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2018: The Year of Bogaerts

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After an offensive dive last season, 2018 is primed to be they breakout year we’ve all been waiting for when it comes to Xander Bogaerts.

After a season in which he suffered a hand injury, Bogaerts’s numbers hurt as well. In 2017, Xander hit .273 with 10 homers and 62 RBIs. Those numbers are surprisingly low following his amazing 2016 season, when he hit 21 homers and 89 RBIs to go along with a .294 batting average. With new manager Alex Cora in the mix, Xander Bogaerts is primed to have a career year.

Although spring training to me doesn’t evaluate much besides the prospects, X man is showing signs of prosperity. The starting shortstop is locating the pitches and shows flashes of the power that got his signed when he was 16. The Aruba native will only make $7,500,000 this season, and will become an unrestricted free agent after 2019. With super agent Scott Boras handling negotiations, odds are there will be no talks of an extension anytime soon.

Over the years his defense has improved. It can only get better from here. While being able to cover most of the left side of the field, he covers the middle as well. Compared to shortstops such as Correa, Lindor, and Simmons, Bogaerts is the cheaper option. What he makes up for in savings won’t deteriorate his value. He can slap the ball anywhere on the field with great precision.

While he could easily command a six year, $125 million deal, the potential is there with room for improvement. No fan of the sport has seen his ceiling. This could be the year he stays consistent throughout the entirety of the season.

Stat line Prediction for 2018:  

.313 BA, 26 home runs, 97 RBIs 

This prediction relies heavily on his health and consistency. These numbers could be achievable with having a clubhouse factor such as David Ortiz popping in as a player consultant this season. With all eyes pointed on New York, look out for Boston to defend their AL East crown?

 

The Case for Xander Bogaerts Hitting Leadoff

The end of the 2017 season was disappointing for the Red Sox. The team looked worn down and crawled to the finish line. Not much went right in the last month, as the Red Sox were quickly eliminated from postseason contention. However, there was one good development from that September. Shortstop Xander Bogaerts became the leadoff hitter, and he thrived in the role. Moving forward, the Red Sox should keep Xander Bogaerts hitting leadoff.

The Case for Xander Bogaerts Hitting Leadoff

Boston will most likely have Mookie Betts be the leadoff hitter, and it’s hard to call if it that’s the wrong move or not. Betts has been the primary leadoff hitter since 2015, and has done a great job with the role. Mookie’s been the leadoff hitter 190 times in the past two seasons. He finished second in MVP voting in 2016 and established himself as one of the best ballplayers in baseball, so it’s clearly working for him.

Moving Mookie Down

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Mookie Betts will perform regardless of his spot in the order

Image credit: USA Today

However, Mookie may be too good of a hitter to be leadoff. Mookie has the most home runs on the Red Sox since 2015. While he won’t be the best power bat now that the Sox have J.D. Martinez, he’s still too powerful for the leadoff spot. With Mookie hitting first, there aren’t as many runners to drive in. If Mookie were moved down to third in the lineup, he would typically have more runners on base, and thus could use his power to drive in more runs.

Some players, for whatever reason, don’t perform as well when moved in the lineup. Historically, Mookie hasn’t had that problem. Mookie’s shifted down in the lineup before, and he’s remained essentially the same hitter. In 2017, he posted a .266/.341/.474 slash line when hitting first compared to a .270/.355/.461 line when hitting third. 2016 was more of the same, as Mookie hit .314/.355/.546 leading off and .314/.333/.529 hitting third.

Moving Xander Up

Mookie will thrive regardless of where he hits, so why would Bogaerts be a better fit to lead off? The most obvious answer comes from the end of last season. He only led off in 28 games, which is an admittedly small sample size, but the results were encouraging.

In those 28 games, Bogaerts put up .309/.406/.418 slash line. In every other game of the season, Bogaerts put up a combined .265/.327/.399 slash. His numbers skyrocketed at leadoff, but the jump is even more impressive when factoring when Bogaerts started hitting leadoff. It’s no secret that Bogaerts slumps towards the end of the season; it’s been an issue almost every season he’s been in the majors. However, something about hitting leadoff made Bogaerts break out of his slump and put up some good numbers.

As mentioned earlier, Bogaerts played only 28 games as the leadoff hitter, and it’s hard to interpolate a sample size that small into a full season. However, Bogaerts’s hitting style suggests that his success as a leadoff hitter wasn’t a fluke.

The most important quality of a leadoff hitter is to get on base, and that’s where Bogaerts thrives. The shortstop has led the team in batting average in two of the last three seasons, and is one of the best two strike hitters in the league. Bogaerts’s skill set has grown rare in the juiced ball era, and there aren’t many players left capable of taking a tough two strike pitch and getting an opposite field single or double.

Bogaerts will also likely benefit from Alex Cora’s philosophical change of attacking good pitches. Former manager John Farrell believed in working the count to a stubborn degree, and consistently left his players down in the count. Bogaerts is a great contact hitter, and now he can swing at any pitch he wants. This should lead to a rise in his batting average and slugging percentage, which makes him even more valuable as a leadoff hitter.

Bogaerts, Betts, and the Offense

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Image credit: MassLive

Ultimately, there’s no bad choice here. This offense is stacked with talent, and runs should come regardless of who hits where. However, the best lineup features Bogaerts leading off and Mookie in the three spot. Mookie has too much power to lead off, which actively takes runs off the board. Bogaerts is too good at getting on base, and his ability would be wasted hitting him in the six hole. It wouldn’t be the safe move, but it is the right move.

 

Cover image courtesy of overthemonster.com

The Boston Red Sox Have No Ceiling

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The Boston Red Sox won 93 games and a division title last season, and they’ve only gotten better. The offense underachieved last season, and just about every player will probably increase their production in 2018. They’ve replaced John Farrell with a younger manager who better fits the team in Alex Cora. This alone guaranteed the Red Sox would be a good team in 2018. After bringing on JD Martinez, the 2018 Boston Red Sox have no ceiling

The Missing Power

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JD Martinez is finally a Red Sox!

Image Credit: Yahoo Sports

The Boston Red Sox put up the sixth most runs in the American League last season, but the offense as a whole didn’t feel that great. This was due to the fact the Red Sox finished dead last in the AL in home runs. They could mash singles and doubles, but they lacked a guy that could change a games outcome with just a swing of a bat.

After a long and tedious offseason, that need has finally been met. The Red Sox signed the best power hitter on the market, JD Martinez, to a very reasonable five-year deal for $110 million. It’s no secret that the Red Sox wanted him from the start of free agency, but they played their cards right. Instead of overpaying, they got their top free agent on a deal that won’t burden the team years down the line.

And boy does Martinez fill a need. Martinez has hit 105 home runs in the past three seasons. By comparison, Mookie Betts is the next closest on the Red Sox with 73 homers. Martinez is more than a one-trick pony, as his average slash line over the past three seasons has been .297/.364/.586. He’s not just a great power hitter, he’s a great all-around hitter. Players capable of hitting for power and average are becoming increasingly hard to find, and the Sox found one.

Internal Offensive Improvements

As mentioned earlier, the Red Sox offense as a whole regressed in 2017. Just about everyone underperformed from their previous seasons. The Red Sox young core of Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, and Jackie Bradley Jr. are projected by just about every source to improve on their 2017 season. Hanley Ramirez has changed his offseason workout regimen, and there’s plenty of reason to believe he’ll have a great bounce back year.

While the established players should bounce back, two very young players should continue to improve. Left fielder Andrew Benintendi and third baseman Rafael Devers are entering their second full year in the pros, and should play huge roles in the team’s success.

Benintendi had a good 2017, finishing second in the rookie of the year voting to Yankees slugger Aaron Judge. However, his season was streaky and he went through the normal highs and lows of being a rookie. Those lows shouldn’t be as low or last as long with a full year under his belt. Outside of Mookie, Benintendi could be the best all-around player on the Red Sox. He could even make an MVP push if everything breaks right.

The Devers Factor

Devers could make an even bigger impact. The third baseman was promoted to the majors at age 20 after just one week in AAA Pawtucket simply because the Red Sox third base situation was that bad. Most any other player would struggle given such a drastic rise in competition, but Devers thrived. His major league career began with a home run, and he never slowed as the season went on.

Devers became arguably the best power bat on the 2017 Red Sox. In just 58 games, the Red Sox rookie hit 10 home runs with a .284/.338/.442 slash line. He had a knack for big moment plays, most notably his homer against Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman and his inside the park homer against the Houston Astros in the playoffs. This is great production for any rookie, nevermind a 20-year old who got called up primarily out of desperation.

His fielding needs some work, but that should improve with time. He’ll never win a gold glove, but he should figure out how to be a major league fielder. Obviously, major league players hit the ball a lot harder than the AA guys he faced the first half of the season. He made a few great defensive plays his rookie year, and his mechanics should improve with time.

Even if you don’t believe Devers can match his rookie production, there’s no way he can be worse than what the Red Sox sent out in 2017. In his half season in the pros, Devers compiled a respectable 0.9 WAR. By comparison, the primary third base options in the beginning of that season (Tsu-Wei Lin, Devin Marrero, Pablo Sandoval, Brock Holt) put up a combined -0.8 WAR. By default, Devers at third will be better than whatever the alternative is.

The Starting Pitching

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As great as the lineup is, the rotation is just as good

Image credit: Boston Herald

While the offense struggled in 2017, the starting pitching was mostly dominant, and most of those pieces are returning healthier than ever. Chris Sale and a now-healthy David Price are arguably the best one-two combination in baseball. Sale is a top-five pitcher, and should be in the Cy Young running again. Price isn’t what he was, but he’s still a great pitcher who would be the ace on most teams. His elbow is a concern, but as long as he’s healthy he should remain one of the best #2 starters in baseball.

The crew behind that duo is pretty impressive. Drew Pomeranz probably won’t be able to match his 2017 production, but he’s still a safe bet to finish the season with a 3.50-3.70 ERA and get six to seven innings a start. That’s the recipe for a good third starter. Contrarily, Rick Porcello will almost certainly not be as bad in 2018 as he was in 2017. He probably won’t win the Cy Young again, but he doesn’t need to. Expect Porcello to finish the season with an ERA around 4 and eat at least six innings every time he gets the ball.

The biggest wild card here is what Eduardo Rodriguez can do. He’s flashed his huge ceiling ever since being called up in 2015, but injuries and inconsistency have plagued the pitcher. He will miss part of the season with a knee injury, but expect big things when he comes back. A new manager might just be the change E-Rod needs to finally break out and become the pitcher he’s capable of. If he can do that, he immediately becomes the #3 guy in the rotation.

The Depth Starters

The Red Sox have their top five set in stone, but all five won’t be healthy for all 162 games. Fortunately, the Red Sox are pretty well set with their backup plans. Knuckleballer Steven Wright has performed well in the past as a starter, and will likely take E-Rod’s spot in the rotation while he gets healthy. It looks as though Wright has finally put his shoulder injury behind him, which bodes well for the Red Sox. The last time Wright was healthy was in the first half of 2016, when he earned a spot at the All-Star game.

The Red Sox are pretty well set even if calamity strikes and they need two spot starters at once. Both Hector Velasquez and Brian Johnson have shown they’re capable of performing adequately when their number is called. While neither player should be used as anything other than a last resort, they’re both capable of starting a major league game and keeping the Sox in it.

The Bullpen

This is arguably the weakest part of the Red Sox roster, which says a lot about how strong every other part of the Red Sox is. The Sox still have a top-five closer in Craig Kimbrel, and it sounds like Cora is willing to use him in more than just save situations. Kimbrel has been one of the best relievers in baseball for years, and that shouldn’t change now.

Addison Reed left in the offseason, but the duo of Carson Smith and Tyler Thornberg will fill his role. Smith looked as advertised in limited outings last season, and Thornberg had a great 2016 with the Milwaukee Brewers before missing all of 2017. All three aforementioned arms can blow up the radar gun and could prove to be a dominant grouping in the final three innings of the game.

The guys behind the top three aren’t bad either. Joe Kelly, Brandon Workman, and Matt Barnes all have their flaws and limitations, but each has shown flashes of brilliance. Each can come into a game early and keep the now-explosive Red Sox offense in it. Of this group, Workman has the highest upside.

Injuries robbed Workman of his 2015 and 2016 seasons after a failed attempt at being a starter in 2014. Workman faltered down the stretch, posting a 6.10 ERA in September and October. Before that, though, Workman put up a very impressive 2.15 ERA in 29.1 innings of relief. Workman’s late season skid was probably due to fatigue; he hadn’t pitched in the majors since 2014. If Workman can come back and last a full season, the Red Sox have yet another dangerous arm.

The Competition

The Red Sox are a very good team and could very easily break 100 wins if everything goes their way. However, don’t plan the World Series parade yet. The AL is stacked with high talent teams, and 2018 should be a great season for baseball.

The reigning champion Houston Astros are the team to beat, and they’re not going anywhere. Superstars Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa will wreak havoc on the league for the next decade. Their championship wasn’t a fluke, and it wouldn’t surprise anyone if the Astros went back to back.

The New York Yankees have an impressive young core of sluggers, and just added NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton. The Cleveland Indians remain an incredibly difficult team to beat as long as it’s not an elimination game. Just like 2017, these three teams and the Red Sox should make up the top four American League teams.

The Red Sox are now on that level. Sure, they won the division last season, but everyone knew what was awaiting them in the playoffs. This year, a division title isn’t the best case scenario. With a new power hitter, offensive improvements from within, and a great group of pitchers, these Red Sox are ready to challenge for a World Series title.

 

Cover image courtesy of MassLive.com.

Masslive photo J.D. Martinez

J.D. Martinez Is Not the Only Way Boston Can Return to Contention

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I will be the first person to tell you how badly the Red Sox need a bat like J.D. Martinez’s in order to make a deep run in the playoffs. This article isn’t going to back up the opinion that this team, as built, is ready to contend with NYY/WAS/LAD/HOU.

Down Year 2017

All of last season, the void that David Ortiz left in the lineup went unfilled. There was a clear home run surge in the MLB last year, and Boston was left out.

Jackie Bradley Jr. had a season that earned him a spot on Yahoo’s “most overrated players in the MLB” list. Something JBJ looks to use as motivation to get back on track this season: 

Xander Bogaerts was snuffed by a lingering hand injury last year. One that even he says he probably shouldn’t have played through. On regaining some pop after recovering from his hand injury, Bogaerts said, “I’m not saying I’m going out and hitting 60 like Stanton or something, but I can definitely go out there and put up the same numbers as ‘16, maybe a little bit better”. In 2016, the season Xander is referring to, he smacked 21 home runs.

Hanley Ramirez was battling a shoulder injury from right out the gate last season. In an interview, Hanley said that he plans on playing another ‘10 years’ and sees himself returning to ‘Miami Hanley’ this year.

After being an A.L. MVP candidate in 2016, Betts batted .318 with 31 HR and 113 RBI. He as well found himself slumping (by his standards) in 2017 where he batted .264 and had less home runs and RBI’s.

In the Red Sox first season without their locker room leader and best slugger in the middle of the lineup, four other key parts of their lineup found themselves in down years… Boston still managed to win 93 games.

As it stands right now, Boston is still the favorite to sign J.D. Martinez. If Boston snags J.D., and gets bounce-back seasons from at least three of the four guys listed above, they will have submitted themselves back into the World Series discussion.

Alternative to J.D. Martinez

Let’s say that Arizona ends up bringing back J.D. Martinez.

The reaction to spring training thus far has been less than enthusiastic for most Red Sox fans. People have already mailed in the season because the Bronx got Stanton.

This Red Sox roster is a good one. It may not be a world series contender, but it doesn’t have to be.

They are a wild card team as is, and with good years from Bogaerts/Bradley/Betts, they could potentially snag the division.

Trade Deadline

What I am getting at, is that this roster doesn’t need to add anybody right now. It can wait until the trade deadline. I once wrote an article, here, where I went over every single trade deadline that Dave Dombrowski has been in charge for, and you will see that he has never left a deadline without filling the team’s needs.

If for some reason the Red Sox miss out on Martinez, waiting until the deadline is something that can benefit them. This would give Dombrowski a chance to see the team play this year. By doing so, he can get a better feel for their needs.

Another reason that waiting for the trade deadline may be a good idea is that the impending free agency for next year is loaded. Free agency has a huge impact on the trade deadline. Teams that have players with contracts that are expiring are more willing to move them at the deadline instead of potentially losing them for almost nothing in free agency.

This list of impending free agents that could be dealt at the trade deadline include the likes of Manny Machado, Josh Donaldson, Nelson Cruz, Ian Kinsler, and Brian Dozier. All of these players, some for a greater price than others, could be brought in for a playoff run to help this team.

Boston Will Be Fine

Whichever way Boston ends up going, do not give up on this team yet. They managed to win 93 games in a season with a poor manager, locker room drama, and serious lineup slumps. Not to mention they had a down year from their 2016 Cy Young winner, Rick Porcello. Also, Boston lost both Steven Wright and ‘Ace’ David Price to injuries for all if not most of the season.

If J.D. Martinez ends up donning a Red Sox uniform, they will be locked and loaded from game one. If they lose out on J.D Martinez, Boston has the juice to get to the trade deadline, where Dave Dombrowski can load up for a playoff run.

The Top Shortstops Long-Term

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The shortstop position has become increasingly talented in recent seasons. The position is now the best, and deepest, arguably since Nomar, A-Rod, and Jeter were reigning supreme nearly two decades ago. The top five is loaded, and the position has great depth. The shortstops near the bottom of my top ten list would have threatened the top five a few years ago. Shortstops not making the list would have been safely included. With all this competition, it was hard to leave a few guys off.

1. Carlos Correa

Correa is coming off a season with an OPS 65 points higher than Manny Machado has ever posted. With all of Machado’s fanfare and his big home run seasons, this was a surprising revelation. Just 22 years old last season and having posted a .941 OPS, Correa is the top shortstop to own for the long haul in the Majors.

Correa burst onto the scene in 2015, winning Rookie of the Year in a little more than half a season. Over his three seasons, aged 20-22, he has batted .288 with an .863 OPS. There is only room for improvement as he enters his age 23 season. Correa missed time last year, hitting 24 home runs in only 109 games. Assuming he stays healthy, I foresee his first 30 homer, 100 RBI season this year. Correa has also proved himself on the big stage at such a young age, homering five times during the postseason last year.

Correa is also fairly polished at shortstop at his young age. He has a solid .978 fielding percentage in each of the last two seasons and has a positive dWAR in all three. According to baseball reference’s total zone runs, Correa was worth eight defensive runs above average this past season.

2. Manny Machado

Primarily known as a third baseman, and a fine defensive one at that, Machado is moving to shortstop full time for this coming season. He started 43 games at the position last year, performing adequately but posting a negative zone rating. With a full offseason to prepare, maybe he will be a little better in 2018. After all, Machado was a two time Gold Glove winner at third base.

He also needs to rebound at the plate, coming off his worst season since 2014. That’s not to say he was bad, he did hit 33 homers after all. However, Machado’s average fell from .290 over the previous two seasons down to .259. His OPS also dropped nearly 100 points. I would expect a bit of a rebound, he did finish in the top five in back-to-back MVP votes before last season. Machado has also homered 105 times over the past three years. If there is one place where his skill set lags a bit behind, it’s in taking pitches and drawing walks. Machado has drawn a total of 49 walks over the past two seasons and posted a disappointing .310 on-base percentage last year.

3. Corey Seager

Seager was my favorite prospect in baseball after batting .349 with 20 home runs in 2014. He came in 5th in Baseball America’s prospect rankings heading into 2015, and his performance catapulted him to the top of their list for 2016. Two full seasons into his Major League career and he has not disappointed. Seager has batted .305 during his short career while posting an .876 OPS. He already has a Rookie of the Year, two Silver Sluggers and a third place MVP finish.

Seager has a beautiful, level swing, leading to a lot of hard contact. Despite hitting only 22 home runs, Seager had a top 25 average exit velocity in all of baseball last season. His 25% line drive rate was in the top ten. This leads me to believe that Seager will improve upon both his 22 home runs and his 33 doubles from a year ago. Two years ago he had 26 homers and 40 doubles, and it wouldn’t even be a surprise to see him eclipse those. Even if he doesn’t, Seager is an excellent, well-rounded hitter. He has a .374 career on-base percentage with a .502 slugging percentage.

Seager made some strides in the field last year, which makes sense given he was still only 23 years old. He cut his errors down from 18 to 11 while improving his fielding percentage to .979. Seager also went from two runs saved below average in 2016 to 11 runs above average last year. He might not wow in any one category, but Seager looks like an across the board producer for years to come.

4. Francisco Lindor

Lindor turned into a very different player from the one that he was expected to be last year. Coming through the minors, he was projected to be a high contact hitter who would play excellent defense. That’s exactly what happened his first two years, batting over .300 both seasons with moderate pop. Last year, his average dropped down to .273 while his home runs more than doubled to 33. His doubles also skyrocketed, going from 30 to 44. Lindor seemed to sell out a bit for power, which wasn’t necessary given his excellent performance to that point. It leaves me curious to find out which Lindor we will see moving forward. Either way, both are excellent players.

Lindor is an excellent defender, posting a 5.7 dWAR in less than three full seasons. He has posted a 49 defensive runs saved above average during that time and has a .981 fielding percentage. His glove work netted him the Gold Glove in 2016.

5. Trea Turner

After being a top prospect, Trea Turner has been electric since getting the call to the big leagues. After getting a chance in 2016, Turner was one of the very best hitters in baseball. He batted .342 with a .937 OPS. Trea Turner is also a burner on the basepaths and stole 33 bases that season. Last year, his numbers dropped off a bit, as they almost had to. Turner batted .284 with a .789 OPS while missing some time with injury. He again showed off his wheels, stealing 46 bases in only 98 games.

I don’t think Turner is as good as he was two years ago, but is probably better than last year. When you combine the two seasons, you get a .304 hitter with an .840 OPS. With his gap power and his speed, Turner gets a lot of extra-base hits, averaging 32 doubles and 11 triples over 162 games for his career. He seems to be capable of hitting .300 with 15-20 home runs while hitting a lot of doubles and triples. All of this and he is also capable of stealing 50 bags.

Turner falls well behind the rest of the pack in the field though. Despite being relatively sure-handed, Turner does not have the range for the position. He had a decent .979 fielding percentage last year, yet his total zone rating gave him 11 defensive runs below average last season. His range factor, at 3.91, was easily below the average of 4.15. Second base could be in Trea’s future.

Brad Mills – USA Today Sports

6. Didi Gregorious

Remember when Didi was a glove first prospect? Coming through the minors, he was supposed to be a light-hitting, glove first shortstop. His defense has been decent, but nothing special to this point. However, his bat has carried him. Gregorious is one of the better hitting shortstops in baseball, hitting 45 home runs over the past two seasons. This is after he homered 26 times in over 2000 minor league at-bats. It isn’t just Yankee Stadium either, as Gregorious posted far better stats on the road last year.

One thing that holds Gregorious back some at the plate is his lack of walks. Gregorious has only drawn 44 walks over the past two seasons combined. This has led to a sub-par .311 on-base percentage despite a good .281 batting average. He doesn’t strike out much though, making consistent contact requiring fielders to make a play on the ball. Take the good with the bad and I actually think this Yankee is a little underrated.

7. Paul DeJong

DeJong is a player who wasn’t on the radar of many people last year. He never made any top 100 prospect lists, so he wasn’t well known outside of the St. Louis organization. That’s not to say there isn’t some pedigree to his performance though. DeJong was a fourth round pick in 2015 and hit 22 home runs in AA the following year. Last year he had an OPS over .900 in AAA when he got the call-up to the Cardinals.

DeJong mashed the ball at the big league level, hitting 25 home runs in 108 games. He had a .285 average for the season, so it wasn’t a power or nothing approach. Despite him not cracking any prospect lists, I think based on his high draft position and his performance in the minor leagues that DeJong’s bat is for real. His glove was relatively average based upon every metric, but that kind of bat coupled with an average glove is a heck of a shortstop.

8. Andrelton Simmons

Simmons is on here for one reason; he is one of the best defensive shortstops you will ever see. Simmons routinely makes the highlight reels for the plays he makes in the field. He has a .982 career fielding percentage which doesn’t come close to telling the whole story. Simmons tends to get to a lot of balls others wouldn’t, which can lead to a few more errors. His range is in a class by itself.

Simmons bat took a step forward last year, so it will be interesting to see if the juiced balls helped aid that or if he is making progress. After posting just a .664 OPS over the previous four seasons, Simmons had a career high .752 OPS last year. He hit .278 with 14 home runs a year after batting .281 in his first season with the Angels. He kept his average up from his Atlanta days while adding a little more pop.

9. Xander Bogaerts

Bogaerts is still only 25 despite being a part of the Red Sox World Series team in 2013. There is a pretty good chance I am underselling Bogaerts in this spot, as he was a huge prospect who has proven capable of hitting well in the majors. Bogaerts was twice a top 10 prospect in all of baseball according to Baseball America, topping out at second in 2014. He also has a season in which he batted .320 and another during which he homered 21 times. Bogaerts was off to a good start last year, batting .303 in the first half. A wrist injury caused his hitting ability to fall off in the second half and leave him with a .273 average. A healthy Bogaerts could hit .300 with 20 home runs.

If Bogaerts does rebound at the plate, his glove is still likely to hold him back some. He has a negative dWAR in three of his four seasons and negative defensive runs saved in all four. His .977 career fielding percentage at the position isn’t bad, but his range is well below average.

Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts hits a ground-rule double to right in the ninth inning of the ALCS, Game 4 at Comerica Park against the Tigers in 2013. Staff Photo by Matt Stone

10. Elvis Andrus

Andrus is someone I considered the most overrated shortstop in baseball for a few years. Given a big contract, Andrus batted just .264 with a very weak .657 OPS from 2015-2017. However, Andrus now has two consecutive years of good play at the plate in addition to his defense. After seven years in the league, Andrus batted a career high .302 while also hitting a career high eight home runs in 2016. Yes, eight was his career high after eight seasons and he somehow hit 20 home runs last year. A little change in his approach may have helped, but I am a little skeptical of him repeating that. Even still, he batted .297 a year after hitting .302. He also saved 23 runs above average on defense according to the total zone rating on baseballreference.com.

Honorable Mentions:

Jean Segura, Dansby Swanson, Addison Russell, Zack Cozart, Orlando Arcia, Trevor Story

 

Featured picture from the Sporting News

The Red Sox Are Trying Something New

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When you think of the all-time great Boston Red Sox, there are many players that come to mind. The organization has been blessed with an absurd amount of legends in its long history, from Ted Williams, to Carl Yastrzemski, to Carlton Fisk, to David Ortiz, and countless more. While all those legends are separated by decades, there is one thing that most of them share in common. Outside of Pedro Martinez, the best Sox players were always hitters. Looking at 2018, that probably won’t be the case. The Red Sox are trying something new this season – and that’s ok.

The Red Sox Are Trying Something New

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It may not look like the normal Red Sox team, but there should be a lot of dancing this season 

Image credit: SI.com

Historically, the Red Sox have never made acquiring top pitchers their main priority. Of course, they’ve never turned down signing a good pitcher if one fell into their lap, but generally speaking the organization has always put the focus on getting the best bat instead of the best arm. In 2016, the Red Sox took a turn from history and put more of the focus on pitching. With Ortiz retiring, they knew there would need to be a change in organizational philosophy.

With Ortiz’ departure imminent, the Sox went all in on pitching. Within two years, the Sox had remade their starting rotation. Boston added Chris Sale, David Price, and Drew Pomeranz to join Eddie Rodriguez and Rick Porcello. Additionally, the bullpen has added a series of hard throwing late inning arms to replace the likes of Jean Machi and the corpse of Junichi Tazawa.

Despite winning 93 games and the division title, the Red Sox 2017 season didn’t go as planned. Overall, the pitching held up its end of the bargain, but the offense lacked pop due to the absence of Ortiz along with some regression from the young core. Meanwhile, the Yankees young core had spent all of 2017 destroying baseballs, coming one game shy of the World Series.

Red Sox Nation freaked when the Yankees acquired NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton. The most power happy offense had added the best power hitter from the 2017 season. With all that firepower, there’s no way to think that the Red Sox can produce an offense that could match the Yankees. They can’t, but that’s fine. The Red Sox aren’t trying to, and they shouldn’t.

Where the Red Sox Stand Now

Adding J.D. Martinez would help Boston, but it’s not going to make or break the season. With or without him, Boston will not be able to match the Yankees lineup bat for bat. That’s where the pitching staff comes in. The Sox have a rotation led by two true aces in Chris Sale and David Price. Drew Pomeranz put together a great season last year, and Alex Cora should be the fix that lets Eddie Rodriguez make the leap. Rick Porcello is just one year removed from a Cy Young and will probably be better this year than last.

The bullpen is looking great too. The Sox should look to add another late inning arm, but the bullpen still figures to be a big strength. Craig Kimbrel was the best closer in baseball last year, and Carson Smith looked good in a small sample size. Tyler Thornberg still exists and will be pitching at some point. Joe Kelly and Matt Barnes should never be the top arms in the bullpen, but they’re great depth to have.

The Winning Strategy

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Chris Sale’s arm will play a big role in this teams success

Image credit: NESN.com

The pitching will be enough to keep games close, so the offense doesn’t need to be a juggernaut to win games. Let’s assume the worst case scenario that Martinez doesn’t sign and nobody else is brought in. There would be a relative lack of power, but the Sox would still be in good shape.

Mookie Betts is an annual MVP candidate and will almost certainly be better in 2018 than 2017. Jackie Bradley Jr is streaky, but when he’s hot, he’s nearly unstoppable. Xander Bogaerts won’t ever hit 30 home runs, but he’s got amazing hands and is one of the best at making solid contact and getting on base. His innate ability to get on base and hit to all areas of the park makes him a great fit for the lead-off or second spot. On top of that, his annual second half slump could be a thing of the past now that the Sox have a manager that actually knows when a player needs a rest day.

Young Reinforcements

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Expect this guy to become a household name before long

Image credit: Boston Globe

The established players should bounce back, but the younger players should add a kick of their own too. Andrew Benintendi played incredibly well for a rookie, but he did have his ups and downs. With a full year of the majors under his belt, he should continue his upward trajectory and could even push for the MVP if everything breaks right.

Third baseman Rafael Devers had a steep learning curve in 2017 and played incredibly well. Devers was promoted to the majors after just a week in Triple A after spending the first half of the season in AA ball. Somehow, the jump from AA pitching to major league didn’t affect him. Devers was one of the best power hitters on the team last year, and was responsible for some of the best moments of the season. His defense needs work, but his bat and athleticism have unreal potential.

All in all, this shapes up to be a good offense without accounting for Martinez or another power bat. It’s certainly an offense that’s good enough to compete with a good pitching staff to compliment it. When paired with a great pitching staff, it’s downright scary. It’s not a lineup that looks like a typical Red Sox lineup. It’s something new, but it’s something that should lead to serious World Series contention.

 

Cover image courtesy of Boston.com.

RED SOX HOT STOVE: Who Could Be Leaving Boston

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Every morning I look out my window, see a dark gloomy sky and realize there is no baseball on for the next few months. I watched a rerun of the Red Sox getting spanked in Game 1, against the Astros, in the ALDS. Why? If you clicked on this article, much like myself, you’re missing baseball. Although the offseason is not that good, it’s not that bad since the Hot Stove for trade rumors is constantly on broil. Since this team is not the top World Series team going into the season, there are some pieces that need to be moved to get to that level. Here are some of the Red Sox players I can see packing their bags this offseason:

Sam Travis:

It’s sad to see Sam Travis on this list for me. Aside from any new acquisitions, he was the most talked about player all spring last year. He hit a hand full of home runs, and became the instant thought of power for the future, well before Devers. It certainly didn’t carry into the regular season. Travis hit .263, in only 76 at-bats. In those at-bats, the one stat that mattered most with Dr.Chill, is 0 HR. I personally believe we are going to have another year of Mitch Moreland being the first baseman due to his season last year. There still is a lot of value with Travis, and I could see him in a deal to get immediate power.

Christian Vazquez:

This one may seem strange for people who watched Christian Vazquez in 2017, but this is exactly why I could see him hitting the road. Vazquez hit a clean .290 AVG this year, and although he only hit 5 HR, I think I can remember each one. Two of them were walk-offs, and at home, Vazquez came to ball. At Fenway, the man hit .348 AVG, with an OPS of .905. Do you think Dave Dombrowski really thinks this can happen again? There seems to be a lot of value right now for Vazquez, than this time last year. While the stock for Christian Vazquez is up, I won’t be surprised to see him traded.

Ben Taylor:

For those of you who aren’t aware, Ben Taylor was the guy you saw some time around April, with the sick stache. Although his caterpillar might make it out of November, I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t.  One of the top guys on this roster who has a secured job is Craig Kimbrel. If you asked me last year, I’d have said Taylor was safe due to a shaky year for Kimbrel. However, judging by the fact the flamethrower could be the reliever of the year in the AL, I think Taylor’s days are numbered. Taylor is one of the Red Sox top reliever prospects, and could bring a lot of value to a team with a struggling bullpen.

Eduardo Rodriguez:

Eduardo had quite the start to the 2017 season. At one point, he was in the All-Star conversations, and the number two to Chris Sale. Injuries have been the killer for E-Rod. After undergoing another surgery, I’m not sure how much longer this club can wait for his potential. E-Rod is only 24, and the signs of injury this early in his career could be alarming for most clubs. There are still teams out there willing to take a chance at what he can bring to a rotation. Even when healthy, finishing with a 4.19 ERA, it was disheartening to end the season. The wear and tear of the MLB season does not seem a good fit for E-Rod in Boston. Yuck.

Xander Bogearts:

Thirty-four. No, I am not talking about David Ortiz every one’s favorite home run threat, couldn’t be further from the subject. That is the number of how many games it took the two time Silver Slugger, Xander Bogaerts, to hit a home run this season. Maybe a batting average of .273 isn’t terrible, but for the player Xander should/could be, I really think that number should be higher. He only hit 10 home runs in a season.

Personally, I’m not sure what Xander’s value might be. If Xander does not hit well with a new hitting coach, and a new system of management in 2018, you have to think that’s the last straw. Xander is entering his year 26 season, where most players start to hit their prime.  I’m not sure if value is discussed with him on the phone, or in the locker room, but with a tool like Eduardo Nunez on the team now, it’s unclear if that value is in Boston.

Andrew Benintendi:

*ONLY IF BOSTON GETS STANTON*

LET ME MAKE THIS VERY CLEAR, I don’t think anyone wants this to happen. Benintendi is one of the ROY finalists. Although he will probably not win the award, Benintendi didn’t have a terrible rookie season with the Red Sox. An average of.271, hitting 20 HR, and .776 OPS, is not as well as most thought he’d perform this year. Considering it was his rookie year at the age of 23, I’m not exactly upset with that performance. The bottom line is, Andrew Benintendi has top value out of the entire Red Sox roster. Defensively, he can be a threat, he has speed on the base paths, and is an all-around athlete.

Either Andrew Benintendi is a Sox player for life, or will be sent away for a power hitter from South Beach. It’s the difference between what this team wants in the future, or immediate present. Benintendi has three more years secured on his contract than Hot Stove favorite, Jackie Bradley Jr. If it were me, I’d rather give more around a package with JBJ, than settle for giving away Benintendi. If you’re a fan of Stanton being with the Red Sox, you may have to part ways with Benny Baseball. PRAY with me for JD Martinez.

Stanton

The Red Sox Should Not Trade for Stanton

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The Boston Red Sox should not trade for Giancarlo Stanton. Don’t get me wrong, I love the guy. Stanton is a pleasure to watch.  He hits the ball harder than anyone I have seen. I’ve sent many videos of his home runs to my brothers over the years. With all the following aspects considered however, the Red Sox have better options available to them.

The Money

The Sox would owe Stanton fat stacks.  Yes, Stanton is an all-world talent and worth a lot of money. Yes, he is still only 27 years old. But other options  can be had much cheaper that aren’t much worse at the plate. Giancarlo Stanton will get $285M over the next 10 seasons. He then has a team option in 2028 for $25M. If one assumed that wouldn’t be picked up, the team would still owe him $10M  as a buyout of his contract. Bare minimum.   For the $295M owed to Stanton, JD Martinez could be had for half of that, maybe even less than half. Is Stanton really worth that much more than Martinez? That answer is no.

The Cost of Trade

If you do believe Stanton is worth all that much money, how about the trade aspect? JD Martinez is a free agent. No players would have to be given up to acquire him. Stanton would cost players, and good ones at that, in addition to the near $300M. How could someone justify spending $150-$175M  more and good players on top of it for Stanton as opposed to Martinez? Who would it take to acquire Stanton? A centerpiece of Jackie Bradley Jr. or Xander Bogaerts along with a couple prospects? Or maybe all of them. In theory Stanton would be worth such a package, but considering all angles that’s not the case.

The Statistics

Stanton Catch

Giancarlo Stanton catches the third out in the second inning during game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on May 25, 2015 (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)

Stanton is actually a better defender than Martinez. He is surprisingly solid for someone his size, but unless we move Bradley neither of these guys would be acquired to play the field. If they are designated hitters, defense is a moot point. So let’s just focus on the offense.

JD Martinez had his breakout four seasons ago. Over that four-year span, how much better has Stanton been than Martinez? In the last four years Giancarlo Stanton has batted .271 with a .939 OPS. JD Martinez in those same four years has hit for a .300 average with a .936 OPS. Martinez hits for a much higher average, but Stanton walks a lot more so their on base percentages are very similar — .366 for Stanton to .362 for Martinez. That actually leaves Martinez with the very slight edge in slugging, .574 to .573. Surprise!

When it comes to home runs, Giancarlo Stanton has averaged 38 home runs over those four seasons. That number jumps to 49 per 162 games due to injuries. Martinez lags behind, but not so far behind that Stanton becomes worth that much more than him. Martinez has averaged 32 home runs per year, or 40 home runs per 162 games played. The reason his slugging is higher is he gets more hits and a lot more doubles. Their triple slash lines are nearly identical.

Giancarlo Stanton vs JD Martinez

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Stanton takes aim at the ugly sculpture in center field.

Year Tm Lg G PA AB 2B 3B HR RBI BA OBP SLG OPS
2014 MIA NL 145 638 539 31 1 37 105 .288 .395 .555 .950
2015 MIA NL 74 318 279 12 1 27 67 .265 .346 .606 .952
2016 MIA NL 119 470 413 20 1 27 74 .240 .326 .489 .815
2017 MIA NL 159 692 597 32 0 59 132 .281 .376 .631 1.007

 

Year Tm Lg G PA AB 2B 3B HR RBI BA OBP SLG OPS
2014 DET AL 123 480 441 30 3 23 76 .315 .358 .553 .912
2015 DET AL 158 657 596 33 2 38 102 .282 .344 .535 .879
2016 DET AL 120 517 460 35 2 22 68 .307 .373 .535 .908
2017 TOT MLB 119 489 432 26 3 45 104 .303 .376 .690 1.066
2017 DET AL 57 232 200 13 2 16 39 .305 .388 .630 1.018
2017 ARI NL 62 257 232 13 1 29 65 .302 .366 .741 1.107

I’m not saying Martinez is better than Stanton, though the numbers show the difference might not be so large. All I’m saying is, there isn’t even close to a $150M gap between them, let alone some good players on top of it.

JD Martinez hits a 3-run home run off of Matt Wisler (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images)

Why not add them both?

Hey, I’d be all for adding them both. If the Sox were to sign JD Martinez and then trade, say, Jackie Bradley Jr. and a prospect or two for Stanton they could slide Betts to center, put Stanton in right and DH Martinez. That is one heck of a lineup. How do you pay both of them though? The Red Sox would soar well past the luxury tax and be stuck above it for years to come. With Chris Sale, Mookie Betts and others needing to be paid in a couple years the payroll is going to rise, not decrease.

And if we miss on JD Martinez?

If we were to whiff on JD Martinez, then I would more seriously explore trading for Stanton. There is no other bat available that can compare. Eric Hosmer is available and has a solid bat, but he is no true power threat like the Red Sox need. They need a thumper, someone opposing pitchers should fear. Hosmer is an up and down offensive player with 20-25 home run power. There are also rumors he is looking for 200 million dollars which borderlines on the absurd.

I would definitely pay Stanton his contract and give up something to get him before entertaining that. Just no trading Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi or Rafael Devers. If we were to acquire him without giving up any of them would I be upset? Probably not. Like I said, I love Stanton, he is one of my favorite players. The Red Sox just better let us in to watch our home team take batting practice.

WDR

Does Giancarlo Stanton already “Win-Dance-Repeat”?

2017 Red Sox Report Card

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We shouldn’t be upset that the 2017 Red Sox season is over. Certainly it would have been nice to get past Houston and into the ALCS. We might even hope to hit a little lightning in a bottle, beat the Tribe and make it to the World Series.

As any smart baseball observer knew long ago, this wasn’t a great Boston team (see here).   It was constructed poorly, managed poorly, and it performed poorly against baseballs best teams. Frankly, if you look at it through the commonly accepted five-tools of baseball, the 2017 Sox actually over achieved.

Tool 1: Hitting For Average (C)

After posting a league-leading team batting average of .282 last year, the Sox dropped to the middle of the pack this year at .258. Losing Ortiz (.315 in 2016) hurt. What hurt more was the precipitous drop from Betts, Bogaerts and Bradley, and Ramirez – each batted at least 21 points below their 2016 average. Most troubling, as something we pointed out here, was Mookie’s fall from .318 last season to .264 this year.

Tool 2: Hitting For Power (F)

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This year’s squad had all the pop of a softball team after finishing off the keg. In 2016 the Sox lead all 30 MLB teams in Slugging Percentage at .461. This year they finished 26th with a team slugging percentage of .407. For perspective, the Phillies slugged .409. They won 66 games.

The Sox hit only 168 home runs, good for 27th in the league. Papi’s absence again loomed large – 38 HRs and 127 RBIs in 2016. Again, more important was the decline in everyone else’s performance. Hanley hit seven fewer bombs and 49 fewer RBIs. Forty-nine.

Tool 3: Base Running (D)

Do we really even need to discuss this? The Sox were horrible on the base paths this year. Every night there was a new train wreck at home plate as the slowest players on the team were gunned down by five steps. Or, someone made a mistake and was doubled-up on what should have only been a routine fielder’s choice.

The only reason Base Running isn’t an “F” for the year is that with their team speed, the Sox managed 106 stolen bases (6th in MLB) and were caught only 31 times (13th). That’s what is so frustrating about this squad. With their speed, they should have been great running the bases.

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Skipper John Farrell dismissed the Sox ineptitude on the bases, insisting the obscene number of outs was the result of an aggressive philosophy. That might be partly true, but the decision to send someone like Sandy Leon or Mitch Moreland home on a shallow fly isn’t being “aggressive” it’s being stupid. They were stupid a lot this year.

Tool 4: Throwing/Pitching (B+)

For all the Pedro-like excitement for Chris Sale’s starts this season, he really was pretty awful when we needed him most. As discussed previously (here), in the second half of the year he dominated the worst teams and was dominated by the best. He finished with career highs in both innings (214.1) and K’s (308) – and that might have been part of the problem. He looked tired down the stretch and gave up a ton of home runs.

As good as Sale was at times, Porcello was equally bad. Leading the league in losses (17), runs (125), and home runs allowed (38), Pretty Ricky was ugly in 2017. But, besides Sale and Porcello, team pitching was essentially the same this year as last year. This year’s staff managed a nearly identical WHIP and BAA (Batting Average Against) as last year in 43 more innings pitched. Given how poorly the team hit this year, the pitching deserves the bulk of the credit for winning the division.

Tool 5: Fielding (D)

Can we get a list of volunteers to hit grounders to the infield this off season? After committing only 75 errors in 2016 (3rd best in baseball), this year’s squad committed 107 (7th worst).

Devers adjustment at third base was certainly a factor. He committed 14 errors in 58 games. He’s young, he’ll improve. Bogaerts led the team with 17 errors in 2017, five more than in 2016 (in 10 fewer chances). Just like at the plate, he’s regressing in the field.

Final Grade (C)

My kids like to tell me that a “C” on their report card is “average”… as if that’s acceptable. It is not. Certainly not for a team with a $200M payroll. It is revealing that a team as demonstrably average as the 2017 Red Sox can, not only make the playoffs, but win the division. It should make everyone understand how important pitching is to success.

Where to Go From Here

We’ve said for months that the 2017 Red Sox were a deeply flawed team. They have talent, but not enough. They lack power and they commit too many unforced errors in the field and on the bases. That’s a coaching issue.

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Chili Davis is simply not getting it done as a hitting coach. It’s easy to look good with David Ortiz compensating for team power numbers, but the regression of the core members of this franchise’s future can’t continue.

Base coaches Butterfield (3B) and Amaro (1B) need to be held responsible for the ridiculous performance on the base paths. No team with as much speed and experience as the Sox should look so clueless every night.

It is hard to justify firing a manager who just won consecutive division titles and won a World Series only four years ago, but changes must be made in the coaching staff.

 

“Judging” Rafael Devers

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Let’s jump to conclusions. For one minute, let’s be Yankee fans and make ridiculous assertions about how every player who dons our uniform will one have a plaque in Cooperstown.

Rafael Devers is that guy. His electric start, along with the addition of a scalding-hot Eduardo Nunez, injected energy and offense into the struggling Sox in July and vaulted them back into first place in the East. Even after a recent dip, his .300/8/18 start to his big league career is more than just promising, it’s exhilarating. Let’s face it, if he played in the Bronx they’d already be thinking about retiring his number and ordering his plaque for Monument Valley. God knows they’re already measuring Aaron Judge for a HoF jacket.

But we’re not Yankee fans. Thank the Lord.

We’re smart enough to know that as good as Devers was on the farm, and what he displayed with his hot start, he will level out – in fact he may already have. But when he does, what can we expect? From an offensive standpoint, the answer looks pretty damn good.

Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics

Bill James didn’t reinvent the game with his Baseball Abstract in 1977, but he did start a revolution in how we think about, analyze, and project player value. Johan Hill showed Brad Pitt the power of data analytics in Moneyball, and if he could figure it out between adopting half the world’s orphans and murdering zombies then most of us can too.

Many believers in sabermetrics will tell you that the number-one predictor of hitting potential in the big leagues over time is best summed up as the relationship between power, average, and strike-outs. Intuitively, when we think about the greatest hitters who ever played the game, we think about guys who drove the ball with power and seldom swung and missed. Williams, Ruth, Mays, and Aaron come to mind.

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It’s not enough to simply crush the ball. Nobody in their right minds considers Dave Kingman one of the all-time great hitters – though he did hit 442 HRs in the pre-steroid era. Kingman’s problem? He was a career .236 hitter with more than 1,800 Ks. So, the greatest hitters who ever lived are those with high slugging percentages, high batting averages, and low strike-outs. Not exactly rocket science. If you isolate hitting for power (slugging avg – batting avg) and divide by Ks per 9-innings, you can begin to see quantitatively why the people you think were great hitters were, and why we hate Carl Crawford .

Name Level Games Slugging Average ISO-Power SOs SO per 9 Inning ISO-P/K
Ted Williams MLB 2292 0.634 0.344 0.290 709 0.309 0.937
Rogers Hornsby MLB 2259 0.577 0.358 0.219 679 0.301 0.729
Babe Ruth MLB 2503 0.690 0.342 0.348 1330 0.531 0.655
Hank Aaron MLB 3298 0.555 0.305 0.250 1383 0.419 0.596
George Brett MLB 2707 0.487 0.305 0.182 908 0.335 0.543
Willie Mays MLB 2992 0.557 0.302 0.255 1526 0.510 0.500
Gary Sheffield MLB 2576 0.514 0.292 0.222 1171 0.455 0.488
Wade Boggs MLB 2440 0.443 0.328 0.115 745 0.305 0.377
David Ortiz MLB 2408 0.552 0.286 0.266 1750 0.727 0.366
Manny Ramirez MLB 2302 0.585 0.312 0.273 1813 0.788 0.347
Mark Texiera MLB 1862 0.509 0.268 0.241 1441 0.774 0.311
Dwight Evans MLB 2606 0.470 0.272 0.198 1697 0.651 0.304
Jack Clark MLB 1994 0.476 0.267 0.209 1441 0.723 0.289
Jim Thome MLB 2543 0.554 0.276 0.278 2548 1.002 0.277
Dave Kingman MLB 1941 0.478 0.236 0.242 1816 0.936 0.259
Reggie Jackson MLB 2820 0.490 0.262 0.228 2597 0.921 0.248
Carl Crawford MLB 1716 0.435 0.290 0.145 1067 0.622 0.233
Wily Mo Pena MLB 599 0.445 0.250 0.195 559 0.933 0.209

Of the players who belong to the Hall of Fame (bold), Reggie Jackson was an outlier. Objectively speaking, from a quantitative standpoint, he was a painfully average ballplayer. For perspective, in more than 1,000 fewer at bats, he struck out 1,071 more times than Willie Mays. Reggie just happened to excel on the big stage – winning four World Series and winning MVP in two of them.

Boston’s Future

Rafael Devers hasn’t had enough MLB at-bats to generate a sufficiently large statistical sample yet. But if we compare his minor league numbers to Betts, Bogaerts, and Bradley – and knowing how those players have leveled out after over 450-MLB games each – we can begin to see where he might level out himself.

Name Level Games Slugging Average ISO-Power SOs SO per 9 Inning ISO-P/K
Mookie Betts Minors 313 0.442 0.307 0.135 147 0.470 0.287
Rafael Devers Minors 399 0.482 0.296 0.186 291 0.729 0.255
Rafael Devers MLB 40 0.513 0.300 0.213 39 0.975 0.218
Xander Bogaerts Minors 315 0.503 0.288 0.215 272 0.863 0.249
Jackie Bradley Minors 277 0.474 0.298 0.176 208 0.751 0.234

We should note that currently, through 493 MLB games, Mookie’s ISO-P/K is .355 – placing him squarely between Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz. I hope we can agree that he’s leveled out quite nicely. It would be premature, with such a small sample at the big-league level, to project Devers will be in Betts’ class as a pro (he’s at .218 now.  But with good coaching, line-up protection, and patience at the plate,. we can expect him to be more productive than either Bogaerts or Bradley – and that’s not too shabby.

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And just for perspective – NY’s newest hero, Aaron Judge, had a .182 in 348 minor league games.  And despite all the tape measure HRs and Sportscenter fawning, he’s sitting at .202 through 152 big-league games. Dave Kingman? He’s not even Carl Crawford.

 

Note: all statistics thank to the tome of wisdom at www.baseball-reference.com