Have you ever been in a workplace where one person was promoted while another was passed over? Have you ever lost out to someone else when pursuing the same romantic connection? Have you ever worried about your future? The impending deadline for many Red Sox contracts is the elephant in the room. Here are the dynamics.
Chris Sale
Chris Sale got a hefty 5 year $150 Million extension. In the abstract this is a great deal. Sale is an all time pitcher for many reasons, and it’s only the 37th ranked deal in major league history. Considering how good Sale has been, and how most of the top deals are happening now, it was a nice job by Dombrowski.
If everything was going well, if the team was even .500, Sale’s slow start would be no big deal. He’s taking it slow. He’s really just had his third spring training start. He’ll be throwing 99 in September and October.
But things are not going well. Which opens the door for 2nd guessing. And not just by the media and fans.
Xander Bogaerts
Again, in a vacuum, a great deal. He’s only tied for #62 on the all time list. And he’s four years younger than Sale, and repped by Scott Boras. He’s a two time champ playing a premium position and one of the top Shortstops in the game. Record contracts are being handed out, and Dombrowski got him for 6 years, $120 Million. That’s actually a bargain.
He’s playing fine. He’s hitting .280 with an .899 OPS. That’s more than fine. But if he’s not worried about living up to his (underpaid but life changing) contract, does he run on Roman Laureano the second time?
Jackie Bradley Jr. and Mookie Betts
Bradley and Betts both have one year of arbitration left. But beyond Bogaerts and Sale, players all over baseball are getting contracts, including buying out the last year of arbitration. A lot of those players don’t have World Series rings on their resume.
Both of them are stubborn in their own way. Last year Jackie would brush away changing his swing due to shifts, and Mookie is turning down $200 Million deals because he thinks he’s worth more. Xander $120, Mookie $200 looks about right from here. But Mookie is looking at Mike Trout’s $426 Million.
Are they thinking about their contracts when they are not once, but twice, not communicating in the outfield? Were they questioning turning down contracts or how they deserve more? The first time they banged into each other, but the ball was caught. The second time it bounced between them for a two run double while they stood there. Somewhere in the Statcast universe there was a machine screaming that there was an 89% chance that ball would be caught.
And did Betts have his head on straight when he challenged the clearly greatest outfield defender of our generation Roman Laureno in the 9th inning?
Porcello has been the perfect #3 starter for this team. Yes, he won a Cy Young when everything went perfectly, but he’s the steady guy who’s going to make 30 plus starts and never go on the Injured List.
One secret to his success is control. When do we loose control? When we are worried and anxious and unsure of our future. When things are uncertain. Porcello is up after 2019. He’s practically begged to be signed, saying he would give a hometown discount. And couldn’t Porcello say to himself that he’s never had to go on the Injured List. He’s actually won a Cy Young. Couldn’t he be looking sideways at Chris Sale and saying to himself “This guy gets paid but I don’t?” Don’t quote me on this, but I believe Porcello was one of the few pitchers not in the room when Sale’s extension was announced.
Yesterday was the first time since he was a young pup of 23 in 2012 that Porcello has walked at least 3 batters in back to back games. That’s one way of loosing control. Here’s another:
Some say this is a 2018 World Series hangover. From here this is a mass of confusion, worrying and anxiety about contracts.
It can be fixed. These guys have to have some pride right? It’s a 4.5 game deficit to first in the AL East right now. That’s not insurmountable, and so far the guys are healthy. But they better wake up soon.
Yesterday the New York Post’s Joel Sherman detailed how much money Mookie Betts has turned down in recent years. Mookie then gave an interview to Red Sox reporters this morning detailing how he loves it here, but will be going to free agency instead of signing a long-term deal. Cue the hang wringing across Red Sox Nation.
But the fact Mookie is going year to year for the next two years makes him the greatest value in the majors right now.
Current Contract
Betts and the Red Sox recently agreed on a $20 million contract for 2019. That set a record for a player who was subject to salary arbitration. There was speculation that Nolan Arenado would break that, before he signed an 8 year $260 Million contract instead.
Mookie has one more year of arbitration before hitting his goal of free agency. If he follows up 2018 with something similar in 2019 he’s going to set an all time record in arbitration that will be hard to beat. The Red Sox have Mookie under arbitration control for only this year and next. He will become a free agent after the 2020 season.
Historic Footing
In 2018 Mookie Betts had a 10.9 WAR according to Baseball Reference. That is 21st on the All Time list. Number one is Babe Ruth’s 1923 at 14.1, second is Ruth’s 1921 at 12.9. You get the picture. The only post 2000 seasons in front of Mookie’s are Barry Bonds in 2001 and 2002.
Value
A lot of uneasiness is coming from Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, and Nolan Arenado signing long term deals, while Mookie is refusing to. None of those players have a higher WAR season than Mookie has right now.
Currently teams are agreeing on 8 to 10 year contracts at $30 plus million dollars for the privilege of having those players on their teams. None of those guys, including Trout, has ever had a better season than Mookie. Trout is the only one with an argument. Harper’s best season was his 10 WAR season in 2015.
Again, the Red Sox are paying Mookie Betts $20 Million this year. If he is true to his word, he will not sign a long-term extension before hitting free agency.
Risk
How many long term contracts have ever worked out in the Major Leagues? Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Alex Rodriguez, Robinson Cano – these are cautionary tales. Yes, Harper and Machado, and Trout and Arenado to a lesser extent, are all younger that those other guys when they got those big contracts. But injuries, declining performance, bad team relationships, and PED use are among the many risks that come with long term deals.
The Red Sox have the luxury of the possibility of two more outstanding seasons from Mookie Betts at the shortest possible term. Yes, it would be painful to see him in another uniform. But the Red Sox cannot make him sign a contract.
It’s All Good
This is a reason for celebration Sox Nation, not doom. If the Red Sox win the World Series again in the next two years, then lose Mookie Betts to another team in free agency, that is a win.
And give it time. The Red Sox can never be counted out when it comes to paying out big contracts. The big payroll situations come at the end of 2019. They can meet any rivals head on when Mookie’s free agency hits after 2020.
With the baseball season arriving, our baseball writers have come together to predict the 2019 award winners. In this article we each choose the winner of the MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year and Manager of the Year Awards for the coming season. We will follow shortly with a second article predicting the division winners and postseason results for the coming season.
American League Most Valuable Player
Thom Howland: Jose Ramirez hit .270 last year with an unlucky 25% hit rate. With his top tier power, peak age, and a Cleveland team gunning for another AL Central crown, the time is ripe for his MVP closeup. Dark horse candidate – Jose Abreu
Scott Frizzell: It is just so hard to pick against Mike Trout. The new $430 million dollar man has finished in the top two every year of his career except one, when he finished fourth after missing six weeks of action. Dark horse candidate – Andrew Benintendi
John Principe: Coming off a year that didn’t end in him winning the MVP, I fully expect Mike Trout to again put up his insane numbers. He’s the closest thing in sports to a perennial lock, and is my pick to stay healthy and win his third MVP. Dark horse candidate – Matt Chapman
Ben Rolfe: Yes, it is the boring pick, but Mike Trout is so far above anyone else in baseball right now it is incredible. If we ignore his small rookie appearance then Trout’s average WAR is 9.2 per year and his numbers are something out of a video game. Dark horse candidate – Luke Voit
Mike Quilty: Mike Trout may be the favorite, but I think Alex Bregman will have a huge year for Houston.
Mike Trout is always a safe bet to be near the top.
National League Most Valuable Player
Thom Howland: Kris Bryant, the former MVP, is over the injuries that sapped his power last year. The Cubs are being counted out, and he will be at the center of their resurgence. Dark horse candidate – Ronald Acuna
Scott Frizzell: Paul Goldschmidt is leaving the desert for St. Louis this season, and I think he will put up his usual big numbers while helping lead the Cardinals back to the postseason for the first time since 2015. After a dreadful first two months last year, Goldy batted .330 with 26 home runs and a 1.022 OPS from June 1st on. Dark horse candidate – Ronald Acuna
John Principe: Bryce Harper is coming off an okay year, but a great contract, what’s in store for him? The new Philly slugger, to me, is poised to breakout again and have his best season since his MVP year in 2015. Look for Bryce to put up another season with an OPS over 1.000, carry his Phils to an NL East title, and win MVP while he’s at it. Dark horse candidate – Ronald Acuna
Ben Rolfe: Nolan Arenado is one of the best fielders at his position and he hits in Coors Field, which always means his hitting numbers will be right up there. His best chance is if he can lead the Rockies back to the playoffs. Dark horse candidate – Jesus Aguilar
Mike Quilty: Paul Goldschmidt had never won the award before but has been close multiple times as a D-Back. After a trade to St. Louis a change of scenery may be just what he needs.
Paul Goldschmidt joins a new team for the first time in his career.
American League Cy Young
Thom Howland: The all-time MLB leader in K/9 and K/BB will put it all together this year. After 6 straight Top 5 AL Cy Young finishes, Chris Sale will finally gain the top spot in 2019. Dark horse candidate – Eduardo Rodriguez
Scott Frizzell: Coming off a fantastic first season in Houston, I will choose Gerrit Cole to win the Cy Young this year. There is no one candidate this year that stands out to me. Dark horse candidate – Shane Bieber
John Principe: Despite struggling in the second half of 2018, I expect a massive year out of Jose Berrios. The bats are a little better behind him, which should work to his advantage. He’s a nasty pitcher with devastating off-speed stuff and will have a good chance to finish at least top 5 in Cy Young voting. Dark horse candidate – Mike Clevinger
Ben Rolfe: The drop in velocity for Chris Sale has me scared, and Gerrit Cole looked so dominant at times last year. He will be a crucial part of a playoff bound rotation and could win 20 games this season.
Mike Quilty: Chris Sale has come in the top five in each of the last six years. Injury last season ended his first shot at the award as he was pitching well. I think Sale will have an amazing year in 2019 and win his first Cy Young.
Chris Sale always finishes in the top five, but can he finally win the coveted award?
National League Cy Young
Thom Howland: Noah Syndergaard went 4-1 with two shutouts in September of last year. Finally healthy after years of nagging injuries, and with an improved Mets team behind him, the promise of his 97+ MPH fastball and devastating off-speed stuff will bring home the NL Cy Young in 2019. Dark horse candidate – Luis Castillo
Scott Frizzell: I tried Noah Syndergaard last season and instead his teammate won the award. I’m going him again. Syndergaard has the stuff to win it, reaching into the upper-90’s with his fastball with a devastating slider thrown around 92. Dark horse candidate – Walker Buehler
John Principe: Walker Buehler came up and absolutely dominated last year. With Kershaw ready to pass the load (and possibly ace status) on to Buehler, this could be a huge breakout year for him in establishing himself as a premier pitcher in the NL. Dark horse candidate – Kyle Freeland
Ben Rolfe: Patrick Corbin moves to a rotation which is known for pitching success on the back of a great 2018. Pitching alongside Max Scherzer gives a perfect person for him to be compared to all season in order to win this award. Dark horse candidate – Robbie Ray
Mike Quilty: Max Scherzer has won three times already, and had a career high last season with 300 strikeouts. He went 18-7 with a 2.53 era and probably would’ve won his fourth if not for Jacob deGrom and his historic season.
“Thor” has electric stuff, but has had some injury troubles.
American League Rookie of the Year
Thom Howland: As a 19-year-old, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. rocketed from Rookie Ball all the way to AAA last year. Along the way he managed a .381 average, 20 Home Runs, and 29 Doubles. He’ll be delayed by a few weeks, but this 20-year-old will rake once he makes the show. Dark horse candidate – Josh James
Scott Frizzell: Eloy Jimenez could have a fantastic rookie season, but it’s hard to go against Vladimir Guerrero Jr. after he hit .402 at AA last season. This could shape up similarly to the Ronald Acuna vs Juan Soto race for Rookie of the Year last season. Dark horse candidate – Josh James
John Principe: Possibly the easiest category of all, Vlad Jr. is poised for greatness regardless of when his call-up comes. He’ll be in the show this season, hopefully by the middle of May at the latest. Even with his competitors getting possibly an extra month to pad their stats, Vlad should easily win this award. Dark horse candidate – Yusei Kikuchi
Ben Rolfe: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is not a particularly fun pick, but I cannot see who else it will be. Guerrero is so talented and in a hitter friendly park, he will have every chance to put up huge numbers. Dark horse candidate – Yusei Kikuchi
Mike Quilty: Vladimir Guerrero Jr, 19-year-old son of HOF Vladimir Guerrero has dominated every level he’s played at to this point. He’s a great talent with great lineage and will now showcase his talent in the big leagues.
Vlad Jr. is the only unanimous choice.
National League Rookie of the Year
Thom Howland: Fernando Tatis Jr. is another precocious 20-year-old. He hit .286 with 16 HR and 22 Doubles last year in AA. The Padres are moving the newly minted $300 Million Dollar Manny Machado to third base so Tatis Jr. can play every day. Dark horse candidate – Pete Alonso
Scott Frizzell: Nick Senzel keeps getting moved around the field due to being blocked at the big league level all over the infield. His bat will play anywhere though. It looks like his new home will be center field for the Reds. Although I think Pete Alonso might slug 30 home runs for the Mets, I believe Senzel will have a more rounded game, batting around .300 with 15-20 home runs and stolen bases. Dark horse candidate – Chris Paddack
John Principe: The opposite of the AL, this race seems wide open to me. With no clear favorite, the Mets slugger Pete Alonso is my choice. Alonso has a brilliant eye, and lots of pop in his bat and should have a chance to play first base right away for the Mets. Dark horse candidate – Nick Senzel
Ben Rolfe: Anyone with Nick Senzel’s talent who gets to play in a hitter friendly park is always going to have a great shot of success. Add in the highlight plays he seems to be capable of making in center field and this could be a fun player to watch this season. Dark horse candidate – Chris Paddack
Mike Quilty: If Alex Reyes can finally stay healthy, he has some of the most electric stuff in the entire sport.
Nick Senzel was drafted 2nd overall in 2016.
American League Manager of the Year
Thom Howland: The Angels are an afterthought in the AL playoff picture. The A’s funky stadium and Billy Beane’s witchcraft will run out, and Brad Ausmus will have the Angels in the playoffs for the first time since 2014. Dark horse candidate – Kevin Cash
Scott Frizzell: I like Thom’s pick of Brad Ausmus. Mike Scioscia had gone stale and in need of replacing, the fresh face of Ausmus will give the club an extra jolt this season. Although their pitching staff is questionable, their lineup is looking rock solid. Dark horse candidate – Rocco Baldelli
John Principe: After being named a finalist in 2018 due to his innovation and his ability to do lots with very little, Kevin Cash should take the next step and win this year. There’s always the possibility of a team exceeding expectations (i.e. 2018 Athletics) and that manager taking the award, but for now Cash seems like the safest bet. Dark horse candidate – Rocco Baldelli
Ben Rolfe: Rick Renteria could have a perfect storm of young talented players starting to reach their peak and a weak division. The White Sox could push the Indians deep this season and even not making the playoffs that would be enough to get Renteria in consideration for the award. Dark horse candidate – Rocco Baldelli
Mike Quilty: Call me a homer but I’m going with Alex Cora
Can Brad Ausmus lead the Angels to the playoffs in his first season at the helm?
National League Manager of the Year
Thom Howland: Bud Black has two top-five MVP possibilities in Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon. They have promising starters in Jon Gray, German Marquez, and Kyle Freeland. Black will help their pitching and lead them to the NL Playoffs, despite being given a slim 17.5% chance of doing so. Dark horse candidate – Dave Martinez
Scott Frizzell: Last year I said the Phillies would surprise people and hang in the race before ultimately fading. This year, they will win the NL East, and with it Gabe Kapler will take home the Manager of the Year Award. Dark horse candidate – David Bell
John Principe: David Bell has a great opportunity in front of him in his first year leading the Reds. A young lineup that has already proved itself may now have some pitching behind it to support this team. A lot of people have the Reds as the breakout team of 2019, myself included. If they can push themselves into playoff contention in that division, or even over .500, it’s going to be hard not giving this award to Bell. Dark horse candidate – Dave Martinez
Ben Rolfe: This is another case of a perfect storm. Gabe Kapler took a lot of stick for some of his decisions last season. However, now he has a young rotation and an incredibly talented lineup at his fingertips. This team could be in contention for the most wins in the NL. Dark horse candidate – Bud Black
Mike Quilty: I think Dave Roberts will get the Dodgers back to the World Series and have one of the best records. After losing one of his key players, that could be enough to net him this award.
The echoes of Lady Gaga’s Poker Face race through the memory banks. The Patriots are in the AFC Championship, 55% less likely, according to odds makers, than the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl. Almost as bad as the Patriots odds against the Falcons down 28-3. Gaga performed at halftime, and the rest was history. These were a fraction of the long odds the Red Sox were looking at resigning Mookie Betts a month ago. Then he signed with the Red Sox for $20 Million last week. Is this the turning point that Hightower’s sack of Matty Ice was?
Mookie Betts Contentious Arbitration Cases
It is well documented that Mookie has gone to the wall with the Red Sox in arbitration thus far. It has been trumpeted by Tony Massarotti, among many others, that the Sox have risked completely alienating Betts by going to arbitration after 2017.
In that case, Betts asked for $10.5 Million, and the Red Sox countered with $7.5 Million. Up to that point in history, only Kris Bryant and Ryan Howard had gotten more than $10 Million in their first year of eligibility for arbitration. They agreed before an arbitration hearing, and both had Rookie Of The Year and NL MVPs under their belts at the time. The Red Sox were most definitely looking at Mookie and saying to themselves “Hey, he hasn’t won any major awards, why give him $10.5 Million?”
Arbitration hearings can be contentious. The player is promoting themselves, while the team is tearing them down. A funny thing happened in this case. The Arbitrator sided with Betts, noting his Silver Slugger in 2016, his Gold Gloves in 2016 and 2017, and his MVP runner up in 2016. Hey, not everyone has to compete against Mike Trout.
A New Deal
But then the news came across the wire on January 11th of this year: Mookie Betts had agreed to one year contract with the Red Sox for $20 Million. This after an MVP season in 2018, when he put to bed all the worries that 2016 was a one year aberration. After a historic 105 win season and 11-3 postseason on the road to a World Series Championship.
The fact that the Red Sox have approached him with long term offers that he has rejected don’t seem so real now. His deal of $20 Million sets a record for players with only 4 years in the big leagues, but it’s still a bargain.
Mike Trout is simply the sickest player on the planet. He finished 2017 leading the majors in WAR for the 5th time. He’s played 7 years full years. If he retired tomorrow he would arguably sail into the Hall Of Fame on the first ballot. That’s the guy Mookie beat out for the 2018 AL MVP. Guess who beat Trout out for 2018 WAR lead? That’s right. Mookie Betts. In 2018 he lead the league in batting average at .346, hit 32 homers, stole 30 bases, and won another gold glove, among many other things. Yes, $20 million is a bargain.
The Future
The bars of Gaga’s A Million Reasons ring out:
” I’ve got a hundred million reasons to walk away But baby, I just need one good one to stay “
Sox fans have a reason to feel good. Because the Sox gave Mookie $20 Million reasons to stay, and by agreeing without going to the wall in arbitration they’ve opened the door to perhaps $300 Million more after 2019.
Is it Alex Cora and a culture of togetherness and support? Maybe it’s JD Martinez and his other teammates that he loves. Could be the joy of working in Fenway Park with all of us screaming his name. Whatever the reason, Mookie has opened the door to a long term deal.
The Red Sox are most certainly going to re-open extension talks with the All-Star right fielder. What could a potential extension look like?
With free agency about the blow up the entire landscape of the MLB for the foreseeable future, could the Red Sox make an unprecedented move? If so, what could shake up things for the next decade? Extending All-Star and MVP candidate Mookie Betts! The five-tool player has shown flashes of greatness. When will Betts get paid?
His career numbers as of now indicate his game is only trending upward. He sports a career .301 batting average, with 105 home runs and 374 runs batted in. to go along with 104 stolen bases. To go along with two Gold Gloves, three straight All-Star selections, and a Silver Slugger award.
Last winter, the Sox signed J.D. Martinez to a five year $110 million contract with numerous player opt-outs after this season. While there are talks of restructuring after this season, these are the present numbers. J.D. has experienced his fair share of struggles throughout his career, making Mookie the better of the two. He will command more in any contract. The rising star is becoming one of the top 3 players in the game.
Similar extensions
In 2015, the Los Angeles Angles extended Mike Trout to a six year, $144.5 million contract. The two-time MVP is one of the other top three players in the league. Now, there is no comparison between Trout and Martinez as an all around player, but offensively you could make some arguments. If Trout could command this money, what can other stars expect to want?
This year, the other top three player becomes the biggest free agency prize in years. Bryce Harper watch has been in effect all season long, with hopes of hints as to where he’ll wind up after free agency is all said and done. He could command anywhere to a rumored ten year $400 million deal. It would be the largest deal in sports history, but that deal could be shrinking after his sub-par .248 batting average. The Washington Nationals star has plenty of options moving forward.
Finally in 2014, the Miami Marlins extended Giancarlo Stanton to a 13 year $325 million contract, the largest contract ever. Now a member of the New York Yankees, Stanton has ten years left on his current contract, while he can opt out at anytime after 2020. The no trade clause is still in effect.
Let’s just suggest his arbitration increases by at least $5.5 million each season. By the time he hits his first free agency, he would make $27 million for one season. If you go by his five-tool ability, it’s easy to conceive that his extension could be in the eight year, $225 million range.
If the two sides decide to go this route will have to wait. The postseason is creeping fast. While the numbers will be different, this is how the market is. While all attention shift to the end of the season, more excitement is soon to come.
We’ve officially entered the sports abyss. You know, that 48-hour black hole following the MLB All-Star Game where there are no sports to be found. The World Cup is over. There are no baseball games in sight. NFL training camp is still a ways off. Hell, even the NBA’s Summer League has concluded.
In these dire times, all we can do is lock ourselves in our rooms, and look ahead to what the second half of the Major League season might bring.
Red Sox fans are surely hoping for more of the same. Boston won an MLB record 68 games prior to the break, and hold a 4.5 game lead over the Yankees for first place in the AL East. There should be plenty of intrigue over the season’s final two and a half months. Here are a few key themes for Sox fans to keep an eye on for 2018’s stretch run:
Will Dave Dombrowski Make a Move?
The trade deadline is looming. The Red Sox may be on pace for 112 wins, but they have their share of holes. Three starting pitchers (Drew Pomeranz, Steven Wright, and Eduardo Rodriguez) are on the disabled list. The bullpen, beyond Craig Kimbrel, is “good enough to get by” at best and “heart-attack inducing” the rest of the time. 2nd and 3rd base have been well below average offensively, and a train-wreck defensively (at least when Rafael Devers and Eduardo Nunez have been in the lineup). The catcher position has been underwhelming as well, though the Sox aren’t alone there.
In short, there’s reason to believe that Boston may try to make an upgrade over the next couple of weeks. The Red Sox have been rumored to be interested in a high-caliber reliever. The Orioles’ Zach Britton could be on the table, and is one big name to watch. Boston has also shown interest in former Yankee Nathan Eovaldi. An augmentation to the pitching staff seems most likely, though whether it’s a major get like Britton or a stopgap solution like Eovaldi remains to be seen. However, don’t sleep on a boost to the lineup as well (The Royals’ Mike Moustakas or Whit Merrifield, anyone?). When you have a first half like the Red Sox did, a big swing is almost always in the works.
Dr. Chris vs. Mr. Sale
The splits are staggering. By almost every metric, Chris Sale is worse in the second half of the season than he is in the first half. For his career, Sale is 69-26 with a 2.66 ERA before the All-Star break, and 32-36 with a 3.28 ERA after it. Last year was no different; after a dominant first half, he showed signs of mortality down the stretch. Everything came to a head in the postseason, when he allowed 9 runs on 13 hits in 9.2 innings over two appearances versus Houston.
Sale will once again be coming off a stellar first half (10-4, 2.23 ERA, 13.1 K/9). We’ll see if he can keep it rolling for the full 162 plus postseason, assuming the Sox make it that far.
Will Jackie Bradley Jr. Get Hot?
JBJ has been nothing short of frustrating this season at the dish. His .210/.297/.345 slash line doesn’t inspire much confidence. Neither does his less-than-robust 73 OPS+. Fortunately for Bradley, his typically excellent defense has managed to keep him in the lineup more often than not.
There are signs that a patented Bradley Jr. hot streak could be around the corner. His .265 BAPIP is its lowest since 2013, despite a career best 38.8 hard-hit percentage (and a career low 9.7 soft-hit percentage). JBJ also showed signs of life towards the end of the first half. In 18 games since June 24th, Bradley is hitting .323//377/.548 with a couple of HR and 15 RBI to boot.
JBJ truly just needs to be mediocre at the plate in order to justify his prescence in the lineup with the way he mans centerfield. However, he’s also capable of going on extreme hot streaks that can buoy an entire offense for a month. Assuming he times that streak right, it could determine the AL East race.
Can Mookie Betts Stay Hot?
Mike Trout is already an all-time great, and the best player in baseball. But Betts has been the top dog this season from the jump. His monster first half (.359/.448/.691 with 23 HR, 18 SB, and a 200 OPS+) has made him the clear AL MVP favorite so far. It has also almost completely erased an underwhelming 2017 season. Check this out:
It truly does feel as though this season is a correction for 2017, and combining both puts him right in line with 2016’s MVP runner-up campaign. The Sox need him to keep that pace, and stay locked in. While the top 5 of the lineup is as formidable of a group as any (Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts, JD Martinez, Mitch Moreland), the bottom part has been suspect to say the least. Boston can’t afford much of a drop-off from their stars, especially Betts.
There’s plenty more to keep an eye on as the Red Sox make their way through the dog days of summer into the fall, of course. But don’t be surprised if these key points loom large through September and October.
The AL MVP Race Consists of Two Players- Mookie and Mike
For years, Mike Trout has reigned supreme as the face of Major League Baseball. He has two MVP awards to his name already. Until this year, no one questioned his status as the best player in baseball. However, Mookie Betts is dominating this year for the first-place Red Sox. The results of the All-Star Game fan voting showed him with 600,000 more votes than Trout. While this is by no means an accurate measure of their skill, the stats show that it’s time to consider Mookie the best player in baseball right now.
Photo via USA Today
(Disclaimer: note that this is RIGHT NOW. Trout has had a far more successful career. Just making it clear.)
The Stats
Let’s get this out of the way right now: yes, Mike Trout has a better WAR than Mookie Betts. Trout’s is 7.1, Betts’ is 5.9. Some people think that is the end-all, be-all of baseball statistics. It is not. That is a conversation for another time, though.
Photo via Getty Images
Let’s start with batting average-the most basic baseball statistic. Mookie Betts currently leads all of baseball in this area, currently hitting .352. Mike Trout is hitting .314. Trout has a higher on-base percentage, beating Mookie .457 to .440. All that means is that more of Trout’s appearances on base come from walks, while Mookie hits more, but draws walks less. Mookie’s slugging percentage is .683 right now, leading the MLB. Trout’s is .618. Betts also leads the league in OPS (on-base plus slugging), with an absurd 1.123, in front of Trout’s 1.075. If you’re looking at solely these numbers, you’re thinking Betts is better, no?
Maybe you’re not a percentage fan. If that’s the case, take a gander at these numbers. Thus far this year, Trout has had 415 plate appearances and Mookie has 341. During these PA’s, Mookie has the same number of hits (102), seven more doubles (25 to 18), and two fewer homers (25 to 23). Not too shabby for having 74 fewer appearances at the plate. This season, Mookie also has just one less RBI, and has scored five more runs. However, Trout has been far better at drawing walks, taking 81 bases on balls to Betts’ 43.
Photo by Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images
Look at the numbers. Mookie Betts is statistically a better baseball player than Mike Trout this season. It doesn’t hurt that number 50 is leading the Sox to the MLB’s best record at 66-29, riding a ten-game win streak. Meanwhile, Trout’s Angels are 48-46. A team’s record is obviously not indicative of an individual’s success (see Machado, Manny), but it’s worth mentioning.
As the league approaches the All-Star break, both players are destroying the rest of the league. The two are in a tier all by themselves, above the rest of the MLB. Don’t discount how good of a baseball player Mike Trout is. It’s crazy what he’s been able to do for years. However, right now, Betts is the best player in baseball. We’ll see who takes home the MVP award at the end of the year.
I have had the privilege of conversing some with former big league pitcher and current color commentator for the Angels Mark Gubicza over the last few months. Ahead of the upcoming three game series between the Red Sox and Angels, Gubie was kind enough to give me some of his time and answer some of my questions leading into the series.
BSE: In April, the Red Sox swept the Angels, outscoring them 27-3 over three games. I think we can both agree a run differential like that isn’t happening again. What do you see as some keys to the series for the Angels to avoid that fate?
Mark Gubicza: For the Angels it’s really simple, keep the ball in the yard. Red Sox hit a lot of home runs last series.
BSE: Taking a look at the pitching matchups, anything stand out from that grouping? Any particular intriguing matchup?
Mark Gubicza: Heaney vs Porcello matchup looks real good. Heaney has thrown the ball very well and Porcello is back to his Cy Young form of two years ago.
BSE: I agree, I think that will be a good pitcher’s duel. With the way Heaney is pitching I think he will give the Red Sox troubles. A big weakness of the Sox right now is their struggle vs lefties. What are weaknesses of the Angels the Red Sox might be able to capitalize on?
Mark Gubicza: The Angels have also struggled to score runs vs lefties. Mike Trout and Justin Upton are keys to this series.
BSE: Yes, Mike Trout is the best player in the game. Part of what elevates him even more above everyone else is not only his hitting and defense, but his ability to steal lots of bases. As of June 2nd he was 13-13 stealing bags. Since then, Trout has gotten on first base a whopping 44 times in 20 games, yet has not stolen a single base. This is curious to me, such a weapon being shelved. Are the Angels telling him not to run much?
Mark Gubicza: Trout hurt his index finger, so that is why the stolen bases have slowed down.
BSE: Yes, he has not been playing in the field lately. Might we see him in the field at all this series?
Mark Gubicza: He may play as of tomorrow in the outfield.
Trout has played at DH the past six games after spraining his right index finger.
BSE: Are there any under the radar players for the Angels to keep an eye on this series?
Mark Gubicza: Andrelton Simmons is getting hot again. He could be a huge key for the Halos.
BSE: You and Victor Rojas seem to have a good time in the booth, which I appreciate having enjoyed Don Orsillo and Jerry Remy together for years. I caught your stormtroopers bit and more recently your Snow Miser and Heat Miser outfits. That was fantastic! Do you aim to keep things light and have a good time in the booth?
Mark Gubicza: Try to inform, educate and entertain every night! Love to have fun.
A Christmas in June celebration for the Angels broadcast booth on June 22. Mark Gubicza on the left as Snow Miser, Victor Rojas on the right as Heat Miser.
BSE: That’s the way to be! Do you think we might be seeing the last or close to last of Albert Pujols visit to Fenway? Or do you think he plays out his contract?
Mark Gubicza: Albert is still very productive. He has the best batting average with RISP on the team since May 22. Or at least close to the best. He’ll be back in Boston for a few more years. He has a great chance to pick up his 2000th career RBI this year.
BSE: Still great at bringing those men home. A true legend, to me he’s probably the best right-handed hitter in the last few decades. Rivaled some by Frank Thomas, Miguel Cabrera and maybe Manny Ramirez, though I think Manny is a bit behind.
Mark Gubicza: Agreed.
Since the start of last season, Pujols is batting just .244 with a .286 OBP. However, he can still bring men home, driving in 143 runs during that same span.
BSE: On a side note towards your own career, who were some hitters you hated to face?
Mark Gubicza: Don Mattingly and Ken Griffey Jr.
BSE: Some you loved to face, whether because you had great success against them or whatever reason?
Mark Gubicza: I had success, and I don’t know why, but had success vs Kirby Puckett and Dave Winfield.
BSE: Couple tough outs right there. Were there any pitchers you got a little more amped up to face off against?
Mark Gubicza: Randy Johnson and Roger Clemens.
BSE: I appreciate you taking the time to answer some questions. Hope you enjoy some more of my tweets, I love the history of the game and always enjoy hearing back about particular games.
Mark Gubicza: Talk to you later my friend. Have a good night and hope to see you sometime soon.
In the first of three ballot updates before the big all star game, let’s see who holds the edge, and who gets snubbed after update 1.
In the National league’s first ballot update, the Atlanta Braves stood out by far. Having three players leading in the votes thus far. Here’s how the ballot is shaping up after the first ballot update.
New to this year, the manager for the national league team will select the designated hitter for that team, the fans cannot vote for it.
For the american league squad, the powerful duo of Betts and Martinez are no doubters thus far.
First base: Jose Abreu ( 267,812 votes) Second base: Jose Altuve ( 701,236 votes) Third Base: Jose Ramirez ( 443,234 votes) Shortstop: Manny Machado (321,887 votes) Catcher: Gary Sanchez ( 336,280 votes) Outfielder 1: Mookie Betts ( 748,872 votes Leads all players) Outfielder 2: Mike Trout ( 639,882 votes) Outfielder 3: Aaron Judge ( 541,993 votes) Designated Hitter: J.D Martinez ( 513,415 votes)
The american league race is shaping up as a lot of people thought it would. The next two ballot updates are announced on June 18 and 19! Stay tuned to how it all unfolds right here as the all star races continue to heat up.
With the Major League Baseball season almost upon us (finally), our baseball writers have collaborated to make our picks for the coming season. In this article we detail who will win the major awards for 2018; Most Valuable Player, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year for both leagues. We will follow this one up with a part two article covering our picks for the division winners and the postseason.
American League Most Valuable Player
Scott Frizzell – Mike Trout is my pick for this year’s MVP winner because he is awfully hard to pick against. Trout is the best player in baseball, and his first six seasons match up pretty favorably with just about any player in the game’s history. He could be a top ten player of all-time once he hangs them up. Dark Horse Candidate – Francisco Lindor
Matt O’Halloran – Mike Trout seems like the best pick, as he has been for the past five years. He won the award in 2014 and 2016, and has been close to winning it in the other years. The Angels missed the Wild Card by five games in 2017, and a playoff run combined with a healthy season should guarantee a third MVP for the outfielder. Runner up – Jose Altuve
Kyle Porch – Mookie Betts will win MVP this year because he has a lot to prove. Simply put, he got robbed of the award two years ago by Mike Trout, and he needs the numbers to get the extension he wants. With a third straight gold glove award in sight, the five tool player can rip it up offensively to which we have seen the last two seasons.
Justin Gonzalez – It has always been Mike Trout’s award to lose ever since he stepped foot in the MLB. Widely renowned as baseball’s best player, Trout seems to be catapulting himself towards a first ballot hall of fame vote already at the age of 26. Last year was seen as a down year for him since he only played in 114 games but was still able to post a 1.071 OPS, 33 HR, 72 RBI, .306 batting average while swiping 22 bags. Now batting in the best lineup he has ever been in, it is time for Trout to show us what he is truly capable of and all we can do is sit back and enjoy the show.
David Latham – It’s Altuve’s world, and we’re all just living in it. I’ve been a huge fan of Altuve ever since he entered the league, and outside of Mike Trout, there’s no other player I’d rather have on my team. He’s everything you want in a baseball player: he can hit for average, power, he’s a great athlete, and he gives 110% every single play.
Brandon Fazzolari – Carlos Correa is in the middle of a lineup that tests pitchers every step of the way, setting Correa up to produce huge numbers.
National League Most Valuable Player
Scott Frizzell – Bryce Harper has more or less become the player he was supposed to become over the last three seasons. Last year, his season was derailed by injury, but he was putting up big numbers before he went down. Now entering his first contract season, expect Harper to play as well as he ever has. I think numbers similar to his 2015 campaign are within reach. Dark Horse Candidate – Christian Yelich
Matt O’Halloran – Nolan Arenado has been consistently great during his career, but never really talked about. It could be the Colorado market or blind fans chalking up the success to Coors, but that silence changes this year. Arenado is in a contract year, which should bolster his already impressive stats. The young third baseman is an outstanding defender and great hitter (even out of Coors). The Rockies made the wild card game last year, and another postseason berth combined with impressive numbers should get him the MVP. Runner up– Corey Seager
Kyle Porch – Nolan Arenado will win the NL MVP award simply because of a continuation from last season. The Rockies third baseman will continue on his upward trend while earning a massive payday next season.
Justin Gonzalez – It must really suck to be Harper. I mean think about it: he has luscious hair, a beard that a lumberjack would approve of, a career WAR that is one point higher than his actual age (26 over 25), and is heading into one of the biggest contract years ever. Okay, maybe that doesn’t suck, but what I was getting at is imagine a baseball world without Mike Trout. We would be talking about Harper like he was the second coming of Ken Griffey Jr. I believe that this contract year for Harper is what will put him on the map clearly as the second best baseball player in the world.
David Latham – There are very few baseball players more talented than Washington Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper. Another guy that can do it all, Harper is set to hit unrestricted free agency at the end of 2018. Look for Harper to have an absolutely crazy 2018 before breaking the bank in 2019.
Brandon Fazzolari – Bryce Harper is a versatile performer that can hit for average and power from the left side. Barring injury, this award should be his.
Photo by Patrick Smith
American League Cy Young Award
Scott Frizzell – I like to dig a little deeper on AL Cy Young oftentimes, so my pick is going to be Lance McCullers this season. McCullers just needs to stay healthy, as he has never pitched more than 22 games in a season. His first two seasons he had a 3.22 ERA, and he struck out 11.8 batters per nine in 2016. When he went down with an injury last June, McCullers had a 2.58 ERA and 10.4 k/9. He pitched well in the postseason and so far this spring he has been lights out. Dark Horse Candidate – James Paxton
Matt O’Halloran – Justin Verlander posted a 1.06 regular season ERA after he was traded to the Astros on August 31st. The ace was a big part of their world series run and should put up impressive numbers again. He won the award in 2011, and was a runner up in 2016. He has been consistently dominant since he entered the league in 2006, and there is no reason to believe that will stop. Runner up– Chris Sale
Kyle Porch – Chris Sale will give hitters deja vu of his 2017 season to win the award. While working out with Jason Groome over the offseason, he has built muscle and the velocity has improved while under-exerting himself during spring training.
Justin Gonzalez – The 2017 Cy Young award runner up has some unfinished business to take care of in 2018. He got his inaugural Red Sox season out of the way and is looking to take back what was clearly his in the first half of the season. Sporting the highest career SO/W (strikeout per win) figure in MLB history, Sale does two things extremely well: strikeout batters and win games. Pitching in front of a better lineup than last season, he has a chance to have a career year. Pair all of this with his longevity boosting workout regimen and he is really in line for another spectacular season.
David Latham – For the first four months of the 2017 season, this award was Sale’s to lose. Unfortunately, fatigue set in and Sale had a rough end of the season. He ended up finishing second for the award, behind Cleveland Indians ace Corey Kluber.
Brandon Fazzolari – Chris Sale is the consummate power pitcher. He shows no signs of slowing down in his prime.
National League Cy Young Award
Scott Frizzell – Sticking with my theme of underdogs for Cy Young, I am taking Noah Syndergaard to win in the NL this year. Syndergaard isn’t quite the underdog McCullers is, but anyone not named Kershaw or Scherzer in the National League seems like a bit of one. After missing most of last season, Syndergaard is healthy and strong for this season. He came out firing 100 miles per hour early in spring. Dark Horse Candidate – Aaron Nola
Matt O’Halloran – I could have flipped a coin between Kershaw and Max Scherzer. It is a two man race barring a major injury because they are the only best pitchers in the NL and whoever is third is a distant third. I predict Kershaw just because the Dodgers should finish ahead of the Nationals in the standings. He won the award in 2011, 2013, 2014, and was a runner up in 2017. Runner up – Max Scherzer
Kyle Porch – Clayton Kershaw will continue his dominance by winning another Cy Young award. The Dodgers pitcher could opt out and with his 4th award he can get a huge payday.
Justin Gonzalez – Want to read a preposterous sentence? Clayton Kershaw could possibly have a better career than Trout when it is all said and done. Everyone knows that he is the best pitcher in baseball (you do know that, right?) but just how good is he? Well for starters, he hasn’t had an ERA over 2.50 since 2012 (2.53) and has only had an ERA over 3.00 ONCE in TEN seasons (his rookie year). Get my point? He already has a career WAR of 60.6 and is heading into a contract season. His recent injuries would be the only thing that would stop him from winning the award for the 4th time, but then again, injuries could happen to anybody on this list. I would be absolutely floored if Kershaw didn’t run away with the award yet again.
David Latham – Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball, and it’s not even that close. Until someone dethrones him as the best, this award will always be his to lose.
Brandon Fazzolari – Joining most others, I am picking Clayton Kershaw to win this award. It’s hard to believe Kershaw is still just 30 years old because he has been so good for so long.
Clayton Kershaw during the first inning against the Colorado Rockies, Wednesday, April 19, 2017. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)
American League Rookie of the Year
Scott Frizzell – Shohei Ohtani seemed to be the clear favorite for this award before his lousy spring training. I wanted to go elsewhere with this pick anyways, Ohtani was too easy. Willie Calhoun of the Rangers is starting the season in the minors, but I think he will be up by the end of April. A former fourth round pick, Calhoun batted .300 with 31 home runs in AAA last season. In a hitter’s paradise in Arlington, Calhoun should make his mark this season. Dark Horse Candidate – Austin Hays
Kyle Porch – Willie Calhoun has great speed not only in the outfield, but on the base path as well. If he can continue his hot hitting from the minors, he should be a lock for Rookie of The Year.
Justin Gonzalez – Eloy Jimenez ranks as the number four prospect in all of baseball and seems to be overshadowed by another soon to be star, Yoan Moncada. Originally from the Cubs organization before being traded to the ChiSox in exchange for Jose Quintana, Jimenez seems to be a player that can really be a pivotal piece towards the White Sox rebuild. The 21 year old has an eye-popping OPS of 2.381 in his first Spring Training. Jimenez recently got optioned to double-A, but there should not be any reason why the White Sox wouldn’t promote him at some point during the season.
David Latham – If Rafael Devers were eligible, I’d pick him here. However, he’s not, so the award goes to Texas Rangers outfielder Willie Calhoun. Calhoun is a power bat on a popular organization that should be average at least, so why not him?
Brandon Fazzolari – There’s a lot to like about the multi-talented Ohtani, but mostly that he’s in a lineup alongside Mike Trout.
Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images
National League Rookie of the Year
Scott Frizzell – It is hard to pick against Ronald Acuña at this point. He will start the season in the minor leagues, but that is only to extend his years under team control. Acuña will be up before long and he is one of the most talented prospects to come up in sometime. Acuña has some all-around ability to his game in the vein of Mike Trout. In three stops last season. Acuña batted .325, hit 21 home runs and stole 44 bases. So far this spring, he has batted .432 with 4 homers and 4 steals. Dark Horse Candidate – A.J. Minter
Kyle Porch – Ronald Acuña has flown through the Braves minor league system. Their number 1 prospect is expected to branch out in the majors this season.
Justin Gonzalez – J.P. Crawford seems to be one of the more overlooked players to get excited about in today’s baseball world. In a league where shortstop seems to be a position abundant with raw talent, it is hard to get noticed. However, Crawford will be the everyday shortstop for a Phillies team that has suddenly become decent. The acquisition of Carlos Santana, a full season of Rhys Hoskins and a hopeful season for Maikel Franco will really help Crawford out from the get go. His patience at the plate along with his ability to hit to all fields as well as his plus defending makes him one of the early front-runners for the NL Rookie of the Year.
David Latham – The Dodgers will be good this year, and Walker Buehler should be a big part of that. He won’t be the top arm in the rotation, which honestly should help his win total. He’s got a lot of talent, making it to the majors after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2016.
Brandon Fazzolari – If spring training is any indication, Acuña should win this award in a cakewalk.
