the Marlins about JT Realmuto. They are itching to trade. The competition for Syndergaard is falling away. The Red Sox can solve the Mets catching problems. Fire up the Knights of Cydonia and let’s rock this trade Dave Dombrowski.
In the first of three ballot updates before the big all star game, let’s see who holds the edge, and who gets snubbed after update 1.
In the National league’s first ballot update, the Atlanta Braves stood out by far. Having three players leading in the votes thus far. Here’s how the ballot is shaping up after the first ballot update.
New to this year, the manager for the national league team will select the designated hitter for that team, the fans cannot vote for it.
For the american league squad, the powerful duo of Betts and Martinez are no doubters thus far.
First base: Jose Abreu ( 267,812 votes) Second base: Jose Altuve ( 701,236 votes) Third Base: Jose Ramirez ( 443,234 votes) Shortstop: Manny Machado (321,887 votes) Catcher: Gary Sanchez ( 336,280 votes) Outfielder 1: Mookie Betts ( 748,872 votes Leads all players) Outfielder 2: Mike Trout ( 639,882 votes) Outfielder 3: Aaron Judge ( 541,993 votes) Designated Hitter: J.D Martinez ( 513,415 votes)
The american league race is shaping up as a lot of people thought it would. The next two ballot updates are announced on June 18 and 19! Stay tuned to how it all unfolds right here as the all star races continue to heat up.
With the Major League Baseball season almost upon us (finally), our baseball writers have collaborated to make our picks for the coming season. In this article we detail who will win the major awards for 2018; Most Valuable Player, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year for both leagues. We will follow this one up with a part two article covering our picks for the division winners and the postseason.
American League Most Valuable Player
Scott Frizzell – Mike Trout is my pick for this year’s MVP winner because he is awfully hard to pick against. Trout is the best player in baseball, and his first six seasons match up pretty favorably with just about any player in the game’s history. He could be a top ten player of all-time once he hangs them up. Dark Horse Candidate – Francisco Lindor
Matt O’Halloran – Mike Trout seems like the best pick, as he has been for the past five years. He won the award in 2014 and 2016, and has been close to winning it in the other years. The Angels missed the Wild Card by five games in 2017, and a playoff run combined with a healthy season should guarantee a third MVP for the outfielder. Runner up – Jose Altuve
Kyle Porch – Mookie Betts will win MVP this year because he has a lot to prove. Simply put, he got robbed of the award two years ago by Mike Trout, and he needs the numbers to get the extension he wants. With a third straight gold glove award in sight, the five tool player can rip it up offensively to which we have seen the last two seasons.
Justin Gonzalez – It has always been Mike Trout’s award to lose ever since he stepped foot in the MLB. Widely renowned as baseball’s best player, Trout seems to be catapulting himself towards a first ballot hall of fame vote already at the age of 26. Last year was seen as a down year for him since he only played in 114 games but was still able to post a 1.071 OPS, 33 HR, 72 RBI, .306 batting average while swiping 22 bags. Now batting in the best lineup he has ever been in, it is time for Trout to show us what he is truly capable of and all we can do is sit back and enjoy the show.
David Latham – It’s Altuve’s world, and we’re all just living in it. I’ve been a huge fan of Altuve ever since he entered the league, and outside of Mike Trout, there’s no other player I’d rather have on my team. He’s everything you want in a baseball player: he can hit for average, power, he’s a great athlete, and he gives 110% every single play.
Brandon Fazzolari – Carlos Correa is in the middle of a lineup that tests pitchers every step of the way, setting Correa up to produce huge numbers.
National League Most Valuable Player
Scott Frizzell – Bryce Harper has more or less become the player he was supposed to become over the last three seasons. Last year, his season was derailed by injury, but he was putting up big numbers before he went down. Now entering his first contract season, expect Harper to play as well as he ever has. I think numbers similar to his 2015 campaign are within reach. Dark Horse Candidate – Christian Yelich
Matt O’Halloran – Nolan Arenado has been consistently great during his career, but never really talked about. It could be the Colorado market or blind fans chalking up the success to Coors, but that silence changes this year. Arenado is in a contract year, which should bolster his already impressive stats. The young third baseman is an outstanding defender and great hitter (even out of Coors). The Rockies made the wild card game last year, and another postseason berth combined with impressive numbers should get him the MVP. Runner up– Corey Seager
Kyle Porch – Nolan Arenado will win the NL MVP award simply because of a continuation from last season. The Rockies third baseman will continue on his upward trend while earning a massive payday next season.
Justin Gonzalez – It must really suck to be Harper. I mean think about it: he has luscious hair, a beard that a lumberjack would approve of, a career WAR that is one point higher than his actual age (26 over 25), and is heading into one of the biggest contract years ever. Okay, maybe that doesn’t suck, but what I was getting at is imagine a baseball world without Mike Trout. We would be talking about Harper like he was the second coming of Ken Griffey Jr. I believe that this contract year for Harper is what will put him on the map clearly as the second best baseball player in the world.
David Latham – There are very few baseball players more talented than Washington Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper. Another guy that can do it all, Harper is set to hit unrestricted free agency at the end of 2018. Look for Harper to have an absolutely crazy 2018 before breaking the bank in 2019.
Brandon Fazzolari – Bryce Harper is a versatile performer that can hit for average and power from the left side. Barring injury, this award should be his.
Photo by Patrick Smith
American League Cy Young Award
Scott Frizzell – I like to dig a little deeper on AL Cy Young oftentimes, so my pick is going to be Lance McCullers this season. McCullers just needs to stay healthy, as he has never pitched more than 22 games in a season. His first two seasons he had a 3.22 ERA, and he struck out 11.8 batters per nine in 2016. When he went down with an injury last June, McCullers had a 2.58 ERA and 10.4 k/9. He pitched well in the postseason and so far this spring he has been lights out. Dark Horse Candidate – James Paxton
Matt O’Halloran – Justin Verlander posted a 1.06 regular season ERA after he was traded to the Astros on August 31st. The ace was a big part of their world series run and should put up impressive numbers again. He won the award in 2011, and was a runner up in 2016. He has been consistently dominant since he entered the league in 2006, and there is no reason to believe that will stop. Runner up– Chris Sale
Kyle Porch – Chris Sale will give hitters deja vu of his 2017 season to win the award. While working out with Jason Groome over the offseason, he has built muscle and the velocity has improved while under-exerting himself during spring training.
Justin Gonzalez – The 2017 Cy Young award runner up has some unfinished business to take care of in 2018. He got his inaugural Red Sox season out of the way and is looking to take back what was clearly his in the first half of the season. Sporting the highest career SO/W (strikeout per win) figure in MLB history, Sale does two things extremely well: strikeout batters and win games. Pitching in front of a better lineup than last season, he has a chance to have a career year. Pair all of this with his longevity boosting workout regimen and he is really in line for another spectacular season.
David Latham – For the first four months of the 2017 season, this award was Sale’s to lose. Unfortunately, fatigue set in and Sale had a rough end of the season. He ended up finishing second for the award, behind Cleveland Indians ace Corey Kluber.
Brandon Fazzolari – Chris Sale is the consummate power pitcher. He shows no signs of slowing down in his prime.
National League Cy Young Award
Scott Frizzell – Sticking with my theme of underdogs for Cy Young, I am taking Noah Syndergaard to win in the NL this year. Syndergaard isn’t quite the underdog McCullers is, but anyone not named Kershaw or Scherzer in the National League seems like a bit of one. After missing most of last season, Syndergaard is healthy and strong for this season. He came out firing 100 miles per hour early in spring. Dark Horse Candidate – Aaron Nola
Matt O’Halloran – I could have flipped a coin between Kershaw and Max Scherzer. It is a two man race barring a major injury because they are the only best pitchers in the NL and whoever is third is a distant third. I predict Kershaw just because the Dodgers should finish ahead of the Nationals in the standings. He won the award in 2011, 2013, 2014, and was a runner up in 2017. Runner up – Max Scherzer
Kyle Porch – Clayton Kershaw will continue his dominance by winning another Cy Young award. The Dodgers pitcher could opt out and with his 4th award he can get a huge payday.
Justin Gonzalez – Want to read a preposterous sentence? Clayton Kershaw could possibly have a better career than Trout when it is all said and done. Everyone knows that he is the best pitcher in baseball (you do know that, right?) but just how good is he? Well for starters, he hasn’t had an ERA over 2.50 since 2012 (2.53) and has only had an ERA over 3.00 ONCE in TEN seasons (his rookie year). Get my point? He already has a career WAR of 60.6 and is heading into a contract season. His recent injuries would be the only thing that would stop him from winning the award for the 4th time, but then again, injuries could happen to anybody on this list. I would be absolutely floored if Kershaw didn’t run away with the award yet again.
David Latham – Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball, and it’s not even that close. Until someone dethrones him as the best, this award will always be his to lose.
Brandon Fazzolari – Joining most others, I am picking Clayton Kershaw to win this award. It’s hard to believe Kershaw is still just 30 years old because he has been so good for so long.
Clayton Kershaw during the first inning against the Colorado Rockies, Wednesday, April 19, 2017. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)
American League Rookie of the Year
Scott Frizzell – Shohei Ohtani seemed to be the clear favorite for this award before his lousy spring training. I wanted to go elsewhere with this pick anyways, Ohtani was too easy. Willie Calhoun of the Rangers is starting the season in the minors, but I think he will be up by the end of April. A former fourth round pick, Calhoun batted .300 with 31 home runs in AAA last season. In a hitter’s paradise in Arlington, Calhoun should make his mark this season. Dark Horse Candidate – Austin Hays
Kyle Porch – Willie Calhoun has great speed not only in the outfield, but on the base path as well. If he can continue his hot hitting from the minors, he should be a lock for Rookie of The Year.
Justin Gonzalez – Eloy Jimenez ranks as the number four prospect in all of baseball and seems to be overshadowed by another soon to be star, Yoan Moncada. Originally from the Cubs organization before being traded to the ChiSox in exchange for Jose Quintana, Jimenez seems to be a player that can really be a pivotal piece towards the White Sox rebuild. The 21 year old has an eye-popping OPS of 2.381 in his first Spring Training. Jimenez recently got optioned to double-A, but there should not be any reason why the White Sox wouldn’t promote him at some point during the season.
David Latham – If Rafael Devers were eligible, I’d pick him here. However, he’s not, so the award goes to Texas Rangers outfielder Willie Calhoun. Calhoun is a power bat on a popular organization that should be average at least, so why not him?
Brandon Fazzolari – There’s a lot to like about the multi-talented Ohtani, but mostly that he’s in a lineup alongside Mike Trout.
Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images
National League Rookie of the Year
Scott Frizzell – It is hard to pick against Ronald Acuña at this point. He will start the season in the minor leagues, but that is only to extend his years under team control. Acuña will be up before long and he is one of the most talented prospects to come up in sometime. Acuña has some all-around ability to his game in the vein of Mike Trout. In three stops last season. Acuña batted .325, hit 21 home runs and stole 44 bases. So far this spring, he has batted .432 with 4 homers and 4 steals. Dark Horse Candidate – A.J. Minter
Kyle Porch – Ronald Acuña has flown through the Braves minor league system. Their number 1 prospect is expected to branch out in the majors this season.
Justin Gonzalez – J.P. Crawford seems to be one of the more overlooked players to get excited about in today’s baseball world. In a league where shortstop seems to be a position abundant with raw talent, it is hard to get noticed. However, Crawford will be the everyday shortstop for a Phillies team that has suddenly become decent. The acquisition of Carlos Santana, a full season of Rhys Hoskins and a hopeful season for Maikel Franco will really help Crawford out from the get go. His patience at the plate along with his ability to hit to all fields as well as his plus defending makes him one of the early front-runners for the NL Rookie of the Year.
David Latham – The Dodgers will be good this year, and Walker Buehler should be a big part of that. He won’t be the top arm in the rotation, which honestly should help his win total. He’s got a lot of talent, making it to the majors after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2016.
Brandon Fazzolari – If spring training is any indication, Acuña should win this award in a cakewalk.
There is a lot of talent at the hot corner. In fact, Mike Moustakas hit 38 home runs last season and isn’t even on a team as of this writing. He hit more home runs than any other third baseman last season. Yet, it’s debatable whether or not he is a top 10 third baseman moving forward. Weighing offense, defense, base running and age, these are my top 10 for the long haul.
1. Nolan Arenado
Arenado has arguably been a top five player in all of baseball three years running. Arenado led the league in both home runs and runs batted in during the 2015 and 2016 seasons. Last season he led the league in doubles while hitting a career high .309. During that three year stretch, his average season has been .297 with 40 home runs, 40 doubles, 131 RBI and a .353/.577/.930 slash line. He might be the best current player to have not won an MVP Award.
Arenado does benefit by playing half his games at high altitude, but he’d be a superstar regardless. Most players hit better at home regardless, so whereas he does receive added benefit at Coors, you can’t completely write off his elevated numbers at home. Arenado has still hit 56 homers on the road over the past three seasons, compared to his 64 at Coors. That is not much of a difference. The biggest gap is at batting average, where comfortability in a home park plays a big role. It will be interesting to watch what happens if he leaves Colorado in a couple of years, but I don’t think the drop off will be steep.
What secures Arenado in the top spot for me is his excellent defense in addition to the hitting. Arenado has won the Gold Glove all five seasons he has played in. His dWAR has been 1.9 or better in each season and he has averaged over 20 defensive runs saved per season. Among third basemen, he has led the league in range factor per game in every season.
2. Kris Bryant
Bryant just might be the most dangerous amongst all third basemen with a bat in his hands. He won Rookie of the Year and the MVP in his first two seasons. The belief is that he dropped off a bit from his MVP season last year, but that’s not as true as one might think. His home runs fell off from 39 to 29, and his runs batted in fell way off. However, if you look more closely, his other stats are very similar. His batting average was nearly identical, and he got on base at a much higher clip. His slugging percentage, even with the dip in home runs, was not much lower. This led to Bryant actually improving his .939 OPS in 2016 to .946 last year.
Bryant is always going to hit a lot of home runs. One big key for him is his declining strike out rate. Bryant is dangerous when he gets wood on the ball, so the fact he has struck out less in each season is huge. Bryant led the league with 199 strike outs his rookie season. He cut 45 strike outs off that total in his MVP season, and lowered it all the way down to 128 last year. Hand-in-hand with that, he struck out in less than 20% of his at-bats last season, down from 30.6% in his rookie season. He also walked a career high 95 times last year. With his ability to put the ball in play more often, I would be surprised if Bryant didn’t bounce back to 35 home runs this season.
Kris Bryant of the Chicago Cubs hits against the Baltimore Orioles in the first inning during a game on July 16, 2017 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick McDermott)
3. Jose Ramirez
Jose Ramirez’ star has skyrocketed the last two seasons. A lightly heralded young utility player heading into 2016, Ramirez batted .312 and hit 46 doubles that year. Last year he launched his game into a new stratosphere, hitting 29 homers and leading the league with 56 doubles. His .957 OPS was .002 behind Nolan Arenado for the highest among all third basemen. Ramirez was a legitimate MVP candidate, finishing in third place for the award.
Ramirez has a reliable glove, generally fielding what he gets to. He doesn’t have the range of some others, leaving him with mediocre advanced statistics for the position. With how good he is offensively though, he is among the best. He has a .315 batting average and .892 OPS over the past two seasons. Remarkably, he has hit over 100 doubles in just two seasons. He can run a little too, stealing 39 bases the last two seasons.
4. Josh Donaldson
At 32, Donaldson is a lot older than the guys above him. However, he is not so old that he should be dropped far down the list. He should still have several years of excellent play left in him. To this point, he has an MVP Award and two other top five finishes. He has homered over 30 times all three seasons with the Blue Jays, and his .939 OPS during his MVP season is actually the lowest of his three years in Toronto. He has an average of 37 home runs during that span and a .946 OPS.
Donaldson goes all out in the field, routinely dirtying up his jersey. He is the type of player you appreciate as a fan; a star who also gives it his all. His defense has slipped a bit the past two seasons, but he has still been above average at the position and has historically been a very good fielder.
5. Alex Bregman
Bregman was the second overall pick in 2015 and was in the majors the following year. Turning 24 around the start of the season, there is plenty of room for growth. In his first full season, Bregman struck out in 15.5% of his at-bats, an excellent mark in this day and age. He batted .284 with 19 home runs and 39 doubles. With continued improvement, I see him becoming a .300 hitter with 25 home run power. He puts the ball in play, and the hard hit contact should continue to improve with age and experience. He even stole 17 bags last year.
Bregman is average in the field, posting a 0.5 dWAR over his first two seasons. However, he was only 23 last season. Bregman also had to learn the position in the pros, as he played mostly shortstop in the minors. As someone who had the ability to play short, I would not be surprised by some defensive improvement at third as he gains more experience there.
6. Rafael Devers
Devers is practically a baby still, playing last season at the age of 20; and all he did was hit. Appearing in the top 20 of most prospect rankings two consecutive years, Devers has always been followed by a lot of hype. He batted over .300 with a .955 OPS between two minor league stops last season. When he reached Boston, he did not stop. Devers hit 10 home runs, giving him a total of 30 for the season. His approach wasn’t all or nothing either, as Devers hit for a .284 batting average. He struck out a fair amount, but the rate was not so high as to get worried. His strike out rate in the minor leagues was always in the teens too, so I would expect his rate to come down. He also has a good hitting approach, routinely using the whole field.
Devers fielding was rocky last season, but give the kid a break; he wasn’t even old enough to drink. His fundamentals at the position are sound, he just needs to keep his focus better and gain more experience. Still just 21 this coming season, I wouldn’t even be worried yet if his defense was still sub par this year. Ultimately, I believe he will develop into at least an adequate third baseman defensively.
7. Anthony Rendon
This spot for Rendon might be a little unpopular, but he’s been around five years now and just had a real breakout last season at the age of 27. I do believe he is an excellent player, but he has been fragile dating back to his college days. Before last season, he’d only had one season as good as what Bregman did last year, or even what Devers did over a partial season. I just trust Bregman more to be consistently good year to year, and I think Devers upside is much higher. If Rendon can stay healthy though, he should be a good player for a while to come.
Over his first four seasons, Rendon batted .274 with just 13 home runs per season. Accounting for injury, that number jumps to 18 home runs per 162 games. Still, not overly impressive. He has hit 20 or more home runs in all three of his healthy seasons though, albeit barely. His .777 OPS over his first four seasons jumped all the way up to .937 last season. Some of it might have to do with the lively ball, but a lot of it probably has to do with him peaking at 27 years old and being healthy for a second consecutive season. He seems like someone who could settle in as a .300 hitter with 20 home runs per year.
8. Miguel Sano
If the allegations against Sano don’t pull him off the field, he should be one of the top home run hitters at the position for years. That is, if he remains at the position. Sano has bounced between third and right field some and hasn’t been impressive at either position. He has a .941 career fielding percentage at third and a negative dWAR. Unsurprisingly, he also grades out negatively in defensive runs saved. At 6’4″ 260, Sano looks like a long-term DH. However, he is at third base for now, so on this list he shall fall.
With his huge body, Sano has immense raw power. His contact rate holds him back some, as he has struck out over 170 times in consecutive years. He has struck out in nearly 36% of his Major League at-bats. That number has to come down for him to ever reach his full potential. He hits the ball hard though when he does hit it, and that hard contact rate will lead to high batting averages on balls in play. His BABIP last season was .375, and it was as high as .396 in his rookie season. If Sano can stay on the field, he could be a threat for 40 home runs. Currently, he is averaging 37 home runs per 162 games played.
9. Justin Turner
Turner isn’t higher on this list because he is 33 years old now. The guys above him should have many more years of production in them. Turner is an excellent hitter though, putting the ball in play often and causing damage when he does. His strike out rate was best amongst all third basemen last season. A year after hitting a career high 27 home runs, Turner batted .322 with 21 homers and a .945 OPS last year.
A mechanical change at the plate and hitting the ball in the air more often have not sacrificed Turner’s contact rate. Once a utility player, Turner broke out in that role in 2014, his first season with the Dodgers. Since gaining an expanded role, Turner has batted .295 and averaged 21 home runs per season over the last three. He should still be an excellent hitter for a few more years, and that to me warrants a spot in the top ten.
Los Angeles Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner follows through on a swing for a solo home run against the New York Mets during the third inning at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports
10. Kyle Seager
Kyle Seager is as steady as they come. He doesn’t wow at the plate, but he puts up roughly the same numbers year in and year out. Seager has homered at least 25 times in four straight seasons, and 20 or more in six straight. His average bottomed out a bit at .249 last season, but he had batted between .260 and .278 in each of the four previous seasons. In all, he has batted .264 and averaged 25 home runs per season since becoming a regular in 2012. At 30 years old, it doesn’t look like he’s going to change much. He is who he is, and that’s a very solid third baseman.
Seager is just as good in the field, winning a Gold Glove in 2014. He has averaged more than 1.0 dWAR over the past four seasons His range factor has also been consistently above the league average every season. Seager should be a steady contributor at the hot corner for a while still to come.
Honorable Mentions:
Mike Moustakas, Jake Lamb, Travis Shaw, Adrian Beltre, Eugenio Suarez
