There are changes coming to the 2019 Red Sox Bullpen. Two big pieces, closer Craig Kimbrel and Joe Kelly, are both free agents. Who is worth paying to keep and what are some options out there?
Today is the beginning of our deep dive into those questions. We start with Joe Kelly.
Joe Kelly
Kelly had an indelible stamp on the 2018 team. He started the year by blowing game 1. He became Jim Buchanon and started a Joe Kelly Fight Club faze when he called out Tyler Austin of the Yankees. Then he became an afterthought and albatross around the neck of the bullpen as the summer dragged on.
But then, in the playoffs, the mid-bullpen became a strength, because he became a strength. In six innings in the World Series he had a 0.00 ERA and 10 strikeouts. That is domination.
However, is that the Joe Kelly we know for any other stretch of time? His ERA over the past three years has been 4.12 during the regular season. His fastball has averaged 97.8 MPH over that same time. How is that?
It has been noted frequently that his fastball is straight, and he could not get his breaking ball over for strikes. This lead to walks, a lot of them. Almost 5 per 9 innings, 4.67 to be exact.
It feels like instead of only relying on his gifted arm that can throw gas with ease, he finally starting pitching in this postseason. Because he threw his breaking ball for strikes, it was almost that simple.
It’s at least a question whether he can repeat it. Will he continue to work after winning the World Series? Is he worth betting on? History says no. How about an alternative?
David Robertson
One name is David Robertson. He has spent the past year and a half toiling in the mid to late innings for the New York Yankees. Before that he was the Chicago White Sox closer. Unlike Craig Kimbrel, Robertson has proven he can work in different innings and different game situations.
He throws a lot softer than Joe Kelly, averaging 91.9 MPH over the same 3 year period. But his ERA weighs in at 2.85, about 30% better than Kelly. He also strikes out 25% more batters. How can this be?
Because he throws more strikes, and he pitches rather than throws. He walks a batter less than Kelly. Less runners on base leads to fewer runs allowed.
Conclusion
It’s not perfect. Robertson still walks 3.7 per 9 innings, that’s high for a reliever. Robertson is also 3 years older than Kelly.
But Kelly was not given the 8th inning with a lead until game 5 of the World Series. This was not an accident, Cora didn’t trust him there. Robertson can work the 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, whatever you want.
Robertson will command north of what he’s making now, $13 Million per year. Kelly probably much less. But a team could bid up Kelly and make him expensive.
The choice here is Robertson, if you can convince him. He’s representing himself in free agent negotiations and probably looking for closing opportunities.
The Red Sox might have an opening at closer. More on that tomorrow.
The 2018 World Champion Boston Red Sox beat the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 5 and cemented their status as the most dominant team in baseball.
Steve Pearce
This was a win that felt inevitable from the first pitch. Thanks to World Series MVP Steve Pearce it pretty much was.
Over 3 at bats at the end of game 4 and the beginning of game 5 Pearce was unstoppable. 2 Home Runs, a Double, and 6 RBI. He threw in another homer in the 8th to put the cherry on top of this Championship.
Turns out that kind of performance puts you shoulder to shoulder with MLB Legends. Here’s a couple of facts that stand out.
Steve Pearce joins Babe Ruth in 1927 and Lou Gehrig in 1928 with at least one home run and three RBI in back to back World Series Games.
Pearce, Ruth, and Ted Kluszewski are the only players in history to have a multiple home run game at age 35 or older in the World Series
Pearce told Andrew Benintendi before the series started that he wanted to win World Series MVP so he could go to the owners’ box at a Patriots game and sit with Bob Kraft and Bon Jovi. Mission accomplished my man.
I thought this World Series would invoke Legends, little did I know Steve Pearce would join them.
David Price
David Price dopped the mic on his postseason failures for all time. In this game he went 7 plus innings, 1 run, 5 strikeouts. Doing that on full rest would’ve been beyond outstanding.
But he didn’t just out-duel Clayton Kershaw, he did it on shortest of short rest. He pitched in 4 out of the 5 World Series games. In the game he didn’t pitch he warmed up. On the biggest stage he had the best stretch of his career.
Alex Cora on David Price: “David loves to be ready to compete on a daily basis. He enjoys being available, and he was available the whole time. (He texted) Count on me, use me, he just wanted to compete.”
Chris Sale: “I’m gonna tell my grand kids about (playing with) David Price.”
Here’s some pretty sweet play by play that shows David Price’s joy.
Chris Sale punches out Manny Machado. More on this in a moment.
Christian Vazquez runs to Chris Sale and look who gets there next.
What a moment for David Price, just look at his face!
Live it up David, you earned it.
Chris Sale
This says it all when it comes to what Chris Sale means to this team. Look at his teammates as he comes out of the bullpen to start the 9th inning last night.
I didn’t see Craig Kimbrel getting a standing ovation by his teammates coming into any games this post season.
And the way he had Manny Machado flailing on that immaculate slider. Satisfaction of the highest order.
Alex Cora
All night in the post game it was a Song of Alex Cora from all the players and ownership. Because he put the players in a position to succeed. He communicated at an all time level. He was outstanding at every little thing.
Alex Cora has been the Night’s King since Hardhome: All out aggressive and piling up wins.
He’s pulled all the right levers this postseason and he was on his game last night.
Steve Pearce batting third? Check. David Price batting in the top of the eighth? Check. Bring in Chris Sale who will probably need surgery next week to close? Check mate.
He has won the World Series as a player, a bench coach, and now a manager.
Ownership
Take a bow guys. 4 Championships in 14 years. They cleaned house after last year and chose the right guy in Alex Cora. These guys are good.
Nathan Eovaldi
A quick word about iron man Nathan Eovaldi. Take it away John Henry: “I mean he set us up, so that for the next two nights our bullpen was in good shape, and their wasn’t, that was the difference.”
It could be said no Eovaldi, no World Series Championship.
The Red Sox bullpen won them game two, and the World Series last night. Yep, that was not a typo. The Sox bullpen which was ninth in the majors in ERA is shoving the bats down the Dodgers throats in this series. If anyone just watched the Sox bullpen during the regular season they would understand why this is so absurd. Joe freaking Kelly who could not find the plate in the second half of the season is mowing hitters down. Let’s take a closer look at how the Sox pen turned it around.
The real key to the turn around in the bullpen has been “The Rover”. That is what Alex Cora calls using a starting pitcher out of the bullpen. The biggest question coming into the playoffs and throughout the regular season was who was gonna bridge the gap to Kimbrel. It became such a problem the Sox practically had tryouts for the eighth inning in September. Steven Wright was even giving a chance that should tell you how desperate Cora was. However, it seemed like Cora had the answer all along.
Nathan Eovaldi has been lights out in the postseason especially coming out of the pen. Sale and Porcello have also provided key innings out of the pen but Eovaldi has been the story. In 3.1 innings out of the pen, Eovaldi has allowed one hit and struck out two. Eovaldi started his career with the Dodgers in 2011 and has come full circle to haunt them in their quest for a World Series. Six batters have come to the plate against Eovaldi and he has set all six down. Everyone was clamoring for a power arm out of the pen and another starter. Dombroski went out and got both for the price of one.
As noted the biggest problem for the Sox was who was gonna pitch the seventh and the eight in a tight game. All season long Cora was rotating through guys night in and night out hoping something would stick. Now Cora finally has a plan. In game two of the World Series with a two-run lead, Joe Kelly came out of the bullpen and was ridiculous. The thought of Kelly pitching in a two-run game in the World Series a month ago would have been laughable. Kelly is now pitching like the best reliever on either team. He has struck out six of the four batters and has looked like Andrew Miller of a few years ago.
Barnes who sat out most of September with a hip injury has been lights out this postseason. In 7.1 innings this postseason, Barnes has allowed only two hits, one run, and has struck out six. Barnes has always had good stuff his problem has been spotting his fastball and throwing his curveball for strikes. This postseason, Barnes’ off-speed pitch has been nasty. In game four of the ALCS, Barnes came out of the pen and threw two beautiful curveballs on the outside part of the plate to secure the strikeout and get out of a jam. If Barnes has a feel for that curveball, he can be a weapon.
The most important difference for the Sox pitching staff has been the approach. Finally, the Sox pitchers are attacking hitters. From Price to Kimbrel every single pitcher on the Red Sox is pounding the inside corner. Its the most basic style of pitching hard stuff inside sets up soft stuff away. Kimbrel in his past two appearances has been effective because he is not trying to pick a corner. Instead, he is throwing gas inside and jamming hitters. Every pitch works off that fastball. It does not matter how hard you throw; if you cannot control the inside of the plate, you are going to get crushed. Cora and his staff deserve a lot of credit for coming to their senses. As a result, the Sox’ biggest weakness has become a weapon.
The Dodgers just dispatched the upstart Brewers and move on to face the Red Sox in the 2018 World Series. Cue the grainy black and white photos of The Babe in a Red Sox uniform. Let us see the Dropkick Murphy’s grinding rendition of Tessie.
Cue fans using the Brooklyn Robins in barroom and water cooler talk, and a million google searches for ‘Red Sox-Dodgers world series history’ hitting the 1916 World Series page on Wikipedia. Cue every old Brooklyn Dodger fan coming out of the woodwork, and the slightly less grainy photos and videos of Roy Campanella, Jackie Robinson, and Pee Wee Reese. A mountain of content on the 1988 LA Dodgers World Series winners will come out.
Cue Fever Pitch where the old guy counts off the string of Red Sox world series wins in 1912, 1915, 1916, 1918. Prompt Dave Roberts making his fateful steal in the bottom of the 9th in game 4 against Mariano Rivera. Cue pictures of Alex Cora in an LA Dodgers uniform. The rating of this series is through the roof!
It’s an old-school, original 6 type of World Series that will be chock full of intrigue and potential controversy.
Detroit Public Library
THE RED SOX
With a resounding thud, all the doubting and putting down of the 2018 Red Sox has been pushed off the desks of commentators nationwide. This team is an absolute wagon with a horseshoe, four-leafed clover, and all the baseball gods in their back pocket.
All the beautiful poignant vignettes of warm feelings are still cascading around the Red Sox: The Alex Cora birthday serenade in the clubhouse after beating the Houston Astros in 5 games. David Price’s moment with friends and family that choked everyone up. Alex Cora talking about the Red Sox sending supplies to his storm-ravaged homeland. Alex Cora is the first manager from Puerto Rico to take his team to the World Series.
Yes, changing managers can make a world of difference in the day to day operations clubhouse and team. It doesn’t hurt that Cora is batting, oh, around .800 with his in-game and lineup decisions so far in the playoffs.
There’s every reason in our provincial New England bubble to expect a romp over the Dodgers in the World Series. The bats are batting: JBJ! JD! PEARCY! MITCHY! The gloves are catching: BENNY! MOOKIE! The pitchers pitching: PRICE! BRASIER! KELLY! BARNES! PORCELLO! Even maybe SALE! Possibly KIMBREL!
THE DODGERS
PITCHING
And yet, there is a reason to pause.
When it comes to the match-ups there’s not much, but what there is tends to favor the Dodgers. Of the four starting pitchers on LA (Clayton Kershaw, Hyun-Jin Ryu, local boy made good Rich Hill, Walker Buehler), there’s only one player on the Red Sox who have any history. That’s JD Martinez against Kershaw. It’s a minuscule 8 at-bats, but JD has managed a home run, double and .375 average against the talented lefty.
HITTING
On the other side are two individuals that show up again and again.
We’ll start with Brian Dozier. He may not be what he once was, but he has a boatload of experience against the suddenly vaunted Red Sox staff. Dozier’s batting average doesn’t jump off the page, but the power does: Against Chris Sale, David Price, Nathan Eovaldi, and Rick Porcello, Dozier has 9 doubles and 9 home runs in 146 at-bats. If we push those to a full season that’s a 36 double and 36 homer pace.
And he’s the appetizer.
The main man, the designated villain of Red Sox fans and now most of Baseball, is none other than Manny Machado. The side stepper, the slide stabber, the very very bad man.
And he’s a force against the Red Sox pitchers: 4 doubles, 9 homers, 108 at-bats. That’s a projected 18 doubles and, gulp, 41 home runs, and also hits a combined .298 against the Boston starters.
Throw in the fact that the Sox batters haven’t seen the Dodgers pitchers and it could be an edge for the boys in blue.
We finish with one more subtle note on Alex Cora’s staff. The hitting coach of the Red Sox is Tim Hyers. If that name doesn’t leap off the page, it’s not your fault. Hyers does what the best coaches do, he lets the players shine and stays in the shadows.
It turns out Mr. Hyers was the Dodgers assistant hitting coach last year. That means he has the inside track on the Dodgers best hitters, including Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger, and Yasiel Puig among others.
It’s going to be a fun series, why do we have to wait until Tuesday?
More than anything else, this has been a season about silencing the haters and doubters. The Red Sox won back to back AL East titles in 2016 and 2017, but only had a single playoff win to show for it. Mookie Betts followed up an MVP runner-up season with a step back last year. Jackie Bradley Jr is a killer outfielder who couldn’t hit his way out of a paper bag. Alex Cora was a first year manager taking over the team with baseball’s largest payroll. David Price had more than enough demons to deal with. JD Martinez was a premier free agent signing, but he wasn’t Giancarlo Stanton. And that’s just scratching the surface.
The list of question marks entering this season seemed endless.The Sox responded for seven months with nothing but definitive, defiant, and resounding answers en route to a franchise record 108 wins. Even so, the questions started creeping in once more after a tough game loss to the Astros. Boston rose to the challenge yet again.
On Thursday night, the Red Sox won their 115th game of the season to punch their ticket to the World Series, beating the defending champs in 5 games. Any questions anyone had about this team has been officially rendered moot.
David Price Steps Up
Game 5’s story starts with David Price. With Chris Sale sidelined an extra game with a stomach illness, and the bullpen taxed to the limit, Boston needed their most expensive player to come through. Price, finally and triumphantly, delivered.
The left-hander tossed 6 shutout innings, allowing only three hits and striking out 9. He had all his pitches working, and located them with ease.
Price has gotten so much flak for his past postseason struggles, but he absolutely rose to the challenge in a huge spot last night. As John Lackey can attest, the quickest way to win over Red Sox Nation is to win in October. It looks like Price is well on his way to doing just that.
Devers and Martinez Go Yard
JD Martinez got the Sox going in the top of the 3rd with this absolute ROCKET to left field:
Martinez was 1-11 through the first three games of this series, but he turned it on in Games 4 and 5, going 4-7 with a HR and a pair of RBI. If he can keep it going through the World Series, the Brewers or Dodgers will be in trouble.
The difference in this one was a 3-run Devers dinger in the top of the 6th.
Rafael Devers with a three-run bomb off one of the best postseason pitchers of all-time on a damn school night. pic.twitter.com/6pG0hqqizA
Remember earlier in this postseason when Eduardo Nunez was the starting third baseman? Yeah, me neither. Devers continues to be clutch in the playoffs. Some quick stats floating around during the game last night:
Devers has joined the short list of players with 3+ postseason homers before their 22nd birthday. The other names on the list: Mickey Mantle, Miguel Cabrera, Bryce Harper, and Andruw Jones.
Here’s Raffy’s line through 10 playoff games: 36 PA, .354/.417/.645, 3 HR, 12 RBI.
I’m starting to think this kid might have a bright future ahead of him.
Jackie Bradley Jr: ALCS MVP
That’s right, Jackie Bradley Jr. was the most valuable player in this series. He only had 3 hits in 17 at-bats, but he made each one count. His 9 RBI were a series high, and the Sox absolutely could not have done it without him. Bradley has often been a divisive player, whose defensive prowess is consistently at odds with his lack of offensive consistency. But, he’s the longest tenured everyday player on the roster, and it’s awesome to see him have his moment in the postseason.
Other Observations
What a sick twist of fate that Game 4’s controversial fan interference call was essentially erased by an almost identical play by Betts last night. If you needed any more evidence that the Curse of the Bambino is long gone, look no further.
Alex Bregman probably regrets logging into Instagram before Game 3, huh? Price wasn’t about to let him forget it, either. Good news is the Astros third baseman will have plenty of time to mull things over this winter.
Cora was occasionally unconventional, and occasionally left me scratching my head over some of his choices. None of it mattered. He’s pushed just about every right button through the first two rounds of postseason play.
Nathan Eovaldi has been nails all postseason. He came up big yet again with four outs late in this one, to bridge the gap to Craig Kimbrel in the 9th. For all of the chatter about Dave Dombrowski’s inability to address the bullpen midseason, he absolutely crushed the Eovaldi and Steve Pearce acquisitions.
Craig Kimbrel wasn’t perfect, but he looked better than he has in weeks. Hopefully that’s a sign he’s coming out of this funk.
The Red Sox have 4 more wins to go before winning their 4th championship in 15 seasons. October 23rd can’t come soon enough. For now, time to celebrate. What a night, what a series, what a win.
Another night; another heart attack brought on by Red Sox closer Craig Kimbrel, but another win. This has become commonplace in close Red Sox victories this postseason, as Kimbrel has been a disaster on the mound, but has ultimately finished out each game successfully; somehow.
Kimbrel appears to be a disaster waiting to happen, so what should the Red Sox do with him moving forward?
Pitch Him In Lower Leverage Situation
I think Kimbrel needs to be taken out of the closer role, at least temporarily. He absolutely cannot be trusted right now. Even if the next game is close, I would use other pitchers in the late innings.
If there is an opportunity in the near future to pitch Kimbrel in a game that isn’t very close, the Red Sox should take it. I’m not sure if nerves are playing a factor, they likely are, but Kimbrel can barely find the strike zone.
Maybe working in a lower leverage spot Kimbrel can find the strike zone. Maybe he won’t be able to, but you can’t have a guy throwing ball after ball trying to close out games.
There have been multiple times this postseason where Kimbrel has been brought on to protect a three-run lead and hasn’t thrown strikes. In that situation, the only goal is to throw strikes; a home run can’t beat you, throw the ball over the plate and make them work for it. Kimbrel has been giving the opposition baserunners without much fight.
Kimbrel’s Struggles
Craig Kimbrel has pitched in four games this postseason and allowed the opposition to score in all four. Just let that sink in for a moment.
His ERA is standing at 8.44 after last night and he has put 13 baserunners on in only 5.1 innings pitched. 13! Kimbrel has walked five batters and hit two as he struggles to locate his pitches. On numerous occasions he has yanked his fastball, missing so far outside the catcher is left reaching as far as he can to corral it. Other times, his breaking ball is a wild pitch waiting to happen. He has been playing with fire and somehow has yet to be fully burned. It’s only a matter of time if something is not done.
In game four of the ALDS, pitching with a three run lead, Kimbrel walked two batters and hit another. He threw 28 pitches to get three outs, less than half of them going for strikes. He came about as close to blowing that game as one could without actually blowing it.
His next outing he gave up back-to-back two out hits before a fly ball from Alex Bregman nearly tied the game.
Last night was another heart attack, walking three batters and hitting another. He faced 11 batters to close out the three run lead. Kimbrel has now thrown a whopping 101 pitches in his four postseason appearances. And then there is this:
Craig Kimbrel's last clean postseason outing in a game his team was winning when he entered was 8 years ago!
Despite everyone being worried about the Red Sox bullpen entering the postseason, Kimbrel has been the problem. Others have pitched very well, excluding Brandon Workman. Workman shouldn’t pitch unless the game is a blowout, he’s the only guy that’s been worse than Kimbrel.
Ryan Brasier struggled in his first postseason appearance but did not allow a run. He seemed to have cleared his postseason jitters with that performance because he has been nails since. Brasier is up to seven scoreless innings over seven appearances.
Matt Barnes has also come up big, netting a big strike out looking to end the seventh last night. Barnes has now thrown 5.2 shutout innings over six appearances this postseason. These are currently the Sox two most trustworthy relievers, like it or not. At least for now, they should be getting the highest leverage spots.
In addition to them, others are also performing well. Heath Hembree has thrown 3.2 shutout innings, albeit not in any tight spots. Joe Kelly has stepped up his game, showing the good side of his pitching. Kelly has allowed one run over 5.1 innings without issuing a walk. The strike throwing is refreshing.
Ideally Kimbrel is the ninth inning guy; he’s been doing it a long time and it helps set up the bullpen better. But for the moment, he can not be trusted with the way he is throwing, and the Red Sox need to try someone else.
A few quick thoughts on the return of Red Sox-Yankees postseason baseball, right after I hand out some high fives to Will, Chuckie, Morgan, and Billy…
What a way to kick things off, huh? The Sox jumped out early, and managed to hang on for a 5-4 win to take Game 1 at Fenway Park. Boston hit the ground running, thanks to a 3-run laser over the Monster from JD Martinez:
From there, the Sox seemed like they were on cruise control, extending the lead to 5-0 after plating a couple more runs in the third. Everything was working in their favor early. Guys were getting on base. Alleged “Red Sox Killer” JA Happ was bounced after 2+ innings. Chris Sale was dealing.
Then, Alex Cora decided to take his ace out in the top of the 6th, and it all (almost) went to hell.
I completely understand the logic behind pulling Sale. He wasn’t right all September, and the plan all season long has been to conserve the lanky lefty as much as possible. Sale also had allowed two hits already that inning, and had thrown 93 pitches (his highest total since July 27th).
On the flip side, Sale was nearly untouchable while he was in the game. His much scrutinized fastball velocity returned to the 94-96 mph range, after sitting in the low 90s during his final regular season start. His slider was in peak form, both in terms of break and placement:
Sale was charged with 2 runs in 5.1 innings, while striking out 8. All things considered, it was a great bounce back performance from his last postseason start. However, it wasn’t enough for Cora to trust him to work out of a 6th inning jam.
The Yankees immediately stormed back with Sale out, while Ryan Brasier and Brandon Workman took turns spiking curves 8 feet in front of home plate. To Workman’s credit, he did manage to stop the sixth inning bleeding with a BALLSY 3-2 hook to Gleyber Torres with the bases juiced.
Brandon Workman striking out Gleyber Torres with the bases loaded and a full count was HUGE pic.twitter.com/da5eYGwQtd
Cora stuck with Workman to start the 7th, and he promptly gave up a pair of singles to Andrew McCutchen and Aaron Judge. Enter Matt Barnes, who then walked Brett Gardner to load the bases.
Barnes eventually was able to slither out of trouble, allowing only one run to score on a fielder’s choice.
All of this is to say that things were so indescribably shaky that Cora felt the need to bring in former AL Cy Young Award winner and scheduled Game 3 starter Rick Porcello to bridge the gap to Craig Kimbrel. It worked – Porcello recorded two 8th inning outs on only 15 pitches to set up a 4-out save for Kimbrel. However, it was a move that reeked of desperation. Perhaps a more seasoned manager would not have pressed the Porcello panic button in Game 1. Either way, it goes to show that this Sox bullpen is clearly going to be a problem going forward this postseason.
Kimbrel was able to shut the door on this one, despite giving up a leadoff home run to Judge in the 9th. Outside of that, Kimbrel had his good stuff, including this obscene knuckle-curve to hand Giancarlo Stanton his Golden Sombrero:
Kimbrel mopped up Luke Voit with a 98 mph heater to end it, and give the Sox a white-knuckle playoff win. Phew.
Other Observations
David Price is on the hill tonight for the Sox. I feel better about him in a Game 2 at home than an elimination game in Yankee Stadium. That isn’t saying much.
The Red Sox bullpen wasn’t great (le duh). The bottom of the lineup, however, was even worse. Nunez, Kinsler, Leon and Bradley went a combined 1-13. Granted, the Sox have been top-heavy all season long. But it’s hard to feel great about their chances this month if the bottom half is going to be a collective zero.
It’s hard to fear Stanton after a 4 K effort at the plate. I am, however, terrified of Voit and Judge. Just wanted to update where my head is at.
Sandy Leon was the real MVP last night. He made block after block while the Red Sox middle relievers played “Who Can Bounce A Baseball Best?”. On a night where Ron Darling described Gary Sanchez as an “excellent” defensive catcher, it was nice to see Leon step up and show why he’s in the lineup.
All that being said, HUGE win in Game 1, to (somewhat) silence the doubters that this 108-win team would get steamrolled by their second-place rivals. We’re on to Game 2.
It’s pretty hard to believe it’s been 14 years since we’ve had a playoff series featuring Major League Baseball’s premier rivalry. The Red Sox and Yankees will kick off their first postseason matchup since 2004 later tonight, and on paper it looks to be a doozy. Two 100-win juggernauts. Over $400 million in combined payroll. Stars all over the diamond. History everywhere. I can’t wait.
I’ll be breaking down both sides of this series, and then picking a winner at the end. But before we get into all of that, let’s take a little trip down memory lane:
Okay, glad we got that out of our systems. On to the good stuff.
Starting Lineup
The Red Sox led the majors in just about every major offensive category this season. They placed first in total runs, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging, and wOBA. Boston was led by MVP-caliber seasons from Mookie Betts (.346/.438/.640) and JD Martinez (.330/.402/.629), though the Sox received significant contributions from others as well. Andrew Benintendi improved dramatically on his rookie campaign. Jackie Bradley Jr. slashed .282/.349/.502 over his final 284 plate appearances after a dismal start. Xander Bogaerts finally shook off his second half demons to post a career year.
And yet, there are some holes, and question marks (specifically at second base, third base, and catcher). Meanwhile, the Yankees offense is just as potent, if not more so. The Bronx Bombers tied the Dodgers for the best wRC+ in baseball (the Red Sox were a close 3rd). They also broke the Major League record for home runs in a season, with 269. That last one is a big point in the Yankees favor, as teams who hit more HR tend to have more success in October.
The slugging starts with Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge, who both homered in Wednesday’s Wild Card game. Luke Voit has been a revelation at first base, where his 188 OPS+ over 148 PA has lengthened an already long lineup and provided a boon desperately needed after poor seasons from Greg Bird and Gary Sanchez. That’s not to mention the production from rookies Miguel Andujar and Gleybar Torres. Plus, Brian Cashman was able to throw former NL MVP Andrew McCutchen into the mix in August.
The Sox have a great offense, but it feels like New York’s is a bit more formidable for this time of year.
Slight Edge: Yankees
Starting Pitching
Here’s how the first three starting pitching matchups seem to be shaking out:
Game 1 – J.A. Happ vs. Chris Sale
Game 2 – Mashiro Tanaka vs. David Price
Game 3 – Rick Porcello vs. Luis Severino
That certainly feels like it favors the Red Sox. Three AL Cy Young Award winners should be enough to tip this category in Boston’s favor. That is, until you include each pitcher’s career postseason ERA…
Game 1 – J.A. Happ (3.72) vs. Chris Sale (8.38)
Game 2 – Masahiro Tanaka (1.44) vs. David Price (5.03)
Game 3 – Rick Porcello (5.47) vs. Luis Severino (4.50)
Look, I get it. Postseason baseball is a small sample size, and past performance isn’t always indicative of future performance, especially in that scenario. But it’s hard to feel too confident, given Price’s non-Rays playoff history, Porcello’s inability to keep the ball in the yard, and Sale’s dip in velocity since returning from multiple summer DL stints. The Yankees starters might not have the same upside, but they certainly feel less volatile. The Happ acquisition continues to loom large. He’s undefeated since joining the Yankees, and has a career 2.98 ERA against the Red Sox. If he can beat Sale in Game 1, it’ll be a bad omen for the Sox’s chances through the weekend. I’m choosing to trust that the Red Sox starters are ready to turn a corner this postseason, but I don’t feel great about it.
Slight Edge: Red Sox
Bullpen
I’ll save you the suspense. This is a huge win (obviously) for the Yankees, and will likely be the deciding factor should the Yankees come out on top. The Red Sox bullpen, while much maligned over the past month, has actually been perfectly above average this season. Craig Kimbrel still looms at the end of games as a premier closer, and rebounded from a mid-summer swoon with a 13 appearance stretch where he allowed only 3 hits and 1 earned run between 8/12 and 9/21. Still, a 4 run implosion in his second to last appearance of the year against the lowly Orioles bumped his ERA to 2.74, the second worst mark of his career.
The rest of the Sox bullpen is fine. Solid, unspectacular, and far from reliable (unless you’re really into the Matt Barnes Experience).
The Yankees ‘pen, conversely, reads like a damn All-Star team. There’s Chapman and Britton. There’s Betances and Robertson. Chad Green may not have as big of a name as his teammates, but he might be the most consistent of the bunch. New York can trot any and all of these guys out there in a high leverage situation, and be reasonably comfortable that the outcome will be in their favor. They led the league in reliever fWAR, and while the Red Sox have had their share of come-from-behind wins this year, they’ll be hard pressed to overcome any substantial deficits in this series.
Major Edge: Yankees
Bench X Factor
Steve Pearce has been a terrific mid-season addition for the Red Sox, providing a boost at a premium offensive position as Mitch Moreland struggled down the stretch. But Brock Holt is the guy here. He can play nearly every position on the diamond, and had perhaps the best all-around season of his career. Holt slashed .277/.362/.411 with a 109 OPS+ this year, and had plenty of clutch moments off the bench:
Holt had 5 hits in 15 pinch-hitting plate appearances, 4 of which went for extra bases. Alex Cora will almost definitely call his number in a tight spot again this series, and Holt will need to deliver.
For the Yankees, Austin Romine *should* be the starting catcher. But, because the baseball gods would never want to deprive us of the joy of watching Gary Sanchez trot after yet another passed ball, he’s stuck in a platoon. If Aaron Boone is smart, he’ll put his best lineup on the field. Fingers crossed nobody gives him a heads up.
Edge: Red Sox
Manager
Cora has been a breath of fresh air for the Red Sox off the field and in the clubhouse this season. After two years of underachieving relative to their talent, the Sox took off under their first year manager’s watch. Cora hasn’t been perfect with his in game decisions, and it does seem like he lingers with guys a bit longer than I would like. However, he’s been excellent as rookie managers go on the whole.
I’ll just say I don’t get the same vibe from Boone, and leave it at that. Plus, I kind of miss Joe Girardi and his binder.
Edge: Red Sox
The Pick
I really want to pick the Yankees. While I think the Red Sox are a better team overall, and better suited for a full 162 game slate, New York feels built for the postseason, especially a short series. The bullpen discrepancy is a major check in the Yankees favor. In a series that figures to be as tight as this one, such an advantage is a major red flag for Boston.
But screw that. What’s the point of writing for a Red Sox blog if you don’t think the best regular season team in franchise history can make it out of the first round?
The 2018 Red Sox are not only the team with the best record in baseball, they are the winningest team in franchise history. They have the chance to become the first team to reach 110+ wins since the 2001 Seattle Mariners. That is incredibly special, but many people want to ask: How special is it really?
Everyone can state that 106 wins is a rare feat, and they’re right. However, the numbers pertaining to how good this team is may shock you. Here, the 2018 Red Sox will be analyzed and compared to every single Red Sox team since 1930.
Offense
The 2018 Red Sox have two players who will likely eat up most of this season’s MVP votes in Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez. This team is an offensive catalyst that leads all of baseball in almost every single category. After a power absent offensive season in 2017, this team has transformed itself. One can almost call it mature or seasoned, at this point. Xander Bogaerts will more than likely reach the 100 RBI mark, Mookie will have a 30/30 year and Andrew Benintendi reached his career high in hits. They hit well against everyone, in any venue, and their record proves it.
Credit: Fangraphs (2018)
How Clutch Are They?
The Sox rank 25th in OPS (.787), 16th in wRC+ (109), 50th in batting average (.267), and 25th in runs scored (833). These are not mind-blowing numbers by any means. However, delving deeper into the numbers can show that the team is extremely clutch. In fact, they rank 3rd in a factor that Fangraphs literally calls “Clutch“. Granted, a Red Sox team without David Ortiz will never be as clutch as it could be. This 2018 team is different, and it can finally be said that they no longer need Big Papi in order to find success. On the season, the Red Sox rank first in RBIs which shows how efficient they have been. Not only do they get on base, but they also deliver when there is a chance to bring guys home.
The Red Sox currently have 199 home runs (12th) and will more than likely break the top 10 in franchise history. On the contrary, they walk at a rate of only 8.9, which lands them at the 59th spot. As far as strikeouts go, they rank 3rd highest at a 19.8% rate (which is still good for 5th lowest among teams in 2018). This trend can be attributed to a few things, such as the evolution of baseball or the aggressive hitting style Alex Cora has introduced. Another important asset of this team is the way they steal bases. They steal bases as efficiently as anyone has seen in recent years, even while lacking a true speedster. A 79.47 SB% ranks them first in all of baseball in 2018. The team has finally ditched the “Lead Sox” cliché.
(Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images)
Pitching
The 2018 Red Sox are known to have many public opinions about their pitching staff. It seems that one day, the pitchers can do no wrong and the next day, they are the worst pitching staff ever. Many pitchers have had moments of brilliance in this historic season. One could say that the Sox are having a decent season especially when compared to better pitching staffs like the Astros or the Dodgers. Comparing the 2018 Sox to those of season’s past show where this team’s true strength is.
Credit: Fangraphs (2018)
Dominant Outings
A simple comparison to those teams of the last 88 years will reveal that the 2018 Red Sox rank 12th in ERA (3.67), 2nd in strikeouts (1499), 1st in batting average against (.234), 3rd in WHIP (1.24), and 7th in saves (46). The average fan may think that the hitting has been the main reason for success this season, but the pitching is just as important. Having a good pitching staff that limits the opposition is very important. On the contrary, runs win games and having a great offense is key to making a deep playoff push. Having both on the same team in the same season is a deadly combination.
A more analytical viewpoint will show that the Slider has been the most effective pitch for the 2018 Red Sox. They posted a wSL figure of 27.1 and a wFB of 32.1 which is 4th best in the last two decades, for fastballs. They attained an xFIP of 3.92, which coincides with their team ERA and alludes to their defense being a good source of help for the year. Finally, when it comes to SIERA (my favorite pitching stat), the Red Sox have amounted to a figure of 3.73. This basically means that the pitching staff does an above average job at limiting hits and runs scored (they rank 5th out of all teams in 2018).
This team will be looked at as one of the best in Red Sox history. Regardless of if they win a World Series title or not, this shows how far they have come and how much more these kids have to give. Boston is stuck with this core for a while and that should be celebrated for the fact that many teams go decades without witnessing something like this.
The bullpen has been a thorn in the Boston Red Sox’s side many times in 2018. To say that it is a bad bullpen is, quite frankly, a bad statement. However, it seems that they may not be a threatening bullpen to opposing teams. They can get the job done, but are they reliable to have a lock-down inning when needed? Red Sox fans loathe the moment when a relief pitcher comes in to a high leverage situation, in 2018.
This season has been a fantastic one as of now. Currently at 103 wins and one win away from clinching their third AL East title in as many years. The writing seems to be already on the wall for this impending postseason. The bullpen is barely trustworthy.
This is a small cloud that is seen in a huge ray of sunshine. Not to be redundant, but this Red Sox team is legitimately good. However, every team has its weaknesses and this is one that can carry into next season if not addressed. Don’t expect a trade, as the Red Sox don’t have a lot of pieces they can afford to give away for the time being. Thus, it’s never too early to look at who the Red Sox could sign in the offseason. Here are three serious options they should consider:
1. Craig Kimbrel
Hear me out on this one before you shoot me.
Yes, we all know that Kimbrel isn’t having a fantastic season. Yes, he is having the worst season of his career when it comes down to FIP. A statistic that is, of many things, very telling of how a pitcher could perform in the future.
When it comes down to who the Red Sox currently have that can take over in case of Kimbrel’s departure, it’s frightening. Currently the closer role would have to go to Ryan Brasier, who has been the most reliable pitcher this season for the Sox. Even then, Brasier is unproven (38.1 IP in his MLB career) and Kimbrel should not be replaced with Brasier just yet. Also, some current closers on the 2019 free agent market are not worth breaking the bank for.
Kimbrel knows what it’s like to pitch in Boston, experience the media, fans, ballpark and the pressure of a big market. He’s experienced success and struggles with this team. He knows what is needed of him, and he is the best available option in the 2019 free agency class. It’s time to trust Kimbrel again.
2. Andrew Miller
Andrew Miller has been on my list of “Relief pitchers I want next season” and there are a lot of reasons as to why this still holds water. Since 2016, he is ranked first (high leverage situations) in average against, ERA, FIP, xFIP, WHIP, BB/9, and K/BB among all relief pitchers that will be a free agent in 2019.
He’s been to a World Series, seen success and failure throughout his career and is a seasoned veteran. Also to note, he has a 1.10 ERA in 32.2 Postseason innings pitched.
One final note is that he has also experienced what Boston has to offer, being that he was with the club for four seasons. He knows what is expected of him just like Kimbrel, and Miller can be the guy that can bring this bullpen to a new level if added.
3. Jeurys Familia
Never would a former Mets player would be on a list of players that I would put my trust in, yet here we are.
Jeurys Familia has quietly put together a pretty good career up to this point. Albeit, he hasn’t looked unhittable since joining Oakland but that’s besides the point. His numbers in high leverage situations are very good and he does a great job at keeping the ball in the yard. Familia is someone that the Sox can potentially replace Kimbrel with if talks fall through. He’s proven to the world that he can close out games (51 saves in 2016) and can produce in a big market city.
One final note on Familia, is that he is younger than the aforementioned options. This is one less worry for when this team has to lock up some of the younger guys.
