Author Archives: Thomas Howland

Pete Rose Should Be Back In Baseball

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Gambling has become more and more acceptable in our society in light of the Supreme Court decision to strike down the 1992 law that prohibited sports betting in many states.  In light of this, and Major League Baseball getting into bed with MGM Resorts, it’s time to welcome back Pete Rose into Baseball’s good graces.

Hall Of Fame Career

Pete Rose has the stats, hands down.  Charlie Hustle ran hard on every play, and got on base in any way possible during a 24 year career.  He ended his career as the all time leader in hits, a total of 4,256.  That record still stands and will probably never be broken.   He was Rookie Of The Year in 1963, MVP in 1973, won 3 batting titles, and was a 17 time All Star.

Betting On Baseball

Unfortunately for Rose, he bet on baseball.  The Dowd report is thick in legalism.   The bottom line is that Rose had no were to go in the onslaught of names, dates, phone calls, ect.  Rose later admitted it in his 2004 autobiography My Prison Without Bars.  Of course, he admitted betting on the Reds, but never against them while he was playing and managing them.

In the wake of the 1919 World Series betting scandal, incredible baseball name Kenesaw Mountain Landis, became Commissioner and banned 8 Chicago White Sox for life.  The ‘no betting in baseball’ rule was born.

Lost in this was Landis used this opportunity to consolidate power in the game and become the first MLB commissioner.  Are we sure there wasn’t all kinds of graft going on in that situation?  After all, some see him as standing in the way of integration in baseball.  Jackie Robinson didn’t break in until 1947, 3 years after Landis’ death.

It’s clear from this vantage point that Rose had, and probably still has, a serious gambling problem.  This is a well known addiction and I would hope there would be more acceptance in our society today.

Baseball Is In Bed With Gambling

On Tuesday November 27th it was announced that MLB has agreed to have MGM Resorts International as their ‘Official Gaming Sponsor’.

What more do I have to say here?  As the story states, financial details were not disclosed, but it’s clear this is a windfall for the league.

So the league can make millions off of sports betting, but Rose is banned?  Sure, it’s a slippery slope, but while Rose had the Dowd report, there was a whole federal case around the Black Sox.  These aren’t apple to apple comparisons.

Is it possible to let in Rose and then treat any other players caught gambling on baseball while they are playing or managing as individual cases?  I believe it is.  My point is Baseball has blurred the lines of gambling in the game as gambling has become more acceptable.

Rose is truly one of the greatest players of all time.  Allow him back into the game and put him on the Hall Of Fame ballot.

 

Vote Roger Clemens Into The Hall Of Fame

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When we pull out the winter coats and see our heating bills rise, the Baseball Hall of Fame announcement is soon to follow.  This year is year 7 of 10 for Roger Clemens.  This is a man with 7 Cy Young awards and 354 wins.  So why isn’t he in the Hall Of Fame right now?

We all know the answer to that question.  His PED use.  Or his alleged PED use.  That story is so overdone and convoluted I’m not going to dive into it here.  Instead, I’m going to go through a Red Sox fan’s journey to acceptance of The Rocket.

The Red Sox Rise & Fall

Roger Clemens started on the Red Sox in 1984, but he burst onto the scene in 1986.  He went 24-4 with 2.48 ERA and won the Cy Young and MVP.  The list of pitchers that have done that is small.  Through 1992, he continued his greatness.  He won 17 or more games 7 times and averaged a 2.90 ERA.

But then 1993-1996 happened.  Clemens appeared to pack it in.  Over those three years, he averaged 10 wins and a 3.78 ERA.  That ERA is good for most pitchers, but not for The Rocket.  His decline famously led Dan Duquette, the Sox GM at the time, to say it was the twilight of his career.

Betrayal

So Duquette allowed him to sign with the division rival, Toronto Blue Jays, and all of a sudden he was revitalized.  He won two straight Cy Young awards, averaging 20 wins a year and a 2.35 ERA.  He even had the best strikeouts per 9 innings of his career, a measure of a pitcher’s ‘nastiness’.

And then he went to the Yankees.  If he had done nothing else, that would’ve been enough for me and the rest of Red Sox nation to hate him.  But of course, he continued to pitch well, including another Cy Young and 2 World Series wins with the hated Pinstripes.

This turned our unrequited love towards him to ash.  Clemens had turned the place of our escape from everyday turmoil, the game and the local nine, into another place of hurt and pain.

Perspective

But hate is no way to go through life.   In time, Jose Canseco has been proven right: Everyone juiced.  Batters, starting pitchers, relievers, part-time players, Hall of Famers, everyone.

Sure there have been many clean players, but so many juicers, they were all shoulder to shoulder in the PED wine pit.

And Clemens was still head an shoulder above most of them.  He ended with 7 Cy Youngs, the most in history.  He’s the 9th winningest pitcher in MLB history.  Yes, there is plenty of taint on those records.

But Jim Bouton, in his seminal Ball Four, speaks of PED use by pitchers, mainly himself and Whitey Ford, in the 1960s.  The bottom line is there’s been a lot of ‘looking for an edge’ going on throughout baseball history.

To summarize: Yes, Roger Clemens probably cheated, but so did a lot of others, and on performance alone, he would’ve been a first ballot Hall of Famer.  As it is, the writers have made him suffer for 6 years so far, and the rules were even changed because of him and Barry Bonds.  It used to be players had 15 years on the ballot to get in, that’s how long it took Jim Rice and Tim Raines.  But now it’s a 10-year limit.

I don’t think anyone is going to forget his probable PED use.  But I believe we should move towards forgiveness.  So what are his chances?

Roger Clemens Hall of Fame Voting

To get into the Hall, 75% of the vote is required.  Thanks to the intrepid Ryan Thibodaux, we can track Clemen’s voting percentages.   Since Thibodaux’s tracking started, Clemens has gone from 39% in 2013, up to 61% in 2018.  In the old system of 15 years of eligibility that is a track that eventually leads to the 75% threshold.

But Clemens only has three years left.  The theory is that younger voters are voting for him.  Let’s hope they can persuade their cranky obstinate brethren, and get him voted in.

Should The Red Sox Go After Noah Syndergaard?

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The Baseball Hot Stove is beginning. It’s winter, so warm up.  There are reports out there that the New York Mets are open to trading Noah Syndergaard.  Could Thor be in the Red Sox future?  Cue the Led Zeppelin and put on your mittens while we take a look.

Syndergaard’s Injuries

Noah Syndergaard has had a number of injuries, but his ‘injury prone‘ label is unwarranted.  In May of 2018, he had a strained ligament in his right index finger.  It’s unknown how he did it, perhaps playing Fortnite or Red Dead Redemption 2 a little too vigorously, but it held him out six weeks.  Then in late July, he suffered from the plague that hit New York pitchers hard: Hand, Foot and Mouth disease.  The scourge of toddlers may be embarrassing, but it’s hardly a long-term problem.

The major injury for Thor was a strained right lat muscle in May of 2017.  I’m not a doctor, so the details are a bit beyond me, but the bottom line is he did not need surgery.  Furthermore, this was not a rotator cuff or elbow injury.  Yes, it wiped out most of his 2017, but there has been no recurrence of the injury.

Contract Status

Because he missed the bulk of 2017, Noah Syndergaard has an incredibly affordable contract for someone of his stature.  He still has three years of arbitration ahead of him, and he’s starting 2019 from the low rung of $2.975 Million.

That means that even if he performs like a Cy Young candidate in 2019 and 2020 he still won’t be breaking the bank.  In short, this man is probably the best bargain in baseball as long as he’s healthy.  And it appears that he is.

End Of 2018 Performance

Syndergaard had a rough August as his body recovered from sickness, but he poured it on in September.  He went 4-1 with two complete games, including a shutout to end the season.  His Statcast average pitch speed was over 97 MPH on his fastball, so he’s still throwing much harder than the average incredible baseball player who is on any Major League roster.

On September 14th, Noah Syndergaard came to Fenway Park and pitched a beauty against arguably the greatest Red Sox team of all time.  7 innings, 3 hits, 6 strikeouts.  After the performance he tweeted out this nugget of a tantalizing possibility:

I’m sorry, but in light of the rumors of his availability, can I freak out now?

How He Fits On The Red Sox

It’s no secret that the Red Sox have a rather large bill coming due at the end of 2019.  Chris Sale’s contract is up.  Xander Bogaerts is hitting free agency.  JD Martinez has an opt-out in his contract.  Mookie Betts even now is looking to break records in arbitration.

As stated above, Syndergaard is cost controlled.  So while he is at that $2.975 Million number and coming off a season where he missed some time and made only 25 starts, Mookie is at $10.5 Million and coming off an MVP season.  The lower you start from in arbitration, the lower you end up the next year, and vice versa.

For a Red Sox team that is paying David Price over $30 Million, with at least that much needing to go to Chris Sale if they want to keep him, Syndergaard is a dream contract.  Furthermore, there is no starting pitcher depth in the Red Sox minor league system.  Low-cost young stars are the lifeblood of successful major league teams.  Noah Syndergaard is the very essence of the solution to these problems.

For these reasons, he won’t come cheap.

What A Trade Would Look Like

Alarmingly, the Red Sox main competition in the American League are pegged as landing spots for Syndergaard.  But the possible assets from the Yankees and Astros can’t measure up to the firepower the Red Sox can offer.

I was willing to trade Rafael Devers for very few players.  Kris Bryant was one of those players.  That is because Bryant is young and an MVP winner and perennial MVP candidate.  But Bryant would cost a lot soon.  Syndergaard is almost the equivalent as a pitcher that Bryant is as a batter and third baseman, and he’s cheap.

I’m also an advocate for taking advantage of Christian Vazquez’s value at this moment in time.

The Mets are working on getting 3B David Wright’s contract off their books.  They also have a hole at catcher.

I think the framework is there for a Rafael Devers and Christian Vazquez for Noah Syndergaard swap.  I do know that this is a trade that meets what the Mets may be looking for.

This would be a major shake-up of the future of the Red Sox.  Most likely this would mean the Sox would not be in on Nathan Eovaldi, the Sox number one target of this offseason, but maybe not.  It would definitely mean letting go of all the potential and promise of Rafael Devers.  Perhaps there’s a certain swiss army knife, who’s won a recent World Series with Alex Cora, the Sox could sign to play third?

The Mets GM, Brodie Van Wagenen, is an unknown entity at the moment.  There’s no telling what he may do, but he is contacting a lot of starting pitchers’ agents.  It certainly appears he’s readying to trade Thor.

Think of top of this rotation on opening day: Chris Sale, Noah Syndergaard, David Price.  Kind of makes the drool flow freely from your gaping mouth right?

Trade Christian Vazquez

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A rundown of the Red Sox catching depth shows Christian Vazquez, Sandy Leon, and Blake Swihart. Guess who makes well over 50% of the money?  That’s right, Christian Vazquez.

Blake Swihart Moving Up

There’s news that Blake Swihart will be brought to camp with the intention of keeping him at catcher in 2019.  This may seem innocuous.  But then there was Alex Cora saying he wasn’t fair to Blake Swihart in 2018.  These smoke signals seem to be pointing to Swihart getting a lot more time behind the plate in 2019.

Sandy Leon’s Defense

On first blush it could be that the team is looking to move on from Sandy Leon.  He was, of course, usurped as the number one catcher in the playoffs by Christian Vazquez.  But all throughout the season, there was story after story about how much the pitchers trusted Sandy Leon.  In August of 2018, The Globe did a story about Sandy having a 3.01 catchers ERA, which was the best in baseball at the time.

Just because Leon’s batting stats cratered in 2018 (.117 batting average for example), all that defense doesn’t fly out the window.

Vazquez Contract

Which leads us back to Vazquez.  It would be one thing if he was making $563K like Swihart, or $1.95 Million like Leon, and on the arbitration train like the two of them.  Not only is Christian Vazquez making $2.85 Million this year, but he’s also owed an additional $10.45 Million over 2020 and 2021.  That is because the Red Sox gave him a 3-year deal that starts in 2019.

In his admittedly sparse 4-year major league career, Blake Swihart has batted .256 with a .678 OPS.  For comparison, Vazquez hit .207/.540 this year and .240/.632 in his career.  Vazquez did hit .290 last year, but it took Leon’s offense disappearing in 2018 for Vazquez to get his chance again.

So Christian Vazquez has the recent World Series success of the team and a quintessential Yankee Stadium postseason Home Run to burnish his attraction to other clubs.  And because the Red Sox have Leon and Swihart, with Swihart’s improved defense (No errors, no passed balls, threw out 5 of 14 base stealers for an excellent 36 percent rate) to boot, Vazquez is an excellent candidate to be traded.

Trade Possibilities

Vazquez won’t bring back a lot on his own.  At best the Red Sox could look to bolster their weak farm system with a starting pitcher prospect or two.  Or perhaps he could be added to a package to get a higher rated prospect or more.

Removing Vazquez’s escalating salary is almost as important as giving Blake Swihart more time or getting prospects.  The Red Sox should sign Nathan Eovaldi, but it will cost.  The end of 2019 has Chris Sale and Xander Bogaerts getting to free agency, with JD Martinez likely to opt out as well.  Every payroll dollar counts.

A Vazquez trade wouldn’t be a blockbuster, but there are too many positives to trading him to not make sense this offseason.

 

 

Support Rob Manfred: Contact The MLBPA About Pace Of Play

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Rob Manfred has gotten a contract extension to remain The Commissioner of Major League Baseball for another 5 years.  That is outstanding news for all baseball fans because Mr. Manfred is a man on a mission to save our beautiful game.

Declining Ratings

And why does our game need saving?  Because ratings and attendance are down, more every year.  How is it that the World Series between Boston and LA, two historical franchises, had reduced ratings of 20% over the prior year?  Because people hate the Red Sox.  Oh, and it takes too long.  The game simply takes too long.

Rob Manfred, a hero of busy people with only so much time, has taken on Titans and Legends alike in his time as Commissioner, all in the name of reducing Pace of Play.  Let’s take a brief walk down his warpath.

Rob Manfred Pace Of Play Initiatives

In 2015, Big Time Rob got the MLB Players Union to agree to several Pace of Play initiatives:

  • Managers have to stay in the dugout during replay challenges.  I have to admit, I kind of miss Lou Piniella.  But it saves time!
  • Hitter have to keep one foot in the batter’s box at all times.  No more afternoon strolls or other shenanigans.
  • The game must start promptly after commercial breaks.
  • Relievers have 2 minutes 30 seconds to come in from the bullpen and warm up.

It’s debatable how often Thor, I mean Rob Manfred, threw the hammer and fined players for their violations.  But clearly, the battle lines were drawn.

The Owners Pony Up

In 2018 Jon Snow, I mean Ron Manfred, pulled out his long sword and did the unthinkable: He got the MLB owners to agree to reduce commercial time.  This is money directly out of their pockets.  20 seconds less per break during the regular season. That’s almost a 10% reduction on 2:25 of ad time.

That hurts.  It’s estimated that on national MLB games in 2017 the total cost of advertising was $313 million.  That was just network games like Fox and TBS.  Imagine all the team networks out there, charging for ads in all the MLB games every day.

Now imagine bigger.  In 2017, the Phillies signed a deal with Comcast for $5 Billion over 25 years to televise the games.

The Players Need To Get Behind This

It’s high time the Major League Players Association started getting truly serious about reducing the time it takes to watch the games.  I won’t say this is a crisis, but I don’t think I have to go chapter and verse of why a faster game would benefit all.

In 2018, when Jesse Owens, I mean Rob Manfred, negotiated the reduction in ad time, as well as limiting mound visits, he wanted to introduce the play clock.  But he could not come to an agreement with the Players Association.

I’m no expert, but Paul Bunyan, I mean Rob Manfred, and his team are experts.  And they say increasing the pace of play is vital for the game.  The Commish could implement things like the pitch clock and between-batter timer unilaterally if he wanted to.  But he has been exercising caution in the name of labor peace and cooperation thus far.

A Travesty In The World Series

I mean honestly, they were playing ads between pitches during the World Series.  Between pitches in the ninth inning of a close game in the World Series.  I watched this happen and was enraged.

The history and honor and glory of our great game is made and lost in the 9th inning of World Series games.  How is it possible ads are playing between pitches?

Because too much time is taken between each and every pitch!  It’s on the teams, the players, the managers, and the league, to make it inconceivable a real ad could be placed between pitches in the 9th inning of a World Series Game.

A Call To Action

I propose a grassroots campaign to flood the Major League Players association with calls and emails and letters urging them to agree with Commissioner Manfred to do anything possible to speed up the game.  Here is the MLBPA contact information:

  • Website: www.mlbplayers.org
  • Phone number: (212) 826 – 0808
  • Email address: feedback@mlbpa.org
  • Address: 12 East 49th St, 24th Floor, New York, NY 10017

The owners have given up millions of dollars.  They, in turn, have endorsed General George S. Patton, I mean Commissioner Manfred, to go on a long campaign of reducing the pace of play.

This is the players’ game.  They need to get behind these efforts instead of fighting them.  We cheer them, boo them, love them, hate them, and ultimately support all of them by attending and watching.

Now let them hear your voices like never before.  Tell them to get behind the efforts, like the pitch clock, to speed up the game and not make it a point of contention or call for labor strife within the Players Union.  Make it part of our great game going forward instead of a stagnant game going backward.

For the love of the game.

Red Sox Trade Potential 2019: Rafael Devers For Kris Bryant

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A shock-wave spread across the MLB Hot Stove when Buster Olney reported that the Chicago Cubs could trade Kris Bryant.  The Red Sox minor league system is bare, but Rafael Devers is young, cheap, talented, and a powerful trade chip.  Would a Rafael Devers Kris Bryant swap make sense?

Rafael Devers

Devers can be seen as a Red Sox wunderkind.  He will only be 22 years old at the start of 2019 season.  At that tender age, his accomplishments are many.  Here are just a few:

  • His Baseball Reference page compares him at a similar age to Willie Mays and Cal Ripken Jr.
  • He’s the youngest Red Sox player to hit a Home Run since Tony Conigliaro in 1965.
  • He has a .884 OPS in the postseason including 3 Home Runs and 14 RBI in 15 games.

Because of these, and many other great performances, most consider him an untouchable.  And for the vast majority of all the talent in all the world, he is.

But what if he could be the centerpiece, or only piece, in a trade for one of the best young players in all of baseball?

Kris Bryant

Kris Bryant himself is seen as a Chicago Cubs wunderkind.  At the tender age of 26, he has already been a Rookie Of The Year, an NL MVP, and linchpin of a 2016 World Series Championship for the Cubbies.

Devers may be full of potential, but Bryant is a monster and has proved it over a much larger sample.  Bryant is also playing much better defense than Devers at third base.

So why would the Cubs trade him?  Because many of the same concerns the Red Sox have had with Mookie Betts.  Bryant has refused to talk long-term extension with the Cubs.

Now, Theo Epstein, the President of the Cubs, downplayed the possibility of trading Bryant.  But what do we expect him to say?  If there is even a possibility, this could be an incredible opportunity.

In the spring of 2017, the Chicago Cubs visited Fenway Park for a 3 game series.  It was a brief glimpse of the kind of, pardon the term, damage Bryant could do.  In those 3 games, he hit 2 Home Runs, 2 Doubles, and had a 1.429 OPS.

Red Sox Payroll Concerns 2020

At the end of the 2019 season, the Red Sox have a number of payroll concerns.  Among them are trying to sign Mookie Betts to a long-term deal, Chris Sale and Xander Bogaerts becoming free agents, and JD Martinez having an opt-out in his contract.

Having Kris Bryant, a superstar, on the team at a lower number through 2021, would provide some flexibility for the Sox in the short term.  And Bryant is a much better bet to invest in than Rafael Devers.  Bryant is simply a better player.

Because of Rafael Devers’ postseason success, and tantalizing thoughts of Willy Mays and a young and healthy Tony C, he could be a one for one trade chip for Kris Bryant.  And hey, it’s just the kind of trade Dave Dombrowski is known for.

Red Sox Free Agency 2019: Does Charlie Morton Compare to Nathan Eovaldi?

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One of the surprises of the 2019 Free Agency crop in Major League baseball is that Charlie Morton is available.  The Astros did not sign him before he hit free agency and they did not extend him a qualifying offer.

Nathan Eovaldi In Demand

Why does that matter to the Red Sox?  Because Nathan Eovaldi is suddenly starting to attract attention in the market.  A quick google search will show the Yankees’ interest.  And shockingly, curveball enthusiast Lance McCullers is going to miss the 2019 season for the Astros due to Tommy John Surgery.  According to many, this puts Eovaldi on the Astros list.

All of this is to say, the Red Sox will have a lot of competition for Eovaldi.  And while we rightly sing songs to his World Series heroics, it’s not like Eovaldi is the second coming of Pedro Martinez.  So it’s worth asking, if Eovaldi signs elsewhere, are there legit replacements available?

Charlie Morton

Let’s play a choose your own pitcher game.  Here are the average stats for the past two active seasons of each pitcher.  One of these is Charlie Morton, the other is Nathan Eovaldi:

  • Pitcher A: 118 innings, 23 starts, 4.28 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 7.6 K/9, 2.5 BB/9
  • Pitcher B: 157 innings, 27 starts, 3.53 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, 3.3 BB/9

Can you guess which is which?  A is Eovaldi, B is Morton.  Charlie Morton gets a bad rap that he’s injury prone, but he’s averaging 157 innings a year, which is what you need from a number 3, 4 or 5 starter.  He walks a few more than Eovaldi but strikes out a lot more too.

The fact that Morton, like Eovaldi, is right-handed also works in his favor.  The Sox already have three left-handers in Sale, Price and Eduardo Rodriguez.  There are a lot of right-handed bats on the Red Sox closest competitors, the Yankees, and Astros.  Having a right-handed starter to counteract Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, George Springer, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Carlos Correa is a necessity.

One other nugget about Morton: He is the forerunner of Eovaldi in terms of bullpen work in the ALCS and World Series in 2017.

Charlie Morton is 35 years old, 6 years older than Eovaldi, and because of that, there will be less demand for his services.  MLB Trade Rumors state, and I love this, that Morton is aging like fine wine.  They also estimate a 2 year $32 Million deal for him, verse a 4 year $60 Million deal for Eovaldi.

The Alex Cora Connection

There’s that man again.  Cora worked with Charlie Morton last year with the Astros, he has the inside knowledge on this guy.  Because of this, if there is smoke out there about the Sox interest in Morton I would believe it.

To me, Nathan Eovaldi is the Number 1 priority for the Red Sox in Free Agency.  But if the numbers start to creep towards $20 million a year I think the Red Sox should search for alternatives.  Charlie Morton is a great back up plan.

Red Sox Free Agency 2019: Is Marwin Gonzalez A Fit?

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When last we gazed on the 2018 Red Sox, the view was majestic.  But the 2018 season is over, and second base is a need.  Could Marwin Gonzalez meet that need?

On The Roster Now

For over 10 years, Dustin Pedroia was the guardian of second base and the second spot in the batting order for the Red Sox.  Before the dark times, before Manny Machado.

But let’s not be too harsh.  Machado’s spike and the aftermath, it could be argued, ended with the Sox getting Alex Cora.  That’s a great thing!

Pedroia is making a lot of money.  He’s on the books for an average of $13.75 million until 2021.  And that would be fine if he could play.  But the outlook is extremely iffy. He had knee cartilage restoration surgery in late 2017, followed by arthroscopic surgery to remove scar tissue in late July of this year.

I’m not a doctor, I don’t even play one on the Boston Sports Extra website, but because of those knee surgeries, I’m not hopeful for a full recovery.

Eduardo Nunez and Brock Holt are the remaining possibilities at second base.  But Nunez is a DL stint waiting to happen, while Brock Holt provides limited returns the more he plays.

Look, I love me some Brock Holt, but he’s averaged 89 games a year for the past 3 years.  He’s not reliable for a full season.

Can Marwin Gonzalez play 2B?

Gonzalez is what’s known as a super utility player.  Think Ben Zobrist.  He has played 1B, 2B, SS, and OF for the Astros over the past few years, and done well.  His 3-year averages are 140 Games, 28 Doubles, 17 Home Runs, and a .778 OPS.

He has been held back from a set position because of the team he’s been on.  The Houston Astros have MVP candidates at Second Base in Jose Altuve, and at Short Stop in Carlos Correa.  In his career, Marwin Gonzalez has spent 54% of his time at either Short Stop or Second.

I think Gonzalez can definitely play Second Base, but why would he come to the Sox?

The Alex Cora Connection

Because of Alex Cora.  Even the most casual observer could see the difference over a full season and in the playoffs that Alex Cora makes.  It’s no mistake his teams have won the World Series two years in a row.  And Marwin Gonzalez knows Cora from their time together last year with the Astros.

Even if Pedroia comes back, Holt gets playing time, and somehow Nunez stays healthy, Alex Cora knows how they communicate with the team effectively.  Gonzalez’s versatility would be put to cooly efficient use by Cora in those circumstances.

The Cost

MLB Trade Rumors pegs Marwin Gonzalez as the 16th best free agent and estimates he will garner a 4 year, $36 million dollar deal.

These are the types of players I believe the Red Sox will go after because of their substantial payroll.  The Luxury Payroll Tax is a complicated matter that will be addressed at a later time.  But after all the arbitration numbers for the entire All-Star Outfield, as well as Xander Bogaerts, the Sox will be well into Luxury Tax territory.

Less expensive players like Marwin Gonzalez would go a long way towards solidifying the roster and getting the Red Sox back to the playoffs in 2019.

The 2019 Red Sox Bullpen: The Craig Kimbrel Question

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There are changes coming to the 2019 Red Sox Bullpen.  Yesterday I took a look at Joe Kelly.  The biggest piece, closer Craig Kimbrel, is today’s focus..  Is he worth paying to keep and what are some options out there?

Craig Kimbrel

In 2017 Craig Kimbrel was the 800 lb gorilla of all time Red Sox closers.  5-0 with 35 saves and a 1.43 ERA.  If he had been given more opportunity I’m sure he would’ve had even more saves.

Using a 3 year average is an attempt to have some perspective, but in Kimbrel’s case the 2017 season has a massive effect.  Because Kimbrel’s three year stats are, frankly, amazing: 14.8 K/9 and a 2.52 ERA.

Even then though, the walks show through: 3.8 per 9 innings.  That’s a lot of base runners.  When he’s on his game and striking out the world, it works.  When he’s not, let’s just say Alex Cora going with Chris Sale to close out game five says a ton.  And Kimbrel giving up a two run home run to Kiki Hernandez of all people in game four brought back all those non save situation failures from prior years.

All of this is to say Kimbrel’s not a guarantee to bring back as the 2019 Red Sox closer.  But who is out there who could be a good fit?  Closers who have working in the American League and have postseason experience.

Kelvin Herrera

Kelvin Herrera will undoubtedly be the least expensive option.  He suffered a torn Lisranc ligament in his left foot and had surgery for it on 8/30/2018.  The recovery for that encompasses around six months and requires vigilance.  That means he’ll be available a few weeks into spring training if all goes well.

There’s a lot to like about Herrera.  He is the youngest of this group at 29 on Opening Day 2019.  He also he walks the fewest batters.  His 3 year average is 2.17 walks per 9 is the lowest of all the comparisons I’ve found in the top tier group.  It is that low walk number than allows him to rival Kimbrel in the walk per strikeout stat.  Herrera is 4.6 BB/K, Kimbrel is 4.97 BB/K.

His three year ERA is 3.15 and the Red Sox tried to trade for him at the trade deadline this year.  His injuries were bad luck.  This year was his first extended time on the DL.

Because of his injury there are questions about Herrera, but that will also make him less expensive.  He very well could big the biggest relief Ace bargain of 2019.

Cody Allen

This former Cleveland Indians closer fell out of favor due to an off year in 2018.  While Kimbrel will be 31, Cody Allen will be 30 on opening day 2019.

Even with a bad 2018 he can stand next to Kimbrel at 3.8 BB/9 (Kimbrel is at 3.8) and he’s tantalizing because he will be cheaper than Kimbrel and has had a lot of success.  In 2016 and 2017 he averaged a 2.73 ERA and 31 saves a year with almost 12 K/9.  That is dominant.

Because of 4.70 ERA in 2018 and corresponding difficulties he’s a question.  But a worthy gamble due to the potential of prior years and no obvious injury.

Conclusion

Ultimately I believe Kimbrel will come back if he’s asking for a reasonable salary.  But if he’s pushing $20 Million like Mark Melancon I see a few appealing options out there that have pitched in the American League, in the playoffs, and are at reasonable age.

The 2019 Red Sox Bullpen: Joe Kelly or David Robertson

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There are changes coming to the 2019 Red Sox Bullpen.  Two big pieces, closer Craig Kimbrel and Joe Kelly, are both free agents.  Who is worth paying to keep and what are some options out there?

Today is the beginning of our deep dive into those questions.  We start with Joe Kelly.

Joe Kelly

Kelly had an indelible stamp on the 2018 team.  He started the year by blowing game 1.  He became Jim Buchanon and started a Joe Kelly Fight Club faze when he called out Tyler Austin of the Yankees.  Then he became an afterthought and albatross around the neck of the bullpen as the summer dragged on.

But then, in the playoffs, the mid-bullpen became a strength, because he became a strength.  In six innings in the World Series he had a 0.00 ERA and 10 strikeouts.  That is domination.

However, is that the Joe Kelly we know for any other stretch of time?  His ERA over the past three years has been 4.12 during the regular season.  His fastball has averaged 97.8 MPH over that same time.  How is that?

It has been noted frequently that his fastball is straight, and he could not get his breaking ball over for strikes.  This lead to walks, a lot of them.  Almost 5 per 9 innings, 4.67 to be exact.

It feels like instead of only relying on his gifted arm that can throw gas with ease, he finally starting pitching in this postseason.  Because he threw his breaking ball for strikes, it was almost that simple.

It’s at least a question whether he can repeat it.  Will he continue to work after winning the World Series?  Is he worth betting on?  History says no.  How about an alternative?

David Robertson

One name is David Robertson.  He has spent the past year and a half toiling in the mid to late innings for the New York Yankees.  Before that he was the Chicago White Sox closer.  Unlike Craig Kimbrel, Robertson has proven he can work in different innings and different game situations.

He throws a lot softer than Joe Kelly, averaging 91.9 MPH over the same 3 year period.  But his ERA weighs in at 2.85, about 30% better than Kelly.   He also strikes out 25% more batters.  How can this be?

Because he throws more strikes, and he pitches rather than throws.  He walks a batter less than Kelly.  Less runners on base leads to fewer runs allowed.

Conclusion

It’s not perfect.  Robertson still walks 3.7 per 9 innings, that’s high for a reliever.  Robertson is also 3 years older than Kelly.

But Kelly was not given the 8th inning with a lead until game 5 of the World Series.  This was not an accident, Cora didn’t trust him there.  Robertson can work the 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, whatever you want.

Robertson will command north of what he’s making now, $13 Million per year.  Kelly probably much less.  But a team could bid up Kelly and make him expensive.

The choice here is Robertson, if you can convince him.  He’s representing himself in free agent negotiations and probably looking for closing opportunities.

The Red Sox might have an opening at closer.  More on that tomorrow.