Tag Archives: Sabermetrics

Comparing the 2018 Red Sox to the 88 Teams Before Them

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The 2018 Red Sox are not only the team with the best record in baseball, they are the winningest team in franchise history. They have the chance to become the first team to reach 110+ wins since the 2001 Seattle Mariners. That is incredibly special, but many people want to ask: How special is it really?

Everyone can state that 106 wins is a rare feat, and they’re right. However, the numbers pertaining to how good this team is may shock you. Here, the 2018 Red Sox will be analyzed and compared to every single Red Sox team since 1930.

Offense

The 2018 Red Sox have two players who will likely eat up most of this season’s MVP votes in Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez. This team is an offensive catalyst that leads all of baseball in almost every single category. After a power absent offensive season in 2017, this team has transformed itself. One can almost call it mature or seasoned, at this point. Xander Bogaerts will more than likely reach the 100 RBI mark, Mookie will have a 30/30 year and Andrew Benintendi reached his career high in hits. They hit well against everyone, in any venue, and their record proves it.

Credit: Fangraphs (2018)

How Clutch Are They?

The Sox rank 25th in OPS (.787), 16th in wRC+ (109), 50th in batting average (.267), and 25th in runs scored (833). These are not mind-blowing numbers by any means. However, delving deeper into the numbers can show that the team is extremely clutch. In fact, they rank 3rd in a factor that Fangraphs literally calls “Clutch“. Granted, a Red Sox team without David Ortiz will never be as clutch as it could be. This 2018 team is different, and it can finally be said that they no longer need Big Papi in order to find success. On the season, the Red Sox rank first in RBIs which shows how efficient they have been. Not only do they get on base, but they also deliver when there is a chance to bring guys home.

The Red Sox currently have 199 home runs (12th) and will more than likely break the top 10 in franchise history. On the contrary, they walk at a rate of only 8.9, which lands them at the 59th spot. As far as strikeouts go, they rank 3rd highest at a 19.8% rate (which is still good for 5th lowest among teams in 2018). This trend can be attributed to a few things, such as the evolution of baseball or the aggressive hitting style Alex Cora has introduced. Another important asset of this team is the way they steal bases. They steal bases as efficiently as anyone has seen in recent years, even while lacking a true speedster. A 79.47 SB% ranks them first in all of baseball in 2018. The team has finally ditched the “Lead Sox” cliché.

(Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images)

Pitching

The 2018 Red Sox are known to have many public opinions about their pitching staff. It seems that one day, the pitchers can do no wrong and the next day, they are the worst pitching staff ever. Many pitchers have had moments of brilliance in this historic season. One could say that the Sox are having a decent season especially when compared to better pitching staffs like the Astros or the Dodgers. Comparing the 2018 Sox to those of season’s past show where this team’s true strength is.

Credit: Fangraphs (2018)

Dominant Outings

A simple comparison to those teams of the last 88 years will reveal that the 2018 Red Sox rank 12th in ERA (3.67), 2nd in strikeouts (1499), 1st in batting average against (.234), 3rd in WHIP (1.24), and 7th in saves (46). The average fan may think that the hitting has been the main reason for success this season, but the pitching is just as important. Having a good pitching staff that limits the opposition is very important. On the contrary, runs win games and having a great offense is key to making a deep playoff push. Having both on the same team in the same season is a deadly combination.

A more analytical viewpoint will show that the Slider has been the most effective pitch for the 2018 Red Sox. They posted a wSL figure of 27.1 and a wFB of 32.1 which is 4th best in the last two decades, for fastballs. They attained an xFIP of 3.92, which coincides with their team ERA and alludes to their defense being a good source of help for the year. Finally, when it comes to SIERA (my favorite pitching stat), the Red Sox have amounted to a figure of 3.73. This basically means that the pitching staff does an above average job at limiting hits and runs scored (they rank 5th out of all teams in 2018).

(Copyright ©2018 ESPN Internet Ventures. All rights reserved.)

In The End

This team will be looked at as one of the best in Red Sox history. Regardless of if they win a World Series title or not, this shows how far they have come and how much more these kids have to give. Boston is stuck with this core for a while and that should be celebrated for the fact that many teams go decades without witnessing something like this.

@ELJGON

Comparing The 2003 Red Sox to The 2018 Red Sox

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While nearly 15 years has separated these two teams, there are a lot of similarities between them. With what appears to be two different ages of baseball, what can we take away from the ages?

The opening day lineups.

In 2003, The opening day lineup looked like this. 1. Johnny Damon CF, 2. Todd Walker 2B, 3. Nomar Garciaparra SS, 4. Manny Ramirez LF, 5. Kevin Millar 1B, 6. Shea Hillenbrand 3B, 7. Jeremy Giambi DH, 8. Trot Nixon RF, 9. Jason Varitek C Starting Pitcher Pedro Martinez.

This lineup had it all.  They had key veteran players to build around. They had speed, raw power, and most of all talent. This team was poised to make a deep October run until the rival Yankees ended it on a sour note. The 2004 team would eventually reverse the 86 year long drought. After that “The Curse of The Great Bambino” was over.

This season, the Opening Day lineup consisted of 1. Mookie Betts RF, 2. Andrew Benintendi LF, 3. Hanley Ramirez 1B ( not on the team anymore.) 4. J.D Martinez DH, 5. Xander Bogaerts SS, 6. Rafael Devers 3B, 7. Eduardo Nunez 2B, 8. Jackie Bradley Jr. CF, 9. Christian Vazquez C. Starting Pitcher Chris Sale. 

The Similarities.

This team also has raw power and speed. Their ace Chris Sale is most comparable to Pedro Martinez in his intensity and competitiveness. Both teams had a multitude of different ways to scare opponents offensively.

By the numbers: Both teams led the league in runs batted in, hits, OPS, total bases, and extra base hits. Both teams were leading their division up to this point in the season (2018 season isn’t 100% over yet). These teams were offensive power houses that American League teams were scared to pitch against.

Both teams provided some serious defense as well. It wasn’t always about amazing run support. The pair of teams had a stud patrolling in right field (2018 Betts, 2003 Nixon). Both teams had a perennial shortstop (Bogaerts, Garciaparra). Both teams had a highly regarded designated hitter (Martinez, Giambi). Finally, both teams made a very questionable move during the season (2018 cutting Hanley, 2003 signing David Ortiz).

In both cases they had their first seasons with an incredible duo. After the signing of David Ortiz to pair with Ramirez the tandem would go on to ravage pitchers for years. Most would regard the two as the best 3 and 4 hitter combo of all time. In 2018, the J.D and Mookie combo offers hope of a new duo equal to that of the deadly 2003 pair. Offering up a different approach to the game, this duo can hit, work the count, and launch home runs with the best of them.

Some differences that should be highlighted.

One of the biggest differences were the managers. Grady little led the team in 2003. After a controversial ending to their season he was heavily blamed for not cruising by the Yankees. This led to his timely firing by Theo Epstein and company. Which led to the hiring of legendary manager Terry Francona.

In 2018 the Red Sox are led by Alex Cora, the former bench coach of the defending World Series Champion Houston Astros. He is way ahead of his time. In implementing his system, his bench coaches and assistants utilize new forms of measurements in the game. Using new revelations such as: launch angle, statcast, war, and other forms of saber metrics. He is one of the main reasons why this 2018 team is on the verge of making history.

Comparing managers and General managers.

As for the general managers, they too take separate approaches. Theo was a free agent build type of guy, along with an incredible farm system. That’s how he also made the Chicago Cubs a world series champion. He is also one of the youngest general managers to win a World Series, as well.

On the other hand, Dave Dombrowski also has a winning approach. Dombrowski arrived after the departure of former GM Ben Cherington. He built the franchise into a winning culture in a matter of two seasons. While most people note the demolition of the farm system, it is slowly building itself back up with great draft additions such as Tristan Casas. Dave has also won a title with the then Florida Marlins, who now are called the Miami Marlins.

Even the fact that it seems like a different era of baseball is very prevalent. Pitchers are throwing harder, while also not staying in the game as long as they used to. Guys like Nolan Ryan and Greg Maddox were pitching a lot more innings a season.

The MLB commissioner office seems like it is always trying to speed up the game, while not being as concerned with more pressing matters such as PEDs and off the field incidents. As long as the commissioner can stay focused on the most important matters the sport can continue to grow and be more fun for generations to come.

Conclusion.

While both teams are strikingly similar, the differences stand out well. The 2018 team is more aggressive on the base paths, and are much faster. That comes with the evolution of the game. This team is also a lot younger than Red Sox teams of years past. This 2018 team looks very hungry, but hopefully the outcome will differ from the fate of the 2003 team.

While the 2018 season is still heating up, how it will be written among the other Red Sox teams will soon come into fruition. Keep it here for the best coverage of all your favorite Boston teams and players. Only at Bostonsportsextra.com

Do the Red Sox Have a Balance Problem?

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There’s no denying that the Red Sox possess one of the most potent offenses in Major League Baseball. That’s what you get when you put together a lineup anchored by MVP favorite Mookie Betts and destroyer-of-right-field-bleacher-creatures J.D. Martinez. As of Saturday morning, the Sox rank:

  • 2nd in the Majors in runs
  • 2nd in HR
  • 3rd in SB
  • 2nd in ISO
  • 2nd in batting average
  • 4th in OBP
  • 2nd in slugging (and 2nd in OPS)
  • 3rd in wRC+

I could go on, but you get the picture. Boston’s ability to score repeatedly is one of the main reasons why they have the most wins in baseball and the second-best run differential. Yet, while the overall performance of the lineup on a night-to-night basis has been a strength, there are a few red flags regarding the sustainability of its production. Most immediately pressing? A void between the “good” and the “bad” so wide and deep that Michael Cera or Aziz Ansari might crawl out of it at any moment.

Highs and Lows

Here’s the Red Sox most-used lineup this season, substituting Mitch Moreland for the recently deposed Hanley Ramirez (wRC+ and plate appearances in parentheses):

  1. Betts (204 in 232 PA)
  2. Andrew Benintendi (149 in 300 PA)
  3. Moreland (137 in 197 PA)
  4. Martinez (177 in 286 PA)
  5. Xander Bogaerts (130 in 237 PA)
  6. Rafael Devers (83 in 281 PA)
  7. Eduardo Nunez (66 in 254 PA)
  8. Jackie Bradley Jr. (57 in 229 PA)
  9. Christian Vazquez (47 in 177 PA)

As for other players with more than 50 PA this year, only Brock Holt (120 in 133 PA) has a wRC+ over 100. The next highest non-regular still with the team? Sandy Leon, whose 58 wRC+ is somehow still 45 points better than poor Blake Swihart‘s 13(!?!?!?!?!?!?) in 70 plate appearances. A full explanation on wRC+ can be found here for the uninitiated, but it is useful because it serves as an all-encompassing stat that takes into account criteria like era, park factors, and total offensive performance. League average for any given season is an even 100. The best season per this metric: 2001 Barry Bonds (an astonishing 244 wRC+, or 144% better than league average). The worst (min 300 PA)? 1909 Bill Bergen (an equally astonishing 5 wRC+, or 95% worse than league average).

Worth Worrying About?

All of this is to say that the Red Sox could do with taking a page out of Thanos’ book. While Betts’ transcendent season has lifted the lineup from the jump, the gap between the haves and have-nots is alarming enough to start an Occupy Jersey Street movement at any moment. It’s great that Benintendi has slashed .340/.421/.673 since May 5th, and that Martinez is so comfortable in this lineup he’s moved on to fixing other guys’ swings. However, when almost than half of the everyday starters are producing at well below league average, it tempers expectations a bit. Can the bottom part of the order really be relied on come October? Is Holt really going to be the biggest PH threat off the bench all season? Will Dustin Pedroia ever come back, and if (when) Martinez makes his annual trip to the DL, who will step up?

The Sox don’t have those answers yet. As they make their way towards the dog days of summer, it might not even matter. But last night’s game in Seattle highlighted just how frustrating a lopsided lineup can be. Boston touched up AL Cy Young Award contender James Paxton for 6 runs (5 earned) in the 3rd inning. It was the only frame in which they scored, and the Mariners were able to stage a late inning rally against Heath Hembree and Matt Barnes as a result. With 6 weeks left until the July 31st trade deadline, you have to think Dave Dombrowski will take a hard look at balancing out this roster. After all, this team isn’t supposed to be satisfied with beating good teams in June. It’s meant to beat great teams in the fall.