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Red Sox Confused, Worried, Anxious

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Have you ever been in a workplace where one person was promoted while another was passed over? Have you ever lost out to someone else when pursuing the same romantic connection? Have you ever worried about your future? The impending deadline for many Red Sox contracts is the elephant in the room. Here are the dynamics.

Chris Sale

Chris Sale got a hefty 5 year $150 Million extension. In the abstract this is a great deal. Sale is an all time pitcher for many reasons, and it’s only the 37th ranked deal in major league history. Considering how good Sale has been, and how most of the top deals are happening now, it was a nice job by Dombrowski.

If everything was going well, if the team was even .500, Sale’s slow start would be no big deal. He’s taking it slow. He’s really just had his third spring training start. He’ll be throwing 99 in September and October.

But things are not going well. Which opens the door for 2nd guessing. And not just by the media and fans.

Xander Bogaerts

Again, in a vacuum, a great deal. He’s only tied for #62 on the all time list. And he’s four years younger than Sale, and repped by Scott Boras. He’s a two time champ playing a premium position and one of the top Shortstops in the game. Record contracts are being handed out, and Dombrowski got him for 6 years, $120 Million. That’s actually a bargain.

He’s playing fine. He’s hitting .280 with an .899 OPS. That’s more than fine. But if he’s not worried about living up to his (underpaid but life changing) contract, does he run on Roman Laureano the second time?

Jackie Bradley Jr. and Mookie Betts

Bradley and Betts both have one year of arbitration left. But beyond Bogaerts and Sale, players all over baseball are getting contracts, including buying out the last year of arbitration. A lot of those players don’t have World Series rings on their resume.

Both of them are stubborn in their own way. Last year Jackie would brush away changing his swing due to shifts, and Mookie is turning down $200 Million deals because he thinks he’s worth more. Xander $120, Mookie $200 looks about right from here. But Mookie is looking at Mike Trout’s $426 Million.

Are they thinking about their contracts when they are not once, but twice, not communicating in the outfield? Were they questioning turning down contracts or how they deserve more? The first time they banged into each other, but the ball was caught. The second time it bounced between them for a two run double while they stood there. Somewhere in the Statcast universe there was a machine screaming that there was an 89% chance that ball would be caught.

And did Betts have his head on straight when he challenged the clearly greatest outfield defender of our generation Roman Laureno in the 9th inning?

Either way, now we’re here:

Rick Porcello

Porcello has been the perfect #3 starter for this team. Yes, he won a Cy Young when everything went perfectly, but he’s the steady guy who’s going to make 30 plus starts and never go on the Injured List.

One secret to his success is control. When do we loose control? When we are worried and anxious and unsure of our future. When things are uncertain. Porcello is up after 2019. He’s practically begged to be signed, saying he would give a hometown discount. And couldn’t Porcello say to himself that he’s never had to go on the Injured List. He’s actually won a Cy Young. Couldn’t he be looking sideways at Chris Sale and saying to himself “This guy gets paid but I don’t?” Don’t quote me on this, but I believe Porcello was one of the few pitchers not in the room when Sale’s extension was announced.

Yesterday was the first time since he was a young pup of 23 in 2012 that Porcello has walked at least 3 batters in back to back games. That’s one way of loosing control. Here’s another:

Some say this is a 2018 World Series hangover. From here this is a mass of confusion, worrying and anxiety about contracts.

It can be fixed. These guys have to have some pride right? It’s a 4.5 game deficit to first in the AL East right now. That’s not insurmountable, and so far the guys are healthy. But they better wake up soon.

Photo by Kim Klement – USA Today Sports

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Should The Red Sox Go After Noah Syndergaard?

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The Baseball Hot Stove is beginning. It’s winter, so warm up.  There are reports out there that the New York Mets are open to trading Noah Syndergaard.  Could Thor be in the Red Sox future?  Cue the Led Zeppelin and put on your mittens while we take a look.

Syndergaard’s Injuries

Noah Syndergaard has had a number of injuries, but his ‘injury prone‘ label is unwarranted.  In May of 2018, he had a strained ligament in his right index finger.  It’s unknown how he did it, perhaps playing Fortnite or Red Dead Redemption 2 a little too vigorously, but it held him out six weeks.  Then in late July, he suffered from the plague that hit New York pitchers hard: Hand, Foot and Mouth disease.  The scourge of toddlers may be embarrassing, but it’s hardly a long-term problem.

The major injury for Thor was a strained right lat muscle in May of 2017.  I’m not a doctor, so the details are a bit beyond me, but the bottom line is he did not need surgery.  Furthermore, this was not a rotator cuff or elbow injury.  Yes, it wiped out most of his 2017, but there has been no recurrence of the injury.

Contract Status

Because he missed the bulk of 2017, Noah Syndergaard has an incredibly affordable contract for someone of his stature.  He still has three years of arbitration ahead of him, and he’s starting 2019 from the low rung of $2.975 Million.

That means that even if he performs like a Cy Young candidate in 2019 and 2020 he still won’t be breaking the bank.  In short, this man is probably the best bargain in baseball as long as he’s healthy.  And it appears that he is.

End Of 2018 Performance

Syndergaard had a rough August as his body recovered from sickness, but he poured it on in September.  He went 4-1 with two complete games, including a shutout to end the season.  His Statcast average pitch speed was over 97 MPH on his fastball, so he’s still throwing much harder than the average incredible baseball player who is on any Major League roster.

On September 14th, Noah Syndergaard came to Fenway Park and pitched a beauty against arguably the greatest Red Sox team of all time.  7 innings, 3 hits, 6 strikeouts.  After the performance he tweeted out this nugget of a tantalizing possibility:

I’m sorry, but in light of the rumors of his availability, can I freak out now?

How He Fits On The Red Sox

It’s no secret that the Red Sox have a rather large bill coming due at the end of 2019.  Chris Sale’s contract is up.  Xander Bogaerts is hitting free agency.  JD Martinez has an opt-out in his contract.  Mookie Betts even now is looking to break records in arbitration.

As stated above, Syndergaard is cost controlled.  So while he is at that $2.975 Million number and coming off a season where he missed some time and made only 25 starts, Mookie is at $10.5 Million and coming off an MVP season.  The lower you start from in arbitration, the lower you end up the next year, and vice versa.

For a Red Sox team that is paying David Price over $30 Million, with at least that much needing to go to Chris Sale if they want to keep him, Syndergaard is a dream contract.  Furthermore, there is no starting pitcher depth in the Red Sox minor league system.  Low-cost young stars are the lifeblood of successful major league teams.  Noah Syndergaard is the very essence of the solution to these problems.

For these reasons, he won’t come cheap.

What A Trade Would Look Like

Alarmingly, the Red Sox main competition in the American League are pegged as landing spots for Syndergaard.  But the possible assets from the Yankees and Astros can’t measure up to the firepower the Red Sox can offer.

I was willing to trade Rafael Devers for very few players.  Kris Bryant was one of those players.  That is because Bryant is young and an MVP winner and perennial MVP candidate.  But Bryant would cost a lot soon.  Syndergaard is almost the equivalent as a pitcher that Bryant is as a batter and third baseman, and he’s cheap.

I’m also an advocate for taking advantage of Christian Vazquez’s value at this moment in time.

The Mets are working on getting 3B David Wright’s contract off their books.  They also have a hole at catcher.

I think the framework is there for a Rafael Devers and Christian Vazquez for Noah Syndergaard swap.  I do know that this is a trade that meets what the Mets may be looking for.

This would be a major shake-up of the future of the Red Sox.  Most likely this would mean the Sox would not be in on Nathan Eovaldi, the Sox number one target of this offseason, but maybe not.  It would definitely mean letting go of all the potential and promise of Rafael Devers.  Perhaps there’s a certain swiss army knife, who’s won a recent World Series with Alex Cora, the Sox could sign to play third?

The Mets GM, Brodie Van Wagenen, is an unknown entity at the moment.  There’s no telling what he may do, but he is contacting a lot of starting pitchers’ agents.  It certainly appears he’s readying to trade Thor.

Think of top of this rotation on opening day: Chris Sale, Noah Syndergaard, David Price.  Kind of makes the drool flow freely from your gaping mouth right?

Comparing The 2003 Red Sox to The 2018 Red Sox

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While nearly 15 years has separated these two teams, there are a lot of similarities between them. With what appears to be two different ages of baseball, what can we take away from the ages?

The opening day lineups.

In 2003, The opening day lineup looked like this. 1. Johnny Damon CF, 2. Todd Walker 2B, 3. Nomar Garciaparra SS, 4. Manny Ramirez LF, 5. Kevin Millar 1B, 6. Shea Hillenbrand 3B, 7. Jeremy Giambi DH, 8. Trot Nixon RF, 9. Jason Varitek C Starting Pitcher Pedro Martinez.

This lineup had it all.  They had key veteran players to build around. They had speed, raw power, and most of all talent. This team was poised to make a deep October run until the rival Yankees ended it on a sour note. The 2004 team would eventually reverse the 86 year long drought. After that “The Curse of The Great Bambino” was over.

This season, the Opening Day lineup consisted of 1. Mookie Betts RF, 2. Andrew Benintendi LF, 3. Hanley Ramirez 1B ( not on the team anymore.) 4. J.D Martinez DH, 5. Xander Bogaerts SS, 6. Rafael Devers 3B, 7. Eduardo Nunez 2B, 8. Jackie Bradley Jr. CF, 9. Christian Vazquez C. Starting Pitcher Chris Sale. 

The Similarities.

This team also has raw power and speed. Their ace Chris Sale is most comparable to Pedro Martinez in his intensity and competitiveness. Both teams had a multitude of different ways to scare opponents offensively.

By the numbers: Both teams led the league in runs batted in, hits, OPS, total bases, and extra base hits. Both teams were leading their division up to this point in the season (2018 season isn’t 100% over yet). These teams were offensive power houses that American League teams were scared to pitch against.

Both teams provided some serious defense as well. It wasn’t always about amazing run support. The pair of teams had a stud patrolling in right field (2018 Betts, 2003 Nixon). Both teams had a perennial shortstop (Bogaerts, Garciaparra). Both teams had a highly regarded designated hitter (Martinez, Giambi). Finally, both teams made a very questionable move during the season (2018 cutting Hanley, 2003 signing David Ortiz).

In both cases they had their first seasons with an incredible duo. After the signing of David Ortiz to pair with Ramirez the tandem would go on to ravage pitchers for years. Most would regard the two as the best 3 and 4 hitter combo of all time. In 2018, the J.D and Mookie combo offers hope of a new duo equal to that of the deadly 2003 pair. Offering up a different approach to the game, this duo can hit, work the count, and launch home runs with the best of them.

Some differences that should be highlighted.

One of the biggest differences were the managers. Grady little led the team in 2003. After a controversial ending to their season he was heavily blamed for not cruising by the Yankees. This led to his timely firing by Theo Epstein and company. Which led to the hiring of legendary manager Terry Francona.

In 2018 the Red Sox are led by Alex Cora, the former bench coach of the defending World Series Champion Houston Astros. He is way ahead of his time. In implementing his system, his bench coaches and assistants utilize new forms of measurements in the game. Using new revelations such as: launch angle, statcast, war, and other forms of saber metrics. He is one of the main reasons why this 2018 team is on the verge of making history.

Comparing managers and General managers.

As for the general managers, they too take separate approaches. Theo was a free agent build type of guy, along with an incredible farm system. That’s how he also made the Chicago Cubs a world series champion. He is also one of the youngest general managers to win a World Series, as well.

On the other hand, Dave Dombrowski also has a winning approach. Dombrowski arrived after the departure of former GM Ben Cherington. He built the franchise into a winning culture in a matter of two seasons. While most people note the demolition of the farm system, it is slowly building itself back up with great draft additions such as Tristan Casas. Dave has also won a title with the then Florida Marlins, who now are called the Miami Marlins.

Even the fact that it seems like a different era of baseball is very prevalent. Pitchers are throwing harder, while also not staying in the game as long as they used to. Guys like Nolan Ryan and Greg Maddox were pitching a lot more innings a season.

The MLB commissioner office seems like it is always trying to speed up the game, while not being as concerned with more pressing matters such as PEDs and off the field incidents. As long as the commissioner can stay focused on the most important matters the sport can continue to grow and be more fun for generations to come.

Conclusion.

While both teams are strikingly similar, the differences stand out well. The 2018 team is more aggressive on the base paths, and are much faster. That comes with the evolution of the game. This team is also a lot younger than Red Sox teams of years past. This 2018 team looks very hungry, but hopefully the outcome will differ from the fate of the 2003 team.

While the 2018 season is still heating up, how it will be written among the other Red Sox teams will soon come into fruition. Keep it here for the best coverage of all your favorite Boston teams and players. Only at Bostonsportsextra.com